Indian Retail & Gems and Jewellery Industry CYG 01jan11 17p

QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES (October December 2010)
INDIAN RETAIL & GEMS AND JEWELLERY INDUSTRY
January 2011
Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd.

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QPAC-Indian Retail & Gems and Jewellery Industry- October - December 2010
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................3 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................4 INTER-FIRM COMPARISON..................................................................................................7 COMPANY ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................................11 1. Bata India Ltd ...................................................................................................................11 2. Classic Diamond (India) Ltd..............................................................................................11 3. Shrenuj & Co. Ltd. ............................................................................................................12 4. Suashish Diamond Ltd. .....................................................................................................12 5. Provogue (India) Ltd. ........................................................................................................13 6. Store One Retail India .......................................................................................................13 7. Shopper Stop Ltd. .............................................................................................................14 8. Gitanjali Gems Ltd............................................................................................................14 9. Trent Ltd...........................................................................................................................15 10. Asian Star Co. Ltd. ..........................................................................................................15 11. Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd.............................................................................................16 12. Rajesh Exports Ltd..........................................................................................................16 SOURCES & METHODS FOR COMPANY PROJECTIONS...............................................17
Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Indian retail market is the fifth largest retail destination globally, and the most attractive emerging market for investment. The market is growing at 30% annually, with the organized segment registering above average growth of 30% and continues to be one of the most attractive countries for global retailers. Indias retail sector is wearing new clothes and with a three-year compounded annual growth rate of 46.64%, retail is the fastest growing sector in the Indian economy. Traditional markets are making way for new formats such as departmental stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets and specialty stores. Western-style malls have begun appearing in metros and second-rung cities alike, introducing the Indian consumer to an unparalleled shopping experience. The Government of India is planning to allow multi-brand retail to the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) showing its resolve to open up the sector to international chains. Indias regulatory patchwork frequently impedes the efficient flow of products and needs to be coordinated across States and local jurisdictions. The increase in tax slabs will help to increase the disposable income at the hands of people, which should increase consumption demand and consequent footfalls. However, increase of excise duty from 8-10% would result in an increase in input costs of various products. Clarity on FDI norms is expected to come about in some time, giving more funding options to retailers. A public sector tentative outlay for the 11th Plan is Rs5547.66 billion at constant price. This consists of Rs3433.87 billion for the central sector and Rs2113.79 billion for the state sector India has a large untapped resources (15,000MW is untapped in hydro sector; 4500MW in wind sector; 3.1 trillion units of energy in the solar energy sector.) This gives a huge opportunity for growth in the power sector. Concern about global warming and introduction of limits on emission of CO2 will have a profound effect on the use of coal for power generation. In consequence, nuclear power has its best chance of a revival for generation and renewable energy is gaining ground. Nuclear energy, which currently accounts for less than 3% of the domestic capacity, constitutes an important component of Indias energy mix in the future. After the NSG waiver and Indo-US nuclear deal, it is estimated that with international cooperation, nuclear power in India could increase fifteen fold to over 60,000MW by 2030 from the present 4120MW. CAIRO: India will implement a pilot project on renewable energy in Egypt to enhance bilateral cooperation and encourage the Indian private sector to participate in developing wind and solar energy sectors in the country.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION The Indian retail industry is the fifth largest in the world. Though initially, it was mostly unorganized, however, with change of tastes and preferences of the consumers, it has become more popular with organized sectors also. With growing market demand, the industry is expected to grow at a pace of 20-22% annually.
The retail sector would grow around 1% with revenue of Rs94584m for the quarter OND10 against OND09. The sector would likely jump in terms of growth in the operating profit of 13% estimated to be around Rs5781.15m and net profit Rs3193.49m in OND10 compared with OND09 quarter. Industry Aggregate (Rs in million) Particulars Net Sales Change EBITDA Change Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT Tax Effective tax rate Reported PAT Change Industry Market Cap(in bn)
EBITDA and OPM
OND 10 (E) 94584.28 1% 5991.71 17% 682.27 998.21 324.39 3802.00 1153.79 30% 2648.21 24% 194.09
7.00
Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research
Rs m
Note: Following companies are considered for calculation: Future Group, Trent, Provogue and Bata India Segmental Performance Food and grocery retail: The organized retail segment is gaining momentum with huge demand for food and grocery items in the country. India has witnessed an unprecedented growth in retail sector in the recent past. An economic growth of 8% coupled with favorable demography has led to a consumption boom in the country.
95000
6200
6.50 OPM (RHS) % 6.00 5.50 5.00 OND 09 (A) OND 10 (E) 3.00 2.50 2.00 OND 09 (A) OND 10 (E) % EBDITA (LHS)
5600
5000
Sales Performance
Net Sales (LHS)
1.5 2500
Net Profit and NPM
% change (RHS)
Rs m
PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS)
93000 Rs m
1.3 2300
91000 OND 09 (A) OND 10 (E)

1.0 2100
It has grown by 20-25% CAGR in the last 5 years. Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are expected to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 145 per cent to reach US$ 21.35 billion by 2014. Key Developments Govt. has permitted FDI to the extent of 100% in cash for wholesale format & 51% for trade of single brand products. The Indian retail industry is currently estimated to be USD350bn and organised retailing forms only 5%, which is projected to increase to 14-18% by 2015. Cost as a % of Sales Cost Structure OND 10 (E) OND 09 (A) There would be no variation in staff cost. Stock in trade 2.28 -2.07 However, other expenditure for most of the Raw materials 68.83 66.64 players in this sector, brought some changes in -0.10 0.21 strategies will have some increment. The raw Processing Charge 1.62 1.93 material cost is estimated to increase by 104 Staff cost Other expenditure 6.41 7.50 basis points in OND10, compared with 0.72 0.86 OND09. Tax as a percentage of sales is Depreciation 1.06 1.95 estimated to witness very minimal and to Interest Charges 1.22 0.78 increase by 75 basis point. Interest is estimated Tax Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research to decreased by 58 basis point in OND10, as compared to corresponding quarter of the previous year. The high growth projected in domestic retail demand will be fuelled by: 1. The migration of population to higher income segments with increasing per capita Incomes 2. An increase in urbanization 3. Changing consumer attitudes especially the increasing use of credit cards 4. The growth of the population in the 20 to 49 years age band There is retail opportunity in most product categories and for all types of formats 1. 2. 3. Food and Grocery: The largest category; largely unorganised today Home Improvement and Consumer Durables: Over 20% p.a. CAGR estimated in the next 10 years Apparel and Eating Out: 13 per cent p.a. CAGR projected over 10 years%Opportunities for investment in supply chain infrastructure: Cold chain and logistics India also has significant potential to emerge as a sourcing base for a wide variety of goods for international retail companies 4. Many international retailers including Wal-Mart, GAP, JC Penney etc. are already procuring from India Challenges presently involved in Retail Sector The industry is facing a severe shortage of talented professionals, especially at the middle- management level. Most Indian retail players are under serious pressure to make their supply chains more efficient in order to deliver the levels of quality and service that consumers are demanding. Long intermediation chains would increase the costs by 15 per cent. Lack of adequate infrastructure with respect to roads, electricity, cold chains and ports has further led to the impediment of a pan-India network of suppliers. Due to these constraints, retail chains have to resort to multiple vendors for their requirements, thereby, raising costs and prices. The available talent pool does not back retail sector as the sector has only recently emerged from its nascent phase. Further, retailing is yet to become a preferred career option for most of Indias educated class that has chosen sectors like IT, BPO and financial services.
Even though the Government is attempting to implement a uniform value-added tax across states, the system is currently plagued with differential tax rates for various states leading to increased costs and complexities in establishing an effective distribution network. Stringent labor laws govern the number of hours worked and minimum wages to be paid leading to limited flexibility of operations and employment of part-time employees. Further, multiple clearances are required by the same company for opening new outlets adding to the costs incurred and time taken to expand presence in the country. The retail sector does not have industry status yet making it difficult for retailers to raise finance from banks to fund their expansion plans. FDI Policy in the Retail Sector India has kept the retail sector largely closed to outsiders to safeguard the livelihood of nearly 15 million small storeowners and only allows 51 per cent foreign investment in singlebrand retail with prior Government permission. FDI is also allowed in the wholesale business. Single-brand retailers such as Louis Vuitton, Fendi, LLadro, Nike and Toyota can operate now on their own. Metro is already operating through the cash-and-carry wholesale mode. The policy makers continue to explore areas where FDI can be invited without hurting the interest of local retail community. Government is considering opening up of the retail trading for select sectors such as electronic goods, stationery, sports goods, and building equipment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail space, specialized goods retailing like sports goods, electronics and stationery is also being contemplated. The Government has to walk a tightrope to ensure a `level playing field' for everyone. The policy of permitting 51 per cent FDI in single-brand product retailing has led to the entry of only a few global brands such as Nike (footwear), Louis Vuitton (shoes, travel accessories, watches, ties, textiles ready-to wear), Lladro (porcelain goods), Fendi (luxury products), Damro (knock-down furniture), Argenterie Greggio (silverware, cutlery, traditional home accessories and gift items) and Toyota (retail trading of cars), into retail trading. A 12-billion euro French luxury industry is also eyeing the domestic luxury segment to make a presence through retailing directly.
INTER-FIRM COMPARISON
Operational Performance
Provogue is leading in sales growth; Provogue sales growth in sales was estimated to increase by 39% from OND10 comparing to OND 09, followed by Shopper Stop and Asian Star with 38% growth in the same period. Rajesh Exports and Suashish were registered lowest growth of 2% and 5% respectively. Store one was estimated in negative growth of nearly 70% followed by Pantaloon by 38% in the retail sector. Net Sales OND 09 Vs OND 10 (Rs in million) OND 09 OND 10 Growth % Bata 2886.45 3269.10 13% Store One 40.92 12.10 -70% Pantaloon 19128.40 11897.88 -38% Provogue 1231.09 1710.94 39% Shopper Stop 3826.01 5226.98 37% Trent 1546.70 2051.52 33% Asian Star 3152.08 4360.18 38% Classic Diamond 1669.48 2111.49 26% Gitanjali Gem 8760.08 10895.55 24% Rajesh Exports 45321.72 46261.99 2% Shrenuj 2734.17 3394.34 24% Suashish 3221.43 3392.22 5%
Financial Performance
Net Sales OPM NPM
Financial Performance OND 09 Vs OND 10 Bata Store One Pantaloon 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 2886.45 3269.10 40.92 12.1 19128.40 11897.88 0.16 0.16 -1.72 -1.00 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.09 -2.81 -1.87 0.03 0.04
Net Sales OPM NPM
Financial Performance - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Provogue Shoppers Stop Trent 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 1231.09 1710.94 3826.01 5226.98 1546.70 2051.52 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.15
Net Sales OPM NPM
Financial Performance - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Rajesh Exports Shrenuj Suashish 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 45321.72 46261.99 2734.17 3394.34 3221.43 3392.22 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03
Financial Performance - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Asian Star Classic Diamond Gitangali 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 09(A) 10(E) 3152.08 4360.18 1669.48 2111.49 8760.08 10895.55 0.04 0.31 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.07
Net Sales OPM NPM
Trent is expected to have the highest Net Profit Margin Trent is expected to register the highest margin in net profit as compared to its peers. Some of the Retail companies are expected to have low profit margin as compared to sales. However, Bata Provogue will contribute a positive profit margin during the period JFM10. From ordinary retail part, Asian star and Gitanjali both have strong brand name and both have strong domestic presence Asian star and Gitanjali are expected to do well in terms of operation and net profit margins. Other companies like Srenuj, Suashish and Rajesh Exports are expected to register low profit margins as compared to its peers. Cost Structure Cost Structure (as Percentage of Net sales) - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Company Provogue Shopper Stop Trent Ltd. Year 09 10 09 10 09 10 Stock in trade -4.14 1.77 -0.54 0.00 -6.54 5.32 Raw materials 46.41 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.33 Processing Charge 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Traded goods 18.60 28.65 60.04 65.00 50.72 35.48 Staff cost 3.88 3.00 5.34 6.00 6.50 6.32 Other expenditure 23.93 15.00 22.99 15.00 33.85 32.94 Depreciation 2.41 2.00 3.18 2.00 1.81 1.76 Interest 3.98 2.87 1.16 0.90 1.26 2.01 Tax 2.44 2.01 2.79 1.83 3.86 2.70
Industry 09 10 -4.14 1.77 46.41 40.00 0.00 0.00 18.60 28.65 3.88 3.00 23.93 15.00 2.41 2.00 3.98 2.87 2.44 2.01
Cost Structure (as Percentage of Net sales) - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Company Bata India Store One Pantaloon Retail Year 09 10 09 10 09 10 Stock in trade 5.68 5.68 132.06 96.94 -4.10 7.27 Raw materials 18.49 18.49 0.00 0.00 0.35 1.00 Processing Charge 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Traded goods 19.03 19.03 0.00 0.00 73.42 65.00 Staff cost 14.30 14.30 23.95 17.59 4.32 3.00 Other expenditure 26.81 26.81 115.88 85.12 15.37 15.00 Depreciation 3.34 3.34 41.13 41.07 2.36 2.00 Interest 0.32 0.32 103.20 103.14 4.37 2.02 Tax 4.59 4.43 0.00 0.00 1.36 0.94
Industry 09 10 -4.14 1.77 46.41 40.00 0.00 0.00 18.60 28.65 3.88 3.00 23.93 15.00 2.41 2.00 3.98 2.87 2.44 2.01
Cost Structure (as Percentage of Net sales) - OND Company Gitanjali Gems Rajesh Exports Year 09 10 09 10 Stock in trade 4.94 4.79 -4.27 0.00 Raw materials 86.78 84.20 102.67 99.01 Processing Charge 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.84 Traded goods 0.00 0.00 0.00 99.60 Staff cost 0.44 0.43 0.07 0.00 Other expenditure 0.60 0.58 0.05 0.00 Depreciation 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.17 Interest 3.12 2.37 0.51 0.01 Tax 0.43 0.60 0.00 0.98
09 Vs OND 10 Shrenuj 09 10 5.59 5.63 66.44 66.97 0.00 0.00 11.75 11.84 1.84 1.85 4.57 4.60 0.37 0.37 7.13 6.03 0.80 0.74
Industry 09 10 -4.14 1.77 46.41 40.00 0.00 0.00 18.60 28.65 3.88 3.00 23.93 15.00 2.41 2.00 3.98 2.87 2.44 2.01
Cost Structure (as Percentage of Net sales) - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Company Asian star Classic Diamond Suashish Year 09 10 09 10 09 10 Stock in trade 1.51 2.94 -0.98 -0.98 3.75 3.78 Raw materials 87.40 85.00 42.73 42.73 53.42 53.93 Processing Charge 4.07 5.00 0.00 0.00 2.14 2.16 Traded goods 0.00 0.00 47.49 47.49 0.00 0.00 Staff cost 0.75 0.75 2.54 2.54 0.39 0.40 Other expenditure 1.82 1.67 1.61 1.61 39.45 39.83 Depreciation 0.49 0.55 0.80 0.89 0.22 0.22 Interest 1.80 1.06 3.96 3.96 0.00 0.00 Tax 0.39 1.06 -0.06 0.29 2.15 3.34
Industry 09 10 -4.14 1.77 46.41 40.00 0.00 0.00 18.60 28.65 3.88 3.00 23.93 15.00 2.41 2.00 3.98 2.87 2.44 2.01
Expansions Robust growth expected from organised Retail

Carrefour, the second-largest retail chain in the world after Walmart, plans to open its first wholesale cash-and-carry store in the country at Seelampur in Delhi in the next two to three months. With the store sprawling over 55,000-square feet of area, the store will source 90% of its products within the country. Aditya Birla Retail will invest up to US$44.3m in 2010-11 to expand its 'More' brand. The group will open 100 new supermarkets of 'More' and 8-10 new hypermarkets under the 'More Megastore' brand Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the world's biggest retailer, will accelerate its roll-out of wholesale stores in India. The firm now expects to open 10-12 wholesale centres in India over two-to-three years, from an earlier target of five years, as real estate prices have become more attractive K Raheja Group promoted Shopper's Stop has lined-up a capital expenditure of nearly US$27.6m to open about 12 stores in 2010-11. The new stores will come up in Bangalore, Delhi, Pune, Bhopal, Aurangabad, Vijaywada and Durgapur. British retail giant Tesco, expects to open its first cash-and-carry store in India by the end of 2010. Middle East retail chain Max is expanding its footprints across India. Max has 16 outlets operating in the metros while the rest are located in the tier II towns. It plans to take its total store count to 53 by March 2011, targeting a turnover of US$96.8m.
Diamond retail chain ORRA Diamonds plans capital expenditure of US$16.9m for opening 16 new stores over the next three years. The Adi Godrej-led Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) plans to focus on the African market and has drawn-up a strategy of 'One Africa' for the same. Bharti, Wal-Mart to open 15 stores - Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, continues to penetrate the Indian market and hopes to launch about 15 stores across India within three years. Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Retail Lifestyle is planning to increase the number of Reliance Jewels outlets to 100 by 2013.
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COMPANY ANALYSIS
1. Bata India Ltd
Quarter OND 10 (E) 3269.10 512.77 109.21 10.40 44.24 437.41 144.72 292.68 16% 9% 33% Growth Rate % YoY 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 9% 15% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 9874.35 10919.18 11% 866.36 1241.02 43% 190.01 279.23 47% 65.08 40.72 -37% 107.13 81.56 -24% 718.4 1002.63 40% 111.03 330.36 198% 607.37 672.27 11% 8.77% 11.37% 6.15% 6.16% 15% 33%
Item Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT TAX PAT OPM NPM Tax Rate
OND 09 (A) 2886.45 453.12 96.41 9.19 39.06 386.58 132.56 254.02 16% 9% 34%
JFM 11 (P) 2962.46 303.78 72.40 3.30 9.78 237.85 78.69 159.15 10% 5% 33%
Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected
2. Classic Diamond (India) Ltd.

Quarter OND 10 (E) 2111.49 148.86 18.80 83.60 0.00 46.46 6.15 40.31 7% 2% 13% Growth Rate % YoY 26% 35% 42% 26% 0% 50% 15% 26% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 7104.35 6719.11 -5% 653.23 400.67 -39% 66.51 57.44 -14% 269.13 296.97 10% 9.76 0 -100% 327.35 46.26 -86% 15.96 10.54 -34% 311.39 35.72 -89% 9% 6% 4% 1% 5% 23%
OND 09 (A) 1669.48 110.42 13.28 66.10 0.00 31.04 -1.00 32.04 7% 2% -3%
JFM 11 (P) 2533.79 217.75 25.34 101.35 0.00 91.06 21.86 69.21 9% 3% 24%
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3. Shrenuj & Co. Ltd.

Quarter Item Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT TAX PAT OPM NPM Tax Rate OND 09 (A) 2734.17 268.32 10.22 194.91 4.06 67.25 22.00 45.25 10% 2% 33% OND 10 (E) 3394.34 308.93 12.68 204.65 5.04 96.64 25.28 71.36 9% 2% 26% JFM 11 (P) 4073.21 427.69 15.89 288.26 0.00 123.54 25.28 98.26 11% 2% 20% Growth Rate % YoY 24% 15% 24% 5% 24% 44% 15% 58% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 9873.67 9113.66 -8% 1000.63 858.86 -14% 36.92 38.74 5% 490.32 610.81 25% 4.52 6.3 39% 477.91 215.61 -55% 171.65 83 -52% 306.26 132.61 -57% 10% 9% 3% 1% 36% 38%
4. Suashish Diamond Ltd.

Quarter OND 10 (E) 3392.22 -3.37 7.31 0.00 231.86 221.18 113.23 107.95 0% 3% 51% Growth Rate % YoY 5% -112% 5% 0% 5% -8% 64% -37% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 12232.45 7621.82 -38% 727.33 -195.04 -127% 42.64 32.18 -25% 0 0 0 526.73 -421.74 -180% 1211.42 -648.96 -154% 390.88 -50.7 -113% 820.54 -598.26 -173% 6% -3% 6% -8% 32% 8%
OND 09 (A) 3221.43 27.37 6.95 0.00 220.19 240.61 69.12 171.49 1% 5% 29%
JFM 11 (P) 4070.66 1192.34 15.88 411.76 0.00 764.70 229.41 535.29 29% 13% 30%
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5. Provogue (India) Ltd.

Quarter OND 10 (E) 1710.94 198.01 34.22 49.14 0.00 114.65 34.40 80.26 12% 5% 30% Growth Rate % YoY 39% 42% 15% 0% -100% -3% 15% -9% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 3597.27 4806.67 34% 385.25 516.32 34% 95.11 122.84 29% 149.71 199.45 33% 262.60 207.43 -21% 403.03 401.46 0% 108.84 117.93 8% 294.19 283.53 -4% 11% 11% 8% 6% 27% 29%
OND 09 (A) 1231.09 139.41 29.63 49.03 57.77 118.52 30.00 88.52 11% 7% 25%
JFM 11 (P) 2053.12 249.19 41.06 62.44 0.00 145.69 43.71 101.98 12% 5% 30%
6. Store One Retail India

Quarter OND 10 (E) 12.10 -12.07 4.97 12.48 2.40 -27.12 0.00 -27.12 -100% -187% 0% Growth Rate % YoY -70% -83% -70% -70% -37% -78% 0% -78% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 1964.77 1045.48 -47% -1085.29 -470.46 -57% 75.00 335.47 347% 138.71 142.13 2% 17.63 55.62 215% -1281.37 -892.44 -30% 7.95 10.46 32% -1289.32 -902.9 -30% -55% -45% -66% -86% -1% -1%
OND 09 (A) 40.92 -70.34 16.83 42.23 3.78 -125.62 0.00 -125.62 -172% -281% 0%
JFM 11 (P) 14.52 0.51 2.90 13.73 0.00 -16.12 0.00 -16.12 4% -111% 0%
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7. Shopper Stop Ltd.

Quarter OND 10 (E) 5226.98 731.78 104.54 47.04 0.00 580.19 95.65 484.54 14% 9% 16% Growth Rate % YoY 37% 57% -14% 6% 0% -94% 10% -15% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 12651.20 14080.59 11% 185.56 1153.86 522% 631.31 310.25 -51% 197.82 186.9 -6% 0 0 #DIV/0! -643.57 656.71 -202% -6.39 154.4 -2516% -637.18 502.31 -179% 1% 8% -5% 4% 1% 24%
OND 09 (A) 3826.01 465.11 121.82 44.35 0.00 298.94 106.80 192.14 12% 5% 36%
JFM 11 (P) 6272.38 878.13 125.45 56.45 0.00 696.23 114.78 581.45 14% 9% 16%
8. Gitanjali Gems Ltd.

Quarter OND 10 (E) 10895.55 1089.56 11.62 258.55 0.05 819.44 65.21 754.23 10% 7% 8% Growth Rate % YoY 24% 72% 18% -5% 0% 133% 72% 140% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 26543.29 26938.47 1% 1693.96 1801.78 6% 34.26 43.36 27% 177.92 453.39 155% 4.95 2.17 -56% 1486.73 1307.2 -12% 105.2 39.51 -62% 1381.53 1267.69 -8% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7% 3%
OND 09 (A) 8760.08 634.15 9.82 273.52 1.40 352.21 37.85 314.36 7% 4% 11%
JFM 11 (P) 12529.88 1679.00 22.43 300.72 0.05 1355.91 94.91 1261.00 13% 10% 7%
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9. Trent Ltd.
OND 09 (A) 1546.70 234.17 27.99 19.49 31.60 218.29 59.66 158.63 15% 10% 27% Quarter OND 10 (E) 2051.52 401.94 36.14 41.15 40.80 365.44 55.31 310.13 20% 15% 15% JFM 11 (P) 1777.79 93.59 36.14 2.83 41.83 96.46 8.14 88.32 5% 5% 8% Growth Rate % YoY 33% 72% 29% 111% 29% 67% -7% 96% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 5141.59 5140 0% 152.21 62.24 -59% 88.54 92.33 4% 13.15 13.13 0% 322.71 325.98 1% 373.23 282.76 -24% 44.60 15.21 -66% 328.63 267.55 -19% 2.96% 1.21% 6.39% 5.21% 12% 5%
10. Asian Star Co. Ltd.

Quarter OND 10 (E) 4360.18 1335.87 23.98 341.09 0.00 970.80 339.78 631.02 31% 14% 35% Growth Rate % YoY 38% 853% 54% 503% -100% 118% 23% 3% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 12542.98 13485.10 8% 651.19 669.11 3% 66.14 76.35 15% 263.14 236.44 -10% 3.28 13.71 318% 325.19 370.03 14% 135.97 88.80 -35% 189.22 281.23 49% 5% 5% 2% 2% 42% 24%
OND 09 (A) 3152.08 140.18 15.54 56.61 7.78 75.81 12.27 63.54 4% 2% 16%
JFM 11 (P) 4578.19 1382.97 30.22 351.72 0.00 1001.04 350.36 650.68 30% 14% 35%
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11. Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd

Quarter OND 10 (E) 11897.88 1038.19 237.96 240.07 0.00 560.16 168.05 392.11 9% 3% 30% Growth Rate % YoY -38% -49% -47% -71% -100% -27% -36% -23% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 63417.00 59343.70 -6% 3153.30 5791.30 84% 1400.50 1618.80 16% 3182.20 2882.40 -9% 60.60 846.30 1297% -1368.80 2136.40 -256% 756.50 340.80 -55% -2125.30 1795.60 -184% 5% 10% -3% 3% -55% 16%
OND 09 (A) 19128.40 2034.40 451.70 835.30 20.20 767.60 260.90 506.70 11% 3% 34%
JFM 11 (P) 14277.46 1544.39 285.55 377.65 0.00 881.19 264.36 616.83 11% 4% 30%
12. Rajesh Exports Ltd.

OND 09 (A) 45321.72 673.90 5.23 229.86 0.19 439.00 0.00 439.00 1% 1% 0% Quarter OND 10 (E) 46261.99 460.26 4.79 308.59 0.18 147.05 0.00 147.05 1% 0.3% 0.0% JFM 11 (P) 48575.09 2669.87 4.37 932.92 0.00 1732.57 519.77 1212.80 5% 2.5% 30.0% Growth Rate % YoY 2% -32% -8% 34% -6% -67% 0% -67% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 86670.15 123417.73 42% 3816.78 2152.42 -44% 16.28 17.56 8% 1479.99 1415.74 -4% 0.75 266.55 35440% 2321.26 985.67 -58% 255.64 111.91 -56% 2065.62 873.76 -58% 4% 2% 2% 1% 11% 11%
16
SOURCES & METHODS FOR COMPANY PROJECTIONS

Sources Company annual reports Press releases BSE India Research reports related to Economy, Industry and Company Methods Understanding companies product services Understanding industry and economic indicators and general economic scenario Understanding the dynamics between the companies and the industry in relation to demand and supply, technology, regulation, inflation, etc Understanding recent strategies and initiatives taken by companies such as product launches, capacity additions and M&As Making revenue projections based on the expected business strategies and financial analysis Validating the financial projections of the company with the overall business strategy Calculating the cost structure on the basis of sales and past and present trends in the industry Analysing quarterly growth rates and growth rates of last 8 quarters
The cut-off date for OND quarter results is January 18, 2011. Quarterly performance analysis of companies announcing their results after this date is based on Cygnus estimates.
17

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QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES (October December 2010)

INDIAN RETAIL & GEMS AND JEWELLERY INDUSTRY

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd.

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research

Net Profit and NPM

PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS)

91000 OND 09 (A) OND 10 (E)

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Net Sales OPM NPM

Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research

Net Sales OPM NPM

Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research

Net Sales OPM NPM

Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Net Sales OPM NPM

Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Expansions Robust growth expected from organised Retail

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

2. Classic Diamond (India) Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

3. Shrenuj & Co. Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

4. Suashish Diamond Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

5. Provogue (India) Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

6. Store One Retail India

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

7. Shopper Stop Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

8. Gitanjali Gems Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

10. Asian Star Co. Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

11. Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

12. Rajesh Exports Ltd.

Source: Cygnus Research Note: A: Actuals; E: Estimated; P: Projected

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

SOURCES & METHODS FOR COMPANY PROJECTIONS

Cygnus Business Consulting & Research Pvt. Ltd., 2011

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