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165
Economic Survey 2010-11
deprivations in many dimensions of human life governance. The massive social disruption owing
such as hunger, ill health, malnutrition, to earthquake of 2005, intensification of war on
unemployment, inadequate shelter, lack of terror since 2007, devastating floods of 2010, and
education, vulnerability, powerlessness, social persistent hike in food prices in recent years
exclusion and so on. coupled with slower pace of economic growth has
serious ramifications for poverty and income
Though Pakistan has made significant progress in distribution.
human development and poverty reduction over
the past three decades, it is considered relatively Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty
slow over a long horizon. Besides, the social and
High food prices erode the purchasing power of
economic exclusion has resulted in multiple
households having low income and high share in
deprivations for more than 50 percent of
expenditure basket and could undermine poverty
Pakistan’s population. The inadequacy of income
reduction and human development gains achieved
to meet basic needs, low quality of life, denial of
over the last decade or so. The data of last two
opportunities and choices basic to human
poverty estimates (2004-05 and 2005-06) suggests
development are different facets of poverty. The
strong clustering around the poverty line.
main objectives of government policies are to
Historically, around 75 percent of the population
raise the standard of living and improve the socio-
surrounds both sides of the poverty line. This
economic conditions of the people and thus
enhances vulnerability as small injections of
reduce the incidence of poverty in the country.
income or crop failure may change poverty
situation drastically. The poor before the price
The government has subscribed strongly to the
increases may now be on the verge of hunger and
inclusive growth with human face. The
malnutrition, and those who were barely above the
meaningful and sustainable economic
poverty line may have slipped back into poverty.
development must involve and share fruits of
Given the high incidence of poverty in Pakistan,
development with all citizens, especially the poor,
higher food inflation disproportionately affects the
unemployed, marginalized communities and
poor. Moreover, because of the large share of food
generally, the disadvantaged groups. Economic
in the average household consumption budget, a
development should be supported by productive
sustained rise in food prices tends to put upward
labour force and development of necessary skills
pressure on wages and, with a time lag, on general
to meet the challenges in industrial development
inflation. The food inflation averaged at 18
through a culture of merit and excellence.
percent during the last four years in Pakistan.
The poverty reduction strategy of the government Food prices has witnessed phenomenal rise during
focuses mainly on the five areas which include i) the last three and half years [See Table-13.1].
accelerating economic growth and maintaining There are many structural factors combined with
macroeconomic stability; ii) investing in human short-term disruptions and natural calamities are
capital; iii) augmenting targeted interventions; iv) responsible for this inordinate rise. Bringing food
expanding social safety nets and v) improving inflation down remained the major policy
challenge for Pakistan.
Table-13.1: Price Trend of Essential Commodities (Rs) per Kg
Items Weights Units Jan-08 19th May 2011 % change
Wheat 0.62 Kg 18.98 24.24 27.71
Wheat Flour 11.91 Kg 19.41 28.35 46.06
Beef 3.99 Kg 122.33 226.55 85.20
Mutton 2.81 Kg 233.79 440.06 88.23
Chicken (Farm) 2.39 Kg 74.74 125.12 67.41
Milk Fresh 15.73 Ltr 29.63 55.27 86.53
Cooking Oil 1.90 2.5 Ltr 300.84 495.00 64.54
Rice 1.52 Kg 34.43 54.17 57.33
Sugar 4.46 Kg 25.97 65.59 152.56
Mash Pulse 0.49 Kg 70.50 156.71 122.28
Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics
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Poverty
Table-13.2: Impact of Domestic Food Price Increase on Poverty for Developing Asia
Poverty before Price Poverty after Food Price Increase by
Increase 10% 20% 30%
Based on $1.25-a-day poverty line
Percentage of Poor (%) 27.1 29 30.9 32.9
Change in percentage of poor 1.9 3.9 5.8
(percentage points) 903 968 1032 1097
Change in number of poor 64.4 128.8 193.2
(in millions)
Poverty gap ratio (%) 6.79 8.15 9.51 10.86
Change in poverty gap ratio 1.4 2.7 4.1
(percentage points)
Note: The estimates of poverty impact have been derived using the price elasticity of poverty, which indicates the
percentageincrease in poverty when food prices increase by 1%. This elasticity was estimated for both headcount
ratio and poverty gap ratio for each of the 25 countries in Asia and the Pacific using the latest POVCAL database.
Source: ADB staff calculations based on the latest POVCAL database (accessed 18 February 2011).
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Economic Survey 2010-11
Table-13.3: Impact of Food Price Increases on Poverty ($1.25-a-day poverty line)
Change in Percentage of Poor Change in Number of Poor
(in percentage points) (in millions)
with an Increase in Food Prices by with an Increase in Food Prices by
10% 20% 30% 10% 20% 30%
Bangladesh 2.5 5.0 7.5 3.83 7.65 11.48
India Rural 2.9 5.8 8.8 22.82 45.64 69.45
India Urban 2.1 4.3 6.4 6.68 13.36 20.04
Pakistan 2.2 4.5 6.7 3.47 6.94 10.41
Bhutan 1.8 3.5 5.3 0.01 0.02 0.03
Philippines 1.6 3.2 4.9 1.37 2.75 4.12
Sri Lanka 1.2 2.4 3.6 0.24 0.47 0.71
Thailand 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.05 0.10 0.15
Viet Nam 1.9 3.7 5.6 1.55 3.10 4.65
Source: ADB staff calculations using the latest POVCAL database (accessed 18 February 2011).
Source: Calculations based on the data of PIHS 2001-02; HIES 2004-05; PSLM 2005-06, 2007-08
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Pooverty
4.0 durinng the year 2007-08. Coonsistent with Kong offer clear examples of o the effeccts of
the increeased share of
o the poor in rural areaas economic growth on poverty alleviation. It is
in 2005--06, the rich-poor gap narrowed in evidennt from the exxperience of these
t countriees that
2005-06 as the ratio o declined from 2.19 in the peersistence of high
h economic growth andd not a
short sequence of bust and boom that
2004-05 to 1.97 in 2005-06. However,
H thhe
characcterized the Pakistan
P econoomy over the years
ratio incrreased to 2.2
2 during the year 2007-008 is the best hope foor poverty alleviation. Pakkistan
indicating increase inn inequalities. has experienced reduction
r in absolute pooverty
over a four year perriod (2002-20006) as the pooverty
The ratioo of highest to
t lowest quuintiles for thhe headcoount decreaseed from 34.55 percent in 2000-2
urban areas
a showeed an incrreasing trennd 01 to 22.3 percennt in 2005-006. The grapph in
during thhe period 2001-02
2 to 2005-06
2 as it Figuree-13.1 plots change in poverty
p headdcount
increasedd from 10.4 in 2001-02 tot 13.0 durinng againsst change in per
p capita GD DP growth (33 year
the year 2005-06. However,
H itt declined to movinng average). It is appparent that large
10.9 duriing the year 2007-08. reducttions in poverty headcouunt are assocciated
with substantial groowth in per caapita GDP.
Growth Poverty
P Nexu
us
Whilee growth is essential but b not suffficient
Rapid ecoonomic grow wth over a proolonged periood condittion for pooverty reduction as a weak
is essential for povertty reduction. At the macro redistrributive efffect, owingg to increeasing
level, economic
e growth
g impplies greatter inequaalities, resultts in an inccrease in poverty,
availabilitty of public resources too improve thhe whichh is also true for Pakistann. Poverty in rural
quantity and
a quality off education, health
h and othher areas is relatively higher than urban areas. The
services. At the micrro level, ecoonomic grow wth rural-uurban gap wiidened since 1992-93 witth the
creates em mployment opportunities,
o , increases thhe rise inn poverty incidence, howevver, the gap teend to
incomes of the peop ple, and therrefore reduces narrow w with fall in rural poveerty since 2000-01
poverty. East Asian countries suuch as Koreea, [Fig-13.2].
Malaysia,, China, Taiw wan, Singapoore, and Honng
Fiig-13.1: Chang
ges in Growth and Poverty Fig-1
13.2: Poverty Heaadcount Urban Rural
R (%)
6.0
3.9 3.4 Ruural Headcount N
National Headcoun
nt Urban Headco
ount
4.0 45
1.4
2.0 0.8
0.2 40
0.0 35
-2.0 -1.0 30
-1.6
-4.0 25
-6.0 20
-8.0
15
-10.0
10
-100.6
-12.0
1984-85
1987-88
1990-91
1992-93
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2004-05
2005 06
2005-06
1998-99 200
01-02 2004-055 2005-06
Δ in Per Capita
C GDP Growth Rate*
R Δ in Nationaal Poverty Head Couunt
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Economic Survey 2010-11
However, to take poverty heads on require presented in Table 13.5 & 13.6 reveals that the
sustained and inclusive growth. areas affected by floods were consistently lagging
behind in terms of educational indicators as
Impact of Floods on Poverty Situation compared to the areas unaffected by floods. The
The floods of 2010 have long-lasting impact on loss to infrastructure and livelihood sources will
socio-economic development of the country as push them behind further. Until restoration of
nearly 20 million people were impacted by the normalcy in these areas, economic activity will be
damages to economic activity. The floods have hampered by after effects of floods. The
caused a significant loss to poverty reduction vulnerability of the population of affected areas
efforts and would result in increase in poverty and against natural shocks of this intensity was very
vulnerability of affected population. The analysis low even before the floods and this has
complicated the situation.
Table 13.5: Pre-Flood Education Sector Indicators of Flood Affected Areas
Areas PSLM 2004-05 PSLM 2008-09
Net Enrollment Rate* (NER) Primary Level
NER GPI NER GPI
Pakistan Overall 52.4 0.85 57.4 0.88
Severely Affected by Floods 41.8 0.73 47.9 0.77
Moderately Affected by Floods 53.1 0.82 58.2 0.83
Not Affected by Floods 58.0 0.92 62.2 0.95
Literacy for Ages 10 Years and Above
Literacy GPI Literacy GPI
Pakistan Overall 52.8 0.62 57.3 0.65
Severely Affected by Floods 41.4 0.41 45.6 0.44
Moderately Affected by Floods 49.4 0.50 54.8 0.54
Not Affected by Floods 58.8 0.73 62.9 0.75
Youth Literacy for Ages 15-24
Literacy GPI Literacy GPI
Pakistan Overall 65.5 0.72 69.6 0.77
Severely Affected by Floods 51.5 0.48 55.9 0.54
Moderately Affected by Floods 62.4 0.60 67.3 0.66
Not Affected by Floods 72.3 0.85 75.9 0.88
Source: CPRSPD staff calculations from PSLM 2004-05 and 2008-09
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Poverty
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Economic Survey 2010-11
disbursements and increase in beneficiaries by 82 disbursement was the closure of PBM’s Food
percent from 1.16 million to 2.11 million). The Support Program (FSP) in 2009-10 as the FSP
main reason behind this sharp decline in overall was merged in Benazir Income Support Program.
172
Poverty
demand and time liabilities when calculating their reserve requirements for regulatory purposes.
statutory liquidity and the cash
Table-13.8: Active Borrowers, Active Savers and Active Policy holders by Peer Group
Micro-credit Micro-Savings Micro-Insurance
Active
Details Value (PKR Active Value (PKR Policy Sum insured
Borrowers
Million) Savers Million) Holders (PKR Million)
(Million)
2008-09 1.78 20.3 2.15 6.9 2.08 29.4
2009-10 1.98 25.1 2.8 9.6 3.81 53.7
Increase/ 0.19 4.8 0.7 2.7 1.73 24.3
decrease (Net)
Increase/ 11% 23% 32% 39% 83% 83%
decrease (%)
Source: Pakistan Microfinance Network (PMN), Islamabad.
173