Professional Documents
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Bank of India
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (20.2) 15.8 4.8 1QFY11 1,740 1,411 725 % chg (yoy) 5.8 (1.0) (28.6)
`389 `434
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 1QFY2012, Bank of India posted a disappointing set of results, with net profit declining by 28.6% yoy due to a sharp 75bp compression in global NIM and annualised slippage ratio rising sharply to 3.2%. We downgrade the stock to Accumulate due to concerns on NIM as well as near-term asset-quality pressures. Sharp compression in NIM; slippages spike up again: The banks business growth momentum moderated considerably, with advances growing by muted 0.9% qoq (up 21.6% yoy) and deposits declining by 1.9% qoq (up 25.4% yoy). Growth in better yielding retail and SME advances was sluggish at 5.6% yoy and 9.1% yoy. Domestic CASA deposits growth moderated further to 14.3% yoy. Domestic CASA ratio improved sequentially to 30.2% in 1QFY2012 (28.9% in 4QFY2011). Domestic NIM declined sharply by 95bp qoq to 2.4% partly on account of reversal of accrued interest income (of `175cr) on NPAs recognised during the quarter and the saving account interest rate hike. However, NIM was supported by the interest on income tax refund of `170cr. On the asset-quality front, the bank disappointed again, with the annualised slippage ratio rising to 3.2% from an already high 2.4% in 4QFY2011 and 1.5% in 1QFY2011. Higher slippages were partly due to switchover of accounts above `5lakhs to system-based NPA recognition system. Provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs came off by ~500bp qoq to 66.8%. Outlook and valuation: We have cut our estimates for FY2012 and FY2013 by 12.3% and 4.6%, respectively, to factor in the higher-than-expected run rate of slippages and the sharp contraction in NIM witnessed in 1QFY2012. Hence, we downgrade the stock considering the sharp dip in NIM and continuance of asset-quality pressures in the near term. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised target price of `434 (`498).
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 65.9 12.4 15.5 6.3
3m (5.3) (20.2)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 5,756 4.7 1,741 (42.1) 2.4 33.1 11.7 1.8 0.7 14.2
FY2011 7,811 35.7 2,489 42.9 2.6 45.5 8.5 1.5 0.8 17.3
FY2012E 7,862 0.7 2,730 9.7 2.2 49.9 7.8 1.3 0.7 16.0
FY2013E 9,170 16.6 3,508 28.5 2.1 64.1 6.1 1.1 0.8 18.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 6,634 4,596 1,641 220 177 4,793 1,841 660 550 274 110 31 246 2,501 1,105 700 405 1,396 567 388 90 89 829 311 518 37.6 6,307 4,325 1,412 295 275 4,000 2,307 823 697 347 127 92 258 3,130 1,925 1,462 464 1,205 478 337 8 133 728 234 494 32.2 5.2 6.3 16.2 (25.4) (35.6) 19.8 (20.2) (19.8) (21.0) (21.1) (13.3) (66.1) (4.8) (20.1) (42.6) (52.1) (12.6) 15.8 18.8 15.2 1,053.8 (33.0) 13.9 33.0 4.8 539bp 4,822 3,492 1,178 148 4 3,081 1,740 586 486 250 100 37 199 2,326 916 574 342 1,411 386 308 1 78 1,025 300 725 29.2 37.6 31.6 39.3 49.0 3,902.0 55.5 5.8 12.7 13.3 9.6 9.8 (15.4) 23.2 7.5 20.7 22.0 18.5 (1.0) 47.0 26.1 17,900.0 15.0 (19.1) 3.9 (28.6) 832bp
Actual 1,841 660 2,501 1,105 1,396 567 829 311 518
Estimates 2,161 651 2,811 1,186 1,625 481 1,145 371 773
Var (%) (14.8) 1.5 (11.0) (6.8) (14.1) 18.0 (27.6) (16.2) (33.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Profitability ratios excluding CIR for domestic operations
4.9 1.7
2.6 3.2
6.2 4.8
0.9
5.0 (5.0)
10.6 18.4
32.3
33.2
32.3
28.9
(1.9)
65.0
30.2
68.0
28.0
The retail and SME segments credit grew rather moderately at 5.6% yoy and 9.1% yoy, respectively. However growth in agricultural and corporate loans was reasonably healthy at 24.8% yoy and 18.2% yoy, respectively.
NIM declines on reversal of accrued interest on NPAs, but aided by interest on income tax refund
Domestic NIM of the bank declined sharply by 95bp qoq to 2.4% partly on account of reversal of accrued interest income (of `175cr) on NPAs recognised during the quarter and the saving account interest rate hike. However, NIM was supported by the interest on income tax refund of `170cr. In spite of the sequential 200bp qoq improvement in CD ratio, the NIM decline was quite severe. The decline in global reported NIM was relatively lower at 75bp to 2.2%. Domestic yield on advances expanded by just 17bp qoq, which was lower as compared to peers, partly on account of the accrued interest income reversal on NPAs. On the contrary, cost of deposits rose sharply by 79bp qoq to 6.9%. Going forward, the bank is targeting to maintain its global NIM at 2.5%. We have revised our NIM assumptions downwards by ~20bp for FY2012 and by ~10bp for FY2013, given sluggish growth in relatively higher-yielding retail and SME advances.
1QFY12 4QFY11 274 110 147 31 98 660 550 347 127 133 92 124 823 697
% chg (qoq) 1QFY11 (21.1) (13.3) 10.3 (66.1) (20.9) (19.8) (21.0) 250 100 131 37 68 586 486
higher slippages in 2QFY2012 as well. However, management is hopeful of moderation in slippages and pick-up in recoveries in 2HFY2012. Overall, the asset quality took a considerable hit during the quarter. Absolute gross and net NPAs rose by 20.4% qoq and 38.3% qoq, respectively. The provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs slipped by ~540bp qoq to 66.8%.
2.7 1.2
2.6 1.1
2.4 0.9
2.2 0.9
2.7 1.3
60.0
0.5
The banks restructuring of advances has also risen sharply in the past couple of quarters, indicating the stress on the portfolio. During 1QFY2012, the bank restructured advances worth `932cr on the back of already high restructuring of `740cr in 4QFY2011 and `719cr in 3QFY2011 as compared to restructuring of `346cr in 2QFY2011 and `302cr in 1QFY2011. Cumulative restructured assets increased by relatively lesser amount from `10,644cr in 4QFY2011 to `11,102cr (5.2% of advances and 62.3% of net worth), on account repayments in restructured account of `476cr in 1QFY2012. Restructured advances of `434cr slipped into NPAs during 1QFY2012. Cumulative slippages from restructured advances grew to `2,337cr (21.1% of restructured book) during 1QFY2012. During 1QFY2012, provisioning expenses increased substantially by 47.0% yoy on account of higher NPA provisions and provisions for investment depreciation of `90cr vs. just `1cr in 1QFY2011. Credit costs were sequentially stable at 0.4% as the bank pared its provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs by more than 500bp during the quarter. Exhibit 13: Provisioning expenses rise on NPA & investment depreciation
Particulars (` cr) NPA Investment related Others Total 1QFY12 388 90 89 567 4QFY11 337 8 133 478 % chg (qoq) 15.2 1,053.8 (33.0) 18.7 1QFY11 308 1 78 386 % chg (yoy) 26.1 17,900.0 14.9 47.0
1,462
700 350 -
342
378
405
1,050
409
464
39.4
41.6
47.3
61.5
574
603
837
700
10.0 -
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Investment arguments
Lower provisions to drive RoE
During the 2008 global meltdown, the bank faced severe asset-quality pressures and reported a slippage rate of 2.9% in FY2010 (from 1.8% in FY2009). As a result, NPA provision/assets increased to 0.7% in FY2010 from 0.3% in FY2009, in turn exerting pressure on the banks RoE. However, as observed in FY2011 results, the bank has by and large overcome the worst in terms of asset quality. The slippage ratio for FY2011 has declined to 1.7% from 2.9% in FY2010. Though slippages have risen above the 3.0% mark for 1QFY2012 and are likely to be high in 2QFY2012 as well, it is primarily on account of the switchover to system-based NPA recognition system. Hence, we expect slippages pressure to moderate considerably from 2HFY2012. We expect NPA provision/assets to decline to 0.40.5% by FY2012 and FY2013, leading to improvement in RoE to 18% by FY2013 from 14.2% in FY2010.
44.2
Earlier estimates FY2012 20.0 17.0 24.9 2.4 7.1 (7.5) 15.0 1.8 0.1 FY2013 19.0 17.0 24.4 2.2 16.0 15.0 15.0 1.8 0.1
Revised estimates FY2012 20.0 17.0 24.9 2.2 7.1 (13.0) 13.0 2.3 0.1 FY2013 19.0 17.0 24.4 2.1 16.0 15.0 15.0 1.8 0.1
600
400
200
Dec-03
Dec-10
Jul-04
Apr-06
Mar-02
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-02
Feb-05
Oct-09
Jul-11
Sep-05
May-03
Nov-06
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
May-10
Feb-12
Jun-07
Jan-08
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 4,229 22.9 2,117 35.4 6,346 26.8 2,645 1.4 3,701 54.5 1,017 17.9 2,685 75.1 675 25.2 2,009 78.9 FY09 5,499 30.0 3,052 44.2 8,551 34.7 3,094 17.0 5,457 47.4 1,292 27.1 4,164 55.1 1,157 27.8 3,007 49.7 FY10 5,756 4.7 2,617 (14.3) 8,373 (2.1) 3,668 18.5 4,705 (13.8) 2,211 71.1 2,494 (40.1) 753 30.2 1,741 (42.1) FY11 7,811 35.7 2,642 1.0 10,452 24.8 5,068 38.2 5,384 14.4 1,889 (14.6) 3,495 40.2 1,007 28.8 2,489 42.9 FY12E 7,862 0.7 2,829 7.1 10,691 2.3 4,823 (4.8) 5,868 9.0 1,827 (3.3) 4,041 15.6 1,311 32.4 2,730 9.7 FY13E 9,170 16.6 3,281 16.0 12,451 16.5 5,547 15.0 6,904 17.7 1,712 (6.3) 5,193 28.5 1,685 32.4 3,508 28.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 526 10,063 150,012 25.1 7,172 4,946 6,110 178,830 11,742 5,976 41,803 113,476 33.6 2,426 3,407 178,830 26.3 FY09 526 12,969 189,708 26.5 9,487 6,186 6,625 225,502 8,915 12,846 52,607 142,909 25.9 2,532 5,692 225,502 26.1 FY10 526 13,704 229,762 21.1 14,079 8,320 8,590 274,982 15,603 15,628 67,080 168,491 17.9 2,352 5,829 274,982 21.9 FY11 547 16,743 298,886 30.1 12,862 9,160 12,975 351,173 21,782 15,528 85,872 213,096 26.5 2,481 12,413 351,173 27.7 FY12E 547 18,901 349,696 17.0 16,435 10,992 14,301 410,872 22,730 18,167 96,920 255,715 20.0 2,815 14,523 410,872 17.0 FY13E 547 21,677 409,145 17.0 19,229 13,080 17,042 480,720 26,594 21,256 108,381 304,301 19.0 3,195 16,992 480,720 17.0
10
Ratio analysis
Y/E March NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.6 0.6 2.0 0.2 2.2 1.1 3.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.3 22.0 27.6 2.7 0.6 2.1 0.4 2.4 1.1 3.6 1.5 2.1 0.6 1.5 19.6 29.2 2.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 20.4 14.2 2.5 0.6 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.8 21.8 17.3 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.7 2.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.7 22.3 16.0 2.1 0.4 1.7 0.0 1.7 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.8 22.8 18.0 10.2 2.3 1.0 6.8 1.8 2.1 11.7 1.8 1.8 8.5 1.5 1.8 7.8 1.3 2.3 6.1 1.1 3.0 38.2 167.8 4.0 57.2 215.2 8.0 33.1 215.6 7.0 45.5 266.6 7.0 49.9 308.7 9.0 64.1 361.3 11.5 1.7 0.5 1.6 0.4 75.6 1.7 0.4 1.8 0.3 56.1 2.9 1.3 2.9 0.7 65.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 0.3 72.2 3.2 1.7 2.3 0.3 65.0 3.4 1.5 1.8 0.3 67.0 30.6 75.6 13.0 8.2 26.8 75.3 12.1 8.3 27.8 73.3 12.0 7.9 25.4 71.3 11.4 7.8 24.9 73.1 12.1 8.0 24.4 74.4 12.0 7.8 FY08 2.7 41.7 1.3 27.6 FY09 2.8 36.2 1.5 29.2 FY10 2.4 43.8 0.7 14.2 FY11 2.6 48.5 0.8 17.3 FY12E 2.2 45.1 0.7 16.0 FY13E 2.1 44.5 0.8 18.0
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12