EM561 Lecture Notes - Part 1 of 3

IE 360
Probability and Statistics for

Engineers
Gail W. DePuy, PhD, PE
Room 311 JB Speed Building
Department of Industrial Engineering
University of Louisville
Louisville, KY 40292 USA
Phone: 502-852-0115
Email: depuy@louisville.edu
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Introductions
• My background
• My
M goals
l ffor thi
this class
l
• Want students to UNDERSTAND material
• Not just plug-and-chug
• Wide variety of statistical software tools

available – let’s
’ use them
• Know what button to push
• Know how to interpret results
1
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Course Objective
This course is designed to give students an
introduction to probability theory and
statistics, and exposure to how the theory
may be applied in an engineering
environment.
Help students gain an understanding of the

effects of variability and the importance of
properly considering variability
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Course Information
Text:
Montgomery, D.C., and Runger, G.C., Applied Statistics and Probability
for Engineers, 4th edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2007
Grading:
You should consider
HW#1 (due 7/18) 20%
keeping this book for
HW#2 (due 7/22) 20% future reference.
Test 1 (7/20) 30%
I will follow the book
Test 2 (7/23) 30%
fairly closely
Note: I try to use
Course Grades: different examples than
90-100 A the book so you’ll have
80-89 B many to study
70-79 C
60-69 D Read the book!!
<60 F
2
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Class Schedule
Chpt. in Course Topics
Date
4th edition
7/13 1 Introduction and Descriptive Statistics
2 Probability
7/14 2 Probability (continued)
3 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions
7/15 3 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions (continued)
4 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
7/16 4 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions (continued)
6 Random Sampling and Data Description
7/18 6 Random Sampling and Data Description (continued)
7 Point Estimation
8 Confidence Intervals
Homework #1 review
7/20 Exam 1 (covers chpts. 1,2,3,4) open book
7/21 Exam 1 review
9 Test of Hypotheses
7/22 11 Linear Regression
Homework #2 review
7/23 Exam 2 (covers chpts. 6,7,8,9,11) open book
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Class Policies
• Homework Assignments
– Can work in groups of 3. Submit one solution set with all names.
• Test
– There will be NO communicating of any kind (talking, sharing notes
or books, sharing calculators, etc) with anyone else.
– Open book, open notes.
• Extra Credit
– None
• Blackboard
– Check Bb often - Lecture slides will be posted to Bb before they are
covered in class
– Check your UofL email account often
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Statistical Software
• Lots of different statistical software
packages available
• We’ll use:
– Excel
– Minitab
• See file ‘Minitab Download from IT.ppt’ in ‘Course
Documents’ folder on Bb
– Be sure to read last slide of instructions
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Science of chance, Science of data

uncertainties collecting, processing,
presentation, analyzing
what is possible
interpretation of data
what is probable
mathematical formulas numbers with context
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Probability Theory
• Branch of mathematics developed to deal
with uncertainty
• Scientific tool dealing with chance
• Initially developed in 17th century to analyze
gambling games then used to analyze
mortality tables in medical profession
• Probability provides the framework for the
study and application of statistics.
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Statistics
• The field of statistics deals with the collection, presentation,
analysis, and use of data to:
– Make
M k decisions
d i i
– Solve problems
– Design products and processes
• Statistical techniques are useful for describing and
understanding variability.
• Statistics gives us a framework for describing this
variability and for learning about potential sources of
variability.
– Known source of variation
– Random variation
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Random Experiments
• System
y output
p
affected by
controllable and
uncontrollable (noise)
variables
• Examples: baseball
hitting car braking
hitting,
distance, concrete
strength.
– Controllable variables?
– And random variation!
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Random Experiments
• Definition
How to mathematically model the system and its

variation?
How to use model to draw conclusions or make
predictions?
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Variation
• Goal: Understand, quantify, and model
variation
• Why? When we incorporate variation into
our thinking and analysis, we can make
informed judgments that are not invalidated
byy the variation
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Effect of Variation
• How many call center employees to have so
customers are not put on hold?
• Collect customer
c stomer data:
data
• Avg. time between customer calls= 4 min
• Avg. time to serve customer = 3.5 mins
• Based on averages ……..
Time
0 5 10 15 20 25
• 1 employee needed
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Effect of Variation
• But what about variation?
– Less than 4 min between calls
– More
M th 3.5
than 3 5 min
i tto serve customer
t
Time
0 5 10 15 20 25
• Now more than 1 employee needed

• Variation causes disruptions in the system!
• Goal: Understand, quantify, and model variation
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Probability Theory
• Branch of mathematics developed to deal
with uncertainty
• Scientific tool dealing with chance
• Probability provides the framework for the
study and application of statistics.
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Experiments
• In general, an experiment is any process for
which more than one outcome is possible
• Probability theory provides mathematical
structure for understanding/explaining the
chances or likelihoods of the various
outcomes actuallyy occurringg
• First step is to list all possible outcomes
– Called Sample Space
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2-1.2 Sample Spaces

• Definition
• Sample space for roll of 1 die?

• Sample space for flip of 2 coins?
• Sample space for # tails in 2 coin flips?
• Sample space for car brake distance?
• Sample space for your grade in this course?
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Sample Space
• Sample Space is either discrete or continuous
• Discrete – finite or countable set of outcomes
• Continuous – interval (finite or infinite) of real numbers
• Discrete or Continuous sample space?

– Sample space for roll of 1 die?
– Sample space for flip of 2 coins?
– Sample space for # tails in 2 coin flips?
– Sample space for car brake distance?
– Sample space for your grade in this course?
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2-1.2 Sample Spaces

• Sample spaces can also be described
graphically with tree diagrams.
• e.g. digital communication system. 3 messages sent. Each
message either received on time or late. Sample space for
all 3 messages
8 Outcomes
OOO OOL
OLO OLL
LOO LOL
LLO LLL
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2-1.3 Events
• Definition
• An event is a subset of the sample space of a random
experiment
• An event is a collection of related outcomes from a
random experiment
• Example: Deck of 52 cards. Draw 1 card.
• Sample space?
• A is the event I draw a heart
• A={ }
• B is the event I draw a 4

• B={ }
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2-1.3 Events
Combinations of Events (a.k.a. Joint Events)
• Union of 2 events consists of all outcomes contained in
either of the 2 events
– Union denoted E1 U E2
– Read “event 1 OR event 2”
• Intersection of 2 events consists of all outcomes
contained in both of the 2 events
– Intersection denoted E1 ∩ E2
– Read “e
“event
ent 1 AND event
e ent 2”
• Complement of an event is the set of all outcomes not in
the event
– Complement denoted E1’
– Read “NOT event 1”
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2-1.3 Events
• Example: Deck of 52 cards. Draw 1 card.
• A is the event I draw a heart
• How to denote?
• Event I draw the 4 of hearts?
• Event I draw any suit other than hearts?
• Event I draw a 4 or a heart?
• Event I draw a 4 of any suit other than hearts?
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2-1.3 Events
• 3 car manufacturers were asked to submitted 1 car of each
model they produce for emissions testing.
• Each car either conforms or does not conform to current
emissions standards. Conforms
Yes No
Ford 40 15
• Let A denote the event a car is a Ford GM 50 20
• Let B denote the event a car conformed Toyota 20 5
• Determine the number of car models in A

• Determine the number of car models in A ∩ B
• Determine the number of car models in A U B
• Determine the number of car models in A’ ∩ B
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2-1.3 Events
• Definition
• Example: Deck of 52 cards.

cards Draw 1 card.
card
• A is the event I draw a king
• A∩B=?
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Venn Diagrams
Mutually exclusive
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2-2 Probability
• Probability - Likelihood of an experimental
outcome or event occurring
• Probability of Outcome 1 denoted P(O1) or p1
• All probability values are between 0 and 1
(inclusive)
• 0 ≤ P(O1) ≤ 1
• P(O1) = 0 indicates outcome O1 will NOT occur.
Outcome O1 is impossible
• P(O1) = 1 indicates outcome O1 WILL occur. Outcome
O1 is guaranteed to occur
CANNOT have a probability >1 or <0
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2-2 Probability
• Remember an event is a subset of the sample
space of a random experiment
• Probability
P b bili off E
Event d
denoted
d P(E)
• All probability values are between 0 and 1
(inclusive)
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
• P(E) = 0 indicates event will NOT occur
occur. Event is
impossible
• P(E) = 1 indicates event WILL occur. Event is
guaranteed to occur
CANNOT have a probability >1 or <0
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2-2 Probability
• The sum of all the probability values over all
outcomes in the sample space is 1.
• P(O1) + P(O2) + P(O3) + • • • + P(On) = 1
• Some outcome in S will occur (definition of S)
• P(O1) + P(O2) + P(O3) + • • • + P(On) = 1

• P(O)
( ) = 1 – P(O’)
( ) ← Very
y useful
• Similarly P(E) = 1 - P(E’)
• Suppose S=(1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8). Find P(Outcome ≤ 6)
• P(Outcome ≤ 6) = P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)
= 1 - P(Outcome > 6) = 1 – [P(7)+P(8)]
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2-2 Probability
• The sum of all the probability values over all
outcomes in the sample space is 1.
• P(O1) + P(O2) + P(O3) + • • • + P(On) = 1
• Read “Prob of outcome O1 OR outcome O2 OR
outcome O3 • • • OR outcome On occurring is 1”
• Some outcome in sample space WILL occur (definition
of S)
• Note OR indicated by + Later we’ll see AND
indicated by *
• Look at this logically and mathematically…….
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2-2 Probability
• OR (Union) indicated by + AND (intersection) indicated by *
• P(outcome O1 OR outcome O2 ) >? <? P(outcome O1)

– Prob UofL wins Men’s OR Women’s NCAA BB
Championship
– Function of sum or product of individual probabilities?
• Remember 0 ≤ P(O) ≤ 1
• P(outcome O1 AND outcome O2 ) >? <? P(outcome O1)
– Prob UofL wins Men’s AND Women’s NCAA BB
Championship
– Function of sum or product of individual probabilities?
• Remember 0 ≤ P(O) ≤ 1
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2-2 Probability
• Used to quantify likelihood or chance of
experimental outcome or event occurring
• The larger the probability, the more likely it is to
happen
• Interpreted as the long-term, relative frequency of
experimental outcome or event occurring
– Repeat experiment many, many times
– Count the number of times each outcome occurs
• Probability of an outcome is the # times outcome occurred
relative to the # of experimental trials
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2-2 Probability
• Roll 1 die. Probability I roll a 3?
– Total # outcomes in sample space?
– # outcomes that meet above criteria?
• Choose 1 card from a deck of 52. Probability I choose the

ace of spades?
• Choose 1 card from a deck of 52. Probability I choose an
ace (of any suit)?
• Choose 1 card from a deck of 52. Probability I choose a
spade?
In the above examples, each outcome is equally likely.

Not always the case ………
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2-2 Probability
• 500 computer chips are collected from 2 production lines
for quality inspection. 220 chips are from line 1 and 280
chips are from line 2. A quality inspector chooses a chip at
random. Probability the chip was produced on line 2?
• Customers can order small, medium, or large drink. Of
1000 observed customers, 300 ordered small, 200 ordered
medium, and 500 ordered large. Probability a customer
will order a large drink?
• R
Rollll 2 di
dice. P
Probability
b bilit the
th sum is
i 5? P
Probability
b bilit the
th sum
is 7?
• Lottery ticket consists of 6 numbers (1-40) with no
repeated numbers. Probability I win if I buy 1 ticket?
• # outcomes in sample space? See next discussion……
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2.1-4 Counting number of

outcomes in sample space
• Not always convenient (or necessary) to LIST all
outcomes in sample space
• BUT we do need to know HOW MANY outcomes
are in the sample space to compute probabilities
• 3 counting techniques
– Multiplication rule
– Permutations
– Combinations
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2.1-4 The Multiplication Rule
• If an experiment consists of a sequence of k

steps
t in
i which
hi h
• there are n1 possible outcomes for the first step,
• n2 possible outcomes for the second step, and
so on,
• then the total number of experimental outcomes
is given by (n1)*(n2)* . . . *(nk).
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True/False test with 5 questions. How many different test
solutions? TTTTT, TFFFF, TFTFT, …..
• The 1st question can be answered in 2 ways: n1 = 2
• The 2nd question can be answered in 2 ways: n2 = 2
• The 3rd question can be answered in 2 ways: n3 = 2
• The 4th question can be answered in 2 ways: n4 = 2
• The 5th question can be answered in 2 ways: n5 = 2
• Then, the number of ways the five questions can be

answered is
n1 * n2 * n3 * n4 * n5 = 2*2*2*2*2 = 32
• Probability I get all 5 questions right if I guess on all?
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• The lunch special consists of a soup,
sandwich and beverageg for $5.00
• There are 3 different soups, 2 different
sandwiches, and 4 different beverages
• How many different lunch specials?
• A helpful graphical representation of the

sample space is a tree diagram.
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Tree Diagram
Soup (3) Sandwich (2) Drink (4)
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2.1-4 Sampling With or Without

Replacement?
• May need to consider whether the experiment is
d
done with
ith replacement
l t or without
ith t replacement
l t
• 2 cards drawn from deck of 52.

• With replacement the total number of outcomes in
th sample
the l space is
i 52*52 = 2704
• Without replacement the total number of outcomes
in the sample space is 52*51 = 2652
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2.1-4 Permutations
• A permutation of outcomes is an ordered
sequence of the outcomes
– Suppose S={1,2,3} sequences 123, 132, 213, 231, 312,
321 all different (order matters)
• The number of permutations of n different

outcomes is n! (read ‘n
n factorial’)
factorial ) where
n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*….*(2)*(1)
e.g. 6! = 6*5*4*3*2*1 = 720
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2.1-4 Permutations
Permutations of subsets
• The number of permutations of subsets of r
outcomes selected from a set of n different
outcomes is
n!
P =
n
(n − r ))!
r
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2.1-4 Permutations
• How many sets of three medal winners (gold,
silver, bronze) can there be in a 100m dash with
8 runners ?
• Answer:
• P83 = 8!/(8-3)! = 8!/5! = (8)(7)(6) = 336
• We have 8 choices for the gold-medal winner, 7
choices for the silver
silver-medal
medal winner and 6 choices for
the bronze-medal winner.
We can use the multiplication rule to find the answer:

There are 8*7*6 = 336 possible sets of winners.
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2.1-4 Permutations
Permutations of Similar Objects
• The number of n = n1 + n2 + ••• + nr objects of which n1 are
off one type,
t n2 are off a second
d type,
t …, and
d nr are off an rth
type is: n!
n1! n2 ! n3! ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ nr !
• e.g. Taco Bell gets an order for 6 tacos, 3 taco supremes

and 2 burritos. How many different processing sequences
exist?
• SSTTBTTBTTS, BBSSSTTTTTT, SSSTTTBBTTT, …
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2.1-4 Combinations
• A combination of outcomes is an unordered
sequence of the outcomes
– Suppose S={1,2,3} sequences 123, 132, 213, 231, 312,
321 all the same (order does not matter)
• The number of combinations of subsets of r

outcomes selected from a set of n different
outcomes is
⎛n⎞ n!
C = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ =
n
⎝ r ⎠ r!( n − r )!
r
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2.1-4 Combinations
• Determine the number of ways in which a
manufacturer can choose 2 of 7 locations for new
warehouses.
• Back to my lottery question…..

• Lottery ticket consists of 6 numbers (1-40) with no
repeated numbers.
• Probability I win if I buy 1 ticket?
• # outcomes in the sample space?
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Permutations vs Combinations
• More permutations (ordered) or combinations
(unordered) for n objects taken r at a time?
n! ⎛n⎞ n!
Prn = Crn = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ =
(n − r )! ⎝ r ⎠ r!(n − r )!
• How many different orderings of r objects? r!
End of counting techniques. Now back to probabilities….
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2-3 Addition Rules

• Can often find probabilities of joint events (union,
intersection, complement) from probabilities of
individual outcomes or events
• Use Addition Rule to find probability of a union
Remember: Union = ‘OR’ → sum of individual probabilities

P(AUB) > P(A) P(AUB) > P(B)
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2-3 Addition Rules

• 3 car manufacturers were asked to submitted 1 car of each
model they produce for emissions testing.
• Each car either conforms or does not conform to current
emissions standards. Conforms
Yes No
Ford 40 15
•Let A denote the event a car is a Ford GM 50 20
•Let B denote the event a car conformed Toyota 20 5
•Probability a randomly selected car is a Ford

•Probability a randomly selected car is a Ford and conforms
•Probability a randomly selected car is a Ford or conforms
•Probability a randomly selected car is not a Ford and conforms
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Alternative Interpretations of
Probability
• Probability (0.0000 – 1.0000)
– Probability
P b bilit outcome
t 1 occurs
– What is the probability a randomly selected car is a Ford?
• Proportion (0.0000 – 1.0000) 55/150 = 0.36667
– Proportion outcome 1 occurs 0.36667

– What proportion of randomly selected cars are Ford?
• Long-run Percentage (0.0000% - 100.0000%)
– Percentage of time outcome 1 occurs
– What percentage of time is a Ford randomly selected?
36.667%
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2-3 Mutually Exclusive

• Remember
• Therefore P(A∩B)=0 and the addition rule

becomes:
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2-3 Addition Rules

• Rules for probability of 2 events can be
extended for 3 (or more) events
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2-4 Conditional Probability

• Often probabilities need to be reevaluated as
additional information becomes available
• Conditional Probabilities often used
• Written P(B|A)
• Read “probability of event B occurring, given that
event A has already occurred”
• Read “given event A has occurred, the probability
of event B occurring)
• Read “probability of B given A” or “given A, the
probability of B)
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• Let D denote the event that a part is functionally defective
and let F denote the event that a part has a visible surface
flaw.
• The probability that a part is functionally defective, given
that the part has a visible surface flaw denoted P(D|F)
Table 2-3 Parts Classified

Surface Flaws
Yes (event F) No
Defective Yes (event D) 10 18
No 30 342
• Find P(D|F). Find P(F|D). Find P(D’|F). Find P(D|F’).
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• In the previous example, the conditional probabilities were
calculated directly.
• We can also use the formal definition of conditional
probability
• Find P(D|F). Find P(F|D). Find P(D’|F). Find P(D|F’).
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2-5.1 Multiplication Rule

Probability of intersection
• Note: Just a rewrite of conditional probability

formula
Remember: Intersection = ‘AND’ → product of individual

probabilities
P(AUB) < P(A) P(AUB) < P(B)
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2-5.2 Total Probability Rule

• Given probability of event under several conditions
(conditional probabilities). How to find probability of event?
• e.g. Given P(B|A) and P(B|A’).
P(B|A ). How to find P(B)?
• P(B)=P(A∩B) U P(A’∩B)
• Remember multiplication rule:

P(A∩B)=P(B|A)P(A)
• Need P(B|A), P(A),

Figure 2-15 Partitioning an event into two
P(B|A’) and P(A’) mutually exclusive subsets.
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• Total Probability Rule (2 events)
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• Extend to multiple events
• Total Probability Rule (multiple events)
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• Example
g
• The surface roughness of a metal p
part increases
with blade wear. Only 3% of parts made with a
new blade exhibit roughness, 5% of parts made
with a moderately used blade exhibit roughness,
and 9% of parts made with an old blade exhibit
roughness.
• C
Currently
rrentl on shop floor
floor, 30% of blades are ne
new
and 25% of blades are old.
• What proportion of parts made will exhibit
roughness?
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2-6 Independence
• Events are independent if knowledge of one event
occurring (or not occurring) does not effect the
probability of another event occurring
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2-6 Independence
• Batch of 600 manufactured parts. 40 parts are
defective.
• Two parts randomly selected
• Let A = event first part defective
• Let B = event second part defective
• Are the events A and B independent?
• Without replacement
• With replacement
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2-6 Independence
• We often like to assume independence to simplify analysis
• If independent,
p , P(A∩B)
( ) = P(A)P(B)
( ) ( )
• If not independent, P(A∩B) = P(B|A)P(A) or P(A|B)P(B)
• Extend independence to multiple events
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2-6 Independence
• This circuit operates only if there is a path of functional
devices from left to right. The probability each devices fails
is shown. Assume that devices fail independently. What is
the probability the circuit operates?
0.09
0.07
0.08
0 11
0.11
0.13
What if we cannot assume independence?
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2-6 Independence
• Toss a fair coin. The trials are independent (i.e.
knowing what I got on the last toss of the coin (or
ALL previous
i tosses)
t ) does
d NOT affect
ff t probability
b bilit
of next toss)
• Probability on any toss I get a tails? P(T) = ?
• Suppose I have tossed the coin 99 times and got
Tails every time. Probability the 100th time I toss
the coin it will be a Tail (or Head) = 0.5
• Probability of getting the sequence HHHHH?
TTTTT? HTHTH? THTHT? HTTTH? THHHT?
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Independence vs Mutually Exclusive

• NOT the same thing!!!!!
• E
Events
t are independent
i d d t if knowledge
k l d off one eventt
occurring (or not occurring) does not effect the
probability of another event occurring, i.e.
P(A|B)=P(A)
• Events are mutually exclusive if they have no
outcomes in common, i.e. A∩B=Ø
∩ Ø
• Mutually exclusive based on outcomes.
Independence based on probability model.
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Independence vs Mutually Exclusive

• In fact, if 2 events are mutually exclusive they
cannot be independent
• e.g. roll a die.
• Event A = roll an even number {2,4,6}
• Event B = roll an odd number {1,3,5}
• A and B are mutually exclusive.
• P(A)=0.5 and P(B)=0.5.
• If A and B were independent then P(A|B)=P(A) however
P(A|B) = 0 ≠ 0.5
• A and B are mutually exclusive but not independent
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2-7 Bayes’ Theorem

• Often information presented in terms of one conditional
probability, but we are interested in another conditional prob
• Bayes’
B ’ Th
Theorem ffor 2 events
t
• Bayes’ Theorem for multiple events
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• Cars are assembled in one of 4 possible locations.
• Plant I supplies
pp 20% of the cars;; Plant II 24%;;
Plant III 25%, and Plant IV 31%.
• Each new car has a one year warranty. The

following data has been collected regarding
warranty claims:
P(claim | plant I) = 0.05 P(claim | plant II) = 0.11

P(claim | plant III) = 0.03 P(claim | plant IV) = 0.08
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• Suppose a customer walks into a car dealer and
buys a car – the customer does not know which
plant the car came from.
1. What is the probability a customer purchases a

car from plant I and that it does not require a claim
on its warranty?
•Find ?
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EM 561 GW DePuy 73

2. Probability a claim on the warranty will be made on a
customer’s car ?
• Find ?
3. Suppose a customer makes a claim on their warranty,

what is the probability the car was made at Plant I?
• Find ?
4. Suppose a customer does not make a claim on their

warranty, what is the probability the car was made at Plant
III?
• Find ?
EM 561 GW DePuy 74
Chapter 2 Probability
• End of new concepts in chapter 2
• So far, not too difficult to know which formula to
use for examples
• HOWEVER in real world (and on test) you will
have to decide which formula(s) to use
• Let’s do some ‘random access’ practice problems
– Write down what you know (given info)
– Write down what you are looking for
– Then maybe easier to see how to get from what you
know to what you are looking for
37
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Review of some probability rules

• Addition Rule
• P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)
• Multiplication Rule
• P(A∩B) = P(B|A) P(A) = P(A|B) P(B)
• Total Probability Rule
• P(B) = P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|A’) P(A’)
• Bayes Theorem
• P(A|B) = P(B|A) P(A) / P(B)
EM 561 GW DePuy 76
More Chapter 2 Examples

• The probability an aluminum can has a flaw on its
side is 0.02, the probability the can has a flaw on
the top is 0.03, and the probability the can has a
flaw on both the side and top is 0.01.
1. What is the probability a randomly chosen can
has a flaw?
2 What is the probability the can has no flaw?
2.
3. What is the probability the can has a flaw on the
top but not the side?
38
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• A particular model of car can be made with any of 3
engine sizes. Of all cars sold, 45% have the smallest
engine 35% have the medium-sized
engine, medium sized engine
engine, and 20%
have the largest engine. Of cars with the smallest engine,
10% fail an emissions test within 2 years of purchase,
while 12% of those with the medium and 15% of those
with the largest engine fail.
1 What is the probability a randomly chosen car will fail an

1.
emissions test within 2 years?
2. A record for a failed emission test is chosen at random.
What is the probability it is for a car with a small engine?
EM 561 GW DePuy 78

• A lot (batch) of 50 spacing washers contains 30 washers
that are thicker than the target dimension. Suppose that
three washers are selected at random, without
replacement from the lot
replacement, lot.
1. What is the probability all three washers are thicker than

the target?
2. What is the probability the third washer selected is thicker
than the target if the first two washers selected are not
thicker than the target?
3. What is the probability the third washer selected is thicker
than the target?
39
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• Need more Chapter 2 examples?
• READ THE BOOK!
• We covered all sections of Chapter 2
EM 561 GW DePuy 80
2-8 Random Variables

• We often summarize the outcome from an
experiment by a simple number.
• Sample Space can be description of outcome OR
often useful to associate a number with each
outcome.
• Random variable associates a number with the
outcome of a random experiment
40
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2-8 Random Variables
IE 360 GW DePuy 82
41
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3-1 Discrete Random Variables

• Remember: Random Variable is a function that assigns a
number to each outcome in the sample space of a random
experiment.
• Example: Toss a coin 3 times. Let X= random variable that
represents the Number of Tails. X = { }
• Example: Office has 10 phone lines. Let X = r.v. that
represents the number of lines in use. X= { }
• Example: Batch of 200 parts contain 6 that do not conform
to customer specification
specification. Parts are selected successively
successively,
without replacement, until the first nonconforming part is
obtained. Let X = r.v. that represents the number of parts
selected until the first nonconforming part is obtained. X =
{ }
EM 561 GW DePuy 84
3-2 Probability Distributions

• The probability distribution of a random
variable X is a description of the probabilities
associated with the possible values of X
Probability Distributions
Discrete Distribution Continuous Distribution
General Negative General Uniform

Binomial
Uniform Normal
Binomial Exponential
Poisson
Geometric
42
3-2 Probability Distributions and
EM 561 GW DePuy 85
Probability Mass Functions

• The probability distribution of a random variable
X is a description of the probabilities associated
with
ith the
th possible
ibl values
l off X
• Distribution can be specified by a list of possible
values and their probabilities OR a formula
• Example: Toss a coin 3 times. Let X= random
variable that represents the Number of Tails
• P(0) = P(HHH) = (.5)(.5)(.5) = 0.125
• P(1) = P(THH)+P(HTH)+P(HHT) = 0.375
• P(2) = P(TTH)+P(THT)+P(HTT) = 0.375
• P(3) = P(TTT) = 0.125

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• Example: Toss a coin 3 times.

times Let X=
X random variable that
represents the Number of Tails
X 0 1 2 3
f(x) 0.125 0.375 0.375 0.125 Σf(x) = 1?
43
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• Batch of 5 parts: 3 good and 2 bad
• You keep drawing a part (without
replacement) until you get a bad part
• Let X = # of draws to get a bad part
• Possible values of X?
• Probability mass function of X?
3-3 Cumulative Distribution

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Functions
• Definition
• Cumulative Distribution Function, F(x), for

previous example?
44
3-4 Mean and Variance of a
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Discrete Random Variable

• Use Mean and Variance to summarize probability
distribution of rv
• Mean is measure of center of distribution
• Variance is measure of spread or dispersion of distribution

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• Mean = balance point of loading
• Longer
L arrows iindicate
di t higher
hi h probability
b bilit
• Equal means but unequal variances
45
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• Mean of this distribution? x 2 3 5 10
f(x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7
2 + 3 + 5 + 10
E ( x) = = 5.0 ??? NO !! Why?
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
E ( x) = ∑ xf ( x) = 2(0.1) + 3(0.1) + 5(0.1) + 10(0.7) = 8.0

x

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• Variance of this distribution? x 2 3 5 10
f(x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
∑ ( x − E ( x) )
V ( x) = 2
f ( x)
x
V ( x) = ( 2 − 8) 2 (0.1) + (3 − 8) 2 (0.1) + (5 − 8) 2 (0.1) + (10 − 8) 2 (0.7) = 9.8
46
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Variance of discrete r.v. (alternative formula)
• Var(X)
V (X) = E(X2) – (E(X))2
• Where E(X2) = ∑x2 P(X=x)
• Remember E(X) = ∑x P(X=x)
Both variance and standard deviation are a measure

of spread or dispersion of the data.
Standard deviation is in the same units as the data
whereas variance is in units2

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• Mean and variance DO NOT uniquely describe a
distribution.
– Different distributions can have the same mean and
variance
• However they are simple, useful summaries of the

probability distribution.
47
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• Batch of 5 parts: 3 good and 2 bad
• You keep drawing a part (without
replacement) until you get a bad part
• Let X = # of draws to get a bad part
• Find Mean and Variance of X
EM 561 GW DePuy 96


Binomial
Uniform Normal
Poisson
Geometric
48
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• Probability Mass Functions for Common Discrete
Probability Distributions (uniform discrete,
binomial, geometric, negative binomial, poisson)
exhibit same basic properties as general p.m.f.
• 0 ≤ f(x) ≤ 1
• Σf(x) = 1
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3-5 Discrete Uniform Distribution

• Definition and Probability Mass Function
• Each outcome equally likely
49
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• Example: Thickness of plate glass parts
measured to nearest mm. The thicknesses
are uniformly distributed between 42mm
and 49mm.
1. Probability a part measures 45mm?
2. Probability a part is less than 47mm thick?
3. Find the mean and variance of the plate
thickness
50
EM 561 GW DePuy 101
3-6 Binomial Distribution

Bernoulli Trial
• Experiment
E i t with
ith only
l 2 possible
ibl outcomes
t
– Yes/No, Go/No Go, Pass/Fail, Defective/Not
Defective, Heads/Tails, Win/Lose, etc.
– We label outcomes ‘success’ and ‘failure’
• Trials are independent
• Probability of a success, p, is constant for
each trial
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• Describes the number of successes, X, in n
Bernoulli trials
51
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• Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution
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Figure 3-8 Binomial distributions for selected values of the

parameters n and p.
Binomial Distribution described by 2 parameters, n and p
52
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• Example: The quality control department inspects
parts. Historically 10% of parts are defective.
Each day 12 parts are randomly selected for
inspection.
1. What is the probability 4 parts are defective?
2. What is the probability more than 2 parts are
defective?
3. What is the expected number of defective parts?
EM 561 GW DePuy 106
3-7.1 Geometric Distribution

• Describes the number of Bernoulli trials, X, until
the first success
• Mean and Variance of Geometric Distribution
53
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Figure 3-9. Geometric distributions for selected values of the

parameter p.
EM 561 GW DePuy 108

• My car’s engine starts successfully on a
given attempt with probability
g y of 0.75.
1. Probability the engine starts in 3 or fewer

attempts?
2 Expected number of attempts required to
2.
start the engine?
54
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3-7.2 Negative Binomial Distribution

• Describes the number of Bernoulli trials, X, until r
success occur
EM 561 GW DePuy 110

• Mean and Variance of Negative Binomial
Distribution
55
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Figure 3-10. Negative binomial distributions for selected

values of the parameters r and p.
EM 561 GW DePuy 112

• Example: Suppose a company wishes to
hire 3 new workers,, and that each applicant
pp
interviewed has a probability of 0.6 of being
found acceptable.
1. Probability more than 6 applicants will need
to be interviewed?
2. Expected number of interviews required?
56
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3-9 Poisson Distribution

• Not related to Bernoulli trials
• Poisson distribution describes the number of
events that occur in an interval
• Interval could be time, distance, area, volume, etc.
• Count the number of events in an interval
• # particles contaminating a semiconductor wafer
• # blemishes in 1 ft3 concrete
• # logons to computer site in 1 minute
• # customers to arrive to a bank in 1 hour
EM 561 GW DePuy 114

57
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• Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution
λ is average rate of occurrence of event

λ is average rate expressed in # / interval (i.e.
#/hour, #/mm, #/kg, etc.)
EM 561 GW DePuy 116
Figure 3-14. Poisson distributions for selected values of parameter λ.
58
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• Caution! Use Consistent Units
• Must use consistent units in calculation of probabilities,
means and variances involving Poisson distribution
means,
• If you are interested in probability of X events occurring in
interval, then λ must be expressed as rate for same interval
• If X = # logons to computer site in 1 minute, then λ is avg. logon
rate in 1 minute
• If X = # logons
g to computer
p site in 8 minutes,, then λ is avg.
g logon
g
rate in 8 minutes
• If X = # logons to computer site in 2 hours, then λ is avg. logon rate
in 2 hours
• Need to convert λ to proper units
EM 561 GW DePuy 118

• Suppose customers arrive at a bank according
to a Poisson distribution with mean rate 4
customers per 15 minutes
minutes.
1. Probability less than three customers arrive in a

15 minute interval?
2 P
2. Probability
b bilit more th
than 2 customers
t arrive
i d during
i
a 30 minute interval?
3. Probability 14 customers arrive between
10:00am and 11:00am?
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EM 561 GW DePuy 119
How to do pmf calculations in Minitab

• Minitab can calculate P(X=x) for Binomial,
Geometric, Negative Binomial, & Poisson
distributions
• Enter x values in Minitab worksheet
Calc Minitab 15 English.lnk
Probability Distribution
Choose Probability Distribution (Binomial,
Geometric, Poisson, etc)
• Choose ‘Probability’
• Enter Parameter(s)
• Enter/Choose Input Column
EM 561 GW DePuy 120
• Enter x values in
Minitab worksheet
60
EM 561 GW DePuy 121
Calc
Probability
Distribution
Choose Probability
Distribution (e.g.
Poisson)
• Choose Probability
• Enter Parameter
• Enter/Choose
Input Column
EM 561 GW DePuy 122
• P(X=x) values
displayed in
Sessions Window
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EM 561 GW DePuy 123
How to do pmf calculations in Excel

• Excel can calculate P(X=x) for Binomial & Poisson
distributions
• = poisson(x, mean, cumulative)
• Find P(X=4) for Poisson with λ=7
• = poisson(4, 7, FALSE)
• = binomdist(x,
( , trials,, prob
p _success,, cumulative))
• Find P(X=5) for Binomial with n=10 and p=0.3
• = binomdist(5, 10, .3, FALSE)
EM 561 GW DePuy 124
62
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More Chapter 3 Problems

• A test of weld strength involves loading welded
joints until a fracture occurs. For a certain type
of weld, 80% of the fractures occur in the weld
itself, while the other 20% occur in the beam.
Assume the location of fractures is independent
from test to test.
1. What is the probability fewer than 5 weld
fractures will be found in 9 tests?
2. What is the probability more than 3 beam
fractures will be found in 7 tests?
3. What is the probability 5 weld fracture will be
found in 9 or fewer tests?
EM 561 GW DePuy 128

• The number of messages received by a
computer bulletin board is a Poisson r.v.
with a mean of 7 messages per minute.
1. What is the probability 5 or fewer messages
are received in a minute?
2 What is the probability more than 50
2.
messages are received in 5 minutes?
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EM 561 GW DePuy 129

• 1k, 3k, and 5k ohm resistors have been sampled
from the production line and sent to QC for
t ti
testing. A tub
t b off 50 resistors
i t (25 1k ohm,
h 15 3k
ohm, 10 5k ohm) needs to be tested. The QC
technician randomly, sequentially selects 2
resistors from the tub. Let X represent the
number of 5k ohm resistors among the two
selected resistors.
1. Find the probability distribution for X
2. What is the probability both of the selected
resistors are 5k ohm?
EM 561 GW DePuy 130

• READ THE BOOK!
• We covered all sections of Chapter 3
65
IE 360 GW DePuy 131
EM 561 GW DePuy 132
4-1 Continuous Random Variables

• Remember: Random Variable is a function that
assigns a number to each outcome in the sample
space of a random experiment
experiment.
66
EM 561 GW DePuy 133

Binomial
Uniform Normal
Poisson
Geometric

EM 561 GW DePuy 134
Probability Density Functions

• The probability distribution of a random variable
X is a description of the probabilities associated
with the possible values of X
• Distribution can be specified by a formula
Figure 4-2 Probability determined from the area under f(x).
67
EM 561 GW DePuy 135

• Definition
• Same general idea as discrete distribution, now integrate

instead of sum

EM 561 GW DePuy 136

• Example: The probability density function of
the net weight (in lbs) of a can of chemical
herbicide is f(x) = 2.0 for 49.75<x<50.25
• What is the probability a can weighs less
than 50.1 lbs?
68
EM 561 GW DePuy 137

• For continuous r.v. does not make sense to talk
about probability of a particular outcome occurring
occurring,
but rather a range of outcomes
• Probability an exact outcome occurs = 0
• Example: Let X= weight of herbicide can (in lbs)

• P(X<50.1) = P(X ≤ 50.1) = 0.70
IE 360 GW DePuy 138
4-3 Cumulative Distribution Function

• Definition
• Example: Cumulative distribution function for

herbicide
⎧ 0 x < 49.75
⎪
F ( x) = ⎨2.0 x 49.75 ≤ x ≤ 50.25
⎪ 1 50.25 ≤ x
⎩
69
EM 561 GW DePuy 139
Continuous Random Variable

• Definition
EM 561 GW DePuy 140

Continuous Random Variable
• Example: The probability density function of
the net weight (in lbs) of a can of chemical
herbicide is f(x) = 2.0 for 49.75<x<50.25
• Find Mean and Variance of net weight of
cans of herbicide
70
EM 561 GW DePuy 141
4-5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

• Definition
• Mean and Variance
EM 561 GW DePuy 142
Fi
Figure 4 8 Continuous
4-8 C ti uniform
if probability
b bilit density
d it function.
f ti
Area under the curve = ?

Area of rectangle = length * height
71
EM 561 GW DePuy 143

• A new battery supposedly with a charge of 1.5
volts actually has a voltage with a uniform
di t ib ti b
distribution between
t 1
1.43
43 and
d1 1.60
60 volts.
lt
1. Probability the battery has a voltage less than
1.53 volts?
2. Probability the battery has a voltage higher than
1.47 volts?
3. Expected or mean voltage?
4. Suppose the specification for batteries is 1.5 ±
0.04 volts. What proportion of batteries are out of
spec?
EM 561 GW DePuy 144
4-6 Normal Distribution

History
• Most widely used distribution
• The sum or average of random variables
becomes normal as n→large (Central Limit
Theorem)
• proved by De Moivre in 1733 (lost for 100 years)
• Re-discovered by Gauss (Gaussian distribution)
• Many items in nature are result of the sum of
RV’s
• We’ll discuss Central Limit Theorem later. Now
let’s learn how to calculate probabilities for a
normal r.v.
72
EM 561 GW DePuy 145

• Definition
Normal Distribution has 2 parameters: μ and σ2
EM 561 GW DePuy 146
4 10 Normal
Figure 4-10
Fi N l probability
b bilit density
d it functions
f ti for
f
selected values of the parameters μ and σ2.
Notation used: N(μ,σ2)

above e.g. N(5,1); N(5,4); N(15,1)
73
EM 561 GW DePuy 147

• Normal Distribution is a symmetric distribution
EM 561 GW DePuy 148

• How to find probabilities for normal r.v.?
• Integrate
g f(x)?
( )
• Use Tables
• How many possible normal distributions?
– How many tables?
• One special normal distribution, standard normal
distribution N(0,1)
N(0 1)
– One table ☺
• Convert any normal X~N(μ,σ2) r.v. to standard
normal Z~N(0,1) r.v. and use standard normal
table
74
EM 561 GW DePuy 149
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• First let’s practice using standard normal table.
• Then we’ll
we ll talk about how to convert any normal
X~N(μ,σ2) r.v. to standard normal Z~N(0,1) r.v.
(called standardizing)
• Table III in back of book
– Shows cumulative probabilities for standard normal
distribution e.g. P(Z<z)
• Remember normal distribution is symmetric
75
EM 561 GW DePuy 151
EM 561 GW DePuy 152
Be careful reading
table!
First page reads 0.09
to 0.00, second page
reads
d 00.00
00 tto 0
0.09
09
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EM 561 GW DePuy 153

1. P(Z < 1.56)
2. P(Z
( < -0.86)) Helpful hint & reminders:
3. P(Z > -1.37) • Draw a picture

4. P(Z > 2.12) • Norm Dist is symmetric
5. P(-1.25 < Z < 0.37) • Total area under curve = 1
6. P(0.22 < Z < 3.02) • Table gives P(Z<z)
7. P(Z < -4.3)
8. find the value of z such that P(Z > z) = 0.01
9. find the value of z such that P(-z < Z < z) = 0.95
EM 561 GW DePuy 154

• We know how to use standard normal table.
• N
Now, h
how tto convertt any normall X N( 2) r.v. to
X~N(μ,σ t
standard normal Z~N(0,1) r.v. (called
standardizing)
77
IE 360 GW DePuy 155

X −μ
Z=
σ
• Standardizing finds the # of standard
deviations(σ) X is from its mean (μ)
• Remember: Z~N(0,1)
Z~N(0 1) ii.e.
e μ=0 and σ=1
• Z = 1.3 is 1.3 standard deviations above μ=0
• Z = -0.4 is 0.4 standard deviations below μ=0
EM 561 GW DePuy 156

• X~N(10,4). Find P(X < 13)
• Z = (13 – 10)/2 = 1.5
15
• P(X < 13) = P(Z < 1.5) = 0.933193
78
EM 561 GW DePuy 157

• Example: Suppose X ~ N(5.2, 3.9)
1 Find
1. Fi d P(X < 4
4.8)
8)
2. Find P(X > 8.0)
3. Find P(2.0 < X < 5.0)
EM 561 GW DePuy 158

• The thickness of glass sheets produced by a
certain process are normally distributed with a
mean off 3.00mm
3 00 and a standard deviation off
0.12mm
1. Probability a glass sheet is thinner than 3.15mm?
2. Probability a glass sheet is thicker than 2.78mm?
3. Probability a glass sheet’s thickness is between
2.95 and 3.09mm?
79
EM 561 GW DePuy 159
4-8 Exponential Distribution

• Definition
• Mean
M and
dVVariance
i
EM 561 GW DePuy 160
Exponential distribution has 1 parameter: λ
80
EM 561 GW DePuy 161

• Exponential distribution is related to Poisson distribution
• If the number of events is distributed Poisson, then the
ti
time b
between
t events
t iis E
Exponentially
ti ll di
distributed
t ib t d
Number of events ~ P(λ)
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5
f ( xi ) = λe − λxi
EM 561 GW DePuy 162

• Often easier to work with cumulative distribution
function for exponential distribution rather than
integrating for each problem
Cumulative Distribution Function for Exponential Distribution
F(x) = P(X ≤ x) = 1 – e-λx for x≥0
• Be careful to use consistent units for X and λ

• If λ in minutes, then X in minutes
• If λ in cm, then X in cm
81
EM 561 GW DePuy 163

• Suppose customers arrive at a bank according to
a Poisson distribution with mean rate 16
customers
t per hour.
h
1. What is the probability the time until the next
customer arrives is less than 10 minutes?
2. What is the probability the time until the next
customer arrives is more than 15 minutes?
3. What is the probability the next customer will
arrive in 2 to 3 minutes?
4. What is the average time between customer
arrivals?
EM 561 GW DePuy 164

• An interesting property of an exponential random variable
is the lack of memory property.
• suppose no bank customers arrive from 12:00 to 12:15

• the pprobability
y that no customer arrive from 12:15 to 12:30
(i.e. 15 minutes) is still 0.018316.
• Because we have already been waiting for 15 minutes, we
feel that we are “due.” That is, the probability of an arrival
in the next 15 minutes should be greater than 0.018316.
However, for an exponential distribution this is not
true.
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Lack of Memory Property
• Suppose an electronic component fails due to voltage
surges. The time in hours between voltage surges follows
an exponential distribution with λ = 0.2 hr = 1 failure/5
hours. i.e. the expected time between failures is 1/λ = 5
hours
• Suppose an electronic component has been operational for
3 hours, how much longer would you expect the electronic
component to be operational?
• Suppose an electronic component has been operational for
40 hours, how much longer would you expect the
electronic component to be operational?
EM 561 GW DePuy 166

Lack of Memory Property
• The memoryless property of the exponential
distrib tion makes it attractive
distribution attracti e for modeling many
man
processes, however it is unsuitable for modeling
other processes.
• If an electronic component fails due to random
voltage surges then it may be appropriate to
model the failure time with an exponential
distribution.
• However, if the failure of an electronic component
is due to wearout, then the exponential distribution
would not be appropriate to model failure times.
83
EM 561 GW DePuy 167
How to do cdf calculations in Minitab

• Minitab can calculate P(X<x) for Normal, Uniform,
and Exponential distributions
• Enter x values in Minitab worksheet
Calc Minitab 15 English.lnk
Choose Probability Distribution (Normal,
Uniform, Exponential)
• Choose ‘Cumulative Probability’
• Enter Parameter(s)
• Enter/Choose Input Column
EM 561 GW DePuy 168
• Enter x values in
Minitab worksheet
84
EM 561 GW DePuy 169
Calc
Choose Probability
Distribution (e.g.
Normal)
• Choose Cumulative
Probability
• Enter Parameters
• Enter/Choose Input
Column
Note: For Normal Distr.,

enter st. dev. not variance
EM 561 GW DePuy 170
• P(X<x) values
displayed in
Sessions Window
85
EM 561 GW DePuy 171
How to do cdf calculations in Excel

• Excel can calculate P(X<x) for Normal &
Exponential distributions
• = NORMDIST(x,mean,standard_dev,cumulative)
• Find P(X<4.8) for N(5.2, 3.9)
• = normdist(4.8, 5.2, 1.97484, true)
• = EXPONDIST(x,lambda,cumulative)
EXPONDIST(x lambda cumulative)
• Find P(X<10) for Expo with λ=0.26667
• = expondist(10, 0.26667, true)
EM 561 GW DePuy 172
How to do cdf calculations in Excel
86
EM 561 GW DePuy 173

• The compressive strength of samples of cement
can be modeled by a normal distribution with a
/ 2 and
mean off 5800 kkg/cm d a standard
t d dd deviation
i ti off
2
150 kg/cm .
1. What is the probability that a sample’s strength is
less than 6200 kg/cm2?
2 What is the probability that a sample’s

2. sample s strength is
between 5900 and 6000 kg/cm2?
3. What strength is exceeded by 95% of the

samples?
EM 561 GW DePuy 174

• The number of taxi arrivals at an
intersection is Poisson distributed with
mean of 6 taxi arrivals per hour
hour.
1. What is the probability you wait longer than 1

hour for a taxi?
2. Suppose
pp yyou have alreadyy been waiting g 1 hour
for a taxi, what is the probability a taxi arrives in
the next 20 minutes?
3. What is the probability 5 taxis arrive at the
intersection during the next 30 minutes?
87
EM 561 GW DePuy 175

• Suppose the time it takes a hematology
cell counter to complete
p a test on a blood
sample is uniformly distributed between 50
and 75 seconds.
1. What is the probability a test requires more
than 70 seconds to complete?
2. What percentage of the tests require less
than 60 seconds to complete?
EM 561 GW DePuy 176

• READ THE BOOK!
• We covered all sections 4-1 thru 4-8 except
4-7
88
EM 561 GW DePuy 177
Test #1 here
• Open book
• Open
O notes
t
• Bring a calculator
• No talking/communicating
• Covers Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4
89

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IE 360

Probability and Statistics for

• Wide variety of statistical software tools

Help students gain an understanding of the

Science of chance, Science of data

How to mathematically model the system and its

• Now more than 1 employee needed

2-1.2 Sample Spaces

• Sample space for roll of 1 die?

• Discrete or Continuous sample space?

2-1.2 Sample Spaces

• B is the event I draw a 4

• Determine the number of car models in A

• Example: Deck of 52 cards.

CANNOT have a probability >1 or <0

CANNOT have a probability >1 or <0

• P(O1) + P(O2) + P(O3) + • • • + P(On) = 1

• P(outcome O1 OR outcome O2 ) >? <? P(outcome O1)

• Choose 1 card from a deck of 52. Probability I choose the

In the above examples, each outcome is equally likely.

2.1-4 Counting number of

2.1-4 The Multiplication Rule

• If an experiment consists of a sequence of k

2.1-4 The Multiplication Rule

• Then, the number of ways the five questions can be

2.1-4 The Multiplication Rule

• A helpful graphical representation of the

2.1-4 Sampling With or Without

• 2 cards drawn from deck of 52.

• The number of permutations of n different

We can use the multiplication rule to find the answer:

• e.g. Taco Bell gets an order for 6 tacos, 3 taco supremes

• The number of combinations of subsets of r

• Back to my lottery question…..

• How many different orderings of r objects? r!

End of counting techniques. Now back to probabilities….

2-3 Addition Rules

• Use Addition Rule to find probability of a union

Remember: Union = ‘OR’ → sum of individual probabilities

2-3 Addition Rules

•Probability a randomly selected car is a Ford

– Proportion outcome 1 occurs 0.36667

2-3 Mutually Exclusive

• Therefore P(A∩B)=0 and the addition rule

2-3 Addition Rules

2-4 Conditional Probability

2-4 Conditional Probability

Table 2-3 Parts Classified

• Find P(D|F). Find P(F|D). Find P(D’|F). Find P(D|F’).

2-4 Conditional Probability

• Find P(D|F). Find P(F|D). Find P(D’|F). Find P(D|F’).

2-5.1 Multiplication Rule

• Note: Just a rewrite of conditional probability

Remember: Intersection = ‘AND’ → product of individual

2-5.2 Total Probability Rule

• Remember multiplication rule:

• Need P(B|A), P(A),

2-5.2 Total Probability Rule

2-5.2 Total Probability Rule

2-5.2 Total Probability Rule

• Extend independence to multiple events

What if we cannot assume independence?

Independence vs Mutually Exclusive