Water in an Uncertain Climate Future

Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International

Denin Dialogue Series Delaware Environmental Institute November 30, 2010

2 to 3% Annual Average growth Gross World Product (GWP) in 21st Century (~10 to 20x todays GWP)
$500 trillion GWP ~$50,000 per cap # in poverty?

$1,000 trillion GWP ~$100,000 per cap # in poverty?

$50 trillion GWP ~$7,500 per cap 2+ billion in poverty

2005

2105

2105

More absolute poor than any time in human history [alongside more wealth than ever]

Mass poverty

Where we will be by 2100

900ppm

Climate wierding

Past planetary mass extinctions triggered by high CO2 >550ppm

Parts per Million CO2

55 million years since oceans as acidic business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web

Oceans Acidifying

40% decline in phytoplankton base of the marine food web -- past 50 years

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

Species extinction by humans 1000x natural background rate

Species extinction

Ecological Footprint

Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes

Fish species 8 times more threatened than mammals or birds in the USA
Map source: Jelks, H. J., S. J. Walsh, N. M. Burkhead, S. Contreras-Balderas, E. DazPardo, D. A. Hendrickson, J. Lyons, N. E. Mandrak, F. McCormick, J. S. Nelson, S. P. Platania, B. A. Porter, C. B. Renaud, J. J. Schmitter-Soto, E. B. Taylor, and M. L. Warren, Jr. 2008. Conservation status of imperiled North American freshwater and diadromous fishes. Fisheries 33(8): 37240

37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened

%
Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened, and IUCN 2000 for map

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Incident Human Water Security Threat

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010

Incident Biodiversity Threat

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010

Threat to Human Water Security & Biodiversity

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010

Intensive farming and grazing practices and deforestation in China have led to more frequent dust storms, like this one in 2001 that swept aerosol particles into the Great Lakes region of the US, and even left a sprinkling in the Alps mountains in Europe.

Increased dust in the Sahel, which can spread far out to sea (inset), has been linked to agriculture. Credit: J. Leyrer/NIOZ (photo); NASA (inset)

Direction of change in water run-off by 2060 2 C increase

4 C increase
drier areas dry further & wetter areas become wetter

Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 99-116

Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060

Nile Ganges Murray Darling

+2 C

+4 C
Danube Mississippi Amazon

+2 C
increasing to +4 C by 2100

Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 99-116

Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4C

William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.

Interactions may result in societal impacts that are greater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts

Resource Wars & Conflicts

Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm

Based on 6 Celsius average global temperature rise due to greater climate sensitivity Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015 and become negative CO2 by 2050 to achieve <350 ppm

Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion

Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/

Where the world needs to go:

energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

>$/GDP/cap

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman

A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Averting catastrophes by Greening the Global Economy

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

USA Water Chart 2004

45% US water use

75% US water consumption

A new water disinfector for the developing worlds poor

DESIGN CRITERIA Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3) Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water Reliable, Mature components Can treat unpressurized water Rapid throughput: 12 seconds Low maintenance: 4x per year No overdose risk Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Globalwater%202008.pdf

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl device

WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

WaterHealth International

Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.

Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

More productive, Less cost, Less damage

Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water. Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices, often unconnected to the amount of water used. Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems, but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers. Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the worlds irrigated area.
Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/

Soft Water Path

Immense Water Waste

The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually
WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003

Hoekstra, A.Y. (2008) Measuring your water footprint: Whats next in water strategy, Leading Perspectives, Summer 2008, pp. 12-13, 19, http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/CorporateWaterFootprints.

Energy/Water Integration Benefits during Drought Periods

Source: Andrew Belden, Priscilla Cole, Holly Conte et al. 2008. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Univ. of Delaware.

1200 1000

100,000+

Water consumption per kWh

(relative to wind power=1)
1022

800
600 400 200 0

784 552 541

38

Green Power or Megadamus negavitae?

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuru dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience 50: 76675,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Reservoir Area (km2) Generating Capacity (MW)

DAM

km2/
MW

Emissions: Hydro (MtCO2eq/yr)

Emissions: CC Gas (MtCO2eq/yr)

Emissions Ratio Hydro/Gas

Tucuru CuruUna

24330

4240

8.60

2.22

72

40

0.15

0.02

7.5

Balbina

3150

250

13

6.91

0.12

58

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

What about Biofuels?

The water requirements of energy derived from biomass are about 70 to 400 times more than that of other energy carriers such as fossil fuels, wind, and solar. More than 90% of the water needed is used in the production of the feedstock.
Source: Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., A. Hoekstra, Th. van der Meer. 2008. Water footprint of bio-energy and other primary energy carriers. Value of Water Research Report Series No. 29. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands..

Projections of crop water use and irrigation withdrawals for bio-energy

Source: De Fraiture, C. & Berndes, G. 2009. Biofuels and water. Pages 139-153 in R.W. Howarth and S. Bringezu (Eds.) Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Proceedings of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment, 22-25 September 2008, Gummersbach, Germany. Ithaca NY: Cornell University. http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/) .

Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs?

By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land required for agriculture. 800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS. Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats under constant threat.

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?

Solar-w/storage
Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-w/storage turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility afflicting every energy and power source used in driving economic activity

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients 1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream

SUN FUSION PHOTONS

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields

90% of Americas current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the brown-fields the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nations cities.

Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Replaced Economic Measure Beijing Shanghai

Polished Stone

NPV ($) BCR

+$18,586 2.33

+$14,237 2.14

PBP (yrs)
NPV ($) BCR

1
+$15,373 1.89

1
+$11,024 1.70

Aluminum
SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland

PBP (yrs)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Municipal Solar Financing Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

21GW

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008 MW

40% annual growth rate Doubling <22 months 40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current total world energy use Compared to: Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009] Nuclear power 350,000 MW Hydro power 770,000 MW Natural Gas power 1 million MW Coal power 2 million MW

2009

What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?

16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000

Solar PV Growth @ 25% year Solar PV Growth@ 25% perper year

Megawatts

10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0

2000 1 2009 4 2021 7 2033 10 2045 13 2057 16 2069 2089 19 2069

59 TW by 2075
Year

Equal to total world consumption in 2009

16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000

Solar PV Growth@ 15% per per year Solar PV Growth @ 15% year

10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0

59 TW by 2119
2009 4 2029 7 2049 10
Year

Megawatts

2000 1

2069 13

2089 16

2109 19 2109

Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plugin Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University, zweibel@gwu.edu , http://Solar.gwu.edu/

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Solar power beats thermal plants within their construction lead timeat zero carbon price

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

Federal Research & Development Funds

90 80 70 60

Billion $ 2008 constant $85

2

Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 2009)

vs.

50 40

Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009)

30 20 10 0

$4.2
1

PV

NUCLEAR

GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

Solar smart poly-grids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
USA minus CA & NY 165 GW Coal Power Plants

Per Capital Electricity Consumption

New York

[EPPs]

California Californians have net savings of $1,000 per family

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy Commission, (916) 654-4930, ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type: 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture) 6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low carbon energy supply

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 20102020 for developing countries and $4860 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Universal symbol for Efficiency

eta

The best thing about lowhanging fruit is that it keeps growing back.

SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Now use 1/2 global power 50% efficiency savings achievable 90% cost savings

Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)

CCS

US current average

nuclear

coal

CC gas wind farm

CC ind cogen

end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity 2

50

33

25

nuclear

coal

CC gas

wind farm

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

CC ind cogen

end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services

47

1: 93 kg CO2/$ 32

23

nuclear

coal

CC gas

wind farm

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

CC ind cogen

end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen

THANK YOU!

Michael Totten Conservation International mtotten@conservation.org

Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Mississippi River Delta

Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Yangtze River Pearl River

Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as Feedstock Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923

Nutrient Rich Water

(Sewage, polluted river water)

Clean water

+ atmospheric CO2

ATS ALGAL BIOMASS

Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH

(or power plant stack gases)

Less CO2 in atmosphere

CO2

Biobutanol
Ethanol Acetone Lactic Acid Acetic Acid

Fermenter
(Clostridium butylicum C. Pasteurianum, etc.) C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 +

Solvent Extraction

Oil
Transesterification

Organic Fertilizer
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923

Biodiesel

Biofuel Production from Algal Turf Scrubber Biomass

(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
Estimated Biofuel Production (gallons per acre or ha per year)

Algae
butanol biodiesel Corn (ethanol) 1520
[3,770 gal/ha/yr]

2000
[5,000 gal/ha/yr]

500
[1,250 gal/ha/yr]

----

Soy (biodiesel)

----

100
[250 gal/ha/yr]

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923

95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit

Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 3MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area

37,500 mi2
Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40% USA total GHG emissions

Wind Farm Royalties Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of worlds largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Wind Royalties Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue
non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

Govt. subsidy
Wind profits

windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm govt. subsidy windpower royalty farm commodity revenues $0 $200 $50

non-wind farm $60 $0 $64

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century?