Chin. Geogra. Sci. 2009 19(1) 089095 DOI: 10.1007/s11769-009-0089-x www.springerlink.

com

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China
MENG Lihong1, 2, CHEN Yaning1, LI Weihong1, ZHAO Ruifeng1, 2
(1. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) Abstract: This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably. Keywords: water resources capacity; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; membership degree; Tarim River Basin; Xinjiang

1 Introduction
Of all the natural resources required in economic development, water is the most important one, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. The water resources carrying capacity is an important index of water resources security which can provide guidance to the sustainable development of arid and semi-arid areas (Shi and Qu, 1992). Previous researches on water resources carrying capacity mainly focused on comprehensive evaluation (Wang and Yao, 2000), system dynamic simulation (Li et al., 2000) and multi-objective analysis. Some foreign scholars brought water resources carrying capacity into sustainable development theory (Miloradov and Cukic, 1995; Rijiberman, 2000; Harris, 1999; Falkenmark and Lundqvist, 1998). The research on water resources carrying capacity of the inland river basin in arid areas not only is important in establishing water resources man-

agement strategies, but also directly affects the sustainable development of local socio-economics. The ecosystems in Northwest China are extremely vulnerable due to the severe lack of water resources. The intensified contradiction between environmental protection and economic development of the region has been inevitable as a result of the exploitation and utilization of the limited water resources for the local economic activities on one hand and great concerns for the deteriorating regional environment on the other hand. The sustainable development of the regional socio-economy, therefore, has been seriously constrained. One particular area for such concern is the Tarim River Basin in the south of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Northwest China, which is the longest inland river in China, with the mainstream measuring 1321km in length (Chen et al., 2004). In the past five decades, the natural ecological proc-

Received date: 2008-06-18; accepted date: 2008-11-25 Foundation item: Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40671014, 90502007) Corresponding author: CHEN Yaning. E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn

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ess in the watershed has been obviously changed under the intensive human activities dominated by exploitation and utilization of water resources, and the conflict between ecological protection and economic development has been becoming increasingly manifest. The lower 321-km section of the river was completely dry and Lop Lake and Taitema Lake which are at the tail of the Tarim River, dried up in 1970 and 1972 respectively. Furthermore, the groundwater level in the most regions downstream lowered (Chen and Xu, 2004; Xu et al, 2008). These environmental problems led to the degradation of Populus euphratica forests over large areas, a heavy reduction of the biodiversity, and an impairment of the ecosystem structure and functions. The increasingly deteriorating environment and shortage of water resources of the Tarim River Basin have caused great concerns. Previous studies on the Tarim River Basin mainly focused on the relationship between groundwater and plant species diversity (Chen et al., 2006), and the water resources utilization and exploitation (Mao, 2001). Some researchers have also conducted research to determine the relationship between the regional economic development and ecological consequences concerning exploitation of water resources (Ma and Gao, 1997; Ma, 2000). However, there have been few attempts to study and understand the water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin. In this paper we evaluate the water resources carrying capacity by means of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, using data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002. The objective of the research is to

provide decision-makers bases for making policies on the sustainable exploitation and utilization of the Tarim River Basin.

2 Study Area
There are five prefectures in the Tarim River Basin, including Aksu, Kashi and Hotan prefectures, and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture (Mao, 2001). It is composed of nine water systems in the periphery of the basin, the mainstream of the Tarim River, the Taklimakan Desert and the eastern Gobi (Chen and Xu, 2004). With the historic changes and the intensive disturbance by human activities, especially the exploitation of oasis agriculture, great changes have taken place in the basin. Most water systems were gradually dismembered and have lost relation with the mainstream. Up to now only three water systems, the Hotan River, the Yarkant River and the Aksu River, have a natural hydraulic relationship with the mainstream. The three rivers, together with the Kaidu-Konqi River that delivers water to the lower reaches of the mainstream through the Kuta Main Canal, are called the four headstreams (Song, 1999) (Fig. 1).

3 Data and Method

3.1 Data sources The data used in this paper were collected from Water Resources Communique of Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang 2002 and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 19552005

Fig. 1 Location map of Tarim River Basin, Xingjiang, China

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(Xinjiang Statistical Bureau, 2005), which include basic situation of the four headstreams and the mainstream of the Tarim River and five prefectures in the Tarim River Basin, such as the population, land area, average annual precipitation, total water resources, total water supply and so on. The values of evaluation factors were calculated from the original data. In addition, the indices of the gradation of each evaluation factor were determined by consulting other evaluation standard of water resources (Wang et al, 2005; Xu, 1993). 3.2 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model Giving two finite groups U= [u1, u2,, um], V= [v1, v2,, vn], U stands for the aggregate composed of all the evaluation factors; V stands for the aggregate composed of all the remark grades; rij is the judge result of evaluation factor ui to remark vj, so the judge decision-making matrix of m evaluation factors is as follows (Wang et al., 2005):
R1 r11 R r 2 21 R= = Rm rm1 r12 r22 rm 2 r1n r2 n rmn

conditions, the exploitation and utilization situation, the relationship between supply and demand, and the ecological environment status well. Based on the evaluation indexes system of China (Huang and Ma, 1990), we use the grey relational analysis method (Qin et al., 2000) and choose six indexes from 14 indexes and add the reference index (Table 1) to evaluate water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin. The use efficiency of water resources is considered as the reference index.
Table 1 Results of grey relation analysis
Evaluation index Irrigation ratio of arable land Utilization degree of water resources Water supply modulus Water demand modulus Repeating utilization of industrial water Speed of GDP growth Speed of population growth Per capita domestic water GDP modulus Population density Per capita practical water supply Annual precipitation Ecological water use ratio Use efficiency of water resources Relation grade 0.74586 0.89635 0.85362 0.81420 0.71230 0.63950 0.79360 0.89690 0.74520 0.69860 0.92310 0.85230 0.74250 Reference index Chosen Chosen Chosen Chosen Chosen Chosen Chosen Result

(1)

where R is the fuzzy connection of U to V, and Ri is the fuzzy connection of ui to V. If the weight of each evaluation factor is A= [a1, a2,, am] (A is a fuzzy subclass of aggregate U, 0ai1, and the sum of ai is 1), one fuzzy subclass of aggregate V can be worked out by applying the synthetic operation of fuzzy transform, which is the comprehensive evaluation result: B = A R = [b1 , b2 , , b n ] (2) where B stands for a fuzzy aggregate of V. Fuzzy transform AR changes into common matrix calculation, which refers to many factors in all directions and is suitable for multi-factors sequence. The calculation can be described as follows:
b j = min 1,

a r
i =1

i ij

(3)

3.3 Selection and gradation of evaluation factors There are many factors which affect water resources carrying capacity. In order to choose rational index system and evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin scientifically, it is necessary to choose several indexes which can reflect the water resources

The seven evaluation factors which have been chosen in Table 1 include the use efficiency of water resources (u1) (the ratio of water supply to available water resources gross); the utilization degree of water resources (u2) (the ratio of water supply to gross water resources); the water supply modulus (u3) (the ratio of water supply to land acreage); the water demand modulus (u4) (the ratio of water demand to land acreage); per capita domestic water (u5) (the ratio of domestic water quantity to gross population per day); the per capita practical water supply (u6) (the ratio of water supply to gross population); annual precipitation (u7) (precipitation of the same year). Those seven factors have a high influence on the water resources of the Tarim River Basin, and play a great role in the water resources carrying capacity evaluation of the watershed. Consulting other evaluation standard of water resources (Xu, 1993), we define three grades for the significance of seven evaluation factors to water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin. The indexes of each grade are listed for each factor in Table 2. v1 stands for the worst situation, which shows that water

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resources carrying capacity has been close to full and more exploitation of the water resources will lead to water resources shortage and environmental deterioration; v3 stands for the best situation, which shows that the water resources still have great potential and the degree of water resources utilization and the scale of development are small. v2 is between v1 and v3, which indicates that the scale of water resources exploitation and utilization has reached certain extent, but still has certain potential for exploitation and utilization. In order to reflect the situation of water resources carrying capacity much better, the grades 01 are distributed to v1v3: 1=0.05, 2=0.5, 3=0.95 (Table 2). In this way, the influential degree of evaluation factors to water resources carrying capacity can be reflected quantitatively. The higher the grade is, the greter the potential of water resources exploitation will be.
Table 2 Indices of gradation of each evaluation factor
Evaluation factor Use efficiency of water resources (%) Utilization degree of water resources (%) Water supply modulus (103m3/km2) Water demand modulus (103m3/km2) Per capita domestic water (L/(persond)) Per capita practical water supply (m3/person) Annual precipitation (mm) Grade v1 >75 >70 >150 >150 >130 <2500 <350 0.05 v2 7550 7030 15010 15010 13070 25004500 350450 0.5 v3 <50 <30 <10 <10 <70 >4500 >450 0.95

of which can be calculated through the comparison of the actural value of each evaluation factor to the classification index of the corresponding factor (Table 2). In order to eliminate the defect of slight difference of values in each grade and jumping phenomenon existing in different evaluation grades, it is necessary to dispose membership function fuzzily and to let all grades transit smoothly (Huang and Ma, 1990). As far as v2 is concerned, the membership degree in the midpoint is 1, the membership degree in the two sides is 0.5, and the value descends linearly from the midpoint to the two sides. As far as v1 and v3 are concerned, if the distance to the critical value is longer, the membership degree will be higher; if it is in the critical value, the membership degree of the two edges will be 0.5. According to these rules, the equation for calculating each membership degree can be constructed. If the critical value of v1 and v2 is k1, the critical value of v2 and v3 is k3, and the value of v2 is k2, k2= (k1+k3)/2. For example, for the u1 (use efficiency of water resources), k1=75%, k3=50%, k2=62.5%. About evaluation factors u1, u2, u3, u4, u5, the equations of each membership function (vj(ui)) can be denoted as follows:
u i k1 0.5(1 + u k ) 2 i v1 (ui ) = k1 u i 0.5(1 k k ) 1 2 0 u i k1 k 2 u i< k1 ui < k2

(5)

When evaluating comprehensively, we calculate the comprehensive grade from j and bj in B matrix, using the following equation (Min et al., 2004):

b
j =1 3 j =1

k j

j
(4)
k j

where j stands for the grade of vj. According to the situation in arid area, k=1 (Xu, 1993). It is obvious that the higher is, the greater the potential of water resources carrying capacity will be. 3.4 Calculation of judge matrix From what has been analyzed, it is obvious that the aggregate of evaluation factors U= [u1, u2,, um] corresponds to the aggregate of remarks V= [v1, v2,, vm], and rij of the judge matrix R is the membership function of any factor ui corresponding to any grade v j, the value

ui k1 0.5(1 u k ) i 2 k1 ui 0.5(1 + ) k1 k2 v2 (ui ) = u k3 0.5(1 + i ) k 2 k3 k3 u i 0.5(1 k u ) 2 i

ui k1 k 2 ui < k1 k 3 ui < k 2 u i < k3

(6)

0 0.5(1 ui k3 ) k 2 k3 v3 (ui ) = 0.5(1 + k3 ui ) k2 ui

ui k2 k3 ui <k2 ui k3
(7)

When calculating u6 and u7, it is necessary to change into and change < into >in the equations (5)(7).

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4 Results and Analysis

According to the situation of water supply and demand of different streams (Table 3), the difference of other correlative factors, and combining regionalism, we evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the whole watershed comprehensively based on the analyses of five prefectures of Bayingolin, Aksu, Kizilsu, Kashi and Hotan.

Based on the natural, socio-economic conditions and the situation of water resources exploitation, the development program of the Tarim River Basin, and according to the basic data in 2002, we evaluate the use efficiency of water resources, utilization degree of water resources, the water supply modulus, the water demand modulus, per capita domestic water, per capita practical water supply, annual precipitation (Table 4).

Table 3 Basic situation of four headstreams and mainstream in the Tarim River Basin
Area Aksu River Yarkant River Hotan River Kaidu-Konqi River Mainstream Population (106 person) 1.1.99 1.6276 1.1119 0.7590 1.9934 Land area (km2) 42800 76950 62390 49584 17580 Average annual precipitation (mm) 221.1 260.8 262.8 213.5 40.7 Total water resources (109m3) 6.994 6.770 5.430 7.363 Total water supply (109m3) 6.0603 6.1173 2.6936 4.1204 0.8113

Note: The mainstream does not produce stream flow itself

Table 4 Statistics of evaluation indices for sub-regions with different water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin
Bayingolin Use efficiency of water resources (%) Utilization degree of water resources (%) Water supply modulus (103m3/km2) Water demand modulus (10 m /km ) Per capita domestic water (L/(persond)) Per capita practical water supply (m /person) Annual precipitation (mm)
3 3 3 2

Aksu 50.20 59.70 70.1 131.3 74 1185 286

Kizilsu 4.63 1.90 2.0 21.3 40 295 310

Kashi 50.00 88.00 75.3 160.5 48 1747 490

Hotan 45.00 31.70 24.9 52.5 57 1545 397

Tarim River Basin 35.00 44.40 28.9 71.0 94 1785 304

30.00 39.80 21.6 36.2 230 4048 192

Sources: Xinjiang Statiscal Bureau, 2005; Water Resources Communique of Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, compiled by the Tarim River Basin Administration Bureau, 2002

From the value of each evaluation factor in Table 3, the membership degree rij can be calculated according to the equations (2)(4), in which ri1=uv1(ui), ri2=uv2(ui), ri3=uv3(ui). After considering the influence degree of each evaluation index on water resources carrying capacity and the intersection of different index, each evaluation factor was endowed with different weight referring to the standard of water resources evaluation in

China. The weight of each evaluation factor can be got by level analysis method, namely A= (0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.1). Based on A and R given above, the final evaluation matrix of water resources carrying capacity can be obtained by using the equation B=A R. For example, the comprehensive evaluation of Bayingolin in 2002 is as follows:
0.193 0.745 0.583 0.687 0.116 0.726 0.120 0.808 0.255 0.417 0.313 0 0.274 0 = (0.220 0.452 0.328)

0 0 0 B = A R = (0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.1) 0 0.885 0 0.880

In the same way, the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources in other prefectures and the

whole watershed in 2002 can be figured out (Table 5), bj of matrix B is the result of each evaluation factor effects

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jointly. Based on bj of matrix B and Equation (1), the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin in 2002 can be calculated.
Table 5 Comprehensive evaluation results of regional water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin
Sub-area Bayingolin Aksu Kizilsu Kashi Hotan Tarim River Basin v1 0.220 0.308 0.241 0.313 0.149 0.216 v2 0.452 0.521 0.252 0.477 0.497 0.550 v3 0.328 0.171 0.507 0.210 0.354 0.234 Comprehensive grade 0.549 0.438 0.620 0.454 0.592 0.508

water resources exploitation and utilization is as high as 59.70% and 88%. They are both higher than those in Bayingolin and Hotan. However, the use efficiency of water resources and degree of water resources exploitation and utilization in Kizilsu are 4.63% and 1.90%, where the potential of water resources exploitation is great. From what has been discussed above, we can say that the evaluated results accord with the actual situation.

5 Conclusions and Discussion

This paper evaluates the water resources carrying capacity by means of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508, and the current water exploitation and utilization have reached a relative high degree, and there is only a very limited remaining water carrying capacity. The comprehensive grades of Aksu and Kashi are 0.438 and 0.454 respectively, the current water exploitation and utilization have reached a relative high degree, and there is only a very limited remaining water carrying capacity. The comprehensive grade of Kizilsu is as high as 0.620, and the water resources carrying capacity is much higher. The situation of Bayingolin and Hotan is intermediate between the above two extremities. In order to reduce the water resources crisis in the Tarim River Basin and to alleviate the conflicts between ecology and the economic exploitation of water resources, it is urgent to adopt some fundamental measures to promote the water carrying capacity as follows: As far as Kashi is concerned, where the utilization degree of water resources is as high as 88.0%, it is time to strengthen cropland work, encourage and guide most peasants to develop water saving irrigation, and improve use efficiency of water resources. For the prefecture of Aksu, aiming at the problems of ageing of irrigation projects, low standards of reservoirs construction, imperfect function and irrational project arrangement, it is imperative to carry out water saving irrigation, to improve irrigation guarantee rate and use efficiency of water resources. There is some potential of water resources exploitation in Bayingolin and Hotan prefectures, but the exploitation rate is low. Therefore, some measures should be adopt including exploiting groundwater rationally and using surface water sufficiently. Furthermore, it is

As is shown in Table 5, the membership degree of bj to v2 is relatively high, but the membership degree of bj to v1 and v3 is relatively low. From the results we can see that the current water exploitation and utilization of the Tarim River Basin have reached a relative high degree. Therefore, it is urgent to utilize water resources efficiently and to pay much attention to saving water resources in the economic development and environmental protection in the region. For each prefecture of the Tarim River Basin, the water resources carrying capacity of Aksu and Kashi is not optimistic, and their comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 respectively. The membership degree of comprehensive evaluation result to v1 is high as 0.308 and 0.313 respectively, but the membership degree of comprehensive evaluation results to v3 is only 0.171 and 0.210 respectively. Consequently, the potential of water resources exploitation is low. However, the situation of Kizilsu is more optimistic, the comprehensive grade is 0.620, and the membership degree of evaluation result to v1 is 0.241, but the membership degree of evaluation result to v3 is as high as 0.507. It is obvious that the water resources potential of the prefecture is relatively great, and the water resources can still sustain the economic development and environmental protection in the future. The situation of Bayingolin and Hotan is intermediate between the above two extremities. According to the analysis on the situation of water resources exploitation and utilization of each prefecture, the ratio of total water supply in total water resources is 86.65% and 90.36% respectively in the Aksu River Basin (Aksu Prefecture) and the Yarkant River Basin (Kashi Prefecture), where the degree of

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urgent to deal with the relationship among production water, domestic water and ecological water correctly according to the demand of socio-economic development and ecological environment. As for Kizilsu, some progress of water resources protection has been made. However, serial serious problems about water resources utilization and exploitation still exist, such as the waste of water resources, and the low use coefficient of irrigated water. Hence, some fundamental measures should be taken including saving water resources, accelerating the construction of disposal system of town sewage, and protecting water supply source in urban and rural areas. References
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