Speed, distance and social space: What do we make of our cities?

Dinesh Mohan

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DELHI

IIT Delhi

8 July 2011

Urban transport changing concerns

<1990 1990s 2000s-

Speed Pollution Road Safety (concern but unscientific in most countries)

Late 2000s-

Lip service to climate change

IIT Delhi

8 July 2011

India rich

India middle class

2050
India poor

Poor have to increase energy consumption

Rich and middle class must reduce energy consumption
IIT Delhi 8 July 2011

City density traditional understanding

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8 July 2011

Car use and density redone

Source: MEES, P. (2010) Density and sustainable transport in US, Canadian and Australian cities: another look at the data, World Council Transportation Research, Lisbon, Proceedings 12th WCTR.

IIT Delhi

8 July 2011

Density, cities > 10 million

Asia/Africa Europe/USA

Income

Density

Density / high rise may not be a major concern for us

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Probability of pedestrian fatality by impact speed

Percent 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Impact speed km/h 60 70

IIT DELHI 8 July 2011

DOOR TO DOOR TRIP TIMES

30 25

Walking to station/veh Journey in vehicle Congestion (car)

Walking in station - in Walking in station - out One change

Waiting at station Walking to destination

45 40 35
Time, minutes

20

Time, minutes

30 25 20 15 10 5

15

10

ELEVATED/ SURFACE Metro BRT Car CAR UNDERGRND PT PT 3 KM

60

Bicycle BICYCLE

Walk WALK

ELEVATED UNDERGRND Metro PT

SURFACE PT BRT

CAR

6 KM

Car

Bicycle

BICYCLE

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Car CAR

50

40

30

20

10

0 Metro ELEVATED UNDERGRND PT

Time, minutes

Time, miniutes

SURFACE BRT PT

12 KM

ELEVATED Metro UNDERGRND/ PT

SURFACE BRT PT

CAR

Car

24 KM

IIT DELHI 8 July 2011

Miles travelled by car & motorcycle and average male BMI (USA)
6000 29 BMI (male average)
1960 1970 1980 Year Miles per capita BMI (male average) 1990 2000 2010

5000

4000

3000

Source: Ian Roberts, 2011

IIT Delhi July 11

25

26

27

28

100 90

Delhi travel patterns

Business As Usual

km per person per week

80
70 60 50 40 30 20 10

0
Car Bus Rail Motorcycle Walk Bicycle

IIT Delhi July 11

Change in disease burden

Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths

Ischaemic heart disease Cerebovascular disease Road traffic crashes

11-25% 11-25% 27-69% 6-17%

2490-7140 1270-3650 1170-2990 180-460

Diabetes
Depression

2-7%

NA

IIT Delhi July 11

Vehicle ownership in countries with per capita incomes US$ 1,500-8,000

India 2030
Cars/100 MTW/100 France 50 10 Japan 45 10 Singapore 12 3 UK 47 2 USA 69 2

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8 July 2011

Life cycle emissions rail modes

Source: Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath 2008 Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air. WORKING PAPER, UCB-ITS-VWP-2008-2, University of California, Berkeley.

Life cycle emissions road modes

Source: Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath 2008 Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air. WORKING PAPER, UCB-ITS-VWP-2008-2, University of California, Berkeley.

Estimates CO2 emissions per passenger in Delhi

Calculations based on: Passengers carried per day (metro system and per bus) Energy consumed (Total electricity bill for Metro and diesel consumed per bus CO2 emitted per MVAH at the powerhouse, well-to-wheel CO2 for diesel Fly ash emitted by metro system not included

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ISSUES
Even cities in high income countries have not been able to solve the problems that all of us have to deal with in the near future

NO INDIAN CITY HAS MORE THAN 15% CAR USE

IIT DELHI 8 July 2011

A typical brick shelter found on a Valley Lines railway station in South Wales U.K. (left) and a redesigned transparent shelter (right) (Source: Cozens, 2004)

33 per cent increase in annual passenger flows

IIT 8 July 2011 IIT DELHIDelhi 2009

FRIENDS & URBAN TRANSPORT

Light traffic 2,000 v/day

3.0 friends 5.3 acquaintances

Moderate 8,000 v/day

1.3 friends 4.1 acquaintances

Heavy traffic 16,000 v/day

0.9 friends 3.1 acquaintances

Source: Dr.Carlos Dora

IIT DELHI 8 July 2011

An understanding
Unless the walking trip is safe from accidents, harassment, and crime, people avoid using public transport. Therefore, safety emerges as a precondition for promoting public transport use Crime could be reduced by having eyes on the street (Jane Jacobs). Shops/street vendors. Vendors only need 11.5 m and they can occupy spaces between trees without bothering pedestrian traffic.

A vendor using a non-motorised mode coming to your home to sell vegetables does more to prevent global warming then you driving a less polluting car to a supermarket.
The transportation system is driven by positive feedback, people to drive/commute longer distances at higher speeds to a larger house at lower prices. Just focusing on public transport not the answer

IIT Delhi

8 July 2011

Safe roads a precondition for the future low CO2 city

Children, elderly, walking speed ~ 0.8 m/s Pedestrian green phase < 30 s

Therefore, motorised lanes < (30 X 0.8) = < 24 m

Shops and/or street vendors by design

City blocks ~ 800 m square

Maintain urban average speeds at 15 km/h Public transit on surface
IIT Delhi

8 July 2011