Professional Documents
Culture Documents
AND DEVELOPMENT
Copyright 2011
PHILIPPINES ENERGY POLICY AND
DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
*Adam Rein is a co-founder at Altaeros Energies, a remote wind technology company, and an
early founder of SolSolution, a nonprofit to help schools go solar while spurring clean energy
education. The author holds an M.B.A. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School
of Management, a master’s in public administration from the Harvard University Kennedy School of
Government, and a B.A. in ethics, politics, and economics from Yale University. His past research
has covered a range of energy topics, including U.S. advanced coal policy, the use of microfinance to
spur clean energy technology in the developing world, and the market for home energy-efficiency
products and services. The author has worked in Southern Africa with TechnoServe, a nonprofit, to
help the Mozambican government develop policies and market opportunities in the biofuels sector.
Karen Cruz is an energy consultant at Shaw Consultants International, a subsidiary company of
the Shaw Group. She researches and analyzes clean energy markets, technologies, and costs, with
a particular focus on solar technologies, biomass, and clean coal technologies. Her research papers
and conference presentations have covered a range of energy topics, including the role of affordable
energy in developing countries, solar photovoltaic technology and efforts to reduce carbon dioxide
concentration to under 450 ppm. The author has led financial analysis work for independent
engineering reviews of solar plants for the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Guarantee
Program and has assisted the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the Bushwick Environment
and Health Collaborative Project to research links between asthma and the environment. She is an
honors graduate of Boston University with a joint B.A. and M.A. degree in economics and a B.A.
degree in environmental analysis and policy. The views expressed in this article are those of the
authors only.
energy framework that can benefit both the Philippines and other countries that
face continued foreign energy dependency.
Energy independence is an alluring goal, offering hope of simultaneously
improving economic growth, environmental impact, and energy security. Un-
fortunately, for countries that are neither endowed with large fossil fuel resources
nor inexpensive renewable sources, energy independence creates a huge burden of
continuous investment in new power sources that can result in sharply increased
consumer energy prices while offering limited security benefits. For middle-
income countries such as the Philippines, which face skyrocketing energy demand
and limited resources, the pursuit of energy independence also frequently limits
broader development goals to reduce widespread poverty. Thus, a better energy
policy balances the economic and security benefits of domestically sourced pro-
duction with the significantly higher costs needed to achieve this goal and sec-
ondary impacts on the quality of life for the citizenry.
The Philippines has adopted one of the most popular strategies for increasing
domestic electricity production—a renewable energy goal. Unlike coal, gas, or oil,
the thinking goes, renewable fuels by nature can only be produced locally and
thus will have spillover benefits to both the economy and the environment. This
thinking is mistaken on three levels. First, if a renewable is more expensive than
a conventional source, then the benefits may be outweighed by higher costs paid in
government subsidies or higher consumer electricity rates. Second, if the Philip-
pines incurs increased debt from expensive renewables projects, it will be
replacing energy dependence with financial dependence. Finally, generation
sources whose fuel is domestic still rely on foreign components and technology.
Thus, 100-percent energy self-sufficiency is neither possible nor desirable.
Instead, energy dependent countries should develop a comprehensive energy
policy that supports energy interdependence; an energy policy that improves se-
curity, economic growth, innovation, poverty reduction, the environment, and
other national goals, while openly acknowledging that trade-offs exist among
these goals. This paper details initiatives that will bring the Philippines closer to
true energy stability and national prosperity in the long run. The first initiative
highlights a strategy to reduce dependence on oil from one region by diversifying
into Russian imports, a policy that will reduce effects from possible supply shocks
and deepen the relationship with a promising trade partner. The second initiative
emphasizes key areas of investment in fuel efficiency in the transportation sector,
which results in lower oil imports, consumer energy spending, urban traffic, and
pollution. The third initiative would limit spending on expensive domestic energy
projects that lack the ability to scale or positive externalities, including regional
gas pipelines and some first generation renewables. The fourth initiative would
support local innovation in alternative vehicles, enhanced geothermal systems
(EGS), or distributed generation, which can create local innovation in areas where
the Philippines holds a competitive advantage. These four initiatives would not
PHILIPPINES ENERGY POLICY 131
result in a Philippines that is energy self-sufficient by 2020, but it would put the
country on a path towards greater growth, security, and stability for both the gov-
ernment and the broader public.
Roughly a third of the Philippines’ primary energy comes from oil, roughly
another third from natural gas and traditional biomass, and a third from coal,
geothermal, hydro, and other renewables.1 Energy end use is divided about evenly
among the industrial, transport, and building sectors. Today, some 57 percent of
primary energy is supplied from domestic resources, close to the national goal of
60 percent independence by 2010.
The Philippines economy consumes approximately 320,000 barrels of oil per
day. It meets less than 10 percent of this need from domestic output, which has
been stable at 25,000 barrels per day since 2006.2 The Philippines only began
significant production of its 139 million barrels of proven oil reserves after the
1998 deregulation of the Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC) monopoly
allowed foreign upstream partners to tap new offshore deepwater deposits in
Malampaya. In 2005 the Philippines reached a memorandum of understanding
with China and Vietnam to jointly pursue oil research into large potential deposits
in the South China Sea, where territorial disputes remain.3
Despite this progress, the Philippines still depends on imports for over 90
percent of its oil, mainly from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.4
The Philippines struggles to operate its two refineries profitably.5 Moreover, in
2010 one of its refineries was issued a complaint by the Philippines due to alleged
tax evasion.6
A similar import dependence exists for coal. Despite recent efforts to double
coal production over historical levels to 2.6 million short tons per year, the
Philippines faces booming electricity demand and must import over 75 percent of
its coal.7
The one fossil fuel not currently imported is natural gas. Following de-
regulation, a joint venture with Shell and Chevron was formed in 2001 to begin
tapping the 3.9 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven reserves of offshore deposits. Gas
is currently being pumped via a sub-sea pipeline to fuel electricity plants totaling
2.7 gigawatts (GW). From 2002 to 2008, gas grew its share of Philippines elec-
tricity production from roughly one-fifth to one-third. Exploration at a second
offshore field at Sampaguita has the potential to double or triple reserves if a new
liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility is constructed. Roughly 85 percent of natural
gas is used for electricity production.8
Electricity: Between 1994 to 2006, electricity consumption and installed ca-
pacity both doubled, and this strong growth rate continues. In order to meet this
132 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
need, in 2001 the government broke up the electricity monopoly, Napocor, into
separate transmission, generation, and distribution entities, and regulated the
creation of independent power providers. Today, the Philippines provides roughly
62 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year from five major sources: natural
gas (33 percent), coal (27 percent), geothermal (17 percent), hydro (16 percent),
and oil/diesel (7 percent). The Philippines is best known internationally as the
second largest producer of geothermal energy in the world, behind only the United
States, with installed capacity close to 2.0 GW in 2008.9
One notable electricity source missing from the mix is nuclear power. In the
1970s, the Marcos regime responded to an energy crisis by building the Phil-
ippines’ only nuclear plant, a light-water reactor in Bataan some 100 kilometers
west of Manila.10 The plant, hampered by corruption, cost overruns, and poor
planning, was nearly completed but never fueled. In 1986, international in-
spectors deemed the plant unsafe due to earthquake and volcano risk, and the
Philippines government responded by adding a constitutional ban on all nuclear
power.
Figure 1
a
2009 ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE
(in percent)
a
The actual sources in gigawatt-hours (GWh) were: Oil-Thermal, 909 GWh (of which 73 GWh
was from domestic sources); Diesel, 3,771 GWh (301 GWh domestic); Gas Turbines/Combined
Cycle, 700 GWh (all domestic); Hydro, 9,788 GWh (all domestic); Geothermal, 10,234 GWh (all
domestic); Natural Gas, 19,887 GWh (all domestic).
PHILIPPINES ENERGY POLICY 133
The pursuit of energy independence does not address the true policy challenge
of meeting long-term, skyrocketing demand in a secure, economic, and environ-
mentally friendly manner. First, simply because the generation fuel is domestic
does not make the generation plant itself a completely domestic source. Com-
ponents and materials for renewables will have to be obtained from other countries
in addition to technical expertise. In addition, if the Philippines borrows large
amounts of money to pay for expensive domestic generation, then it actually will
find itself more dependent, not less.
Second, the emphasis on energy independence fails to confront oil import
security concerns. Less than 10 percent of 2009 electricity generation was de-
rived from oil. Despite the energy independence rhetoric, the 2009-2030 Energy
Plan aims to meet 20 percent of the 2030 diesel demand and 20 percent of 2030
gasoline demand from renewable sources. Specifically, even if the Philippines
attains its ambitious biofuel goals, over 60 percent of gasoline and diesel demand
will be met from conventional sources. Barring a highly unexpected domestic oil
discovery, the Philippines will continue to receive over four-fifths of its oil from
Middle East imports. Current policy does not address the risk of disruptions to
energy imports that could occur from transportation disturbances in key shipping
choke points.
PHILIPPINES ENERGY POLICY 135
The Philippines has made great progress in the development of its energy
sector. However, the government clings to an unrealistic goal of energy in-
dependence. A better policy would take a more comprehensive view, integrating
energy, foreign policy, and economic imperatives.
The Philippines energy policy rightly seeks to reform the power sector, build
out indigenous oil, gas, coal, and renewables production, and promote energy
efficiency. We outline below a 2010 to 2030 strategy based on a set of broader,
more integrated goals that achieve the true main overarching goals of energy
policy: (1) alleviating poverty and (2) meeting energy demand in a secure, low
cost, and sustainable manner.
are increased. With such an analysis it is likely that natural gas would be de-
termined to be a good bridge fuel for several areas.
The Philippines has already signed the Renewable Energy Act into law. Ret-
roactively changing energy policies, even if they result in substantially increased
electricity prices, would be detrimental for investment. However, the Philippines
should focus these renewable incentives in areas where renewable energy would
have been the least expensive in any case, which likely would be rural, un-electrified
barangays.
In the near term, the Philippines also should pursue mutually beneficial link-
ages with countries with high transportation and renewable energy expertise but
low energy demand growth, e.g., Japan; such countries may be more eager to
provide external non-loan funding and better financing terms in order to access
a market with greater energy demand than their own.
Conclusion
The goal of energy independence is very appealing, a seemingly clear goal that
has multiple positive spillover effects. However, the reality is that for a developing
country with limited conventional resources the goal of energy independence is
not as simple as it seems.
With this in mind, ‘‘interdependence’’ should be the new energy-sector focus.
The government can shift its short-term attention away from expensive renewables
and domestic oil. Instead, the Philippines can use its energy policy to diversify its
imports through a partnership with Russia, invest in the next generation of renewable
technology companies, and build a future transport infrastructure that improves the
quality of life.
NOTES
1
Philippines Department of Energy, Website, available at www.doe.gov.ph/, accessed 2010.
2
‘‘Country Energy Profile-Philippines,’’ U.S. Energy Information Adminsitration’s Country
Energy and Data Anaylsis, (Washington, D.C.:U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration, June 2010), accessed August 2010 and available at http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/
country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RP.
3
Shicun Wu and Keyuan Zou, eds., Maritime Security in the South China Sea: Cooperation and
Implications (Farmham, United Kingdom: Ashgate Publishing, 2009).
4
Philippines Department of Energy, Website, op. cit.
5
Myrna M. Velasco, ‘‘New Oil Refinery Investment Policy Sought,’’ mb.com.ph-Manila Bul-
letin Publishing Corporation (online version of the Manilla Bulletin), June 29, 2010, available at
www.mb.com.ph/node/264361.
6
Francisco Alcuaz, ‘‘Shell Philippine Unit Has $567 Million Smuggling Complaint From
Government,’’ Bloomberg, October 13, 2010, available at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-
10-14/philippine-bureau-of-customs-files-smuggling-complaint-against-shell-unit.html.
7
‘‘Country Energy Profile-Philippines,’’ op. cit.
8
Philippines Department of Energy, Website, op. cit.
140 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
9
Ibid.
10
‘‘IAEA Advises Philippines on Next Steps for ‘Mothballed’ NPP,’’ International Atomic
Energy Agency, July 2008, available at www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2008/bataannpp.html,
accessed August 2010.
11
Philippine Energy Plan Framework-2005 Update, (Taguig City, Phillipines: Philippines De-
partment of Energy, 2005), available at http://www.doe.gov.ph/pep/PEP_2005_2014.pdf.
12
Philippines Department of Energy, Website, op. cit.
13
The World Bank, Clean Technology Fund Guidelines for Investment Plans (Washington,
D.C.: The World Bank, 2009).
14
Philippines Renewable Energy Act of 2008.
15
The World Bank, World Bank Development Indicators, (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank,
2009), available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.
16
Francisco Alcuaz, ‘‘Russia Plans Asian Energy Invasion,’’ Gulfnews, April 25, 2007, available
at http://gulfnews.com/business/oil-gas/russia-plans-asian-energy-invasion-1.173854.
17
Philippines National Economic Development Authority, Medium-Term Philippine Develop-
ment Plan 2004-2010 (Pasig City, the Philippines: The Philippines National Economic Develop-
ment Authority, 2003), chapter 10, ‘‘Energy Independence.’’
18
The World Bank, Clean Technology Fund Investment Plan (Washington, D.C.: The World
Bank, 2009).