Nickel

Fundamentals
Nickel (Metric tonne)
World mine production
Content of concentrate
Content of ore and ore milled
Content of laterite ore
Content of ferronickel produced
Content of nickel sulfate
Content, unspecified and/or undifferentiated
World plant production
Of which:
Ferronickel
Metal
Oxide sinter
Chemicals
Unspecified
World Refined Nickel Consumption
Refined Nickel Balance

2008
1,610,000
1,342,000

2007
1,660,000
1,436,000

2006
1,580,000
487,000
594,000
336,000
10,900
80
157,000
1,350,000
302,000
761,000
102,000
21,700
165,000

1,299,000
43000

India nickel consumption (primary)

Indian Imports *
Indian Exports *

1,341,000
95000

1,405,000
-91000

33000
22785.7
1679.7

31000
23251.9
1673.4

Inventory levels
LME (tonnes) year end

78390

47946

6648

Average daily Volatility (India Spot)

3.2%

2.5%

2.6%

Source: USGS, INSG, DGCIS, GFMS base metal report;MCX, LME; * data is for financial year

2005
1,500,000
453,000
563,000
327,000
8,100
199
146,000
1,300,000

2004
1,420,000
427,000
538,000
301,000
5,300
130
148,000
1,280,000

295,000
740,000
101,000
20,000
149,000

278,000
710,000
104,000
24,700
162,000

1,244,000
10000

1,262,000
-18000

28000
18828.6
1951.6

27000
26450.8
1041.9

35742

20892

4.6%

3.4%

Economic parameters impacting nickel prices

2008

2007

2006

2005

Real GDP (% change)

US
Japan
Eurozone
China
India
OECD

1.1
-0.3
1
9
7.3
1

2
1.9
2.3
11.5
8.9
2.6

2.9
2.8
2.6
11.1
9.7
3.2

3.1
2.4
1.4
10.4
9
2.7

Consumer Price inflation (% change)

US
Japan
Eurozone
China
India
OECD

1
0.5
1
3
5
1

2.5
1.4
3
5.9
7
3

2.7
0.3
2.2
2
6.7
2.2

3.4
0.3
2.2
1.4
5.3
2.1

Industrial Output (YoY % change )

US
Japan
Eurozone
China
India

-8.9
-20.7
-12.2
5.7
-0.2

1.7
1.5
1.4
17.4
8

1.5
5.4
5.3
14.7
13.4

2.9
3.4
2.5
16.5
5.7

Interest rates (%)

US ( Fed Funds Target)
Japan (12 month T-Bills)
Eurozone ( Refinance rates )
China ( Lending Rate )
India ( Repo rate )

0.25
0.25
2.5
5.31
6.5

4.25
0.58
4
7.47
7.75

5.25
0.62
3.5
6.12
7.25

4.25
0.07
2.25
5.58
6.25

Money Supply ( YoY % change)

US
Japan
Eurozone
China
India

9.6
0.7
7.5
17.82
19.6

5.6
0.7
11.6
16.72
22.84

5.4
-0.6
9.9
16.9
19.33

4.1
0.3
7.4
17.6
17.79

Equity Index (points)

US ( DOW JONES)
India (SENSEX)

8,776
9,647

13,265
20,287

12,463
13,787

10,718
9,398

OECD Indicators
OECD Total Monetary Aggr. & Comp. Broad Money Index
OECD Total Purchasing power Index Manufacturing
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups Total Energy IPB

127.3
113.83
127.8

116.9
106.9
113.7

107.6
103.7
109.3

100
100
100

Source: OECD, IMF, CPM gold yearbook, World Bank

2004
3.6
4
2
10.1
7.9
3.6

2.7
-2.3
2.1
3.2
4.6
1.8

3.3
1.7
0.8
14.4
8.9

2.25
0
2
5.58
6

5.7
1
6.6
14.63
13.49

10,783
6,603

93.9
96.16
89.4

Nickel Prices

Month
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05

Open
504.1
545
576
515
623.8
764.4
906
795.1
960
935
1160
1183.5
1259
1086.5
1040.5
1088
1277
1230
1217
1279
1495
1941.1
2105
2007.8
1891.1
1945
1504
1498
1429.8
1408.3
1515
1287.5
976.1
1080
905
675
676.9
699.1
705
585
613
624
608
660
667.5

MCX future prices

Rs./kg
High
Low
533.5
478.3
585
462
654.8
498.1
540.8
442.3
649.3
476.2
769
447.8
906.5
721
935
736.6
974.5
763
1073.5
914.5
1180
927
1205.5
1127.5
1416
1126
1275
1042
1203
1038.5
1104.5
998
1350
1042
1306
1188
1362
1101.7
1286
1035
1519.9
1223.4
2009
1430.2
2185.5
1925
2253.9
1953.9
2247
1790
1990
1925
1855
1355
1603
1433
1547.3
1267.3
1640
1327.1
1524.2
1205
1618.5
1210
1380
976.1
1081
844.1
1064
821
832.7
675
698
626
750
645
705
680
718
543
690
538
689
597
675
585
678.5
630
750.5
609

Last
479.3
488.6
537.6
522.8
484.8
556.5
741.9
887.8
791.6
930.5
942.5
1169.5
1190.5
1258
1084
1017.5
1047.5
1212.9
1232.9
1237.9
1275.7
1460.8
2073.2
2066.5
1982.8
1967.6
1727
1512.9
1539
1420.2
1430.5
1581.3
1324.3
1031.2
1064
827.9
679.5
666
695.8
637
538
597
658.5
643
639

Average spot prices

Mumbai (Rs./kg)
Monthly Average
495.8
512.5
550.8
470.5
526.3
579.0
807.2
819.2
863.4
967.9
1077.0
1149.5
1260.9
1109.3
1089.2
1030.3
1211.2
1228.5
1195.3
1120.1
1350.6
1700.7
2130.9
2133.3
2036.7
1817.1
1626.6
1543.5
1439.7
1491.9
1394.6
1445.0
1234.2
954.0
956.8
801.7
663.0
665.8
642.9
611.8
544.8
555.9
624.8
650.6
635.4
705.3

May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04

701
680
711
655
642
615
645
735
610
650
694
575.5
-

773
739
718
732
645
688
658
740
704
676
745
692
-

Source: Respective exchanges websites, RBI

690
611
608
627
570
585
611
600
578
605
650
575.5
-

735
734
714
719
637
688
655
621
702
602
650.5
688
-

738.8
711.8
711.7
673.9
642.0
625.2
643.3
668.8
-

Open
9975
11180
11700
10000
12675
16050
20250
18599
21950
22290
28725
29750
31500
27650
26650
27450
32380
30849
29800
31450
36450
46100
48000
45000
40800
36500
33350
33750
31400
29375
28000
25400
21400
21500
19175
15200
14900
15050
13450
12750
12125
13510
14900
14200
14400
16150

LME 3 month future prices

(USD/tonne)
High
Low
10420
9425
12051
9250
13550
10180
11900
9000
13125
9720
16400
8850
20350
15588
21525
17370
22599
18049
24950
21400
29149
21355
30325
27900
35150
28000
32050
26250
30750
26350
27800
25177
34250
26752
33490
29701
34500
26612.5
31450
24800
37500
30199
50448.5
35350
51800
44900
50200
44950
48500
39000
41990
34350
38950
30000
34950
31999
34100
28650
32625
28000
29450
25500
29950
24175
26900
21400
21750
17050
23050
18600
20250
15150
15520
14450
15802
14625
15500
13300
14451
12599
13225
11480
13602
11650
15350
12825
15450
13899
15050
13850
16901
14325

Close
9850
10000
11200
11700
10200
12100
15850
20225
18350
21950
22100
28550
29755
31500
27400
26300
27095
32050
30500
29800
31445
36200
46000
47800
44800
41395
37000
33325
33950
31350
29350
28800
25500
21350
21900
19275
15250
14950
15225
13500
12800
12020
13500
14850
14250
14590

Spot prices
RBI rate
LME Cash (USD/tonne)
USDNIR
Monthly Average
9707
51.23
10404
49.22
11285
48.83
9638
48.64
10698
49.00
12133
48.64
17840
45.56
18917
42.94
20102
42.84
22539
42.82
25854
42.13
28756
40.02
31208
40.36
27711
39.73
27646
39.37
25921
39.44
30600
39.44
31017
39.51
29526
40.34
27748
40.82
33417
40.42
41705
40.77
52161
40.78
50249
42.15
46303
44.03
41171
44.16
36795
44.33
34576
44.63
32100
44.85
32693
45.47
30117
46.12
30728
46.54
26569
46.46
20747
46.06
21065
45.41
17932
44.95
14893
44.48
14975
44.33
14550
44.40
13426
45.65
12111
45.73
12397
44.82
14223
43.92
14887
43.63
14571
43.54
16154
43.59

15850
15875
16250
14450
14650
14400
13700
16200
12400
13625
15200
12200
11200
13950

16851
16500
16350
16250
15100
15550
14700
17200
16500
14375
16000
15400
12300
14800

15299
14850
15225
14400
13700
12350
13300
12450
11850
12250
13600
11780
10400
10650

16250
15850
15900
16250
14525
14875
14260
13840
16425
12400
13675
15175
12175
11150

16920
16136
16185
15345
14501
13769
14045
14404
13271
13680
15023
13534
11118
12848

43.49
43.74
43.69
43.68
43.76
43.98
45.13
45.78
46.10
46.34
46.04
45.52
45.26
43.93

Nickel Trading Activity

MCX
Month
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05

Volume
326281
222376
324454
203662
206015
216060
148790
188189
186886
161359
113308
81540
147596
170479
198392
121275
117293
244786
250183
311290
315797
293894
144002
115707
128971
76841
49710
14522
1307
688
288
288
1281
2109
356
67
7590
1824
662
944
879
1013
370
224
680
4950
690

LME
Open Interest
16168
4650
2263
3948
3039
3571
6332
3395
10310
5512
4291
2169
2152
4324
4466
5055
5294
4987
4288
5999
8279
3554
2764
1228
1354
710
527
74
10
10
4
0
1
23
13
10
8
25
14
3
1
0
0
1
16
17
0

Volume
429271
381938
528894
439020
405158
537443
509484
408295
393348
446347
432582
443789
349587
447305
353678
329927
362858
342322
274793
310368
266692
347708
278647
282269
268325
291690
353496
292342
235072
312979
264161
340962
357523
397067
379303
471598
409840
310083
328888
-

Open Interest
112738
124755
120817
117669
117387
126983
118006
121245
113786
107684
103674
97002
97320
95674
91977
88395
84517
77624
74882
54439
49576
45144
44480
41779
46467
45936
49227
48765
47665
47660
47852
47247
53816
55640
62328
66705
66611
57826
56220
-

Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04

75
2811
522
860
176
87
102
151
210
276
42
0

0
6
32
0
5
5
8
5
5
13
4
0

Source: Respective exchanges websites

Note: Vol and OI in lots; Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month; Cummulative open interest in all contracts at end

n interest in all contracts at end of the month.

Nickel Graphs
Graph-1
Nickel Mine Production (2008e)

Russia

17%

Canada

37%
16%

Indonesia
Australia

13%

6%
11%

New Caledonia6
Others

Source: USGS; e estimates

Graph-2
Nickel Consumption (2008e)

8%

Western Europe

10%

30%

China
Other Asia

12%

Japan
13%

North America
27%
Others

Source: GFMS Base Metal s Report; e estimates

Graph-3
Nickel Prices, Consumption & Steel Production

Prices

3000

40000

2600

32000

2200

24000

1800

16000

1400

8000

Nickel Prices, Consumption & Steel Production

Prices

3000

40000

2600

32000

2200

24000

1800

16000

1400

8000

1000
Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Average LME prices USD/ton (RHS)

Steel global production (0000s tonnes)

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

0
Dec-08

Nickel Consumption (000s tonnes)

Source: INSG, IISF, LME

Prices

40000
32000
24000
16000
8000

Dec-07

Prices

40000
32000
24000
16000
8000
0
Dec-08

(000s tonnes)