Company Report | Q4FY11 Result Update

LONG TERM INVESTMENT CALL

10 May 2011 Accumulate

Industry Power Q4FY11 Result Highlights

CMP (INR) 110
Target (INR) 124 Revenue for the quarter increased by 325%, YoY to INR 8,556 mn.
Upside / Downside (%) 12.7 Revenue for the year was INR 21,064 mn, up 384%, YoY. The growth in
52 week High/Low (INR) 145/107 revenue is largely due to the addition of 1320 MW power generation
240 capacity in FY11, taking the total power generation capacity of Adani
Market Cap (INR BN)
Power to 1980 MW.
3M Avg. Volumes (000’s) 1283
P/Bv (FY12e) 2.5x
Merchant realisations have increased to INR 4.5/kwh for the quarter
while the PPA rate was at INR 2.88/kwh. As far as full year is concerned
Shareholding Pattern (%)
the merchant tariff is at INR 4.77/kwh and the PPA at INR 2.79/kwh. The
Non
Institutions management expects merchant rates to increase in Q1FY12.
Institutions 15%
11%
EBITDA for the quarter was INR 5,125 mn, up 337%, YoY. EBITDA for
the year was INR 12,158 mn, up 397%, YoY. EBITDA margin for the
quarter saw an improvement of 159 bps, YoY to 59.9%. EBITDA was
higher than Unicon Estimates.

Promoters
PAT for the quarter was INR 1,743 mn, up 77%, YoY. PAT for the year
74%
stood at INR 5,238 mn, up 207%, YoY. PAT margin at 20.4% for the
quarter was significantly lower, primarily due to higher tax expense as
compared to same quarter last year. Similarly, PAT margin for the year
Stock Performance
was 24.9%. PAT was lower than Unicon estimates.
200

Operational Parameters – Q4FY11

150 Gross Generation – 3,007 mn units
Units Sold – 2,729 mn units
Avg. Realization – INR 3.14/kwh
100
Avg. PLF – 89%

50 Operational Parameters – FY11

Jul

Sep

Jan
Nov
May

Mar

Gross Generation – 7,586 mn units

Adani Power Nifty
Units Sold – 6,810 mn units
Avg. Realization – INR 3.09/kwh
Performance (%) Avg. PLF – 85%

1 Month 3 Months 1 Year Outlook & Valuation

APL -10.2 -13.2 -7.9
NIFTY -5.7 2.9 10.6 Adani Power is currently implementing 16,500 MW of power generation
* Source: Bloomberg, Unicon Research projects across different locations in India. With the commissioning of
new units at the Mundra Power plant Adani's project execution remains
(INR Mn) on track and we can see high earnings growth visibility. With mines in
Particulars Actual Estimates Indonesia, the company has better control on cost and supply of fuel and
Total Income 8,556 7,178 is better poised as compared to its peers. The average PPA sell for the
EBIDTA 5,125 4,594 company is about 70-75%, and balance goes to merchant. This gives an
Reported PAT 1,743 2,225 assurance of a steady cash flow for the future. At CMP, the stock trades
* Source: Bloomberg, Unicon Research
at 2.5x its FY12 book value estimate. We recommend Accumulate with a
price target of INR 124.
Analyst
Amish Pansuria | apansuria@unicon.in

Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries. Pvt Ltd.

Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in
Financials

(INR Mn)
Q4 FY11 Q4 FY10 Y-o-Y FY 11 FY 10 Y-o-Y
Net Revenue 8,556 2,013 325% 21,064 4,349 384%
Operating Exp. 3,431 839 309% 8,907 1,903 368%
EBITDA 5,125 1,174 337% 12,158 2,446 397%
EBITDA (%) 59.9% 58.3% 159 bps 57.7% 56.2% 147 bps
Depreciation 711 177 302% 1,803.7 353 410%
EBIT 4,414 997 343% 10,354 2,092 395%
EBIT (%) 51.6% 49.5% 207 bps 49.2% 48.1% 104 bps
Interest 962 210 358% 2303 377 511%
Other Income 60 319 -81% 186 319 -42%
Tax Provision 1,768 123 1343% 3,000 327 817%
Tax Rate (%) 50.4% 11.1% 3928 bps 36.4% 16.1% 2035 bps
PAT 1,743 983 77% 5,238 1,708 207%
Extraordinary Items 0 0 NA 0 0 NA
Reported PAT 1,743 983 77% 5,238 1,708 207%
Reported PAT (%) 20.4% 48.8% -2847 bps 24.9% 39.3% -1441 bps
EPS 0.8 0.47 70% 2.4 0.82 193%
Source: Company, Unicon Research

Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries. Pvt Ltd.

Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in
 Unicon Investment Ranking Methodology

Rating Buy Accumulate Hold Reduce Sell

Return Range >= 20% 10% to 20% -10% to 10% -10% to -20% <= -20%

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Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in