FX DAILY REPORT

MONDAY JULY 4 2011

Bell FX Currency Outlook

The Australian Dollar as benefitted from Greeces rescue package and strong US manufacturing data for June to start the week firmly after touching a high of 1.0788 on Friday night.
Greece to cover maturing obligations in mid-July. This was expected after the Greek Parliament passed a variety of austerity measures last week but all agree further work still needs to be done. All financial markets were buoyed by the better PMI data in the US which saw the index rise to 55.3 from the previous month of 53.4 and higher than the 52 expected. European and US equity markets moved higher on the figure with the Dow and S&P 500 both up 1.4%. Oil was off slightly to US$95 a barrel for WTI crude and US$112 for Brent crude. With safe haven concerns lessening, gold fell slightly to US$1,488 an ounce. The AUD remained firm on Friday afternoon after Chinas PMI data for June was released which was slightly lower than expected but still at an expansionary level of 50.9. Anything over 50 indicates continued growth. Most analysts still expect the Chinese economy to expand at level of 9.3% in Q2 yoy, a result that is likely to keep the AUD firm. Today in Australia, the release of job ads for June, building approvals and retail sales for May will give us an indication of how the local economy is travelling. Last month job ads fell by 6.5% from the previous month while building approvals were down 1.3% mom and retail sales were up 1.1%.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 Aug-06

Australia: The EU approved a new loan package of EUR12bn for

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Todays Forecast Range

USD 1.0725-1.0795
Currencies AUD / USD USD / JPY EUR / USD GBP / USD NZD / USD AUD Crosses AUD / JPY AUD / EUR AUD / GBP AUD / NZD AUD / CAD Australian Rates Official Cash 3 Month Bill 10 Year Bond Last 1.0772 80.84 1.4545 1.6063 0.8281 Last 87.09 0.7401 0.6702 1.3005 1.0329 Last 4.75 4.98 5.280 Last 0.25 0.246 3.180 Last 1482.60 94.94 336.71 Last 4591 12583 5990 22398 9868 0.246 3.160 - / + (%) -1.3 -0.5 -0.4 - / + (%) -0.4 1.4 0.7 1.5 0.5 5.03 5.195 Previous High 1.0788 80.96 1.4557 1.6096 0.8302 High 87.24 0.7434 0.6714 1.3026 1.0351 Previous Low 1.0674 80.25 1.4448 1.5983 0.8244 Low 86.25 0.7375 0.6662 1.2922 1.0291

Majors: The EUR continued its strength against the USD as the Greek dramas eased although EU and German PMI data for June were flat when compared to the US data. The UK PMI data for June disappointed as well which pushed the GBP lower and helped the AUDGBP to a new 26 year high of over 0.6700 All AUD cross rates remain very firm but we expect very little movement today as the US celebrates today their July 4 Independence Public Holiday which will see all US markets closed. Have a good day.

Economic Calendar 4 JULY

US Rates US Independence Day Public Holiday EU Euro-Zone PPI MAY AUST Retail Sales & Building Approvals MAY AUST TD Securities Inflation MAY Fed Funds 3 Month Libor 10 Year Bond Commodities Gold (US$ / oz) Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) CRB Index Equities ASX 200 Dow Jones FTSE Hang Seng Nikkei

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