Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging ...

raciela Kaminsky, Carmen Reinhart, Institute for International Economics

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Authors: Carmen Reinhart

Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Authors: Graciela Kaminsky

Warning System for Emerging Markets
Authors: Morris Goldstein
by Morris Goldstein ,
Graciela Kaminsky and
International Finance/
Carmen Reinhart Macroeconomics: International
Monetary Fund
June 2000 • 150 pp. ISBN paper 0-88132-237-7 • $10.00

International Finance/
Buy This Book Online and Save 50% Off List Price Macroeconomics: Global Financial
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News Release International Finance/
The European currency crises of 1992-93, the Mexican crisis of Macroeconomics: Finance,
1994-95, and especially the Asian/global crisis of 1997-98, have all Investment, and Debt
E-Book Version contributed to a heightened interest in the early warning signals of
financial crises. This pathbreaking study presents a comprehensive
"I am convinced that it battery of empirical tests on the performance of alternative early
will contribute to warning indicators for emerging-market economies that should
develop an early prove useful in the construction of a more effective global warning Case for an International Banking
warning system needed system. Standard
so much to avoid
severe emerging
markets crises in the Not only are the authors able to draw conclusions about which Argentina and the Fund: From
future." specific indicators have sent the most reliable early warning signals Triumph to Tragedy
of currency and banking crises in emerging economies, they also
Dr. Rolf E. Breuer test the out-of-sample performance of the model during the Asian After the Washington Consensus:
Deutsche Bank crisis and find that it does a good job of identifying the most
Restarting Growth and Reform in
vulnerable economies. In addition, they show how the early Latin America
"(Provides) a definitive warning system can be used to construct a "composite" crisis
presentation of the
'early warning indicator'
indicator to weigh the importance of alternative channels of cross- Argentina y el FMI: Del triunfo a
methodology for crisis country "contagion" of crises, and to generate information about la tragedia
prediction ... Without a the recovery path from crises.
doubt, this is a book
that I would want to
have on my shelves." This timely study comes on the eve of impending changes at the
International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines how it
Peter Montiel
reacts to financial crises. Moreover, the study provides "... a wealth
International of valuable elements for anyone investigating and forecasting
Monetary Fund adverse developments in emerging markets as well as industrial
countries," according to Ewoud Schuitemaker, vice president of the
"... the best available economics department at ABN AMRO Bank.
effort to build an 'early
warning system'."
Contents
Barry Eichengreen
University of Preface
California, Berkeley

Acknowledgments
"... a well-written and
innovative treatment of
an important topic and 1. Introduction 154.2KB

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Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging ...raciela Kaminsky, Carmen Reinhart, Institute for International Economics

should be of great
interest to both 2. Methodology 250.0KB
practitioners and
academics."
3. Empirical Results 184.3KB
Holger Wolf
Georgetown
University 4. Rating the Rating Agencies 168.9KB

5. An Assessment of Vulnerability 213.5KB

6. Contagion 173.6KB

7. The Aftermath of Crisis 146.1KB

8. Summary of Results and Concluding Remarks 164.0KB

Appendix: Data and Definitions 118.6KB

References

Index

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