Evaluation of the effects of Climate Change on Livestock Production and farmers coping strategies: a case study of Shire Valley

in Malawi.
By Charles Langton Vanya Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre, Malawi Email:dolesi_beni@yahoo.com; dolesibeni@gmail.com

1.1 INTRODUCTION Malawis economy largely depends on rain-fed agriculture. This dependence on rain-fed agriculture places the country in a very vulnerable position in an event of climate variability. The 85% of the population, who largely contribute to the countrys economy, live in rural areas. The rural agricultural production output contributes to about 80% of the countrys produce and is primarily designed to meet the subsistence needs; although the situation is gradually changing. During the last three decades, Malawi experienced significant climate variability and unpredictability in seasonal rainfall. Cases in point are the four droughts that occurred since the late 1970s: in 1978/79, 1981/82, 1991/1992 and 2004/2005. The agriculture, water, forestry, fisheries and wildlife sectors were greatly affected by these drought events (Mkanda, et. al., 1995). These shifts of weather pattern also cause year to year variation in the rainfall onset and season lengths resulting into yearly shifts in planting dates, yields, drought occurrences and flooding periods and the occurrence of dry spells. Shire valley located in the southern tip of the country is dominantly a crop-livestock system region which is under stress because of the shrinking cultivation area per house hold, land degradation and reduced feed due to increased climate extremes. Generally the area is semi-arid although there is booming of winter agricultural activities due to passage of Shire River. The region is also renowned for its very high temperatures, floods and frequent droughts forcing farmers to try various coping mechanisms in order to survive. Although maize is the staple food crop for the majority of the population, drought tolerant crops such as sorghum and millet respond well in the areas. FAO (2009), observed that Malawi had improved food security with the exception of the Lower Shire Valley in the far south. FEWSNET describes Malawi as a generally food secure country in the short term, while WFP and IFPRI agree that the scale of hunger in the long term is moderately high and serious. With exacerbated climate variability, dependence on crop alone has proved to be suicidal in the region as droughts leave communities with nothing to depend on during most of the years. These events have serious effects on livestock production as they interfere with the availability and quality of pasture and water. When the variation in weather is extreme, a serious increase in animal disease and insecurity develops in the region because of community sole dependence on rain fed agriculture for its income. This has led to increase in the number of people keeping livestock in the area regardless of how it is affected by variation in climate.
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1.2 MOTIVATION The proposed project addresses one of the core challenges as identified by the Governments Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) 20062011. The MGDS is aimed at achieving and sustaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and making Malawi a hunger free nation through fostering sustainable economic growth and the creation of wealth with fair and equitable distribution. The MGDS recognizes that agricultural development will drive medium term growth by expanding and diversifying production. The agriculture sector is expected to contribute to sustainable economic growth that is considered central to Malawis ability to reduce poverty, achieve the MDGs and gain self-sufficiency. The paper is well anchored in the Governments New Agriculture Policy, National Irrigation Development Policy and the Decentralisation Policy which omitted risks due to climate. Thus the paper will contribute to the achievement of the goals of the MGDS and the Agricultural Sector Strategy by specifically addressing the need to enhance climate risk management capacities by understating how they impact on agriculture activities. 1.3 PROBLEMS STATEMENT Shire valley is one of the areas where climate is very unpredictable among all the districts in Malawi. The area is frequently affected by floods and erratic rains regardless of expected good rains. While climate change is a global phenomenon, its negative impacts are more severely felt by poor people in developing countries who rely heavily on the natural resource base for their livelihoods. In the recent time, the Shire Valley has been experiencing extreme weather events such as floods and droughts which caused severe economic hardships for the community. These were exacerbated by variation climate which aggravate food security risks. The area lies in the Great Rift Valley of Africa at an altitude of 31-132 (a.m.s.l) making it prone to frequent drought, floods and high temperatures. Crop and livestock production are amongst the most climatesensitive economic sectors where the rural poor communities in the area are engaged in and their activities are more exposed to the effects of climate change. According to SVADD annual report (2008), animal production contributes 65% of the farmers livelihood and 20% of the countrys GDP. With 80% of countrys population living in rural areas, their engagement in subsistence farming and dependence for their livelihoods is exclusively on agriculture. Therefore, livestock production is becoming one of the major agricultural activities in the area as erratic rainfall pattern doesnt allow for a variety of crops to be grown. Food sufficiency and security in the areas is only achieved by production of millet and sorghum due to their high drought tolerant characteristics and in case of a crop failure, livestock is used to cover the shortage. According to FAO (2009), the price of livestock is likely to start decreasing in hunger prone areas thus affecting poor households owning small livestock. This implies that the peoples livelihood is more likely to be affected when there are poor crop and livestock productions. Since livestock management is becoming a very sensitive agricultural practice, it is therefore important to understand how it is affected by climate extremes such as droughts, flooding and others. Any deviation in the climate variables affects the livestock yields thus leading to an increase in vulnerability of rural households to economic insecurity. Climate variables determine the efficiency of livestock production by direct and indirect influence on animal health, reproductive efficiency, productive conversion of feed and ultimately the very survival of the animal,
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particularly at critical stages of the life cycle. Therefore understanding the relationship between livestock and climate variables such as temperatures and rainfall would be very important on averting some of these problems. Much has not been done on these thereby making farmers to continue raising their livestock based on traditional knowledge. This paper will try to look at the relationship between climate parameters variation and animal production and then find out if there is a statistical linkage between these variables. 2.3 THE HYPOTHESIS The research hypothesis is as follows: I. In periods of natural disasters such as drought and floods small scale farmers cannot manage or cope with such events without external influence in terms of assistance from Agriculture Extension Officers (AEO), from governmental and non-governmental agencies. II. Due to climate factors such as temperature, rainfall, humidity and others, livestock populations tend to fluctuate with event in times of disasters such as droughts and floods without external help even with or without farmers prior preparation to such disaster. 1.4 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES The aim of this research paper is to determine the effect of climate change on livestock production and the coping mechanisms adopted by farmers. These aims were addressed through investigating the following Specific objectives which were to: Evaluate the effect of key climatic variables on livestock production in the shire valley Malawi Identify farmers coping strategies in dealing with effect of climatic variables on livestock production in the Shire Valley. To identify the effects of Climate variability elements and coping mechanisms adopted by farmers on their families during the process. Assess the magnitude of financial losses in livestock production with respect to climate variability.(e.g. in 1998). Considering the research objectives above, the following research questions were formulated: What are the trends of the observed temperature and rainfall in the Shire Valley? What are the possible effects of these climate trends on animal production in the region? What is the expected effect of climate change on livestock production in the area? How best could farmers cope with the climatic effects in the region? 1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY AREA Lower Shire Valley Shire Valley is situated in the southern part of Malawi (Fig) and lie between 34.27- 35.32E and -15.84 to -17.14S. It is an area that span across two districts (Nsanje and Chikwawa) with a unique feature of being in the Rift Valley, which stretches from North Africa into Zambezi
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River. With poorly distributed rainfall ranging between 400-600mm annually and average temperatures of 35C, soil fertility is very rich in the area which makes pasture to grow faster and dry earlier. These climatic factors also make the area unsuitable for crop farming in spite of its high potential in agricultural production due to its fertility (Jaetzold and Schmidt 1982). Small-scale farmers are engaged in both crops and livestock production and rely mainly on maize, millet and sorghum for foods. Maize requires enough water for high crop yields thus majority grow sorghum and millets which withstand minimal rainfall amounts and high temperatures. The main food crops grown in the area are Maize, Rice, Sorghum, and Millet. Income is generated through growing Cotton and keeping livestock such as Goats, sheep, pigs, donkeys, cattle, chicken, turkey, and ducks. This hot dry lowland zone is nonetheless relatively productive by the standards of southern Malawi. Variety of crops grown during both the main season and winter seasons, with winter crops cultivated in wetlands along the Shire River banks. Cattle holdings are significant in the zone, although concentrated in the hands of the better-off. In overall, roughly one third of the zones income comes from sale of food crops, one third from the sale of cotton and one third from the sale of livestock (mainly cattle and goats). The zone benefits from good access to neighbouring Mozambique, a source of both ganyu (peace-works) and relatively cheap maize in both good and bad years.

Fig.1. Map of Malawi Showing the Lower Shire Valley

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2.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY The area was selected for study since it suffers from frequent food and livestock feed insecurity and has large closed area due to soil degradation. In addition study conducted in 2002 indicated that the area is under inadequate livestock feed supply, quality and quantity of livestock feed, is the major constraint in livestock production in the area. Feed scarcity is indicated as a factor responsible for low livestock reproductive and growth performance especially during dry season. 3.0 LITERATURE REVIEW Malawis exposure to climate change and extreme weather events has been identified through various studies including the State of the Environment Report for Malawi 1998, the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC (2002) and Malawi National Strategy for Sustainable Development (2004). The 2002 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Report indicated that Malawi is experiencing a range of climatic hazards, which include extreme rainfall, floods, seasonal and multi-year droughts, dry and cold spells, strong winds, thunderstorms, landslides, hailstorms, earthquake and mudslides, heat waves, and many others. Over the last decade, Shire Valley, through which the Shire river carrying water from Lake Malawi to the Indian Ocean flows, has experienced some of the worst droughts (1991/92) and floods (2000/01) in living memory. These resulted in low agricultural production, consequently hunger, malnutrition and loss of human and animal life and other socio-economic and industrial activities. Most recently, the country suffered from severe droughts and other climate related variability that affected the livelihood of the people. Although efforts are being taken to assist farmers in improving their livelihood, most decisions to date are based on the seasonal forecast issued by the Department of Meteorological Services at the beginning every season. Basing on this alone little could be done as the forecast is crude since it is developed for SADC region and down scaled to national level. Despite farmers clear problems in understanding how livestock management is related to climate variability information, little has been done to assist farmers understand the impact of climate variability on their farming activities. As a result of unreliability of rainfall, increase in temperature and other variables, there has been loss in income and an increase in the general vulnerability to food security (GOM/WEP, 1996). Animal production is vulnerable to present day climatic hazards and to within and between season climate variability (Aune et al., 2001). Nowhere is this more realistic than for those farmers in the Shire Valley who rely largely and totally on rain-fed agriculture or livestock productions for their livelihood. These communities are already struggling to cope effectively with the impacts of current variability. It is therefore very clear that rural farmers are the primary investor and risk-takers in rain fed agriculture production suggesting that farmers are more likely to trust and act on information and advice when it comes to sources they already know and trust (Hansen, 2002)

Weather elements that animals experience on a daily basis are essential for their health, welfare and pasture production. Weather by its definition is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere over an area notable by temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other elements. On the other hand, long term averaged weather conditions generate the climate. Its variability over a certain period of time and in a specified area varies from one place to another depending upon latitude, altitude and other geographical factors. So the change in climate is believed to be the major influence of global change through emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols by human activities (IPCC, 2001). Its impact is expected to continue altering the atmosphere such that it will have a negative effect on the climate and human livelihood. It will significantly damages the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa given the semi-arid nature of a large portion of the continent and the fact that the region already endures high temperatures and low precipitation, frequent droughts and water scarcity. The risk of drought in Malawi as in much of the rain fed Sub Saharan Africa countries will constitute a considerable challenge for developing sustainable livelihood enhancement strategies (FAO, 2005). Any drop in subsistence crop yields result in the scarcity of its supply thereby pushing the market prices upwards and in return, this has negative impact on stocks of animals a farmer has on average. As majority of the Shire Valley community live below poverty line (less than a dollar per day) persistence of climate variability, live them with no choice but to engage themselves in livestock production with a price focus only. According to J. Kabubo-Mariara, (2008), livestock production is a choice of households resource allocation and a livelihood diversification strategy. It is a view supported by Seo and Mendelsohn (2006) who indicted that livestock management started by an assumption that a farmer chooses the outputs and inputs that maximize net revenue with a focus on the price, climate and other external factors that will be faced. So farmers are first to determine whether or not it is profitable to engage in livestock production and then choose the species of livestock to adopt depending on the feeding mechanisms. However, these views contradict Munthali and Dzowela (1989) who indicated that livestock production in Malawi was regarded as a symbol of status. History had revealed that since independence livestock production has never been considered as equally important as crop production. This has been and is still evident by agricultural policies biased to crop production particularly maize production. Thus as a nation there is an urgent need to initiate and develop policies (institutional and macroeconomic) that are favorable for increasing livestock and livestock-products production. No price attachment is linked to livestock rearing, particularly cattle. 4.0 METHODOLOGY Data Source: Livestock population data and Coping mechanism techniques information was obtained from Malawi, Shire Valley Agricultural Development Division (SVADD) a unit of the Ministry of Agriculture, Climate data used in this paper will be for the period between1960-2008. This data was collected from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS). It was represented by these stations; Makhanga, Ngabu, Nchalo Sugar Estate and Nsanje while Temperatures (1960-2006) was from two stations only; Makhanga and Ngabu. The data was manually observed and recorded using conventional instruments.
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Station Latitude (N) Longitude(E) Altitude(m) Nsanje 35.27 -16.95 60 Makhanga 35.15 -16.52 52 Chikwawa 34.78 -16.03 107 Nchalo 34.933 -16.23 64 Ngabu 34.95 -16.5 102 Table.1 Longitudes and Latitudes of Stations used in this Study Coping mechanism data was obtained from a survey conducted by SVADD in 2008 October.
Season Crop residues 29 85 77 Sending out animals 73 63 97 Sending out and crop residue 59 17 71 Standing hay Crop residues and standing hay 41 23 45 pastoral

Drought Floods Normal season

12 31 47

8 17 2 (n=96)

Table. 2 Feed Coping Mechanism adopted by Farmers in the Shire Valley during various Seasons

Season Drought Floods Normal Season

Sending animals to river 40 73 96

Digging Wells 67 2 28

Using boreholes 92 25 47 (N=96)

Table. 3 Water Coping Mechanism adopted by Farmers in the Shire Valley during various Seasons

4.2 Analysis of rainfall and temperature data From the two tables (table.xxi and xxii) it is seen that winters have become drier than they used to be in the past years hence promoting fast drying of pasture. Numbers of dry days are increasing comparably to how it was in the 1960. For example, November 2008 was drier [see table(xxi and xxii)] where in 1961 we had rains on 23rd,27th and 29th Nov while in 2008 we only had rains on 5th Nov as compared to 1960s whereby in the second dekad rains had already started hence providing early feeds for livestock.
Dry spell length for Ngabu 1961

Spell Lengths
Mon 1 Jan m Feb 6 Mar 2 Apr 11 May 4 Jun Day. 4 Jul 9 Aug 5 Sep 36 Oct 19 Nov 50 Dec 2

2 m 7 3 12 5 3 m 8 4 13 6 4 m 9 5 14 7 5 -10 6 15 8 6 -11 -16 9 7 1 --17 10 8 2 --18 11 9 3 1 1 19 12 10 4 2 -20 -.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 24 18 1 3 9 13 25 -2 4 10 -26 -3 5 -1 27 1 4 6 -2 28 2 -7 1 -29 3 1 8 2 1 30 4 9 3 2 31 5 10 3 Maximum 18 11 10 21 13 11

5 -1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. .. .. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 17

10 -1 -1 2 3 4 5 .. .. .. 1 2 --1 2 3 4 35

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 .. .. .. 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 46

37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 .. .. .. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

20 51 3 21 52 4 22 53 5 23 54 6 24 55 7 25 56 -26 57 1 27 58 2 28 59 3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 42 1 12 43 2 -44 3 -45 --46 1 1 47 --48 1 -49 -(Overall: 70) 49 70 12

Table (1.a) Ngabu 2008 Mon Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec --------------------------------------------------------------------------Day. --------------------------------------------------------------------1 ---15 45 76 106 18 49 79 110 -2 1 1 1 16 46 77 107 19 50 80 111 1 3 2 2 2 17 47 78 108 20 51 81 112 2 4 3 3 -18 48 79 109 21 52 82 113 3 5 4 4 1 19 49 80 110 22 53 83 -4 6 -5 2 20 50 81 111 23 54 84 1 5 7 1 6 3 21 51 82 112 24 55 85 2 -8 --4 22 52 83 113 25 56 86 3 1 9 ---23 53 84 114 26 57 87 4 2 10 -1 -24 54 85 115 27 58 88 5 -.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 24 -4 7 38 68 99 10 41 72 102 19 1 25 1 5 8 39 69 100 11 42 73 103 20 2 26 -6 9 40 70 101 12 43 74 104 21 -27 -7 10 41 71 102 13 44 75 105 22 -28 -8 11 42 72 103 14 45 76 106 23 1 29 -9 12 43 73 104 15 46 77 107 24 2 30 -13 44 74 105 16 47 78 108 25 3 31 1 14 75 17 48 109 -Maximum (Overall: 116) 4 9 14 44 75 105 116 48 78 109 113 5 Table (1.b)

From table.1 (a and b) above, it is evident that the number of dry days are increasing such that it is becoming drier as it used to be. Table.1a where data for 1961 was analyzed, the maximum numbers of days without rain were over two months (70days) and by 2008 the number of days increased to 3 months (116days) as shown in table. 1b. From monthly values, it is also evident that rainfall used to start by early late October to early November in 1961 (table1) but 2008 is showing end of November as the start of the rains. This implies that rainy days have decreased hence giving pressure to natural pasture to grow within a limited number of days. Gamma Probability Distribution was employed to check the consistency of the data used in this research. The rainfall and temperature data where daily values were transformed to monthly for long term mean differences and then to annual totals for correlation and regressing with the livestock numbers in the areas.

5.0 CLIMATIC INFORMATION 5.1.1 CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF CLIMATIC INFORMATION DEFINATIONS Significant rainfall =Rainfall in excess of a given criterion Rain season =Period between October and April Growing season =Period between germination and physiological maturity Dry spell=A period of between 10 and 20 days without significant rain Pentad =A period of 5 days Dry pentad =A pentad without significant rain Wet pentad =A pentad with significant rain (equal or more than 0.30mm) Dry day =A day with less than 0.30mm rainfall Dekad =Period of 10 days 5.1.2 CHALLENGES OR CONCERNS Start of the season End of the season Length of the season Risk of dry spells The extreme daily rainfall

5.1.3 Start of season The probability of climatic event of known importance to agriculture such as the start of the growing season, the frequency of dry spell within the season, the frequency of high intensity erosive rainfall events, impact of prolonged wet and dry spell on animal diseases, pasture growth and forage or the length of the growing season itself. For general usage, first occasion with 24 mm of rainfall (single day rainfall or two consecutive days rainfall) total appears to be a suitable criterion for significant rainfall (SR) on light soils. This is enough to germinate the seed. At this stage, plants are quite robust and can take moderate water stress without affecting the subsequent yield. For heavier soils first occasion with more than 24mm is applicable. A period of 14 days is generally accepted in Malawi farming circles as being the maximum one can go without replanting. There should be no dry spell of 15 consecutive days or more in the next 30 days after the first occasion of SR. Dry is defined as less than 0.30mm. If there are more than four pentads after the previous significant rainfall (SR), the season is considered to have a false start. The growing season is then started at the next SR with the same conditions.

5.1.4 End of season The end of the rain season is not easily defined. Obviously it can be taken as the time when plants stop growing (This is defined as water balance level of zero (0mm) from the month of April).
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This can be because they have reached physiological maturity, or because they are suffering a terminal water stress (TWS). A prolonged dry spell can end the growing season, whether it starts in the middle of the rain season or not. This frequently happens in the drier areas, when the growing season effectively ends when the residual soil moisture after the last SR (significant water balance) has been extracted from the root zone. This usually occurs four weeks after the last significant rainfall has been received. At 50% Probability the season ends on the 92nd day counting from 1st Jan (somewhere around 1st April before considering Std. deviation)

Fig. 2 (A and B) Note: Day 300 is 26 October, 286 is 12 October, and 364 =29 December

5.1.5 Effective seasonal length The end point of the rainy season will determine the effective length of the season from the final successful planting occasion. Based on Ngabu and Makhanga data at 50% (1 year out of 2 years) Probability the effective season length is about 108 days before considering Std. deviation. 5.1.6 Risk of dry spells Analysis done for Nov-January shows that at 50% Probability before considering Std. deviation these months can experience dry spells of not less than 15 consecutive days. At 80% the number of days is not less than 9. 5.1.7 Extreme daily rain fall At 50% before considering Std. deviation the extreme rainfall is about 65mm and this is captured on a day that is located within half way or towards the beginning of the season. So far there has hardly been any first planting occasion and if the first planting occasion occurs by the end of this month then the 50% probability is confirmed. The length of the effective rain season is likely to be less than 108 days. This therefore calls for drought tolerant early and medium maturing crops/varieties.
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6.0 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION 6.1.0 Gamma Probability: Gamma Probability distribution was employed to check the consistency of data. Each data point is represented by one point in the QQ-plot. The ordinate of each of these points is one data value; if this data value happens to be the kth order statistic in the sample (that is, the kth largest value), then the corresponding abscissa is the "typical" value that the kth largest value should have in a sample of the same size as the data, drawn from a particular distribution. If F denotes the cumulative probability distribution function of interest, and the sample comprises n values, then

F -1 [(k - 1/2) / (n + 1/2)] .2 And is a reasonable choice for that "typical" value, because it is an approximation to the median of the kth order statistic in a sample of size n from this distribution.

Fig.3 (i, ii & iii) Gamma probability distribution for Shire Valley Rainfall (SVRF), Livestock Totals (Lvstcktotals) and Shire Valley mean Temperatures.

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The results show that data spread (with 95% confidence) was consistent especially when we apply the QQ-plot where the dotted line lied with the band of spread. This indicates that data used in this paper particularly rainfall data which was almost linear is reliable.

6.1.1 TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL EFFECTS AND RESPONSE ON CROPS AND LIVESTOCK HERD

The temperatures in the Lower Shire Valley can go as high as 45C during the day and the associated heat stimulates physiological, metabolic or behavioral adjustments in body functions of an animal. The resulting stress leads to the animal activating a heat dissipating mechanism and expend energy for this. Various animals have different thermo-neutral zone which is relatively a narrow environmental temperature range in which heat production offsets heat loss completely, without activation of any conservation or removal mechanisms. The approximate thermal-comfort zones (C) for various livestock species are: mature cattle - 20 to 25; sheep, fleeced - 5 to 24; sheep, shorn 7 to 29; adult pigs 10 to 24; piglets, newborn 35 to 39. In most animals mating is programmed to occur at a particular time of the year so that if successful, resulting offspring will be born during the season when conditions for survival are optimal. This temperature has a significant effect in breeding pattern of the animals particularly when natural grazing is improving. This therefore shows that a variation in temperature in the Lowers Shire valley has a negative effect in the production of livestock (Fig.7). From the analysis (Fig.4), long term mean of rainfall has shifted where the change in pattern is observed during the wet season. The Probability start at 20,50 and 80% (1 out of 5 years, 1 year out of 2 years, 4 out of 5 years) for Shire Valley that equally represents Ngabu, Makhanga, Nsanje are at the 275th, 306th and 336th day with a Std. deviation of about 16 days. Single and double Std. deviations need to be computed to give meaningful range of start of planting period range. The single modal season in Malawi starts on 1st Jan. For example, the 318th day is 13th November while 336th day is 1st December and 351th day is 15th December. This shift in the rainfall pattern as shown in fig 2 and fig 3 has a negative impact on the availability of pasture in the region. Rainfall trend has shifted leaning towards more rainfall amounts with years while the numbers of rainy days has decreased (fig.4). Coping with stress in animals may occasionally demand substantial alterations to body function or characteristics. When temperature increases livestock gets affected such that other animals reduce their body sizes in order to reduce water demands. This does not only affect the livestock activities, it also affects the farmers livelihood, including their household as animal products are reduced. As a result of such effects, farmers are left with no choice other than to respond to disturbances which change the status quo at the household economic level. This section deals with effect of temperature on the livestock and farmers (household) as well as effect of coping mechanisms adopted by these farmers on their household. With increased cases of heat waves, flooding and droughts, pastoral feeding is one of the measures usually taken by the affected rural farmers. In agreement with hypothesized mechanism, Table.9 shows only 64 percent of the farmers leave their household village every morning in search of feeds because of drought, while 36 percent just lease their livestock without putting someone in-charge of the animals. Few remaining farmers indicated that they could not cope with the hardship of drought effects and theft resulted due to animals being alone which led to loss of their livelihood.

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Fig.4 A and B showing the departure of two long-term mean

Fig.5 Return periods of rainfall greater than 20, 50 and 100mm threshold over Makhanga

According to IPCC report (2007), inevitable changes to climatic patterns are highly likely to exacerbate existing rainfall intensity in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and further increase the frequency of climatic extremes. Indeed, evidence of such increase is already emerging in Shire valley. Fig.3 shows a an increased chance of light rains with about 40% chance of occurrence than 50 and 100mm which was about 40%. In the 1940s there was increased chance of getting heavier rains than between 1950 and 1980s. Currently there has been likelihood of rainfall increase as shown in Fig.3 There has been less that 10% of the rainfall range occurring currently than it used to be in the 1950 where rainfall amount of >100mm/day were being experienced clearly shown how climate change is impacting the Shire Valley.

6.1.2 Correlation Results

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Number of livestock owned in the region are significantly correlated (P<0.05, r=0.35) while for individual species within the area, the significance (p<0.05, r=0.26 for cattle, 0.34 for goats and 0.31 for pigs) with rainfall and temperatures (table.3) except for sheep which has no relationship with changes in temperatures and rainfall as other livestock have shown. This implies that in a good season, livestock boom while when the area is faced with drought and flooding, there is a decrease in animal population either due lack of feeds. According to Chung Lai, (2007), climate variability in Africa leads farmers to small stock rearing, and is often considered to be exclusive holdings for resource-poor populations such as the landless. The importance of having small stock is that, it is cheaper and requires less feed and grazing area than cattle, so they are a favorite among food insecure populations. Goats are especially advantageous because they produce milk and reproduce twice per year (Fig.7 and 8). They are also easy to prepare for sale. As households increase their assets by increasing the size of their shoat (both sheep and goats) herd, small ruminants are tradable for larger stock of greater value.
6.1.3 FARMERS STRATEGIES IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES AND CHANGES DURING DROUGHT

If there are no measures taken to conserve pollinators in the area, there is a high likelihood of reduced production from pollinator-dependent crops. However, measures needed to support improvement of population sizes of the pollinators would demand changes in the farmland landscape. Any intervention for pollinator conservation would require participation of all stakeholders likely to benefit from the bee pollination. This can only happen if they are aware of the economic benefit of the pollination service, which we try to measure in this study.
6.1.4 ANOVA for Livestock population as affected by annual Temperatures and Rainfall

Statistical relationship was established by generating a regression multiple models. In this method a change in the independent variable affect the dependent variable of the animal population and it can be monetized to measure the marginal value of the livestock production service (Perman et al. 2003). The value is therefore derived from observation of rainfall and mean temperatures of the area where livestock is managed, or that of the input substitutes of the good. The equation of regression equation is given by the following: .(3) Where 0, 1, 2 and 3 are coefficients and x 1, x 2 and x 3 is independent variable while Y is livestock production. The results from multiple regressions have shown a good relationship between animal population (number of livestock) and climate variables (temperature and rainfall) such that a positive correlation was obtained. At a significant level of (p<0.005), the results obtained a multiple R=0.97 (see.table2).

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Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error1 Observations

0.974267 0.949195 0.945131 5068.85 28

Table.2
ANOVA df Regression Residual Total 2 25 27 SS 1.06E+11 5.68E+09 1.12E+11 Standard Error 16775.13 7.185915 13.35009 t Stat 3.197066 -0.11593 21.20452 P-value 0.003743 0.028631 1.7E-08 MS 5.3E+10 2.27E+08 F 233.541 Significance F 0.453

Coefficients Intercept SVRF SVT 53631.18 -0.83309 283.0822

Table.3 6.1.5 MULTI-LINEAR REGRESSION FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. A model obtained through regression was used to forecast the animal population (trained period=8years) and the results obtained shows that given temperature and rainfall of the region, it is possible to estimate number of livestock in a year. However, the weakness with this model is that it does not take other factors such as disease, theft and economic factors. For instance, in a good season, an outbreak of a disease can reduce the population of livestock and hence affect the model output. Nevertheless, the results still provides a better understanding of the impact of weather on livestock production (Fig.6). Relating the results to the time series of both temperature and rainfall (Fig.2b and 4 ), it can be shown that whenever there was water stress leading to crop and pasture failure, drought and floods, there was also effects on the population of animals in the region.

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Fig.6 A Relatioship between Observed and Forecasted Livestock numbers The arrows in fig.6 show areas where the model picks the observed. The trained period started from 1995 to 2003. This implies that the equation below can be used to estimate number of livestock in the area under study. However, when an individual area was used the results were so poor with no correlation or poor correlation (r=0.023). The statistical equation below was used to forecast livestock numbers (fig.6):

Y(svrf, svtemp)= 53631.18-0.83309*SVRF+283.0822*SVT,.3 Where SVR and SVRF are mean temperature and rainfall totals for Shire Valley respectively and Y is livestock population. The null hypothesis in this study was that there is no relationship between rainfall, temperature and livestock population such that and Ho: B1 = B2 = =0. This was hypothesized at (p<0.05) level of significance and a critical f (0.028, 0.178E-18) defined the difference between accepting the null and rejecting the null However this null hypothesis is rejected implying that the equation for the line means the rainfall and mean temperature does have an influence on livestock population. The alternative hypothesis was that at least one of the s is not zero. So by rejecting the null hypothesis it implies that the rainfall and temperature as a group are related to livestock population (table.3)

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Livestock Population by Species (Shire Valley)

350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

cattle

sheep
Fig.7

goats

pigs

Livestock Population by Species (Shire Valley)

400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2005 2007 2008 Cattle Sheep Goats Pigs

Fig.8

The numbers of cattle and small stock fluctuate considerably in response to high and low rainfall and temperature years (Fig.7). Comparably, goats do much better than any other livestock, their population increased significantly due to their management ease, low feed demand and resistance to diseases. Farmers prefer to keep goats than sheep, and prefer cattle to sheep and pigs either due to socio-cultural factors and management demand. Fluctuation in the time series are due to droughts that were experienced these years such that farmers either sold their animals to sustain themselves or had their animals stolen or die due to hunger in the community. 6.3 METADATA ANALYSIS 6.4 COPING AND VULNERABILITY WITH DROUGHT 6.4.1 Coping with drought and floods

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Fig.9 coping mechanisms to tackle feed shortage as reported by farmers in the Lower Shire Valley

Majority of farmers (98) prefer sending their livestock in the field during a normal season than any other season. However, due to availability of crop residue in a normal season, 77 of the farmers also give their animals crop residues while there is minimal desire (2) to practice pastoral systems. In drought however, few farmers (8 and 17 respectively) prefers to pastoral and feed their animals standing hay. During droughts, crop and pasture growth is affected due to lack of water, therefore this makes farmers to send their animals out. To cope up with feed shortage nearly 65% of the farmers rely on sending out the animals to look for food by themselves than providing them with feeds. This is intensified during normal season as shown (fig.4) since during other periods cases of theft are magnified. Conserving crop residue and sending animals to areas with better feed availability are the main coping mechanisms during flooding as crop re-grow after water has subsided. While sending animals to areas with better feeds are the main coping mechanism during critical feed shortages, a mechanism is also seen in most of the Sub Sahara African countries. According to Tsegaye et al.,(2008), in central highlands of Ethiopia shortage of grazing land and absence of alternative feed resources accentuate the increased dependence of crop feeds and sending animals away. Early cessation of rainfall in the Shire Valley region (Fig.9) makes pasture to dry thereby increasing the period animal stay without proper feeds. On the other hand, smallholder farmers who grow crops harvest and sell their crop stalks as fodder and if they own livestock they release their animals out into the harvested fields or lease to livestock owners as a place to graze. During droughts the farmers do not normally buy fodder for their animals instead they cut tree branches and grasses and shrubs from river valleys and communal forest in order to feed them. Stocking rates tend to be more conservative, there is less mobility in response to rainfall spatial variation, and in years of low rainfall the stocking levels have been maintained artificially high by subsidized drought feeding. In Ethiopia and Eritrea by products of maize, haricot bean and enset were among the feed resource used when natural pasture fails (Funte, et al., 2009).

6.5 WATER ISSUES IN SHIRE VALLEY DURING DROUGHTS AND FLOODS

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Aridity and drought are still a matter of confusion in the Shire Valley region, it is a natural phenomenon accompanied by naturally high climate variability .This situation is aggravated by effects of El Nio on the livestock production especially when majority of the farmers (65%) reduced the number of hectares to grow crops due to lack of water. Drought in the areas represents the exceptional periods when conditions are considerably drier than usual and its onset is slow and becomes a chronic phenomenon. Water becomes the most affected resource during such kind of events and adaptive strategies are essential for addressing increasing dryness in the area. In contrast, coping strategies are necessary during the exceptional periods when drought prevails and livestock feed scarcity increases representing disaster management on the part of farmers. What is needed in this area is proactive prevention based on reliable (weather and climate) early warning system information as well as a coordinated effort to dig water points (Borehole). Coping mechanism to tackle water shortage over Ngabu
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Sending animals to river Drought Digging Wells Floods Normal Year Using boreholes

Fig.4 coping mechanisms to tackle feed shortage as reported by farmers in the Lower Shire Valley

7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Climate variables such as rainfall and temperatures have significant impact in the production of animals in the Shire Valley. The study has shown that climate in the region has indeed changed and that frequency of climate risks has increase. Shift in the rainfall onsets and cessation has exacerbated the situation leaving most areas with poor pasture quality and quantity. The majority of respondents stressed the important role they play in livestock productions in reducing drought vulnerability stress to their herds and stock. It is established that the majority of farmers rely on their livestock to survive during drought as compared to other livelihood activities. Unfortunately, livestock sector is not given priority in terms of development by both institutions and farmers. Although farmers do enjoy the benefits secured from livestock keeping, their priority remained the improvement of crop farming than livestock production in terms of development. Most animals are left without feed and water particularly where drought is severe since the household opt for their survival first than their animals. The findings established that lack of rainfall is very effective in animal production than high temperatures as farmers believe
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that animals can find their own coping mechanism to temperatures than water scarcity. Therefore, full potential of livestock farming remain untapped given the fact that most effort was concentrated on crop farming. The study also identified some major constraints on livestock production, rainfall onset and cessation, high temperatures, theft, diseases and pests, scarcity of water, limited skills in animal husbandry and inadequate veterinary services as factors that hinder the growth of livestock production in the area. Finally, the study explored a few ways in which farmers can cope up with climate variability particularly droughts, flood and crop failures. Livestock ownership is determined by household desire to avert problems arising from climate impacts in the region such that livestock is used to secure borrowing, sharing and lending of animals. Pasture availability and pressure exalted by management of livestock also determines the type of animal one owns.
REFERENCE

Olubunmi Leke Olaleye(2010), Drought Coping Mechanisms: A Case Study Of Small Scale Farmers In Motheo District Of The Free State Province, University Of South Africa
S.Funte, T. Negesse and G.Legesse, (2009), Feed Resources and Their Management system in Ethiopian Highlands: The Case of Umbulo Wacho Watershed in Southern Ethiopia, Tropical and Subtropical Agro ecosystems, 12(2010): 47-56.

Reference:
Jane Kabubo-Mariara, (2008) Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis, Natural Resources Forum 32 (2008) 131141

S.Abela , Leonie (2008), The Contribution Of Livestock Production To Drought Vulnerability Reduction In Mwingi District,Kenya, ActionAid, (2008). The time is now: Lessons from farmers adapting to climate change. Chung Lai, (2007) , How Livestock is Used as a Coping Mechanism with Respect to Food Insecurity among Livestock Keepers of Africa: a Literature Review from a Current Perspective Working Paper, Land O'Lakes International Development. IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M.L.,Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden. P.J. and Hanson, C.E. Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22, 2007 Ministry of Agriculture (2003) Department of Animal Health and Livestock Development (DAHLD) Strategic Plan for 2003 to 2008 Ministry of Agriculture (2001), British Colonial Office; Malawi Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources

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J.T. Munthali and B.H. Dzowela (1989), Inventory of livestock feeds in Malawi, Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Research Chitedze Research Station. (MOA) (1983). Pasture Handbook for Malawi. Lilongwe, Malawi. Sweet, R.J. 1997. Towards sustainable range management in communal areas. Proceedings of 7th Congress of the Agricultural Scientific Society of Namibia, Windhoek. Sweet, R.J. 1998. Guidelines for livestock development and sustainable range management in NOLIDEP pilot communities.
http://www.ilri.org/InfoServ/Webpub/fulldocs/AnGenResCD/docs/SustainableAgriculture/Chapter26.ht m, Accessed on 12 February, 2011

Malawi Baseline Livelihood Profiles Version 1 (September 2005). Malawi National Vulnerability Assessment Committee in collaboration with the SADC FANR Vulnerability Assessment Committee The UNFCCC is an international treaty that came out of the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The UNFCCC addresses what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. There are approximately 40 Annex-1and 150 Annex-2 Parties and Observers to the convention. http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/items/2704.php .

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