Market Insights

Headlines
USD higher, equities sold, as risk aversion finally kicks in AUD, NZD both make new record highs before late reversal; BNZ keeps rates on hold EUR sharply lower as German finance minister warns no blank cheque BoJ board member Kamezaki warns Japan will take proactive action on yen gains US share markets hit by heavy selling, Dow falls 1.6% US employment numbers due at 10.30pm likely to take back seat to debt negotiations

28 July 2011

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.1080 Support 1.1010 Market Sentiment

Bullish

The Aussie surged to new post-float highs after yesterdays higher-than-expected CPI numbers. The market has since pulled back to support at 1.1010 and traders will be looking to take new longs while we trade above 1.1010. A break below 1.1010 sets up a move to 1.0950.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1625 Support 1610 Market Sentiment

Bullish Gold produced a false break above 1625 overnight and this sets up a move back to the lower end of the trading range at 1610. Traders will continue to focus on building new longs above that level, but with the market now apparently becoming more concerned about the US debt situation, the negative correlation between gold and the USD could be beginning to break down.

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4530 Support 1.4325 Market Sentiment

Bullish (while above 1.4325) Despite last nights heavy selldown on the Euro, traders are likely to give the pair the benefit of the doubt and continue to favour longs while we trade above 1.4325. A clear break of 1.4325, however, will be seen as bearish.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6440 Support 1.6260 Market Sentiment

Bullish (while above 1.6260) Unsurprisingly, the pound is in a similar position to the Euro, with last nights selldown seen as a warning that the pair might be due to reverse. That said, the market will remain bullish while the pair trades above 1.6260, but a break below that level will be bearish.

USD/JPY
Resistance 78.00 Support 77.60 Market Sentiment

Bearish The dollar-yens move lower continues with the recent move to 78.00 seen as an opportunity to take new shorts. Yesterdays warning from the BoJ that they are considering policy move to intervene in the market might keep the market cautious.

SILVER
Resistance 41.00 Support 40.00/20 Market Sentiment

Bullish As per most other markets, the overnight reversal has seen silver sent back to support at 40.00/20. Traders will be looking for new longs around this level, but a continuation of the USD strength could see silver break below lower support on this ascending triangle.

USD/CHF
Resistance 80.80 Support 80.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish The USD/CHF continues to be hit by the USD weakness and we didnt see the same kind of greenback reversal as we saw in other markets. Traders will be waiting for a move back to resistance at 80.80 or a break below 80.00 for new shorts.

GBP/JPY
Resistance 128.20 Support 127.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish No real change with the ascending triangle formation dominating the price action. Traders will continue to take shorts around 128.20 until we see a clear break above this level while a break below 127.00 will also see further selling.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 86.00 Support 85.20 Market Sentiment

Bullish The market looks to be still bullish on the AUD/JPY and waiting for a clear break above 86.00. A pullback to 85.20 will also be seen as a buying opportunity.

OIL
Resistance 97.00 Support 96.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish Crude has clearly broken lower and this now puts the ball in the bears court. Traders will be waiting for a move back to 97.00 in order to take new shorts.

Economic Calendar
F/Cast
JPY: Retail Sales EUR: German Unemployment GBP: CBI Realized Sales -0.6% -15k 1

Last
-1.3% -8k -2 USD: Unemployment Claims USD: Pending Home Sales m/m USD: Natural Gas Storage

F/Cast
413k -1.5% 38B

Last
418k 8.2% 60B

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