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Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
IndiMO II
In continuation to the part I of the 2011 Indian Monsoon Forecast, the PART II is being issued
Parameters-
Its a CHAOS! now happening in the Indian Ocean and part of it in the Arabian Sea. In Mid May when the PART I was being prepared forecast parameters did show a support to a normal and well developed monsoon current by this
( May) month end. However, real time data is suggesting a different scenario
The El Nino Southern Oscillation after being in the Moderate La Nina stage is finally turning to Neutral Stage which has been confirmed from the Sea Surface Temp data as of Mid May. The peak anomaly in Central Equatorial Pacific
was barely -0.77C ( In a very very less region) while IT WAS 0.0C IN MOST OF THE AREA INDICATING THE TRANSITION TO A NEUTRAL STAGE
The present stage is a La Nina Weak to Neutral Stage and I guarantee a 100% chance of ENSO turning to Neutral in June. The effects of La Nina on global scale shall withdraw by June end
** This means that 2011 Indian Monsoon Season will be a Neutral ENSO setup which WAS FORECASTED BY METD WEATHER SINCE EARLY APRIL AND WAS CONTROVERSIAL TO MANY OTHER WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS IN
INDIA
Above-
The SST data as on May 22 2011 indicates a broad region of Neutral ENSO and poor regions of La Nina
The Somali Current which looked very good in Mid May has now started fading away and seems to be getting unsymmetrical in nature of flow due to the expected Re-appearance of The Great Whirl or the surface High Pressure
region in Central Arabian Sea
This High pressure region or the great whirl shall act as a barrier in the NE progression of the monsoon trough and we might get to see a split flow pattern which means that the monsoon winds and the embedded somali current shall
pass through Southern Peninsula of the country into the Bay of Bengal. and with supporting upper level winds in the Bay, the moisture shall cause lots of rainfall in the North East India
Another reason for the prevention on incursion of SW Monsoon into Central India is the lack of a Strong pulling low mechanism ( In Mainland of India or in the Bay of Bengal)
THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE ABENCE OF CYCLONES! The North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season has both positive and negative impacts on the Monsoon.
If a strong cyclone forms within the monsoon trough in the Arabian Sea,it acts as an obstacle to SW Monsoon progression(CASE I) as it disturbs the monsoon current. However, Bay lows provide additional pulling mechanism for the
winds and help in the progress (CASE II)
Above Image-
Above Image shows a change in the nature of 925mb winds ( Forecast models) from present period to +168th hour
In the ANALYSIS image, you can notice a divergence wind flow at the Equator just South of Sri Lanka. Its the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ
In the +168th hr image, you can notice how the low level winds are intensifying over Central India and are boosting in the Bay of Bengal due to a high pressure in Central Arabian Sea ( Can be seen in the area which looks to be the
center of this verring winds)
Tropical Cyclones originate from persisting areas of supportive convection ( mostly isolated thunderstorms areas provided by the Interseasonal Variational Oscillation- MJO) in the large oceans which has SST over 27C, relaxed mid
and upper level winds to permit the latent heat release, supportive moisture and convergence ( Movement of air inwards from nearby region to a point in the system) and upper level divergence ( movement of air into surrounding from
a point in the system)
This year surprisingly the Madden Jullian Oscillation activity was been a Suppressed Convection* phase of +2.5 magnitude as on 23rd May 2011. This means that broad lower tropospheric circulation at present has a tendency of
suppressing convection which is against than that required for cyclones
( * Convection- It is a process of Heat Transfer for a system in non thermal equilibrium which takes place in fluids only)
Above-
The Madden Jullian Oscillation waves as in the region of longitude ( 70E to 100E ) which roughly marks the region comprising of Arabian Sea,India and Bay of Bengal showing a strong red part ( Suppressed Convection wave)
This had widely affected the progress of Monsoon as well as inhibited formation of cyclones and other low pressure zones in the seas.
--
Q. WHAT SHALL BE THE STATE OF MJO IN JUNE?
Forecast models indicating ( Empirical Wave Propogation) that a weak enhanced phase or wet phase shall be slowly moving through the area leading to increase in rainfall activity in southern India during May 28- June 6 2011
This shall also bring some more pre monsoon (PMS) and the monsoon shower in many areas in Southern India particularly Western Coast.
The approaching enhanced phase also is likely to provide the tropical wave ( birthplace of cyclones) by June 5th or so.
Q.If the Cyclone forms, how will it affect the progress of SW Monsoon ?
If GFS is to be believed, I assume that since this cyclone or a broad low pressure will form in the monsoon trough, it might disrupt the progress of monsoon as had been done all the time every year.
It mostly depends on the track of the setup and its separation from the Monsoon Trough. If the present track is to be believed,it shall plum ample rainfall along western India and a bit inside India and then deflect away monsoon winds
if it maintains its intensity.
However, if the present track is to be believed, it shall near India thus pulling the SW Monsoon winds.
***
Brief-
The PMS shall continue in Kerala,Karnataka in remaining days of May. Due to absence of pulling mechanism right now, Monsoon shall not be keeping its dates for Kerala
( Pre-Monsoon shower or the Rainfall due to low pressure for West Coast to continue till 9-10th June*** )
As the Low shall move towards Omen, it shall pull away winds towards itself and favored by approaching dry phase of MJO, The SW Monsoon progress shall come to a slow stage from 10th June onwards till end of the June
This means that for Southern part of India ( Excluding Andhra Pradesh) rest regions will mark the arrival of monsoon
For most of maharashtra ( Excluding Western Coast), dry weather shall prevail
QUANTUM-
WITH NEUTRAL CONDITIONS APPEARING IN THE PACIFIC ( NEUTRAL ENSO) THE ACTIVITY OF MJO SHALL REDUCE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR.
This will be the track due to enhanced MJO and the possible formation of a Tropical low in June