Does Speed Kill?

Forgotten Facts of US Highway Deaths in 1950s and 1960s

By Dr. V. Laxmanan

Carnage on the US Highways

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Table of Contents
Page No. Summary Introduction A brief review of historical fatalities data Brief history of traffic safety legislation The reason for the historical decrease in highway fatalities Impact of NMSL on fatalities post-1973 Further considerations: Pros and Cons Conclusions Table 1: Historical highway fatalities data Appendix 1 Comments and Feedback 3 4 6 13 15 18 20 33 35 42 43

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Summary
A brief review of the historical trends in US traffic fatalities, since 1929, is presented here within the context of the recent attempts to increase the posted speed limits on US highways, most notably in Texas. The public outrage due to the epidemic of US highway deaths in the 1950s and the 1960s prompted Congress to hold its highly publicized hearings in 1966 and the enactment of safey legislation, signed by President Johnson later that year. However, it appears that the National Maximum Speed Limit (NSML) of 55 mph, enacted as an energy saving measure in 1973, following the Arab oil embargo, had a greater and immediate impact on the reduction in highway traffic fatalities than the traffic safety legislations, which no dobut had a delayed and longer term effect (via the introdcution of vehicle safety features like seat belts and airbags). Some pros and cons in the debate on increasing speed limits and the impact on fatalities and crashworthiness of vehicles have been discussed briefly. A more detailed discussion of the specific effect of speed limits (on fatalities) may be found in a companion document where it is shown that the universal mathematical law, y = hx + c, relating the number of fatal crashes (x) and the number of fatalities (y) can be used to assess the effect of increasing or decreasing the speed limits.

A Fresh look at the Iowa, Kansas, Montana and Txas motor vehicle fatalities data. Effect of Speed Limits on Fatalities: Texas Proofing of Vehicles http://www.scribd.com/doc/59153773/Effect-of-Speed-Limits-on-FatalitiesTexas-Proofing-of-Vehciles

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1. Introduction
In traffic safety research we encounter two important dates or years: 1966 and 1973. The main purpose here is to call attention to the historical facts regarding the epidemic levels of highway traffic fatalities that engaged our national attention in the fateful year of 1966. Does Speed Kill? This is no doubt a politically charged topic, with different interest groups drawing their own conclusions, and pulling in different directions, even when confronted with exactly the same facts. Nonetheless, here is a humble attempt by a lone citizen to sound a cautionary note amid the renewed attempts in many states across the US to increase the speed limits on our highways.
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The 1927 Durant Motor Star, produced by William Durant, the founder and the first CEO of General Motors. This car can be rented to tour San Diego for $50 to $70 per hour plus $150 to $200 for the first half-hour. http://editorial.autos.msn.com/mostunusual-tourist-vehicles#4

Also, for the first time, the Center for Disease Control (CDC), has recently released the state-by-state societal costs of motor vehicle crashes. Highway fatalities cost $41 billion annually. The CDC announcement coincides with the kickoff of the United Nations Decade of Action, an international effort aimed at saving 5 million lives, though 2020, by working cooperatively towards greater road safety. http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1059966_cdc-highway-fatalities-cost41-billion-annually Indeed, it would be tragic if highway-accident-related fatalities were to start increasing once again and reach the historically high level that was last seen in 1972, the year before the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Statistical projections of traffic fatalities show that in 2010 an estimated 32,788 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is a 3% reduction over 2009 levels. If these
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projections are realized, highway traffic fatalities will be lowest on record (since 1949). The graphical representation of the traffic fatality data, compiled annually by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), as seen in Figures 1 to 4 here, tells its own story. Indeed, here a picture is certainly worth a thousand words. Let these graphs do the talking. The detailed captions attached with each figure permit an unbiased assessment of the traffic fatality data and will hopefully lead to a repeal of the misguided attempts to increase speed limits. This also represents a simple and new approach to analyzing the fatality data without excessive reliance on the calculation of simple ratios, such as the widely used fatality rate. As will become obvious, the national speed limit of 55 mph, instituted in the historical year of 1973, yielded the twin benefits of improved fuel economies and reduced traffic fatalities.

The 1955 Cadilla available for tours of Memphis, TN. http://editorial.autos.msn.com/most-unusual-tourist-vehicles#2

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http://www.ugpti.org/pubs/pdf/DP188.pdf

Driver Behavior

Driver Drinking Too Fast Not Wearing Seat Belts

Montanas Likeliest Fatal Crash Scenario A Pick up A Rural road And Seat belts not used

http://www.lakecountypublichealth.org/index.php/buckle-up-montana/

2. A brief review of historical traffic fatality data compiled by NHTSA

The NHTSA uses the fatality rate as its single most important measure of traffic safety. The fatality rate is the ratio y/x where x is the total vehicle miles traveled (usually expressed in billions) by all US drivers and y is the absolute number of highway fatalities. To arrive at a simple tractable number the rate is determined per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (acronym VMT). Although, this fatality rate y/x has now reached a historical low in 2010, exclusive focus on this ratio, while overlooking the underlying x-y trend, might be misleading, as will become evident from the graphical representation of the historical data being attempted here.

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Figure 1: Graph of the absolute number of US highway fatalities since 1957. The raw data used to prepare this graph may be found in Table 1(relegated to the end of this document). The absolute number of highway fatalities were quite low in the 1950s and reached a peak in the late 1960s to early 1970s and have since decreased to levels seen in the 1950s, although the vehicle miles driven (in millions) has been increasing: from 646,915 in 1957 to 2,560,373 in the year 2000, see also Figure 2. The fatality data from other government sources have also been studied by the author and lead to the same conclusion of a peak in highway deaths around the late 1960s to early 1970s.

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Figure 2a: Graphical representation of the absolute number of US highway fatalities versus annual vehicle miles driven (in trillions). The number of miles driven by US drivers has increased each year, since 1957, as seen in Table 1. The absolute number of highway fatalities has increased as well, reaching a peak in the late 1960s to early 1970s. The same peak is also seen here in the graph of the absolute number of highway fatalities versus vehicle miles driven. Improvements in vehicle safety devices (notably seat belts and airbags) coupled with the institution of the national highway speed limits (starting mid 1970s), and also improved highways, are the primary reasons for the decrease in fatalities. These historical trends suggest that renewed attempts to increase the speed limits on our highways would be counterproductive and may eventually lead, once again, to an increase in fatalities, with tragic

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consequences.

Figure 2b: Graphical representation of the US highway fatality data for the period 1921-1982. The first year for which a fatality rate y/x could be computed is 1921. The number of fatalities was 13,253 and VMT was 55.03 billion yielding a fatality rate of 24.08 per 100 million VMT. The fatality rate for any year is the slope of the ray, i.e., the straight line joining the (x, y) data point back to the origin (0,0) of this graph; see dashed line for 1921 superimposed on to the graph. The fatality rates (slopes of such rays) had been declining quite consistently, although the absolute number of fatalities increased, as seen here, ultimately leading to the Congressional hearing in 1966. Is VMT the single most important reason for the increasing fatalities?

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Figure 3: Graphical representation of the traffic fatality data for the 15 year period 1994-2009. A sudden precipitous drop in the absolute number of fatalities (at least on the magnified scale used here), and hence the fatality rate, has been observed over the three-year period 2007-2009. However, it should be noted that the x-y scatter graph here shows a general upward trend, with fatalities actually increasing with increasing VMT (as in the earlier era, 1950s and 1960s) during the 12-year period spanning 1994-2006, although the rate y/x shows a misleading downward trend. Why is the rate, y/x, going down? The reason is very simple and it may be just a mathematical artifact. The equation of the best-fit straight line through the most recent data points is of the form y = hx + c = 2.865 x + 34,420 where h is the slope of the line and c the intercept. (Note that x here is VMT in billions. The numerical value determined using this equation must be divided by 10 to get the rate per 100 M VMT.) Hence the fatality rate, given by the ratio y/x = h + (c/x) = 2.865 + 34,420/x, can actually decrease with increasing values of x because of the nonzero intercept c. Unlike the ray through the origin, the best-fit line does not pass through the origin (0,0). If we consider only the most
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recent data, the intercept c is positive and fatality rates y/x decrease with increasing VMT and increasing fatalities. In the earlier era, both the slope h and intercept c had very different values due to several factors being discussed here (speed limits, technology, highway design, etc.)

Table 2: Traffic fatality data for the recent 15-year period 1994-2009 (Source: NHTSA)
Year Highway fatalities, y 40,716 41,817 42,065 42,013 41,501 41,717 41,945 42,196 43,005 42,884 42,836 43,510 42,708 41,259 37,423 33,808 Vehicle miles traveled, VMT (billions), x 2358 2423 2486 2562 2632 2691 2747 2797 2856 2890 2965 2989 3014 3032 2974 2979 Fatality rate, y/x, per 100 million VMT 1.73 1.73 1.69 1.64 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.51 1.48 1.44 1.46 1. 42 1.36 1.26 1.13 Fatal crashes

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

36254 37241 37494 37324 37107 37140 37526 37862 38491 38477 38444 39252 38648 37435 34172 30797

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Figure 4: The most significant metric used by NHTSA is the fatality rate per 100 million vehicles miles traveled (VMT). This is now at a historical low of 1.13 for 2009, having declined year after year, from 1.73 in 1994. The NHTSA, however, also compiles other types of data on crashes. There are three types of crashes: fatal, injury but no death, and property damage only. A careful review of this crash data for the period 1994-2009 reveals the obvious: the lower the number of (fatal) crashes, x, the lower the number of highway-accident-related fatalities, y. It is also obvious that the number of fatalities per crash is greater than one, i.e., more than one person is being killed when one of more vehicles experience a crash. Clearly, this is the single most important piece of information that one needs to reduce the number of fatalities on our highways. Vehicle design and engineering, as well as all other policy matters (legal, political, social, environmental, financial) must be guided by this simple graph. The best-fit line through the data, derived using simple linear regression, has the equation, y = hx + c = 1.14x 1026.6 and is
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superimposed on to the data. The design engineering goal and societal goal should be to reduce the slope h of this statistically significant best-fit line to its ideal value of h = 1. A fatal crash, by definition, is one where at least one person dies, either an occupant or a non-motorist in the path of the vehicle. Hence, the ideal slope h = 1.

Photograph of an accident scene from the period 1955-1965 http://www.corinthsocialhistoryproject.org/html/highwaytolls.html

3. A Brief History of Traffic Safety Legislation

The following is extracted from the Wikipedia article on National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Highway_Traffic_Safety_Administration In 1965 and 1966, public pressure grew in the US to increase the safety of cars. The number of deaths on US highways were increasing year after year,
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see Figure 1, and in 1966 Congress held a series of highly publicized hearings on highway safety. This led to the legislation for mandatory installation of seat belts, which also created the US Department of Transportation (on Oct 15, 1966). http://www.ems.gov/pdf/2011/EMSWeek2011_Strickland.pdf

The following is extracted from a Washington Post article on NHTSA, dated April 2, 2002.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/includes/nhtsa_primer.htm In 1966, after decades of rising traffic fatalities (also vividly illustrated in Figures 1 and 2 here), the publication of Ralph Nader's "Unsafe at Any Speed" and increasing public outcry for safer automobiles, Congress held a series of highly publicized hearings on creating a regulatory agency for traffic safety. Among the witnesses was William Haddon, an epidemiologist who introduced the idea that traffic accidents could be analyzed scientifically and injuries reduced by changing auto design, such as installing collapsible steering columns, safety glass, head rests and seat belts. Congress passed the Highway Safety Act of 1966 creating the National Highway Safety Bureau, with Haddon as its first administrator. The bureau became NHTSA in 1970 under the newly established Department of Transportation. An early Nader convert, Joan Claybrook, headed NHTSA under President Carter and now runs Nader's organization, Public Citizen.

National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act

http://www.answers.com/topic/national-traffic-and-motor-vehicle-safety-act Signed into law by President Lyndon Johnson on September 9, 1966, this act created the first mandatory federal safety standards for motor vehicles. The act was motivated by a variety of factors. First and foremost, the public was growing increasingly concerned over the rising number of traffic fatalities on the nation's roads. Such fatalities had increased by nearly 30 percent between 1960 and 1965, and experts forecasted 100,000 such deaths
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annually by 1975 unless something was done to improve traffic safety. Adding fuel to the fire, Ralph Nader's Unsafe at Any Speed, published in November 1965, criticized the automobile industry for neglecting safety in favor of "power and styling" when designing new vehicles.

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4. The reason for the historical decrease in highway fatalities

A recent news item, see link given below, regarding renewed attempts to increase the speed limit by many states, prompted this write up by the present author who has studied traffic fatality data extensively and analyzed them very carefully over the last several years. http://money.msn.com/auto-insurance/why-speed-limits-arerising.aspx?GT1=33033 Residents of Metro Detroit area, who frequently cross into Ohio from Michigan, notice that the speed limit has now increased in Ohio. The speed limit on Michigan highways was increased to 70 mph in the late 1990s but Ohio retained its lower speed limit for many years, leading Michigan drivers to experience a speed trap of sorts. The speed limit is also increasing in many other states, notably Texas, where it is proposed to increase it to 85 mph, at least in West Texas. Historically speaking, from a traffic fatality standpoint, we must consider two important dates: 1966 and 1973. Only 1973, the year of the Arab oil embargo, following the Arab-Israeli war (that led to what President Obama has recently called the pre-1967 border for Middle East peace), is mentioned in the above article. It fails to mention the significance of the year 1966. Prior to 1966, there was actually NO speed limit in many Western states and deaths due to highway accidents were increasing year after year. The
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number of highway fatalities went up from 38,702 in 1957 to 51,524 in 1965, a 33% increase over the 1957 level and an additional 12,822 deaths in 1965 compared to 1957. It was this carnage on the US highways that forced Congress to hold its hearings on highway traffic fatalities in 1966. Nonetheless, a careful examination of the fatality data in Table 1 shows that notwithstanding the highly publicized Congressional hearings of 1966 and new safety legislation that was enacted, the absolute number of fatalities continued to increase after 1966 and only started decreasing after 1973. Vehicle designs, especially the introduction of safety features (even the simplest like safety belts), did not change significantly between 1966 and 1973. Nonetheless, post-1973 we begin to see a dramatic turnaround. Why? After the 1973 Arab oil embargo, a nationwide maximum speed limit (NMSL) of 55 mph was imposed and accepted in the USA (effective Jan 1, 1974), during the Nixon administration, primarily as an effort to conserve fuel and reduce the US vulnerability to oil imports. The unintended, and indeed fortunate, consequence of this reduced speed limit was the immediate reduction in the fatalities revealed in Figures 2 and 3. This is the real reason for the peaks in highway fatalities observed in these two graphs. The Congressional hearings of 1966 did eventually have an impact but it was a delayed one. The impact of the 1973 nationwide speed limit of 55 mph was, however, immediate, as we see from the magnified plot of the same data in Figure 5 and a closer examination of the raw fatality data in Table 1. The number of highway-accident-related fatalities decreased immediately: from a high of 55,704 in 1972 to just 46,078 in 1974, a 17.3% drop, see arrows. There were 9626 fewer deaths annually, even with a slight increase in the vehicle miles driven (see Table 1). Indeed, the number of highway death reached its absolute peak value in 1972, never to be seen again. Fatalities have been decreasing every since, with slight fluctuations about each new low value.

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Figure 5: Expanded view of the fatality data showing the immediate impact of the national speed limit of 55 mph following the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Note that fatalities continued to rise between 1966 and 1973 in spite of the highly publicized Congressional hearings in 1966 and the traffic safety legislation enacted soon after.

Each new low is probably associated with vehicle safety innovations and the improvements in vehicle design and engineering. The combined beneficial effect of improved vehicle designs, primarily the introduction of seat belts and the laws enforcing usage of seat belts, aided by the reduced speed limits, contributed to the continued decline in the absolute number of fatalities that started since 1973 and has continued to this day. The subsequent introduction of other safety features, notably air bags, has contributed to a further reduction in highway fatalities.
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State police Trooper First Class Jeffrey Flowers looking at a car in which a Boswell, Pennsylvania, woman was injured Tuesday (May 31, 2011). The accident occurred at an intersection when a truck (seen behind the wrecked car) entered this accident prone intersection (part of a highway safety corridor where signs are posted to reduce unsafe driver behavior). There have been four accidents at this intersection since 2006, none fatal. http://www.dailyamerican.com/news/somerset/da-ot-womaninjured-in-route-30-wreck-20110531,0,4165420.story

5. Numerical calculations of decline in fatalities and the impact of NMSL post-1973

Lets consider the decline in fatalities between 1972, the last year before the adoption of the NMSL, and 1974, the first year following its adoption after the Arab oil embargo. There was an immediate decrease in the number of fatalities, by 9393, i.e., y = -9393, with a slight increase in the VMT, i.e., x = 20,758 millions. The NHTSA data used here may be found in the table at the end of this document. The numerical value of the rate of change per billion VMT (i.e., neglecting the sign) was therefore y/x = 452.5 fatalities/billion VMT (1972-1974)

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It is instructive to compare this rate of change in fatalities with similar short periods of a decline in fatalities in the pre-1973 era, when speed limits were much higher. The absolute number of fatalities declined, over a relatively short period, with both an increase and a decrease in VMT. The results are given below and are self-explanatory. y/x = 45.4 fatalities/billion VMT (1953-54) decline with increase in VMT y/x = 65.5 fatalities/billion VMT (1942-43) decline with decrease in VMT y/x = 173.9 fatalities/billion VMT (1941-42) decline with decrease in VMT y/x = 452.8 fatalities/billion VMT (1937-39) decline with increase in VMT y/x = 254.8 fatalities/billion VMT (1931-32) decline with decrease in VMT The rate of decline observed between 1953 and 1954, with an increase in VMT, was just one-tenth of that observed following the adoption of the 55 mph speed limit. The war years (1941-43, WWII) and the Great Depression era (1931-32) were accompanied by big declines in fatalities, with decreasing VMT, but the rate of change was still significantly lower than observed after the adoption of the NMSL. The only apparently inexplicable decline is that between 1937 and 1939 where a nearly identical high rate of decline was observed. Notice also the big drop in the traditional fatality rate between 1937 and 1938. This large drop appears to coincide with the creation of the National Safety Council (NSC) by William H. Cameron in June 1937 (see link below), with its far-flung campaign of education, legislation, research, highway engineering and traffic training undertaken by the NSC and some two dozen other groups with the backing of the automotive industry through its Automotive Safety Foundation. Other factors, unknown to the present author, probably, also played a role. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,883797,00.html#ixzz1O2G 7rnUg
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These simple computations here, however, reveal the significant effect of reduced speed limits on highway fatalities, much more so than other factors.

6. Further Considerations: Pros and Cons

The singular effect of increased speeds (or speeding) on highway fatalities has been studied and demonstrated by a number of industry sources, such as the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), Consumers Union, and also by government researchers. http://www.smartmotorist.com/traffic-and-safety-guideline/excessive-speed-isa-factor-in-one-third-of-all-fatal-crashes.html http://www.consumersunion.org/other/speedlimits/speed031500a2.htm Speed defined as exceeding the posted speed limit or driving too fast for given conditions is a factor in nearly one-third of all fatal crashes. Besides fatality, in 1998, nearly 40,000 people were critically injured in speed-related crashes and nearly 72,000 were moderately injured. The salutary and immediate beneficial effect of the nationwide 55 mph speed limit, has been noted by other researchers (see Susan Ferguson, link below). http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/enforce/speed_forum_presentations/fergu son.pdf After a partial repeal of this law, in 1987, which granted states the authority to increase speed limit (especially in rural interstates), a 1989 study showed a 15% increase in fatalities in rural interstates and a 5% increase in non-rural interstates. Unfortunately, such studies often tend to be discounted by advocates of increasing the speed limits as being produced by biased industry sources. Similar conclusions were also presented by NHTSA in February 1998, in its report to the Congress, entitled Report to Congress : The Effect of Increased Speed Limits in the Post-NMSL Era, see link given below. Among its key

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findings, is the following, quoted in its entirety. NMSL refers to the National Maximum Speed Limit legislated after the Arab oil embargo of 1973. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/808-637.PDF

.. Nevertheless, it is important to note that data currently available from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administrations (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) shows that states that increased speed limits in 1996 experienced approximately 350 more Interstate fatalities than would have been expected based on historical trends -- about 9 percent above expectations. Concurrently, the Interstate fatalities experienced in states that did not increase speed limits in 1996 was consistent with pre-1996 trends. The estimated increase in Interstate fatalities found in this study, while smaller in magnitude compared to the estimated change in fatalities found in 1987 following the increase of speed limits on rural Interstates, does follow the historical pattern of increases in fatalities being associated with increases in posted speed limits. The annual crash reports compiled by NHTSA, see Table 3, indicate that the number of fatal crashes (and hence fatalities, using the regression equation developed in Figure 4), increase as the posted speed limits increase.
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Table 3: Posted speed limits and number of crashes Speed Limit Crashes (2008) Crashes (2009)
3277 5516 6074 8847 6124 30,797

30 mph or less 3705 35 or 40 mph 6115 45 or 50 mph 6461 55 mph 9794 60 mph or higher 6908 Total 34,017 Source: http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811402EE.pdf

6.1 Studies cited in favor of lower speed limits

A detailed analysis of speeding related fatalities (see link below) by NHTSA shows that a third of all crashes involve speeding, i.e., at least one driver was speeding. http://www.cid.army.mil/documents/Safety/Current%20Focus/Speeding%20R elated%20Fatal%20Motor%20Vehicle%20Traffic%20Crashes.pdf Furthermore, the above report, which covers the period 1983-2002, indicates that immediately after the NMSL was completely abolished in December 1995, the number of speeding related fatalities, at speeds above 65 mph, increased from just 15 in 1995 to a 677 in 1996 (see Table 6.2 on page 43 of above report). It continued to increase in the years since climbing to 930 in 2000. More detailed studies, similar to that noted above, by researchers at the University of Illinois, Chicago, led by Lee S. Friedman, again lead to the conclusion that higher speed limits lead to an increase in the number of fatalities (see American Journal of Public Health, online July 16, 2009). http://health.usnews.com/health-news/managing-yourhealthcare/articles/2009/07/16/deaths-injuries-increase-with-higher-speedlimits
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http://www.medpagetoday.com/PublicHealthPolicy/PublicHealth/15122 http://www.americaneer.com/speed-limits/ http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/archive/index.ph p/t-171870.html For the study period 1995-2005, these researchers found that 12,545 deaths and 36,582 injuries could be attributed to the increased speed limits. The benefits of reduced speed limits are stated quite eloquently by Dr. Friedman and are reproduced below (from above news article, see link) "Reduced speed limits would save lives," Friedman said. "They would also reduce gas consumption, cut emissions of air pollutants, save valuable years of productivity (lost due to injuries)and reduce the societal cost of motor vehicle crashes (due to both fatal crashes and due to nonfatal and severe life-changing injuries)," he added. Friedman and coworkers have also shown that increasing the speed limit led to an immediate increase in the number of fatalities on Israeli roadways (see link below). http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/13/3/156 The effect of speeding is very significant, especially in rural areas, resulting in significantly higher fatalities. Fatality rates are frequently double or triple that in urban areas (see link below). http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/data_facts/docs/speeding_rural.pdf As of Jan 1, 2005, five Midwestern states had increased the speed limits to above 65 mph (Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota) whereas three (Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin) had not. All the five states with increased speed limits showed a 7% to 13% increase in fatalities. The NHTSA study considered an eight year period before and after the change in Dec 1995 (see Table 1 in link below). The collective experience of the states that did NOT increase the speed limit was a 7% decline in fatalities (see Table 2 of link below). http://www.iowadot.gov/mvd/ods/stats/2006speedstudy.pdf
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Moreover, Table 5 in the above study shows the effect of imposing the NMSL of 55 mph in Iowa and its repeal in 1995. Considering a four-year average, before 1974, when the speed limit was 75 mph, there were 35 fatal crashes with 43 fatalities. In the first four years after the 55 mph, there were only 23 fatal crashes and 28 fatalities. In the last four years before the repeal of 55 mph in 1995, there was a further decline to 14 fatal crashes with 17 fatalities. The Iowa fatality data will be discussed in more detail separately (in a later report) since it provides the opportunity to assess the effect of a change in the speed limit on the relationship between number of fatalities and fatal crashes (as seen in Figure 4, for the US as a whole). North of the US border, Canadians seem to be citing the shocking increase in highway fatalities in the US states where the speed limits were raised, to curb their own speed limits. http://archive.safety-council.org/info/traffic/speed-02.html http://archive.safety-council.org/info/traffic/speed.html Speed kills, but speed also sells notes the second of the above news items. Manufacturers are producing more high performance cars (with higher horse power to weight ratio) and ads feature enticing cars that race and swerve in miraculous ways on empty roads. These subliminal messages encourage drivers, especially young drivers, to break the speed limit, leading to the absolute increase in highway fatalities (although the rate itself is going down!). The article emphasizes the need to enforce the speed limit on Canadian highways and in cities, where street racing is becoming a problem.

6.2 Studies cited by opponents of lower speed limits

In fairness, to quote the opponents on the other side of this debate, Montana reverted back to Reasonable and Prudent speed limits when the National Maximum Speed Limit was repealed in 1995 and appears to have experienced no significant increase in fatalities.
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http://www.hwysafety.com/hwy_montana.htm http://www.motorists.org/press/montana-no-speed-limit-safety-paradox http://www.southbayriders.com/forums/showthread.php?t=81453&page=1 Likewise, studies in the state of Maryland showed no significant increase in highway fatalities when the speed limit was increased from 55 mph to 75 mph. The reason might simply be that drivers were already speeding much more so when the speed limit was 55 mph than after the increase to 75 mph. In other words, the fatalities data already reflects the effect of higher speeds (not speed limits) on the number of fatalities. In Utah, the experimental increase in the speed limit to 80 mph was considered to be a success in terms of safety. http://autos.aol.com/article/utah-speed-limit-tests/ The UDOT Director noted that there was no increase in the number of accidents on Interstate 15. But what happens in the event of an accident when the speed limits are higher and drivers are driving at higher speeds and two objects collide at this higher speed? However, no increase in the number of accidents is not the same as no increase in fatalities due to the higher speeds. When accidents do occur, do fatalities increase? Likewise, in California, when the speed limit went up from 55 mph to 65 mph, in 1995 (after repeal of NMSL), fewer deaths were reported in 1998, compared to the peak year of 1979 or even 1987. Again, the explanation seems to be that motorists were already speeding when the limit was 55 mph and that increasing the speed limit did not change driver behavior in any significant way. http://articles.sfgate.com/1998-11-02/news/17735730_1_speed-limits-mphlimit-death-rate The National Motorists Association (NMA), a group which advocates higher speed limits, emphasizes the importance of considering fatality rates as opposed to the raw fatalities. The argument used is that fatality rates, based on the fatality per 100 million VMT, is the legitimate way to look at the data.
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This is a never ending debate. Historically speaking, fatality rates have been going down ever since the compilation of traffic accidents data began. Table A1 in the appendix of a recent report by NHTSA (see link below) has highway fatality rate data going back 1921. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811346.pdf see appendix, page 31 http://www.motorists.org/speed-limits/truth http://www.motorists.org/other/crash-data http://www.raisethespeedlimit.org/myths.html http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa346.pdf According to Stephen Moore of the Cato Institute (see last of the links above), All measures of highway safety show improvement, not more deaths and injuries since 1995. Despite the fact that 33 states raised their speed limits immediately after the repeal of the mandatory federal speed limit, the NHTSA reported last October that the traffic death rate dropped to a record low level in 1997. Moreover, the average fatality rate even fell in the states that raised their speed limits.

6.3 The Fatality rate: Is it a reliable metric?

In 1921, with fewer fatalities and fewer miles driven, and the first year for which the fatality rate could be computed, the rate was 24.08. It was down to 14.79 in 1931 but the number of deaths had climbed to 31,963, more than double the 1921 absolute fatality number of 13,253. It had dropped to 5.50 in 1966, the year of the highly publicized Congressional hearings but the number of fatalities had climbed to 50,984 in that fateful. The Highway Safety Act of 1966 ranks as one of the major acts of Congress and President Johnson signed it saying that we have been tolerating a raging epidemic of highway deaths., see extract pasted below. http://www.enotes.com/major-acts-congress/highway-safety-act

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The act was motivated primarily by growing public concern over the rising number of traffic fatalities in the United States. Between 1960 and 1965, the annual number of traffic fatalities increased by nearly thirty percent. As President Lyndon B. Johnson stated at the signing of the act on September 9, 1966, " ... we have tolerated a raging epidemic of highway death ... which has killed more of our youth than all other diseases combined. Through the Highway Safety Act, we are going to find out more about highway diseaseand we aim to cure it." Nonetheless, highways fatalities continued to increase until the Arab oil embargo of 1973 led to the NMSL of 55 mph all across the USA. Do we just ignore this undeniable historical record and focus only on the declining fatality rate, as the NMA and other proponents of higher speed limits seem to argue (see links above)? The misleading nature of using fatality rates (per 100 M VMT) alone is also obvious if one considers fatality data for individual states. Take, for example, the state of Montana which seems to have experienced no increase in fatalities after repeal of NMSL. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/departments/nrd30/ncsa/STSI/30_MT/2009/30_MT_2009.htm For the period 2005-2009, the absolute number of fatalities for Montana varied between a high of 277 in 2007 to a low of 229 in 2009. The fatality rates per 100 M VMT, on the other hand, varied from a high of 2.45 for 2007 to a low of 2.01 for 2009. The corresponding US fatality rates varied from 1.36 to 1.14. Is the higher number for the fatality rate for Montana, compared to USA, good or bad? Likewise, fatality rate per 100,000 of population was much higher for Montana than the US as a whole. This again highlights the pitfalls of using simple ratios to assess fatality statistics without a full analysis of the underlying trends. We will discuss this point separately. As shown already, the continuous decline in the fatality rate is a mathematical artifact and essentially overlooks the unmistakable positive correlation between the variables x and y, of the type y = hx + c, which becomes obvious
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only when we prepare the x-y scatter graph. The ratio y/x = h + (c/x) can decrease with increasing x (VMT) and increasing y (fatalities) since the intercept c has a positive value when we consider only data spanning a short period (such as 1994-2009, of more relevance to the current situation). The debate between fatality rates and absolute number of fatalities is an unending one. A few years ago, the Wall Street Journal carried an article which was entitled (or something close) Unemployments rate in Ohio are going down but why is the number of unemployed increasing? The reason is the same. The graph of the number of unemployed (y) versus the number in the labor market (x) is linear with a positive slope h and a positive intercept c. So, the unemployment rate computed using the ratio y/x keeps going down, year after year, although the number unemployed keeps increasing. Is it a good thing that the unemployment rate is going down when more people seem to be unable to find gainful unemployment? Or, consider the situation with cancer death rates. This too has been going down in recent years, but the actual number of cancer-related deaths has not declined in any significant way. Is it good that cancer death rates are going down? In all these situations, the researchers, or the socio-econo-politico analysts involved in analyzing the trends in the data have failed to consider the underlying x-y relation describing each problem. Hence, it appears that the debate on the effect of increased speed limits should not be focused on only the fatality rates (which have been decreasing and proponents of higher speed limits cite this in their arguments) or even the absolute number of fatalities (which has been the focus here) but on the relationship between speed and the number of fatal crashes and the number of fatalities within each speed segment (see Table 3 and also Figure 4). Unfortunately, details of number of fatalities and the number of fatal crashes, at each speed limit are not available, even from NHTSA, for detailed study. When a crash does occur (it is immaterial how many miles were driven), the speed of the driver and vehicle design and engineering, including safety devices in place (seat belts, airbags, other impact absorbing technologies)

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determine if the occupants(s) will be killed. One cannot argue that speed does NOT kill. That would be an absolute denial of the laws of physics! Studies show that setting the speed limit at the 85th percentile in any given zone (this is the speed at or below which 85% of drivers are observed to travel in traffic engineering studies) is the safest speed limit. The majority of drivers try to obey the posted speed limit while a few choose to drive at a speed they consider is safe and prudent. These are also, perhaps, the most vociferous advocates of higher speed limits. It is this tension caused due to differences in speeds that leads to tailgating, improper passing, reckless driving, weaving from lane to lane and ultimately crashes and deaths in some unfortunate cases. http://blog.motorists.org/speed-limits-slower-safer/

MARK TAYLOR ANOTHER LOST: A man was killed when his 4WD drive hit a tree east of Morrinsville (in New Zealand) on Monday, May 30, 2011. The driver lost control of the vehicle on a bend, probably tried to correct his mistake and put the car into a yaw, causing it to leave the road and smash sideways into a tree. Alerts to slow down had been posted since this was a high accident area but the driver probably did not pay attention.

6.4 Other factors

Many other factors, besides speed, no doubt affect highway fatalities. The vehicles of the 21st century are very different from the vehicles of the mid 20th
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century. Technological innovations such as improvements in vehicle design and engineering have greatly increased crash worthiness of vehicles, even at high speeds. Environmental factors, such as the weather also contribute to accidents, but not necessarily to increased fatalities. Drivers actually tend to slow down instinctively during adverse weather conditions (rain, snow storms, etc.) and although such weather may contribute to increased accidents, the lower speeds actually reduce fatalities. Yes, technology has changed fundamentally from 1966. Drivers today are more distracted by their cell/mobile phone conversations (and also built-in phones in luxury models) and text messaging than the drivers of the pre-1966 era. High end cars now have many multimedia and internet features. Again, a careful observation (even personal experience by the author) suggests that such distracted drivers actually tend to (instinctively) drive more slowly and hold up the traffic. Perhaps, such behavior leads to an increase in the number of accidents but it does not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of accident-related fatalities. Much talked about technological innovations such as automatic collision avoidance systems and sensors (on the sides of vehicles) can indeed detect vehicles in the front and neighboring lanes. Furthermore, vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication systems can no doubt avoid collisions and accidents. Again, such collision avoidance systems work and are effective entirely because they automatically reduce vehicle speeds - even if one of the offending vehicles is being at a super high speed. Also, it must be remembered that such futuristic systems have not yet been implemented widely, nor can they be implemented widely, since the large majority of vehicles on the road are NOT luxury models. Advanced safety features come with a price and not all drivers can afford to pay that price and buy that additional safety. Ultimately, it is the laws of physics that govern what will happen when two or more vehicles collide, or even when a single vehicle collides with a stationary infrastructural object (a bridge, a wall, a building, or some impediment on the road). The lower the number of crashes, the lower the number of fatalities, as revealed by the 1994-2009 data graphed in Figure 5. The higher the speed of
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the object, or objects, that are involved in a collision, the higher the kinetic energy K that must be absorbed and/or dissipated. Increasing the posted speed limit only increases the energy that must be absorbed when a crash does occur. This, ultimately, is the most important criterion determining the number of fatalities. The kinetic energy increases as the square of the speed, being given by the well-known formula K = mv2, where m is the mass of the vehicle (in laypersons language m increases directly with vehicle weight) and v is the speed. For the same vehicle mass, an increase in the speed from 55 mph to 85 mph increases the kinetic energy K by a factor of 2.39, or roughly a 250% increase in the kinetic energy that must be absorbed in a collision. Ideally speaking, the kinetic energy of the colliding object(s) is absorbed by the vehicle infrastructure (a sturdy space frame, the engine, other vehicle components, etc.) and/or the surroundings. However, in the unfortunate cases where this kinetic energy must be absorbed by the vehicle occupant(s), the result is severe life-altering injuries and/or death. An unequivocal relationship between an increase in vehicle speeds and fatal accidents can be demonstrated by a careful examination of available traffic fatality data. This is a more involved discussion and is not the purpose of this short communication. These topics are no doubt very politically charged, with many social, legal, and financial implications, with each interest group favoring a different conclusion. Nonetheless, we cannot escape the laws of physics as they govern the fundamental need to absorb higher and higher values of the kinetic energy K with increasing vehicle speeds. This same point is also emphasized by Dr. Friedman of the University of Illinois, Chicago (see earlier discussion). Speed kills because of these energy transfer considerations and there can be no doubt about it. Innovative 21st century solutions to speed management on the highways, such as strict enforcement of speed limits, minimizing speed dispersion (difference between speeds at which different drivers travel) while using cameras to track the 15% of drivers who willfully violate the speed limit and
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create hazardous driving conditions, is certainly recommended. (Recall that the optimum recommended speed limit is at or below which 85% of all drivers travel a policy also supported by NMA.) Even on this score, however, the results are confounding, if we consider the Australian experience. http://www.thenewspaper.com/news/28/2840.asp Up until 2007, there was no speed limit in the Northern Territory of Australia. Imposing a speed limit 130 kmph (80 mph) on some areas, and 110 kmph (68 mph) in some others, actually increased the number of deaths. The death toll in 2006, when there was no speed limit, in this region was 44 and went up to 75 in 2009, see data table in link below. http://www.thenewspaper.com/rlc/docs/2009/au-ntroadtoll.pdf Furthermore, it appears that installation of cameras to enforce speed limits has proved to be a hazardous distraction to drivers and deaths actually began to skyrocket between 2005 and 2007 in all Australian roadways. The main purpose here is to sound a cautionary note amid renewed attempts in many states across the US to increase the speed limits on our highways by calling attention to the historical facts regarding the epidemic levels of highway traffic fatalities that engaged our national attention in the fateful year of 1966. The graphical representation of the traffic fatality data, in Figures 1 to 5, tells its own story. Indeed, it would be tragic if highway-accident-related fatalities were to start increasing once again and reach the historically high level that was last seen in 1972, the year before the Arab oil embargo of 1973.

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Conclusions
1. The graphical representation of the highway fatality data, and the brief summary of the historical facts of traffic safety legislation, suggest that recent attempts to increase the speed limits by various states (notably Texas) may be misguided. The distinct peak in the highway fatalities observed in these graphs is highly alarming. This appears to be related to the enactment of the National Maximum Speed Limit (NSML) in 1974, following the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Although NSML was motivated by a desire to reduce gasoline consumption, an unintended benefit might have been a dramatic reduction in fatalities. The fundamental reasons for the peak in the fatalities-VMT curve must be examined carefully without political posturing. 2. The widely used fatality rate, fatalities per 100 M vehicle miles traveled, has been declining since 1921, the first year for which a fatality rate could be computed, and has now reached a historical low. The absolute number of fatalities, on the other hand, was increasing in the 1950s and 1960s, at an alarming rate and the public outcry that ensued led to the highly publicized Congressional hearing of 1966 and the subsequent traffic safety legislations. The fatality rate has been decreasing, even in the most recent 15-year period (1994-2009), again with increasing fatalities, although less dramatically. Thus, it appears that fatality rate calculation based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) might not be a reliable indicator of the underlying dynamics in the fatality trends. 3. More detailed compilation of number of fatalities and the number of fatal crashes, within each speed limit segment, is required to better understand the effect of increasing speed limits on highway fatalities (and also fatality rates). Such data is already available and is being compiled at the local city and county levels in all jurisdictions and only needs to be reorganized to highlight the effect of (posted) speed limits on the number of crashes and fatalities. This will require some minor rewriting and revisions to the chapters named Crashes and States in the annual NHTSA reports.
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Analysis of the fatalities-crashes data, for several years, with various speed limits, will be more revealing and meaningful than the current fatality rates analysis and will be discussed separately in a follow up report. 4. One should not be lulled by the fact that vehicles of the 21st century are now equipped with advanced safety features not available in the 1950s and the 1960s. In spite of these safety features, the laws of physics dictate that the higher the speed, the higher kinetic energy of the colliding objects and hence the greater the risk, indeed near certainty, of fatalities in a higher speed collision compared to a lower speed one. 5. The higher the speed at which the vehicle that is involved in a crash is traveling, the higher the kinetic energy that must be absorbed and/or dissipated without affecting the occupant(s) to avoid serious injuries and/or death. This was true in the 1950s and the 1960s and will continue to be true in the 21st century as well.

Speed Kills for this just reason! 6. It appears that higher fuel economies and reduced highway fatalities were the twin societal benefits of 55 mph adopted after 1973! If so, the current attempts to increase the speed limits appear to be in conflict with other important societal objectives.

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Table 1: Annual US Street & Highway Fatalities from 1957

Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Vehicle Rate/100M Fatalities Miles Vehicle (millions) Miles 38,702 36,981 37,910 38,137 38,091 40,804 43,564 47,700 49,163 51,524 51,559 53,831 55,032 53,672 53,761 55,704 55,113 46,078 45,500 45,523 47,878 50,331 51,103 51,091 49,301 43,945 42,589 44,257 43,795 646,915 664,915 700,478 718,845 737,535 766,852 805,423 846,500 887,640 927,915 965,132 1,019,726 1,066,108 1,114,098 1,183,524 1,264,614 1,316,207 1,282,790 1,330,074 1,402,380 1,467,027 1,544,704 1,529,133 1,527,295 1,552,803 1,595,010 1,652,788 1,720,269 1,774,179 5.98 5.56 5.41 5.31 5.16 5.32 5.41 5.63 5.54 5.55 5.34 5.28 5.16 4.82 4.54 4.40 4.19 3.59 3.42 3.25 3.26 3.26 3.34 3.35 3.17 2.76 2.58 2.57 2.47 Page 36 of 45

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

46,056 46,385 47,093 45,555 44,529 41,162 39,235 40,115 40,676 41,798 41,907 41,967

1,835,000 1,921,000 2,026,000 2,107,040 2,147,501 2,172,214 2,239,828 2,296,585 2,359,984 2,422,696 2,485,848 2,560,373

2.51 2.41 2.32 2.16 2.07 1.89 1.75 1.75 1.72 1.73 1.69 1.64

Data from Federal Highway Administration

Source: http://www.publicpurpose.com/hwy-fatal57+.htm

Telephone:

+1.618.632.8507

- Facsimile: +1.618.632.8538

WENDELL COX CONSULTANCY

P. O. Box 841 - Belleville, IL 62269 USA

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Fatality data for 1921-1982 compiled by NHTSA Year VMT (Millions)

55,027 67,697 84,,995 104,838 122,346 140,735 158,453 172,856 197,720 206,320 216,151 200,517 200,642 215,563 228,568 252,128 270,110 271,177 285,402 302,188 333,612 268,224 208,192 212,713 250,173 340,880 370,894 397,957 424,461 458,246 491,093 513,581

VMT (Billions)
55.03 67.70 85.00 104.84 122.35 140.74 158.45 172.86 197.72 206.32 216.15 200.52 200.64 215.56 228.57 252.13 270.11 271.18 285.40 302.19 333.61 268.22 208.19 212.71 250.17 340.88 370.89 397.96 424.46 458.25 491.09 513.58

Fatalities

Fatality rate per 100 M VMT

24.1 21.9 21.0 17.6 17.0 15.8 15.4 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.8 14.0 14.8 15.9 15.1 14.3 14.0 11.5 10.8 10.9 11.4 10.1 10.9 10.9 10.7 9.4 8.4 7.7 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0
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1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952

13,253 14,859 17,870 18,400 20,771 22,194 24,470 26,557 29,592 31,204 31,963 27,979 29,746 34,240 34,494 36,126 37,819 31,083 30,895 32,914 38,142 27,007 22,727 23,165 26,785 31,874 31,193 30,775 30,246 33,186 35,309 36,088

1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

544,433 561,963 605,646 627,843 647,004 664,653 700,480 718,762 737,421 766,734 805,249 846,298 887,812 925,899 964,005 1,015,869 1,061,791 1,109,724 1,178,811 1,259,786 1,313,110 1,280,544 1,327,664 1,402,380 1,467,027 1,544,704 1,529,133 1,527,295 1,555,308 1,595,010

544.43 561.96 605.65 627.84 647.00 664.65 700.48 718.76 737.42 766.73 805.25 846.30 887.81 925.90 964.01 1015.87 1061.79 1109.72 1178.81 1259.79 1313.11 1280.54 1327.66 1402.38 1467.03 1544.70 1529.13 1527.30 1555.31 1595.01

36,190 33,890 36,688 37,965 36,932 35,331 36,223 36,399 36,285 38,980 41,723 45,645 47,089 50,894 50,724 52,725 53,543 52,627 52,542 54,589 54,052 45,196 44,525 45,523 47,878 50,331 51,093 51,091 49,301 43,945

6.6 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.8

Source: Analysis of Significant Decline in Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2008 http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811346.pdf, see Table A1, page 31 http://www.cid.army.mil/documents/Safety/Current%20Focus/Speeding%20R elated%20Fatal%20Motor%20Vehicle%20Traffic%20Crashes.pdf

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Acknowledgements
The author is grateful for thoughtful comments provided by friends and colleagues with whom this document was shared, via email, prior to it being uploaded as a publicly available document for wider dissemination and study. The comments offered by Prof. Subra Ganesan of Oakland University, Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, are reproduced, with permission, in their entirety.

About the author

The author obtained his Masters (S. M.) and Doctoral (Sc. D.) degrees in Materials Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA. He then spent his entire professional career at leading US research institutions (MIT, NASA, Case Western Reserve University, and General Motors R & D Center, in Warren, MI). He holds four patents in advanced materials processing, has co-authored two books, and has published several scientific papers in leading peer-reviewed international journals. His expertise includes developing simple mathematical models to explain the behavior of complex systems. He can be reached by email at vlaxmanan@hotmail.com

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Please Buckle Up
http://www.lakecountypublichealth.org/index.php/buckle-up-montana/ Public Awareness

Montanas likeliest crash fatality scenario: A Pickup, A Rural road, And Seat belts that arent used.

Respect the Cage Exhibit The Department of Transportation hopes that showing the reality of the crash will reduce traffic fatalities. A crushed car, crash dummies, and a sobering message all part of the Respect The Cage exhibit that is traveling across Montana. The exhibit, sponsored by the Montana Department of Transportation, stopped in Ronan on November 6th and is aimed at raising awareness about the importance of wearing seat belts.

The car in the exhibit was in an actual wreck many years ago; the passenger in the vehicle died because he was not wearing a seat belt; the driver, who was wearing his seat belt, survived.

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Occupants of pickups are less likely to wear seat belts and pickups are more likely to roll over than passenger cars.

Seat belts reduce the risk of death by 60 percent in pickups and SUVs. In Montana, from 2006-2008, 81% of those killed in a crash while riding in a pickup were not wearing seat belts. In Montana, pickups make up 40.1% of the vehicle population.

For more information on Respect the Cage, click here.

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Appendix 1 Lack of seat belts leading cause of Louisiana highway deaths

12:51 AM, May. 28, 2011 | Written by: Adam Duvernay

Crashes involving unbuckled motorists were the leading cause of highway fatalities in Louisiana last year and cost $988.8 million, according to recent reports. The Louisiana Highway Safety Commission reported 59 percent of vehicle occupants killed in Louisiana crashes last year about one in four weren't wearing seat belts. http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20110528/NEWS01/105280354/Lack-seatbelts-leading-cause-La-highway-deaths?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Crash Stats
Published by NHTSAs National Center for Statistics and Analysis 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590

DOT HS 811 451

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2010

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811451.pdf Summary A statistical projection of traffic fatalities in 2010 shows that an estimated 32,788 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 3 percent as compared to the 33,808 fatalities in 2009, as shown in Table 1. If these projections are realized, fatalities will be lowest on record (since 1949).

Traffic Safety Facts Overview: 2009 Data

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811392.pdf In 2009, 33,808 people were killed in the estimated 5,505,000 police-reported motor vehicle traffic crashes; 2,217,000 people were injured; and 3,957,000 crashes involved property damage only. Compared to 2008, this is a 10percent decrease in the number of fatalities, and a 5-percent decrease in the

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number of police-reported motor vehicle traffic crashes, people injured, and crashes involving property damage. An average of 93 people died each day in motor vehicle crashes in 2009 an average of one every 16 minutes.

Traffic Safety Facts Overview: 2008 Data

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811162.pdf In 2008, 37,261 people were killed in the estimated 5,811,000 police-reported motor vehicle traffic crashes; 2,346,000 people were injured; and 4,146,000 crashes involved property damage only. ****************************************************************************************

Some comments and Feedback

The following comments were received from Prof. Ganesan, after his review of the first draft of this document. It was subsequently revised, thanks to this input, to address some of the very important issues raised here. Dear Laxman: The write up is not enough. You are emphasizing that the speed limit reduces the fatal accidents (comparing 1966 to 2000 accident numbers). Can you also add a few sentences why the number is decreasing from 1980 to 2000 values? (May be due to better design of vehicles?) Can you say anything about the fuel consumption with the speed for any typical vehicle in 2011 or 2010 (do not consider the fatalities issue). Probably a speed between 55 and 60 mph gives a better mileage. If so, this is a compelling reason to keep the speed limit low. But, cars probably can be tuned to give better mileage at any high speed also.

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Weather is also a major factor in fatal accidents. Speed limit may be kept low during winter and kept higher in summer. Give your comments on this too. Driver distractions can cause more accidents. Now cars have many multimedia and internet features. Automatic collision avoidance systems and sensors on the sides can detect vehicles in the front and neighboring lanes and it can automatically decrease speed even if the driver speeds at super high speeds. Give some comments on this too. There is also Vehicle to Vehicle communications, vehicle to infrastructure communications and they can avoid collisions and accidents. Technology has changed from 1966. I cannot agree with you on the speed limit without any discussion on the above and other factors, Have a great day! Subra Ganesan Professor Subramaniam Ganesan Director, Real Time & DSP Lab., Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, 2200 Squirrel Road, Dodge Hall, Room 105 Oakland University, Rochester, MI 48309, USA. Phone: 248 370 2206; Fax: 248 370 4633 www.secs.oakland.edu/~ganesan IEEE Distinguished Visiting Speaker (2005-2009); Coordinator. IEEE SEM CS chapter Chair, Region 4 and CS Society Board member SAE, ASEE, ACM member

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