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Forrester began summarizing technology trends last year to help enterprise architects create their
organizations’ technology watch lists. For this year’s list of top trends, we’ve used the same criteria —
impact, newness, and complexity — but we’ve modified the categories, merged related topics, added five
new trends, and updated all the entries with this year’s perspective. This year’s categories? “Empowered”
technologies, process-centric data and intelligence, agile and fit-to-purpose applications, and smart
technology management. Also new this year are the results from a survey we ran as input to this report
that asked respondents to rate more than 40 technologies for impact to their organization in the next
three years.
© 2010, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available
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2 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013
For Enterprise Architecture Professionals
We found some interesting differences in the technologies of interest for organizations with fewer
than 5,000 employees versus those for organizations with more than 5,000 employees. Technologies
that made the top 10 for expected impact in larger organizations that did not appear on the smaller
organizations’ shortlist were master data management, portfolio management tools, telepresence,
business rules processing, and human-centric business process management (BPM). Technologies
included in the smaller organizations’ top 10 that were not on the larger organizations’ shortlist
were security for wireless and mobile devices, social network and social media analysis, security
technology in general, and customer community platforms.
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Figure 2 Our Survey Respondents Place Their Bets On Mobility, Collaboration, BI, And Virtualization
“How much impact will the follow technology areas have in the next two years?”
Base: 65 IT professionals
(percentages may not total 100 because of rounding)
Source: August 2010 Global Technology Trends Online Survey
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· Revamped the categories. We merged the categories for social, mobile, and cloud technologies
into a single “‘empowered’ technologies” category to align with the use cases in our latest
book. We added a category for “smart technology management” to showcase the trends that
can help IT create order from the technology complexity that continues to unfold. We carried
over our two categories for “process-centric data and intelligence” and “agile and fit-to-purpose
applications” from last year’s list.
· Merged related smaller trends into broader trends reflecting business use cases. We noted
four instances where we could express individual trends as part of a broader trend: Real-time data
quality services is an inextricable part of real-time BI; cloud-based platforms and software-as-a-
service are part of the broad and evolving trend of cloud deployments in general; mobile devices,
networks, and applications are all part of business processes going mobile; and business rules
and policy-based SOA are both part of the trend to externalize rules to make applications — and
enterprises — more flexible and agile.
· Dropped lower-impact trends . . . Following the process we defined last year, we compiled the
list of competing technology trends and scored them according to our criteria (see Figure 3). To
keep the list a manageable size, we sorted them by impact and took only the top 15.
· . . . to make room for new high-impact entries. Five new high-impact trends hit our radar
screen for enterprise impact in the next three years: 1) event-driven patterns demand attention;
2) information-as-a-service (IaaS) finds a broader audience; 3) analytics target text and social
networks; 4) system management enables continued virtualization; and 5) IT embraces planning
and analysis tools to manage the future (see Figure 4).
Criteria Definition
Business/IT impact Business Capabilities that will have an impact on operating model and external
relationships compared with what the business is likely to have today
IT Positive or negative impact on major cost areas, or responsiveness or
delivery quality for a major IT function, or IT external relationships
“Newness” Technology area where firms are likely to have little or no knowledge
or experience
Complexity Complexity in terms of areas affected or uncertain strategy
SaaS and cloud-based platforms become standard. Very high High Very high
Customer community platforms integrate with business apps. High Very high High
Apps and business processes go mobile on powerful devices and High Very high High
faster networks.
Analytics target text and social networks. High Very high High
IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future. High Moderate Moderate
Further reading:
Forrester’s October 2, 2009, ”TechRadar™ For Infrastructure & Operations Professionals: Cloud Computing,
Q3 2009” report by James Staten, and Forrester’s February 22, 2010, ”SaaS Valuation Criteria” report by Liz
Herbert
Further reading:
Forrester’s April 22, 2010, “Enterprise Social Networking 2010 Market Overview” report by Rob Koplowitz,
and Forrester’s April 30, 2008, “Social Computing Changes The Enterprise Collaboration Landscape”
report by Rob Koplowitz
Complexity
Further reading:
Forrester’s January 5, 2010, “Topic Overview: Social CRM Goes Mainstream” report by William Band and
Natalie L. Petouhoff, Ph.D., and Forrester’s upcoming “Zero In On Customer Relationship
Management HEROes — The Role Of Advanced Analytics” report by James Kobielus
5-4 Apps and business processes go mobile on powerful devices and faster networks
Further reading:
Forrester’s August 24, 2010, ”Define Your Mobile Development Strategy” report by Jeffrey S. Hammond
and Forrester’s July 14, 2009, “Netbooks Remain Adjunct PCs . . . For Now” report by Paul Jackson
Further reading:
Forrester’s April 1, 2010, “How Tech Strategists Can Ride The Coming Tidal Wave Of Business Video” report
by Henry Dewing, and Forrester’s February 25, 2009, “The ROI Of Telepresence” report, by Claire Schooley
6-1 Next-gen BI takes shape combining real-time access with pervasiveness, agility, and self-service
Further reading:
Forrester’s April 22, 2010, “Agile BI Out Of The Box ” report by Boris Evelson, and Forrester’s October 23,
2009, “Trends In Data Quality” report by Rob Karel
Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-Centric Data And Intelligence (Cont.)
Further reading:
Forrester’s October 22, 2009, “Text Analytics Takes Business Insight To New Depths” report by Leslie
Owens, and Forrester’s upcoming “Zero In On CRM HEROes By Using Social Network Analysis To
Mine Influence” report by James Kobielus
Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-Centric Data And Intelligence (Cont.)
Further reading:
Forrester’s February 10, 2010, “The Forrester Wave™: Information-As-A-Service, Q1 2010” report by Noel
Yuhanna and Mike Gilpin
Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-Centric Data And Intelligence (Cont.)
Further reading:
Forrester’s October 23, 2009, “Trends 2009: Master Data Management” report by Rob Karel, and
Forrester’s February 4, 2010 “Forrester TechRadar™: Enterprise Data Integration, Q1 2010” report by Noel
Yuhanna and Rob Karel
7-1 Business rules processing and policy-based SOA move to the mainstream
Further reading:
Forrester’s October 3, 2008, “Best Practices In Implementing Business Rules” report by Mike Gualtieri and
John R. Rymer, and Forrester’s August 26, 2008, “How To Get Started On SOA Policy Management” report
by Randy Heffner
Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications (Cont.)
Further reading:
Forrester’s August 24, 2010, “The Forrester Wave™: Business Process Management Suites, Q3 2010” report
by Clay Richardson, and Forrester’s December 28, 2009, “Dynamic Case Management — An Old Idea
Catches New Fire” report by Connie Moore and Craig Le Clair
Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications (Cont.)
Further reading:
Forrester’s August 4, 2009, “The Forrester Wave™: Complex Event Processing (CEP) Platforms, Q3 2009”
report by Mike Gualtieri and John R. Rymer, and Forrester’s January 21, 2009, ”Must You Choose Between
Business Rules And Complex Event Processing Platforms?” report by Charles Brett and Mike Gualtieri
Complexity
Low: While some understanding of business workload
requirements is necessary, most infrastructure and
operations environments already have a handle on these;
this is really a matter of I&O gearing up.
Further reading:
Forrester’s December 9, 2009, “Put DCIM Into Your Automation Plans” report by Galen Schreck, and
Forrester’s July 22, 2010, “The Future Of Configuration Management” report by Galen Schreck
Further reading:
Forrester’s January 7, 2009, “The Forrester Wave™: Business Process Analysis, EA Tools, And IT Planning,
Q1 2009” report by Henry Peyret, and Forrester’s June 23, 2009, “Anatomy Of A Portfolio Management
Tool” report by Phil Murphy
Further reading:
Forrester’s January 25, 2010, “Predictions 2010: Client Virtualization” report by Benjamin Gray
Re c o m m e n dat i o n s
Empowered Organizations Are More Than The Sum Of Their Empowered Parts
Forrester’s book Empowered presents the benefits of enabling “HEROes” — that is, individual
“highly empowered and resourceful operatives” — but Forrester’s authors don’t present a future
characterized by over-the-top Technology Populism accompanied by a complete loss of central
coordination and planning.3 On the contrary, they paint a picture that will look quite familiar to
savvy enterprise architects. The empowering IT organization enables innovation by maintaining a
knowledge base of technologies that can have an impact on the business and by implementing a
process for refreshing that knowledge base. It looks for base technologies that can support a broad
array of business benefits and executes processes for cross-silo collaboration. These activities will
map directly to the EA team in many organizations. What’s missing for some EA teams that are
struggling to keep up with developing strategic artifacts while continuing to contribute to tactical
projects is the development of regular processes to assess emerging technology and support
innovation. Architects can enable a consistent stream of business value by:
· Engaging the extended virtual architecture team. With the exception of those in
organizations that maintain large central EA teams, architects must make use of subject-matter
experts (SMEs) wherever they find them. Cultivate an extended network of technology-savvy
practitioners, and encourage wiki-style contributions to emerging technology knowledge
bases. Execute processes for the regular vetting and analysis of this material.
· Establishing forums for collaborative business-IT brainstorming. EA’s recent forays
into business architecture have set the stage for more-active collaboration between IT
and the business, providing architects with a much better opportunity to understand the
business operating model and important business issues. Move these exchanges from
data collection exercises to dynamic discussions of opportunities for technology-enabled
innovation. Establish formal processes for vetting ideas and shepherding new ideas through
risk and opportunity assessment analyses and potentially forward to become pilots and
implementation projects.4
· Understanding the business impact of policies, standards, and guidelines. Many
architects have already learned the hard way that knee-jerk naysaying limits EA’s influence.
While standards are important and can in fact be critical to maintaining an organization’s
agility, most organizations don’t need one-size-fits-all standardization but rather a
thoughtful understanding of when to restrict behavior and when flexibility can be beneficial.
To standardize or not to standardize is a business decision — go beyond the standard advice
of simply trying to speak about architecture in business terms: Think business thoughts
about opportunity, risk, and risk mitigation.
Supplemental MATERIAL
Methodology
Forrester fielded its August 2010 Global Technology Trends Online Survey to 65 IT professionals by
posting the survey on our site and circulating it via Twitter. Forrester fielded the survey in August
2010 and did not provide incentives to respondents.
Endnotes
1
In 2009, Forrester began an annual series to supply input to this process by providing a technology scan of
the most likely technologies to have an impact on business and IT organizations over the next three years.
See the October 6, 2009, “The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch” report.
2
Source: Josh Bernoff and Ted Schadler, Empowered: Unleash your Employees, Energize your Customers,
Transform your Business, Harvard Business Review Press, 2010 (http://www.forrester.com/empowered).
3
Thanks to an advancing technology-native workforce, ubiquitous broadband, and abundant collaboration
and Social Computing tools, information workers can now provision their own software tools, information
sources, and social networks via the Web to support their jobs. Individual people, not IT organizations,
are fueling the next wave of IT adoption we’re calling Technology Populism. See the February 22, 2008,
“Embrace The Risks And Rewards Of Technology Populism” report.
4
Business leaders expect technology to help drive competitive differentiation, yet only a small number of
IT organizations have established a formal approach to innovation with clear roles, responsibilities, and
accountabilities. Even fewer are relying on their EA teams to lead innovation efforts, though architects are
uniquely qualified for the role. With a small change in focus and a collaborative approach, architects have
an opportunity to become their organization’s driving force for IT innovation. See the November 4, 2008,
“Establish Enterprise Architects As IT Innovation Champions” report.
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