Part III : Some Questions About Oil Price…

Topics

1. Oil Reserved,
Oil Price History,
Population in Key Oil production countries in Middle East.

1. What the Investment broker tell you,

and not telling you.

3. Others…
Proved oil reserves at end 2003
 Crude oil prices since 1861

Note: Oil Price in the 50s & 60s was

more than USD10 as adjusted dollars
($2003).
kb

Gb
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Saudi Arabia

Production

Discovery
Saudi Arabia
10000 120

100
8000

80
6000
60
4000
40

2000
20

0 0
1930195019701990201020302050

Saudi Arabia Population

Population Growth 1950-2002:
35,000 1950: 3,860,000
30,000 2002: 23,513,000
25,000
Population in Thousands

20,000
15,000 6.1 times the population
10,000
5,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
kb/

(
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Iran

Gb
Production

Discovery
Iran
7000 30

6000 25

5000
20
4000
15
3000
10
2000

1000 5

0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Iran Population
Population Growth 1950-2002:
80,000 1950: 16,357,000
Population in Thousands

70,000
60,000
2002: 67,538,000
50,000
40,000
4.1 times the population
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
 G
(shaded)
Production
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Iraq

Discovery
Iraq
Peace Scenario

kb/d
5000 30

25
4000

20
3000

Gb
15
2000
10
Production

1000
5

Discovery
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Iraq
War Scenario
5000 30
4500
25
4000
3500
20
3000
2500 15
2000
10
1500
1000
5
500
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Iraq Population
Population Growth 1950-2002:
35000
1950: 5,163,000
30000
2002: 24,004,000
Population in Thousand

25000
20000
15000
10000
4.6 times the population
5000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
kb/

(
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Kuwait

Gb
Production

Discovery
Kuwait
3000 70

2500 60

50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20

500 10

0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Kuwait Population
Population Growth 1950-2002:
Population in Thousands

3000 1950: 145,000

2500 2002: 2,112,000
2000

1500
14.6 times the population
1000

500

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
 Question

Since the starting of the crude oil production, the population of the key Oil Exporting Countries in
Middle East been increased many times…

Most of those countries rely mainly on Crude Oil export and oil related industries (such as petrol
chemical, fertilizer, plastic, etc).

Unless the Oil price increase proportional to the population growth… It means those people live
in those countries is getting poorer (per person).!

And, since, they should know their oil field is going to run dry one day, should they sell it cheaper
when there is no huge oil reserve discovery in these few decades?

A Saudi saying,
"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
This is what the Investment Broker Tell You – 20 reasons why Oil price went up…

Factors Affecting Crude Prices on NYMEX

OPEC output DOE / API Stocks Iraq Weather / Storms Gasoline
Terrorism Refinery fires Nigeria Funds Buying Russia
Heating Oil Global Demand Venezuela Norw ay China
Natural Gas Israel US Dollar Iran SPR

100%
Venezuela, 2%
Russia, 3%
90% Funds Buying, 4%
Nigeria, 5%
80% Refinery fires, 5%
Terrorism, 6%
70% Gasoline, 6%
Weather, 7%
60%
50% Iraq, 16%

40% DOE / API Stocks,

30% 18%

20% OPEC output, 18%

10%
0%

1
Further Breakdown as Supply vs Demand

Supply Demand
 Year in Review - Price Fluctuations

NYMEX WTI Oct 2003-Sep 2004 ($/bbl)

55
OPEC announces 1.5mbd quota OPEC Meets
increase for July/August
50
IEA puts 2004 demand growth at 2mbd, Iraq exports recover
Yukos chief arrested on "highest in 16 years" to over 1mbd
tax charges (2mbd)
45
Gasoline surges, overall US S&P warns of Yukos Norway workers'
demand above forecast meltdown strike (1mbd)

40
No change in OPEC output US gasoline demand
despite new quota tops out
35
Iraq exports disrupted
daily (0.3mbd)
30
The price
lowest now….as
US crude stocks
since 1975 25 Oct 2004
Producers say prices
"beyond their control"
25
China demand forecast OPEC basket beats target range Hurricane Ivan
to surge 9% in 2004 for 18 straight weeks (1mbd)
20
Surprise OPEC quota cut
(0.9mbd eff Nov 1)
15
2-Sep-03 2-Dec-03 2-Mar-04 2-Jun-04 2-Sep-04
This is what You don’t find in the main stream news
 Others… Any Business Impact???

S&P500 Index, 1960 -2004

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