Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Damned Lies
and Statistics
i l lu st r at i o n s by
b i l l m ay e r
R
Remember the old saw that figures don’t lie,
bers from the Media, Politicians and Activists (University of California Press), would
probably not be so kind to the figures. Indeed, Best, who teaches sociology and crimi-
nal justice at the University of Delaware, plainly spends a good portion of his time at
the office teasing elusive truths from the witches’ brew of numbers that pervade debates
over public policy. ¶ This witty, well-written excerpt – from a chapter of the book titled
“mutant statistics” – is apt to leave the reader more depressed than angry. For much of
by joel best
Many mutant statistics have their roots in number seem even more credible.
innumeracy – difficulty grasping the meaning As statistics gain wide circulation, number
of numbers and calculations – which is wide- laundering occurs. The figures become hard-
spread. Not only is much of the general pub- er to challenge because everyone has heard
lic innumerate, but also the advocates pro- them and everyone assumes they must be
moting social and economic problems are correct. This is especially true when numbers
often not any better. They may become con- reinforce our beliefs or interests. (“Of course
fused about a number’s precise meaning. that’s true!”)
They may misunderstand how a problem has Consider one widely circulated statistic
been defined, how it has been measured, or about the dangers of anorexia nervosa.
what sort of sampling method has been used. Anorexia usually occurs in young women,
At the same time, their commitment to their and some feminists argue that it is a response
cause (“After all, it’s a big problem!”) may to societal pressures for women to be beauti-
lead them to improve a statistic, to make the ful and to cultural standards that equate slen-
numbers seem more dramatic, more com- derness with beauty. Advocates who were
pelling. Some mutant statistics may be prod- seeking to draw attention to the problem esti-
ucts of advocates’ cynicism, of their deliberate mated that 150,000 American women were
attempts to distort information in order to anorexic, and noted that anorexia could be
make their claims more convincing. This fatal.
seems particularly likely when mutation At some point, some feminists began re-
occurs at the hands of large institutions that porting that each year 150,000 women died
twist information into the form most favor- from anorexia. (In fact, only about 70 deaths
able to their interests. But mutation can also a year are attributed to anorexia.) This simple
be a product of sincere, albeit muddled, inter- transformation – turning an estimate for the
pretations by innumerate advocates. total number of anorexic women into the
Once someone utters a mutant statistic, annual number of fatalities – produced a dra-
there’s a good chance that those who hear it matic, memorable statistic. Advocates repeat-
will accept it and repeat it. Innumerate advo- ed the erroneous figure in books, in newspa-
cates influence their audiences: the media per columns, on talk shows and so on. There
repeat mutant statistics and the public accepts were soon numerous sources for the mistaken
– or does not challenge – whatever numbers number. A student searching for material for
the media present. A respected commentator a term paper on anorexia, for instance, had a
may hear a statistic and repeat it, making the good chance of encountering – and repeating