nigeria

workforce profile no.22july 2010

nigeria
Workforce Profile
Ngozi OnyejeliNigeriaCameroonNiger

About this Statistical Profile

Organizationsstrivingtobe employers-of-choice in
differentcountriesaroundtheworldneed access to current
information abouttheeconomic,social,political,and
demographiccharacteristicsofthe
countrieswheretheiremployeeslive andwork.
This Country Profile is part of a
setofresourcesaboutNigeriaavailable on the website of the
GlobalPerspectivesInstitute:
www.bc.edu/agingandwork.

introduction to nigeria
NigeriaisthemostpopulouscountryinAfricaandtheeighthmostpopulo
uscountryinthe world.1 It is a member of the Commonwealth of
Nations and is also listed among the “NextEleven” economies.
Nigeria’s economy is the second largest economy in Africa and
one ofthe fastest growing in the world, with a growth rate of 9.0%
in 2008 and 8.3% in 2009.2
Nigeria is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, with
2.1 million barrels/day. Italso has enormous natural gas reserves,
vast agricultural lands, natural resources and adynamic private
sector. However, the country is heavily dependent on its crude oil
export,which accounts for over half of federal government
revenue and over 90% of exportearnings. Despite the large
economic role of oil, the agricultural sector is the biggestemployer
in the country, employing over two thirds of the population and
accounting for athird of Nigeria’s GDP.3
A country with longstanding history of ethnic and religious
tensions, Nigeria attainedindependence in 1960, following 19th
century British control and a series of constitutionsafter World
War II. After nearly 16 years of military rule, Nigeria adopted a
new constitutionin 1999, completing a peaceful transition to
civilian government. Having experiencedirregularities in previous
elections in 2003 and 2007, Nigeria is currently undergoing
itslongest period of civilian rule since independence.1 April 2007
marked the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in the
country’s history.
Following independence, Nigeria’s government has continuously
faced the twin tasksof reforming a petroleum-based economy,
whose revenues have been
squanderedthroughcorruptionandmismanagement,andinstitutiona
lizingdemocracy.Recently,the government has instituted a
number of reforms to battle political instability, corruption,poor
infrastructure, and poor macroeconomic management. Past ruling
governmentshave been overly reliant on the capital-intensive oil
sector, which provides 95% of foreignexchange earnings and
about 80% of budgetary revenues, causing attempts to reformand
diversify the economy to fail. The current ruling government has
attempted to rectifythissituationthroughaseriesofprivate-
publicpartnershipsonpublicgoods,suchasthe provision of
electricity and the building of roads.
Sponsored by:
agework@bc.edu
 2
http://www.bc.edu/agingandwork
labor force highlights
As of 2007, about 66% of the Nigerian population was in the labor
force, and the àcountry’s population growth rate between 2005-
2010 is estimated at 2.3% per annum.4
Labor force participation in Nigeria for adult women was 38.7% in
2007, a rise from à38.1% in 2005 and 37.0% in 2000. For adult
men, labor force participation has been declining from 73.7% in
2000 to 71.7% in 2005, and then to 70.6% in 2007.4 The
“economically active population” comprises all persons of either
sex above the age of 14 who furnish the supply of labor for the
production of goods and services during a specified time
reference period.
The unemployment rate in Nigeria was at 4.9% according to the
2007 estimate
According to 1999 estimates, the Nigerian labor force by
occupation is 70% for àagriculture, 10% for industry, and 20%
for services.4
70.9% of men and 74.8% of women in the total civilian employed
labor force àreported being self-employed in 2005
36.5% of women and 65.7% of men are employed in Nigeria. This
is by far lower than Kenya, where 79.9% of men and 66.6% of
women are employed. South Africa has the lowest percent of its
population employed with 48.4% of men and 34.3% of women in
employment.
Source: UN (2009)6agework@bc.edu 3

Among selected GNI countries, Nigeria has one of the lowest rates
of employed women, as percent of the total population. Cambodia
has the highest percentage of its total population employed at
84.9% for men and 73.4% for women. Sudan has the lowest
percentage for women at 27.9%, and Tajikistan has the lowest for
men with 59.3%.
Source: UN (2009)6
Nigeria shows strong gender inequality amongst the regional
African countries, but there is a better margin when compared
against the Asian countries within the same GNI.
Source: UN (2009)6

The highest percentage of men in the workforce is among those

aged 45-49 (99.2%) compared to just 67% of their female
counterparts. The highest percentage of women in the workforce
(69.5%) is among those aged 50-54.
Source: ILO (2010)4http://www.bc.edu/agingandwork 4

In 2008, the highest employment rate in Nigeria was among

people aged 50-54 (83.5%). South Africa recorded the lowest for
that age range for the region (65.8%). Ghana’s highest was
among workers aged 40-44 (92.6%) which was also the highest
for the region.

Economically active population rates from 2010 to 2020 show just

a meager projected change in the decade.
economic highlights
Gross Domestic Product per capita in Nigeria was $2,300* in
2008, which is an àincrease from the estimate of $2,100* in
2006 and of $2,200* in 2007. Nigeria is ranked 182 for GDP per
capita in comparison to the world.1 (*Data are in 2008 US dollars)

The gross domestic product growth of Nigeria shrunk by 1.1% in

2008 as it dropped àto 5.3% from 6.4% in 2007 and 6.2% in
2006. The country is ranked 82 for GDP growth in comparison to
the world.1

Nigeria recorded its highest GDP growth in 2003 and 2004 with
10.3% and 10.6%, respectively, which was also the highest so far
for the region. Gambia had the lowest regional GDP growth in
2002 with -3.3%. With the recession, it is unlikely that Nigeria will
be able to reach over 10% again.

Though Nigeria has had the highest external debt through the
years with a peak in 2005 at 8.82 billion, the country’s GDP has
also risen since then from crude oil export.
Source: UN (2009)6 http://www.bc.edu/agingandwork 6
Nigeria’s External Debt
In August of 2000 Nigeria received a debt-restructuring
agreement from the Paris Club after signing a stand-by
agreement with the International Moneary Fund (IMF). In
conjunction with this agreement, the IMF also gave Nigeria $1
billion in credit, with both offers being contingent upon Nigeria
instituting economic reforms. Failure to meet the spending and
exchange rate targets as stipulated in the IMF program led to
Nigeria’s withdrawal in April 2002. This withdrawl further
exacerbated their economic problems by making the country
ineligible for additional debt forgiveness from the Paris Club.1 In a
bid to rectify the situation, the government instituted several
reforms such as privatizing the nation’s four oil refineries,
deregulating fuel prices and implementing the National Economic
Empowerment Development Strategy (a local program that was
modeled after the IMF’s Poverty eradication and Growth Facility
for fiscal and monetary management) in 2003. With the
implementation of these reforms, Nigeria successfully won a debt
relief deal from the Paris Club in 2005. This deal attempted to
eliminate the $18 billion of debt in exchange for $12 billion in
payments (a total package worth $30 billion of Nigeria’s total $37
billion external debt), with the caveat that the country agree to
strict IMF reviews. Since 2008 the government has also instituted
various widespread market reforms at the urging of the IMF, such
as controlling inflation by blocking excessive wage demands,
modernizing the banking sector and resolving regional
disagreements over income distribution from the oil sector. The
country’s strong GDP increase in 2007 and 2008 was a result of
high global crude oil prices and increased oil exports.3
agework@bc.edu 7
demographic highlights
Nigeria still remains the most populous nation in Africa. In 2009,
the population of àNigeria was estimated at 149,229,090, with
Ghana at 23,887,812, and South Africa at 49,052,489.6
Nigeria is composed of more than 250 ethnic groups. The three
major ethnic groups àinclude: Hausa and Fulani (29%), Yoruba
(21%), and Igbo [Ibo] (18%).3
The total fertility rate for Nigerian women from 2005-2010 was
5.3 children per àwoman, according to Nigerian demographic
estimates.1 Total fertility rate indicates the average number of
children born to a woman during the reproductive span of her life.
The portion of the Nigerian population aged 65 and older
comprises 3.1% of the àtotal population. In comparison, Ghana
has 3.6% and South Africa has the highest in the region with 5.4%
of its population aged 65 and older.6

Nigeria had the lowest median age compared to Ghana and South
Africa for the year 2009.

Nigeria had a total median age of 19 (male,18.9 and women,

19.1). In comparison, Ghana had a total median age of 24.4
(male, 24.1 and female, 24.8), and South Africa has total of 20.7
(male, 20.5 and female, 21).
Source: CIA (2009)3

The life expectancy at birth for the Nigerian population in 2009

was 46.9 years (46.2 for men and 47.8 for women).
Source: CIA (2009)3http://www.bc.edu/agingandwork 8
In Nigeria, the sex ratio for the total population is 1.04
men/women and for 65+ àyears, it is 0.94 men/women.1 In
comparison:
In Ghana, the ratio is 1 • men/women for the total population and
0.85 man/woman of those aged 65+years.
In South Africa, the ratio is 0.99 • men/women for the total
population and 0.69 men/women of those aged 65+years.
In Nigeria, there is a bulge in the population aged 15-64 years,
which was 54.8% of àthe total population in 2005, 55.1% in
2007, and rising to 55.5% in 2009. Regional countries show
similar dynamics for some age groups, with Ghana showing an
increase from 57.4% in 2005 to 58.3% in 2007 and 59.2% in
2009.7 (See Figures 10a-10d).
Figure 10a. Population Distribution, Regional Comparison, 2009
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%NigeriaGambiaGhanaSouth
Africa0-14 15-64 65+
53.65.465.859.13.62.83.155.528.941.543.637.3
41.5% of the total population of Nigeria is between 0-14 years,
and 55.5% are between 15-64 years, while 3.1% are aged 65+.
65.8% of the South African population is between 15-64 years,
which is the highest for the region in that category.
Source: CIA (2009)3
Source: US Census Bureau (2009)7agework@bc.edu 9
Source: US Census Bureau (2009)7
Source: US Census Bureau
(2009)7http://www.bc.edu/agingandwork 10
Literacy level in Nigeria
Nigeria’s population has a literacy rate of 68%, with 75.7% of the
female population and 60.6% of the male population being
literate. These figures are relatively high in comparison to
regional countries such as Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco and
South Africa, and it is also one of the highest in Africa according
to the 2003 population estimates (see Figure 11).5
The 6-3-3-4 educational policy system was introduced in 1982.
This consists of 6 years of elementary school, a two-tiered high
school education (3-year junior and 3-year senior respectively),
and finally, 4 years of university education.5 There are fully-
funded government elementary schools all over Nigeria, and the
government also runs various high schools, technical institutions
and universities in states across the nation. In conjunction with
these educational reforms, the government has also approved
hundreds of private schools in order to cater to those who prefer
receiving education from a private institution.5
While 85.1% of Kenya’s total population is literate, Nigeria has
68% literacy and Gambia is the lowest with 40.1%. The figure also
shows that generally, men seem to be more literate than the
women, suggesting possible inequality in educational
opportunities.
Source: CIA (2009)3agework@bc.edu 11
references
1 The World Bank. (2009). World development indicators
database. Retrieved December 15, 2009, from http://ddp-
ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?
&CF=1&REPORT_ID=9147&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED&HF
=N&WSP=N
2 Internationa Monetary Fund (IMF). (2008). Nigeria needs
sustained reforms to build on success, IMF Survey, 37(3).
Retrieved January 31, 2010, from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/2008/033108.pdf
3 CIA. (2009). World fact book, 2009. Retrieved December 10th,
2009, from www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/ni.html
4 International Labour Organisation (ILO). (2010). Laborsta
internet. Retrieved January 15, 2010, from
http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest
5 National Bureau of Statistics. (2005). Social statistics of Nigeria.
Retrieved January 20, 2010, from
http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/nbsapps/social_statistics/SSD
%20final.pdf
6 United Nation (UN). (2009). UN data. Retrieved January 22,
2010, from http://data.un.org/Search.aspx?q=nigeria
7 US Census Bureau. (2009). International statistics. Retrieved
February 15, 2010, from
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

Nigeria Demographics Profile 2010

Home > Nigeria

Population
152,217,341
note: estimates for this country explicitly take into account the effects of excess
mortality due to AIDS; this can result in lower life expectancy, higher infant
mortality, higher death rates, lower population growth rates, and changes in the
distribution of population by age and sex than would otherwise be expected (July
2010 est.)
Age structure
0-14 years: 41.5% (male 31,624,050/female 30,242,637)
15-64 years: 55.5% (male 42,240,641/female 40,566,672)
65 years and over: 3.1% (male 2,211,840/female 2,343,250) (2010 est.)
Median age
total: 19.1 years
male: 19 years
female: 19.2 years (2010 est.)
Population growth rate
1.966% (2010 est.)
Birth rate
36.07 births/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Death rate
16.31 deaths/1,000 population (July 2010 est.)
Net migration rate
-0.1 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Urbanization
urban population: 48% of total population (2008)
rate of urbanization: 3.8% annual rate of change (2005-10 est.)
Sex ratio
at birth: 1.06 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.05 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.94 male(s)/female
total population: 1.04 male(s)/female (2010 est.)
Infant mortality rate
total: 92.99 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 98.94 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 86.69 deaths/1,000 live births (2010 est.)
Life expectancy at birth
total population: 47.24 years
male: 46.46 years
female: 48.08 years (2010 est.)
Total fertility rate
4.82 children born/woman (2010 est.)
HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate
3.1% (2007 est.)
HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS
2.6 million (2007 est.)
HIV/AIDS - deaths
170,000 (2007 est.)
Major infectious diseases
degree of risk: very high
food or waterborne diseases: bacterial and protozoal diarrhea, hepatitis A and
E, and typhoid fever
vectorborne disease: malaria and yellow fever
respiratory disease: meningococcal meningitis
aerosolized dust or soil contact disease: one of the most highly endemic areas
for Lassa fever
water contact disease: leptospirosis and shistosomiasis
animal contact disease: rabies
note: highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has been identified in this country; it
poses a negligible risk with extremely rare cases possible among US citizens who
have close contact with birds (2009)
Nationality
noun: Nigerian(s)
adjective: Nigerian
Ethnic groups
Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, is composed of more than 250 ethnic
groups; the following are the most populous and politically influential: Hausa and
Fulani 29%, Yoruba 21%, Igbo (Ibo) 18%, Ijaw 10%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio 3.5%, Tiv
2.5%
Religions
Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10%
Languages
English (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulani
Literacy
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 68%
male: 75.7%
female: 60.6% (2003 est.)
School life expectancy (primary to tertiary
education)
total: 9 years
male: 10 years
female: 8 years (2005)
Education expenditures
0.9% of GDP (1991)

Source: CIA World Factbook

Unless otherwise
Nigeria - Total fertility rate (children born/woman
Total fertility rate: 4.82 children born/woman (2010 est.)
 Total fertility
Year Rank Percent Change Date of Information
rate
2003 5.4 30 2003 est.
2004 5.53 24 2.41 % 2004 est.
2005 5.53 23 0.00 % 2005 est.
2006 5.49 23 -0.72 % 2006 est.
2007 5.45 22 -0.73 % 2007 est.
2008 5.01 32 -8.07 % 2008 est.
2009 4.91 32 -2.00 % 2009 est.
2010 4.82 29 -1.83 % 2010 est.
Definition: This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be
born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore
children according to a given fertility rate at each age. The total fertility rate (TFR) is a
more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to
births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population change in the
country. A rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a
population, resulting in relative stability in terms of total numbers. Rates above two
children indicate populations growing in size and whose median age is declining. Higher
rates may also indicate difficulties for families, in some situations, to feed and educate
their children and for women to enter the labor force. Rates below two children indicate
populations decreasing in size and growing older. Global fertility rates are in general
decline and this trend is most pronounced in industrialized countries, especially Western
Europe, where populations are projected to decline dramatically over the next 50 years.
Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is
accurate as of December 30, 2010

Country Comparison > Total fertility rate

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All Demographics: Total fertility rate en

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Rank Country Total fertility rate (children born/woman)

1 Niger 7.75

2 Mali 7.29

3 Uganda 6.77

4 Afghanistan 6.53

5 Somalia 6.52

6 Burundi 6.33

7 Yemen 6.32

8 Burkina Faso 6.28

Congo, Democratic
9 6.2
Republic of the

10 Ethiopia 6.12

11 Angola 6.12

12 Sierra Leone 5.88

13 Congo, Republic of the 5.84

14 Liberia 5.79
15 Malawi 5.59

16 Oman 5.53

17 Mayotte 5.5

18 Benin 5.49

19 Sao Tome and Principe 5.33

20 Chad 5.31

21 Rwanda 5.25

22 Guinea 5.2

23 Mozambique 5.18

24 Zambia 5.15

25 Madagascar 5.14

26 Equatorial Guinea 5.08

27 Djibouti 5.06

28 Gambia, The 5.04

29 Gaza Strip 5.03

30 Senegal 4.95

31 Nigeria 4.91

32 Comoros 4.84

33 Togo 4.79

34 Eritrea 4.72

35 Gabon 4.65
36 Guinea-Bissau 4.65

37 Kenya 4.56

38 Sudan 4.48

39 Tanzania 4.46

40 Mauritania 4.45

41 Laos 4.41

42 Cameroon 4.33

43 Samoa 4.16

44 Central African Republic 4.14

45 Cote d'Ivoire 4.12

46 Kiribati 4.04

47 Iraq 3.86

48 Saudi Arabia 3.83

49 Haiti 3.81

50 Paraguay 3.75

51 Zimbabwe 3.69

52 Ghana 3.68

53 Papua New Guinea 3.62

54 Pakistan 3.6

55 Marshall Islands 3.59

56 Solomon Islands 3.52

57 Guatemala 3.47
58 Belize 3.36

59 American Samoa 3.29

60 East Timor 3.28

61 Philippines 3.27

62 Honduras 3.27

63 Swaziland 3.24

64 West Bank 3.22

65 Bolivia 3.17

66 Syria 3.12

67 Libya 3.08

68 Cape Verde 3.07

69 Lesotho 3.06

70 Cambodia 3.04

71 El Salvador 3

72 Tajikistan 2.99

Turks and Caicos

73 2.95
Islands

74 Malaysia 2.95

75 Tuvalu 2.91

Micronesia, Federated
76 2.89
States of

77 Nauru 2.85

78 Dominican Republic 2.76

79 Kuwait 2.76
 80 Israel 2.75

81 Bangladesh 2.74

82 India 2.72

83 Namibia 2.69

84 Egypt 2.66

85 Fiji 2.65

86 Kyrgyzstan 2.65

87 Nepal 2.64

88 Botswana 2.6

89 Nicaragua 2.57

90 Guam 2.54

91 Panama 2.53

92 Morocco 2.51

93 Ecuador 2.51

94 Bahrain 2.5

95 Vanuatu 2.5

96 Cook Islands 2.49

97 Venezuela 2.48

98 Colombia 2.46

99 Qatar 2.45

100 Faroe Islands 2.44

101 United Arab Emirates 2.42

102 Jordan 2.39

103 Bhutan 2.38

104 South Africa 2.38

105 Peru 2.37

106 Argentina 2.35

107 Mexico 2.34

108 Indonesia 2.31

109 Saint Kitts and Nevis 2.26

110 Tonga 2.25

111 Jamaica 2.25

112 Grenada 2.23

113 Mongolia 2.23

114 Turkmenistan 2.22

115 Turkey 2.21

116 Brazil 2.21

117 Greenland 2.19

118 New Caledonia 2.18

119 Costa Rica 2.14

120 Bahamas, The 2.1

121 New Zealand 2.1

122 Dominica 2.09

123 Antigua and Barbuda 2.07

124 United States 2.05

125 Azerbaijan 2.04

126 Guyana 2.03

127 Albania 2.01

128 Bermuda 1.99

129 Sri Lanka 1.99

130 Suriname 1.99

Saint Vincent and the

131 1.98
Grenadines

132 France 1.98

133 Netherlands Antilles 1.97

Saint Pierre and

134 1.97
Miquelon

135 Korea, North 1.96

136 Uzbekistan 1.95

137 Seychelles 1.93

138 Uruguay 1.92

139 Chile 1.92

140 French Polynesia 1.92

141 Brunei 1.91

142 Iceland 1.9

143 Maldives 1.9

144 Burma 1.89

145 Cayman Islands 1.88

146 Kazakhstan 1.88

147 Wallis and Futuna 1.87

148 Virgin Islands 1.85

149 Lebanon 1.85

150 Ireland 1.85

151 Aruba 1.85

152 Saint Lucia 1.84

153 Vietnam 1.83

154 Palau 1.82

155 Mauritius 1.81

156 Algeria 1.79

157 China 1.79

158 Australia 1.78

159 Luxembourg 1.78

160 Norway 1.78

161 Monaco 1.75

162 Anguilla 1.75

163 Denmark 1.74

164 Finland 1.73

165 Tunisia 1.72

166 Trinidad and Tobago 1.72

167 British Virgin Islands 1.71

168 Puerto Rico 1.71

169 Iran 1.71

170 Barbados 1.68

171 Sweden 1.67

172 United Kingdom 1.66

173 Netherlands 1.66

174 Thailand 1.65

175 Belgium 1.65

176 Man, Isle of 1.65

177 Gibraltar 1.65

178 Cuba 1.61

179 Canada 1.58

Macedonia, The Former

180 1.58
Yugoslav Republic of

181 Jersey 1.57

182 Saint Helena 1.56

183 Liechtenstein 1.52

184 Malta 1.51

185 Portugal 1.49

186 Switzerland 1.45

187 Georgia 1.44

188 Croatia 1.42

189 Estonia 1.42

190 Bulgaria 1.41

191 Germany 1.41

192 Guernsey 1.41

193 Russia 1.41

194 Romania 1.39

195 Austria 1.39

196 Greece 1.37

197 Armenia 1.36

198 San Marino 1.36

199 Hungary 1.35

200 Slovakia 1.35

201 Andorra 1.33

202 Italy 1.31

203 Spain 1.31

204 Latvia 1.3

205 Slovenia 1.28

206 Poland 1.28

207 Moldova 1.27

208 Ukraine 1.26

209 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.25

 210 Belarus 1.24

211 Czech Republic 1.24

212 Montserrat 1.23

213 Lithuania 1.23

214 Korea, South 1.21

215 Japan 1.21

Northern Mariana
216 1.15
Islands

217 Taiwan 1.14

218 Singapore 1.09

219 Hong Kong 1.02

220 Macau 0.91

Total fertility rate - World

Like many Nigerians, hitting up the Nigerian newspapers websites daily for news updates is like
a daily dose of depression and anger combined. All major news in Nigeria will predictably fit
into any one of three categories: brazen primitive politics (often with no clear policy direction or
ideological conviction, but with the twin aim of acquiring power and wealth), corruption (often
of the most primitive types with no fear of accountability), and destruction (needless violence
and deaths from road and fire accidents, diseases, buildings collapse, and robbery attacks). Yet as
bad as things are, there’s a gathering storm that threatens to sweep away whatever may be left of
our children’s future. It’s hard to imagine but if we don’t control Nigeria’s growing population
problem, there’s a very good chance that our children will look back at the current times (yes, as
bad as they are) with nostalgia, as Nigeria’s golden age!
While growing population is clearly a global issue, and a high population by itself is not
necessarily deleterious to any country, Nigeria’s peculiar population growth is significantly out
of sync with all other economic and national growth indices. To put this problem in perspective,
let’s consider some hard data: Nigeria is the 32nd largest country in the world in terms of area
(923,768 sq km) but is the 8th most populous (158,259,000). In Africa, Nigeria ranks 14th in area,
ranked 18th in nominal GDP (2008), but ranks 1st in population! According to the United Nation’s
World Population Prospects (2008 Revision Population Database), Nigeria’s population in 1950
was 36,680,000. In 2010 Nigeria’s population is estimated at 158,259,000 and is projected to be
between 254,000,000 (low variant) and 326,000,000 (high variant) in 2050! The most realistic,
not by any means less shocking, estimate of Nigeria’s population in 2050 is 289,000,000
(medium variant). The low, medium, and high projection variants are based on fertility rates in
the different countries, among other assumptions. West and east African countries including
Nigeria generally have the highest fertility rates in the world, with 4 to 7 children born per
woman in her child bearing years. The fertility rate in Nigeria between 1950 and 2010 has been
5 to 6 children per woman, and all three projections variants assumes that the rate will tend to
slow down to between 2 to 3 children per woman in 2050. Very optimistic assumption if you ask
me, considering we have not slowed down that significantly in 60 years (1950 – 2010). So,
without any intervention in the status quo, Nigeria is heading towards a population blowout with
the current reproduction rates.
Let’s consider two countries that are most comparable to Nigeria in area: Tanzania (945,087 sq
km) and Venezuela (912,050 sq km). Tanzania’s estimated population for 2010 is 45,040,000,
and will have an estimated population of 109,450,000 in 2050 (medium projection). Venezuela’s
estimated population for 2010 is 29,044,000, and will have an estimated population of
42,042,000 in 2050 (medium variant). While Tanzania’s reproduction rate is comparable to
Nigeria’s, its population density in 2050 is projected to still be significantly less than Nigeria’s
current population density in 2010. Venezuela’s will be way less! Nigeria on the other hand will
probably have about the current population of the United States cramped on a land about twice
the size of California.
Most estimates suggested that the world will have at least 2 billion more inhabitants in 2050
(approximately 9 billion people) than there are currently (approximately 7 billion in 2010/2011).
The impact is likely to be more local than global, especially in countries where the growth rate is
surging too far ahead of real development. God did not give us the smarts so we can just sit
around, fold our hands and do nothing, and then expect that things will just work out somehow.
In anticipation of a future scramble, China is acquiring resource based assets all over the world
to power its economy into the future; UAE is investing petro-dollars in infrastructure, tourism
and technology thereby laying the foundation for its post-oil future. The United States and some
European countries are investing in green technology and alternative energy to ensure their
economic dominance into the near future and to ensure that tomorrow’s jobs are created and
sustained in their domain. The leaders of Nigeria, the most populous African country (by far) are
dragging their oil-soaked feet and have no plan beyond winning the next election by any means
possible. They mostly aspire to acquire political power just for the sake of it, and to control all
the resources of the state to the benefit of their friends and family. Those with some decent
intentions lack the management and political skills to bring about any lasting change.
The world will be a different place in 2050. Technology will rule virtually every
aspect of life, and because there will be at least 30% more people living on this
planet, it will also be a very competitive place. Renewable energy will mostly power
our way of life, good old oil (if Nigeria still has any left) will be on the decline, if not
already out as the primary energy source. Every nation’s land and natural resources
is limited, and unless invading our neighbours is part of Nigeria’s future
management plan, we must come up with a plan to manage our reproduction rate
now!

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