Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The success of this study was undoubtedly ensured by the support of a lot of people, many of whom I would like to acknowledge. First and foremost, special thanks go to my supervisor, Prof. P. P. Ghosh for all his willingness to respond to my questions, support, and constructive criticism and guidance in completing this report. He helped and encouraged me a lot in this research work & safeguarded the completion of this research and supported the purpose of my study right from the beginning. The supporting teacher often invested additional time in the project and did everything in his power to ensure the quality of the project which resulted in a great impact on the success of this work. Thanks to my friend Ghanshyam Agarwal, student of ICFAI, who acted as an advisor of the study. He also helped me in calculating value of Beta in the project. It was very difficult to find the right words to express what a great honour it was for me to work with two extremely courageous and open-minded men (as mentioned above) who inspired & appreciated me a lot and without whose help I could not have finished this project. The data for the project has been collected from various sources like magazines, newspapers, websites, books etc. for a detailed study of the subject. Thank you all for your kind support, guidance, comments on my research during the long process of evaluating the project in the field and writing up the results. My final acknowledgement is to my parents who always supported me in my aims and goals.
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METHODOLOGY
The data used for this project preparation has 2 parts :
PRIMARY DATA
Lack of proper sources to reach and to have a discussion with the people at higher post made it difficult to collect primary data. On the other hand massive time constraint also created problem for the purpose of gathering the views of people at higher post from various industries across the board. So I approached my supervisor Prof. P. P. Ghosh and one of my friends named Ghanshyam Agarwal for giving their views about the paper industry. So I would like to thank them for taking out some time for me from their precious time and share their views and projecting the study.
SECONDARY DATA
In this research work most of the content has been obtained from secondary sources like newspapers, magazines, books websites etc., which helped for calculation of various terms used for the evaluation purpose in course of security analysis for paper industries.
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KEY INDICATORS
Indicator Paper: Production Paper: Export value Paper: Import value Paper: Sales value Paper: Market size Paper: Domestic consumption Units Tonnes Rs.crore Rs.crore Rs.crore Rs.crore Rs.crore Dec-01 4833665 559.3 662.8 12600 13262.8 12703.5 Dec-02 4950302 614.3 648.4 13400 14048.4 13434.1 Dec-03 5239181 812.6 745.1 14000 14745.1 13932.5 Dec-04 5556017 712.5 1057.8 15500 16557.8 15845.4 Dec-05 5792846 870.9 1046.2 16000 17046.2 16175.3
VALUATION OF FIRM
Valuation of a firm is done in order to know the intrinsic value of a firm. Knowing what an asset is worth and what determines that value, in deciding on the appropriate price to pay or receive is the main task for the valuation. We should not buy assets for aesthetic or emotional reasons rather we must buy financial assets after comparing the cash flows that we expect to receive from them with the initial cash outflow. Consequently, perceptions of value have to be backed up by reality, which implies that the price we pay for any asset should reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate. The main objective of any valuation is to know whether the underlying assets is undervalued or overvalued. If it is undervalued then its purchased and on the other hand if its overvalued then it is sold. Here one assumption is made by the analyst that the market is inefficient and make mistake in assessing the value. All the information is not reflected in the market price and it take time for the market to absorb all the fundamental information. There are various models, by which we can calculate the intrinsic value of assets such as : 1. Discounted cash flow method, 2. Relative method, etc.
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The demand is growing @ 7% to 8% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) per Annum. Demand in Million tonnes is 8.100 by 2006-07, 8.500 by 2007-08 and 9.000 by 2008-09 respectively.
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ORGANISATIONAL OVERVIEW
ANDHRA PRADESH PAPER MILLS LTD.
Incorporated on 29th June 1964 as "The Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills Ltd." at Rajahmundry. The Certificate of Commencement of business was obtained on 10th July 1964. Formed with infusion of funds and high caliber management of the well-known industrial house of Bangurs of Calcutta, who have interests in textile manufacturing, tea plantation, wind energy generation and trading and investment business other than paper. In 2001, Coastal Papers Ltd was taken over by the company. The production capacity of both the units put together is 1,53,500 TPA. Eight paper machines installed at the two locations which produce papers of different M.F & M.G varieties in the range of 21 to 250 GSM as well as newsprint. With the commissioning of largest continuous digester in the country, the total bleached pulp production at APPM (Unit Rajahmundry) is 1,81,500 TPA. The estimated paper production will increase to 1,74,500 TPA after the completion of the paper machine modernization plan. Provides direct employment to over 4000 families. Moreover, the company provides livelihood to over 10,000 families through indirect job opportunities.
A plant to manufacture 60,000 tonnes per year of industrial packaging board in Gujarat is under implementation. The plants currently operate at more than 120% capacity utilisation with an aggregate annual output of over 180,000 tonnes per year of Paper and Pulp, using contemporary technology.
Produce international quality coated art paper and boards, being marketed in the brand name of JK Cote. Various brand names, JK Copier, JK Excel Bond, JK Bond, JK Savannah, JK Copier Plus and JK Easy Copier, where JK Copier is the Company's flagship brand. Sells through a nationwide distribution network of approximately 100 distributors and 2500 dealers. Only Company in the industry with such a large share of branded products in its portfolio. Environment-friendly technologies. Both the units of the Company are ISO 14001 certified for their eco-friendly operations. In-house research programme, have covered more than 45,000 hectares of land. Helping very large number of farmers in the states of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra to improve their economic well being. Export footprint for high value branded products in the Middle East, South East Asia, SAARC and various African countries.
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looking ahead and is sensitive to meet the emerging challenges and trends. Actively engaged in Research and Development to design and develop the products for tomorrows needs. Has a progressive outlook that will take it through a second innings, with goals, plans and a vision to take it forward through the next 50 years. Comprises rich goodwill, process and product knowledge, trend reading capability and distribution depth. Designed to manufacture 18,000 MT per year of writing, printing and packaging paper. Implemented the Crash program in 1974 to increase production capacity to 60,000 TPA against the license issued in July 1972 for 60,000 TPA. The paper industry has been de-licensed from July 1997. The production capacity has increased to 119750 TPA after successful completion of modernization / expansion program in 1999. Thirteen awards conferred by the National Productivity Council (Government of India) and other organizations including Chemical & Allied Products, Export Promotion Council.
Excellent track record of timely repayment of loans/ lease rentals to financial institutions and leasing companies and has maintained such record even in the recession period to which this industry has been subjected many a times. This has been highly appreciated by the financial institutions & lessors.
The performance of the company during the last 5 years period was as under: YEAR ENDED 31st MARCH 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 PRODUCTION (PAPER & BOARD) [in M.T.] 1,63,714 1,73,070 1,76,221 1,78,871 1,69,891 NET SALES WITH EXCISE DUTY 491.84 533.35 606.84 619.44 652.66 GROSS PROFIT [Rs. in Crores] 60.57 56.48 69.22 95.52 114.38
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Three companies that I have chosen in this sector are as follows1. ANDHRA PRADESH PAPER MILLS LTD. 2. JK PAPER MILLS LTD. 3. WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD. The Equity capitalization of the Paper Industry is around Rs. 778 crore. For the purpose of valuation of companies we have chosen: 1. Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills whose equity capital is Rs. 25.73 crore which is medium sized company as compared to the industry, 2. JK Paper Mill whose Equity capital is Rs. 78.15 crore which is a large player in the industry and 3. West Coast Paper whose equity capital is Rs. 11.48 crore which is a smaller player. The companies of different sizes based upon the equity capitalization are chose for the purpose of analysis to reflect a true picture of the whole paper industry as far as possible. This enabled me to know the insights of the policies and management style of these companies which have a direct impact on the financials of the companies like whether the companys growth rate is above or below the industrys growth rate, the trend of the growth in sales revenue, profit after tax, etc.
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DISCOUNT RATE
Discount rate is the rate which is used to calculate the present value of future cash flow. Generally weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is used as a discount rate to calculate the value of a firm, while cost of equity is used to calculate the value of equity. Cost of equity is the minimum rate of return required by the equity shareholders. It can be calculated by using Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM). CAPM was developed by William F Sharpe, John Lintner and Jan Mossin. The CAPM establishes a linear relationship between the required rate of return of a security and its systematic risk or beta. The CAPM is represented mathematically by Kj = Rf + Bj (Km Rf) Where, Kj Rf Bj Km = = = = required rate of return on security j Risk-free rate of return Beta coefficient of security j Return on market portfolio
ASSUMPTIONS OF CAPM
Investors are risk-averse and use the expected rate of return and standard deviation of return as appropriate measures of return and risk respectively for their stocks. Investors make their investment decisions based on a single-period horizon. Transaction costs in financial markets are low enough to ignore and assets can be bought and sold in any unit desired. The investor is limited only by his wealth and the price of the asset. Taxes do not affect the choice of buying assets.
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valuation of a firm I need to discount the expected free cash flow generating from the firm in the coming five to six years).
For example for the year of 2006-07, 3rd April, 2006 Nifty was 3473.3 and on 31st March, 2007 was 3821.55 so yearly returns is x 100 % = 10.02%
Similarly I calculated the yearly return of other years from 2002 to 2007 as shown in TABLE 1 below and found their average as 39.35%. TABLE 1 NIFTY YEAR 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 OPENING POINT (A) 984.30 1,819.65 2,067.65 3,473.30 3,633.60 CLOSING POINT (B) (C ) = (B)-(A) 1,771.90 2,035.65 3,402.55 3,821.55 4,734.50 787.60 216.00 1,334.90 348.25 1,100.90 AVERAGE (C )*100 / (A) 80.02% 11.87% 64.56% 10.03% 30.30% 39.35%
security will increase by 20%. A high beta indicates that company is a risky proposition for the investment purpose. A low beta indicates that investment is comparatively less risky than the entire stock market taken as a whole. Since risk and return are directly related, the return from high beta related companies shall be higher than that of low beta companies. Beta of a stock is calculated by using the formula _ _ _ _ _ (where x refers to Equity Stock and z to market) COVARIANCE Covariance is applied to the annual rates of return of different investments, to measure the correlation of their year to year fluctuations in performance. Covariance (x, z) = 1/n * (x i x ave) * (z i z ave) _ _ _ _ _ (where the terms x i and z i are actual values of the annual rates of return of equity stock and market respectively, taken over several years, n is the total number of values of x i and z i used, and x ave and z ave are the average values of x i and z i) VARIANCE Variance is applied to the annual rate of return of an investment, to measure the investment's volatility, or "risk". Variance (z) = 1/n * (z i z ave)2 _ _ _ _ _ (where the terms z i are actual values of the markets annual rate of return, taken over several years, n is the number of values of z used, and z ave is the average value of the z I) Beta of these three companies has been calculated and shown in TABLE 5 below.
i
COST OF EQUITY
Now after knowing all the three factors that are required to calculate the cost of equity I have calculate it using the formula Kj = Rf + Bj (Km Rf) TABLE 2 COMPANY NAME AP PAPER MILLS JK PAPER MILLS WEST COAST
ST. XAVIERS COLLEGE - KOLKATA
So cost of equity of all the companies has been shown in TABLE 5 below.
So weight of equity and debt for all the companies has been calculated and shown in the TABLE 5 below.
DISCOUNTING RATE
Now the formula for calculating discounting rate is: (Cost of equity wt. of equity) + (cost of debt wt. of debt) (1 tax rate) Here tax is assumed to be 35 %. Therefore 1 tax rate = 65 %
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TABLE 4 COST OF WEIGHT OF EQUITY DEBT EQUITY DEBT (A) (C) (B) (D) 18.71 13.3 0.58 0.42 30.14 14 0.68 0.32 16.49 18.4 0.47 0.53 DISCOUNTING RATE (A)*(B) + (C)*(D)*65% 13.07% 16.46% 14.23%
So WACC of all the companies has been calculated and shown in TABLE 5 below.
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Similarly for JK PAPER MILLS LTD. CAGR has been calculated as 723.99 (1+g)4 = 999.08 Or, Or, Or, (1+g)4 = 999.08/723.99 = 1.3799 1+g = (1.3799)1/4 = 1.0838 g = 1.0838 1 = 0.0838 = 8.38% 575.78 (1+g)4 = 652.83 Or, Or, Or, (1+g)4 = 652.83/575.78 = 1.1325 1+g = (1.1325)1/4 = 1.0316 g = 1.0316 1 = 0.0316 = 3.16% So CAGR of all the companies has been calculated and shown in TABLE 6 below.
For WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD. CAGR has been calculated as
SALES FORECASTING
Keeping the same growth rate of the sales I have forecasted the sales for the coming five years as sales for the year 2009 of ANDHRA PRADESH is sales of the year 2008 (1+ g) = Rs. 628.24 (1+0.0873) cr. = Rs. 725.57 cr. Similarly sales of JK PAPER MILLS LTD. for the year 2009 =Rs. 999.08 (1+0.0838) cr. = Rs. 1095.49 cr. For WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD. Sales for 2009 =Rs. 652.83 (1+0.0316) cr. = Rs. 689.47 cr. Similarly sales for the other years i.e. from 2010 to 2013 and for all the companies have been calculated as shown in the annexure.
EXPENSES FORECASTING
To calculate the forecast expenses at first we have calculate the percentage of each and every expenses in terms of sales for the previous five years i.e. from the year 2004 to the year 2008 as shown in the annexure. For example sales & other income of ANDHRA PRADESH for the year 2008 are Rs. 667.31 cr. and raw materials cost is Rs. 339.08 cr. so percentage of raw material in terms of sales is calculated as : (339.08 100) /(667.31) = 50.81 percentage.
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Similarly for JK PAPER MILLS LTD. percentage of raw material in terms of sales has been calculated as : (457.32 100) /(1010.79) = 45.24 percentage. For WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD. percentage of raw material in terms of sales has been calculated as : (317.90 100) /(668.35) = 47.56 percentage. Similarly all the expenses have been expressed in the terms of sales for the last 5 years, for the three companies as shown in the annexure. After that I have calculated the average of the percentage for each and every particular. For example percentage of raw material in terms of sale of ANDHRA PRADESH for the year ending 2004 to 2008 is 46.57%, 45.69%, 44.02%, 53.23%, and 50.81% respectively for West Coast. So average percentage is sum of these percentage/5 = (46.57+45.69+44.02+53.23+ 50.81)/5 % = 48.07% And using these percentages in terms of sales I have calculated the forecasted expenses as shown in the annexure.
ASSUMPTIONS
Assumption while preparing forecasted profit and loss account I have kept the depreciation figure increasing proportionately assuming that the firm is charging the depreciation on the basis of straight line method basis and there is proportionate further capital investment in the coming five years. As AP Paper mill has recently invested Rs. 341.21cr in the year 2006-2007 in purchasing fixed assets so there is a need to invest more in near future. Similarly JK Paper Mills has also invested Rs.122.62 cr. in the year 2005-2006. But fixed assets of West Coast was more or less same for the last five years so I have assumed that company is going to make investment of Rs. 50 cr. in the year 2008-2009 from its internal sources i.e. without raising loan. Interest on debt is consider to be same for the coming years as there is no further issue of debenture nor any repayment. Assumed tax rate to be 35%
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For example terminal value of ANDHRA PRADESH in the year 2013 =Rs. = Rs. 2345.96 cr. Similarly for JK PAPER MILLS LTD. terminal value has been calculated as Rs. = Rs. 1853.78 cr. For WESTCOAST PAPER MILLS LTD. terminal value has been calculated as Rs. = Rs. 716.87 cr.
cr.
cr.
cr.
Similarly value of JK PAPER MILLS LTD. =Rs. + + + + + Cr. = Rs. 1361.11 cr.
Value of WESTCOAST PAPER MILLS LTD. =Rs. + + + + + Cr. = Rs. 591.95 cr.
VALUE OF EQUITY
When the value of a debt is deducted from the above calculated values of a firm we get the value of equity, because value of a firm is the sum of value of equity and value of a debt of a firm.
CONCLUSION
As per the calculations for the 3 companies shown above in the report I get the following result: Company Name Intrinsic Value (Rs.) Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills Ltd. JK Paper Mills Ltd. West Coast Paper Mills Ltd. Hence we conclude that the stocks of Andhra Paper Mills, JK Paper Mills and West Coast Paper Mills are undervalued and hence they can be considered for investment. Now let us assume that market value of stock of JK Paper Mills is Rs.100. This means that the stock is overvalued because the market value of the stock is more than it should be. At this assumption, there should be no further investment in this company. 81.87 212.43 35.95 67.80 UNDERVALUED UNDERVALUED 450.37 Market Price on 2nd April 2007 (Rs.) 72.80 UNDERVALUED Remarks
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the new entrant to break this tie up so they have to set up their own distribution channel which put huge pressure on them. CAPITAL INVESTMENT Higher the capital investment required to establish a firm, higher will be the entry barrier. Paper industry is one of the most capital-intensive industries in the world characterized by a lumpy investment profile. One paper making machine, for example, costs around half a billion dollars. Paper industry is a power water intensive industry which also acts as a barrier to entry. RESISTANCE FROM LOCAL PEOPLE Paper industry is highly polluting sector so the local people opposes the establishment of the factory near their resident. So the new entrants have look up the area far from city for setting their factory. Moreover they have to fulfill the requirement of pollution standard. So in the whole we can say that there is no threat from the new firm in the paper industry as barrier is high.
PRESENCE OF SUBSTITUTE INPUTS The presence of substitute inputs lowers the power of suppliers. In the paper industry unavailability of substitute inputs increases the power of supplier. IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME TO SUPPLIER If an industry, buy a significant percentage of the total production of the suppliers output then supplier wont have bargaining power as they have no other option. Similarly in the paper industry supplier material are not demanded in other industry as a major raw material. THREAT OF FORWARD INTEGRATION If there is any indication that vertical integration is occurring that is suppliers are coming forward to produce the product in which their product is used as a raw material, then this gives them power. But in the paper industry huge capital investment is required which saves the paper mill from its supplier forward integration. ACCESS TO LABOUR Labor required in the paper industry is basically unskilled which is available in plenty in India so they do not enjoy any power. So considering all the factors we can say that supplier of raw material have the bargaining power but not the labour.
expanding printing and packaging sectors are the intermediate end users of paper. All these factors put together make the number of buyers relatively larger and hence lowers the buyers bargaining power. BUYER SWITCHING COSTS Buyer switching cost refers to the cost incurred by the customer in replacing the product of one manufacturer with the product of other manufacturer. If the industry has been able to create switching costs, than that would give the industry power over the buyer and makes the industry attractive. In the paper industry, the buyers switching costs are very less as the product are more or less standardize so they enjoy high bargaining power. THREAT OF BACKWARD INTEGRATION Backward integration is the process by which firms acquire their suppliers, or beginning the process of providing for themselves the means to produce the input. This can occur for several reasons, among them: to guarantee a dependable source of the input or to capture the margins normally paid to the suppliers. If there is any indications that buyers are integrating backward then this would gives them power, making the industry unattractive. In the paper industry, there is almost no backward integration among the buyers except in a few cases as for example Rakish Paper Company is a distributor as well as supplier also. PRICE SENSITIVITY Price sensitivity refers to the change in the quantity demanded of a particular product due to change in its price. This deal with elasticity of demand and whether the industry is able to pass cost increases on to the buyer, or have to absorb them. If buyers are not price sensitive, this gives the industry power and makes it attractive. Although buyers are price sensitive but in paper industry since there is a demand supply gap buyers are not able to exercise much power and hence the demand is not really elastic. In fact, the prices are also rising for the past few years. As a result of all this, price sensitivity is also very low. PRICE TO TOTAL PURCHASES Main customer of paper industry spends very less amount of their total purchase in purchasing paper for example individual customer spends around only 0.1% of their expense in purchasing paper.
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Thus, looking at all these factors, we can say that buyers have very low bargaining power in the paper industry.
from this, the paper industry is witnessing a favorable trend in terms of improved realizations since April 2005. The industry has been successful in gradually increasing the prices over the corresponding previous year period. Paper prices have shown a significant rise in both domestic and international markets. EXIT BARRIERS Higher will be the exit barrier higher will be the rivalry among the existing firm. The exit barriers are preset in case of the paper industry because the machines used generally do not have any alternative uses so the stakes are high for scrapping these machinery totally. PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION Higher the product differentiation lowers the competition. Some high-grade cigarette paper is made from flax. Cotton and linen rags are used in fine-grade papers such as letterhead and resume paper, and for bank notes and security certificates. The rags are usually cuttings and waste from textile and garment mills. So there is ample opportunity for different players to enter into unique segment of products. INTERMITTENT OVERCAPACITY If the industry is running between 80% and 85% capacity utilization, then this is consider as a normal range. Lower utilization means that the industry is susceptible to intermittent overcapacity. This increases rivalry as firms attempt to maintain revenues. If the industry is over the normal range, this indicates that they may lack the capital investments necessary to meet unexpected demand. This reduces rivalry and makes the industry attractive. The industry is already operating overcapacity to overcome the gap in the demand and supply in the market. Recognizing this, several top players have initiated capacity expansion plan that is expected to be start commercial production by 2009.
CONCLUSION
So in the end we can conclude that there is no such competition among the existing firm. Since the price of paper is on the uptrend due to demand supply mismatch we can say that there is no price cut competition, moreover as the growth rate is high so there is no such pressure among the existing firm to capture the market share.
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The demand of paper is increasing over the period with a very high speed and will definitely facilitate the Indian economic and infrastructural growth. Calculations made in the study were very difficult. And is therefore not possible for a common citizen to make a analysis of such type. The government is also supporting the paper industry as it totally relicensed the paper companies. As far as project is concerned, it is a very big opportunity to get involved in any project and to utilize the chance of analysing some different practical situations under the supervision of seniors and professors.
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CONCLUSION
The conclusion of the study can be drawn as the industry is growing proper enough and due to this there is a good opportunity of investing in these companies because the future prospectus of the industry is looking bright. A lot of discussion has already been made regarding objective of the study, organizational overview, various calculations, implication of Porters 5 Force Model, limitations etc which are enough to draw the conclusion. Drawing upon previous experience and education and to apply various techniques of evaluating any firm was the main thing in the study which was completely explained. It is very important to say that the future of India is fully dependent on this types of industries and incremental graph of net worth is very necessary for the industries. As far as the project work is concerned it can be said that this project work played a very important role for practical knowledge of the corporate world. It can also be said that because of this project I got a good knowledge of using MS-OFFICE 2007 which is really very advanced.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
WEBSITES
www.fotosearch.com www.moneycontrol.com www.answers.com www.businessindia.com www.westcoastpaper.com/company.htm www.andhrapaper.com/html/corporate-profile.htm www.jkorg.in/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=145&Itemid=191&parent=174 www.business.gov.in www.encyclopedia.com www.wikipedia.com www.nseindia.com www.yahoo.finance.com www.google.com www.wiki.answers.com
www.agecon.uwyo.edu/RiskMgt/marketrisk/FundamentalAnalysis.pdf
www.paperex-india.com/paperscene.htm www.economywatch.com/business-and-economy/paper-industry.html www.blonnet.com/2008/05/18/stories/2008051850990200.htm www.bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/02/global-10-year.html www.nse-india.com/marketinfo/indices/histdata/historicalindices.jsp www.kotaksec.cmlinks.com/Equity/companyprofile.aspx?id=27&code=607 www.tradeholding.net/default.cgi/action/viewtradeleads/tradeleadid/44707/ subject/Inquiry_Demand_of_Paper_Board www.paperonline.org/history/history_frame.html www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/dcf4.asp www.pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/valquestions/termvalapproaches.htm Page 36
NEWSPAPERS
Economic Times www.economictimes.indiatimes.com Business Standard - www.business-standard.com The Telegraph - www.telegraphindia.com The Statesman - www.thestatesman.net The Times of India www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com Hindustan Times - www.hindustantimes.com Business Line - www.thehindubusinessline.com
MAGAZINES
Business World Business Today Competitive Success
BOOKS
CA Institute PCC Cost Accounting And Financial Management Study Material
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