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GEOTRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES THAT AFFECT

THE FUTURE OF CONFLICT


Presented By:
John B. Alexander, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow: Joint Special Operations University

Association of Former
Intelligence Officers
National Convention
Las Vegas, NV
16 October 2009

IT’S BEYOND TERRORISM


THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED
AT THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL - DEFINITION

THERE ARE WARS ON:


POVERTY DRUGS

CANCER

WE HAVE LOST THE MEANING OF WAR


AMERICA IS NOT AT WAR!!!

WWII GWOT
40% of GDP 4% of GDP

WHILE OUR SOLDIERS ARE DYING


AMERICA IS AT THE MALL!!
HIS FUNERAL “INCONVENIENCED” A DRIVER
& SHE COMPLAINED INDIGNANTLY TO THE SHERIFF

“I would like to say “Your very right to


that I am sorry for complain was the
the inconvenience we reason Sgt. Woods
caused you during fought for his country
the funeral and ultimately gave
procession of his life; thus making
Sergeant 1st Class the ultimate sacrifice
William B. Woods, for you and your
but I cannot do so.” family.”

Sheriff Glenn Boyer


Jefferson, CO MO

SFC BRIAN WOODS


KIA, AFGHANISTAN, AUGUST 2009
THE “WINNING” PARADOX

THEN QUANTITATIVE REALITY


VS
ABSTRACT PERCEPTION
NOW

WINNING SOMETIMES MEANS STANDING UP TO A


SUPERIOR FORCE
TRANSNATIONAL INSTABILITY FACTORS

Ideology

Energy Organized
Crime

Environment
Poverty

Water Food

Many causes of instability are beyond


the scope of any single nation
TWO MODELS OF WAR
IDEOLOGICAL
VERSUS
NATION-STATE
No Foreign
Fighters

OURS MAY BE
ANACHRONISTIC
HUMAN
TRAFFICKING ORGANIZED CRIME
DRUGS

CORRUPTION TERRORISM

Money Laundering
3-5 % Global GDP

GANGS DESTABLIZE
GOVERNMENTS
WEAPONS
THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING VALUES

GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR WAR ON DRUGS

SPENT $0.7T
(Maybe $2.5T)
ROI = 0
WE ARE UNWILLING TO DO WHAT IS NEEDED TO WIN
THE WAR ON DRUGS FIASCO

More than 10 Tons


Confiscated
THIS WEEK!!

The cost of doing business

Poppies Vs Wheat $50: $1

STREET PRICE REMAINS CONSTANT


EPIDEMIC POVERTY

ENJOY
TECHNOLOGY

One billion live on


Less than $1/day
Africa: 11% of people
1% medical $$

Nearly two billion people


Without safe water

A PARADOX:
AS THE WORLD’S WEALTH INCREASES
SO DOES POVERTY!!!
FOOD SHORTAGES

UN HEADLINES:
THE GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS:
THE PERFECT STORM
WATER SHORTAGES

INDIA ARAL SEA


MONGOLIA

THE BILL PAYER

JORDAN MALI

THE AMAZON
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

QOMOLANGMA
ANTARCTICA
ARCTIC ISSUES: MINERALS & NW PASSAGE

PREDICTION: ICE FREE BY 2020


ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

MAJOR EARTHQUAKES

HIGH PROBABILITY OF MASS MIGRATIONS


ENERGY COMPETITION
NUCLEAR
PETROCHEMICALS

BIOFUELS

SOLAR
WIND
TRANSNATIONAL INSTABILITY FACTORS

Ideology

Energy Organized
Crime

THESE ARE ALL


INTERRELATED
Environment
Poverty

Food
Water
Shortages
GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020


“The Era of Great Realignment”
GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020


“The Era of Great Realignment”
NAMES AND BORDERS HAVE OFTEN CHANGED
GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020


“The Era of Great Realignment”
PLUTONOMY? U.S. WEALTH DISPARITY:
WORST SINCE 1920’s
CEO PAY

Even those who fail get rewarded

Ellison (Oracle) $192M


Poses (Trane) $127M

Blankfein (Goldman Sachs) $43M


(Plus $11B to execs in bonuses)
The top one percent of Americans
have more wealth than the bottom 95 percent!
THIS IS UNSUSTAINABLE!
VIABILITY OF AMERICAN CAPITALISM?

SITUATION TODAY IMPACTS TOMORROW’S OPTIONS


DEFICIT OR DEBT:THE REAL PROBLEM?

“First we must balance the federal budget. …. I will submit a budget


that eliminates the federal deficit within the next five years.”
President Bush, State of the Union, 23 Jan 2007

And there’s an
Unfunded
liability of
$59 T

NATIONAL DEBT ON 16 Oct 09: $11,910,513,883,030.20


A STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY
WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE?

BILLIONAIRES: 2008 - 1125 - 2009 - 793

Gates #1 $40B
Bhumibol - $36B
(down fm $58B)
TRILLIONS JUST EVAPORATED

& POOR HAVE PAID THE PRICE!


WHAT DO THESE GUYS HAVE IN COMMON?

IN 2008 WHAT COUNTRY HAD THE MOST IN TOP 10 BILLIONAIRES?


(IT WAS NOT THE U.S.)
WHAT COUNTRY HAD 7 IN THE TOP 25?

DISPARITY BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IS INCREASING –


RAPIDLY!
SIGNS OF CHANGE
HEADQUARTERS OF TOP 50 COMPANIES

FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES:


CHINA - 37 (9 NEW IN 2009)
U.S. - 140 (LOWEST EVER)
GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020


“The Era of Great Realignment”
WORDS TO WORRY ABOUT:
“WE’RE FROM AMERICA AND WE’RE HERE TO HELP YOU”
ECONOMICS AND FOREIGN POLICY
THE CHINA FACTOR

BEIJING
SHANGHAI
HONG KONG

A SLEEPING GIANT HAS AWAKENED


THE TAIWAN PROBLEM
GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020


“The Era of Great Realignment”
USE OF PRIVATE CONTRACTORS HAS CHANGED
RISE OF THE MODERN MERCENARY – 1990’s

Most with 20 years


South African Company
Experience in counter-
Guerilla operations

EO Was
80% Black!

SUCCESS IN ANGOLA AND SIERRA LEONE -


STABILIZED THE SITUATION
THE UN OBJECTS AND INTERVENES

EXECUTIVE OUTCOMES UN PEACEKEEPERS


• <300 Men • 12,000 Men
• $20M Per Year • $1B Per Year
• Established Security • Allowed new civil war
WIDE VARIETY OF CONTRACT POSITIONS

SECURITY
CONVOYS

POLICE ADVISORS

RATIO MILITARY TO CONTRACTOR IN IRAQ 1:1


IN AFGHANISTAN IT IS >1:1 (57% of Force)
CONTRACTOR CASUALTIES - IRAQ

Fatalities > 1300


Injuries >29,000
(CRS May 2009)

WHO CARES? THEY DON’T REALLY COUNT


– OR DO THEY?
IN U.S. THE RATIO OF PRIVATE SECURITY
TO SWORE POLICE IS 5:1

EVEN MICKEY MOUSE HAS A


PRIVATE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE
LEAPS IN THREATS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT

North Hollywood Bank Full body armor


28 February 1997 Out-gunned LAPD

Sinaloa Gang in Phoenix


Phoenix Assassination
SWAT uniforms, SUVs,
22 June 2008
fully automatic weapons

Future - Mumbai-like incident in U.S. -


Multiple targets, heavily armed, hi-tech,
Well trained, come to fight & die

A FUTURE ROLE FOR USSOCOM?


GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020


“The Era of Great Realignment”
NON-STATE THREATS

AQIM Abu Sayyaf


SE Asia
North Africa
Marcola
PCC - Brazil
NEW TERRORISM: IT’S NOT ABOUT NEGOTIATION

THEY COME TO DIE!!

AND TAKE MANY OTHERS WITH THEM


A ROLE FOR NONLETHAL WEAPONS
STRATEGIC INCAPACITATION

EMP WEAPONS WITH


CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL OPTIONS
INCAPACITATING AGENTS

WHAT YOU DID READ:


- NERVE GAS KILLED RUSSIAN HOSTAGES (UPI)

- DEADLY END TO MOSCOW SIEGE SHOWS


DANGERS OF INCAPACITATING CHEMICALS (AP)

- CONCERN ARISES OVER TYPE OF GAS USED


BY MOSCOW (WASH POST)

- USE OF GAS RISKS OTHERS FOLLOWING SUIT (SF CHRONICLE)

WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE READ:


HUNDREDS SAVED BY USE OF INCAPACITATING AGENT

WOULD YOU SET TODAY’S SPEED LIMITS BASED ON


AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLGY OF 1900???
NAILING A FOOT TO THE FLOOR
MOSCOW THEATER

A MATTER OF CHOICE
NOW IT’S YOUR KIDS IN THE SCHOOL:
WHAT WEAPONS DO YOU WANT POLICE TO USE??
COMPARED TO WHAT?

10mm Black Talon


PERCEPTION

THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERING WORLD VIEWS

AIN’T IT AWFUL???
THE WORLD AS SEEN BY PHILOSOPHICAL
GROUPS
THE WORLD AS IT IS
“There are two things that are infinite…..the universe and
human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the former.”
GLOBAL TROUBLE SPOTS
AFGHANISTAN – DESTROYER OF EMPIRES*

P – Punjab
A – Afghani
K – Kashmir
I – Land of
S – Sindh
T – Tukharistan
A – Balochistan
N

* From Milt Bearden ex-CIA COS Islamabad


LATIN AMERICAN
INSTABILITIES
JFK ATTACK

DRUG GANGS

MST “La Violencia”

SINDERO RETURNS TRI-BORDER AREA


TIES TO ME & AFRICA

ANTI-AMERICAN LEADERS
TERRORIST INFILTRATION PATH TO U.S.

MEXICO TO US
($10K)
MIDDLE EAST TO SPAIN
SPAIN TO PARAGUAY
PARAGUAY TO MEXICO
(LANGUAGE TRAINING)

SUPPORT BASE

WHY WE SHOULD CARE!!!


MEXICO: ARE THE WHEELS COMING OFF?

O Plata O Plomo?

THIS IS THE RESULT OF AMERICAN POLICIES


AFRICAN CONFLICTS
AQIM

DARFUR
NARCO-STATES 400K Dead
TUAREGS PIRACY

MEND SOMALIA
350K Dead

N-S SUDAN CIVIL WAR


1.5 M Dead last time

Current
CONGO Future
6 M Dead Unstable
JERUSALEM – THE INSOLUBLE ISSUE

DOME OF THE ROCK


GOLAN HEIGHTS

TEMPLE OF SOLOMON
WESTERN WALL
CORE BELIEFS AND VALUES INCOMPATIBLE

• All people want the same things (life, liberty, happiness)


• Life, especially human life, has extraordinary value
• Females and males should have equal rights
• Individuals are solely responsible for their actions
• Value placed on shame and honor
• Opposing belief systems can be accommodated
• Democracy should be available to all
• Education is good and key to solving problems
• Progress will insure success
DETERMINING SUCCESS VERSUS PROGRESS

• PERSPECTIVE IS CRITICAL
• ESTABLISHING APPROPRIATE METRICS
• TEMPORAL ARTIFACTS
• ADEQUACY OF PROGNOSIS

Beware of the revenge of the bean counters


THE EDUCATION CONUNDRUM

TIMBUKTU
NEPAL

RURAL AMERICA
AMAZON

ZIMBABWE
EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY

THERE ARE A LOT OF SMART PEOPLE IN THE WORLD

WITH EXCELLENT UNIVERSITIES

AND SOCIETIES THAT HIGHLY VALUE EDUCATION

THE U.S. CAN NO LONGER COUNT ON TECHNICAL SUPERIORITY


FUTURE CONCERNS

WHAT IF YOU COULD BE:

- OUT GUNNED

- OUT SENSED

- OUT MANEUVERED

NOT SINCE WORLD WAR II:


BUT WE WILL LIKELY LOSE TECHNICAL DOMINANCE
FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• HARDER TO IDENTIFY COMBATANTS

• INCREASED RESTRICTIONS ON USE OF FORCE

• SHIFTING SOCIAL STRUCTURES


QANA
• INCREASED OUTSOURCING OF WAR

• US PUBLIC SUPPORT DIRECTLY COORELATED TO:

• TIME & SPACE FROM ATTACK

• VIOLENCE OF ATTACK

• PERCEPTION OF PERSONAL THREAT

• PARADOXES AND VALUE CONFLICTS ABOUND


SUPPORTING THEM IS WHAT IT’S ABOUT
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE TO OUR COUNTRY

Email: Nonlethal2@aol.com