PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS.

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1.

BACKGROUND

The principal objective of the MBIPV Projects is to create an enabling environment that will subsequently lead to a sustainable and widespread application of BIPV program in the 10th Malaysian Plan. BIPV will generate a green energy while enhancing the aesthetical aspect of the building. The most important factor for Malaysian to consider installing PV on their roof will be about saving money; hence, to expand the BIPV business in Malaysia the technoeconomics of BIPV must show substantial return-on-investment to draw a larger demand. Without subsidy from the government, the capital cost of MBIPV project will be around RM25000 per kWp. However, with increasing cost of electricity each year, the value of MBIPV will raise considerably. A techno-economic evaluation of MBIPV will imply whether the amount of investment spent (input) is reasonable to the total energy generated (output) of the project. 2. PROJECT OVERVIEW

Photovoltaic (PV) energy generating systems (or PV systems) convert the suns energy directly into electricity using state-of-the-art semiconductor materials. PV systems vary in complexity. Some are called stand-alone or off-grid systems, which mean they are the sole source of power to a home, water pump or other load. Other PV systems are called grid-connected systems. These work to supplement existing electric service from a utility company. When the amount of energy generated by a grid-connected PV system exceeds the customers loads, excess energy is exported to the utility, turning the customers electric meter backward. Conversely, the customer can draw needed power from the utility when energy from the PV system is insufficient to power the buildings loads. Under this arrangement, the customers monthly electric utility bill reflects only the net amount of energy received from the electric utility. Most MBIPV use the grid-connected system. Each type of system requires specific components besides the PV modules. Generating AC power requires a device called an inverter. Battery storage requires special batteries and a battery charge controller. The cost of any PV system ultimately depends on the PV array size, the battery bank size, and other components required for the specific application. To obtain a complete system design, particular power needs, site location, local weather conditions, and specific equipment used must be put into consideration. A final cost will be generated after deducting the cost of roofing materials or faade, depending on the type of installation, vis a vis the same PV array size that will be installed. Listed below are PV project that will be involved in this evaluations. PTM will suggest other projects to be included if the need arises. a) College of Engineering Building, Universiti Tenaga Malaysia, Kajang, Selangor. b) Taman Solar, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor. c) Hydrogen Eco-House, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor. d) Universiti Islam Antarabangsa, Jalan Gombak, Selangor. e) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor. f) SIRIM, Seksyen 2, Shah Alam, Selangor. g) SIRIM Berhad, Environmental & Energy Technology Center, Shah Alam, Selangor. h) Solar PV Research Technology Center, TNB Research Sdn. Bhd., Kajang, Selangor. i) No. 11, Rumah Pegawai Kanan TNB, Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan. j) No.1, Jalan Keris 11/4A, Seksyen 11, Shah Alam, Selangor. k) Sekolah Seri Chempaka, Bukit Damansara, Kuala Lumpur. l) TASKA TNB Research Sdn. Bhd., Kajang Selangor. m) No.8, Jln SS14/6K, Subang Jaya, Selangor. n) Computer Integrated Farming, Technology Park Malaysia, Bukit Jalil, Selangor o) Enterprise 4, Technology Park Malaysia, Bukit Jalil, Selangor.

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

p) q) 3.

Zero Energy Office, PTM. Low Energy Office, Ministry of Energy, Water, and Communication. PROJECT OBJECTIVES

This study will be focused on the grid-connected MBIPV system on the following area: 1. Electricity generation performance 2. Impact of the project to the grid network 3. Techno economics performance 4. Recommend appropriate solutions to promote demand for MBIPV projects 4. A. METHODOLOGY Conducting field studies to gather data listed below; all parties incorporated in this survey will be notified, and cooperation will be obtained beforehand by CETREE or PTM: i. Evaluate the energy model of each MBIPV system. Listed are data that will be gathered:
Site Conditions Project name Project location Nearest location for weather data Latitude of project location Annual solar radiation (tilted surface) Annual average temperature DC energy demand for months analysed AC energy demand for months analysed Water demand for months analysed Equivalent pumping energy demand System Characteristics Application type Grid type PV energy absorption rate PV system configuration Base Case Power System Source Fuel type Specific fuel consumption Power Conditioning Suggested inverter (DC to AC) capacity Inverter capacity Average inverter efficiency Miscellaneous power conditioning losses Battery Days of autonomy required Nominal battery voltage Battery efficiency Maximum depth of discharge Charge controller (DC to DC) efficiency

N MWh/m C MWh MWh m MWh

% L/kWh kW (AC) kW (AC) % % d V % % %

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Battery temperature control Constant battery temperature Minimum battery temperature Average battery temperature derating Suggested nominal battery capacity Nominal battery capacity PV Array PV module type PV module manufacturer / model # Nominal PV module efficiency NOCT PV temperature coefficient PV array controller Miscellaneous PV array losses Suggested nominal PV array power Nominal PV array power PV array area Genset Charger (AC to DC) efficiency Suggested genset capacity Genset capacity Fuel type Specific fuel consumption Power Conditioning Average inverter efficiency Suggested inverter (DC to AC) capacity Inverter capacity Miscellaneous power conditioning losses

C C % Ah Ah % C % / C % kWp kWp m % kW kW L/kWh % kW (AC) kW (AC) %

Annual Energy Production (12.00 months analysis) Equivalent DC energy demand MWh Energy from genset (Diesel (#2 oil) L) MWh Equivalent DC demand not met MWh Water delivered m Specific yield kWh/m Overall PV system efficiency % PV system capacity factor % Renewable energy collected MWh Renewable energy delivered MWh Excess RE available MWh

ii.

Resource and system load calculations

Nearest location for weather data Latitude of project location PV array tracking mode Slope of PV array Azimuth of PV array Monthly Inputs Average daily radiation Average temperature N

kWh/m /d C

iii.

Cost Analysis:

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

a. Initial cost. i. Feasibility study ii. Development cost iii. Engineering cost iv. Energy equipment cost b. Annual cost. i. Property ii. Taxes iii. Insurance iv. maintenance c. Periodic cost. i. Repair ii. replacement iv. v. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction analysis. Financial Summary. a. b. c. d. e. f. vi. vii. B. Annual energy balance Financial parameter (avoided utility cost, RE production credit, etc.) Project cost & saving Financial feasibility study Cumulative cash flow Yearly cash flow

Sensitivity and Risk analysis Return on investment. Project Assistants, interviewers, enumerators, data analysts will be identified by the research team to: a) Enable questionnaire distributed according to the sampling and target group b) Carry out the survey/data mining in selected MBIPV project, explain the objective of the questionnaire, send it back to the researchers for data analyzing c) Provide summary statistics Meeting stakeholders to determine and ensure focus objectives. A questionnaire which includes all components to satisfy the project objectives will be used. All statistical result will satisfy 95% confidence level. Return on Investment will be calculated from the data collected. Simulation/forecast study will be shown using PV-Design Pro or Solar Pro Ver.3.0 or PV*SOL Professional.

C. D. E. F.

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5.

LOGFRAME* (Draft Framework for Study)

Intervention Logic
A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS To assess installation cost of each MBIPV project listed. Objectively Verification Indicator (OVI) Data on appliances performance behavior is set up Physical data on each MBIPV project gathered and capital cost calculated Source for Verification 1 Draft/ Technical Assessments 1 Draft/ Technical Assessments
st st

Assumption Activities suggested are allowed by parties involved Data provided by PTM System Efficiency data provided by PTM. Record of energy generated available Activities suggested are allowed by parties involved Activities suggested are allowed by parties involved Activities suggested are allowed by parties involved

Overall Objective

Project Purpose

1.0

2.0

To asses electricity generation performance of each MBIPV installation listed.

Technical data on each MBIPV project gathered

1 Draft/ Technical Assessments

st

3.0

To asses the impact of each MBIPV installation to their connected network grid based on: 1) High density BIPV grid 2) Low density BIPV grid 3) PV capacity below 50kWp 4) PV capacity above 50kWp To determine the cost effectiveness of each MBIPV installation listed. Recommend appropriate solution to enhance demand for BIPV in Malaysia Identification of installation cost of each MBIPV project listed. Identification of power output record /electricity generation performance of each MBIPV installation listed. Ascertain the impact of each MBIPV installation to their connected network grid based on: 1) High density BIPV grid 2) Low density BIPV grid 3) PV capacity below 50kWp 4) PV capacity above 50kWp Identification of information relating to the cost effectiveness of each MBIPV installation listed. Identification of appropriate solution to enhance demand for BIPV in Malaysia

Data on energy output and energy usage of each MBIPV installation gathered.

nd

Draft/ Technoeconomic Report 2 Draft/ Technoeconomic Report

nd

4.0

Data on overall cost per energy output calculated

5.0

Statistical data and forecast simulation completed

Project Final Report

st

Result Level

Access and availability 1 Draft to relevant documents, (Technical information, and records Assessments) Access and availability to relevant documents, information, and records 1 Draft
st

Access and availability to relevant documents, information, and records

2 Draft (Technoeconomic Report

nd

Access and availability to relevant documents, information, and records Access and availability to relevant documents, information, and records

nd

Draft

Final Report

Table continue to the next page

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table continue from previous page Activity Level 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4
Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Data collection and Analysis

5.5 Report Writing and Presentation * The above Logframe is a summary to Logical Framework Approach; CETREEs method of solving problem systematically. In the above Logframe, Projects Objectives, as subjected by PTM, was list down as Project Purpose. Result Level indicates expected result from each project purpose. In order to achieve the project purpose, numerous action and activities are planned. Activity Level shows actions that need to be done in-line with the result level and project purpose.

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6.

PROJECTS SCHEDULE
Activity/Month in 2006 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Output 1.0 : installation cost of each MBIPV project Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Output 2.0 : power output record Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Output 3 : Impact of MBIPV installation to network grid Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Output 4 : MBIPV Cost effectiveness Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Field trips , audits of sites Data collection and Analysis Report Writing and Presentation Output 5 : Solutions to enhance BIPV demand in Malaysia Research strategy and design Stakeholders meeting Determine best method to tackle problem Data collection and Analysis Final Report Writing and Presentation

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11

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7.

EXPECTED OUTCOME

A final report adhering to PTM requirements that contains: a. Study population that will be define clearly, complete with study interval. b. Base line, saturation level, peak/off-peak usage data of BIPV system across Malaysia will be shown and classified by density of system (capacity greater than 20% local demand, capacity less than 10% of local demand), types of installations, orientations and etc. c. Detailed power consumption/generation pattern. d. Return on investment for each MBIPV installations. e. Potential growth of the MBIPV industry. f. Mathematical model showing forecast of future consumption. g. Solutions for a greater MBIPV demand in the future. Technology transfer will include: I. In-depth method of techno-economic evaluation. II. Systematic data manipulation techniques. III. Mathematical models of surveys.

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PROPOSAL: A DETAILED EVALUATION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON MBIPV INSTALLATIONS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8.

BUDGET ITINERARY

Expense Category 1.0: Consultancy Fees Industrial Forecaster (6 man-month x1) Data manipulator (6 man-month x 1) Operation Director/Manager (6 man-month x 1) 2.0: Information Management and Analysis Equipments and Materials (Computer, software, AV) Monitoring, Evaluation, & Reporting (6 man month x 1) Research Officer(Field workers, Data analyst) (6 man-month x 1) 3.0 Stakeholder Meeting Travel & Lodging (return air-fare and local transport) 4.0: Field Study Travel & Lodging (return air-fare and local transport) Operational and Communication costs (Courier, Telephone, Fax, Postage, Photocopying, Cartridge, Paper, Printing) Miscellaneous (5%) Subtotal Contingency (15%) Subtotal USM fees (10%)

Amount p unit (RM) RM3,000.00 per man-month RM 3,000.00 per man month RM 3,000.00 per man month

Cost (RM) 18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00 10,000.00

RM 2,500.00 per man month RM2,500.00 per man month

15,000.00 15,000.00 3,000.00 15,000.00 5,000.00 5,850.00 122,850.00 18,427.50 141,277.50 14,127.75

Grand Total

155,405.75

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