Follow-up to the RSE presentation to the Scottish Parliaments Economy, Energy and Tourism Committees Energy Inquiry: Electricity

Generation Statistics 2002-06

1. The RSEs Energy Group that presented to the Committee on 5th March 2008 agreed that they would provide the Committee with a time-series of energy delivered to the electricity grid in Scotland, concentrating on the contribution of renewable sources. Professor Jim McDonald FRSE and his group at the University of Strathclydes Institute for Energy and Environment have kindly undertaken this task. Their report follows below. 2. The readily available statistics cover the years 2002-2006. The 2007 figures are not yet available. The tables for each year show the contributions of the major generation technologies and the contribution of individual technologies to total renewable generation. 3. Trends renewables. The reduction in nuclear generation from 38% of the total in 2005 to 26% in 2006 (fluctuation due to planned and unplanned outages at Scottish nuclear plants) was compensated for by an increase in coal generation from 25% in 2005 to 33% in 2006, with a concomitant increase in carbon emissions. Apart from these fluctuations, the overall pattern of generation has shown little systematic change. The contribution from renewables remains small notwithstanding the growth of onshore wind generation. 4. The group strongly advocates that the Committee should recommend the creation of an independent, authoritative audit body responsible for collecting and publishing reliable energy statistics. At the moment there are considerable uncertainties and gaps in the available data that need to be resolved if public policy is to be well-informed and if progress towards agreed targets is to be monitored and adjusted. It is important that we agree about the facts and then debate what should be done, rather than arguing about the facts. The Royal Society of Edinburgh would be happy to comment further on the establishment of such a body if required. 5. As climate policy is a key driver for energy policy, the RSE argued, in its response to the consultation on the Scottish Climate Change Bill, for an independent, rigorous auditing of greenhouse gas emissions. We suggest that the two audit functions, of energy and emissions, should be well-integrated, preferably by the same body. A copy of the Societys response to the consultation on a Scottish Climate Change Bill, which addresses the energy/emissions issue and the auditing of emissions, can be found at: http://www.royalsoced.org.uk/govt_responses/2008_files.htm Geoffrey Boulton General Secretary 1 May 2008

The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotlands National Academy, is Scottish Charity No. SC000470

Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid - 2002-2006

Robert A. F. Currie, Iain D. Broadfoot, Graham W. Ault, James R. McDonald Institute for Energy and Environment University of Strathclyde
Introduction This paper presents statistics about the deployment and performance of Scottish-based gridconnected generation from 2002 to 2006. It is derived from publicly available data and 1 information, much of which has come directly from Scottish Government Statistics , the Digest 2 of United Kingdom Energy Statistics (DUKES) and Renewables Obligation Annual Reports3 published by Ofgem. The Renewables Obligation Annual Reports are published for each financial year, but the data refers to the calendar year beginning three months prior to the financial year. Statistics are given for the installed capacity (MW) and electrical energy production (GWh) of major power producers and renewable generators. It should be noted that the categories that are accredited for the Renewables Obligation have changed between 2002 and 2006. Different sources also report different levels of installed renewable capacity over the period, mainly due to the different degrees to which connected, consented and under-construction renewable generators are recognised. Reporting variations and the application of differing terminology means it is not possible to determine how accurate the figures published by the Scottish Executive are for the contribution of renewable generators to the total electrical energy generated in Scotland. The statistics The paper presents publicly available statistics designed to present as accurate as currently possible the changes in the provision of energy to the grid in Scotland between 2002 and 2006. (It should be noted that some values are rounded, which explains why total figures do not always match). The data suffers from the following drawbacks: The actual total operational capacity of each category of generation in each annual period cannot be confirmed. DUKES provide data on the capacity of major power producers in Scotland but do not provide a comprehensive breakdown of the generation capacity connected to the distribution network. The category of Declared Net Capability (DNC) is used to present the connected capacity of major power producers in Scotland from 2002-2005 and Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) for 2006. The use of differing terminology is a source of uncertainty in the statistics. Further explanation of terminology can be found on National Grids website4. Hydro-Electric power stations are the only renewable generator listed in the DUKES statistics for installed capacity of major power producers. The DUKES statistics presented for installed capacity of major power producers in Scotland do not provide the installed capacity of renewable energy based generators. It is to be expected that the renewable generation that does exist will be ROC accredited. ROC Annual Reports have been used to determine the installed capacity and performance of Scottish-based renewable generation.
1 2

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/index.html 3 http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Pages/RenewablObl.aspx 4 http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/sys_06/default.asp?action=mnch3_22.htm&Node=SYS&Snode=3_22&Exp=Y

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

Natural flow hydro electric generators are only ROC accredited if under 20MW capacity (Declared Net Capacity). Systems with greater capacity than 20MW are not thought to need subsidy. Unless the operational capacity of each natural flow hydro station below and above 20MW is known it will not be possible either to determine the % of electricity generated by Hydro or other renewable energy sources. The correct method of defining the operational capacity of each category of generation must be identified. Arrangements for meeting peak demand in Scotland have not been determined. The following section shows, for each year between 2002 and 2006, the installed capacity and the contribution to the grid from all sources, with a breakdown between different renewable sources. The paper then presents the outcome of submitted proposals for wind farms between 2004 and 2007.

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

2002 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Table 1: Declared Net Capability of major power producers in Scotland, 2002 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,069 53.55 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,440 25.78 Gas turbine and oil engines 83 0.877 Hydro Natural Flow 1,173 12.39 Hydro Pumped Storage 700 7.4 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 2: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2002 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 15828 31.88 Coal 14833 29.87 Gas 11034 22.22 Oil 2210 4.45 Hydro Pumped Storage 622 1.25 Hydro Natural Flow 4455 8.97 Other Renewables 672 1.35 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Generator Technology Table 3: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2002 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated Biomass 12.5 33.27 3 Co-firing 14.16 44.75 4 Hydro <20MW 160.6 365.38 36 Landfill Gas 20.89 96.53 10 Micro Hydro 9.91 39.77 4 Onshore Wind 192.89 430.44 43 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/9648-4405.pdf

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

2003 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Table 4: Declared Net Capability of major power producers in Scotland, 2003 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,070 53.37 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,440 25.68 Gas turbine and oil engines 150 1.58 Hydro Natural Flow 1,140 12 Hydro Pumped Storage 700 7.37 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 5: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2003 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 18934 37.16 Coal 14566 29.43 Gas 10025 20.25 Oil 2034 4.11 Hydro Pumped Storage 670 1.35 Hydro Natural Flow 2989 6.04 Other Renewables 823 1.66 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Generator Technology Table 6: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2003 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated Biomass 12.67 13.91 1 Co-firing 14.16 74.794 4 Hydro <20MW 160.6 1129.317 58 Landfill Gas 20.89 127.57 7 Micro Hydro 9.91 33.09 2 Onshore Wind 192.89 552.23 29 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/9648-4405.pdf

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

2004 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Table 7: Declared Net Capability of major power producers in Scotland, 2004 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,119 53.57 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,440 25.54 Gas turbine and oil engines 152 1.6 Hydro Natural Flow 1,144 11.97 Hydro Pumped Storage 700 7.33 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 8: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2004 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 18013 35.26 Coal 13080 25.60 Gas 11033 21.59 Oil 2274 4.45 Hydro Pumped Storage 786 1.54 Hydro Natural Flow 4544 8.89 Other Renewables 1361 2.66 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Generator Technology Table 9: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2004 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated Biomass 12.68 54 2 Co-firing 34.56 76 2 Hydro <20MW 439.03 1772 57 Landfill Gas 44.31 221 7 Micro Hydro 12.3 44 1 Onshore Wind 504.2 933 30 PV 0.001 00 0 Sewage gas 1 0 0 Wave 0.75 0 0 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/14345-ROannualreport.pdf

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

2005 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Table 10: Declared Net Capability of major power producers in Scotland, 2005 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,103 53.51 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,440 25.58 Gas turbine and oil engines 152 1.59 Hydro Natural Flow 1,142 11.97 Hydro Pumped Storage 700 7.34 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 11: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2005 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 18681 37.93 Coal 12186 24.74 Gas 9371 19.03 Oil 1902 3.86 Hydro Pumped Storage 643 1.31 Hydro Natural Flow 4588 9.32 Other Renewables 1876 3.81 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Generator Technology Table 12: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2005 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated ACT 0.34 0 0 Biomass 12.98 49 1 Co-firing 157.88 158 4 Hydro <20MW 484.58 1754 48 Landfill Gas 50.715 280 8 Micro Hydro 12.52 43 1 Onshore Wind 912.505 1340 37 PV 0.02 0 0 Sewage gas 1 3 0 Wave 0.75 0 0 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/14345-ROannualreport.pdf

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

2006 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Table 13: Transmission Entry Capacity of major power producers in Scotland, 2006 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,119 52.83 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,410 24.87 Gas turbine and oil engines 263 2.71 Hydro Natural Flow 1,158 11.95 Hydro Pumped Storage 740 7.64 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 14: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2006 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 14141 26.38 Coal 17547 32.73 Gas 11634 21.70 Oil 2141 3.99 Hydro Pumped Storage 1184 2.21 Hydro Natural Flow 4225 7.88 Other Renewables 2737 5.11 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Table 15: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2006 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated ACT 0.34 1.68 0.03 Biomass 12.98 62.49 1.19 Co-firing 76.2 117 2.23 Hydro <20MW 491.36 2163.64 41.31 Landfill Gas 78.22 403.68 7.71 Micro Hydro 13.04 52.89 1 Onshore Wind 1102.01 2426.98 46.33 PV 0.055 0.016 0 Sewage gas 3.7 9.55 0.18 Wave 1.25 0.009 0 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/Annual%20report%202006-07.pdf Generator Technology

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

Wind Energy in Scotland

Wind energy has been the fastest growing form of renewable generation to be connected to the Scottish transmission and distribution infrastructure. The growth of Scottish-based wind generation is shown below together with current statistics for wind farms in operation, in construction, consented and in planning.

THE GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY IN SCOTLAND FROM 2004-2007

Table 16: Annual totals for submitted, approved, refused and built wind farms (MW) in Scotland between 2004-2007 Submitted (MW) Approved (MW) Refused (MW) Built (MW) On-shore Off-shore On-shore Off-shore On-shore Off-shore On-shore Off-shore 2004 2250.3 0 468.58 0 49.50 0 152.43 0 2005 1779.2 0 399.6 0 536.05 0 217.95 0 2006 1071.85 10 653.35 10 256.3 0 367.55 0 2007 567.77 0 620.15 0 512.1 0 226.95 10 Source: http://www.bwea.com/ukwed/index.asp

Scottish Wind Energy Statistics

WIND ENERGY IN SCOTLAND 2008

Status Operational In Construction Consented In Planning

Table 17: Wind Energy in Scotland, 2008 On-shore (MW) Off-shore (MW) 1,171.28 (54 farms) 10 (1 farm) 651.9 (13 farms) 180 (2 farms) 1,474.45 (48 farms) 0 4,146.72 (90 farms) 0 Source: http://www.bwea.com/ukwed/index.asp

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

Statistical issues
A more comprehensive set of statistics are clearly required. Such a compilation should take the following into account: The operational capacity of each generation source in Scotland must be determined for each annual period. All statistics should be reported as transparently as possible and aggregated to address concerns regarding commercial sensitivity. A more detailed statistical analysis of the data regarding renewable and non-renewable energy sources is required. The categories used to describe generator connections to transmission and distribution networks should be carefully reviewed to determine the actual capacity installed. Such figures should be compared to data published by the British Wind Energy Association and other industry bodies. To determine the actual % of Scotlands generated electricity that comes from each source (both renewable and non-renewable) will require the capacity of natural flow hydro power stations above and below 20MW to be known and the corresponding energy production of each group. The national energy statistics should only include operational generators, additional data should be supplied on planned, consented and in construction generators. The actual performance of each generation source (both renewable and non-renewable) should be monitored to determine the annual capacity factor of each and the contribution to the electricity generated in Scotland. Assumptions regarding capacity factor should not be used to provide the share of electricity generated from renewables. It is important that the true performance of a multisource renewable portfolio is assed by technology and for the renewable sector as a whole.

Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008

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