CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES ON THE RAINFALL CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Charles E. Konrad II, and Lawrence E. Band Department of Geography The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3220

Abstract: Landslides are a significant hazard in the mountains of North Carolina. While previous studies have estimated the critical instantaneous rainfall rates that may trigger a landslide, very little is known about the climatology of rainfall events associated with landslides. The rainfall climatology of a sample of landslide events in western North Carolina from 1950 to 2004 is presented in two parts. First, the two-day concurrent and cumulative antecedent (from 4 to 90 days prior to slope movement) rainfall totals are assessed climatologically by ranking them relative to all heavy precipitation events observed in western North Carolina over a 55-year period. Second, the storm types responsible for the rainfall associated with each landslide event are determined using a manual weather map classification scheme. Forty-seven percent (47%) of the landslide events are connected with concurrent rainfall totals that exceed a one-year return period. In almost half of these cases, the heavy rainfall is associated with a tropical cyclone passing through the region. The other major storm types connected with landslide events (i.e., synoptic and cyclonic-type events) generally display lower rainfall intensities and longer durations compared to tropical cyclones. Landslide activity shows the strongest relationship with antecedent precipitation totals over a 90-day period, which is the longest time period examined in the study. In many cases, a tropical cyclone produced heavy rainfall over the landslide location between 30 and 90 days before the event. [Key words: landslide, heavy rainfall, storm types, climatology, western North Carolina.]

INTRODUCTION Landslides are a significant hazard in mountainous regions. In western North Carolina, a region situated in the southern chain of the Appalachian Mountains (Fig. 1), over 1000 landslides (i.e., slope movements) have been recorded since the early 1900s (Wooten et al., 2007). Across the southern Appalachians, more than 200 fatalities and thousands of acres of destroyed forest and farmland have resulted from landslide activity (Wieczorek et al., 2004; Witt, 2005). A combination of thin soils, steep slopes, and orographically enhanced precipitation leaves the mountains of North Carolina highly susceptible to slope failure (Witt, 2005). Further, increased development along mountain slopes continues to place additional stress on soils and roots while changing the natural slope configuration through practices such as undercutting and excavation. Landslides are also a potential hazard to those living in the flat debris fans located above the floodplain, as slope movement along the nearby hillslopes is more likely to reactivate during periods of heavy rainfall (Ritter et al., 2002). 289
Physical Geography, 2008, 29, 4, pp. 289-305. Copyright 2008 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All rights reserved. DOI: 10.2747/0272-3646.29.4.289

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Fig. 1. Study area with shaded relief and COOP station locations.

The most common type of landslide in western North Carolina is the debris flow (Witt, 2005). This type of slope movement often originates in mountain hollows (i.e., concavities) where surface and groundwater flows collect. Slope movement generally occurs in shallow soils located along steep slopes (at least 20) with the resulting flow often traveling at swift speeds over distances up to several kilometers (Witt, 2005). Debris flows usually consist of high-density and high-viscosity material and tend to travel along preexisting drainage channels. Other types of landslides common in western North Carolina include debris slides, earth slides, rock slides, and rock falls (Wooten et al., 2007). Debris and earth slides typically move much more slowly than debris flows because of their higher clay content, requiring more water for liquification (Varnes, 1978). Persistent wet periods can allow water to slowly infiltrate existing tension cracks and scarps, thus preconditioning the slope for failure. Approximately two-thirds of all landslides recorded in western North Carolina consist of slope movement deposits, mainly debris fans and other debris deposits (Wooten et al., 2007). Rock slides and falls occur most frequently along roadways that have been cut into natural rock slopes. Although heavy rainfall can trigger a rock slide or fall, most of these landslides have been tied to freezethaw cycles, wedging of tree roots, and slope destabilization exacerbated by excavation and blasting (Varnes, 1978). In the absence of sufficiently heavy rainfall, most slopes in western North Carolina remain stable due to ample vegetation and strong soil-root cohesion (Witt,

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2005). Heavy rainfall that penetrates the bedrock-soil interface or results in significant increases in soil pore pressure at an interface, however, can induce slope movement. Past studies have defined a 24-hour rainfall threshold of about 125 mm (5 in) before slope movement can occur (e.g., Eschner and Patric, 1982; Neary and Swift, 1987; Witt, 2005). However, excessive point precipitation totals alone cannot be used to adequately determine the potential for flooding rainfall (or rainfall necessary to induce a landslide). The timing and spatial distribution of rainfall must also be considered to determine the potential for flooding or slope movement (Hirschboeck et al., 2000; Konrad, 2001). This includes examinations of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall conditions at various time scales (e.g., days, weeks, months) as well as the spatial extent of the rainfall (e.g., local to regional scale distributions). Heavy rainfall events known to activate landslides in western North Carolina are typically associated with (1) short-lived, intense localized storms, (2) long-lived, regional-scale storms, or (3) multiple short or long duration storms that train across the region over a period of days to weeks (Witt, 2005). The return intervals for these types of storms and how they rank within the context of other heavy rainfall events in western North Carolina are not known. Moreover, the time scales and intensities of antecedent rainfall required to prime slopes for landslide activity are not clear, but depend on the soil mass balance of water from rainfall infiltration, net drainage, and evapotranspiration. In the southern Appalachians, hydrologic conditions promoting landslide activity may be associated with antecedent rainfall over a wide range of time periods. The objectives of this study are as follows. First, the 2-day concurrent and 4- to 90-day antecedent rainfall totals associated with landslide events in western North Carolina from 1950 to 2004 are determined and ranked within the context of a heavy rainfall climatology for western North Carolina. Second, the predominant storm types associated with each landslide event are characterized using a classification scheme (with some variants) adopted from a seminal study of flash flood events. DATA AND METHODOLOGY Identification of Landslide Events The North Carolina Geological Survey (NCGS), in response to the destruction resulting from major landslides in the fall of 2004, was authorized by the North Carolina General Assembly to prepare county-scale slope movement hazard maps with an emphasis on western North Carolina. A combination of field observations, remote sensing imagery, and digital elevation models were analyzed in a geographic information system to identify historical landslide events in the region. At the time the NCGS database was acquired for this study (August 2006), there were a combined 2046 entries for slope movements (i.e., landslides, nearly all post-1940) and slope movement deposits, which are presumed to be mainly prehistoric. Updates to the NCGS database are made routinely. As of June 2008, it had included 3032 slope movement processes and 2254 slope movement deposits (R. Wooten, pers. comm., 2008). The reader is directed to Wooten et al. (2007) for details on the NCGS

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landslide hazard mapping project. Although the current NCGS database identifies some of the major landslide events since the early 1900s, the availability of precipitation data only allowed for analysis of landslides from 1950 to 2004. Therefore, for the purposes of this research, only those landslides identified in western North Carolina were examined for the 1950 to 2004 time period (Fig. 1; see Konrad, 1996, for a detailed description of the study area and its rainfall climatology). Initially, the movement date and location of each landslide were used to aggregate individual landslides into events. This was done to better relate the occurrence of landslides to particular storm types. For each event, at least 60% of the individual landslides had to have unique coordinates (latitude and longitude) and a movement date given to the day (e.g., 17 March 1990) so concurrent rainfall for each event could be determined. Using the above methods, 30 landslide events (encompassing 221 individual landslides) were identified in western North Carolina from 1950 to 2004 (Table 1). These events included landslides that initiated on modified and unmodified slopes. It is important to note that the landslide events examined in this study only account for approximately 25% of all recorded landslides in the NCGS database (as of August 2006) and 58% of recorded landslides during the 1950 to 2004 period. In all other cases there was simply not enough information in the database to determine the day that slope movement occurred. Rainfall Data and Methodology To determine the amount of rainfall associated with each landslide event, daily rainfall estimates were obtained from the nearest Cooperative Observer Network (COOP) station (Fig. 1). This network of rain gauges provided the most complete spatial coverage of rainfall for the study period, but several caveats are noteworthy. First, event rainfall totals typically show much fine-scale variation across complex terrain, thus increasing errors in the extrapolation of COOP rainfall estimates. Second, there is an inherent bias in the distribution of COOP stations across western North Carolina toward valley locations. This has a large impact on the estimation of rainfall at local scales (e.g., along isolated peaks or ridge tops) even with statistically sound interpolation techniques (e.g., co-kriging). Third, there has been a secular decrease in the number of COOP stations from 1950 to 1996, which may have had a slight negative impact on rainfall estimates in the later years of the study period (Konrad, 2001). The rainfall thresholds required to initiate landslides are typically expressed in terms of a daily or hourly rainfall rate (Neary and Swift, 1987). Although hourly rainfall amounts are desirable, a sufficiently dense network of hourly weather stations in western North Carolina currently does not exist. The measurement times for the daily rainfall measurements at COOP stations vary (e.g., many were recorded for the 24-hour time period ending at 1200 UTC or 0000 UTC), but this information was not routinely available at all stations. Thus, it was not possible to provide daily (24-hr) areal estimates of rainfall over the study area. Instead, two-day rainfall totals were calculated. This subsequently produced a positive bias in rainfall amounts per event, as most heavy rainfall events generally occur over periods of hours as opposed to days (Giordano and Fritsch, 1991). As such, it was not possible to

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Table 1. Landslide Events Identified in Western North Carolina from 1950 to 2004
Date May 28, 1973 April 4, 1977 November 5, 1977 March 5, 1985 June 25, 1988 April 6, 1989 June 16, 1989 February 16, 1990 March 17, 1990 December 23, 1990 July 9, 1994 August 17, 1994 October 5, 1995 July 1, 1997 May 11, 1999 June 15, 1999 July 6, 1999 January 28, 2002 May 30, 2002 April 10, 2003 May 5, 2003 October 3, 2003 November 1, 2003 November 19, 2003 December 11, 2003 June 12, 2004 September 6, 2004 September 16, 2004 November 24, 2004 December 12, 2004 No. slides 1 1 69 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 5 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 18 1 1 1 1 1 31* 68* 2 1 Watauga Mitchell Buncombe; Henderson Haywood Haywood Haywood Watauga Macon Jackson Cherokee; Clay; Swain Haywood Transylvania Haywood Swain McDowell Madison Mitchell Henderson Caldwell Swain; Haywood; Jackson Mitchell McDowell Macon Haywood Madison 10 counties 13 counties Graham Graham Counties Materials and mechanisms Composite Debris flow Debris flow; debris slide Rock slide Rock slide; rock fall Rock slide Composite Debris flow Debris flow Debris flow Debris flow Debris flow; debris slide Rock slide Rock slide Rock slide Debris flow Rock slide Rock slide Creep Debris flow; debris slide; weathered rock Debris slide Weathered rock Debris flow Debris flow; debris slide Weathered rock Debris flow; debris slide; weathered rock Debris slide; earth flow; blowout Earth flow Rock slide

Macon; Buncombe; Jackson Debris flow

*The current landslide count (as of June 2008) for the September 2004 storms triggered by Hurricanes Frances and Ivan is over 400 based on recent information from the United States Forest Service (R. Wooten, personal communication).

determine rainfall thresholds that could be readily compared to those of other studies. However, major landslide events are typically associated with weather systems lasting at least one day or comprising a series of storms or rainfall events (Witt, 2005). Therefore, the use of two-day areal mean rainfall over the entire study area should capture the cumulative rainfall from a single weather system. Two-day

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Table 2. Recurrence Intervals and Ranks of the 55 Heaviest Two-Day Rainfall Events and Antecedent Rainfall Totals (mm) Over Western North Carolina from 1950 to 2004
Rank 1 10 25 55 Recurrence interval (year) 55 5 2 1 Antecedent precipitation (days prior to rainfall event) (mm) 2-day 593 284 265 213 4 439 260 198 114 7 632 345 249 156 14 840 431 297 197 21 925 449 333 223 30 950 537 379 266 60 1,312 789 607 472 90 1,578 1,047 885 635

rainfall totals from all COOP stations in the study area from 1950 to 2004 were interpolated onto a 10 km by 10 km grid using Theissen polygons (Konrad, 2001). This routine was done daily, thus providing temporally overlapping, two-day rainfall totals for each day over the 55-year period of study. Local rainfall amounts over the landslide event location were determined from the interpolated grid. One of the major objectives of this paper was to determine the climatological significance of rainfall events associated with landslides in western North Carolina. To accomplish this, the two-day rainfall associated with each landslide event (i.e., the large-scale instantaneous rainfall) and the cumulative antecedent rainfall over a range of temporal scales were ranked within the context of a heavy rainfall climatology for the study area. As in Konrad (2001) and Konrad et al. (2002), the heavy rainfall climatology was defined by events with a recurrence interval of one year or greater (i.e., the heaviest 55 rainfall events from 1950 to 2004) over the location (i.e., COOP station) with the highest point rainfall total for each event (Table 2). It should be noted that the estimation of recurrence intervals did not involve an analysis of the statistical distribution of the rainfall totals. Recurrence intervals were also estimated for rainfall totals determined across each landslide area across seven antecedent time periods: 4 days, 7 days, 14 days, 21 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days. These periods represent a broad range of temporal scales over which cumulative rainfall may trigger threshold pore pressures, as well as the hydrologic systems that may induce slope movement (Fig. 2). It is important to note that the rainfall totals calculated over the antecedent time periods do not include the two-day concurrent rainfall totals associated with a given rainfall or landslide event (i.e., rainfall was calculated over time periods prior to but not including the events). Classification of Storm Types The predominant storm types associated with each landslide event were determined using a manual classification scheme developed by Maddox et al. (1979) for flash flood events across the eastern United States. Manual weather type classification involves simple visual examination of surface (and sometimes upper-level) weather maps to identify predominant weather types or patterns over a given region (Yarnal, 1993). The Maddox et al. scheme identifies three storm types (synoptic, frontal, and mesohigh) based on the location of flooding rainfall relative to the

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Fig. 2. Time intervals (days) over which rainfall totals are calculated, and the associated hydrologic systems and conditions that may induce slope movement.

location of synoptic and subsynoptic scale features (e.g., frontal boundaries, cyclones, moisture plumes) and the rain shield (Fig. 3). In the synoptic-type events, convective cells repeatedly develop and move (i.e., train) over a broad scale in the warm sector along and ahead of a slow-moving front. Typically, a slow-moving upper-level trough or cutoff low is present immediately upstream. In the frontaltype events, convective cells, elevated over a stationary frontal surface, train over a regional-scale area north of a stationary front. In contrast, mesohigh events in the Maddox et al (1979) scheme result largely from local to mesoscale processes and produce heavy rainfall at a much more localized scale. In the present study, no mesoscale analysis was undertaken, thus the mesohigh type could not be definitively identified. Instead, events that show very localized precipitation patterns were classified as isolated. Many of these events occurred near the Blue Ridge escarpment where localized orographic lifting is common. Surface and 500 hPa daily (1200 UTC) weather maps were obtained online from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Daily Weather Map Series and used to identify the synoptic types. Examination of these maps revealed that two additional storm types were associated with heavy rainfall in the region: cyclonic and tropical cyclones (Fig. 3). The cyclonic type accounts for events where heavy rainfall occurred in the cool sector (i.e., north to northwest quadrant) of a mid-latitude cyclone. Additionally, an upstream 500 hPa cyclone or trough was commonly associated with these events.

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Fig. 3. Schematic of the surface weather patterns for each storm type. Shaded areas represent composite rain shields. Triangles represent mountain peaks associated with isolated rainfall events.

RESULTS The spatial distribution of landslide events identified in this study reveals a preference for slope movement along steep escarpments where local precipitation is enhanced by upslope flow. Conversely, the absence of landslide events in the interior valleys may be tied to downslope flow and the suppression of precipitation (i.e., rain shadow) as well as a general decrease in slope angle. An example of the landslide distribution is provided for Macon County, which is bounded by the northwest and southeast escarpments (Fig. 4). More than two-thirds of landslide events examined in this study consisted of only one individual landslide. Half of these isolated events occurred in the last two years of the study period, likely due in large part to the better detection of landslides in recent years and possibly other nonmeteorological and geomorphologic factors (e.g., soil-root cohesion, internal friction; see Godt et al., 2006). A summary of the rainfall rankings associated with each landslide event is presented in Table 3. All events in which a ranking is provided were connected with rainfall totals that exceeded the one-year return period. Initial inspection of the rainfall amounts and rankings revealed that none of the rock slide, rock fall, or weathered rock events (taken together to be simply rock events) was associated with heavy concurrent rainfall (Table 4). Moreover, four of these events did not exhibit any heavy antecedent rainfall in the 90 days prior to the event. While rainfall cannot be excluded as a contributing factor in these events, data from the NCGS database suggests that other processes (e.g., excavation) likely contributed more significantly to these types of slope failure (Wooten et al., 2007). Thus, the remainder of the analysis focuses primarily on the other 19 landslide events (i.e., debris

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Table 3. Ranks of the Concurrent (Two-Day) and Antecedent Rainfall for Debris Flow, Debris Slide, Composite, Creep, and Earth Flow Eventsa
Antecedent precipitation (days prior to rainfall event) Date May 28, 1973 April 4, 1977 November 5, 1977 June 16, 1989 February 16, 1990 March 17, 1990 July 9, 1994 August 17, 1994 October 5, 1995 July 6, 1999 April 10, 2003 May 5, 2003 October 3, 2003 Storm type Synoptic Synoptic Cyclonic Synoptic Synoptic Synoptic TC Alberto TC Beryl TC Opal Isolated Cyclonic Cyclonic Isolated 2-day 48 22 53 7 25 28 32 1 6 92 4 23 50 42 36 54 3 51 18 2 1 53 7 25 31 24 46 4 55 26 3 2* 44 51 14 36 32 38 40 25 52 43 3 39 54 35 22 2 1* 46 39 21 15 42 49 48 23 45 47 53 28 44 43 24 38 6* 1 41 43 30 27 11 42 46 17 10 37 45 * 34 54 50 21 14 8* 1 49 36 60 24 17 5* 27 32 8 48 52* 35 42 47 22 12 14 21 2 1 26 90 11 36 10 28 37 16 41* 49 42 40 51 15* 13 18 3 1 2* 20

December 23, 1990 Synoptic

November 19, 2003 Cyclonic December 11, 2003 Cyclonic September 6, 2004 TC Frances September 16, 2004 TC Ivan November 24, 2004 Synoptic Median ranking
a

Italicized rankings indicate rainfall amounts in the top quartile of all heavy rainfall events. Dashes denote time periods where the rainfall ranking exceeds 55. Asterisks indicate antecedent periods where rainfall from a tropical cyclone fell across the study area.

events), which were composed of debris flows, debris slides, composite material, creep, and earth flows (Table 3). Historically, these types of landslide events have been strongly tied to heavy rainfall and high soil moisture. Indeed, the median ranking of two-day rainfall totals was more than eight times lower for rock events (x = 785) than for debris events (x = 92; Tables 3 and 4). Nine out of the 19 debris events (i.e., 47%) were associated with heavy concurrent rainfall, and only four of these 19 events were connected with a tropical cyclone passing through the study area (Table 3). Tropical cyclones, however, produced an average of 21.4 landslides and were therefore responsible for 48% of all individual landslides identified in this study. Perhaps the most notable of these were Hurricanes Frances and Ivan, which produced a record number of landslides across western North Carolina over a two-week period in September 2004 (Table 1). Hurricane Frances ranked as the heaviest two-day rainfall event in the climatology, while Hurricane Ivan ranked as the sixth-heaviest event. Two other tropical cyclones in this study produced heavy (i.e., a recurrence interval of one-year or

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Table 4. Same as Table 3, but for Rock Slide, Rock Fall, and Weathered Rock Eventsa
Antecedent precipitation (days prior to rainfall event) Date March 5, 1985 June 25, 1988 April 6, 1989 July 1, 1997 May 11, 1999 June 15, 1999 January 28, 2002 May 30, 2002 November 1, 2003 June 12, 2004 December 12, 2004 Median ranking
a

2-day 785

4 43 590

7 47 52 50 226

14 50 20 317

21 30 29 52 18 209

30 39 51 43 28 101

60 38 44 50 40 59

90 32 35 38 27 21* 51

Note that storm types were not identified for rock events due to the low concurrent rainfall totals. The asterisk indicates antecedent period where rainfall from a tropical cyclone fell across the study area.

greater) concurrent rainfall: Tropical Storm Beryl (seventh-heaviest event) and Hurricane Opal (25th-heaviest event). Five of the 19 debris events were connected with cyclonic-type storms. Three of these events were also tied to heavy concurrent rainfall. Four out of the five cyclonic-type storms were associated with a surface cyclone that originated in the Gulf of Mexico and tracked eastward across the Florida Peninsula and up the Eastern Seaboard. One exception was the cyclonic-type event associated with the November 1977 landslides in Pisgah National Forest. This event was associated with the 22nd-heaviest two-day rainfall total in the climatology. In this case, a strong, slow-moving surface cyclone located beneath a 500 hPa cyclone over the central Gulf Coast moved to the NNE, placing western North Carolina in the northeast quadrant (i.e., cool sector) of the system. An extremely large rain shield with embedded convective bands of heavy rainfall resulted in the locally intense, longduration event (Neary and Swift, 1987). Synoptic-type storms were connected with 7 of the 19 debris events, although only 2 of these events were associated with heavy concurrent rainfall. According to Maddox et al. (1979), synoptic-type storms occur on the warm side of a quasistationary frontal boundary, with the mean steering flow oriented parallel to the front. In this situation, convective cells repeatedly develop and move over the same region, resulting in long-duration rainfall events. Nearly half of the synoptic-type storms in this study were associated with a surface cyclone; heavy rainfall in these cases was connected with storms that formed ahead of a cold front. These cyclones moved slowly across the eastern United States, creating a persistent feed of moisture into western North Carolina. Also present in nearly half of the synoptic-type events

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Fig. 4. Shaded relief map of Macon County, NC and known locations of debris flows (white circles) from the complete NCGS database (as of August 2006). The shaded relief map was constructed from a 6 m pixel resolution light-detecting and ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation model (Wooten et al., 2007, 2008).

was a 500-hPa cyclone located to the WSW of the southern Appalachians, which aided in the middle tropospheric transport of moisture into the region (not shown). Only 2 out of the 19 debris events were connected with isolated storm types, neither of which produced rainfall exceeding the one-year return period. In both cases the synoptic-scale circulation regime was characterized by southerly flow around a subtropical high pressure system off the Atlantic coast (i.e., Bermuda High). This regime was associated with isolated rainfall across the region, particularly along southern and eastern slopes where the regional topography intersects the southerly low-level circulation (Konrad, 1994, 1996). Debris events show a relatively even seasonal distribution, as all months except January experienced at least one landslide event (Fig. 5). Landslide frequencies, however, were skewed strongly toward the late summer and fall as many are connected with the five tropical cyclones that crossed the area during the study period. Synoptic and cyclonic-type events dominated during the winter and spring seasons, and most were connected with relatively few landslides. Localized landslide events occurred in July and October under relatively benign synoptic conditions (e.g., Bermuda High circulation regime). All 19 of the debris events were associated with heavy rainfall over one or more antecedent time periods (Table 3). While nearly half of the events (44%) were tied to heavy rainfall in the four to 14-day period prior to the event, all but one event

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Fig. 5. Monthly frequency of debris events by storm type.

was associated with heavy rainfall during the 90-day period prior to the event. Moreover, 6 of the 19 events (32%) displayed exceptionally wet 90-day antecedent rainfall totals (i.e., exceeding the five-year return period or a rank between 1 and 14). Examination of the median ranking for all debris events reveals that the climatological significance of the cumulative rainfall over the landslide location increased markedly as the antecedent time period became longer (Table 3). In fact, the 90-day antecedent rainfall displays the highest median ranking for all debris events (x = 20), while the two-day concurrent rainfall is tied to the lowest median ranking (x = 92). This underscores the important connection between landslide activity in western North Carolina and wet soils resulting from high antecedent precipitation totals. Eight of the 19 debris events (i.e., 42%) were associated with at least one antecedent period in which rainfall from a tropical cyclone fell across western North Carolina (Table 3). Most significantly, all five of these tropical cyclones, with the exception of Tropical Storm Alberto, produced two-day rainfall that exceeded the two-year return period (i.e., rank between 1 and 27). This suggests that, in addition to triggering landslides directly, tropical cyclones that produce locally heavy rainfall are also effective at saturating the soils to the point where additional rainfall may induce slope movement. In most cases, these tropical cyclones crossed the study area between 30 and 90 days prior to the landslide event. A notable exception is Hurricane Ivan, which crossed western North Carolina less than two weeks after Hurricane Frances.

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Fig. 6. Two-day rainfall totals associated with the 5 May 2003 landslide event (cyclonic-type storm). The dark polygon demarcates the study area where the mean regional rainfall amount was calculated, whereas the asterisks denote the locations of known slope movement.

Table 5. Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Ratios of Local to Regional Scale Rainfall for Each Debris Event (Stratified by Storm Type)
Storm type Synoptic Cyclonic Tropical cyclone Isolated N 7 5 5 2 Mean 5.6 4.9 4.3 9.3 Max 9.1 16.3 9.7 10.3 Min 2.3 1.4 1.9 8.2

Most of the landslide events identified in this study consisted of isolated slope failures (Table 1). The degree to which the isolated nature of the event is due to isolated heavy rainfall or some other agent at a local scale is not clear. To investigate this question, the spatial distribution of rainfall was estimated across the study area during each event and the ratio of the local to regional rainfall totals was calculated (i.e., the local rainfall divided by the regional rainfall). A high ratio indicates markedly heavier rainfall over the landslide location relative to the mean rainfall over the study area (Fig. 6). Only debris events were examined due to the low rainfall totals associated with rock events. Regional rainfall totals for western North Carolina were determined by averaging the two-day rainfall at each recording COOP station in the region. The range of ratios for the 19 debris events (stratified by storm type) is presented in Table 5. In all cases, the ratio of local to regional rainfall was positive, indicating that the rainfall over the landslide location was higher than the mean rainfall across the study area. Cyclonic-type events displayed relatively low ratios, with the

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November 1977 event being a significant exception (i.e., ratio of 16.3). Synoptictype events showed somewhat higher ratios due to the convergence of air and moisture locally along south-facing slopes. Tropical cyclones also exhibited relatively high ratios; however the broad coverage of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Opal (i.e., ratio of 1.9) is reflected in the low mean ratio for all tropical cyclones. Isolated events displayed the highest mean ratio, as expected. It is important to note, however, that the mean two-day rainfall totals associated with isolated events were lower than all other storm types. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS This study has provided a climatological perspective on the rainfall conditions and storm types associated with landslide events in western North Carolina from 1950 to 2004. None of the rock events (i.e., rock slides, rock falls, weathered rock events) were connected with heavy concurrent rainfall and very few were associated with heavy antecedent rainfall. Thus, the climatological analysis of rainfall characteristics focused primarily on the remaining 19 landslide events (i.e., debris events: debris flows, debris slides, earth slides). Nine out of the 19 debris events (i.e., 47%) were tied to heavy concurrent rainfall. Tropical cyclones were responsible for the rainfall connected with four of these events, all of which displayed twoday rainfall totals that exceeded the two-year return period. The significance of cumulative antecedent rainfall, however, suggests that many of the landslides in western North Carolina are relatively deep and may be associated with monthly to seasonal fluctuations in the height of the groundwater table. In these cases, even light to moderate rainfall may supply sufficient water to the debris mass for slope movement. Having knowledge of the depth of slope movements can help in quantifying the contribution of pore pressure capacity thresholds to slope instability, which is further modulated by a combination of geomorphic factors (i.e., limit equilibrium, including shearing force, resisting force, cohesion, and internal friction). A much larger sample of landslide events is needed, however, to determine the sufficiency of various rainfall thresholds to induce slope movement. All of the debris events were connected with locally heavier rainfall compared to the mean rainfall across the entire study area (i.e., local to regional scale rainfall ratio > 1). This suggests that landslides in western North Carolina are more likely to initiate along slopes that are most susceptible to orographic enhancement of rainfall (i.e., locally heavy rainfall embedded in a broader rain shield). Wooten et al. (2008) suggest that this enhancement may be maximized at higher elevations, although a more directed long-term study is needed to address this hypothesis. Such a study would need to examine this connection in conjunction with the prevailing synoptic-scale circulation, as the relationship between topography and precipitation varies according to the wind direction (Konrad, 1996). The ratios presented in this study should be interpreted with caution due to the sparse network of COOP stations across the study area. High-resolution (4 km) radar-derived estimates of rainfall for landslides in the last decade of the study period may be used to better discern the spatial distribution of concurrent and antecedent rainfall connected with these events. Although difficulties exist in deriving accurate rainfall amounts in

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mountainous regions using radar data (e.g., the blocking effect of the topography), preliminary analysis of heavy convective rain bands associated with Hurricane Ivan show good agreement with nearby ground-based rain gauges (Wooten et al., 2008). Cyclonic-type storms, which were not included in the original Maddox et al. (1979) classification scheme, contributed to one-third of the debris events associated with heavy concurrent rainfall. In these cases, heavy rainfall in the cool sector of a surface cyclone was likely enhanced through orographic lifting, as the track of the cyclone from the SSW generally leads to easterly winds and upslope flow along the southeast escarpment. Indeed, many debris events associated with cyclonic storms initiated along southeast-facing slopes. One exception was the November 1977 event in Pisgah National Forest, where a number of debris flows in the Bent Creek area initiated on NNE-facing slopes. In some cases, a large fraction of the rainfall over the southern Appalachians occurred on the backside (i.e., WNW quadrant) of the surface cyclone. Moreover, cyclonic-type storms accounted for many of the landslides that occurred during the cool season, a time when landslide activity in western North Carolina has historically been considered relatively quiescent (Witt, 2005). Only 17% of all landslides events (i.e., rock and debris events) were associated with tropical cyclones; however, the tropical cyclones that passed through the area produced numerous landslides and were responsible for 48% of the landslide sample. The attributes of these tropical cyclones may be significant in dictating how many landslides develop. Konrad et al. (2002) determined the climatological features of tropical cyclones that contribute most significantly to rainfall totals over various spatial scales. In their study, rainfall totals over the smallest scales were most highly correlated with the speed of movement of the cyclone. Indeed, three of the tropical cyclones in the present study (i.e., Alberto, Beryl, Frances) were slowmoving (i.e., speed of movement below the 50th percentile). On the other hand, although Hurricane Opal was generally fast-moving (i.e., 89th percentile), it was a strong (i.e., peak storm winds in the 96th percentile) and large (i.e., area within the outermost closed isobar in the 99th percentile) hurricane that interacted with midlatitude features to produce benchmark rainfall totals over a variety of basin sizes (Konrad, 2001; Konrad et al., 2002). Hurricane Ivan possessed characteristics similar to Opal, yet it was the recordbreaking rainfall from Hurricane Frances less than two weeks earlier that resulted in one of the worst landslide outbreaks in recent history across the southern Appalachian Mountains (Table 1; Witt, 2005; Wooten et al., 2008). Indeed, some of the most destructive landslide events in western North Carolina during the 20th century (i.e., 1916, 1940, 2004) were connected with major storm systems that crossed the region within two weeks of each other (Witt, 2005). In particular, the remnants of a tropical cyclone that crossed western North Carolina in August 1940 initiated over 2000 landslides in Watauga County alone, with numerous other large landslide events in counties along the southeastern escarpment (Wooten et al., 2008). Such numbers underscore the importance of tropical cyclones as potential triggering events. Unfortunately, the lack of available precipitation data precluded examination of the 1940 event in this study. The occurrence of major precipitation events in short succession has also been noted for major flooding events across the

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state of North Carolina during approximately the same time period (i.e., the occurrence of a precursor and prime event; Robinson, 2003). With regard to the landslide events identified in this study, antecedent (i.e., precursor) tropical cyclones generally produced heavy rainfall across the region between 30 and 90 days prior to the prime event. In cases not involving an antecedent tropical cyclone, the fact that rainfall was more significant over longer time periods (i.e., 30 to 90 days) compared to shorter time periods (i.e., four to 21 days) suggests that antecedent rainfall patterns are not tied to one or a short sequence of storms but rather to a large-scale circulation pattern that promotes a seasonally wet environment. A more directed study is needed to address this possibility. Moreover, it is likely that rainfall conditions over longer antecedent time periods (i.e., beyond 90 days) are most strongly correlated with landslide activity in western North Carolina. Because there are many factors that influence landslide activity, rainfall characteristics alone cannot be used to predict their occurrence. However, the results of this study will hopefully aid in identifying the weather conditions and critical time periods where rainfall should be closely monitored. Acknowledgments: We gratefully acknowledge Rick Wooten of the NCGS for assisting us with the landslide data and for providing comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We appreciate the efforts of two anonymous reviewers, who provided helpful suggestions. NCGS data were acquired through a grant from the U.S. Forest Service awarded to Lawrence Band. Precipitation data were acquired through a grant with the National Science Foundation (BCS-9911315) awarded to Charles Konrad. REFERENCES Eschner, A. R. and Patric, J. H. (1982) Debris avalanches in eastern upland forests. Journal of Forestry, Vol. 80, 343347. Giordano, L. A. and Fritsch, J. M. (1991) Strong tornadoes and flash flood producing rainstorms during the warm seasons in the mid-Atlantic region. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 6, 437455. Godt, J. W., Baum, R. L., and Chleborad, A. F. (2006) Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 31, 97110. Hirschboeck, K. K., Ely, L. L., and Maddox, R. A. (2000) Hydroclimatology of meteorologic floods. In E. E. Wohl, ed., Inland Flood Hazards. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 3972. Konrad, C. E. (1994) Moisture trajectories associated with heavy rainfall over the interior southeastern United States. Physical Geography, Vol. 94, 227248. Konrad, C. E. (1996) Relationships between precipitation event types and topography in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains of the southeastern USA. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 16, 4962. Konrad, C. E. (2001) The most extreme precipitation events over the eastern United States from 1950 to 1996: Considerations of scale. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 2, 309325.

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Konrad, C. E., Meaux, M. F., and Meaux, D. A. (2002) Relationships between tropical cyclone attributes and precipitation totals: Considerations of scale. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 22, 237247. Maddox, R. A., Chappell, C. F., and Hoxit, L. R. (1979) Synoptic and mesoscale aspects of flash flood events. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 60, 115123. Neary, D. G. and Swift, L. W. (1987) Rainfall thresholds for triggering a debris avalanching event in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Reviews in Engineering Geology, Vol. 7, 8192. Ritter, D. F., Kochel, R. C., and Miller, J. R. (2002) Process Geomorphology. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill. Robinson, P. J. (2003) Atmospheric circulation and inland flooding in Twentieth Century North Carolina, USA: Implications for climate change impacts? Natural Hazards, Vol. 29, 155172. Varnes, D. J. (1978) Slope movement types and processes. In R. Schuster and L. Krizak, eds., Landslide Analysis and Control. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board Special Report No. 176, National Academy of Sciences, 1133. Wieczorek, G. F., Mossar, G. S., and Morgan, B. A. (2004) Regional debris flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province, USA. Landslides, Vol. 1, 5359. Witt, A. C. (2005) A brief history of debris flow occurrence in the French Broad River Watershed, Western North Carolina. The North Carolina Geographer, Vol. 13, 5982. Wooten, R. M., Latham, R. S., Witt, A. C., Gillon, K. A., Douglas, T. J., Fuemmeler, S. J., Bauer, J. B., and Reid, J. C. (2007) Landslide hazards and landslide mapping in North Carolina. In V. R. Shaefer, R. L. Schuster, and A. K. Turner, eds., 1st North American Landslide Conference. Vail, CO: 458471. Wooten, R. M., Gillon, K. A., Witt, A. C., Latham, R. S., Douglas, T. J., Bauer, J. B., Fuemmeler, S. J., and Lee, L. G. (2008) Geologic, geomorphic, and meteorological aspects of debris flows triggered by Hurricanes Frances and Ivan during September 2004 in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina (southeastern USA). Landslides, Vol. 5, 3144. Yarnal, B. (1993) Synoptic Climatology in Environmental Analysis. London, UK: Belhaven Press.