September 15, 2008

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Jeff Liszt / Marc Silverman
Re: Summary of Polling Results in Florida CD-10

Bill Young has a difficult time translating personal goodwill into vote support in this difficult political
environment, and has a hard time reaching 50% on the current vote. A well-funded and well-organized
candidate like Bob Hackworth has an excellent opportunity to win this seat. Young is running for re-election in
the most difficult political environment he has ever faced: These voters prefer a Democratic candidate on the
generic ballot, they are extremely unfavorable towards George Bush and Republicans in Congress, the prefer
Obama for President, and they trust Democrats more on the most important issues facing the country.
Bill Young struggles to reach 50% on the current vote
• Young leads the current vote, but is under 50% (46% Young / 29% Hackworth). Even including
leaners, Young doesn’t get over 50% of the vote (50% Young / 33% Hackworth). This is the most
important indicator of vulnerability in an incumbent.
• The undecided vote is going to break heavily for Hackworth. Undecided voters prefer a Democratic
candidate for Congress by a 2:1 margin (35% Democrat / 18% Republican).
Hackworth has strong expansion potential and leads on the informed vote
• After voters hear basic information about both candidates, Hackworth overtakes Young and leads by 4
points (47% Hackworth / 43% Young). This strong movement shows the strength of Hackworth’s
profile and basic message. If Hackworth has the resources to be competitive in paid communications, he
has an excellent chance to win this seat.
This is the most difficult political environment Bill Young has ever faced
• Nearly two-thirds (65%) of voters give President Bush an unfavorable rating, and 51% are very
unfavorable. Barack Obama leads John McCain by 6 points here (46% Obama / 40% McCain).
• A majority of voters have an unfavorable view of Republicans in Congress (34% favorable / 56%
unfavorable) while voters have a net-favorable view of Democrats in Congress (46% favorable / 43%
unfavorable).
• Dissatisfaction with Bush and Congressional Republicans is making this district increasingly
Democratic. Democrats now hold an 8-point advantage over Republicans on the generic ballot (42%
Democrat / 34% Republican).
• Voters believe Democrats will do a better job on the issues they care about most. Democrats lead on
standing up for the middle class (59% Democrats / 29% Republicans), ending the war in Iraq (53%
Democrats / 29% Republicans), healthcare (54% Democrats / 25% Republicans), energy independence
(51% Democrats / 30% Republicans), bringing down gas prices (41% Democrats / 29% Republicans),
and fixing the economy (46% Democrats / 38% Republicans).
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Florida CD-10.
Interviews were conducted between September 7-11, 2008. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned
geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.