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Canara Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 1QFY12 1,793 1,270 726 4QFY11 1,973 1,695 899 % chg (qoq) (9.1) (25.0) (19.3) 1QFY11 1,728 1,483 1,013 % chg (yoy) 3.8 (14.4) (28.4)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 20,404 1.0 844/458 1,09,145 10 18,197 5,482 CNBK.BO CBK@IN
`461 `516
12 Months
For 1QFY2012, Canara Bank posted a disappointing set of results with a sharp compression in NIM and continuance of high slippages. Net profit declined by 28.4% yoy to `726cr, well below our as well as streets estimates. We upgrade the stock to Accumulate, owing to its cheaper valuations post the sharp correction. NIM dips; Slippages remain high: For 1QFY2012, the banks overall business growth moderated in-line with peers, with advances growing by just 1.2% qoq (up 23.7% yoy) and deposits increasing by 2.1% qoq (up 25.7% yoy). CASA deposit growth rate fell sharply to 9.7% yoy, further weakening the deposit franchise of the bank. As a result, the calculated global CASA ratio came off sharply by ~300bp qoq to 25.4%. With the decline in CASA ratio, the banks cost of deposits increased steeply by 136bp yoy and led to a 59bp yoy decline in reported NIM to 2.4%. Fee income growth was sluggish at just 6.1% yoy. The banks profitability during 1QFY2012 was also impacted by additional provisions of `285cr for complying with the recent hike in provisioning requirements and reversal of accrued interest income of `210cr on slippages recognised during the quarter. Slippages ratio for the quarter remained high at 2.6% (1.2% in 1QFY2011) but moderated from 4.4% witnessed in 4QFY2011. The sharp rise in slippages over the past couple of quarters can partly be attributed to switchover to system-based NPA recognition. The bank is better placed than its peers on the migration front, having migrated all accounts above `2lakhs. Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) declined by ~350bp qoq to 69.5%. Outlook and valuation: Over the past three months, the stock has underperformed the Sensex as well as Bank Nifty by 22%, primarily on concerns of asset quality. Incremental slippages are expected to moderate considerably going forward, as the bank has already migrated a major chunk (accounts above `2lakhs) of its advances. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `516, owing to its cheaper valuations at 0.9x FY2013E ABV. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.7 11.5 15.0 5.8
3m (5.7) (28.0)
FY2010 5,681 20.4 3,021 45.8 2.4 73.7 6.3 1.7 1.2 26.8
FY2011 7,823 37.7 4,026 33.2 2.7 90.9 5.1 1.2 1.3 26.4
FY2012E 7,612 (2.7) 3,562 (11.5) 2.2 80.4 5.7 1.0 1.0 18.4
FY2013E 8,683 14.1 3,831 7.5 2.1 86.5 5.3 0.9 0.9 17.2
Varun Varma 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 7,181 5,483 1,633 64 0 5,388 1,793 527 604 174 (77) 66 364 2,320 1,050 668 382 1,270 345 285 60 926 200 726 21.6 6,418 4,823 1,521 73 1 4,445 1,973 933 951 249 (18) 327 375 2,906 1,211 783 428 1,695 546 541 5 1,149 250 899 21.8 11.9 13.7 7.4 (11.8) (82.8) 21.2 (9.1) (43.5) (36.5) (30.2) 327.6 (79.7) (3.0) (20.2) (13.3) (14.7) (10.9) (25.0) (36.9) (47.3) 1,098.2 (19.4) (20.0) (19.3) (16)bp 5,161 3,794 1,319 48 0 3,433 1,728 734 510 164 224 88 258 2,462 978 661 317 1,483 220 130 90 1,263 250 1,013 19.8 39.1 44.5 23.8 34.8 11.1 56.9 3.8 (28.2) 18.4 6.1 (24.7) 40.8 (5.8) 7.3 1.0 20.3 (14.4) 56.6 119.2 (33.8) (26.7) (20.0) (28.4) 181bp
Actual 1,793 527 2,320 1,050 1,270 345 926 200 726
Estimates 2,071 686 2,756 1,073 1,683 411 1,273 255 1,018
Var (%) (13.4) (23.2) (15.8) (2.2) (24.5) (16.1) (27.3) (21.4) (28.7)
1QFY12 215,015 300,150 71.6 15,193 60,912 76,105 25.4 13.4 9.6 7.1 10.5 7.9 8.7 6.5 2.4 45.2 3,606 1.7 2,871 1.3 69.5 2.6 0.3
4QFY11 212,467 293,973 72.3 24,500 58,617 83,117 28.3 15.4 10.9 5.8 9.7 7.7 8.1 5.4 3.0 41.7 3,089 1.5 2,347 1.1 73.0 4.4 0.7
%chg (qoq) 1.2 2.1 (64)bp (38.0) 3.9 (8.4) (292)bp (201)bp (128)bp 125bp 77bp 14bp 53bp 113bp (57)bp 357bp 16.7 22bp 22.3 23bp (346)bp (177)bp (35)bp
1QFY11 173,794 238,855 72.8 15,785 53,565 69,350 29.0 12.4 8.1 5.7 9.4 7.5 7.9 5.3 3.0 39.7 2,549 1.5 1,729 1.0 78.0 1.2 0.2
%chg (yoy) 23.7 25.7 (113)bp (3.8) 13.7 9.7 (368)bp 93bp 149bp 136bp 115bp 32bp 75bp 124bp (59)bp 549bp 41.5 21bp 66.0 34bp (848)bp 135bp 14bp
4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 29,656 37,684 31,572 2.7 (1.8) 8.8 (23.9)
1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 23,117 31,597 98,884 20,196 31.8 17.1 24.9 19.0 23.7
1.2 173,794
On the deposits side, the volatile current account deposits declined sharply by 38.0% qoq (down 3.8% yoy). Even saving account deposits growth was moderate at 13.7% yoy (up 3.9% qoq). Overall CASA deposits growth moderated to sub-10% levels as compared to 21.8% yoy growth in 4QFY2011. Calculated CASA ratio compressed sharply by 292bp qoq (down 368bp yoy) to 25.4%.
30.0
70.0
11.9 11.6
29.0
28.9
29.0
28.3
2.6 1.8
1.3 4.3
7.8 5.7
1.2 2.1
3.0
68.0
25.4
22.5 20.0
With the decline in CASA ratio, the banks cost of deposits increased steeply by 125bp qoq and led to a 57bp qoq compression in reported NIM to 2.4%. Management had guided for NIM of over 3% for FY2012 in 4QFY2011. However, on a conservative basis, we are building in a ~30bp decline in NIM for FY2012 and a ~15bp further fall for FY2013, considering the higher interest rate regime and the relatively weak liability franchise of the bank.
1QFY12 4QFY11 174 (77) 66 364 527 604 249 (18) 327 375 933 951
% chg (qoq) 1QFY11 (30.2) 327.6 (79.7) (3.0) (43.5) (36.5) 164 224 88 258 734 510
1.2
1.5
1.2
4.4
2.6
1.5 1.0
1.5 1.1
1.4 1.1
1.5 1.1
1.7 1.3
60.0
39.7
43.4
43.0
41.7
45.2
38.0
0.5 -
Investment concerns
Weak liability franchise likely to accentuate NIM pressures
The bank has a relatively weaker liability profile with a calculated CASA base at 25.4%. In fact, in 1QFY2012, saving account deposits growth moderated to 13.7% yoy from 17.5% yoy in 4QFY2011. Overall CASA deposits growth moderated to sub-10% levels at 9.7% as compared to 21.8% yoy growth in 4QFY2011. The bank has a relatively higher proportion of more costly bulk deposits and CDs at ~25% of deposits, which makes the bank more vulnerable to a faster rise in cost of funds in the current rising interest rate scenario. Margin pressures were evident from the ~60bp sequential NIM reduction (partly on account of reversal of accrued interest on NPAs recognised during the quarter) in 1QFY2012. Accordingly, we have built in a ~50bp dip in NIM for FY2012 over FY2011 levels.
Earlier estimates FY2012 20.0 18.0 27.3 2.4 12.7 (2.5) 15.0 1.9 0.2 FY2013 20.0 17.0 26.6 2.2 17.8 15.0 15.0 1.9 0.2
Revised estimates FY2012 18.0 16.0 27.8 2.2 2.7 (5.0) 12.0 1.9 (0.2) FY2013 18.0 16.0 27.3 2.1 28.3 15.0 15.0 1.8 0.2
FY2013 Earlier estimates 9,393 3,589 12,981 5,250 7,731 1,658 6,073 1,971 4,103 Revised Var. (%) estimates 8,683 3,560 12,243 5,114 7,129 1,457 5,671 1,840 3,831 (7.6) (0.8) (5.7) (2.6) (7.8) (12.1) (6.6) (6.6) (6.6)
Earlier estimates 8,475 3,047 11,522 4,565 6,957 1,549 5,408 1,352 4,056
Revised Var. (%) estimates 7,612 2,775 10,387 4,447 5,940 1,190 4,750 1,187 3,562 (10.2) (8.9) (9.9) (2.6) (14.6) (23.2) (12.2) (12.2) (12.2)
Dec-07
Apr-06
Jul-07
Aug-09
Feb-07
Apr-11
Mar-09
May-08
Nov-10
Feb-12
Sep-06
Oct-08
Sep-11
Jan-10
Jun-10
FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 20.9 20.2 30.5 24.5 11.6 19.1 9.2 3.1 10.8 18.7 (2.4) (10.9) 6.1 5.1 14.3 10.4 22.4 8.8 7.5 7.4 44.2 14.6 16.5 20.0 6.1 8.6
FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5
FY2013E RoE (%) 21.0 14.1 20.9 15.6 17.2 20.6 17.8 16.8 19.6 18.0 17.2 15.1 17.9 15.7 14.5 20.4 16.4 17.0 14.4 20.0 22.6 17.0 17.1 17.9 12.5 12.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 3,538 (12.1) 2,308 52.7 5,846 5.6 2,791 8.8 3,055 2.7 1,150 (11.7) 1,905 14.0 340 17.8 1,565 10.1 FY09 4,718 33.4 2,427 5.1 7,145 22.2 3,065 9.8 4,080 33.5 1,507 31.1 2,572 35.0 500 19.4 2,072 32.4 FY10 5,681 20.4 2,858 17.7 8,538 19.5 3,478 13.5 5,061 24.1 1,239 (17.8) 3,821 48.6 800 20.9 3,021 45.8 FY11 7,823 37.7 2,703 (5.4) 10,526 23.3 4,419 27.1 6,107 20.7 1,081 (12.8) 5,026 31.5 1,000 19.9 4,026 33.2 FY12E 7,612 (2.7) 2,775 2.7 10,387 (1.3) 4,447 0.6 5,940 (2.7) 1,190 10.1 4,750 (5.5) 1,187 25.0 3,562 (11.5) FY13E 8,683 14.1 3,560 28.3 12,243 17.9 5,114 15.0 7,129 20.0 1,457 22.5 5,671 19.4 1,840 32.4 3,831 7.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 410 10,090 154,072 8.2 2,517 6,115 7,175 180,380 13,365 4,513 49,812 107,238 8.9 2,917 2,536 180,380 8.8 FY09 410 11,798 186,893 21.3 7,057 6,944 6,498 219,599 10,037 6,623 57,777 138,219 28.9 2,929 4,014 219,599 21.7 FY10 410 14,262 234,651 25.6 1,041 7,399 6,977 264,741 15,719 3,934 69,677 169,335 22.5 2,859 3,217 264,741 20.6 FY11 443 19,597 293,973 25.3 5,198 9,063 7,805 336,079 22,015 8,693 83,700 212,467 25.5 2,844 6,359 336,079 26.9 FY12E 443 22,387 341,008 16.0 6,030 10,695 9,288 389,851 22,166 10,084 96,313 250,711 18.0 3,201 7,377 389,851 16.0 FY13E 443 25,394 395,570 16.0 6,995 12,620 11,206 452,228 25,712 11,698 106,820 295,839 18.0 3,601 8,557 452,228 16.0
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 1.6 1.1 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.9 21.1 19.1 2.4 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.9 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.3 1.0 21.8 22.6 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.4 2.2 0.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.2 21.5 26.8 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.1 2.3 0.8 3.1 1.5 1.7 0.3 1.3 19.7 26.4 2.1 0.3 1.8 (0.0) 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.2 1.3 0.3 1.0 18.8 18.4 2.1 0.3 1.7 0.0 1.8 0.8 2.6 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.9 18.9 17.2 12.1 2.4 1.7 9.1 2.1 1.7 6.3 1.7 2.2 5.1 1.2 2.4 5.7 1.0 3.3 5.3 0.9 3.5 38.2 188.4 8.0 50.5 221.3 8.0 73.7 277.7 10.0 90.9 381.8 11.0 80.4 453.7 15.0 86.5 516.2 16.0 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.5 34.5 1.6 1.1 2.2 0.5 30.5 1.5 1.1 2.4 0.6 77.7 1.4 0.8 2.1 0.3 73.0 2.2 1.3 1.9 0.3 69.0 2.6 1.3 1.8 0.3 68.0 31.5 69.6 13.3 7.0 30.1 74.0 13.0 7.4 29.1 72.2 12.5 7.9 28.3 72.3 14.2 10.0 27.8 73.5 15.5 10.8 27.3 74.8 15.6 10.6 2.1 47.7 0.9 19.1 2.4 42.9 1.0 22.6 2.4 40.7 1.2 26.8 2.7 42.0 1.3 26.4 2.2 42.8 1.0 18.4 2.1 41.8 0.9 17.2 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Canara Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11