CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND IMPLICATIONS

IN HEALTH, ENERGY AND AGRICULTURE (*)

Halmar Halide (+)

JURUSAN FISIKA FMIPA UNHAS

(*) Presentasi pada acara: Sosialisasi Masalah Bencana dan Perubahan

Iklim/Cuaca kepada KBI wilayah Regional SULAMPUA dan BALNUSTRA,
Ruang Serba Guna Kantor Bank Indonesia, Ternate, Tgl 15 April 2011

(+) Guru Besar dan Kepala Lab. Hidro-Meteorologi

 BAHASAN
Perubahan Iklim
• Isu Global
• Aspek SAINS
• Implikasi
Kesehatan: Manajemen DBD
Energi: Strategi pembelian gas alam
Pertanian: Jadwal tanam dan panen
optimal
• Climate Outlook: ENSO and Extreme events
Isu Global: Penentu Kebijakan Energi dan
Iklim 2008 USA
Ahli Hukum Perekayasa Kimia

Ekolog Laut

FISIKAWAN
Carol Browner akan meninggalkan West Wing!
http://www.celsias.com/article/carol-browner-obamas-energy-and-climate-czar-leave/

+es: “The New Foundation for a Clean Energy Economy”:

“Expanding Clean Energy to Historic Levels … Making Homes
More Energy Efficient … Investing in Advanced Transportation
Systems … Modernizing Our Electricity infrastructure … Cleaning
up Coal … Expanding Appliance Efficiency Standards … Leading
in Sustainability... “International Leadership … Monitoring
Emissions … Climate Change Science and Education … Climate
Change Adaptation.”
”

-e: “the catastrophic failure of the

administration to pass a climate bill”
Isu Global: Penentu kemenangan
PEMILU 2007 DI AUSTRALIA

LOOSER WINNER
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Rudd

Beginning with Rudd's election to the Labor

leadership, the party enjoyed a long period
of high popularity in the opinion polls.
However, a significant fall in Rudd's personal
electoral standing was blamed on a proposed
Resource Super Profits Tax and the
deferral of the Senate-rejected
Carbon Pollution Reduction
Scheme.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Gillard
SCIENTIST vs POLITICIAN
Model sederhana Efek Rumah Kaca

So = tetapan matahari, energi yang tiba di bumi

Alpha = Albedo = rasio energi matahari yang dipantulkan terhadap
energi matahari yang tiba
Sigma = tetapan Stefan-Boltzmann
Epsilon (=0, atmosfir transparan = 1, atmosfir opak/tak tembus)
 KALKULATOR http://www.geo.umass.edu/courses/climat/radbal.html
SUHU MUKA
BUMI

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/Earth_temp.html

OLR= outgoing longwave radiation

CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING:
PENYEBABNYA ...WHO IS TO BLAME???

HUMAN ATAU NATURE?

Model rekonstruksi kontributor perubahan
iklim [Meehl dkk.,2004, J. Climate]
Skenario & Proyeksi Konsentrasi CO2
[Meehl dkk., 2005, Science ]
Skenario & Proyeksi Suhu Udara permukaan
(Meehl dkk., 2005 Science)
 Skenario & Proyeksi Kenaikan
Muka-Laut [Meehl dkk., 2005, Science]
Proyeksi suhu global [Meehl dkk., 2005, Science]

Beda suhu permukaan (oC) rata-rata antara tahun 2080-2099 dan tahun 1980-1999
 APA REALITASNYA?

PREDIKSI MODEL VS
OBSERVASI
Proyeksi IPCC vs Observasi CO2
[Monthly CO2 Report, SPPI June 2010]
Alarmists: Ada korelasi antara Emisi CO2
dan Suhu global Keeling & Whorf, 2005;
Brohan dkk., 2006)
Skeptics: Emisi CO2 dari penggunaan
BBM & suhu global saling independen
Prediksi (IPCC AR4, 2007) Realitas (CCSP, 2006)

PCM= Parallel Climate Model (Los Alamos, Naval Postgrad, US Army, NCAR)
SUHU GLOBAL; WWW.SPPI.ORG
SUHU TROFOSFIR (via Satelit):
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/FOS
%20Essay/Climate_Change_Science.html
Bagaimana menjelaskan ketaksesuaian
antara prediksi dan observasi?
 PENJELASAN 1:
Ada hubungan nonlinearitas antara CO2 dan
Pemanasan (sumber: Dr Martin Hetzberg)
 PENJELASAN 2:
Ada korelasi Siklus matahari & suhu global
[Lassen & Friis-Christensen, J. Atmos. Terrestrial Physics, 1995]
More active Sun -> more Sunspots

-> more solar wind ->less cosmic ray ->

less aerosols -> less low clouds ->

more sun light to the surface -> global

warming. [Svensmark & Friis-Christensen,
2007]
 DAMPAK
PERUBAHAN IKLIM
 PERUBAHAN TUTUPAN ES

WWW.PEWCLIMATE.ORG

MONCKTON, MONTHLY CO2 REPORT, FEB 2010, WWW.SPPI.ORG

KENAIKAN MUKA-LAUT
 AKTIVITAS BADAI
WWW.PEWCLIMATE.ORG

WWW.SPPI.ORG
HANG ON...

BREAKING
NEWS!!!
http://www.spaceandscience.net/id67.html
GLOBAL WARMING...
GLOBAL COOLING...

CLIMATE ALWAYS CHANGES

ANTISIPASI KITA DARI KEJADIAN

MASA LALU?
Dampak perubahan iklim pada peradaban dan ekosistem
(Burrough, “Does the weather really matter?”, 1997)
IMPLIKASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM:
PERINGATAN DINI EPIDEMI DBD
OBSERVASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM DAN KASUS DBD
DI MAKASSAR

IOD
ENSO
 Permodelan Epidemi DBD: Metode analisis

Input (iklim/meteorologis + kasus DBD lalu)

Output (kasus DBD mendatang)

Pemodelan statistika: Stepwise Regression and Discriminant

Model prediktif epidemi DBD

Skill model prediktif [Halide & Ridd, 2008;
Halide, 2009]
 Economic value model prediktif
[Halide 2009a,b]
EXPENSES (E), LOSS (L) and Cost (C)

VALUE INDEX
SISTEM PERINGATAN DINI DBD Halide et al. (2010, 2011)
IMPLIKASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM:
STRATEGI PEMBELIAN GAS
ALAM
STRATEGI Changnon dkk. (2000)

Hubungan antara fasa

ENSO dengan musim
dingin mendatang
 Keuntungan ekonomis

Proses dan hasil pengambilan keputusan pembelian gas. (a) decision-tree dari masing-
masing sumber informasi (b) keputusan sintesa (c) hasil keputusan pembelian gas
IMPLIKASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM:
MANAJEMEN KOMODITAS
JADWAL MUSIM TANAM [Jones dkk., 2000]

Curah hujan rata-rata periode 1931-1966 sesuai 3 fasa

ENSO dan penjadwalan tanaman (masa tanam dan panen)
berbagai jenis komoditas di Pergamino, Argentina.
 MANAJEMEN TANAM [Jones dkk., 2000]

Panen jagung yang diharapkan dari pengelolaan optimal

sesuai jenis prediksi fase ENSO dan curah hujan.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK: ENSO AND
EXTREME EVENTS
continuing but weakening La Nina conditions during the March-May 2011
season currently in progress
 RELASI ENSO DAN HUJAN EKSTRIM

El Niño La Niña

El Niño La Niña
Prediksi: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Daud/David (PC) vs Jalut/Goliath (SC)

PC Mah. Fisika Unhas 2010

LDEO5 = Super Computer (Chen dkk., 2004)

IndOzy = Personal Computer (Halide and Ridd, 2008)
 TUGAS AKHIR PREDIKTIF MODELING
M. Rahmah, 2002. Modeling sugarcane yields using El Niño Southern Oscillation index.
Rafiqah, 2002. Modeling malaria endemicity using ENSO
H. Kondorura, 2002. Modeling cotton production using ENSO index.
A. Muliadi, 2003. Using ENSO index for predicting white prawn catches.
Maryam, 2003. Modeling ENSO effects on fluctuating diarrhea cases
M. Tahir, 2003. Predicting Electricity Production using ARMA Model.
Wahyuni, 2003. Using El Niño Southern Oscillation index on modeling Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever endemic.
I. Tudin, 2004. Determining planting time for cotton using rainfall data.
Suwarjono, 2004. Analysing Rupiah-US dollar-Yen arbitrage within econophysics framework.
N. Tulak, 2004. Climate-based Predictive model for corn plantations.
Fahmi, 2004. Climate-based modeling for drinking water production and consumption.
Nirmalasari, 2004. Evaluating daily weather prediction skill.
S. Usman, 2004. Evaluating drought prediction skill for rice fields in the island of Java, Indonesia.
Haniah, 2004. Modeling of corn yield failures using global climate indices.
H. Kaddi, 2004. Modeling of climate effects on Cakalang catch at Kab. Majene.
D. Hartini, 2004. Modeling of the Monsoon-Dipole-ENSO interaction affecting rice production.
MA Abdi, 2004. Applying Geographical Information System in determining spatio-temporal pattern of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever.
PIS Samad, 2004. An early-warning system of forest fire based on local environmental condition.
Irawati, 2004. Climate-based predictive modeling for Scad catches.
R. Said, 2005. Climate-based modeling for electricity production at Bakaru Hydropower plant.
I. Ma’mur, 2005. Climate-based model for predicting Haemonchus sp attacks on goats at Maros regency.
Firdaus. 2009. Predicting monthly rainfall at Hasanuddin Airport using a multivariate model.
RP Tulak, 2009. Thunder-Storm predictions using a discriminant analysis model.
N. Anwar, 2009. Comparing coronary diagnostics via ROC analysis.
St. Hartina A, 2009. Determining the volume of Vesica Urinaria Organs using USG machine.
Raufika EF, 2009. Trend analysis and modelling of regional effects on surface temperature at Hasanuddin airport.
Hasnia, 2009. Modeling of pest and disease attacks on Cocoa plants based on rainfall and ENSO data.
Mukhlis, 2009. Analysis of safelight power and exposure time on fogging levels.
SD Mangalik, 2010. Modeling the effect of local and global climate on White Prawn Catch in Makassar.
Nurhaeda, 2010. Spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall using a Discriminant Analysis.
AR Wita, 2010. Climate based predictive modeling for Corn productivity in Maros.
M Alotasik, 2010. Modeling Markisa productivity in Tana Toraja based on local climate
Nurlinah, 2010. Modeling the effect of Local Climate on Cacao productivity in Luwu Utara.
Sri Hartati R, 2010. Rainfalls affecting Coffee productivity at Gowa regency
Panji PJ, 2010. Comparing climate characteristics using Mohr and Schmidt-Fergusson.
Rais, 2010. Designing an Early Warning System for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Makassar City.
Syahril, 2010. Evaluating Rainfall Prediction of the South Sulawesi Province during 2008-2009.
Nurhakiki, 2010. Evaluating Predictive modeling of ENSO 2005-2010.
Puji Pratiwi, 2011. Evaluating Urban Heat Island for City and Rural Areas.
Inang PA, 2011. Projecting Needs of Drinking Water based on Weather and Demography.
Wardah, 2011. A simple model for determining Hilal (start of an Islamic Month).
RA Ramadhan, 2011. Weather factors affecting aircrafts landing at Hasanuddin airport