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MEHB513: Introduction To Nuclear Technology

Introduction

Contents
1. Worldwide Nuclear Power Development 2. Nuclear Power Development in Malaysia & TNB 3. Malaysia Nuclear Power Roadmap 4. Introduction to Nuclear Energy 5. References

Worldwide Nuclear Power Development

Worldwide Nuclear Power Development (1)

104
100

Source : KAIF, Jan. 2008

80

60

59

55 27 20 19

40

20

18

17

15

11

10

USA

France

Japan

Russia

Korea

Ukraine Canada Sweden China Germany UK

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (2)

34
GRAVELINES PALUEL PENLY

900 MWe units

20 1300 MWe units 4 1500 MWe units

EPR

CHOOZ FLAMANVILLE CATTENOM NOGENT / SEINE DAMPIERRE BELLEVILLE FESSENHEIM

ST-LAURENT

58 PWR units

CHINON CIVAUX

63184 MWe installed

451.5 TWh produced in 2005

BUGEY ST-ALBAN CRUAS TRICASTIN

LE BLAYAIS GOLFECH

Connection to the grid : Unit 1 (Fessenheim 1) : April 1977 Unit 58 (Civaux 2) : December 1999

May 2006 : EDF announced the decision to build a first EPR in France (Flamanville)

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (3)

Presently, Japan is the 3rd largest fleet of NPPs in operation, 55 reactors (49.47 million kW, 35% of total generation mix). Additional 13 more NPPs will start operation.

Source: TEPCO,JAPAN 2009

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (4)

Ulchin 8 units

In operation

20 units
(17,716 MW)

Wolsong 6 units

Under `construction 8 units

(9,600 MW)

Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility

(Under construction)

Kori 8 units

Seoul
Under planning
(15,400 MW)

Yong-gwang 6 units

10 units

In Operation Under Construction

Source: KEPCO,KOREA 2009

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (7)

Muria Site

14 Potential Sites in Java 5 Chosen Sites in Java

Source: Country Report Indonesia (B. Suprawoto, Q. Romandhi, M. Hasan), KNPEI, Busan, RoK, 2005.

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (8)

Source : EGAT, 2009 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP09)

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (9)

10

3 candidate sites Hoatam, Tuyhoa, Phuyen

Vinhhai, Ninhhai, Ninhthuan Phuocdinh, Ninhphuoc, Ninhthuan

Source: Vietnam Country Report, APEC Training Course on Korean Nuclear Power Technology, 2005

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (11)

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Global Expansion of Nuclear Power is Underway; Doubling of Demand Expected by 2050

1 4 5 7 8 10 17 19 59

1 1 2 6 11 17 20 55

1 1 2 5 6 3 2

2 2 2 18 104

1 2 1 2 4 5 6 15 31

439
7 2

35

319

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (12)

12

Fuel Methane, CH4 Propane, C3H8 Octane, C8H18 Ethanol, C2H5OH Glucose, C6H12O6 Coal, C96H135O9NS Hydrogen, H2 (for combustion) Uranium-235

Specific Energy, kJ/g. 50.7 46.0 41.2 27.8 15.6 ~30 249 90,000,000

CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage

Source: IAEA

Specific Energy of Alternative Fuel

Comparison of Carbon Burden by Energy Source

Full production chain from uranium mining to waste disposal (cradle to grave) for nuclear power only produced 1-6 gram of carbon per kilowatt-hour

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (13)

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Type of Power Plant Coal Fuel Oil Natural Gas (Combined Cycle) Nuclear (fission) Thermonuclear (fusion) Solar

Fuel for 1,000 MWe for 1 year 2 x 106 tonnes of coal 1.96 x 109 of gallons oil 87.6 x 109 scf of gas 30 tonnes of uranium 0.6 tonnes of tritium/hydrogen 100 km2 area 3,000 x 1 MWe wind turbine 30,000 km2 of plantation area 16,100 km2 of corn 800 x 106 chicken

Source: IAEA

Comparison of Generation Cost (USD/MWh) by Energy Source

Wind Biomass Bioalcohol Biogas

Fuel Requirement for Different Type of Power Plants

Source: EPRI, 2006

Comparison of Capital Cost (USD/KWe) by Energy Source

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (15)

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WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (14)

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Technology Photovoltaic Wind Bioalcohol

Resource basis for 1000 MWe 100 km2 @10% efficiency 3,000 wind turbines @ 1 MW each with 33% capacity factor 6,200 km2 of sugar beets 7,400 km2 of potatoes 16,000 km2 of corn 272,000 km2 of wheat 24,000 km2 of rapeseed 30,000 km2 of wood < 1 km2

Bio-oil Biomass Nuclear

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (17)

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Comparison of Radioactive Exposure from Various Sources

Average annual effective per capita dose (mSv) 10 2.4

0.4

0.1 0.005 0.01

0.001

0.0002

0.0001 Natural Sources Atmospheric nuclear testing Sources

About 2.4 mSv/year (world average) of natural radiation exposure >> 0.05 mSv/year of targeted radiation level around NPP

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (18)

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Capacity Factor
(%) 100 80 60
40 20

93.3

89.9 76.1 59.2

World Average 79.4% 73.1 76.7 66.7

Unplanned Capability Loss Factor

(Shutdown/Unit-year) 7.9 5.8 4.4

``

KOREA

USA

France

Japan Russia Germany Canada

Source: Nucleonics Week (Mar. 2009) 0.8

1.5

KOREA

USA

France

Japan

Source: IAEA (2008)

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (19)

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71.1 Sales Price in KOREA (US/kWh), KPX in 2007 10.4 10.7 11.7

3.9
Nuclear

4.1

6.5

9.4

Soft coalHard coal

Hydro

LNG

Wind

Oil

Solar

178% rise
150

For the past 20 years

100 Consumer prices
Electricity rate 1982

Consumer prices: 178% rise

5.4% rise
2006

50

Electricity rate: 5.4% rise

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Cost Analysis
(NT$/KWH) 2008 2.25 3.60 5 1 0 1 0 . . . . . 0 8 6 3 5 6 7 2 4 9 2007 1.79 3.32 3 1 0 1 0 . . . . . 7 1 6 2 6 2 8 3 8 6

NT$ / KWH

4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5

Average Combined Cycle(LNG) Oil Coal Nuclear Hydro. Kuosheng

Oil Combined Cycle (LNG)

Average Coal Hydro Nuclear

'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08

Kuosheng (Taiwan NPP) has maintained a low generation cost (around 2 US cents / kWh)

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (22)

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WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (23)

Electric Consumption (kWh/person/year)
12,000 10,000
8,249 8,246 11,052 10,185 NE Asian Nuclear countries

21

8,000 6,000

8,019

4,000
2,000 0
Australia Taiwan Japan Singapore South Korea

3,422 2,341 2,000

Malaysia

Romania

China

Source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2008 and The World Fact Book, 2009

WORLDWIDE NP DEVELOPMENT (24)

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ASEAN + 3 (China, S.Korea and Japan)

Source: The World Fact Book ,2009

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Nuclear Power Development In Malaysia

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (1)

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............ Tenagawan June 2009

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (2)

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29 April 2008: TNB Board approved the setting-up of 3 teams/committees: 1. Nuclear Energy Taskforce 2. Nuclear Interest Group 3. External Nuclear Advisory Panel 29 August 2008: TNB Board agreed to rename 1. Nuclear Energy Taskforce Nuclear Energy Unit 2. Nuclear Interest Group Nuclear Pre-Project Team, and 3. RM2 million budget in FY2008/09 was also approved to carry out a list of proposed planning and preparatory activities. 09 September 2008: TNB gave approval to engage CRA International for a White Paper on Nuclear Roadmap for Malaysia. This 2nd White Paper complements the 1st White Paper on Long Term Energy Security (Options) prepared by Planning Division.

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (3)

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NUCLEAR ENERGY UNIT

NPP SITING & LICENSING

TECH. ASSESSMENT & 3S COMPLIANCE

FUEL CYCLE & HEALTH PHYSICS

Legal & Regulatory Fwork Licensing Communication/ Public Acceptance Siting Emergency Planning EIA/RIA

Technology Assessment
Safety, Security & Safeguard (3S) Issues Engineering Quality Assurance Pre-operation Tests Grid Connection

Front End Fuel Cycle/

Assurance of Supply Back End Fuel Cycle/ Radwaste Management Health Physics/ Radiological Protection

Nuclear Energy Unit Responsibilities (as of 15 Dec 2008)

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (4)

BOP Project Mgt. Siting Pre-FS, FS QA

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Siting Study

GAD
Stakeholder Mgt. & Communication Strategy

TNBR
Economic & System Analyses

Corp. Comm. Dept.

System Planning

Legal Dept.
Legal & Regulatory Framework (Act 304) Legal related matters

Finance Dept.
Funding and Financial Analysis

HRM Dept.
Manpower Development Subject Matter Experts Safety (OSHA) Training

UNITEN
Nuclear education

Nuclear Energy Unit Collaboration With Other TNB Departments (Nuclear Pre-Project Team)
Nuclear Energy Unit also acts as a one-stop centre to coordinate with TNB internal Departments and collaborate with external parties on nuclear matters

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (5)

Khazanah Nasional Berhad Malaysia Nuclear Agency Energy Commission Atomic Energy Licensing Board

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Ministry of Energy, Green Tech & Water

Ministry of Finance IN-COUNTRY

Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation

REGIONAL

Economic Planning Unit

Asia Nuclear Safety Network (ANSN) HAPUA HR WG8 (Nuclear Power) Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia (FNCA)
Nuclear Energy Unit also acts as a one-stop Centre to coordinate with TNB internal Departments and collaborate with external parties on nuclear matters

INTERNATIONAL

IAEA

KEPCO/TEPCO

NGOs & SUPPLIERS

Nuclear Energy Unit Collaboration External Collaboration

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (6)

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2008: TNB Management gave approval to engage CRA International for a White Paper on Nuclear Roadmap for Malaysia. This 2nd White Paper complements the 1st White Paper prepared by Planning Division with assistance of CRA. TNB Research commenced NPP Site Survey (desktop study) to develop NPP Siting Methodology and its application to identify potential NPP sites in Peninsular Malaysia in December 2008. The study has completed in July 2009. Next plan: appointment of a reputable foreign consultant for site selection and qualification and choose the preferred NPP site(s). 2009: TNB Management gave approval to collaborate with KEPCO to undertake a Nuclear Preliminary Feasibility Study. TNB has MOU with KEPCO and nuclear power development is one of agreed areas of cooperation. Agreement between TNB and KEPCO was signed in June 2009. The 12-month Pre-FS collaboration is expected to end in June 2010.

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (7)

DEMAND FORECAST 2008 ~ 2030
50,000

30

44,000 MW

45,000

40,000

35,000

Peak Demand (MW)

30,000

25,000

20,000

27,000 MW

15,000

10,000

5,000

14,000 MW
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2007 Adopted Forecast 2008 TNB E-Council LOW 2008 Government 2008 TNB E-Council MOD 2008 Published Sources 2008 TNB E-Council HIGH

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24,000 22,000 20,000

50% 45% 40%

35% 18,000
30% 16,000 25% 14,000 12,000 10,000 2009 2011 2013 2014 Capacity with Bakun (MW) Peak Demand (MW) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Capacity without Bakun (MW) Reserve Margin (%) 20% 15% 10%

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (10)

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Year

Accumulated Peak Installed Demand Capacity (MW) (MW) 14,291 19,380 24,023 10,673 13,809 16,132

Reserve Margin (%)

2000 2005 2009 *

34.1 40.3 48.9

* Preliminary figures

Source: EPU, PINE3 Seminar 2009

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (11)

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The pattern/shape of the demand has a significant impact on the technology selection Different technologies have different technical and economic characteristics and operational capabilities

14 12

14 12
Served by high-cost generators (e.g., gas turbines), also hydro

Hourly Load [GW]

8 6 4 2 0 Jan
Sort highest to lowest

Hourly Load [GW]

Mar May Jul Sep Nov

10

10 8 6 4 2 0
0 1460 2920 4380 5840 7300 8760

Served by medium-cost flexible generators (e.g., coal, combined cycles) Served by low-cost base load generators (e.g. nuclear)

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (12)

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coal (35%) & gas (~50%) fuel

BASE LOAD

DEMAND

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (14)

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* Preliminary figures

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (15)

Historical and Projected Generation Mix (GWh)

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200000

Post 2020
HISTORICAL PROJECTION
Nuclear Sarawak Import Bakun

Energy Generation (GWh)

150000

Nuclear Sarawak Import Bakun Coal

100000

Natural Gas Distillate Oil Hydro

Coal

50000

Natural Gas

Oil

Peninsular Hydro

19 7 19 6 7 19 8 8 19 0 8 19 2 8 19 4 8 19 6 8 19 8 9 19 0 9 19 2 9 19 4 9 19 6 9 20 8 0 20 0 0 20 2 0 20 4 0 20 6 0 20 8 1 20 0 1 20 2 1 20 4 1 20 6 1 20 8 2 20 0 2 20 2 2 20 4 2 20 6 2 20 8 30

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (16)

Hydro 7% Distillate/ Oil 0%

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Nuclear 10% Gas 30%

Coal 29%

Gas Coal Hydro Distillate/Oil Gas 64%

Hydro/RE 30%

Generation Mix (%) 2008

Generation Mix (%) 2030

Coal 30%

2015 to 2020:
Bakun 800/1000MW in 2015 and second 800/1000MW in 2017. Another 1000MW import from Sarawak in 2019 Gas to the power sector to be maintained at 1,350 mmscfd for the entire period No new coal plants, annual coal import contained at 20 million tonnes Remaining Peninsula hydro to be developed

Post 2020 (2021 2030):

Another 5,000 MW import from Sarawak by 2030 Gas to the power sector maintained at 1,350 mmscfd for the entire period Nuclear plant Small hydro and other renewables to be developed

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (18)

Options Natural Gas Issues
Demand exceeds supply Depleting local gas supply Power sector gas supply uncertain beyond 2019 Non power sector clamoring for power sector gas allocation Gas price not reflecting cost of supply; lack of incentive for new supply investment

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Possible Solutions
Further gas resource development from marginal fields and import of gas from Indonesia, JDA, etc. Reconsideration of benefits & costs of future piped gas export to Singapore More sustainable basis for allocating gas for power & non-power sectors Leverage on LNG terminals being built by Thailand and Singapore Development of LNG regas terminal in Pen. Malaysia Remove subsidy gradually

Source : PETRONAS

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Source: NEB 2007

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (19)

Options Issues
Over reliance on coal > 40% Supply risks (availability & political) Price risks including FOREX Scarcity of suitable sites for future coal plants Environmental & climate change regulation
US$ / mt

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Possible Solutions
Continuous strategic coal procurement Diversification to other sources of generation Strategic investment in coal mines Use of advanced technology e.g. CCS, IGCC in the longer term Coal Market Prices
2007 2008
NEWC

Coal

RB

210.00 200.00 190.00 180.00 170.00 160.00 150.00 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00

2006

High & Volatile Coal Prices

JPU

K1 (5900 GAR)

K2 (5000 GAR)

6/1/2006

7/1/2006

8/1/2006

9/1/2006

1/1/2007

2/1/2007

3/1/2007

4/1/2007

5/1/2007

6/1/2007

7/1/2007

8/1/2007

9/1/2007

1/1/2008

2/1/2008

3/1/2008

4/1/2008

5/1/2008

6/1/2008

7/1/2008

8/1/2008

9/1/2008

1/1/2009

10/1/2006

11/1/2006

12/1/2006

10/1/2007

11/1/2007

12/1/2007

10/1/2008

11/1/2008

Date

12/1/2008

2/1/2009

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (20)

Options Peninsula Hydro Issues
Remaining hydro resources (1,725MW) are small and mainly for peaking (2 3 hours operation a day)

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Possible Solutions
Developing Hulu Terengganu (250 MW) and Ulu Jelai (372 MW) to commission in 2013/2014 To develop multi purpose scheme of Lebir and Nenggiri for flood mitigation, power, etc. To systematically develop the remainder hydros

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (21)

Options Renewable Energy Biomass & Solar Issues
Small scale and intermittency not enough to materially provide security of supply Economically unattractive Wind low wind speed Biomass fuel supply & transport issue

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Possible Solutions
Systematic promotion with proper policy and incentives for viability Focus on developing mini-hydro, solar, biomass and biogas Need feed-in tariff Landfill

Approx. RM 1.50/kWh

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (23)

On 26th June 2009, the Government decided for nuclear energy to be one of the fuel options for electricity generation in post 2020, particularly for Peninsular Malaysia. CABINET COMMITTEE ON ENERGY NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT STEERING COMMITTEE Ministry of Energy, Green Technology & Water PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT WORKING COMMITTEE Malaysia Nuclear Agency PROJECT DEVELOPMENT WORKING COMMITTEE Tenaga Nasional Bhd. (TNB)

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REGULATORY DEVELOPMENT COORDINATION WORKING COMMITTEE Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) & Energy Commission (EC)
Source: Nuclear Malaysia - TNBR Report, 2009

NP DEVELOPMENT IN MSIA & TNB (24)

NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT STEERING COMMITTEE NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM WORKING COMMITTEE
Educational Awareness Program and Public

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NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT WORKING COMMITTEE

Site Identification Nuclear Fuel Procurement Planning Nuclear Power Plant Conceptual Design
(including Project Management and Quality Assurance)

Human Capital Development

Technology Assessment

REGULATORY DEVELOPMENT COORDINATION WORKING COMMITTEE

Regulation and Licensing of Electricity Generation Regulation and Licensing of Nuclear Power Plant

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No. (i)

Preparatory Activities (2010-2012) Awareness and Capacity Building

(ii)

Comprehensive Feasibility Study: Feasibility Public Acceptance National Industry Preparedness Technology Development Plan National Human Capital Readiness Determination of Nuclear Power Plant Location(s) Dissemination of Public Information

(ii)

IAEA MILESTONE
Nuclear power option Included within the national Energy strategy MILESTONE 1 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment To a nuclear programme MILESTONE 2 Ready to invite bids for the first NPP MILESTONE 3 Ready to commission and Operate the first NPP

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Infrastructure development programme

PHASE 3 PHASE 2 Activities to implement a first NPP PHASE 1 Preparatory work for the Construction of NPP after A policy decision has been taken

Maintenance and continuous Infrastructure improvement

Consideration before a Decision to launch a nuclear power programme is taken

1st NPP project

Pre-project

Project decision making Feasibility Study Bidding process

Construction

Operation/decommissioning Commissioning

?10-15 years

Source : IAEA TECDOC 1555 Managing the First Nuclear Power Plant Project.

NUCLEAR ROADMAP FOR MALAYSIA

MILESTONE 0
Nuclear power is considered as a possible option Ready to include nuclear as realistic national energy strategy option

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MILESTONE 1
Ready to make commitment to a nuclear

MILESTONE 2
Ready to invite bids for the first NPP

MILESTONE 3
Ready to commission and operate first NPP

Infrastructure development programme

PHASE 0

PHASE 1

PHASE 2

PHASE 3

Readiness to include nuclear as a national energy strategy option

Considerations before decision to launch nuclear power program is taken

Preparatory work for construction of a NPP after a policy decision has been taken

Activities to implement first NPP

Pre-policy

Pre-project

Project definition

Construction

Ops

Policy decision

Investment feasibility study

Procurement process

Commissioning

2009

2013

Investment analyses

2016

2018

2025

NPP Project Timeline

Source: TNB,Nuclear Roadmap For Malaysia, 2009

Maintenance and continuous infrastructure improvement

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