Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by
September 2010
Flood plain modelling based on TRMM 3b42 satellite rainfall.
Summary
The extensive flood damages sustained worldwide cost approximately 20 billions f: a year.
mitigation and defences. The key to minimizing the damages lies in the precision of the
prediction of the flood extent and dynamic. The present study explores the error propagation
from satellite rainfall estimates into the modelling of the flood plain extent in the Semois
basin (Belgium). The area near Villers-sur-Semois (49.69° Lat N, 5.56° Long E, 5.8 ha) has
been modelled with a ID2D software suites (ISIS free) forced with discharge inputs from 3
different sources : the observed gauged flow, the simulated flow based on rain gauges data
and the simulated flow based on the 3b42 v6. multi-satellite product of the Tropical Rain
Monitoring Mission (TRMM) providing a rainfall rate every 3hours for a cell size of 0.25
deg. Precipitations were transformed into dischal'ge with the revitalised FSRlFEH rainfall-
runoff method which is part the Flood Estimation Handbook in UK. The flood plain based on
the 3b42 dataappears grossly overestimated (135% of the observed flow flood extent) or
underestimated (50%) depending on the event chosen, c1early dismissing the adequacy of the
dataset. The flood plain modelled with the observed discharge and the one modelled based on
the rain gauge data appear quite similar in their maximum extent but present a different
temporal dynamic. They present a good similarity with the flood risk map pl'epared by the
regional authorities. The modelled flow based on the rain gauges has a Nash Sutcliffe
http://web.me.comlalbert.grelal3b42_flood...J)lain/Welcome.html
Abstract
Abstract
The extensive flood damages sustained worldwide cost approximately 20 billions f a
preparedness, mitigation and defences. The key to minimizing the damages lies in
the precision of the prediction of the flood extent and dynamic. The present study
explores the error propagation from satellite rainfall estimates into the modelling of
the flood plain extent in the Semois basin (Belgium). The area near Villers-sur-
Semois (49.69° Lat N, 5.56° Long E , 5.8 ,ha) has been modelled with a ID2D
software suites (ISIS free) forced with discharge inputs from 3 different sources: the
observed gauged flow, the simulated flow based on rain gauges data and the
simulated flow based on the 3b42 v6. multi-satellite product of the Tropical Rain
Monitoring Mission (TRMM) providing a rainfall rate every 3hours for a cell size of
0.25 deg. Rain were transformed into discharge with the revitalised FSRlFEH
rainfall-runoff method which is part the Flood EstimatIon Handbook in UK. The
flood plain based on the 3b42 data appears grossly overestimated (135% of the
chosen, clearly dismissing the adequacy of the dataset. The flood plain modelled
with the observed discharge and the one modelled based on the rain gauge data
appear quite similar in their maximum extent but present a different temporal
dynamic. They present a good similarity with the flood risk map prepared by the
regional authorities. The modelled flow based on the rain gauges has a Nash
modelled.
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
My deepest gratitude is due to my supervisor Dr. Tim Bellerby, University of Hull who
corrected many ofmy misunderstanding regarding the 3b42 rain product and helped me to
focus my efforts torward sorne achievable aims.
1 would have remained clueless about flood modelling without the careful tutoring of Dr.
Matt Horris and Dr. Mark Bailes from Halcrow. They are great trainers and very
experienced modellers.
Professor Keith Beven from Lancaster University de serves a special mention here. His
books have been a real guiding light in the complex world of hydrological uncertainties. 1
like to express my admiration for the depth of his knowledge and his very pedagogic writing
style. .
1 got excellent response and supply of data and information from Eng. Phillipe Dierickx
from "Direction de la Gestion hydrologique intégrée, Service Public de Wallonie" and Eng.
Didier de Thysebaert "Direction des Cours d'Eau non navigables - Service Public de
Wallonie". They both de serve my sincere thanks.
Dave Brooks, Alex Duke, John Goodman, Alan Wright, Geoff Watson, Martin Burton,
Gerry Stephenson from the Cottingham Flood Action group were excellent guide in the
intricate world of flood defence planning in UK. They provided me a lot of inspiration and
their courage and resilience was contagious. They kept me sane and focussed.
Professeur Philippe Lejeune from the University of Liège with whom 1 graduated 26 years
ago shared his experience with various data set. He provided sorne useful advice and
companionship.
Philippe Hellemans from Ge06 is an other classmate tumed GIS expert, he shared his
experience with GIS dedicated to crisis management. He helped me to remain practical and
realistic.
Last but not least my daughter Shivata and wife Ragini de serve my most profound gratitude
for their patience and encouragement.
Table of content
Content
1.2 THE FLOOD PLAIN, THE RUNOFF AND THE SATElLITE ............................................................................. 2
2 LITERATURE REVlEW............................................................................................................... 4
3 METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................................... 59
3.6 THE CHOICE OF PASSIVE-MICROWAVE- AND INFRARED-BASED SATElLITE RAINFALL DATA ........................... 64
3.9 A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE REFH PACKAGE OPERATION & PARAMETERS PREPARATION ....................... 65
11
Table of content
3.10.4 Comparison between 3b42 pixel and individual rain gauges .................................. 69
3.17 RUNNING THE ISIS 10 20 WITH THE VARIOUS FLOOD EVENTS ........................................................ 81
4.2 COMPARISONS OF INVERSE DISTANCE WEIGHTED RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE SEMOIS WATERSHED .............. 85
111
Table of content
4.3 COMPARISONS OF INVERSE DISTANCE WEIGHTED RAINFAll FOR THE ST MARIE-SUR-SEMOIS CATCH MENT... 85
5.6 PROPAGATION OF ERROR AND RECOMMENDATION FOR lOCAL OBSERVATIONS ...................................... 106
lV
List of tables
List of tables
Table 10 : Google Scholar hits for 3b42 & hydrological models, flood, runoff ........ 53
Table 17 : Nbr of 3 hours period > 0 mm of acc. rainfall- Flood periods ................ 87
Table 20 : Nbr of 3 hours period > 0 mm of acc. rainfall- inter flood periods ......... 88
v
List of tables
Table 25 : Ratio ofFLl et FL2 flood extent with a depth superior to 30 cm and area
Vi
List of figures
List of figures
Figure 2 : A schematic outline of the different steps in the modelling process ......... 11
rainfalls. (a) Infiltration excess overland flow (Horton, 1933). (b) Partial area
infiltration excess overland flow (Betson, 1964). (c) Saturation excess overland
(Cappus~ 1960~ Dunne and Blac~ 1970). (d) Subsurface stormflow (Hursh~ 1936~
Hewlett, 1961). (e) Perched saturation and' throughflow (Weyman, 1970) ............... 25
Figure 7 : GHCN-Monthly Coverage Map for Precipitation (Burroughs, 2008) ...... .42
vu
List of figures
Figure 27: FL1 Maximum stages Rain Gauged Modelled & Gauged Flow ............. 95
Figure 28 : FL 1 Maximum stages: 3b42 Modelled Flow & Gauged Flow .............. 96
Figure 29: FL2 - Maximum stages - Rain gauges modelled & Gauged Flow .......... 97
Figure 31 : FL2 Maximum stages 3b42 modelled & Gauged Flow ........................... 98
Figure 33 : FLI Flood extent with a depth of at least 30 cm and official flood risk
Figure 34 : FL2 Flood extent with a depth of at least 30 cm and official flood risk
Vlll
List of abbreviations and acronyms
Acronym Signification
Adjusted Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Precipitation
AGPI Index (AGPI)]
ALTBAR Mean altitude of catchment (metres above sea level)
AMSR-E Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS
AM SU Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
AMSU-A Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (on Aqua satellite)
AMSU-B Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (on NOAA satellite)
ASPBAR Mean direction of aU drainage path slopes (bearing in degrees)
ASPVAR Invariability of slope d~ections
lX
List of abbreviations and acronyms
x
List of abbreviations and acronyms
Xl
General introduction
1 General introduction
Although the author of the present study is confined by academic rules to present his
work without using the first person, semantic and epistemological demands cannot
avoid the elucidation of the philosophical position used to formulate and credit the
scholars ranging from Edgar Morin(Morin, 1977) and Michel Foucault (Foucault,
1976) to Keith Beven (Beven, 2009) and Noel Castree (Castree et al., 2005).
The Karl Poper's the ory ofverisimilitude (Popper, 1963) is totally embraced by the
effort aims at representing as weIl as possible the reality but the limitations of
observations and computational capacities restrict the "fitting",- as long as the models
allows sorne useful predictions, they should be granted sorne scientific respectability.
(Beven, 2009)
Although a very minimal treatment of the uncertainty could be provided within the
Savenije, 2001) .
1
General introduction
During the decade ending in 2008, the number of people affected by flood reached
1.037 billions according to the World Disaster report 2008(IFRCRCS, 2010). This
year, the flood in China and Pakistan will add 32 millions of displaced
people.(Reliefweb, 2010a, Reliefweb, 2010b). During the last 25 years, the average
annual flood damages exceeds 30 billions USD (Brakenridge, 2010). Prevention and
mitigation are crucial to face this natural disaster only second to food insecurity
(IFRCRCS, 2010). The capacity to model flood plain extent is a key element to
quantify the flood risk, design flood defences and prepare emergency plans. (Néelz
and Great, 2009). This modelling process presuppose the ability to estimate the
discharge in the water course and the surface runoff during a flood event.(Shaw et
al., 2010, Beven, 2004). This estimation is constraint by the availability of weIl
established stream gauges and in the absence of them many plans have been made
2009, Kjeldsen, 2007, Kjeldsen et al., 2006). The recent availability of satellite
((Vazquez and Feyen, 2010, STISEN et al., 2010, Lohani et al., 2010, Harrison et al.,
2009, Sugiura et al., 2009, Valeriano et al., 2009, Su et al., 2008, Collischonn et al.,
2008a, Magome et al., 2008, Werner and Delft, 2005). Although many researches
highlight the importance of flood forecasting only a very few (Fotopoulos et al.,
2010, Magome et al., 2008, Kuszmaul et al., 2008, Hossain et al., 2007, HOSSAIN
et al., 2004) elaborate a real flood detection method and quantify its error and
uncertainty. The present study appears rather original as the impact of the error in
rainfall estimate will be carry over until the ca1culation of the flood extent. Such
2
,, '
General introduction
requires extremely detailed elevation data while the satellite rainfall products are
meant to coyer large swat of land. The exercise offers the possibility to focus the
analysis of the errors into operational values such as the foreseeable extent of the
flood plain. The non-linearity of the rainfall-runoff relation and the specificity of the
topography of the flood plain prevent the estimation of the flood plain error based on
the rainfall error.(Beven, 2006, Beven, 2004, Beven, 1993, Beven, 1989). The
expertise and word count. The literature review in chapter 2 tries to explore briefly
three huge body of sciences and research : the flood modelling techniques, the
rainfall-runoff models and the satellite rainfall product. The methodology presents in
chapter 3 the selection of location and data sets which was based more on practical
constraints than refinement of scientific approach. The task to assemble and process
all the data required was huge and the experience with hydraulic modelling was nil.
A full year may have been spent on the subject without exhausting it. The results are
satisfactory in tenus of internai consistency but dismiss the opportunity to use the
Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission data for flood plain modelling in the 50° lat N.
appropriate option for flood plain modelling. The future satellite rainfall products are
likely to provide much better estimates of rainfall and soi! moisture and should
improve the hydrological modelling particularly for the higher latitude. (NASA,
2010a, Beven, 2009). It is hoped that these improvements will translate in better
management of flood risks and decrease the fatalities observed so sadly during the
summer 2010.
3
Literature review
2 Literature review
The Karl Popper (Popper, 1963) states that the most that could be hoped from a
scientific the ory is a certain degree of verisimilitude. He rates the closeness to Truth
by two factors : truth and content. The more truths that a theory entails (other things
The intention of pragmatic realism is quite simpler : the modelling effort aims at
representing as weIl as possible the reality but the limitations of observations and
computational capacities restrict the "fitting", as long as the rnodels allows sorne
useful predictions it can be granted sorne scientific respectability. "AlI models are
The instrumentalists' views that aIl scientific theories of the past have proven to be
false to sorne extent, convey the idea that the current one will also turn out to be false
too. That does not prevent the enunciations of scientific statements but these are not
the reality. Instrumentalism in that sense is anti-realist especially since it also allows
that sorne statements about the nature ofthings may be subjective. Logically it
derives that the only justification for scientific theorising is empirical adequacy.
(Van Fraassen, 1980, Cartwright, 1983, Haack, 1994, Haack, 2002, Haack, 2003)
systems a given end state can be reached by many potential means. He prefers this
4
Literature review
behaviour. It emphasizes that the same end state may be achieved via many different
between the initial condition and the fmal state of the system. The idea of
equifinality suggests that similar results may be achieved with different initial
conditions and in many different ways. This phenomenon has also been referred to as
The term equifinality has a long history in geomorphology, indicating that similar
histories.(Beven, 1996)
equifinality.(Odoni, 2007)
But the most prolific advocate of the equifinality concept i:p. hydrological modelling
is most likely Keith Beven (Beven, 1996, , 1997, , 1998, Schulz et al., 1999, Zak and
Beven, 1999, Brazier et al., 2000, Beven and Freer, 2001, ,2006) . The origin of the
concept lies in purely empirical studies that have found many models giving good
fits to data. But for many modellers, the optimal model is still an aim that should be
pursue and the present "imperfections" of the model are a step toward the optimal
model(Beven, 2006).
manner.(Beven and Binley, 1992). It intends to focus the attention on the fact that
there are many acceptable representations that cannot be easily rejected and should
5
Literature review
For any particular set. of observation, sorne of the acceptable or behavioural models
will be better in terms of one or more performance measures. But given the sources
of error in the modelling process, the behaviourals models cannot easily be rejected
as feasible representations of the system given the level of error in representing the
therefore rather inevitable because even in case of mathematically perfect model the
errors in the initial conditions, boundary conditions and output measurements leads
information content available to define a modelling problem does not allow a single
The best source regarding recent flood statistics is most likely the Dartmouth Flood
A summary of the available data is presented in Table 1 : Flood damages since 1985
6
Literature review
The damages cost of China and Pakistan floods in 2010, is probably not yet
reflected. UN officiaIs at the end of August 2010 report 14.5 millions displaced in
Pakistan (NydailyNews) and Chinese authorities are estimating the direct economic
The figures presented in this table coyer the last 25 years only. The deadliest flood in
2010)
... "'~-"".""
7
Literature review
The 2007 flood in UK cost around 6 billions GBP with 13 casualties.(pitt, 2007)
These figures leave no doubt about the social priority that flood defence, flood
Searching Google Scholar about flood modelling faces two possible spelling for
Hydrologists seem to prefer flood while engineers may focus on inundation. The
Inundation may be more urban, flood plain, flood extent may be more rural.
The number of hits excluding citation retumed by Google Scholar for the three
The inundation model, model(l)ing has a fast growth during the present decade. The
flood model, model(l)ing is rather stagnating with even a slight dec1ine during the
8
Literature review
present decade but this may just reveal a change of vocabulary rather than a decline
hydrologie cycle. They are primarily used for hydrologie prediction and for
The methods and concepts relating the movement of water segment the hydrological
The flood modelling usually involve two type of modellings : the rainfall-runoff
model helps to derive a discharge from the rainfall (tbis particularly applies to
ungauged catchement) and the hydraulic model use the hydraulic laws to calculate
velocity and water level along the flow path.(O'Connell et al., 1970, Beven, 1993,
AI-Sabhan et al., 2003, Lai, 2005, Bastin et al., 2009, Sugiura et al., 2009, Shaw et
al., 2010).
9
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Literature review
Model Validation:
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good idea but difficult in practice
No
In the modelling process outlined in Figure 2, Beven insists on the initial perceptual
model that he considers more complex that the conceptual model, but he views that
predictions.
The most important concepts of mathematical modelling of shallow water flows are
introduced first in one dimension (St-Venant equations), then in two dimensions
(shallow water equations). Note that the following sections are partly reproduced
from "Desktop review of 2D hydraulic modelling packages" (Néelz and Great, 2009)
dQ + dA = 0 Equation 1
dx dt
Il
Literature review
the longitudinal direction and SI is the friction slope (the slope of the energy
to substitute UA for Q in Equations (1) and (2), expand Equation (2) and
12
Literature review
flow.
The St Venant equations cannot be solved explicitly except by making some very
large assumptions which are unrealistic for most situations. Therefore numerical
techniques have to be used. Three groups of methods are usually used : fmite
difference, fmite elements and finite volumes.(Sleigh and Goodwill, 2000)
Finite difference (FD) methods rely on Taylor series expansions to express the value
taken by a variable (h, u, v and so on) at a given point, as ~ function of the values at
neighbouring points and of local derivatives ofincreasing orders. These Taylor
series are then combined to yield approximate expressions for the derivatives
involved in the shallow water equations, as a function of a fmite number of
neighbouring point values. The accuracy of the approximations can be controlled by
the order to which the Taylor series expansions are developed (the order of the so-
called truncation), which is also linked to the number of neighbouring points
involved. The implementation of finite difference methods is significantly more
straightforward on a structured grid, which is a computational grid that can
effectively be represented on a square matrix. This explains to some extent why their
popularity is currently in decay in the academic community (Alcrudo, 2004), as
unstructured grids lend themselves better to the modelling of environmental flows.
Software packages based on FD methods, however, are popular with a number of
UK consultants, due mainly to their compatibility with high resolution digital terrain
models and digital bathymetric models created from LiDAR and sonar
surveys.(Néelz and Great, 2009)
For the finite element methods, the solution space in divided into a number of
elements in 2D. In each element, the unknown variables are approximated by a linear
combination of piecewise linear functions called trial functions. There are as many
such functions as there are vertices defining the element, and each takes the value of
one at one vertex and the value of zero at all other vertices. A global function based
13
Literature review
In the finite volume methods, space is divided into so-called fmite volume which are
2D (in this context) regions of any geometric shapes. The shallow water equations
(in conservative form) are integrated over each control volume to yield equations in
terms of fluxes through the control volume boundaries. Flux values across a given
boundary (ca1culated using interpolated variables) are used for both control volumes
separated by the boundary, resulting in the theoretically perfect mass and momentum
conservativeness of the approach (a flux into a finite volume through a boundary is
always equal to a flux out of a neighbouring one through the same boundary). In ID,
fmite volume methods are equivalent to fmite difference methods.(Néelz and Great,
2009)
One of the most significant advances in 1D models is the ability to link 1D and 2D
models (Syme, 1991, Evans et al., 2007). This can be applied in various ways:
• within a channel that one wishes to model partly in ID and partly in 2D;
• between a 1D drainage network model and a 2D surface flood model;
• between a 1Driver model and a 2D floodplain model;
• within a mainly 2D model where, for example, cul verts are modelled in ID
linking 2D cells between themselves.(Néelz and Great, 2009)
1
u= [f:l _
G-
[9
huv
h2
hv
+ hv 2
2
'
14
Literature review
Equation 4
respectively. Sox and Soy are the bed slopes in the x and y directions. The friction
formulation, as follows (assuming the use of Manning's n) (Néelz and Great, 2009):
n 2 u .Ju 2 + v 2 n 2 v .Ju 2 + v 2
SIx =- 4 and S,y =- 4 Equation 5
h'J h3
The viscosity is taken into account in more refme formulation but not presented here.
The contribution of the kinematic viscosity to the value of the viscosity coefficient E
is typically at least an order of magnitude smaller than the turbulent eddy viscosity
and for this reason is neglected. The apparent viscosity resulting from non-
uniformity in the horizontal velo city along the vertical direction is recognised as a
much more significant contributor to the value of E (Alcrudo, 2004). However, this
turbulent eddy diffusivity has been the object of more significant research (see Rodi
that the eddy viscosity will have a major effect on model predictions as friction will
dominate. It may however, for flow in and around structures, have a significant
15
Literature review
the 2D diffusion wave equations (Bradbrook et al., 2004). This is appropriate where
the flow is predominantly driven by local water surface slope and momentum effects
are less important, as is often the case in the context ofUK fluvial floodplains. Such
al.(2007).
An important mathematical property of the shallow water equations is that they are
non-linear (they do not satisfy the principle of superposition), in accordance with the
true non-linearity of the flow processes being modelled. One of the implications is
that shallow water flows are subject to shock waves, which are understood to be
discontinuous solutions of the shallow water equations (Toro and Toro, 2001).
Shocks on floodplains are mainly encountered in the form ofhydraulic jumps, that
is, transitions from supercritical to subcritical flows. These may be caused by local
The choice between a 1D and a 2D mode1 is relevant primarily in the context of river
floodplain modelling. The the ory of open channel flow in the form of ID St-Venant
equations is not applicable to urban flood flows where extreme non-uniformity and
fast moving shallow flows (possibly supercritical) and large still ponds, rather than
in the form of channe1s that are weIl defined over long distances. The significance of
storage and recirculation areas that clearly do not fit in a 1D description should not
be underestimated. Besides, urban flows rarely happen along routes that are clearly
identifiable in advance to allow the building of a model and running the simulations
16
Literature review
appropriate can be found, for example, in Lhomme and al. (2006) (deep flooding in a
In river flooding contexts, however, ID (that is, ID models ofrivers with cross-
section extending over lateral floodplains) are appropriate for narrow floodplains,
typically where their width is not larger than three times the width of the main river channel.
The underlying assumption should be that the contribution of the floodplains to conveyance
can be quantified using recent advances in the estimation of compound channel conveyance.
An additional condition for such models to be valid is that the floodplains should not be
separated from the main channel by embankments, levees or any raised ground, where the
channel floodplain unit effectively behaves as a single channel. It is clear that ID river
models have limitations that can become significant in matiy practical applications.(Néelz
and Great, 2009) The flow is assumed to be unidirectional (generally happening in the
direction parallel to the main channel flow), and where this is not true (recirculation areas)
"makes its own way" are frequent, but perhaps an even more significant issue is the fact that
the case of large floodplains. A better balance between the correct representation of
floodplain conveyance and the correct representation of floodplain storage capacity can be
obtained through the use of ID+ models, where large "disconnected" floodplains are
modelled as storage reservoirs (white narrow floodplains can still be mode lied as part of
channel cross sections). This latter modelling approach has its own limitations: exchange
flows between the river and reservoirs and between the reservoirs are typically mode lied
using broad-crested weir equations (Evans et al., 2007), which are not always appropriate.
17
Literature review
Weir equations adapted for drowned (downstream controlled) flows are also used,
but the assumption that water levels are horizontal within each reservoir results in
incorrect water level predictions in the vicinity of reservoir boundaries, often causing
large errors in the predictions of exchange flows. These do not matter if the time
duration of the floodplain filling and draining is srnall cornpared to the duration of
the flood. Lastly, the size and location of floodplain storage cells and links between
thern are user-defined and therefore require sorne a priori understanding of flow
pathways in the floodplain which may result in circular reasoning within models.
The choice of a model type (ID, 2D- or 2D) for surface flow modelling is mostly
two important classes of approaches, namely the one where only floodplains are
modelled in 2D (as part ofa combined ID/2D model) and the one where floodplain
flow and channel flow are modelled as part of the same 2D grid. The main advantage
of 2D modelling (over any other approach for floodplain modelling) are that local
variations of velo city and water levels and local changes in flow direction can be
represented (SYME, 2006). The approach also does not suffer from the limitations of
the 1D and 2D- approaches detailed in the previous paragraphs. It allows in principle
1D/2D models for river and floodplain systems is that the exchange processes
between the river and the floodplains are still modelled crudely (momentum transfer
approach where the whole river and floodplain system is represented as part of a 2D
unstructured grid deserves special attention (see for example Horritt and Bates
18
Literature review
which are intended primarily for 1D models exist for a large proportion rivers in the
UK. Numerous existing ID models have been calibrated using measured data, and
ID Manning's n values are well-known for many rivers or river types. There is
therefore a c1ear incentive to make use of these data and knowledge by continuing to
build 1Driver models or to use existing ones. In addition, the grid resolution needed
explain the current enthusiasm for combined 1D/2D modelling for river and
Department and funded by the joint Environment Agency/Defra Flood and Coastal
The vast majority use the shallow water equations and are commercially available.
Fewer (9) provides the possibility to integrate shock capturing. The possibility to
The theory upon which 2D packages are based suggests that predictions using these
19
Literature review
When simulation of inundation extent for dam break flooding is required, the ability
to model super and subcritical flows may become more crucial and shock wave
TUFLOW, InfoWorks, Mike-Flood and JFLOW are presently the most commonly
used in UK but there was not fundamental cause to reject the other ones. Negotiation
of license, maintenance fees and training cost are open to negotiations ; 10 licences
would cost between ;(15,000 and ;(25,000; the annual maintenance costs are
typically between 10 and 20 per cent of licence costs. The recommended duration of
training courses is two to three days at a cost of around f2,000 for ten participants.
The fastest appears to be MIKE FLOD (DHI, 2010). The only one with a free
20
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0-3
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Name Physics Further information on Shock Developer Status Linkages 0
~
numerical scheme ca pturinÇ) ~
0
FINITE DIFFEREN CE SCHEMES 3
3
TU FLOW SWE Alternatinq Direct . 1mplicit No BMT-\J\J8M Commercial 0Nn 10 river and pipes solver 0
DIVAST SWE Alternatinq Direct . Implicit No Cardiff U niv . Re se arch As part of 1SIS 20 =
N
DIVAST-ND SWE Explicit 1YD- MacCormack Yes Cardiff U niv . Re se arch 0
ISIS2D SWE Altematina Direct . Imolicit No Halcrow Commercial Own 10 river solver "0
~
MIKE 21 SWE Alternatinq Direct. Implicit No OHI Commercial As part of M1KE FLOOD ~
Commercial ;J::"
MIKE FLOOD SWE MIKE21 No OHI Own 10 river (MIKE 11) an d urban drainage ~
(M IKE URBAN) solvers ~
~
<IJ
SIPSONlUIM SWE Alternatinq Direct . Implicit No U. of Exeter Research Own multiple linking element
SOBEK SWE Implicit - Staggered grid Yes OELTARES Commercial Own 10 river solver, vertical l ink :;
JFLOW Diffusive wave Explicit No J8A Internai ~
~
FINITE ELEMENT SCHEMES 1
'2
~,
-
1
MIKE 21 FM SWE Godunov based Yes OHI Commercial As part of MIKE FLOOD Ci
""'1
~
MIKE FLOOD SWE MIKE 21 FM Yes OHI Commercial OWn 10 river (MIKE 11) and urban drainage ~
~
BreZo SWE Explicit- R Riemann solver Yes U . of California Research
TRENT SWE Explicit- R Riemann solver Yes Nottinqham U . Research
(l)
OTHERS ""1
(l)
USFLooD-FP Norm. Flow in Explicit No U . of Bristol Research 10 kinematic wave treatment. Verticallink . .....
<:
(l)
x and y dir.
RFSM G ravity only Volume filling algorithm No HR-Wal'ford Internai Linked ta other components of national FRA ~
Flowoute Diffusive wave Ambiental Internai No technical information published.
Grid-2-Grid CEH No technical information published .
Floodflow Microdrainage No technical information published .
Literature review
10+ 10 plus a storege Design scale modell ng Minutes Asfor 10 models, pluswater Mike 11
cell approach t) the which can be of the )rder levels and inundation Extent HEC-RAS
simu lati on of of 1Os ta lODs of km in foodplain storage cells ISIS
floodJlain flow. depending on catchment 1nfoWorks
size, al sa has th e RS
potential for broa d scal e
application if used V\ith
sparse cross-sectior
data.
20- 20 rrin us the law of 8road scale modelling Hours Inundation extent LlSFLOOD-
conservation o! and applications Vllhere Water depths FP
morrentum forthe inertial effects are not JFLOW
floodJlain flow. important.
20 Sol uti on of th e tvvo- Design scale mode Il ng of Hours or days Inundation e~ent TUFLOW
dime1sional shallow t1e ordercf 10s ofkll. Water depths Mike 21
water equations. May have :he potential Depth-averaged velocijes TELEMAC
f)r use in broad scale SOBEK
modelling if applied "'vith InfoWorks-
very coars~ grids. LD
20+ 20 plus a solution for Predominently coastal Days Inundation extent TELEMAC
vertical velociti::s modelling 3pplications Water d epth s :::0
usin~ continuity only. where 3D '/elocity profiles 3D vel ocitie s
are important. Has also
been appli~d to reach
~l:al~ riv~r rrlULl~lIilly
problems i1 research
projects .
3D Solution of the three- Local predictions of Days Inundation extent CFX
dirne1sional t1 ree-d irnension al Water depths
Reynolds averaged velo city fields in main 3D velocities
Navier Stokes channels end floodp ains.
equa:ions.
2.5 Rainfall-runoffmodel
The number of hits excluding citation returned by Google Scholar for the three
22
Literature review
The present decades shows a 194% increase compare to the previous one (Rainfall-
runoffkeyword), the association with modelling increases from 74% prior to 1990 to
both in time and space particularly for the ungauged catchments (where
measurements are not available) and into the future (where measurements are not
about hydrological systems but the ultimate aim of prediction using models must be
(Beven, 2004).
The perceptual model in hydrology undertook a dramatic paradigm shift with the
proving that rainfall was sufficient to account for flow of the Seine. Before him, the
23
Literature review
opinions were that the stream were fed by underground channels whose
the 17th and 18th centuries, numerous summit reservoirs to supply water to canals
crossing divides were constructed in Europe and England. There must have been
sorne shrewd estirnates of the runoff available in order to assure that these reservoirs
would meet the demand of the canals during protracted dry periods. There is no
evidence in the literature of the techniques used to make these estimates, and one
suspects that there was heavy dependence on the judgment of the planners.(Linsley,
1967). The perceptual model was their main reference. Keith Beven too insists on
has had, what he read, the data and field sites he came in contact with. The
represent the process leads to the conceptual model (see Figure 2 : A schematic
The runoff generation processes involved in the perceptual models are iIIustrated in
Figure 3
24
Literature review
~
~f
(b) Partial area infiltration excess overland flow
~
~f
(c) Saturation excess overland f10w
Figure 3 : A classification of process mechanisms in the response of hillslopes to rainfalls. (a) Infiltration
ex cess overland flow (Horton, 1933). (b) Partial area infiltration excess overland flow (Betson, 1964). (c)
Saturation excess overland (Cappus, 1960, Dunne and Black, 1970). (d) Subsurface stormflow (Hursh,
1936, Hewlett, 1961). (e) Perched saturation and throughflow (Weyman, 1970).
At this point, the hypotheses and assumptions being made to simplify the
descriptions of the processes need to be made explicit. Keith Beven notes that in
25
Literature review
many articles and model users manuals, the goveming equations are presented
prominently but the underlying sirnplifying assumptions are not (Beven, 2004). This
however should be the starting point for the evaluation of a particular rnodel relative
The equations driving the conceptual model rnay not be resolved analytically within
the boundary conditions of the real system. This is often the case for partial
this points and great care should be paid to understand the impact of these
approximations.
A variety of parameters are often involved relating soil properties and dimensions of
the catchments with the water discharge. Sorne are strongly time dependant, sorne
are constant during a given simulation. Some parameters like the ones related to
catchments size, drainage length and slope are easily available through GIS
techniques. The parameters relating to soil properties are often known at a very
different scale than the one being rnodelled (very limited soil samples representing
the whole catchments with very broad limit of confidence). The optimisation of the
r_ o- _ - _ . . . : - -
parameters is often done by various techniques of fitting a set of known outputs with
the available inputs in the rnodel. ,(Beven, 1993, Clarke, 1973, SCHUMANN, 1993,
Moradkhani and Sorooshian, 2008, Franks et al., 1997, Beven and Binley, 1992,
26
Literature review
Parameters values determined by calibration are effectively valid only inside the
2006)
likely inevitable
set with know results that was not used in the calibration (independent data) and
quantify the divergence between the modelled and observed output. Jens Christian
Refsgaard and Jesper Knudsen (Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996) propose a testing
frame in 4 steps :
a) The split-sample test (SS) involves calibration of a model based on 3-5 years of
j •• ".--:.. .. _ ...-..,.
c) In the proxy-basin test (PB) no direct calibration is allowed, but advantage may
27
Literature review
catchment.
sets to represent the periods before and after the change, and subsequent
But these validation test are based on the idea of optimal model that is more or less
approached with the actual system modelled.(Beven, 2004, Beven, 2006, Anderson
et al., 2001)
(GLUE) (Beven and Freer, 2001) achieves this objective by running many different
model runs with randomly choosen parameters sets. Each run is evaluated against
likelihood value of zero. The likelihood measure are then used to weight the
There are many different ways of classifying hydrological models (see (Clarke,
1973, O'Connell, 1991, Singh, 1995). Rere after is a very basic classification adapted
from Beven (2004). The frrst taxon concems the spatial extension of the calculation
28
Literature review
unit: lumped or distributed modelling approach. Lumped models treat the catchment
as a single unit, with state variables that represent averages over the catchment area.
Distributed models make predictions that are distributed in space, with state
variables that represent local averages of storage, flow depths or hydraulic potential,
by discretizing the catchment into a large number of elements or grid squares and solving
the equations for the state variables associated with every element grid square.
Parameter values must also be specified for every element in a distributed model.
There is a general correspondence between lumped models and the 'explicit soil
models and 'physically based' or process-based models. Even this correspondence is not
exact, however, since some distributed models use ESMA components 10 represent
even the most distributed models currently available must use average variables and
parameters at grid or element scales greater than the scare of variation of the processes.
They are consequently, in a sense, lumped conceptual models at the element scale
(Beven, 1989). There is also a range of models that do not make calculations for
TOPMODEL, is a model of this type, but has the feature that the predictions can be
mapped back into space for comparison with any observations of the hydrological
model.(Beven, 2004)
ministic models permit only one outcome from a simulation with one set of inputs and
parameter values. Stochastic models allow for some randomness or uncertainty in the
29
Literature review
parameters. The vast majority of models used in rainfall-runoff modelling are used
in a detenninistic way, although again the distinction is not clear-cut since there are
examples of models which add a stochastic error model to the deterministic predic-
tions of the hydrological model and there are models that use a probability distribution
rule is that if the model output variables are associated with some variance or other
measure of predictive dispersion the model çan he considered stochastic; if the output
values are single valued at any time step the mode! can he considered deterministic,
There is one other modelling strategy based on :fuzzy methods that looks highly
promising for the future. In particular, fuzzy models would appear to offer the
potential for a more direct translation from the complexity.ofthe perceptual model
into a procedural model. Lohani and al. have recently compared rainfall-runoff
predictions based on Artificial Neural Network, fuzzy logic and linear transfer
functions on the upper Narmada basin (India). In their study, fuzzy models
2.5.9.1 Introduction
and analysis of observed events. It also includes reservoir routing methods for
WHS HydroSolutions Ltd. The rationales for its use in the present study are
The Revitalised Flood Hydrograph (ReFH) model is the new FEH rainfaII-runoff
method for UK design flood estimation. The methods used is based on the FEH
The method was developed by The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH ) as a
direct replacement for the Flood Studies Report rainfall -runoff method, and the
software replaces the Micro-FSR software. This new lumped conceptual rainfall-
runoff model was calibrated using recent and large flood events and has added
emphasis on seasonal flooding, with the same underlying principles as the previous
• specify both soil moi sture and rainfall on a seasonal basis depending on the
evaporation
31
Literature review
routing methods
In addition to the software, the ReFH design model has been implemented as a freely
Note that the following sections are partly reproduced from "The revitalised
on the modelling of individual events. At the most rudimentary level ail that is
required to reproduce the catchment-scale relationship between storm rainfall and the
soil moi sture storage, groundwater recharge and interception losses; and
.::,r... :,-•• -
• a time distribution model to represent the various dynamic modes of
catchment response.
relationship is very much related to scale, both spatial and temporal. For instance, a
model relating the annual rainfall and runoff for a small homogeneous catchment
32
Literature review
may be very simple, while the relationship between hourly rainfall and runoff on a
Hydrograph (ReFH) model has been developed for use in the revitalised FSRlFEH
In the following it is important to distinguish whether the ReFH model is used for
modelling an observed flood event or for generating a design flood event. When
trying to reproduce a flood event from historical series of observed rainfall and soil
that will be exceeded on average once every T years, where T is the return period
(e.g. T= 100 years). When generating a design event, the input values of rainfall and
antecedent soi! moisture do not represent a particular historie event but are
generalised vaIues specified so that certain combinations will result in a flood event
The ReFH model consists of three main components: a loss model converting total
rainfaIl into effective rainfall, a routing model and a baseflow model. The
connections between the three model components are shown in Figure 4 : ReFH
model concept diagram, together with the required input variables and model
model based on daily data is used to determine the state of the soil at the start of the
When simulating a flood event, the 10ss model is used to estimate the fraction of the
total rainfall volume turned into direct runoff. The direct runoff is then routed to the
33
Literature review
catchment outlet using the unit hydrograph convolution in the routing model and,
finally, the baseflow is added to the direct runoffto obtain total runoff. Each of the
Total ra infall
-..
--i--'"
,..-_....L.-_----,
•• -..~ ! .... ', .
The loss model in ReFH is based on the Probability Distributed Model (PDM)
applications in the UK. The PDM model is being used in a framework for a national
system for flood frequency estimation using continuous simulation modelling in the
UK (Lamb, 1999; Calver et al., 2005). Furthermore, the model has heen used in real-
time flood forecasting (Moore, 1999) and it has been used to investigate the impact
2003).
storage elements, each of a random soil moisture capacity C arising from a statistical
34
Literature review
storage elements are arranged in order from the highest (Cmax ) down to zero
capacity, the resulting PDM distribution of soil moisture capacity is shown in Figure
5 : Cumulative distribution of soil moi sture capacity . It is further assumed that the
storage elements interact such that the soil moisture is redistributed between stores
between rainfall events. Thus, at any time soil moisture is constant for all elements
of capacity greater than Ct and is at full capacity for elements of capacity smaller
moisture capacity. During a storm, the depth ofwater in each storage element is
increased by rainfall (horinzontalline are a) and when rainfall exceeds the storage
capacity, direct runoff is generated. For the short duration of the storms under
consideration, the effects of evaporation and drainage out of the soils have not been
inc1uded.
EXeèSS
............. o
'-"'-~
"'-.. . . . .
~
--~.
.......
~.......
{I
..
............ ..".
~
.......
_.......
..--..
-
So~1 m(l~ s.1u re
-~. capaclty, C t
. ........
•• •
-
• •
C· ...--... ....... -..,..,.
• f ••
-_
-li---_.....
~
~
~,~ • •
~.. .
1 • • : - - :..
Thus, a pulse of rain, Pt, on the soil gives 100% runoff from the area already at full
capacity and increases the moisture content in an other areas. The excess amount of
rainfall converted into direct runoff, qt, can be estimated through simple geometric
considerations as
35
Literature review
Equation 6
where the continuity equation Ct+M = Ct + Pt applies and Cilli is the soil moisture
content at the start of an event. The ratio q/P of rainfall transformed into direct
runoff is a measure of the percentage runoff, and Cmax is the only model parameter.
Once Ct exceeds Cmax, the model assumes that 100% of the rainfall is converted into
runoff. The loss model can be applied sequentially, where a loss is ca1culated
for each time step, or it can be applied to calculate a single loss of total rainfall
volume. In the revitalised FSRlFEH rainfall-runoff method, the former option has
been adopted, Le. a loss is calculated for each individual time step. As the soil
becomes increasingly wet during the storm, the loss decreases and the runoff rate
increases. The initial soil moi sture content (Cilli) is an important parameter when
applying the loss model, either for analysing an observed event or for simulating a
For the routing model, ReFH uses the unit hydrograph (UH) concept for routing the
net rainfall to the catchment outlet (direct runoff). A UH can be estimated directly
for each flood event through simultaneous analysis of the effective rainfall
hyetograph and the direct runoffhydrograph as described by Chow et al. (1988), for
instantaneous unit hydrograph (lUH) scaled to each catchment using the time-to-
peak (Tp) parameter, catchment area and the selected time step. The ReFH model
retains the concept of a standard IUH shape scaled to individual catchments, but
triangle.
36
Literature review
UI it hyalrogra'ph
l ime units
.:_______2_Tp_ _ - r~ ____•______-.~
.~------------ TB -----------------.~
Equation 7
where TBt= 2 Tp /[h to ensure unit-area under the non-kinked triangular unit
hydrograph, illustrated by the broken line in Figure 6. Thus if Uk= 1 the IUH is a
simple triangle, but as Uk drops towards zero, the 'lost area' is transferred into the
Equation 8
Attempts to relate the parameters controlling the height (Up ) and kink (Uk) of the
values of Up = 0.65 and Uk= 0.8 are recommended for use in the revitalised FSRlFEH
IUH has a lower peak and a longer time base than the FSR IUH. To convert the
37
Literature review
dimensionless IUH in Figure 6 into the required units of m3 s-1 mm-1, a scaling factor
of AREA 1 (3.6 Tp) is applied, where AREA is in km2 and Tp is in hours. The IUH can
rainfall is given as a sequence of depths in successive time steps I1t, the IUH must
first be converted to an equivalent I1t-hour UH. To transform the IUH in Figure 6into
a unit hydrograph of any given time step I1t, the ReFH model uses the S-curve
(1988). The S-curve method replaces the existing FEH approximation of adding half
the time step to the time-to- peak of the IUH. This approximation only works if I1t is
The baseflow mode} implemented in the ReFH model is based on the linear
The approach, discussed by Appleby (1974) allows the· separation of total flow in
baseflow and surface flow without knowing the rainfall input. It is based on the
contributing area concept, and assumes that the saturated area of the catchment that
produces surface runoff is the same area that also produces baseflow recharge, and
furthermore that the ratio of recharge to runoff, BR, is fixed. An unsaturated area
produces neither runoff nor recharge because rainfall is retained as soil moisture.
Rainfall that becomes recharge is assumed to pass through a linear storage (with a
lag value of BL ) before emerging into the same channel system that carries the
surface runoff. The baseflow hydrograph at the catchment outIet can be determined
by routing BR times the (as yet undefmed) surface flow at the outlet through the
groundwater store. The observed hydrograph at the outlet is then the sum of the
The resulting baseflow model calculates the baseflow at successive time steps ~t
apart by linking the baseflow to the observed runoff and the estimated baseflow from
where Qtis total observed flow at time t. For the case where the baseflow model is
being used to analyse an observed flood event, the constants kt, k2 and k3 are given
as :
k
1
= BR ( BL (1-k 3 )
k3 ) Equation 9
(l+BR) tH l+BR
k - BR (1_ BL (1-k 3 ))
Equation 10
2 - (1+BR) t1t 1+BR
People have been measuring rainfall amounts for more than 2000 years, but a lot of
uncertainty remains regarding how much rain falls in remote areas of the globe.
(NASA,2010d).
Before TRMM's launch, the measurements of the global distribution of rainfall at the
39
Literature review
seems to affect one percent or less of the surface of the Earth at any time (Barrett &
Martin, 1981), and which "typically occurs at only a very small fraction of the time
intensities range from 0 to > 125 mmJh, and characteristically vary over distances as
small as tens of metres, and over periods of minutes or even seconds, by orders of
arisen in association with the gauges themselves: many different gauge types are in
everyday usage, the time intervals investigated by families of gauges differ, the
raingauges themselves affect the parameter they are designed to measure, and
deficiencies in rainfall station and data record management aIl adversely affect
The main limitations of recording gauges, due to the short intervals between
measurements, are that small rainfall totals may not be accurately recorded, some
rainfall may be missed during the emptying of storage vessels, and the delayed
delivery of water to the measuring container can introduce temporal errors (Linsley
et al., 1949, Sumner, 1988, Mc Anelly and Cotton, 1989, Robinson and Ward, 1990,
40
Literature review
Measurements from gauges are also subject to systematic errors due to shading and
and features but amplified if the gauge rim is above ground level, increases the wind
speed above the opening and carries raindrops downwind, causing rainfall totals to
be underestimated. The impact of this can be minimised by mounting the top of the
gauge level with the ground surface, building a turf wall around it, or placing it in a
pit surrounded by a mesh grid (Arlon and Meisner, 1987, Sumner, 1988, Horsfield,
Gauges provide good measurements of rainfall at a single point, but rainfall is highly
variable spatially and it is necessary to interpolate these values for most applications
dependent on gauge density and distribution, and on the ability of the available data
to represent patterns over a larger area; sparse point values may not effectively
1988, Horsfield, 2006, Barrett and Beaumont, 1994). Point values are interpolated to
provide areal estimates for unsampled locations, but this can introduce smoothing,
which misses sorne fine-scale features (Hildebrand et al., 1979), and only perfectly
represents the actual situation where rainfall demonstrates spatial homogeneity (Oh
gauge, 41 % have only one, 10% have two to five gauges, 2.2% have ten and
41
Literature review
Historically, satellite meteorology may be said to have been launched in April 1960
through the first Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-l ).(Barrett,
(1967) who considered general relationships between cloud brightness and coldness
and rainfall, and by Barrett (1970) who prepared monthly rainfall maps for part of
the tropical Far East based on satellite cloud charts (nephanalyses), using climate
station data for calibration (Barrett and Martin, 1981). Since then ever-increasing
efforts have been made to exploit satellite visible, infrared and microwave data for
such purposes (Barrett and Beaumont, 1994). Visible and infrared data provide
information on cloud top characteristics which may be indicative of areas and rates
of rain falling from the bases of the clouds, but passive microwave radiation is
42
Literature review
scattered by, or emitted from the hydrometeors themselves embedded in the clouds.
the radiation data, these being characteristically rather low spatially (at best about 0.5
km in the visible and infrared, and as low as about 50 km in the passive microwave)
and infrequent temporally (ranging from every half an hour, or less, from
geostationary satellites to as low as once per day from polar orbiting satellite
systems).
Note that the following paragraphs are adapted from "Satellite rainfall climatology: a
Perhaps the most important contribution that satellite observations can make to
globally, a feature that was evident since the launch of the first meteorological
satellite.
Since the launch ofTIROS-l, polar-orbiting (or Low Earth Orbit) satellite sensors
Administration (NOAA) are direct descendants of the TIROS-1 satellite and are
characterized by dual satellite coverage of the globe twice daily at a basic resolution
of 1 km. These satellites constantly circle the Earth in an aImost north-south orbit,
passing close to both poles. The sun-synchronous nature of the orbit allows one
satellite to cross the Equator at 07 :30 h local time, with the other at 13 :40 h local
time: two of these satellites ensure that data for any region of the Earth are no more
than 6 hours old. The current NOAA series of satellites started in 1979 with the
43
Literature review
launch ofNOAA-6, with the newest satellite being NOAA-N launched on May 20,
The primary instrument aboard the NOAA series of satellites is the Advanced Very
visible and IR parts of the spectrum with a spatial resolution of 1 km, resulting in
AVHRR : the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Stratospheric Sounding Unit
(SSU), and, more recently, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Dnit (AMSU), can
be used to help improve the satellite rainfall estimates. In addition, the use of the
High Resolution InfraRed Sounder (HIRS) can be used to detect the transparency of
clouds and, hence, their rainfall potential. However, the main limitation of the polar
orbiting satellites is the poor temporal sampling (about every 6 h) being insufficient
weather satellites are placed around the globe to provide continuous, repeat coverage
of the Earth. From an altitude of 35,400 km, each satellite can provide data from
about one third of the Earth' s surface, but due to image degradation towards the
Orbiting Satellite (GEOS) satellites, but more typically every 30 minutes. The
Although the resolution of the geostationary satellites is coarser than that of the
44
Literature review
weather systems.
Whilst the sensors described above operate in the visible and IR regions of the
spectmm, another set of sensors have been developed for detecting microwave
radiation. Early experiments with passive microwave radiometry started in 1972 with
37 GHz. Results from these two instruments illustrated the benefits to be gained
Radiometer (SMMR) was launched in 1978: this instrument collected data at five,
duai-polarized frequencies (6.6, 10.69, 18.0,21.0 and 37.0 GHz). Since 1987 the
observations at three frequencies (19.35, 37.0 and 85.5 GHz) and a vertically
polarized channel (22.235 GHz) with the resolution at the highest frequency being
13x15 km.
45
Literature review
....--.- ~--
Meteosat-7 Europe Vis/IR 0°
Meteosat-5 Europe Vi /IR 63°E
GOMS- I Russia Vis/IR 76°E
INSAT- ID lndia Vis/IR 74°E
INSAT-2E India Vis/IR 83°E
FY-2 China Vis/IR 105°E
GMS-5 Japan V~ /IR 1400E
GOES-IO USA V~ /IR 135°W
:r': • .- >
GOES-8 USA Vis/IR 75°\V
Despite the host of Vis/IR techniques developed, many showing great promise
especially over land, aIl have their limitations. The major drawback is that aIl the
techniques have to infer rainfall from the cloud top temperature or brightness. There
2001).
In the meantime, it was established as early as the mid-1970s that the passive
microwave imagery could provide useful evaluation of rainfall over oceans, at least
on a climatological time and space scales (Rao and Abbott, 1976). The frequencies
0.81 cm (37 GHz), 1.43 cm (19.35 GHz) and 1.66 cm (18 GHz) were particularly
useful for delineating atmospheric liquid water content, precipitatable water and
46
Literature review
upon the radiation emerging from the Earth's surface and from the intervening
atmosphere between the Earth and the satellite (Allison et al., 1974). Early works by
(Adler et al., 1991, Weinman and Wilheit, 1981, Bellerby et al., 1998) all confirmed
that passive microwave radiometry had great potential for surface rain rate
estimation.
that absolute values are still uncertain: over sea areas there is a lack of adequate
The various intercomparison exercises have all indicated that there are variations in
the amount and distributions of rainfall that individual algorithms retrieve. Assessing
which algorithm is 'best' is made more difficult by the Jact that, over regions where
greatest differences between the satellite products occur, generally are regions of
surface measurements, sorne error in the intercomparisons is due to the surface data
not being ofhigh enough quality for a direct comparison with satellite data.(Kidd et
Earth, non sun-synchronous orbit and carries sensors designed to enhance our
47
Literature review
from the SSMIl instrument, with the addition of a 10.7 GHz channel, with a best
resolution of 4 km at 85.5 GHz. This, together with the AVHRR derived Visible and
InfraRed Scanner (VIRS) constitutes the passive rainfall sensors(see Figure 8).
(Huffman et al., 2007, NASA, 2010c). The most significant instrument ofthis
the satellite quite unique. The co-Iocated, co-temporal sampling of the sensors
48
Literature review
49
Literature review
TRMM observed data are processed by NASA and NASDA, and distributed to
Levet Definition
o Un essed instrument drt~ time ocdered, uali checked, no reœndanc .
1
Estimated Do
Sensor Processing Level Proœd Seme Unit"} Volume"'2
(Compressed)
149MB
PR IB2l Calibmled Received Power 1 orbit (16/day)
(6~70 MB)
149MB
IC2l Radar Refle ct ivity î orbit (16lday)
(4()-"SO MS)
Normalized R..J .... Swface 10MB
2A21 1 orbit (l61day)
Cross Section (s'J) (6-7 MB)
13MB
2A23 PR Qualihtive 1 orbit (16/day)
(6---7 MB)
241 :MS
2A25 Rain Profile 1 orbit (16/day)
(13-17 MSl
Monthly Statistics of Global Map (Monthly) 40MB
3A25
Rain Parameter (Grid: 5° x 5°, O.Y x O.S·) (26--27 MB)
Monthly Rain Rate Global Map (Monthly) 9.3 MB
3A26
8smg llStaJ:isticaJ Aletkod (Orid: 5° x 5°) \.~.. a..tf.LM9;'
14:MB
TM! IBll Brightness TemperZire 1 orbit (16/day)
(14 MB)
97:MB
2A12 Rain Profile 1 orbit (16/day)
(6.7-9 ME)
Global Map (Montbly) 53KB
3A11 Monthly Oceanic Ramfall
(Grid: 5" x S") (44 KB)
.r.,_-_':~-::.
92MB
Vm.S IBOl Radililce 1 orbit (16/day)
(90MB)
151 MB
COMB 2B3l Rain Profile 1 orbit (16/day)
(8MB)
Global Map (Monthly) 442KB
3B3l Monthly Rainfall
(Grid: 3° x 5°) (380.-410 KB)
TRMM &IR Global Map (S/day) 242KB
3B42
DailyRainfall Grid : 0.25 * 0.25 (1l~115 KBl
TRMM & Other Sources Global Map (Monthly) 242KB
3B43
Monthly Rainfall (Qid: 1° x 1") (242 KB)
50
Literature review
LelJel 13
Le'/el2
1 ~IJ~I .~
,
PR
.
Fllonthly R:ain Rate
usln Il a Stalls.cal MetnoCi
Lo'/ol3
(Comhin::li P'OcllJct Iisino IR InfraRed
C PI G IDb:a1 P...eipitaüo n Ind IJ( .
-RM rv1 g Ot hY dGtG) SSMA SlleClalsensor
Micrawlve/lma ger
CAM6 Cllm:all! Assessment and
Monitoring SY!ium
G PCC G IDb III P recipi1 ëlton
Clmltology Center
The 3b42 rainfall estimates are sometimes referred as TMPA for TRMM
Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis but this is misleading as the TMPA includes the
51
Literature review
The 3b42 (Huffman et al., 2007) is a near real-time precipitation rate product at fine
time and space scales (3-hr, 0.25 degree X 0.25 degree latitude-longitude) over the
latitude band 50 degree N-S. This product makes use ofTRMM's highest quality
observations, along with high quality passive microwave-based rain estimates from
3-7 polar-orbiting satellites (e.g. AMSR, (2) SSMIIDSMP, (2) AMSUIPOES), and
all the geosynchronous IR sensors (Meteosat, GOES, GMS). The combined quasi-
adjust, the estimates from aIl the other satellites, and then combining aU the
estimates into the TMPA final products. The technique uses as much microwave
data as possible, and uses the geo-IR estimates to fill in gaps in the three-hour
The primary merged microwave- infrared product is computed at the 3-hourly, 0.25 0
as weIl as land surface precipitation gauge analyses when possible, with the goal that
the final product will have a calibration traceable back to the single "best" satellite
estimates. The TMPA is computed twice as part of the routine processing for
after real time, and then as a post-real-time research-quality product about 10- 15
days after the end of each month. (For brevity, these will be referred to as the RT and
research products, respectively.) The fust bas been posted to the Web since February
52
Literature review
2002, while the second is available from January 1998, for a record that totals more
For the 3B42RT product (Huffman et al., 2009), files are produced every 3 hours on
synoptic observation hours (00 UTC, 03 UTC, ... , 21 UTC), these rainfall rates
correspond to the 3 hours centred on the nominal hour (ie: from 1:30 to 4:30 for the
03 UTC). The Version 6 TRMM product 3B42 is being computed with the TMPA
after real time, and constitutes the research-grade archive of TMPA estimates. The
version numbering for the TMPA-RT and official TRMM products are not related,
The number of hits exc1uding citations returned by Google. Scholar for the various
Table 10 : Google Scholar hits for 3b42 & hydrological models, flood, runoff
3b42 - 3b42
hydrological 3b42 3b42 flood
Year model runoff flood warning
<1990 0 1 2 0
1991-2000 2 0 1 0
2001-2005 19 5 11 5
2006 19 6 5 2
. .; ...
.,:..:-.,:- 2007 32 9 16 3
2008 48 21 26 10
2009 71 32 49 12
2010 35 22 30 8
53
Literature review
The surge of interest is linked to the growing historical depth of available data, the
world DEM such the SRTM(Jarvis et al., 2008) or the Aster GDEM (Jaxa, 2010) .
Large basins are often the focus of 3b42 rainfall-runoff modelling because they
present inaccessible areas and transboundary situation. The Mekong River is a case
where very advanced used of 3b42 data have been reported(Magome et al., 2008).
The study used 29 years of data to calibrate YHylBTOP model and obtain a volume
Similarly in La Plata basin (Su et al., 2008), the 3B42 based runoff prediction had
In the Tapajos river basin (Collischonn et al., 2008b), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients
In China, the quality of the TRMM 3B42 rainfall data is validated with the gauged
rainfall data in a 3-year periode Forced by the gauged and TRMM 3B42 rainfall data,
two continuous hydrologic simulation cases are conducted to analyze the temporal
variability and the spatial distribution of the hydrologie process in Huaihe River
basin (32° Lat N) from 1998 to 2003 .The analyses show that the TRMM rainfall is
comparable to the gauged rainfall data in the hydrologic study. The simulated
streamflow hydrograph with the TRMM rainfall is also consistent with the observed
But further North in China, in the West Laohahe River basin at latitude of 41 0_
integration proeesses, and as sueh the 3B42RT data have almost no hydrologie
utility, even at the monthly sca1e. In contrast, the 3B42 research data can produce
much better hydrologic predictions with reduced error propagation from input to
stream flow at both the daily and monthly sca1es.(Yong et al., 2010).
correlation (R2 ) = 0.41 with the observed',flow, while the best SRFE (CCD) had R2
= 0.68. After correction and recalibration the best correlation obtained was with
2010).
with a combination of gauges and TRMM data. (Nishat and Rahman, 2009).
Each of the studies mentioned above are using different rainfall-runoff models to
generate a discharge from a rainfall. Therefore, they may not be strictly representing
the performance of the 3B42 data (and a sharp difference seem to emerge between
Most of the authors cited request some improvementlloca1 correction in the dataset
55
Literature review
Three cases of flood warning systems based on 3b42 have been identified : the
Global Flood Monitoring (Hossain et al., 2007), the Mekong Flood Forecasting
(Magome et al., 2008) and the EFLOOD package developed for the Evros
2010).
systems for the data-sparse regions of the world, a modular-structured Global Flood
rainfall flux into a cost-effective hydrological model for flood modelling quasi-
globally has been initiated by NASA. This framework includes four major
(http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/potential_flood_hydro.html) shows
with the Google-Earth visualization too1. The global DEM is based on the
SRTM,(Jarvis et al., 2008) Global soil properties are extracted from the Digital Soil
of the World (F AO 2003). The MODIS land classification map is used as proxy of
land coyer/uses and a modified version of HEC-HMS is used to generate the runoff
56
Literature review
In order to achieve effective flood risk forecasting for poorly gauged sub-basins in
the Mekong River Basin, the feasibility of using a currently available distributed
the YHyMIBTOP model, was used to simulate at any grid for the whole Mekong
River Basin, including poorly gauged basins. Historical discharge data for the past
(TMPA) data were forced in the model. Simulated discharge by the YHyMIBTOP
discharge weIl and the possibility of real-time flood risk assessment was weIl
The most ambitious modelling using a automatic forcing of the model with 3b42RT
Greece. (Fotopoulos et al., 2010). The system was developed for the Evros
catchment, extending between Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey. The main component is
called EFLOOD and is the core of the system. It retrieves the areal rainfall
estimation for a given time period and location from 3b42RT or 3B42 and computes
high discharge values are then compared to two pre-defined values that correspond
to the alarm level and to the maximum possible flow rate that can be routed through
the crosssections of Evros river respectively. If these two values are exceeded, then
57
Literature review
EFLOOD issues either an alarm warning or a flood event. During the period 2000-
2009, the system using 3B42 research had a successfui diagnostic of 87 %, faise
alarm 8%, missed flood 1%, false flood event 4%. The 3b42 RT (real time) was less
efficient : successful diagnostic of 77 %, false alarm 13%, missed flood 2%, false
flood event 80/0. But a locally recalibrated 3B42RT reached a better efficiency :
successful diagnostic of 95 0/0, faise alarm 2%, missed flood 2%, faise flood event
1%.
58
Methodology
3 Methodology
The significance of a river discharge is manifold but one of the crucial consequence
of high flow is the inundation of the flood plain. The para 2.3 presents only a short
summary of flood damages but that should be sufficient to convince about the
requirements of flood defence and mitigation. These actions frorn the population
living in flood prone area require some spatial framework where the flood extent and
flood depth need to be as explicit as possible. This requires a modelling effort with a
reliability and the impact of error propagation in modelling flood plain. The
technologies involved in the acquisition of the data discussed here (space borne
radar, passive micro-wave & infrared captors and laser ranging) are in very rapid
development and each technological steps reveals huge potentials but also generate
risks of errors/ misrepresentation. The effort placed in this study is motivated by the
author's experimental tradition developed from an early age in a photo lab where the
59
Methodology
between inadequate attempts (probe and automatic calibration were at their infancy
performance and error of each instrument and its data processing but to look at a
final pragmatic result : a flood plain delineation processed with different data set.
data will be identified by comparing the flood extent modelled based on stream
gauge data measurements, rain gauge data and passive-microwave- and infrared-
based satellite rainfall data. The modelling of the flood plain requires the
rainfall-runoffmodel.(Beven, 2004). The link between the flood plain and the
satellite based estimation of rainfall is the backbone of the present study. Time and
word count constrains limit the investigation of connected· topics such as the
model in emergency planning and management, and flood defence design but their
Along the resolution of the central research question, some additional subsidiary
questions emerged while mobilising the various tools and software. One concem, the
adequacy of the ReFH method outside UK, the other is related to the use of LIDAR
60
Methodology
emerging during the study rather than planned at its inception. A cruciallimiting
factor was to obtain a software package sufficiently recent, properly debugged and
well documented. These constraints result from the academic timeframe. The other
constraints is related to the access to satellite data, topographical data, river flow and
rain gauge data. A manageable flood plain South of Villers-sur-Semois (49.69° Lat
a) Being of a size that the 2,500 cells of ISIS 3.3 free could modelled in 2
b) located in the Semois basin for which river flow, rain gauge data, and LIDAR
c) Being located within the coverage of the TRMM satellite observation (Lat <
61
Methodology
The 1D module of ISIS free provides 250 nodes and withiil this limitation it was
The mode lIed reach is 5,101 m long, cross two roads with bridges and does not have
62
Methodology
based on the 10 m DEM provided by the regional authority with the ArcHydro
utility (ESRI, 2009). The result returns 141.3 km2 , the official catchment size for the
gauging station is presented as 143 km2 • In the present study the 141.3 km2 value is
used.
It is considered relevant to include the January 2003 flood in the study. At the time
of ordering the ground data, the plan included using the GSMap MVK+ which are
available for the 2003-2008 period. Therefore the data requested from the local
reasonable time span for an MSc dissertation. But the 3b42 data set is available from
January 1998 to present and the whole period could have been included in the study ~
The data processed here starts on 01/11/0201:00 AM and ends on 31/11/08 12:00
PM.
-.,-" --.:~ .. ~.
63
Methodology
rainfall da ta
The initial intention was to compare several data set namely : CMORPH (Joyce et
al., 2004), TRMM 3B42 (NASA, 2008) and GSMapK+(USHIO et al., 2009) but the
time constraint made TRMM 3B42 the only possibility. The main advantages of
2010). The 3b42 product contains more inputs than the MW and IR results as it
incorporates also the observation from th~ space borne rain radar (see para 2.6.3.3).
element for the 3b42RT product although this had no influence in the present study.
The data set used here is the 3b42 ver 6. Re se arch (NASA, 2008, NASDA, 2001).
and 2D modelling.(Wallingford, 2010, DHI, 2010, Ernst et al., 2009, Pender, 2009,
Werner, 2004, Horritl and Bates, 2002, Syme, 1991). The Department of Geography
at the University of Hull has no license for any 1D-2D modelling software, ISIS free
was the only affordable option. The cost of the 4 days training in Leeds and London
The choice ofrainfall-runoffmodel is very open and the lack of experience and tight
UK where the ReFH method is a respected norm (Faulkner and Barber, 2009,
Kjeldsen, 2007). The parameterisation of the mode1looked rather simple at fust sight
64
Methodology
although this is the case for UK only where catchments descriptors are readily
parameters preparation
hydrological.
1. (AREA) : Catchment drainage area derived from the Digital Terrain Model
(km2)
5. (DPLBAR) : Mean of distances along drainage paths between each 50m grid
-.:_".- '.~
65
Methodology
AlI these parameters were derived from the 10m DEM provided by the regional
authorities.
indicates no attenuation)
Types) classification
classification
4. (PROPWET) : Proportion of time when soil moisture deficit was below 6mm
during 1961-90
RMEDIH, RMEDID, RMED2D have been calculated based on the 6 years hourly
data available.
The long term average rainfall (SAAR) have been extracted from FAO Loc_ Clim
The BFI has been ca1culated by extracting the base flow from the 6 years data
PROPWET has been estimated with a regression using the long term rainfall as
variables: the hydrological properties of the European Soil Database (JRC, 2010),
the Corine Land Coyer 2000 database (Agency, 2000), DPLBAR, DPSBAR, BFI,
PROPWET and the SPRHOST data available from the HiFlows-UK v3.02 data set
(Environment Agency UK, 2010). Twenty four catchments with the same water
regime as the St-Marie-sur-Semois' catchment have been used to establish the multi-
URBEXT was estimated based on a regression between the Corine Land Coyer 2000
database and the URBEXT data available from the HiFlows-UK_v3.02 data set.
The model is calibrated with rainfall-runoff data grouped in flood events. Each event
but aIl the events need to be presented with the same timestep.
The initial moisture is obtained from antecedent rainfall. For the evapotranspiration,
FC : Field Capacity
RD : Routing depth
67
Methodology
Tp : Time to Peak
BR : Baseflow recharge.
Once the model is calibrated, rainfall data and evapotranspiration annual daily mean
are introduced as input for the flood period and the antecedent period; the model
The typing bucket gauges used in the Semois basin are all equipped with processeur
and modem allowing the accumulation on hourI y basis and the transmission to a
central database (Water Control Data system for Hydrology and Water Management)
des Voies hydrauliques". The houri y data were provided by "SPW - DGO. Direction
http://voies-hydrauligues.wallonie.be/opencms/opencms/fr/hydro/Archive/annuaires/index.html
68
Methodology
The whole time span was downloaded pixel by pixel using the TRMM Online
spatial and temporal selection very convenient for a small area. The data can be
3b42 data are provided as rain rate in mm!h. To transform them into accumulated
rain during the 3h covered, they were simply multiplied by 3. The rain gauge data
were summed during the same period (1.5 hour before, 1.5 hour after the nominal
time). Downscaling the 3b42 to a 1 hour timestep was considered too demanding for
the present study. It is noticing that the GSMap MVK+ product (USHIO et al., 2009)
has a one hour timestep and the latest version of CMorph (Joyce et al., 2004)
.r-.-\.W"_'" •
provides data with a 30 minutes timestep but only as rotating file set for the last 31
Four rain gauge stations data were available with a 1 hour time step : Vresse, Sugny,
Bouillon, Bertrix. A fifth station was available with a Iday time step. Bouillon and
Fratin daily data are highly correlated (r=0.75) and it was decided to downscale the
Fratin data using the proportion of daily rainfall for each hourly observation from
Bouillon. As Fratin is the only rainfall station located within the catchment of
69
Methodology
interest (see Figure Il : Rain gauges localisation) and the inclusion of its data
improves the correlation between 3b42 and rain gauges, it was decided to base the
whole study on a data set including the downscaled data from Fratin station.
legend
• Raingauges
- SemorsR;ver
o Catchrrsntof St M.rie-sur-Semots
o Belgium boundaries
Based on the shortest distance between gauges and pixel centroid, the pairs in Table
70
Methodology
1 Bouillon
2 Bertrix
5 Fratin
The location of 3b42 pixel centroid and rain gauges is shown in Figure 12
o \t~. 1 2 3
• • • •
Frain.
Legend
6 5
•
• Rail Gauges
3M2 pixel centr oid
• •
D Semoi s Basin o 3.5
,! !!
7
I! !
14 Kilometres
Il
71
Methodology
3.10.5 Bias
The bias is the difference between the average of the whole time series of 3b42 data
and the rain gauges. It has been calculated for each pair 3b42-rain gauge. The
relative bias is the difference divided by the average of the rain gauge series.
The difference between each pair of3b42-rain gauge is squared for every timestep,
the square root of the mean square of these deviation is ca1culated for each pair of
3b42-rain gauge.
The probability of detection (POD), also known as Hit Rate (HR), measures the
fraction of observed events that were correctly forecast. It has been evaluated for
The false alarm ratio gives the fraction of forecast events that were observed to be
non events.
The HSS measures the fractional improvement of the forecast over the standard
standard, which me ans Heidke Skill scores can safely be compared on different
datasets. The range of the HSS is -00 to 1. Negative values indicate that the chance
forecast is better, 0 means no skill, and a perfect forecast obtains a HSS of. 1
72
Methodology
HSS = _(h_I_"ts_+_co_~_re_c_t_n_e_g_at_iv_e_S_)_-_(_exp_e_c_t_ed_C_O~_/î_ec_t---:)ra;.=..;ndo.:..=..:..:.;;.nt
N - (exp ected correct }randont
where
The weight of each source of rainfall data relative to the catchment area was
3. Calculate the weight of each centroid point using the Shephard formula
-p
hi
Wi = n
Lj=l hj
-p Equation 12
4. Average the weights relative to each source ofrainfall to obtain the weight
coefficient.
6. The sum of the weighted rainfall provides the IDW rainfall in the catchment
73
Methodology
The stream gauges used in the Semois basin are aH equipped with processor and
modem allowing the averaging hourly basis and the transmission to a central
database (Water Control Data system for Hydrology and Water Management) (RW,
Voies hydrauliques". The hourly discharge data were provided by "SPW - DGO.
http=//voies-hydrauliques.wallonie.be/opencms/opencms/fr/hydro/Archive/annuaires/index.html
The flow is recorded with a float-operated Thalimedes Shaft Encoder with integral
generates a measure every two minutes and calculates on site the hourly average
which is sent to the central database. An alert level can be'set to force a transmission
of data earlier than the routine interval. The precision is around 0.5 cm in water
The evapotranspiration is retrieved from the GLDAS model. The data are available
on 3 hours 0.25 deg basis. The series was downscaled to 1 hour timestep by linear
interpolation. But the ReFH package returned an error while reading the evapo-
transpiration data and this could not be corrected. The option to simulate the ETP
74
Methodology
The LIDAR data collected during 2000 to 2002 over the corridor of the main rivers
in Region Wallonne have recorded tirst and last pulse at a density of 8 pulses/m2
averaged to 1 elevation/m2 • The average vertical precision is Il cm. The last pulse is
expected to represent the altitude of the soil under the vegetation but many of the
trees around the river have echoed the signal rather than the river. This resulted in a
considerable distortion of the river profile'as illustrated in the Figure 13 to Figure 20.
As these LIDAR data were communicated very late in the course of the study (end of
July 2010), a rapid correction was deemed necessary. The small software Raster Edit
interpolate between points of consistent elevation but operating with the initial 1 m
DEM was too slow. The data were then aggregated to 4m using ArcGIS 9.3 and the
resample tool with bilinear interpolation option. The correction with RasterEdit have
been then tinalised on this 4 m DEM. It took 4 days ofwork to cover the 100 m
corridor along the river centralline on the 5 km reach. For the area outside the
75
Methodology
Fi re 13 : Localisation of Ion
'riaI_~ JI-----
w.--='-~
__ ro--- ..... _.. ~
-w. .. _ - -
rOllPoJ'i\n.'flND 'AeW - - - -
3)Vel;bDildtyQ:ltcn
J;1 QdsJ3)V~h.t1.mn~~Tet:IrIsnaœ
Figure 19: 3D view before DEM correction Figure 20: 3D view after DEM correction
A river centralline was elaborated based on the vector data of the topomap available
on the cartographie portal of the Region Wallonne, corrected visually based on the
Google Earth image. This centralline and the corrected 4 m DEM are used as input
76
Methodology
~œ MarieXS2 ~ :::::'ns
~ RNerCentrelile
t-# l OldRNtfS«OOns
;-t? Oraw RNer SecIj)ns
f-.# .rt
!,-~ EdIRNerSedioos
RNer Sednns from66 OAJ Fie
~ AssignRiterCerrtreÜ'le
~ ::;:,:~= on RNer cen~ U1e
~ nt~lateRrlerSe.ebaM
f-.:P' Ex1nIdZV.~ ..
'--# Save .. ISIS ED Ae
lm 2D _ a
:-tI' L• • d06l
$-(p loatiUOdeluode:$
":tP
Lo!.!t20UDd~Shapeflles
0-11' Cl'eale5S20Fies
- ~ Run SS20~lerfice
61 !-tP' .....rtllFAe
9..q. C,.... TUFLOW.,..
ffrÛ' Export TUFLOW"" To UF/UD Fe"""
~ lOAood ~ --.
:""tI' LoOl106l
:--t!' Lo.dTl.
'\
\
~# Lo"SilapeAe
L..# load Tabular csv Tex! fie. M Shepe fle
'-tP' EdiSll,pe,..
~ TriangulateShllpefJes
f-.q> ... TI.
~(""7'
; l "=''''-=
Ii)'':"'1~
-,=-I!l=(3'""11 !--# Md B.erylS5 R..... "'TIl
f=-- - - - - - 'I j-t? M6Tabu.rCSV Resulstonl
~ ChangeOispio!yedReJul
~ Generlleflooduap
'-V' ANna'eRe<U"
L#' R..:o<dAVl
!t 2D Aood ~
- lP' l ••dOEU
------ -------._---- \\
\
r-tl' lo, !l20Res:ib --""-_ 'i
~ GenerateFb:)dLlap .--....-----~
~ AniTla1eRes.ul:5
~ ReCGrdÂV1
ReFH is an event based deterministic model, the separation of peak flow and
baseflow cannot be automatically carried out by the packages. Therefore, the five
largest peaks have been extracted from the data set available. This number is rather
arbitrary based on time constraints. The five peak flows appear to have created sorne
inundations in the modelled reach (see Figure 22 : Maximum stage 5 flood events) .
Once the peaks have been selected, the rising limb and recession limb were based on
the departure from the long term average flow and return to this long term average
flow. The period between the end of the recession limb to the beginning of the next
77
Methodology
Discharge m3/s
The selection of the 5 large st peak as flood events is for practical purpose ; there
were peak flow of magnitude similar to the smallest ·flood flow during the inter flood
discharge in the 1 D model and determine the flood threshold based on the presence
of a flow overtopping the banks at sorne point of the channel. This threshold may be
around 16 m 3/s. But the present work intends to focus on the flood plain extent and
78
6L
... -~ -.~~--
aL!Xl1 t.::------------
><20,002 l
x20_003 ( 'L ____ _
><20,004 î
1
f
f
x2O-'J05
-ZOJJ06 1 .----_:>-_:_-----------
:=:
-ZO,OO9
7
-ZO,010 L1
i :'~:~ ~
-~r>
-ZO'013 7
-ZO'014 7
-ZO'015 7
1
.20'016 , 7
-ZO=017 7
f -zo 016
7
f x2O'019
x2O'020
-zo'021 Î
1
"
x2O'022 1 '----------------- .._-- ...
x20'023 --,
-ZO'024 --,
-ZO'025 --,
-ZO=026 --,
x20027
x2O'028 -,
1 .20'029 --,
f -zo'OOO ,
x2O'031 Î
f X2O=032~
x2O_033 t----f
><20,034
x20_035
-ZO,036
-ZO,037
x2O,036
x20,039 "
x2O_040
-ZO,041
x2O_042
><20,043
x2O_044 .i
><20,045
x2O_046
.20,047
J
~
BRU
'§
~ :=:
I~3
i x2tU>5) i~
f x20,054
x20,055
1 x20,055
.20,057
x20,056
i
x20_059
-ZO,06O
><20,061
-ZO,062
-ZO,063
o x20,066
x20,070
,~
1
-ZO,071
,0~
-ZO,072
x20,073
x20 074
i
.20=075
x2O_078
-ZO,077
x20_078
! -ZO,079
~ -ZO,06O
><20,061
,~ x20_082
~ -ZO,063
x20_084
,0~ .20,065
8 -ZO,066
><20,067
x20_088
x2O__
><20,090 -
-ZO,091
-ZO,092
><20,093
><20,094
-ZO,095
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><20=100 .
--_:~(~;%"':::::::-f::;;~:::::;:=~
---o f /.,
.
:-'--1' - r--,------'~ --------------------~~~~::::: :::::::.~~"'_
,
__t
~--------- -::: __ ==_ ..
!
Â3010PO-ql~W
Methodology
Two ensembles of calibration and validation data have been tested. The first one
used the 4 smaller flood events (rain and discharge) for calibration (FL2 to FL5) and
tested the predictive capacity with the rainfalllinked to the FL 1 period. The second
used the FL 1, FL3 to FL5 flood events for calibration and FL2 rainfall for validation.
The sections described at heading 3.13.2 are imported in ISIS ID, the two bridges
are modelled using approximate measurements based on available levels and basic
construction standards.
A Manning N value of 0.030 for the channel and 0.015 for the flood plain is adopted
based on the similarity with the Trent River study (McGahey et al., 2006)
Six events are modelled : FLI and FL2 based on gauged flow, rain gauge based
. .
..
;'::..~- '~ .:'.'
80
Methodology
One major source of delay was that the version 3.4 of ISIS Free installed on a
QuadCore based computer with Windows 7 (the core computer for the present
study) did not process the link 1D-2D while the version 3.3 installed on a dualCore
with Windows XP did. A lot of time was wasted due to this bug.
The 2D domain, computational area and active area went through a succession of
reduction to fmally reach a do main that was computable with the limited number of
cell (2500).
The procedure of linking the 1D to the 2D model involves the creation of a link line
The vertices of this link line are supplied with the 1D model nodes they should use
The Water levellinking (type H) is used ; water levels from 1D nodes are taken by
the model, and imposed as a boundary condition on the 2D model. The 2D part of
the computational calculates the flow at these linked boundaries, and passes this
81
Results and discussion
4 Results& discussions
4.1.1 Bias
Comparisons pixels by pixels with the five rain gauges in the Semois basin reveals a
considerable negative bias ranging from -0.11 to -0.18 mm /3 hours with an average
The largest bias is observed between the pixel 1 and the rain gauge located in
The RMSE is ranging between 1.64 and 1.91 with an average of 1.80. The largest
RMSE is observed at Bouillon (Table 13). The relative RMSE is really high: 426%
gauges Sugny
Vresse
3b42 pix 0 0 0 1 2 5
Relative
bias -34% -29% -32% -39% -31% -27%
82
Results and discussion
The probability of detection (POD) is the likelihood that the event would be forecast,
The HSS measures the fractional improvement of the forecast over the standard
forecast. The range of the HSS is -00 to 1. Negative values indicate that the chance
forecast is better, 0 means no skill, and a perfect forecast obtains a HSS of. 1
(Online, 2009). The equation is presented in the heading 3.10.9.The HHS score of
the four 3b42 pixels ranges between 0.01 and 0.18 with an average of 0.14
4.1.6 Correlations
The correlation coefficient (r) 3b42 pixels with individual rain gauges ranges
between 0.37 and 0.46 with an average of 0.42. The highest correlation coefficient is
''''~''-'' , .... observed between the pixel 0 and the average of the gauges located in Vresse and
'~".""'~.~ -.
83
Results and discussion
The number of 3b42 pixel covering availcible gauges data is very low to draw
conclusion for the whole product. It is a small sample but it is the one operational for
The performance of the 4 pixels of this study is rather poor ; comparing the 3b42
data at 0.5 0 resolution with a network of76 rain gauges in Greece, Feidas (Feidas,
2010) found that the 3b42 data had a low relative bias ( -4.2%), a much lower
relative RMSE (48.4%) and a much higher efficiency (0.76) and a correlation
coefficient of 0.88.
The difference are very like1y linked to the lower spatial resolution (the present study
used 0.25 0 resolution) and to the lower latitude (Greece is around 39 0 Lat N). The
present study is at the very extreme North of the 3b42 data domain.
A validation with rain gauges in Thailand (Chokngamwong and Chiu, 2008) shows
that around ISOLat N the 3b42 data most often overestimate the rain gauges except
for the Northem most region where altitude compounds with higher latitude and
84
Results and discussion
The Northem most Ground Validation sites for the 3b42 data are located at 35° Nin
2010)
It seems relevant to note that a negative correlation exist in the present study
between the altitude of the rain gauges and the gauge to 3b42 correlation (r= -0.42).
This relation is also observed in the Laohahe basin, China around 41 ° lat N (Y ong et
al., 2010).
The Shephard IDW was calculated (see heading 3.10.10) and applied for the whole
Semois watershed for both the 3b42 data and the rain gauges. The correlation
coefficient between the 7 pixels and the 5 rain gauges is equal to 0.5. It is 20% better
than the average of individual rain gauges correlation coefficients. The relative bias
observations which have a better ability to represent areal rainfall than discrete rain
gauge observations.
Marie-sur-Semois catchment.
The Shephard IDW was calculated (see 3.10.10) and applied for catchment upstream
of St Marie-sur-Semois gauging station for both the 3b42 data and the rain gauges.
Three rain gauges stations (Bertrix, Bouillon, Fratin) and three 3b42 pixels (3,4,5
see Figure 12) are evaluated for the correlation and bias. The correlation coefficient
85
Results and discussion
is equal to 0.39 and the relative bias to -34%. The reduction of scale and increase in
the rain gauges elevation seems to increase the error/divergence of the 3b42 data.
Seasonal effect will be discussed while discussing precipitations during flood events
(heading 4.4.)
As presented in the heading 3.14, five major flood events have been identified.
are as follows :
The relative bias has a wide bracket from -6% to -72%. The average relative bias
during flood periods is quite superior to the relative bias for the whole period of
observation. The fact that the five floods occurred during the winter leads to a
86
Results and discussion
degradation of the 3b42 performance (the algorithm does not differentiate weIl cold
with rain and cold without rain). This is also observed by F eidas in Greece (Feidas,
2010) who notes a -15% relative bias during the winter while during the other
seasons it is close to 0%. But Su (Su et al., 2008) in the La Plata basin (15° to 36°
The capacity to detect rain during the winter' s flood period seems really poor as
shown in Table 17 . The POD falls to 12% during the flood period while it is 14%
for the whole period of study.
are as follows :
87
Results and discussion
Rain gauges
Period IDW 3b42 IDW Bias Relative bias
-
PreFLI 221.9 133.0 88.9 -40%
-
PreFL2 4,064.0 2,924.1 1,139.9 -28%
-
PreFL3 1,134.0 738.3 395.7 -35%
-
PreFL4 155.2 36.2 119.0 -77%
-
PreFL5 22.7 6.6 16.2 -71%
-
Sum 5,597.7 3,838.1 1,759.6 -31%
The relative bias is much lower than during the flood period. The winter effect is the
Table 20 : Nbr of 3 hours period > 0 mm of ace. rainfall- inter flood periods
4.6.1 Introduction
method(Kjeldsen, 2007) was used with the adequate software package ReFH 1.0
explained in the heading 3.9. Out of 5 events available, 4 were used for calibration 1
88
Results and discussion
was used for validation. Two combinations of events are reported here : combination
1 use the FL2 to FL5 events for calibration and FL 1 for validation; combination 2
use the FL 1 and FL3 to FL5 events for calibration and FL2 for validation.
Two comparisons are envisaged : a) the comparison of the modelled flow using the
rain gauges IDW with gauged flow measured at St-Marie . . sur-Semois at 1 hour
timestep; b) the comparison of the modelled flow using the 3b42 IDW at 3 hours
timestep with the 3 hours average of the gauged flow measured at St-Marie-sur-
Semois.
Standard
Period Source Total Average deviation Peak Minimum RMSE NSE
FLI Gauged 4538.8 10.3 9.3 37.8 2.0
Rain gauge Mod 3118.1 7.1 8.1 43.4 1.5 5.9 0.33
FL2 Gauged 4673.6 7.3 6.2 30.2 2.0
Rain gauge Mod 4027.9 6.3 7.8 43.5 1.2 5.5 0.23
89
Results and discussion
Three hours
timestep m3/s
Standard
Period Source Total Average deviation Peak Minimum RMSE NSE
The sum of gauged flows differs between the two timesteps because the flow is
averaged on the 3 hours timestep and create a slightly different time period because
the departure and return to baseflow do not coincide exactly between the two
timesteps. The multiplication by 3 of the three hours sum is nearly equal to the sum
of the one hour timestep. The modelled flow based on rain gauges gives a result with
a reasonable error (relative RMSE = 66%) and providè a peak flow within a 50%
bracket ; this contrasts sharply with the 3b42 modelled flow which exhibits a relative
RMSE of258% and a peak flow within a 500 % bracket. The Nash Sutcliffe
coefficient of efficiency (NSE) differs sharply too between the two sources of
rainfall data in ratio of 1 to 25. There are few studies with which to compare the
present one regarding flow modelling with 3b42 data. One has been conducted in the
La Plata basin in South America, (Su et al., 2008), the timestep is daily and the
hydrology model. The size of the basins observed ranges between : 62 k km2 and
1,100 k km2 , the NSE with model forced with 3b42 ranges between <0 and 0.71 for
daily flows and <0 and 0.8 for monthly flow. The weighted average are respectively
0.71 and 0.8. But there too, the peak flows are overestimated by the 3b42 product.
90
Results and discussion
45
40
35
30
..... 25
'"E
- RG Modelled Flow
20 - Gauged Flow
., -= n· "J'..,
15
10
200 +-------------------------------------------------~----------------
150 +--------1~--------------------------------------~r_----_.--------
.....
'ê
- 3b42 Modelled Flow
100 +--------+-r--------------------------------------+-+-----~r_------
- Gauged Flow
50 +-------~_1,_++-------- . .----------------------+_--_+~~~~------
91
Results and discussion
FL 2 - 29/12/2006 to 28/01/2007
50.0
45 .0
40.0
35.0
30.0
.... 25 .0
ë
- RG Modelled Flow
20.0 - GaugedFlow
15.0
10.0
5.0
FL 2 - 31/12/2006 to 22/01/2007
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
~
15 .0 - 3b42 Modelled Flow
- Gauged Flow
10.0
5.0
0.0
92
Results and discussion
Despite the high number of iterations allowed for the optimisation of the model, the
recession limb of the modelled flow appears faster than the "real" flow. A review of
ReFH methodology (Faulkner and Barber, 2009) notes that the model tends to
overshoot the peak flow and sharpen the recession. The present study notes that
when the model is calibrated using the 3b42 FLI event (the largest flow in the data
set) a slightly smaller flow (FL2) is predicted at a much lower peak value. It is the
4.7.1 Introduction
As presented in the methodology, the ISIS free software ver 3.3 and ver 3.4 were
used to model the flow depth and stage in a 5 km reach downstream for the gauging
(conservation of mass and momentum) to solve the relation between flow and water
levels. Three hydrographs are available for each flood periods studied = one
originating from the river gauging station at a 1 hour timestep, one from the flow
modelled with rain gauges at a Ihour timestep, one from the flow modelled with
3b42 data at a 3 hours timestep. These 6 flow streams generated 6 different runs for
the 1D model. One hundred three cross sections (30 m on each side of the central
line) based on a LIDAR DEM were used to compute the flow-stage data.
The overflow depth is the difference between the flow stage and the elevation of the
lowest bank. It is computed from the maximum stage and analysed on the 103 cross-
sections. The results are presented in Table 23 : Maximum stages and overflow depth
93
Results and discussion
Ratio
Ratio Rain 3b42
Rain Gauge Mod
Gauged Gauge 3B42 Mod/Gauged /Gauged
Period Descriptor Flow Mod Mod Flow Flow
FLI Average max stage (masl) 329.95 330.05 331.98 1.00 1.01
Average overflow depth (m) 0.26 0.32 2.12 1.24 8.19
Maximum overflow depth (m) 0.92 1.02 3.34 1.11 3.65
FL2 Average max stage (masl) 329.80 330.05 329.47 1.00 1.00
Average overflow depth (m) 0.17 0.32 0.04 1.89 0.26
Maximum overflow depth (m) 0.76 1.02 0.43 1.34 0.57
The divergence between the two modelled flows and the two events is substantial.
The errors between the rain gauge modelled flow and gauged flow are of higher
proportion than the error between the maximum overflow depth (14% vs Il % for
FL1, 44% vs 34 % for FL2). For 3B42 based maximum overflow depth too, the error
be required to confmn this trend. The Figure 27, The maximum overflow depth for
4b42 is a misrepresentation of the reality because the cross-section were too narrow
to allow the spread of a such a large volume of water. The ISIS model builds "glass
walls" at the end of the cross-section to allow the continuation of the simulation.
94
Results and discussion
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95
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98
Results and discussion
As ISIS is OpenID compliant package, its 1D and 2D mode1s are able to exchange
at a rectangle of81,000 m 2 due the 2500 cells limitation of the free version. The
modelled reach. The area of the maximum flood extent are presented in Table 24
3b42/
Gauged Rain gauge 3b42 Rain Gauge/ gauged
Period Flow modelled modelled GaugedFlow flow
The 3b42 case may be misrepresented as the extent nearly reached the Northern limit
of the available computing area. But it is a fact that the local topography and the
roads minimize the expansion of the flood plain developed by the 3b42 modelled
flow, the end result is a flood plain much doser to the other sources of rainfall.·
The Figure 31 and Figure 32 present the delineation of the flood extent on Google
Earth snapshot.
http://web.me.com/albert.grela/3b42_flood~lainlWelcome.htm1
99
Results and discussion
-,- ".- .~ .. c::=] Max Flood Extent FI1 - 3b42 Modelled Flow
Max Flood Extent FI1 - Raln gauge<! modellad flow
[.=J Max Flood Extent FI1 - Gauge<! Flow
D 20 modelled area
fluvial flood risk(Region Wallonne, 2010) which is compared with the present
modelling of the flood extent. The official definition of the high risk is :
100
Results and discussion
" an area with a flood return period equal or less than 25 years and a submersion of
at least 30 cm".
For the two flood events of the present study, the flood extent presented in Table 24
these extent with a depth >= 30 cm is plotted on the background of the official flood
. '.1
21/12/02 to 10/01/03
FLl max sup 0.3 m depth : 31>42 mod
FL1 max sup 0.3 m depth : Rain Gauge mod
FU max sup 0.3 m depth : Gauged Aow mod
Figure 33 : FLI Flood extent with a depth of at least 30 cm and official flood risk map
101
Results and discussion
Figure 34 : FL2 Flood extent with a depth of at least 30 cm and official flood risk map
The match is rather good for FL 1 and a bit less for FL2, the two events are in 10
years return period range but FL 1 is the second largest discharge in a 28 years series
while FL2 is the 5th •
The Table 25 provides the ratio between the area classified as high risk and the
extent of the 30 cm depth during the two flood events: The convergence of the two
assessments (probabilistic from the Region Wallonne,event based for the present
study) converge remarkably weIl for the Gauged Flow and Rain Gauge Modelled.
The 3b42 based modelled exhibits a sharp divergence which is quite likely
underestimated for the reason expressed in para 4.7.2.
Table 25 : Ratio of FLI et FL2 flood extent with a depth superior to 30 cm and area c1assified as high risk
102
Conclusions
5 Conclusions
The small size of the flood plain limits the extent of the conclusions but the fact that
it was possible to model it given the limited resources in expertise and software
license is a rather reassuring fact. The match with the official flood risk map (Region
Wallonne, 2010) is also a positive element to recommend this approach for assessing
risk with small chunk of area at a time. As ISIS Professional could be rented on
monthly basis, a large variety of cost options could be considered to prepare a flood
map. The annual estimated cost of flood damages reaching 30 billions USD
software may not be the most economically efficient. This also advocates that flood
modelling" graduation. Flood limits markers should be promoted and made available
The model and optimization algorithm seem to perform weIl outside UK. The
hydrological properties of the European Soil Database (1RC, 2010), the Corine Land
Cover 2000 database (Agency, 2000) provide good correlations to propagate the data
foster transboundaries collaboration. The experienced gained with the ReFH method
is probably worth considering but basin wide methods are probably more likely to
appeal to the pragmatic planner than national standards levelling the actual diversity
103
Conclusions
Without any doubt, this is the most disappointing part of the present study. The 3b42
data are clearly inappropriate for winter flood modelling close the 50° Lat N. Many
factors concur in this inadequacy : the precipitation radar does not coyer beyond the
38°, the ground validation station are aU in lower latitude and the ground elevation
does not seem perfectly included in the niin retrieval algorithme The low level of rain
overestimate the rain event reported by 3b42. This distorts the simulated hydrograph
This was somehow to be expected as the literature review did not identify any
hours on a global coverage. The launch is schedule for July 2013.(NASA, 2010a)
The LIDAR data are getting sorne popularity because the high spatial resolution and
their average elevation accuracy. The present study observed that the last pulse is far
to be always the soillevel. Trees along the river have often masked the river
bed/pound level. The time was too short to investigate the physical causes of this
error and the supplier of the data (Region Wallonne) had no explanation. The
-.~.":_ -.~ -
104
Conclusions
interpolation of levels between consistent ones was long and tedious but the small
cross-sections. This program is quite unique and highly relevant in the context of
The rainfall data at 1 hour timestep were a considerable load (266,640 records) but
disabled and logical tests had to be based 'o n numerical data only.
ISIS 1D performed the modelling of the 613 hours of FL2 at 10 sec timestep in a
very reasonable time : 235 seconds. This was performed on a computer with Intel
The 1D2D modelling of the same FL2 event took 24.5 minutes on a computer with
The calibration for ReFH package took 12 minutes, running the model with the FL2
A Python script using the IDW object of ArcGIS 9.3 would have taken 9 days to
compute the whole period of rain data for the ID W of the Semois catchment.
105
Conclusions
observations
The 3b42 data do not provide any usable flood prediction tools at the location of the
present study. The rainfall-runoffmodel ReFH forced with rain gauges data, allows
sorne useful evaluation of the extent of a flood plain but many of the discharge
impact such as the average overflow depth are estimated with a bias of 56%. (see
Table 23 : Maximum stages and overflow depth). This may distort quite significantly
the design of flood defence structures. Th~ cost of flood damages and flood defences
2006, Beven, 2004, Beven, 1996, Beven, 1993, Beven and Binley, 1992, Degré et
al., 2008, Faulkner and Barber, 2009) turns the infrastruc~e investment into a
casino's bet if carried out without consistent observation of the actual runoff.
The various attempt to recalibrate the 3b42 data ((Fotopoulos et al., 2010) or to use a
regional algorithm for satellite rainfall (STISEN et al., 2010) have been successful at
reducing the error and are like1y to be emulated in the near future.
The 1D2D mode1 of the present study could be used as a benchmark for a variety of
3b42 data could be attempted although for the winter period the POD appears very
weak and is likely to distort the hydrograph beyond utility. Combination of satellite
borne data with ground radar have a very potential prospect as described by
106
Conclusions
More attention should be dedicated to the mass balance analysis for the ID2D model
107
Bibliography
6 Bibliography
108
Bibliography
109
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