You are on page 1of 4

Market Report

U.S.D.A. World Market Price:


World Market Price Value Factors
Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain Brokens To be Issued June 22 8:30am EDT

June 22, 2011


1 Year Ago 06/23/10
14.14 13.87 13.87 9.74

This week 06/22/11

Last week 06/15/11


18.81 18.49 18.49 13.31

LDP
00.00 00.00 00.00 -

2010 Loan Factors


9.91 9.65 9.65 7.01

Yield WMP Loan Difference

WMP and Loan Rates 10 crop L/G M/G


52.78/14.31 11.83 6.23 (5.60)

61.03/8.69 12.44 6.50 (5.94)

Posting:

Southern U.S. - Long Grain

(July Shipment)

Abbreviation
#2/4% #2/4% #2/4% #2/4% #2/4% #3/15 #3/15 #2/4/75 #1/4/88 #1/4 Parb #1/4 Parb #2 55/70 #4/20/hm #5/20/wm

Quote
$24.00 $24.00 $24.50 $580.00 $25.50 $23.00 $570.00 no quote no quote no quote $575.00 $300.00 $22.00 $21.50

Basis
per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill per mt sacked containerized FOB Mill per mt sacked containerized Oakland per mt sacked in 30kg bags FOB vessel per mt in totes containerized Oakland per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
www.creedrice.com

U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs) U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED

Southern U.S. - Medium Grain


U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2/4% no quote #2 58/69 no quote Pkg. Parb. Pkg. L/G Pkg. L/G Pkg. Br. Pkg. M/G #1/4 #1/4 #1/7% #3 Brown #1 58/69 $28.00 $22.50 $25.00 $28.00 $35.00 $835.00 $875.00 $875.00 $810.00 $550.00

Southern U.S. - Package Quality


Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken (0.8% damage) Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken

California - Medium Grain


U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) U.S. #1 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield

California - Package Quality


Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37-$38 Flour Qlty $15.75 contracts $13.75 Flour Qlty $19.00 contracts $14.00
June 22, 2011 - Page 1 of 4

U.S. South Brokens:


Flour Quality brokens Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled)

U.S. California Brokens:


Flour Quality brokens Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers
Copyright 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved

Far East Report


SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS
In Thailand, prices are up sharply again this past week, amid short covering by internationals (heavy vessel loadings) and spec buying by locals who feel the imminent change in government as of the July elections (RED or Pheu Thai party) will usher in higher paddy values account the intervention program that has been a major plank of their platform. It now seems to be a given that the sitting party in power will be overthrown and rice millers and traders alike are acting on that forecast. Paddy prices are up 3% over the past week. Rest assured, this is a key topic of discussion among the attendees at the Thai rice millers conference being held this week. Total vessel loadings for the month of May were double compared to the same period in 2010 (i.e. 1.3 MMT). The government now projects total 2011 exports to reach 9.5-10 MMT. Of late, Bangladesh and Iraq have been the big receivers. 100%B is quoted at $530-540 per mt FOB Bangkok; 5% is $510520, and parboil is on par with white rice. Brokens, both fragrant and white remain quite firm at $480 and $425 respectively. The undertone of the market is quite firm, albeit somewhat superficial in nature account what the new intervention program will mean for local paddy values...needless to say, the growers love it and that is why the RED party will likely gain power. It remains to be seen if these subsidized paddy prices will translate into offshore values...I think not. My view is that the program will be limited in nature, as the government will not have the appetite for the ensuing cost and debt necessarily associated with this kind of program. However, I have little doubt that it will have at least short term ramifications and prop up the market...to the dismay of local exporters, internationals, and offshore receivers as well...we shall see. In Vietnam, the market is basically unchanged, as prices are mostly sideways to up ever so slightly in sympathy for what is going on in Thailand. However, now there is a spread of over $70 per mt between the two origins. This should slow demand for Thai rice as internationals opt for the much cheaper Viet rice. A case in point to look for is Iraq. I also anticipate that the vast majority of The Philippine business will go to Vietnam, as will Indonesia, if and when, they come back in the market (Q4). The West African market will likely remain primarily a Viet domain as well. The Thai market is going to have some bumps in the road as they forge ahead with the new government, much to the delight of the Vietnamese. Perhaps the main reason we have not seen a sharper increase in Viet prices is the soon to be arrival of the Summer/Autumn crop and fresh supplies. Exporters seem to be playing it close to the vest. The undertone of this market is mostly steady, however I do look for slightly higher prices later in the year (i.e. $475-500 for 5%), provided Indonesia comes back into the market for 1 MMT or so. Thailand Exports Jan. 1 - June 9, 2011: 5,533,691 mt Jan. 1 - June 9, 2010: 3,613,464 mt Jan. 1 - June 7, 2009: 3,766,798 mt

INDIA, PAKISTAN and BANGLADESH


In India, the rhetoric continues to heat up about whether or not to reinstate exports of IRRI rice by lifting the ban on non-Basmati rice. Not only are the growers, millers and traders calling for it, but some key government officials in the Agriculture and Commerce ministries. Governments stocks of wheat and rice are at a record near 60 MMT. With a projected bumper monsoon crop (102 MMT) ahead of them, serious consideration is being giving to the idea of at least a partial lifting. My best guess is that the government will continue to act on the side of caution and not make any kind of demonstrative move until the effect of the monsoon season has been completely determined and the harvest begins (Oct). In Pakistan, the market remains firm amid relatively heavy shipments to regional markets in the middle east, along with border trade with Iran, and resulting tight IRRI stocks. Basmati exports are quite healthy as well. IRRI-6 5% is quoted at $495-500 per mt FOB Karachi; 25% is $450-455. Bangladesh continues to be a major player on the demand side of the equation, buying 50,000 mt of Thai Parboil 15% at their most recent tender at $507 CNF (see last weeks report). This region could become very interesting as we near the fourth quarter of 2011.

OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand
100%B 5% 10% 15% 25% Brokens
Parb. 100B sorted

Vietnam
$535.00 $520.00 $515.00 $510.00 $485.00 $425.00 $535.00 $965.00 $480.00 10% 15% 25% Brokens MEP-5% MEP-25% $460.00 $450.00 $430.00 $410.00 $490.00 $470.00 5% $465.00

India
Export ban, MEP $900 5% 10% 15% 25% Parb. 5% Var. 1121 Basmati Traditional Pusa $1800 $1300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $1350

Pakistan
5% 10% 15% 25% Parb 5%
Parb 15%*

Uru.
$520.00 $510.00 no quote

Arg.
$520.00 $510.00 no quote

Brazil

$500.00 no quote no quote $450.00 $530.00 $515.00 no quote $1300.00

$510.00 Brokens $410.00 Paddy $290.00


www.creedrice.com

Brokens Basmati S. Kernal

Thai Hom Mali Frag. Brokens

All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port
Copyright 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved

*Bangladesh Specs.

June 22, 2011 - Page 2 of 4

CBOT Rough Rice Futures (06/20/11 Volume: 1,729 Open Interest: 18,591)
Contract Month 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 12 Jan 12 Mar 12 May Tuesdays Close Price $13.815 $14.850 $15.170 $15.480 $15.790 $16.085 Net Change From Monday UP UP UP UP UP EVEN 0.005 0.010 0.010 0.020 0.010 0.000 Last Report DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN 0.520 0.590 0.605 0.615 0.620 0.625 Prices One Year Ago 06/29/10 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 11 Jan 11 Mar 11 May $9.750 $9.990 $10.235 $10.515 $10.810 $11.100

U.S. Paddy Market Report


Texas - The market continues to be quiet as there is very little old crop remaining. Buyers ideas for L/G range $5.00-$6.00 per cwt over loan depending on variety. The drought in Texas continues. Louisiana - No change. Like Texas, there is not much old crop remaining. Buyers ideas for long grain old crop and new crop are $12.00 per cwt FOB farm. Mid South - The market is basically unchanged. Buyers price ideas range from $11.50 per cwt loaded barge while growers are asking for at least $11.11 per cwt FOB farm. USDA will release their acreage report next week. California - Old crop bids are $13.00 per cwt over loan while sellers are looking for at least $14.00. New crop traded Tuesday at $14.00$14.25 per cwt over loan

Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop) Texas Long grain Med Grain
$11.50-13.00

Louisianna $12.00
14.50 new crop

Mid-South $10.75b/11.25a $14.50b/$15.00a

California *
$20.50

L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1) * - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.

U.S. Report
U.S. GULF, MERCOSUR, & FUTURES
The main focus on the market is twofold...the reduction in acreage due to the flooding and the reaction of the board in congruence with same. Following a dramatic rise in CBOT values over the past couple of months, futures are down $1.50 over the past couple of weeks. It seems as though the funds have gotten their fill of what they perceived as bullish fundamentals and have now lost their appetite for same and taking money off the table. The cash market remains in the doldrums, amid very little fresh demand. The most transparent omission has been Iraq, who last bought U.S. rice back in August 2010. And, I see no change in that situation in the near future (prior to new crop). I look for Uruguay, Argentina, and Vietnam to be the most likely contenders for the Iraq tenders to be, the next likely coming at the end of June or early July. In the meantime, cash offers from mills had firmed in sympathy with the escalation in futures values, but have reverted somewhat since the market fall off. #2-4% is quoted at levels that reflect $540-550 per mt bagged FOB or $525-530 basis bulk. The paddy is in total disarray as the river issues has caused extensive delays, and the former rise in futures has caused growers to hold. Long grain paddy barges are bid/asked at levels that reflect $275/$300 per mt bulk FOB NOLA respectively. The RMA convention convenes next week, so there will be no report on June 29. Two topics almost certain to get a lot of attention, the fear of what another hot summer with hot nights during the flowering stage could do to the crop, and the need for developing new varieties that complement the needs of buyers, here and abroad.
Copyright 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved June 22, 2011 - Page 3 of 4

The undertone of the market, from where I sit, is soft.

CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA & THE MED


The biggest news in the market are the floating of three new tenders, one for Japan for 13,000 mt each Califorina/ Australia closing on Friday, and two tenders with Korea (11,000 mt and 21,000 mt) which will draw competition from China. Awards will be made official sometime next week. Even though there will be no report next week, RiceOnline will update these results in the hot topics segment when available. In the meantime, the Libyan shipments have now been completed as the mills wind down the tail end of the season on summer PG&E limited energy hours. Prices are mostly sideways to slightly softer on the milled side of the equation, and the paddy market is definitively softer. What were once strong bids at $14.50 per cwt. over loan is now subtle interest around $13.00. Growers are holding steadfast at $14.50-15.00. As aforementioned in our report months ago when we saw Australia was going to reap a decent harvest, their presence is being felt in their traditional markets, including the MED, in particular Jordan. They are also quite visible on the Japanese MA tenders. Although the undertone of the market may be a little softer, the overall outlook for global medium grain prices remains positive.
www.creedrice.com

Upcoming Tenders:
June 23 KCCO Inv. 2000000245 (amendment 1) tender to buy
3980mt: (3500mt of #2/4% L/G Hard milled in 25kilo bags, 480mt of #2/7% L/G Well Milled in 50kilo bags, for inland plant shipment July 16 - Aug. 15)

USDA Export Sales Highlights


(June 3-9, 2011)

Sales
Net sales of 13,200 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 88 percent from the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for: Mexico (6,300 MT) Canada (3,800 MT) Nicaragua (500 MT) Honduras (300 MT) Net sales of 5,900 MT for delivery in 2011/2012 were reported for: Leeward and Windward Islands (6,000 MT) Decreases were reported for: Mexico (100 MT)

June 24 Japan MMA tender to buy 13,000mt California and 13,000mt Australian medium grain.

Tenders Results:
June 21 Korea tender to buy:
11,000mt of Medium/Short Grain Brown rice, #3 or better, global origin 2010-2011 crop, custom cleared Aug-Oct. 5000mt of Indica Long grain brown, #3 or better, global origin, 2011 crop, customs cleared July-Sept. 13,000mt non-glutinous Long grain brown, #3 or better, Thai origin, 2011 crop, customs cleared July-Sept. 21,000mt nonglutinous medium grain, #3 or better, global origin 2010-2011 crop, customs cleared Aug-Oct. 5000mt of non-glutinous medium grain brown, #3 or better, Australian origin, 2011 crop, customs cleared July-Sept. Results pending.

Exports
Exports of 47,800 MT were down 39 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were: Mexico Haiti Saudi Arabia South Korea Canada (25,700 MT) (7,300 MT) (4,300 MT) (2,900 MT) (2,200 MT)

Source: USDA

Upcoming USDA reports: Please note:


June 29

Upcoming Events:
June 26-30, 2011 USA Rice Millers Association Convention For more info go to: www.usarice.com July 25-27, 2011 Rice Africa Outlook, Durban South Africa For more info: www.riceafrica.agraevents.com Feb. 9-11, 2012 ISRMAX India Conference 2012 For more info go to: www.isrmaxindia.com

June 30 USDA Rice Acreage report 8:30am EDT, monitor www.RiceOnline.com for the report.
No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued June 29 account our attendance at the RMA convention.

USDA Crop Progress


State

Rice Emerged - Selected States: Week Ending June 19, 2011


Week Ending Juen 19, 2010 June 12, 2011 (percent) Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri Texas 6 States - Represents zero. 100 79 100 100 100 97 97 96 75 100 100 97 84 93 100 85 100 100 100 85 97 99 84 100 100 100 99 97 Previous Week Previous Year

Rice Condition - Selected States: Week Ending June 19, 2011


2006-2010 Average Very Poor 5 4 2 7 4 2 Poor 11 7 2 7 2 7 7 4 (percent) Fair 36 15 31 34 27 47 32 33 21 Good 38 15 39 48 48 33 35 36 53 Excellent 10 70 19 16 16 11 22 22 22

June 19, 2011

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (very limited supply in the South)
Texas Bran: Mill Feed: Ground Hulls: Unground Hulls: $130 $50 $7-10 $7-10 Louisiana $135 $60 $5-$7 $5-$7 Arkansas $150 $65 $15 $15 California $150-$155 $3-$5

Creed Rice Co. Inc. Ph 1.713.782.3260

800 Wilcrest Suite 200

Houston, Texas 77042

USA

Fax 1.713.782.4671 www.creedrice.com

email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net


www.creedrice.com

Brokers Consultants Market Reports Arbitrators


Copyright 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved June 22, 2011 - Page 4 of 4

You might also like