Do Do

DAIWA
DAIWA INSTITUTE OF RESEARCH LTD.
July 2004 (No. of pages: 52)
Global Telecom Monthly
This month
• Global – Another turgid month, as the market’s sense of impending
disappointment grew. Our exposure to Yahoo! and Yahoo! Japan did us no
favors this month, though the emerging markets names with exposure to SE Asia,
India, and Africa did us proud. In another off-road theme piece we look at how
changes in information flows and sources may diminish the added value element
of traditional telecom research. We think the brokers need to adapt their tools and
habits to a more immediate, interactive style, or risk being marginalized.
• Europe – BT and Yahoo! announce Communicator launch/EC reportedly to

press France Telecom for EUR1.1bn tax payment/Virgin Mobile files for
IPO/BIICL regulatory study reveals Germany as the slowest to resolve
regulatory disputes/Tiscali sued by Belgian artists’ rights group as an "enabler"
of P2P piracy/Studies show European countries hold seven of the top ten spots
in illegal file sharing rankings.
• US – Sprint cuts jobs, reiterates guidance/Cablevision launches aggressively

priced Triple Play/Verizon asks FCC for recognition as an information service
provider, rather than common carrier/SBC announces $4-6bn investment
program in all-IP networks and FTTH/Sprint to spe nd $1bn on EV-DO/AT&T
pulls back on local service offering and lowers guidance/Cingular reportedly
accepting RFPs for UMTS/Nextel- public safety agency interference issue
resolved.
• Asia – DoCoMo regains top share of net adds for first time in nine
months/KDDI announces handset and tariff changes/China Netcom reportedly
to list by September/China government reportedly considering plan for carrier
consolidation as resolution for 3G licensing problem/Unicom discloses terms of
proposed rights issue/MIC cuts mobile interconnection rates retroactive to
January 1/Singapore upholds leased line price cuts for Singtel/TelstraClear
reportedly still planning 3G launch/Telstra and Hutch reportedly in talks on 3G
network sharing.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS,

ARE PROVIDED ON THE LAST TWO PAGES OF THIS REPORT.
Global Equity Research

Contents
Regional/subsector investment stance summary
P. 3
Global perspective
This month’s focus is on the changing nature of information flow in the sector, and the issues traditional
telecoms analysis will face in adapting itself. We also include an analysis of European telecom analysts’
collective track record in calling the direction of the sector, and provide clients with a partial list of useful
and helpful RSS-based information sources. P. 4
News
A round-up of global telecoms events over the past month P. 13
Statistics and valuations

Cellular Subs, Cellular Penetration, Cellular ARPU, Broadband Internet Subs,
Valuation – Integrated, Valuation – Cellular, Share Price Performance,
Corporate Earnings, Earnings Revisions, Rating Revision P. 19
Monthly stats
P. 37
Forthcoming events
P. 45
Appendix
Equity relationships among global telcos P. 47
CONTENTS
2 Global Telecom Monthly
Regional/subsector investment stance summary
Wtd. stock
Region/segment Stance recommendations* Top picks Comments/action
Europe Integrated WEAK NEUTRAL 3.22 Telenor Q2 results may offer further grounds for
concern. We favor operators with minimal
gearing to home markets and high exposure
to mobile/emerging markets.
Europe Wireless NEUTRAL 2.80 TIM We favor companies with a strong domestic
position, minimal domestic competitive
concerns, and good exposure to emerging
markets.
US Integrated WEAK OVERWEIGHT 2.72 Verizon Proactive stance towards product bundling
and some recent regulatory victories make
us marginally more positive.
US Wireless OVERWEIGHT 1.00 Nextel Consolidation is driving the sector at the

moment, but we favor Nextel's unique
market positioning.
AsiaPac Integrated OVERWEIGHT 2.21 KT Corp, NTT, Going for yield and restructuring potential.
Telstra
AsiaPac Wireless OVERWEIGHT 1.69 China Mobile, KDDI, The combination of balance sheet strength,
NTT DoCoMo secular growth and strong data results sets
the sector apart from counterparts
elsewhere.
Source: Daiwa estimates
*Based on DIR 1 - 5 rating system
I NVESTMENT S TANCE
July 2004 3
15 July 2004 (No. of pages: 9)
Global perspective
Adaptive analyst, or dodo bird?
James Enck
(44) 20 7597 8455
james.enck@dir.co.uk
• A bad month overall, and the few bright spots in our portfolio are mostly limited
to emerging markets, notably excluding China, where our gamble on the internet
names has delivered dismal results this month. Yahoo! and Nokia Q2 numbers
indicate a more nervous market with a tendency to punish – worrying signs ahead
of the telco reporting season.
• This month’s focus is on the changing nature of information flow in the sector,
and the issues traditional telecoms analysis will face in adapting itself. We also
include an analysis of European telecom analysts’ collective track record in calling
the direction of the sector, and provide clients with a partial list of useful and
helpful RSS-based information sources.
Note: Price and performance data relates to 07:50 am London time on 15 July, 2004.
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
Summertime blues
Sell in May and go away Ahead of the Q2 reporting season, the market is displaying mounting nerves, and as we
- maybe there’s saw with the reaction to Yahoo!’s numbers (and Nokia’s just out this morning), a
something to it growing tendency to react badly to anything short of blowout performance. Worst
performance this month came from Japan and Korea, with another poor showing from
Europe. Our portfolio is now underperforming the MSCI World Telecoms year-to-date,
and our gearing to Yahoo! and Yahoo! Japan have been key contributors. Our angles
on disruptive ISPs (Tiscali, Freenet.de, Yahoo! Japan), VoIP (with the exception of
deltathree), and China internet (Webzen, Sohu, Sina) have all done poorly. Our
conviction in Southeast Asian, Indian and African names continues to be validated by
the top performers in the portfolio, and these continue to provide some of the scant
bright spots in the sector globally. No changes to the portfolio this month as we ride
out the Q2 reporting season.
Key regional sector indices, relative to local/regional broad market
MSCI World Telecoms
S&P ASX 300 Telecoms
Hang Seng Commerce & Industry
KOSPI Communications
TOPIX Communications
STOXX Telecoms
S&P 500 Wireless
S&P 500 Integrated
(20)% (10)% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Hang Seng
S&P 500 S&P 500 TOPIX KOSPI S&P ASX 300 MSCI World
STOXX Telecoms Commerce &
Integrated Wireless Communications Communications Telecoms Telecoms
Industry
YTD (4.95) 31.03 (4.74) (16.54) (3.87) 1.23 (1.36) (3.46)
6M (6.88) 21.95 (8.56) (15.02) (5.44) 4.34 (4.02) (8.31)
3M (2.44) 6.50 (2.62) (9.70) 8.64 1.51 3.23 (2.81)
1M 0.14 2.35 (0.90) (4.16) (3.34) 0.79 4.01 (0.43)
5D 0.09 (1.40) (0.18) (3.15) 0.34 1.44 0.11 (0.45)
Portfolio best and worst, one month ($US)

Best 10 % Change Worst 10 % Change
deltathree 26.7 Tiscali (10.8)
Telkom (SA) 15.0 SK Telecom (11.4)
Total Access Communications 14.6 theglobe.com (12.2)
Telkom (Indonesia) 13.3 Yahoo! Japan (13.5)
XM Satellite Radio 12.4 8x8 (15.3)
Bharti Televentures 7.8 Sirius Satellite Radio (18.6)
MTN 7.5 Webzen (20.4)
Taiwan Cellular 6.2 Freenet.de (23.3)
Orascom 6.2 Sohu.com (27.5)
Telekom Malaysia 5.0 Sina.com (31.8)
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
July 2004 5
Why traditional telco analysis will go the way of the dodo
One turkey votes for In the April edition of our Global Telecom Monthly, I included a short piece on RSS
Christmas (really simple syndication) and how it might change the world in some very
straightforward ways. In that piece, and a subsequent edition of EuroTelcoblog, I
speculated that there might be implications for more than just the traditional media, and
that brokers’ research efforts might also benefit from RSS and the numerous other
advancements being made in real-time information distribution and collaboration
technology. My somewhat unorthodox “summer project” for this month is to delve a
bit more deeply into precisely what this could mean, and to make a case for why
traditional investment banking research is increasingly at risk of being outmoded, if it
isn’t already. My ultimate goals here are two-fold: 1) to provide clients with a list of
alternative information resources they may not be aware of, and; 2) to stir things up.
The background
Analyst – past, present Back in 2002 a friend on the buy-side sent me a copy of a remarkable Powerpoint
and future presentation from Robert Zielinski, then an Asian banks analyst with UBS Asset
Management, entitled “Death of an Analyst.” In this extraordinary piece of partially
tongue-in-cheek vitriol aimed at investment banking “business-as-usual”, Mr. Zielinski
makes a case for why sell-side analysis is a broken model, contributing nothing to the
investor’s decision-making process. Looking beyond the humor and bitterness evident
in his presentation, however, there is one slide which has remained clearly in my mind
since then, and it is reproduced below. In it Mr. Zielinski attempts to give a view of
analyst characteristics and duties – past, present and future.
Robert Zielinski’ s Evolution of Analysts

The past The present The future
Information gathers Industry experts Data provider
Printed E- mailed Live Online
Eager youngsters Tired veterans Salarymen
Broad coverage Limited coverage All companies
Serve client Serve bankers Independent
Use a salesman Direct contact Interactive
Pioneer Bureaucrat Mechanical
Source: Robert Zielinski, “ Death of an Analyst,” 2002
Analysts living in the What is striking is the list of attributes which make up The Future, and the contrast
past? with the normal way that analysts go about their jobs today. This normally consists of
following a relatively small number of companies within a narrowly defined
geographic and industry area, producing reports which are then emailed (and,
astonishingly, still often physically mailed) to clients, bombarding the same clients
with voicemails to alert them to the emailed report, and making marketing trips to
reinforce the message face-to-face. This is all well and good, as long as the investor
plays along. However, as one buy-side analyst told me not long ago:
“My inbox receives, on average, 15 emails every 30 minutes, and I tend to delete
approximately 90% of them as useless, dated, or, even worse, completely
superficial.”
Pity the fund manager Numerous other clients I have met have typically described themselves as being
“besieged” by broker research, which they find “depressingly undifferentiated.” One
group of fund managers only half-jokingly expressed a strong interest in some of the
call blocking and diverting features available in VoIP services as a way of freeing
themselves from broker voicemails. How could this be the case, given the devotion and
tireless efforts of thousands of analysts worldwide to maintaining a steady flow of
timely, value-added company and industry research?
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
Let’s go back in time to The answer may lie in the way information flow has changed over the past decade. Ten
see how primitive man years ago, the Daiwa research department in London had PCs loaded with Excel and
lived Word, but no internet connection and no email. All research produced by Daiwa was
printed and mailed, as well as FAXed, to clients. Company releases made to the
London Stock Exchange appeared on a proprietary information system called TOPIC,
and otherwise company information was sent to analysts by FAX or post. Reuters
Business Briefing and Reuters television services were only launched in 1994.
Bloomberg TV also launched in 1994, but the company had only sold something lik e
35,000 terminals worldwide, and we were still a year away from the launch of
Bloomberg.com. Neither Reuters nor Bloomberg systems were available in Daiwa’s
research office. Sitting here in 2004 surrounded by “pervasive communication,” it is
hard to imagine/remember a life of such relative isolation as that experienced by Daiwa
analysts in 1994, but their experience was probably pretty well the norm for the time.
Analysts no longer the The principal difference this technology gap made was that in 1994 analysts were a
heralds they once were privileged subset of a group (including financial journalists and some more specialist
institutional investors) with timely access to information which was exclusive to them,
at least for as long as it took them to disseminate it to a wider audience. Today, and for
some time now, companies have been using the web as a tool for information
distribution, opening themselves up to the world. The latest set of company results
(increasingly including a webcast analyst meeting) can be accessed simultaneously by
anyone, whether it be an experienced sector analyst on Wall Street, or an elementary
school student in Manila. Commercial transcription services such as Call Street
produce conference call transcripts in short order, and later issue more detailed reports
on the results and the call. At the same time the financial media have invaded every
available real-time distribution channel (TV, radio, internet), meaning that the
traditional role of the analyst to break and interpret company news is further diluted.
Additionally, over the past decade, fund managers have largely moved from a country-
based approach to a sector-specific focus. Today most of Daiwa’s Japanese clients, and
virtually all of the fund managers I am in contact with in European institutions, are
either sector specialists or work closely with specialist analysts. This was not the case
in 1994. In 2004 analysts may now have access to all the modern tools for information
retrieval and distribution, but so does everyone else, and investors’ knowledge level
may be as good or better. Arguably, analysts are using new tools to distribute the same
product as before, but to an audience which may be less in need of it than ever before.
Back to the future Returning to Robert Zielinski’s slide above, it is remarkable the extent to which parts
of this description of the future analyst are already applicable to many people outside
the broking world, namely the growing ranks of “bloggers” who are writing on
telecom/internet/media/technology-related themes, sometimes in great detail and to a
very high standard. The description of “data provider” is not correct in this case
(“industry expert” is the norm), and “mechanical” and “salarymen” probably aren’t
either (though some of the best bloggers have day jobs closely related to what they
write about), but the other four elements match up nicely – live online, all companies,
interactive, independent. Let us address each in turn:
• Live online – The various blogware packages available to create blogs are very
straightforward to use. If some significant news breaks, a blogger can publish
quickly, while the analyst waits for compliance, editorial, and production teams
before the .pdf note can be sent out. Web-based packages like Blogger are not as
feature-rich as many others available, but they have the advantage of allowing
updates from any internet enabled device capable of text entry.
• All companies – This may be a real killer for the telecom analysts. As we have
tried very hard to document over the past 20 months or so, the world is moving in
ways which make it difficult to even define what a telco is anymore. Retailers,
utilities, municipal governments, banks, and even the UK Royal Mail are moving
into offering voice, and the global internet giants (AOL, Yahoo!, Apple, Microsoft,
and even P2P network Morpheus) are offering quasi-telephony services. Even the
geographical definitions which have traditionally governed coverage allocation at
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
July 2004 7
the brokers are increasingly open to question, as SIP-based service providers issue
numbers not relating to the market where the customer is physically located
(see www.stanaphone.com for an interesting example), and global services like
Skype are on the attack. It is no longer enough for the analyst to sit in his silo and
write “France Telecom is trading at a 10% discount to DT – buy!” Bloggers
typically are not constrained by any coverage allocation issues, and thus can take a
wider view.
• Interactive – As described in our April piece, a user of an RSS newsreader will
receive a discreet notification that something has been added to a site bookmarked
in his list, allowing him to decide when to go in and “pull” the item, rather than
being confronted with another piece of broker spam “pushed” to his email inbox.
There is also a forum for talking back. Most blogs have a comments section where
readers may share views, correct inaccuracies, and criticize biased or unfair views.
Sometimes these may be more informative and interesting than the original entry.
Many blogs will have a trackback capability to allow readers to see where else the
entry has been cited, and many blogs will link to other blogs of potential interest to
the reader. New applications such as Gush (http://2entwine.com) combine RSS
with instant mes saging, allowing for direct real-time contact between author and
reader (substitute analyst and client), and the developers have also experimented
with video and voice chat as one new direction for it.
• Independent – This is a potential minefield issue, but to be fair and discrete, the
blogger brigade, in my experience, is not constrained by external considerations of
remaining polite or shying away from nebulous or difficult issues. Blog entries
often focus on sensitive issues such as questionable corporate ethics and poor
standards of customer service, but are also likely to address small unlisted
companies with unique products/services, or entirely non-corporate developments
such as municipal wireless network initiatives. Additionally, we may often find
coverage of listed companies which no broking analysts cover (for example,
Bloomberg data shows no active coverage of Calypso Wireless, a $135m company
with an interesting product set).
Bloggers – replacement Is there really a case for saying that blogging will make traditional analysis obsolete?
or compliment to brokers’ This is very debatable. What we haven’t seen (yet) is a blogger, for example, dissecting
analysts? a company balance sheet in detail, making independent financial forecasts, or doing
discounted cash flow analysis. That day may come, however, and in the meantime, if
we assume that buy-side analysts and fund managers possess those same skills and are
working from the same data (which they should be under fair disclosure rules), then it
is not difficult to see investors increasingly relying on these less orthodox and more
timely sources of market intelligence, and doing the valuation work themselves. We
think this is already happening to some extent. The risk in this dynamic is that the sell-
side analysts continue to beaver away writing Hold notes on Deutsche Telekom and
emailing them to clients, who might not really want them – in fact, might want them
less with each passing month.
If you can’t beat ‘em… How can the brokers respond? One idea might be to incorporate the very same tools
and approach being used by the blogosphere. If we assume that IM/presence-based
applications (including voice/video) are to become an integral part of corporate
communications in the next few years, then this enables a level of immediacy and
interaction in creating and marketing research. Blogging tools could be just one added
feature of that newfound interactivity. This idea is not an alien one to the financial
industry. Venture capitalist Tim Draper (a founding investor in Skype) has used his
blog for the past two years to solicit ideas from readers for promising new business
models and products, and has offered the most interesting candidates a chance to pitch
their ideas to him live via a video conference link (http://www.alwayson-
network.com/comments.php?id=4121_0_6_0_C). Is it so far-fetched to suggest that
some variant of this model could be employed by the brokers in exchanging ideas and
information with investors? We certainly think there may be some pent up demand on
the part of the beleaguered fund managers/buy-side analysts, who are under ever
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
greater pressure to manage information and news flow. An analyst with a hedge fund
recently gave me his views:
“I feel very strongly that the sell-side needs to: (a) improve the originality of
their research, and; (b) provide better syndication options via RSS so that I can
deal with the countless upgrades/downgrades, notes, etc.”
We think awareness of One main issue affecting the rate at which the brokers move is likely to be awareness
the blogosphere may be of technology, and perhaps of the potential of the blogging phenomenon itself, both of
low which we think may be generally poor. We were intrigued by some data included
recently in the first anniversary report from the Muniwireless.com site, which covers
the phenomenon of municipally-funded/managed wireless networking projects in an in-
depth and authoritative manner. In it, author/site founder Esme Vos lists (by category)
the 466 subscribers to a weekly summary newsletter which she distributes via email
(multiple subscribers from the same organization are counted only once, so the
numbers in the table below do not add up to 466). It is interesting to note that, of the
various categories of recipients listed, broking analysts do not appear at all, and neither
do institutional investors, apart from venture capitalists. While it is possible that some
of the recipients listed as “other” could be receiving the newsletter via a private
Hotmail account rather than the company email, we think this is unlikely. We also
concede that some analysts/investors may be subscribing via an RSS newsreader, but
we think this is even less likely, given the email addiction of the industry as a whole. It
is intriguing to ponder why, when the integrators, operators and vendors all seem to see
this relatively niche segment of the market as worthy of monitoring, there are no
visible analysts or investors on the list?
Recipients of the Muniwireless weekly email newsletter, by category

Category Recipients
City and regional governments 54
Systems integrators and consulting firms 57
Telcos (fixed line and mobile) 14
Cable/satellite 7
Vendors (mostly hardware, a few software) 90
ISPs and VOIP providers 34
Journalists 16
Research firms (the kind that sell analyst reports) 13
PR firms 10
Community volunteer organizations (e.g., Wireless Amsterdam) 9
Venture capital 7
Utility companies 3
Educational institutions (universities/state colleges) 13
Conference organizers 3
Other (people with email addresses at Hotmail or Netscape) 57
Source: Daiwa estimates, from Muniwireless.com anniversary report, June 2004
A matter of culture and One other stumbling block to adoption may lie in the attitude the brokers might take to
vision, more than what they perceive as a freer flow of information. The currently highly conservative
technology approach to compliance issues makes for one source of anxiety – how to ensure that
readers in the US don’t see or hear something they’re not supposed to? The other
would be the legacy of brokers’ research as a closed information loop, theoretically
only available to clients, potential clients, or subscribers to research aggregators such
as Multex or First Call. In practice, we know that brokers’ notes get circulated far more
widely than this, but this is the unofficial distribution system that is likely to plague
any type of publication. The assumption is that the research product is free, but
exclusive to clients or prospective clients on the implicit understanding that access to it
involves getting some business out of it at some point. If the brokers take on an open-
access approach, how does this model translate? RSS does allow for conditional
access, so the brokers could tailor specific content feeds for particular classes of clients
(those physically present in the US, those interested only in telecoms), or perhaps
move to a chargeable structure with different tiers of access privileges. Adding richer
communication tools and comments sections/discussion forums would make for a more
interactive experience. This would be a chance to move from brokers’ research as a
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
July 2004 9
“push” medium, to one based on “push and pull.” The key question is probably one of
culture and vision more than technology, and we will see who goes for it first. The
risks for those left behind might be great.
Annex: Analysts, who needs ‘em?

Will you miss me when Would anyone miss the brokers if they disappeared? To assess this we must first get a
I’m gone? handle on the track record of analysts in calling it right. In the chart below, we have
plotted current year net EPS revisions (3-month moving average), net analyst ratings
revisions (also 3-month moving average) and the relative performance of the STOXX
Telecoms index (rebased) on a monthly basis from December 1997 to 5th July, 2004,
when the data was collected. Careful perusal of the chart reveals a history of very
mixed performance.
Trail of tears – analyst forecast revisions, ratings trends and the sector
2.5 STOXX Telecoms relative performance vs. STOXX 600, rebased (RHS) 250
2.0 200
1.5 150
1.0 100
0.5 STOXX Telecoms analyst net EPS revisions for STOXX Telecoms analyst net ratings 50
current FY, 3-month moving average (LHS) revisions, 3-month moving average (LHS)
0.0 0
Dec-97 Sep-98 Jun-99 Mar-00 Nov-00 Aug-01 May-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04
Source: Daiwa estimates, from JCFQuant data
A blow-by-blow account
Like nailing jelly to the The EPS and ratings revision lines track pretty well up until 1999, when things start to
wall go profoundly wrong. From the beginning of Q2 1999 through Q1 2001, the trends in
EPS and ratings revisions are largely at odds. The analysts’ ratings get bullish as EPS
momentum turns negative (Q2 99), then ratings downgrades intensify through a period
when EPS revision momentum is neutral to mildly favorable (Q2 to Q4 99). During
this period of intensely negative ratings revision momentum, the sector goes up by
35% in absolute terms. The brokers then turn wildly positive in December 1999,
upgrading the sector into Q1 2000 as it moves up 64% - yet EPS revisions momentum
turns negative at exactly the same time! (As an analyst who had Sonera on a buy rating
at another firm at the time, I must hold my hand up and admit that I also fell prey to the
collective insanity prevalent at the time.)
Behind the curve STOXX Telecoms peaks at 1,063 on 6th March, 2000, and never looks back, but EPS
revision momentum turns positive, and ratings revision momentum remains positive
for another three months, while the sector loses 35%. There is then a process of
capitulation, which runs through April 2001, when we see upgrade momentum reverse
into a positive trend, though the sector loses another 34% over this period. Momentum
turns negative just as the sector rallies 16.5% in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. As this
rally fizzles, the analysts upgrade EPS numbers and ratings, leading with their
collective chin into a 16% decline in the sector.
Getting it together in The sector then begins a period of strong relative performance in June 2002, rising
2002 14.9% in absolute terms over the following year, and this time the analysts are on
board (we upgraded the sector at the beginning of August), aided by increasing
confidence in restructuring potential, recapitalization and management changes within
the five problem companies in the sector (BT Group, DT, FT, KPN and Sonera).
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
However, it is interesting to note that the ratings revisions lack the conviction shown in
the EPS revision trend, as though perhaps there is an element of disbelief among
analysts.
Irrational exuberance By the end of May 2003, the rally has ended (we downgraded the sector on 27th May),
returns? and revisions/ratings are in a downtrend. However, EPS revision momentum
subsequently turns positive, followed after a two-month lag by ratings revisions, and
both run wild in H2 2003. The sector rises 10% in H2 in absolute terms, but on a
relative basis underperforms the broad market by 4.6%. Moving into 2004, EPS
revision momentum has been strongly negative to date, but in the second quarter we
have seen positive ratings momentum, leading us to ponder whether ratings and
numbers are beginning to diverge again as they did in 1999.
Brokers on the whole are Admittedly, with an aggregate set of data like consensus numbers, inevitably much
a bad directional detail is obscured. Clearly there have been some very good individual stock and sector
indicator calls in the past seven years, but as a directional indicator of where the sector is going
overall, we cannot escape the conclusion that historically, analysts overall are not a
reliable indicator. Based on the relative performance of the sector and ratings revision
trends over the 26 quarters covered by this analysis, we determine that consensus was a
sound directional indicator for only 10 quarters, or a hit rate of 38.5%. Consistency is
not a strong trait either – the longest stretch of good calls was three quarters (Q3 2000
and Q1 2001). The only year where the brokers got it right more than half the time was
2000, strangely the time when the sector bubble burst.
Good times, bad times – Brokers’ history of getting it right

Year Number of “good” quarters
1998 1
1999 2
2000 3
2001 1
2002 2
2003 1
2004 H1 0
Source: Daiwa estimates, from JCFQuant data
Epilogue: Knowledge is power

In visiting a number of clients over the past year or so, and in speaking with friends
and acquaintances generally, it has been striking to see so little awareness of RSS and
its potential to cut down on email overload and websurfing time. Presumably this
means that a great many telecom investors out there may be unaware of some of the
very fine information resources available in real time, many of which deal with aspects
of the industry not commonly addressed in standard broker research products. I present
a list of resources which I find particularly informative below. In doing so, I am in no
way endorsing the views of the creators of these sites. I simply wish to convey that I
have found them very useful and unique. In each case I have copied the RSS/XML
feed, which will only work for those who use an RSS news reader. Others will need to
simply copy the URL portion of the address to access standard HTML. Undoubtedly I
have missed out something valuable, so apologies in advance for omissions, and thanks
in advance for any suggested additions.
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
July 2004 11
A resource list of potentially useful RSS feeds for the buy-side analyst/fund manager
Name Description RSS feed
Corante: Get Real Part of the growing Corante techblog http://www.corante.com/getreal/index.xml
network. Good coverage of new
developments in instant messaging, social
software and collaboration tools. Author
Stowe Boyd is currently leading a
campaign to abandon email in favor of IM.
Corante: Mobile Mesh Written by Paris-based consultant Marc http://mcabiling.persozone.net/mobilemesh/mobilemesh.xml
Networking Cabiling, focuses on the not widely
covered developments in wireless mesh
networking.
Gizmodo Devoted to new gadgets of every http://www.gizmodo.com/atom.xml
description, but with a heavy presence
from mobile phones, PDAs, digital music
players, and the like.
Engadget Similar angle to Gizmodo, but definitely http://www.engadget.com/rss.xml
worth adding to your newsreader.
Geekzone Despite the name, a digestible site with http://www.geekzone.co.nz/geekzone_rss.asp
interesting takes on new developments
within tech.
Techdirt Coverage of the tech world from a http://www.techdirt.com/techdirt_rss.xml
decidedly irreverent point of view.
Wireless Watch Japan Ground level view of all things wireless in http://www.wirelesswatch.jp/backend.php
the Japanese market (small registration
fee required).
Reiter’s Wireless Data In- depth, first-hand user experiences from http://reiter.weblogger.com/xml/rss.xml
Web Log an authority in the field. Very US-centric,
but a good read.
Smartmobs Coverage of social aspects and impacts of http://www.smartmobs.com/index.rdf
mobile technology. Always an interesting
read.
Wireless IQ Comprehensive coverage of the wireless http://www.wirelessiq.info/rss/newsfeed.jsp
networking equipment and services world.
Daily Wireless Some amazingly detailed coverage of http://dailywireless.org//newsrss10.php
developments in wireless technology and
services.
Wi- Fi Networking News Similar coverage area to Daily Wireless, http://wifinetnews.com/index.rdf
but with a tighter focus on Wi-Fi.
Muniwireless Coverage of developments in municipal http://www.muniwireless.com/reports/index.xml
wireless network projects worldwide. The
authoritative site on this issue.
Om Malik on Broadband Wide-ranging coverage of telecom/tech by http://gigaom.com/feed/atom/
Business 2.0 journalist and author.
VoIP Watch Wide-ranging coverage of the VoIP http://andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch/atom.xml
phenomenon.
Slashdot More moderated chat room than blog, this http://slashdot.org/slashdot.rss
is often an interesting source of obscure
information, particularly in the comments
threads.
GLOBAL P ERSPECTIVE
News
Europe
BT and Yahoo! formally launched their co-branded Communicator IM/VoIP product
in the UK market, with no modifications to previously announced features or strategy.
Video conferencing should be added in 2005.
Reuters reported a source close the European Commission as saying that the EC will
demand that France Telecom pay €1.1bn in back taxes to the French government
relating to the period preceding its partial privatization. The report also claimed that the
Commission considered asking FT to pay €7bn relating to the issue of “psychological
state aid” ahead of the rights issue in 2003, but did not feel the legal grounds for such a
step were sound.
The British Institute of International & Comparative Law released a detailed report
benchmarking transparency in telecom regulation across six EU member states.
Germany and Spain fared worst, with the report estimating that the average time
required for resolution of regulatory disputes involving legal action is 5 – 6 years in
Germany and up to five years in Spain. During the time frame 1997 – 2003, Germany
had 750 regulatory and dispute resolution orders from the national regulator and 1,000
court appeals, 500 of which are still pending.
Pan-European ISP Tiscali is being sued in a Belgian court by SABAM, a Belgian

music and publishing industry group representing 25,000 artists. The suit claims that
Tiscali contributes to copyright infringement by not attempting to block or degrade
traffic from P2P file sharing sites. Previous actions against file sharing have focused on
end-users and the P2P networks themselves, but this is the first time to our knowledge
when the industry has attempted to sue a perceived "enabler" of copyright
infringement. This case could serve as a precedent for future action at national level
against other ISPs.
Data released by the OECD showed that European countries occupy seven of the top
ten positions in the global file sharing list for 2003. Germany is second only to the US,
accounting for 10.2% of global P2P network users. In France and Germany, it is now
estimated that 0.6% of the general population has used P2P networks at some point.
Despite reports earlier this year that file sharing was on the wane, the OECD data
found that the number of simultaneous users of all measured file sharing networks
globally has risen from just over 6m in August, 2003, to nearly 10m in April 2004.
Separate research from UK company CacheLogic showed 10m concurrent users on the
major P2P platforms, sharing 10 petabytes of data (that’s 10m gigabytes) at any given
time.
Virgin Mobile announced on July 7th details concerning its IPO scheduled for later
this month. The pricing and allocation of shares is expected to take place on July 20,
2004 with the admission to the Official List of the UK Listing Authority and trading on
the LSE scheduled for July 26, 2004. The indicative price range has been set at 235p to
285p per share implying an EV range of £900m to £1,025m (assuming pro-forma net
debt as at March 31, 2004 of £311m). The offer consists of up to 98m shares (not
including the shares that may be acquired under the over-allotment arrangements)
which, taking into account the indicative price range, should yield proceeds of £230m
to £279m. The free-float, prior to the exercise of the over-allotment, is expected to be
roughly 37%, on a fully-diluted basis. A further 14.7m shares are available in the over-
allotment which, if it was exercised, would result in a free-float of approximately 43%.
NEWS – EUROPE
July 2004 13
US
Sprint Corporation announced on June 16 that it will cut 1,100 employees, 850 from
Sprint Business Solution (SBS) and 250 from administrative and IT functions that
support SBS. The company had earlier slashed the same number of employees by
closing a number of customer call centers. This latest announcement reflects sluggish
enterprise demand, but the company said better-than-expected improvement in its
wireless business would offset the impact of SBS. Sprint also reiterated its FY04
guidance: EPS at $0.70~0.75, and free cash flow of $1.8bn.
Cablevision announced it is introducing a ‘Triple Play’ package deal, in which the

company sells cable TV (more than 140 channels), high-speed Internet, and IP phone
services at $29.95 each. With the total package coming to only $89.95, it is the most
aggressive offer in the US. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications asked the FCC to
approve special treatment if the company started offering FTTH service. Verizon asked
the agency to treat it as an information service provider instead of common carrier, as
the latter category is required to open its networks to competitors. The company also
asked the FCC to finalize regulation related to broadband service offerings. The
company insisted broadband service from telephone companies should be treated
equally with that of cable operators. Meanwhile, Verizon said it is applying for a cable
franchise in order to offer TV, in addition to Internet and voice service, over FTTH.
SBC Communications announced on June 22 that it will invest $4-6bn over the next
five years to construct IP based broadband networks. The company plans to roll out
FTTP (fiber-to-the-premises) in new housing and FTTN (fiber-to-the-node) in existing
buildings. SBC is finishing its Project Pronto, in which the company has laid out
optical fibers connecting central offices to remote terminals. Under a new initiative the
company will connect remote terminals to buildings with optical fiber. At the same
time, SBC will begin to replace circuit switches with packet switches in order to offer
IP phone, Internet and TV services. Earlier the company announced it is deploying
Siemens softswitches, and this time the company also announced it is using on IPTV
platform offered by Microsoft.
Sprint Corporation on June 22 announced it will invest in CDMA 1x EV-DO

(Evolution Data Optimized) for its next generation mobile data service. The company
will start offering the service in select markets in 2H04 and continue to expand
coverage to a majority of markets through 2005. Sprint earlier said it had opted for 1x
EV-DV, but obviously the company didn’t want to be left out waiting for the latest
technologies to mature when competitors had already started deploying currently
available next generation infrastructure. The company plans to spend $1bn on the
project, the majority of which is to be realized in 2005, with completion by 2006.
CNET news reported that Cingular Wireless had issued a RFP (request for proposal)
to equipment vendors in order to launch UMTS service using 850MHz in 2005.
Cingular Wireless selected Lucent Technologies for field trials in Atlanta this year, but
the company hasn’t decided which vendors it will use in commercial deployment.
AT&T announced on June 23 that it will stop accepting new customers in 7 of 46

states where the company offers local telephone services. The company will continue
to provide services to existing customers and to exploit markets for enterprise local
service and DSL services. On the same day, the company announced it is reducing its
financial guidance for FY04. The reduction came mainly from continued price
competition faced by AT&T Business Services, but the consumer business has also
been hurt by its failure to expand consumer local service, as well as higher marketing
costs, as it rolls out consumer VoIP services. On June 24 Standard and Poor’s
announced it is placing AT&T’s short-term credit rating of A-3 on credit watch with a
negative implication. AT&T’s long-term credit rating of BBB has been on the negative
watch list since April 28. The credit agency said the reduced guidance prompted the
action, and the downgrade could be one to two notches.
NEWS – US
At a July 8 open meeting, the Federal Communications Commission voted to resolve
interference problems at public safety agencies caused by Nextel Communications.
The Commission approved Nextel’s proposal to surrender licenses in the 800MHz
spectrum and instead receive licenses in the 1.9GHz spectrum. The FCC values
licenses in 1.9GHz at $4.8bn. Nextel will compensate by surrendering 4MHz licenses
in 700MHz and 4.5MHz licenses in 800MHz, in addition to subsidy payments for the
public safety agencies to realign themselves to the new spectrum. Nextel
Communications must pay the balance in cash to make up the shortfall from $4.8bn.
The FCC also ordered Nextel to set up a credit facility in an escrow account to
compensate as much as $2.5bn to the public safety agencies. Meanwhile, the General
Accounting Office announced it has initiated an investigation as to whether the
decision is fair to the federal government. Industry associations also denounced it as
unfair, and Verizon Communications, the decision’s most avid opponent, said it would
consider making criminal allegations against Nextel.
NEWS – US
July 2004 15
Japan
On July 7, the Telecommunication Carriers Association (TCA) announced that the total
number of mobile subscribers as of end-June had risen 384,000 MoM to 82.71 million.
KDDI (au) acquired 157,000 net subscriber additions (41% of total), NTT DoCoMo
166,000 (43.3%), and Vodafone 64,000 (16.7%). NTT DoCoMo regained the top
position for the first time in nine months. As for 3G services, NTT DoCoMo attracted
573,000 net subscriber additions and KDDI (au) gained 342,000. Vodafone is still
behind its peers due to its poor line up of handsets.
On July 9, Usen announced that its number of broadband subscribers had reached
267,696 as of end-June.
On July 12, the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and
Telecommunications announced that the number of xDSL subscribers as of end-June
had increased 250,000 MoM to 12.07 million. Softbank BB’s share of net additions
was up 0.9 percentage points MoM to 37.7%, and the share of NTT East and West
rose 4.3 percentage points MoM to 40.5%. Softbank BB admitted in mid-June that
there was a leak of customer call logs and this may affect its net additions in July.
On July 12, KDDI (au) announced three new WIN handset models. We note that it
announced enriched content and new rates at the same time, with the latter in particular
aimed at benefiting average users. While mobile operators have generally announced
new models and services separately, we think KDDI’s simultaneous announcement is
more effective in appealing to consumers. Although KDDI (au) lost its top position in
net subscriber additions to NTT DoCoMo in June because consumers refrained from
replacing handsets ahead of new model launches, the company is expected to maintain
its momentum thanks to the new models and services.
NEWS – JAPAN
Asia ex-Japan
It was reported by the SCMP that two senior executives from separate mainland
carriers have confirmed that the State Council and the Stated-owned Assets
Supervision and Administration Commission was reviewing a plan to merge China
Mobile Communications Group with China Network Communication Group and China
Telecommunications Group with China United Telecommunications Group. According
to the news report, the government was convinced the merger plan could resolve the
3G licence problem as only two next-generation mobile licenses would be needed
instead of four. The MII and National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
recently issued a notice to the six telecom operators which aims to strengthen their
control over telecom tariffs. The notice reportedly (Zhongguo Jingji Shibao) requests
that the local branch office of each operator seeks the prior approval of its respective
head office on new promotional offerings before submitting it to the local regulators
for approval. At the same time, the head offices of each operator have to report those
new promotional plans they agree to to the MII and NDRC. China Netcom has
reportedly (SCMP) secured permission from China’s central government to list on the
Hong Kong Stock Exchange as a red chip. It was also reported in The Asia Wall Street
Journal that the company hopes to acquire the entire Hong Kong telephone network of
PCCW, allowing it to combine this with its network in southern China. According to
Bloomberg, quoting unidentified sources, China Netcom plans to seek permission
from U.S. and Hong Kong regulators to sell about U$1.5bn worth of shares in an IPO.
According to the news report, it may file with the Securities and Exchange
Commission in the week starting 12 July and sell shares as soon as September. PCCW
denied that it has reached a framework agreement with China Netcom in relation to
the sale of an equity stake in the company’s core telecom operation and denied that
China Netcom had offered a price of HK$6.00 per share for such an equity stake.
According to PCCW’s announcement, it is still in discussions with China Netcom but
no definitive agreement or letter of intent has yet been signed by the parties. Unicom
announced the pricing details of the rights issues proposed earlier by its A-share
shareholder (China United Telecom, 600050 CH). The total number of rights shares
will be 1.5bn and the price is Rmb3.00 per share. The estimated proceeds of Rmb4.5bn
will all be used for the acquisition of part of the shareholding of Unicom Group in
Unicom BVI. In the rights issue prospectus, Unicom also disclosed that USO has been
launched on a trial basis in certain areas in 1H04, although the formal USO scheme is
still being studied by the relevant government departments. Unicom further said that if
the MII decides to fully launch USO, the company’s operating costs may rise.
Yonhap reports that SK Telecom (SKT) will spend W700m on a 40-day campaign
offering gift certificates and free overseas travel for customers who switch to its service
from KT Freetel (KTF). Asia Pulse reported that MIC Minister Chin Dae-je
announced that the Korean government will set a timetable by the end of July for
issuing 2.3Ghz licences. The Minister also reportedly said there will be a further
announcement in August on details such as how many licences will be issued. The
MIC announced new interconnection rates for 2004, which will take a retro-active
effect from 1 January.
The Singapore government has upheld a December 2003 ruling by the IDA that
Singapore Telecom should provide wholesale local leased circuits (LLCs) at prices
30% below its retail prices for connections from end-users’ sites to facilities-based
operators’ exchange buildings or data centers. For connection from end-users’ sites to
SingTel’s exchange buildings, the price should be 50% below SingTel’s retail prices.
The six-month lock-up period on Temasek selling more of its holding in Singapore
Telecom has now expired. In addition, Capital Group has trimmed its holding in
SingTel from 5.96% to 4.997%.
SingTel-Optus announced that its OptusNet broadband customer base has now grown
to 185,000, marking a 36,000 increase since 31 March 2004. OptusNet Cable
customers now total 162,000 and OptusNet DSL customers 23,000. In addition, the
company has also introduced a new entry-level DSL plan (named ‘yes’ Basic 200mb)
NEWS – ASIA
July 2004 17
for a flat bundled rate of A$29.95 a month, offering 200mb of data and a download
speed of up to 256kbps. Australian energy retailer, Alinta Ltd., has agreed to sell its
66% stake in Australian fibre-optic network operator, Uecomm Ltd. (UEC.AU), to
SingTel-Optus. Optus’ A$226.8m offer for Uecomm is now unconditional, as it has
acquired more than 65% of Uecomm’s shares. Telstra and SingTel-Optus have agreed
to new fixed-line access pricing, which will last until mid-2006. No pricing details
were released by the companies. According to Dow Jones, Telecom Corporation of
New Zealand (TNZ) and TelstraClear (TLC), a subsidiary of Telstra, have applied
separately for the New Zealand Commerce Commission (NZCC) to review the price of
residential wholesale products. The NZCC is expected to calculate residential
wholesale prices by measuring the cost savings from TNZ supplying services at the
wholesale rather than the retail level. The current pricing methodology for wholesale
products recommended by the NZCC is a 2% discount to TNZ’s retail pricing.
According to Dow Jones, TelstraClear, Telstra’s New Zealand subsidiary, is still
planning to launch a 3G mobile network in New Zealand. The company said issues
concerning mobile number portability, roaming and termination were the main areas
holding back a decision to build its own network. According to The Australian
Financial Review, the appointment of a new chairman for Telstra will be made within
a few weeks, and that the appointment will be a surprise and a controversial decision.
The newspaper also said several existing board members were candidates, although
several external candidates were also in the running. Among the internal candidates,
the newspaper named CSIRO chairman, Catherine Livingstone, Reserve Bank director
Donald McGauchie and IOOF Chairman Charles Macek. The Australian government
has announced the appointment of a new telecommunications minister, to replace Mr.
Daryl Williams, who oversaw few regulatory changes during his tenure. Mr. Williams,
who is retiring from politics, will be replaced by assistant treasurer Ms. Helen Coonan.
According to Reuters, Vodafone Australia has announced it will launch its 3G
services before June 2005. The company has already appointed Nokia to upgrade its
existing 2G GSM based network to the WCDMA standard. According to The
Australian Financial Review, Hutchison Telecom Australia is close to signing a 3G
network sharing agreement with Telstra. Hutchison released a statement neither
denying nor confirming the talks, saying it remained in talks with several carriers, and
Telstra was one of them.
NEWS – ASIA
Statistics and valuations
Cellular subs
2001A 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F
Europe (m)
Western Europe 288.8 303.2 325.0 343.2 358.0 368.7 376.1
% change 18 5 7 6 4 3 2
UK 44.9 49.9 51.3 53.7 54.9 56.1 57.3

% change 12 11 3 5 2 2 2
France 37.0 38.6 41.7 44.5 46.1 47.3 47.7

% change 25 4 8 7 4 3 1
Germany 54.2 57.0 62.2 66.4 68.1 69.7 70.5

% change 13 5 9 7 2 2 1
Italy 49.9 52.9 55.2 56.3 56.5 56.8 57.4

% change 19 6 4 2 1 1 1
Spain 28.8 33.2 37.0 38.3 39.1 39.5 39.9

% change 19 15 12 3 2 1 1
Source: Mobile Communications/DIR forecasts
USA (m)
USA 128.4 140.8 158.7 173.8 177.9 182.2 183.7
% change 17 10 13 10 2 2 1
Japan (m)
Japan 67.1 73.5 79.8 84.7 88.4 91.2 93.2
% change 16 10 9 6 4 3 2
Asia (ex-Japan) (m)

China 144.8 206.6 268.7 320.4 353.8 389.0 424.4
% change 70 43 30 19 10 10 9
Hong Kong 5.7 6.2 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0

% change 9 9 16 3 3 2 2
Singapore 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2

% change 17 13 7 10 3 3 3
Korea 29.0 32.4 33.6 36.8 38.2 38.9 39.8

% change 8 12 4 10 4 2 2
Taiwan 21.6 23.9 25.1 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.2

% change 21 11 5 (5) 2 2 1
Australia 12.0 13.5 15.2 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.3

% change 18 12 13 8 4 4 3
New Zealand 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4

% change 24 7 10 8 5 4 4
STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

July 2004 19
Cellular penetration
2001A 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F
Europe (%)
Western Europe 74.8 78.5 84.1 88.9 92.7 95.5 97.4
UK 76.4 84.9 85.9 90.0 92.0 94.0 96.0
France 66.4 69.3 69.8 74.5 77.2 79.3 79.9
Germany 65.9 69.3 75.8 81.0 83.0 85.0 86.0
Italy 87.2 92.3 96.1 98.0 98.5 99.0 100.0
Spain 72.7 83.7 92.8 96.0 98.0 99.0 100.0
Source: Mobile Communications/DIR forecasts
USA (%)
USA 46.2 50.2 56.1 60.9 61.8 62.8 62.8
Japan (%)
Japan 53.9 58.6 63.2 67.1 70.0 72.1 73.6
Asia (ex-Japan) (%)

China 11.3 16.1 20.7 24.5 26.8 29.3 31.7
Hong Kong 84.4 91.1 105.6 107.6 109.6 110.6 111.6
Singapore 71.2 77.9 83.1 90.3 92.4 94.4 96.4
Korea 61.0 68.0 70.1 76.5 79.0 80.0 81.5
Taiwan 96.6 106.2 111.0 105.0 107.0 109.0 110.0
Australia 63.4 70.5 78.9 84.5 87.0 89.0 90.5
New Zealand 60.4 63.3 68.4 73.5 76.5 79.0 81.0

Cellular ARPU
GDP*
(US$ PPP/capita) 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F Name of operator
Europe (US$)
UK 24,700 33.0 37.5 45.2 46.8 44.8 44.7 43.5 Vodafone UK
% change n.a. 14 20 4 (4) 0 (3)
% non-voice 12 14 16 17 17 18 19
Line yield (US$) 145 182 200 234 235 238 232
USA (US$)
USA 36,300 45.6 46.2 46.6 46.5 47.9 47.4 n.a. Industry Average
% change 5 1 1 0 3 (1) n.a.
Line yield (US$) - - - - -
Japan (US$)
Japan 27,200 77.7 74.4 72.3 68.0 65.8 n.a. n.a. NTT DoCoMo
% change (2) (4) (3) (6) (3) n.a. n.a.
% non(voice 18 22 25 25 27 n.a. n.a.
Line yield (US$) 404 399 381 347 340 n.a. n.a.
Asia (ex-Japan) (US$)

China 4,300 17.0 13.9 12.3 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.6 China Mobile HK
% change (36) (18) (11) (12) (2) 0 0
% non-voice 3 4 8 11 14 16 17
Line yield (US$) 127 99 86 74 71 71 71
Hong Kong 25,000 23.4 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.2 26.1 26.8 SmarTone
% change (7) 0 2 3 3 4 3
% non-voice 2 4 5 6 10 14 17
Line yield (US$) 10 74 99 117 115 115 129
Singapore 26,500 30.3 32.2 30.8 31.4 31.5 31.6 33.3 Singapore Telecom
% change (32) 6 (4) 2 1 0 5
% non-voice 0 13 17 21 26 28 31
Korea 18,000 31.5 32.7 33.9 34.7 36.1 36.9 38.3 SK Telecom
% change n.a. 4 4 2 4 2 4
% non-voice 5 10 16 20 23 26 29
Line yield (US$)
Taiwan 17,200 22.8 18.4 17.2 19.4 19.6 20.2 20.5 TCC
% change n.a. (19) (7) 13 1 3 2
% non-voice 1 2 5 5 7 9 11
Line yield (US$)
Australia 24,000 28.8 27.1 27.9 28.3 29.9 31.0 32.2 Telstra
% change (2) (6) 3 1 5 4 4
% non-voice 4 7 10 14 19 24 27
New Zealand 20,200 14.8 15.7 19.7 21.7 24.6 26.2 27.7 Telecom New Zealand
% change (39) 6 26 10 13 7 6
% non-voice 1 3 6 11 17 21 25
Note: Line yield (EBITDA per sub in US$) is only provided for operators that breakdown EBITDA by business segment.
* GDP PPP figures are for 2001 (Source: CIA Worldfactbook)

July 2004 21
Broadband Internet subs
2001A 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F
Europe (m)
UK 0.34 1.37 3.19 4.90 5.70 6.30 6.70
% change 817 303 133 54 16 11 6
Germany 2.46 3.37 4.39 6.00 6.60 7.40 8.00

% change 274 37 30 37 10 12 8
France 0.61 1.69 3.42 5.00 5.60 6.00 6.30

% change 271 178 102 46 12 7 5
Netherlands 0.47 1.12 1.72 2.40 2.80 3.10 3.20

% change 113 139 54 40 17 11 3
Western Europe Total 6.51 13.56 23.00 35.00 42.00 46.00 49.00
% change 272 108 70 52 20 10 7
USA (m)
USA 12.8 19.9 28.2 35.0 42.2 49.8 57.8
% change 81 55 42 24 21 18 16
Japan (m)
Japan 2.8 7.8 13.6 18.6 23.3 27.3 n.a.
% change 347 175 75 36 25 17 n.a.
Asia (ex-Japan) (m)

China 1.0 3.3 10.4 22.3 35.5 44.4 54.0
% change 232 244 210 116 59 25 22
Hong Kong 0.62 0.99 1.23 1.47 1.71 1.93 2.14

% change 59 59 24 20 16 13 11
Singapore 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.52 0.62 0.71 0.77

% change 85 70 71 32 20 13 9
Korea 7.8 10.4 11.2 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.1

% change 94 33 8 5 5 4 2
Taiwan 1.13 2.10 3.00 3.90 5.05 6.30 7.55

% change 393 86 43 30 29 25 20
Australia 0.22 0.41 0.69 1.08 1.58 2.19 2.90

% change 201 83 69 57 46 38 33
New Zealand 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.23 0.30 0.37 0.46

% change n.a. 102 66 44 32 26 22

Valuation
–––––––––––––EV/EBITDA ––––––––––– –––––––––––––––EV/sales –––––––––––––
Company Rating Currency Price 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005
Integrated operators
AT&T (T US) 3 US$ 14.96 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
BellSouth (BLS US) 2 US$ 26.00 5.4 5.2 4.0 3.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6
BT Group (BT/A LN) 3 GBp 191 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
China Telecom (728 HK) 2 HK$ 2.55 5.9 5.1 4.2 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.9
Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT) 3 NT$ 52.50 5.0 4.7 4.3 3.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2
Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR) 3 Eur 14.15 7.4 6.3 5.6 4.6 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6
France Telecom (FTE FP) 4 Eur 20.45 8.9 6.3 5.7 5.3 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0
KPN (KPN NA) 4 Eur 6.26 6.4 5.0 4.8 4.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7
KT Corp (3020 KS) 2 Won 36,950 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2
NTT (9432 JP) 2 Yen 578,000 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
PCCW (8 HK) 4 HK$ 5.45 7.7 7.9 6.8 6.1 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.1
Portugal Telecom (PTC PL) 3 Eur 8.63 6.8 7.2 6.2 4.9 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.0
Qwest (Q US) 4 US$ 3.55 6.4 6.8 6.2 5.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
SBC (SBC US) 4 US$ 23.54 5.6 6.4 6.4 5.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
Singapore Telecom (ST SP) 3 S$ 2.26 9.8 8.2 7.5 7.0 4.9 3.9 3.7 3.4
Sprint (FON US) 2 US$ 18.17 6.1 5.2 4.4 3.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3
Swisscom (SCMN VX) 4 CHF 415.00 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.3 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.4
Telecom Italia ordinaries (TIT IM) 2 Eur 2.51 5.3 5.3 6.3 5.8 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.5
Telecom Italia savers (TITR IM) 3 Eur 1.80 5.3 5.3 6.3 5.8 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.5
Telecom New Zealand (TEL NZ) 2 NZD 5.83 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8
Telefonica (TEF SM) 3 Eur 12.05 7.2 7.7 7.0 6.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.7
Telenor (TEL NO) 2 NOK 46.70 8.1 5.8 5.0 4.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6
TeliaSonera (TLSN SS) 4 SEK 31.90 7.4 5.5 5.3 4.9 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7
Telstra (TLS AU) 2 A$ 5.00 7.9 7.3 7.1 6.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3
Verizon (VZ US) 2 US$ 35.16 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7
Weighted average 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.8 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0
Cellular/wireless -centric
China Mobile (941 HK) 1 HK$ 21.85 6.1 4.8 4.1 3.4 3.7 2.8 2.3 1.9
China Unicom (762 HK) 3 HK$ 5.90 6.0 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.2
KDDI (9433 JP) 1 Yen 587,000 6.8 5.3 4.4 3.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0
KT Freetel (3239 KS) 3 Won 20,000 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
M1 (M1 SP) 3 S$ 1.47 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2
mmO2 (OOM LN) UR GBp 94 10.1 7.3 6.0 4.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3
Nextel (NXTL US) 1 US$ 25.16 11.8 8.3 6.0 4.7 4.3 3.2 2.5 2.1
NTT DoCoMo (9437 JP) 2 Yen 184,000 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6
SK Telecom (1767 KS) 2 Won 168,500 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
Smartone (315 HK) 2 HK$ 8.50 2.4 1.4 3.5 3.3 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.9
Taiwan Cellular (3045 TT) 3 NT$ 33.30 9.6 7.5 7.0 6.1 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.5
Telecom Italia (TIM IM) 2 Eur 4.57 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.5
Telefonica Moviles (TEM SM) 3 Eur 8.77 12.0 9.6 8.8 7.1 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.2
Vodafone (VOD LN) 3 GBp 120 8.5 7.1 7.1 6.4 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.5
Note: UR; Under Revision due to a change of coverage responsibility
Unless otherwise stated, share price as of 14 July 2004

July 2004 23
Valuation (cont’d)
–––––– EV/Net PP&E ––––– ––––– Capex/sales (%) –––––
AT&T (T US) 3 US$ 14.96 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 10.3 9.1 5.9 6.0
China Telecom (728 HK) 2 HK$ 2.55 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 45.9 43.5 36.9 33.3
Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR) 3 Eur 14.15 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 12.6 11.2 13.0 12.0
France Telecom (FTE FP) 4 Eur 20.45 3.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 16.4 12.1 12.3 12.6
KPN (KPN NA) 4 Eur 6.26 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 9.3 11.7 13.9 15.1
KT Corp (030200 KS) 2 Won 36,950 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 19.7 19.8 19.4 16.7
NTT (9432 JP) 2 Yen 578,000 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 17.8
PCCW (8 HK) 4 HK$ 5.45 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 8.0 8.7 8.2 8.0
Qwest (Q US) 4 US$ 3.55 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 18.0 14.6 14.9 14.6
SBC (SBC US) 4 US$ 23.54 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 15.8 12.8 13.4 14.0
Sprint (FON US) 2 US$ 18.17 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 18.2 14.6 14.3 16.0
Telstra (TLS AU) 2 A$ 5.00 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 16.8 15.3 13.9 14.1
Verizon (VZ US) 2 US$ 35.16 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 19.4 17.5 17.9 17.0
KDDI (9433 JP) 1 Yen 587,000 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 8.8 8.9 10.9 11.5
KT Freetel (3239 KS) 4 Won 20,000 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 18.5 18.9 18.6 18.7
M1 (M1 SP) 3 S$ 1.47 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 16.4 24.1 20.8 17.7
mmO2 (OOM LN) UR GBp 94 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 16.0 25.0 22.0 18.0
Nextel (NXTL US) 1 US$ 25.16 4.1 3.9 3.5 2.9 21.4 15.9 18.6 17.2
NTT DoCoMo (9437 JP) 2 Yen 184,000 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 17.8 16.0 16.0 15.4
SK Telecom (1767 KS) 2 Won 168,500 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.6 22.8 17.8 17.1 17.0
Smartone (315 HK) 2 HK$ 8.50 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.6 8.9 11.2 23.5 15.0

––––––––– P/OFCF ––––––– ––––––––– PER (x) –––––––
Company Rating Curre ncy Price 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005
AT&T (T US) 3 US$ 14.96 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.3 n.m. 6.3 18.8 22.4
China Telecom (728 HK) 2 HK$ 2.55 n.m. 90.1 11.3 8.9 25.0 13.1 9.5 8.3
Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR) 3 Eur 14.15 11.3 7.2 7.7 5.6 n.m. 44.1 17.8 9.4
France Telecom (FTE FP) 4 Eur 20.45 16.1 6.4 6.1 5.9 n.m. 14.0 14.8 11.9
KPN (KPN NA) 4 Eur 6.26 9.9 6.8 6.2 7.8 n.m. 24.1 13.8 14.0
KT Corp (030200 KS) 2 Won 36,950 3.7 6.5 5.1 3.8 6.7 13.7 10.2 8.5
NTT (9432 JP) 2 Yen 578,000 7.1 7.7 10.1 7.8 39.5 14.1 11.7 14.4
PCCW (8 HK) 4 HK$ 5.45 7.5 16.2 10.2 8.6 n.m. n.m. 12.9 11.7
Qwest (Q US) 4 US$ 3.55 3.0 n.m. 39.2 9.3 n.m. 4.1 n.m. n.m.
SBC (SBC US) 4 US$ 23.54 11.9 14.1 14.7 13.3 13.9 9.2 14.2 14.3
Sprint (FON US) 2 US$ 18.17 21.7 8.7 9.0 8.5 42.0 21.3 15.9 12.0
Telecom Italia ordinaries (TIT IM) 2 Eur 2.51 4.0 6.2 6.6 6.8 n.m. 33.9 26.6 21.6
Telecom Italia savers (TITR IM) 3 Eur 1.80 4.0 6.2 6.6 6.8 n.m. 33.9 26.6 21.6
Telefonica (TEF SM) 3 Eur 12.05 6.1 9.9 7.7 6.7 n.m. 27.3 25.1 17.1
Telenor (TEL NO) 2 NOK 46.70 n.m. 12.4 8.5 9.0 n.m. 15.0 15.0 12.2
TeliaSonera (TLSN SS) 4 SEK 31.90 22.6 9.9 10.6 10.8 n.m. 19.5 13.8 12.8
Telstra (TLS AU) 2 A$ 5.00 17.0 13.7 14.6 13.4 17.6 16.5 14.8 14.1
Verizon (VZ US) 2 US$ 35.16 8.5 8.5 9.0 7.3 11.6 13.4 13.9 11.0
China Unicom (762 HK) 3 HK$ 5.90 n.m. 36.9 14.3 7.8 17.2 18.6 11.6 10.3
KDDI (9433 JP) 1 Yen 587,000 10.4 9.6 10.1 10.3 n.m. 21.1 12.7 10.6
KT Freetel (3239 KS) 4 Won 20,000 9.0 8.4 5.9 5.7 7.9 9.9 7.7 8.4
M1 (M1 SP) 3 S$ 1.47 9.5 14.6 16.6 12.2 10.9 10.5 10.4 9.8
mmO2 (OOM LN) UR GBp 94 623.6 n.m. 60.3 15.4 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
Nextel (NXTL US) 1 US$ 25.16 n.m. 16.9 12.8 9.3 14.6 18.6 10.7 8.7
NTT DoCoMo (9437 JP) 2 Yen 184,000 13.0 14.8 16.8 14.6 43.4 13.8 10.3 14.8
SK Telecom (1767 KS) 2 Won 168,500 9.9 6.5 6.3 5.4 8.9 7.0 6.8 5.7
Smartone (315 HK) 2 HK$ 8.50 13.2 11.0 29.2 11.7 43.5 12.2 10.6 11.4
Taiwan Cellular (3045 TT) 3 TND 33.30 16.7 10.7 12.0 11.5 10.0 11.5 10.6 11.0
Telefonica Moviles (TEM SM) 3 Eur 8.77 24.2 13.5 16.1 13.1 n.m. 23.6 19.9 15.8
Vodafone (VOD LN) 3 GBp 120 18.2 12.7 15.4 14.8 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
Note: For P/OFCF, n.m. indicates either negative or over 100
UR; Under Revision due to a change of coverage responsibility

July 2004 25
–––– EBITDA margin (%)––– –––––––– Yield (%) ––––––––
AT&T (T US) 3 US$ 14.96 28.2 25.3 21.6 21.5 4.7 5.3 6.3 6.3
China Telecom (728 HK) 2 HK$ 2.55 46.3 49.4 51.6 52.3 - 2.5 2.5 2.5
Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR) 3 Eur 14.15 30.3 32.9 32.9 34.7 - - 1.7 3.2
France Telecom (FTE FP) 4 Eur 20.45 32.0 37.2 38.0 37.3 - 1.2 4.4 5.4
KPN (KPN NA) 4 Eur 6.26 36.0 40.5 39.7 38.3 - 4.0 3.6 4.3
KT Corp (030200 KS) 2 Won 36,950 37.4 34.3 38.9 40.1 2.0 4.5 8.3 7.3
NTT (9432 JP) 2 Yen 578,000 36.3 35.5 34.3 34.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
PCCW (8 HK) 4 HK$ 5.45 40.4 32.7 32.5 33.9 - - - 1.7
Qwest (Q US) 4 US$ 3.55 27.0 22.8 25.0 28.2 - - - -
SBC (SBC US) 4 US$ 23.54 39.9 35.1 34.1 35.9 4.5 5.8 5.9 6.5
Sprint (FON US) 2 US$ 18.17 27.8 30.2 32.7 35.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
Telstra (TLS AU) 2 A$ 5.00 46.0 47.9 48.6 48.8 4.4 5.4 5.2 6.4
Verizon (VZ US) 2 US$ 35.16 43.3 40.3 40.5 43.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
KDDI (9433 JP) 1 Yen 587,000 20.5 23.1 24.8 25.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8
KT Freetel (3239 KS) 4 Won 20,000 33.1 30.8 33.9 34.1 2.5 3.1 3.9 5.3
M1 (M1 SP) 3 S$ 1.47 40.4 40.0 39.5 40.4 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1
mmO2 (OOM LN) UR GBp 94 17.6 23.2 25.5 27.3 - - - -
Nextel (NXTL US) 1 US$ 25.16 36.3 39.0 41.0 44.0 - - - -
NTT DoCoMo (9437 JP) 2 Yen 184,000 38.4 37.0 35.6 36.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1
SK Telecom (1767 KS) 2 Won 168,500 47.3 48.0 46.2 47.4 1.1 3.4 4.1 4.9
Smartone (315 HK) 2 HK$ 8.50 23.7 26.6 28.9 28.7 0.8 46.7 6.3 5.9
Note: For Yield, - indicates no dividend
UR; Under Revision due to a change of coverage responsibility

–––– Net debt/EBITDA ––––– –––– Net debt/equity (%) –––
AT&T (T US) 3 US$ 14.96 1.36 1.15 1.21 0.76 46 77 58 37
BellSouth (BLS US) 2 US$ 26.00 1.27 0.92 n.m. n.m. 84 56 n.m. n.m.
BT Group (BT/A LN) 3 GBp 191 1.65 1.45 1.37 1.32 n.m. 294 224 199
China Telecom (728 HK) 2 HK$ 2.55 2.48 2.20 1.65 1.39 94 109 94 69
Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT) 3 NT$ 52.50 0.10 n.m. n.m. n.m. 3 n.m. n.m. n.m.
Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR) 3 Eur 14.15 3.76 2.54 2.05 1.39 122 135 105 59
France Telecom (FTE FP) 4 Eur 20.45 4.58 2.66 2.19 1.91 n.m. 388 113 89
KPN (KPN NA) 4 Eur 6.26 2.82 1.71 1.37 1.10 150 144 88 68
KT Corp (030200 KS) 2 Won 36,950 1.71 2.09 1.76 1.60 90 118 146 138
NTT (9432 JP) 2 Yen 578,000 1.36 1.14 0.90 0.65 94 75 51 33
PCCW (8 HK) 4 HK$ 5.45 4.05 3.95 3.26 2.65 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
Portugal Telecom (PTC PL) 3 Eur 8.63 1.85 1.65 1.36 0.82 103 106 100 73
Q w est (Q US) 4 US$ 3.55 4.89 4.85 4.40 3.48 124 n.m. n.m. n.m.
SBC (SBC US) 4 US$ 23.54 1.07 0.92 0.72 0.46 56 37 26 17
Singapore Telecom (ST SP) 3 S$ 2.26 1.90 1.17 0.90 0.50 65 38 29 17
Sprint (FON US) 2 US$ 18.17 2.64 1.93 1.47 1.11 86 76 59 51
Swisscom (SCMN VX) 4 CHF 415.00 0.13 0.09 n.m. n.m. 6 5 n.m. n.m.
Telecom Italia ordinaries (TIT IM) 2 Eur 2.51 2.52 2.43 2.08 1.86 88 100 99 98
Telecom Italia savers (TITR IM) 3 Eur 1.80 2.52 2.43 2.08 1.86 88 100 99 98
Telecom New Zealand (TEL NZ) 2 NZD 5.83 2.32 2.01 1.86 1.75 317 301 230 195
Telefonica (TEF SM) 3 Eur 12.05 2.10 1.89 1.87 1.52 115 126 141 124
TeliaSonera (TLSN SS) 2 SEK 46.70 2.00 0.97 0.76 0.46 n.m. 36 47 44
TeliaSonera (TLSN SS) 4 SEK 31.90 1.50 0.60 0.31 0.06 35 17 7 1
Telstra (TLS AU) 2 A$ 5.00 1.19 0.98 1.00 0.99 43 37 39 40
Verizon (VZ US) 2 US$ 35.16 1.74 1.56 1.40 1.02 155 129 119 90
Weighted average 2.14 1.44 1.24 0.97 98 121 92 72
China Mobile (941 HK) 1 HK$ 21.85 0.2 n.m. n.m. n.m. 12 n.m. n.m. n.m.
China Unicom (762 HK) 3 HK$ 5.90 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.9 53 65 52 38
KDDI (9433 JP) 1 Yen 587,000 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.7 156 108 70 39
KT Freetel (3239 KS) 4 Won 20,000 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 98 86 75 66
M1 (M1 SP) 3 S$ 1.47 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 37 41 38 31
mmO2 (OOM LN) UR GBp 94 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0 7 5 0
Nextel (NXTL US) 1 US$ 25.16 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 n.m. n.m. 75 21
NTT DoCoMo (9437 JP) 2 Yen 184,000 0.4 0.1 n.m. n.m. 20 7 n.m. n.m.
SK Telecom (1767 KS) 2 Won 168,500 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 71 59 29 3
Smartone (315 HK) 2 HK$ 8.50 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
Taiwan Cellular (3045 TT) 3 NT$ 33.30 2.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 84 29 17 2
Telecom Italia (TIM IM) 2 Eur 4.57 0.4 n.m. 0.3 0.1 27 n.m. 24 12
Telefonica Moviles (TEM SM) 3 Eur 8.77 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 131 140 96 42
Vodafone (VOD LN) 3 GBp 120 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 11 7 8 5
Weighted average 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 37 40 35 16


July 2004 27
Share price performance
Share Shares Market
Bloomberg price in issue cap Relative performance Absolute performance (US$)
Company code (14 Jul) (m) (US$m) 1-wk 1-mth 3-mth 12-mth 1-wk 1-mth 3-mth 12-mth
Europe
BT Group plc BT/A LN 1.905 8,670.0 30,656.1 (2.12) 3.05 10.59 (12.39) (2.15) (0.22) 3.64 (19.95)
Cable & Wireless CW/ LN 1.17 2,382.1 5,151.0 (0.96) (6.83) (2.41) (11.67) (0.99) (9.79) (8.54) (19.30)
Deutsche Telekom DTE GR 14.15 4,197.8 73,535.0 (0.52) 0.84 (0.38) (3.96) (1.29) (3.13) (6.12) (0.10)
Equant EQU FP 4.50 282.1 1,571.5 (16.86) (22.74) (39.83) (29.73) (17.10) (24.82) (42.91) (27.18)
France Telecom FTE FP 20.45 2,467.1 62,460.1 (1.27) 1.20 1.48 (15.91) (1.55) (1.52) (3.72) (12.85)
KPN KPN NA 6.26 2,445.3 18,950.8 1.92 6.20 3.21 (1.32) 1.33 2.15 (5.02) (4.35)
KPNQwest KQIP NA 0.09 457.4 50.9 0.62 2.13 (5.33) (44.10) 0.04 (1.76) (12.88) (45.82)
mmO2 OOM LN 0.935 8,670.0 15,046.4 0.75 (0.43) (3.42) 57.35 0.72 (3.59) (9.49) 43.77
Mobistar MOBB BB 53.20 62.7 4,126.7 (1.54) (4.64) (11.61) (19.04) 0.41 5.68 (6.11) 39.65
Portugal Telecom SGPS SA PTC PL 8.63 1254.3 13,400.7 (1.60) (1.16) (2.53) 9.53 0.62 (2.56) (9.10) 23.11
Stet Hellas STHLY US 15.020 83.2 1,009.3 (6.60) (3.61) (23.95) 33.59 (7.17) (5.36) (25.12) 48.42
Swisscom SCMN VX 415.00 66.2 22,346.0 0.36 5.93 2.41 (3.31) 0.17 5.32 3.48 21.91
Tele2 AB TEL2B SS 305.00 125.9 5,169.3 (1.54) (4.64) (11.61) (19.04) (2.27) (3.70) (12.58) 9.36
Telecom Italia Mobile SpA TIM IM 4.573 8,434.0 47,748.1 (0.66) 1.06 (2.02) 0.67 (0.98) (2.26) (7.04) (1.07)
Telecom Italia S.p.A. TIT IM 2.511 10,308.3 32,044.6 (1.48) (1.18) (3.03) (3.81) (1.80) (4.43) (8.00) (5.47)
Telecom Italia- RNC TITR IM 1.802 5,795.9 12,930.0 (1.28) (2.38) (4.00) n.a. (1.60) (5.59) (8.91) n.a.
Telefonica TEF SM 12.05 4,955.9 73,931.5 (0.56) 0.74 (3.17) 4.09 (0.95) (1.03) (9.44) 7.82
Telefonica Moviles TEM SM 8.77 4,330.6 47,017.9 2.53 0.10 1.30 9.38 2.13 (1.65) (5.25) 13.29
TeliaSonera AB TLSN SS 31.90 4,675.2 20,081.7 1.52 0.99 (2.56) (20.26) 0.76 1.99 (3.62) 7.71
Vodafone VOD LN 1.200 66,865.7 148,931.2 0.30 (4.22) (5.61) (5.98) 0.27 (7.26) (11.54) (14.10)
Vodafone Panafon PANF GA 5.500 543.3 3,699.4 0.38 8.36 (2.06) (24.05) 0.04 3.50 (8.21) (18.05)
USA
AT&T T US 14.96 793.9 11,876.8 3.31 (5.83) (18.49) (31.30) 2.68 (7.54) (19.74) (23.67)
AT&T Wireless AWE US 14.30 2,321.4 33,195.5 0.62 1.56 7.58 60.49 0.00 (0.28) 5.93 78.30
Bellsouth BLS US 26.00 1,834.4 47,693.2 0.97 2.48 0.71 (11.99) 0.35 0.62 (0.84) (2.22)
Nextelcommunications NXTL US 25.16 1,074.1 27,025.4 (4.11) 3.58 5.90 16.85 (4.70) 1.70 4.27 29.82
Qwest Communication Q US 3.55 1,784.3 6,334.4 1.19 (0.12) (11.63) (33.84) 0.57 (1.93) (12.99) (26.50)
SBC Communications SBC US 23.54 3,311.9 77,961.6 (0.69) (2.02) (1.86) (14.56) (1.30) (3.80) (3.37) (5.08)
Sprint FON US 18.17 1,333.9 24,237.8 4.35 3.56 (1.89) 7.67 3.71 1.68 (3.40) 19.62
Verizon Communications VZ US 35.16 2,770.3 97,404.2 (1.92) (0.36) (3.64) (14.35) (2.52) (2.17) (5.13) (4.84)
Japan
KDDI 9433 JP 587,000 4.2 22,804 (3.15) (2.58) (2.14) (2.43) (2.31) (2.67) (6.85) 26.59
NTT 9432 JP 578,000 15.7 83,342 2.18 4.20 (0.63) (7.95) 3.25 4.29 (5.25) 19.63
NTT DoCoMo 9437 JP 184,000 50.2 84,576 (5.72) (8.72) (15.90) (47.22) (2.79) (6.78) (18.17) (30.00)
Softbank 9984 JP 4,220 351.4 13,585 (3.83) (11.11) (16.28) 10.58 0.09 (8.37) (17.78) 48.03
Usen 4842 JP 30,150 6.2 1,717 (5.91) 24.33 5.29 223.67 (0.64) 30.03 4.92 339.61
Vodafone Holdings 9434 JP 287,000 3.2 8,400 (1.01) (3.95) 19.68 (39.24) 0.20 (3.71) 14.31 (20.90)
Yahoo! Japan 4689 JP 932,000 3.8 32,205 (6.15) (12.85) (24.27) 49.65 (1.31) (9.23) (24.85) 102.40
Source: Bloomberg

Share price performance (cont’d)
Share Shares Market
Bloomberg price in issue cap Relative performance Absolute performance (US$)
Company code (14 Jul) (m) (US$m) 1 Wk 1-mth 3-mth 12-mth 1 Wk 1-mth 3-mth 12-mth
Hong Kong/China
APT Satellite 1045 HK 1.630 413.3 86.4 (2.10) (8.60) (12.63) (64.75) (3.69) (9.16) (17.10) (55.13)
AsiaSat 1135 HK 13.00 390.3 650.4 1.12 3.31 3.32 (17.65) (0.53) 2.69 (1.96) 4.82
CCT 138 HK 0.91 422.1 49.2 (1.73) (6.28) (31.08) (29.13) (3.33) (6.85) (34.60) (9.80)
China Mobile 941 HK 21.85 19,672.0 55,106.5 (2.93) (1.76) 2.64 (12.72) (4.59) (2.91) (2.03) 2.58
China Telecom 728 HK 2.55 13,877.4 4,536.8 (2.32) (0.05) 5.55 8.23 (3.78) (0.99) 0.97 27.49
China Unicom 762 HK 5.90 12,561.9 9,501.9 (4.22) (1.60) (8.74) (13.64) (4.98) (1.36) (12.67) 10.86
CTI 1137 HK 1.45 610.6 113.5 (2.53) 7.61 (38.14) (55.24) (4.11) 6.95 (41.30) (43.03)
Hutchison Whampoa 13 HK 51.75 4,263.4 28,285.6 (0.42) 1.42 (2.98) (14.70) (2.04) 0.80 (7.94) 8.57
i-Cable 1097 HK 2.70 2,019.2 699.0 (7.24) (10.85) (7.68) (1.12) (7.03) (9.72) (10.74) 28.23
PCCW 8 HK 5.45 5,368.8 3,751.2 1.51 0.93 0.78 (4.50) 0.78 1.24 (3.48) 22.67
SmarTone 315 HK 8.50 584.8 637.2 (0.84) 1.53 3.90 7.37 (1.88) 1.51 (0.82) 37.46
Sunday 866 HK 0.51 2,990.0 195.5 4.58 5.05 13.41 6.90 2.88 4.41 7.62 36.05
Korea
Dacom 015940 KS 4,040 50.4 176.7 0.41 (10.76) (28.37) (62.86) (2.43) (13.48) (43.50) (61.53)
Daum 035720 KS 46,150 15.0 598.9 0.79 (13.05) 24.73 (36.88) (2.06) (15.69) (1.62) (34.62)
Hanaro 033630 KS 2,515 462.1 1,008.1 (3.31) (1.10) 3.12 (17.16) (7.49) (6.44) (19.94) (17.39)
Hanaro (ADR) HANA US 2.25 462.1 1,039.8 (8.71) 1.75 (12.84) (10.13) (11.29) (0.23) (15.29) (10.69)
KT Corp (ADR) KTC US 17.69 569.7 10,078.0 1.33 3.18 (2.95) (6.97) (1.28) 0.51 (5.45) (9.38)
KT Corp (local) 030200 KS 36,950 284.8 9,129.3 2.37 (1.64) 12.35 (19.85) (0.53) (4.63) (11.39) (16.98)
KT Freetel 032390 KS 20,000 186.3 3,232.6 1.63 5.40 27.12 (19.77) (1.24) 2.19 0.27 (16.90)
KT Hitel 036030 KS 4,900 34.5 146.6 0.60 7.10 (16.70) (50.76) (2.25) 3.84 (34.29) (49.00)
LG Telecom 032640 KS 3,280 277.3 788.9 7.06 3.19 16.21 (21.21) 4.03 0.05 (8.34) (18.39)
SK Telecom (ADR) SKM US 18.53 740.5 13,721.3 (3.45) (7.71) (9.47) (6.07) (5.94) (10.09) (11.80) (8.49)
SK Telecom (local) 017670 KS 168,500 82.3 12,025.0 (1.72) (6.95) 6.03 (23.17) (4.51) (9.78) (16.37) (20.42)
Taiwan
Chunghwa Telecom 2412 TT 53.00 9,647.7 15,133.9 (4.80) (2.52) 14.24 0.24 (7.83) (4.51) (6.20) 3.92
Far EasTone 4904 TT 33.10 3,391.9 3,322.9 9.58 10.78 26.37 36.34 5.13 7.54 2.82 40.06
GigaMedia GIGM US 1.00 50.2 50.2 (9.40) (10.46) (22.92) (62.17) (12.28) (12.28) (36.71) (60.78)
Taiwan Cellular 3045 TT 33.30 4,703.6 4,635.8 6.15 9.30 21.06 27.99 2.16 6.43 (1.19) 31.89
Singapore
Keppel T&T KPTT SP 0.82 545.8 262.8 (2.25) (2.61) (4.24) (23.37) (2.11) (0.03) (4.90) (7.47)
MobileOne (Asia) M1 SP 1.47 1,051.8 908.0 (1.87) (5.86) 2.04 (11.49) (1.73) (3.36) 1.34 6.89
Pacific Internet PCNTF US 7.05 13.0 91.9 (6.50) (26.46) (35.88) (29.41) (6.62) (26.56) (35.97) (29.50)
Singapore Telecom ST SP 2.26 17,862.6 23,707.7 1.48 0.65 (1.17) 21.53 1.62 3.33 (1.85) 46.76
Australasia
Telecom NZ TEL AU 5.28 1,937.0 7,401.9 (0.39) 1.34 3.76 2.01 (2.03) (0.63) 9.68 4.86
Telstra TLS AU 5.00 6,182.4 22,372.4 0.52 4.74 3.26 (6.13) (1.53) 2.29 8.72 (3.89)
Malaysia
Digi.com DIGI MK 4.76 750.0 939.5 (0.46) 0.04 11.72 6.88 (1.65) 3.93 9.17 23.32
Telekom Malaysia T MK 10.60 3,349.9 9,344.6 0.26 1.07 7.99 12.35 (0.94) 5.00 5.53 29.63
Thailand
Advanced Info Services ADVANC TB 89.00 2,943.3 6,426.0 (3.13) 3.81 (3.97) 31.20 (3.12) 6.56 (5.90) 58.44
True Corp PCL TRUE TB 6.35 2,994.9 466.5 (0.65) 10.12 (24.51) (33.38) (0.64) 13.04 (26.02) (19.55)
Total Access Comms TAC SP 2.69 474.4 749.5 (2.27) 5.38 5.53 28.08 (4.27) 12.08 (1.82) 69.18
Philippines
Globe Telecom GLO PM 815.00 139.9 2,041.6 (1.24) (5.91) (10.33) (6.05) (2.40) (3.95) (4.66) 11.73
PLDT TEL PM 1,205.00 169.4 3,654.6 (0.87) 8.92 8.91 75.91 (2.43) 10.75 15.33 108.35
Source: Bloomberg

July 2004 29
Corporate earnings
Europe
Revenue Op. profit EBITDA Net profit EPS DPS CAPX
Y/E December (EURm) (%) (EURm) (%) (EURm) (%) (EURm) (%) (EUR) (EUR) (EURm)
France Telecom
FY02 46,630 8.4 4,455 54.8 14,916 21.1 (20,737) n.m. (19.11) 0.00 7,656
FY03 46,121 (1.1) 9,554 114.4 17,303 16.0 3,205 n.m. 1.53 0.25 5,573
FY04F 47,991 4.1 11,160 16.8 18,232 5.4 3,516 9.7 1.39 0.90 5,911
FY05F 49,719 3.6 11,138 (0.2) 18,548 1.7 4,354 23.8 1.72 1.10 6,286
FY06F 50,728 2.0 11,348 1.9 18,708 0.9 4,876 12.0 1.92 1.20 6,235
Deutsche Telekom
FY02 53,689 11.1 829 -53.0 16,314 7.4 (24,587) n.m. (5.86) 0.00 7,589
FY03 55,930 4.2 5,465 559.3 18,324 12.3 1,289 n.m. 0.31 0.00 6,272
FY04F 59,213 5.9 7,632 39.6 19,164 4.6 3,347 159.6 0.80 0.24 7,528
FY05F 60,959 2.9 9,998 31.0 21,167 10.4 6,319 88.8 1.51 0.45 7,295
FY06F 63,908 4.8 11,058 10.6 21,867 3.3 7,766 22.9 1.85 0.65 7,105
KPN
FY02 12,170 (1.6) 1,614 n.m. 4,378 22.0 -9,542 n.m. (3.83) 0.00 1,136
FY03 12,209 0.3 2,400 48.7 4,958 13.2 655 n.m. 1.11 0.25 1,411
FY04F 11,964 (2.0) 2,165 (9.8) 4,745 (4.3) 1,114 70.1 0.45 0.23 1,663
FY05F 12,106 1.2 1,860 (14.1) 4,642 (2.2) 1,091 (2.1) 0.45 0.27 1,830
FY06F 12,018 (0.7) 1,753 (5.7) 4,535 (2.3) 1,096 0.5 0.45 0.36 1,592

Y/E December (CHFm) (%) (CHFm) (%) (CHFm) (%) (CHFm) (%) (CHF) (CHF) (CHFm)
Swisscom
FY02 14,526 2.5 2,408 8.0 4,413 0.1 761 (84.6) 12.18 12.00 1,222
FY03 10,026 (31.0) 2,819 17.1 4,504 2.1 1,723 126.3 23.70 13.00 1,214
FY04F 10,151 1.2 2,787 (1.1) 4,469 (0.8) 2,048 18.9 30.90 17.00 1,209
FY05F 10,063 (0.9) 2,930 5.1 4,612 3.2 2,280 11.3 33.84 19.00 1,263
FY05F 10,089 0.3 3,048 4.0 4,630 0.4 2,469 8.3 37.18 20.00 1,077

Y/E March (GBPm) (%) (GBPm) (%) (GBPm) (%) (GBPm) (%) (GBp) (GBp) (GBPm)
BT Group
FY02 18,447 7.6 2,655 (13.9) 5,748 (0.5) 995 n.m. 8.80 2.00 3,140
FY03 18,727 1.5 2,790 5.1 5,805 1.0 1,226 23.2 14.23 6.50 2,396
FY04 18,512 (1.1) 2,880 3.2 5,816 0.2 1,446 17.9 16.90 8.50 2,673
FY05F 18,657 0.8 2,807 (2.5) 5,810 (0.1) 1,510 4.4 18.00 10.70 2,791
FY06F 19,333 3.6 3,125 11.3 6,069 4.4 1,758 16.4 21.51 13.34 2,934

Portugal Telecom
FY02 5,582 (2.5) 1,267 8.5 2,176 12.1 391 27.4 0.31 0.16 1,124
FY03 5,776 3.5 1,314 3.7 1,954 (10.2) 240 (38.5) 0.19 0.22 652
FY04F 6,063 5.0 1,421 8.1 2,244 14.8 554 130.5 0.49 0.28 707
FY05F 6,455 6.5 1,685 18.6 2,638 17.6 867 56.6 0.77 0.34 624
FY06F 6,738 4.4 1,952 15.8 2,888 9.5 1,176 35.5 1.04 0.52 619
Telefonica
FY02 28,411 (8.5) 4,366 (19.6) 11,724 (8.4) (5,577) n.m. (1.13) 0.25 3,789
FY03 28,400 0.0 4,513 3.4 11,230 (4.2) 2,204 n.m. 0.44 0.40 3,727
FY04F 30,177 6.3 6,231 38.1 12,737 13.4 2,330 5.8 0.48 0.40 3,839
FY05F 32,463 7.6 7,738 24.2 14,414 13.2 3,326 42.7 0.71 0.50 4,280
FY06F 34,206 5.4 8,170 5.6 15,096 4.7 3,803 14.4 0.83 0.50 4,432
Telecom Italia
FY02 31,408 (1.9) 5,989 12.8 13,257 2.4 (773) n.m. (0.09) 0.00 4,842
FY03 30,850 (1.8) 6,789 13.4 13,709 3.4 1,192 n.m. 0.07 0.11 4,894
FY04F 31,087 0.8 7,424 9.4 14,187 3.5 1,516 27.1 0.09 0.14 5,367
FY05F 32,435 4.3 8,087 8.9 15,020 5.9 1,866 23.1 0.12 0.17 5,260
FY06F 33,633 3.7 8,864 9.6 15,736 4.8 2,579 38.2 0.16 0.23 4,944
Note: All the forecasts are as of 14 July 2004, please contact to analyst for the latest.

Corporate earnings (cont’d)
Y/E December (SEKm) (%) (SEKm) (%) (SEKm) (%) (SEKm) (%) (SEK) (SEK) (SEKm)
TeliaSonera
FY02 83,090 n.a. 5,992 n.a. 25,457 n.a. -34,039 n.a. (10.90) 0.40 11,710
FY03 81,772 (1.6) 13,140 119.3 30,690 20.6 7,671 n.m. 1.64 1.00 8,960
FY04F 81,134 (0.8) 13,948 6.1 29,805 (2.9) 8,472 n.m. 1.81 1.18 8,614
FY05F 84,124 3.7 14,337 2.8 30,681 2.9 9,812 15.8 2.10 1.36 9,994
FY06F 87,648 4.2 14,472 0.9 32,541 6.1 11,097 13.1 2.37 1.54 10,551

Y/E December (NOKm) (%) (NOKm) (%) (NOKm) (%) (NOKm) (%) (NOK) (NOK) (NOKm)
Telenor
FY02 48,668 n.a. 3,233 n.a. 13,458 n.a. (4,298) n.a. (2.42) 0.50 10,126
FY03 52,889 8.7 7,705 138.3 18,299 36.0 4,560 n.m. 2.57 1.00 7,004
FY04F 59,016 11.6 8,925 15.8 20,604 12.6 6,522 n.m. 3.70 1.48 7,706
FY05F 61,188 3.7 9,059 1.5 21,151 2.7 5,727 (12.2) 3.29 1.31 8,466
FY06F 63,104 3.1 9,758 7.7 23,018 8.8 6,568 14.7 3.80 1.52 8,626

Y/E March (GBPm) (%) (GBPm) (%) (GBPm) (%) (GBPm) (%) (GBp) (GBp) (GBPm)
Vodafone
FY03 30,375 33.0 (4,799) n.m. 11,217 39.7 (9,819) n.m. (14.41) 1.69 5,388
FY04 33,559 10.5 (5,004) n.m. 12,640 12.7 (9,015) n.m. (13.30) 2.03 4,529
FY05F 34,134 1.7 (5,317) n.m. 12,842 1.6 (9,145) n.m. (14.00) 2.34 5,000
FY06F 35,054 2.7 (5,480) n.m. 13,467 4.9 (8,996) n.m. (13.80) 2.57 5,119
FY07F 36,129 3.1 (5,659) n.m. 13,916 3.3 (8,982) n.m. (13.80) 2.70 5,058
mmO2
FY02 4,276 11.5 (856) n.m. 433 n.m. (850) n.m. (9.80) 0.00 1,240
FY03 4,874 14.0 (8,778) n.m. 859 98.4 (10,148) n.m. (117.00) 0.00 975
FY04F 5,179 6.3 (44) n.m. 1,204 40.2 (100) n.m. (1.15) 0.00 1,295
FY05F 5,618 8.5 (41) n.m. 1,431 18.8 (102) n.m. (1.18) 0.00 1,236
FY06F 6,091 8.4 48 n.m. 1,660 16.0 12 n.m. 0.13 0.00 1,096

Telefonica Moviles
FY02 9,140 8.7 2,332 15.4 3,736 12.1 (3,724) n.m. (0.86) 0.18 919
FY03 10,070 10.2 2,940 26.1 4,463 19.5 1,608 n.m. 0.37 0.18 1,214
FY04F 11,444 13.6 3,168 7.8 4,807 7.7 1,887 17.4 0.44 0.19 1,548
FY05F 12,820 12.0 3,894 22.9 5,710 18.8 2,396 27.0 0.55 0.20 1,371
FY06F 13,808 7.7 4,696 20.6 6,361 11.4 2,967 23.8 0.69 0.21 1,424
Telecom Italia Mobile

FY02 10,867 6.0 3,298 5.2 4,886 5.0 1,105 16.3 0.13 0.23 1,715
FY03 11,782 8.4 3,786 14.8 5,364 9.8 2,342 111.9 0.27 0.26 1,957
FY04F 12,967 10.1 3,935 3.9 5,925 10.5 1,875 (19.9) 0.22 0.26 2,526
FY05F 14,171 9.3 4,559 15.9 6,715 13.3 2,586 37.9 0.30 0.27 2,264
FY06F 15,005 5.9 5,150 13.0 7,286 8.5 3,009 16.4 0.35 0.28 2,093
USA
Y/E December (US$m) (%) (US$m) (%) (US$m) (%) (US$m) (%) (US$) (US$) (US$m)
AT&T
FY02 37,827 (10.4) 4,361 (44.3) 10,686 (20.4) (13,083) n.m. 1.26 0.71 3,878
FY03 34,528 (8.7) 3,656 (16.2) 8,727 (18.3) 1,864 n.m. 2.36 0.80 3,157
FY04F 30,426 (11.9) 1,281 (65.0) 6,557 (24.9) 640 (65.7) 1.02 0.94 1,803
FY05F 30,174 (0.8) 1,434 12.0 6,485 (1.1) 561 (12.2) 0.67 0.94 1,810
FY06F 30,316 0.5 1,241 (13.5) 6,357 (2.0) 457 (18.7) 0.52 0.94 2,122
Bellsouth
FY02 26,334 (11.0) 6,805 (11.8) 11,747 (11.4) 3,704 (13.2) 1.97 0.78 3,785
FY03 26,364 0.1 6,681 (1.8) 11,328 (3.6) 3,614 (2.4) 1.92 0.90 3,029
FY04F 26,908 2.1 7,071 5.9 12,060 6.5 4,052 12.1 2.15 0.96 3,102
FY05F 27,683 2.9 7,407 4.7 12,562 4.2 4,363 7.7 2.31 1.04 3,386
FY06F 28,403 2.6 7,912 6.8 13,092 4.2 4,783 9.6 2.54 1.07 3,523
Note: EPS for US companies are pro-forma basis. Note: All the forecasts are as of 14 July 2004, please contact to analyst for the latest.

July 2004 31
Y/E December (US$m) (%) (US$m) (%) (US$m) (%) (US$m) (%) (US$) (US$) (US$m)
Qwest Communications International
FY02 15,371 (7.0) (18,917) n.a. 4,146 (43.6) (38,468) n.a. (9.40) 0.00 2,764
FY03 14,281 (7.1) (261) n.m. 3,249 (21.6) 1,505 n.m. (0.33) 0.00 2,088
FY04F 14,119 (1.1) 378 n.m. 3,525 8.5 (878) n.m. (0.48) 0.00 2,105
FY05F 14,755 4.5 1,060 180.1 4,168 18.2 (261) n.m. (0.14) 0.00 2,150
FY06F 15,372 4.2 1,576 48.8 4,659 11.8 110 n.m. 0.06 0.00 2,200
SBC Communications
FY02 43,138 (6.0) 8,623 (17.9) 17,201 (12.2) 5,653 (19.3) 2.17 1.07 6,808
FY03 40,885 (5.2) 6,469 (25.0) 14,339 (16.6) 8,505 50.5 1.56 1.37 5,219
FY04F 40,459 (1.0) 5,691 (12.0) 13,814 (3.7) 5,506 (35.3) 1.44 1.39 5,415
FY05F 40,404 (0.1) 6,065 6.6 14,488 4.9 5,455 (0.9 1.65 1.52 5,657
FY06F 41,252 2.1 7,264 19.8 15,850 9.4 6,358 16.5 1.92 1.52 5,775
Verizon Communications
FY02 67,304 0.2 15,004 30.1 29,124 1.0 4,079 945.9 3.04 1.53 13,058
FY03 67,752 0.7 7,494 (50.1) 27,289 (6.3) 3,077 (24.6) 2.62 1.53 11,884
FY04F 71,483 5.5 13,892 85.4 28,945 6.1 6,522 112.0 2.53 1.54 12,789
FY05F 75,275 5.3 18,144 30.6 32,456 12.1 8,662 32.8 3.19 1.54 12,806
FY06F 76,932 2.2 17,990 (0.9) 33,289 2.6 9,051 4.5 3.34 1.54 12,348
Sprint Corporation
FY02 26,679 3.4 2,091 n.m. 7,405 31.0 623 n.m. 0.43 0.49 4,849
FY03 26,197 (1.8) 861 (58.8) 7,917 6.9 1,208 n.m. 0.85 0.49 3,824
FY04F 27,257 4.0 3,899 352.7 8,904 12.5 1,652 36.7 1.14 0.50 3,889
FY05F 27,468 0.8 4,677 20.0 9,789 9.9 2,253 36.4 1.52 0.50 4,300
FY06F 26,878 (2.1) 4,544 (2.8) 9,823 0.4 2,241 (0.5) 1.51 0.50 4,300
Nextel Communications
FY02 8,721 13.4 1,536 n.m. 3,166 66.5 1,660 n.m. 1.72 0.00 1,863
FY03 10,820 24.1 2,522 64.2 4,216 33.2 1,472 (11.3) 1.35 0.00 1,716
FY04F 13,114 21.2 3,577 41.8 5,374 27.5 2,688 82.6 2.36 0.00 2,444
FY05F 13,959 6.4 4,283 19.8 6,146 14.4 3,337 24.1 2.90 0.00 2,400
FY06F 14,096 1.0 4,185 (2.3) 6,138 (0.1) 3,312 (0.7) 2.82 0.00 2,300
Note: EPS for US companies are pro-forma basis.
Japan
Y/E March (¥m) (%) (¥m) (%) (¥m) (%) (¥m) (%) (¥) (¥) (¥m)
NTT
FY01 11,027,753 (3.4) 61,534 (93.2) 2,669,121 (28.6) (834,672) n.m. (52,383) 5,000 2,291,900
FY02 10,923,146 (0.9) 1,363,557 n.m. 3,966,557 48.6 233,358 n.m. 14,647 5,000 1,977,600
FY03 11,095,537 1.6 1,560,321 14.4 3,933,821 (0.8) 643,862 175.9 40,903 5,000 2,013,600
FY04F 10,996,000 (0.9) 1,438,000 (7.8) 3,772,000 (4.1) 776,000 20.5 49,297 6,000 1,998,000
FY05F 10,848,000 (1.3) 1,528,000 6.3 3,774,000 0.1 630,000 (18.8) 40,022 6,000 1,933,000
KDDI
FY01 2,833,799 24.9 102,297 15.2 522,697 5.2 12,979 (3.3) 3,061 1,790 369,300
FY02 2,785,343 (1.7) 140,652 37.5 569,752 9.0 57,358 341.9 13,561 2,095 246,200
FY03 2,846,097 2.2 292,104 107.7 688,004 20.8 117,025 104.0 27,748 3,600 253,300
FY04F 3,002,000 5.5 354,000 21.2 744,000 8.1 195,000 66.6 46,274 4,800 328,000
FY05F 3,056,000 1.8 409,000 15.5 783,000 5.2 233,000 19.5 55,292 4,800 351,000
NTT DoCoMo
FY01 4,659,254 (0.6) 1,000,887 28.8 1,679,987 17.6 (116,191) n.m. (11,577) 1,500 1,032,200
FY02 4,809,088 3.2 1,056,719 5.6 1,844,491 9.8 212,491 n.m. 4,235 500 854,000
FY03 5,048,065 5.0 1,102,918 4.4 1,867,918 1.3 650,007 205.9 13,099 1,500 805,500
FY04F 4,970,000 (1.5) 984,000 (10.8) 1,771,000 (5.2) 869,000 33.7 17,882 2,000 796,000
FY05F 4,921,000 (1.0) 1,042,000 5.9 1,797,000 1.5 605,000 (30.4) 12,449 2,000 756,000

Asia ex-Japan
Y/E December (Rmb m ) (%) (Rmb m) (%) (Rmb m) (%) (Rmb m) (%) (HK$) (HK$) (Rmb m)
China Mobile
FY02 128,561 28.1 49,546 16.3 77,309 28.3 32,601 16.4 1.61 0.32 49,680
FY03 158,604 23.4 53,817 8.6 92,278 19.4 35,556 9.1 1.71 0.36 49,680
FY04F 193,612 22.1 60,503 12.4 109,742 18.9 40,122 12.8 1.92 0.41 58,024
FY05F 211,884 9.4 66,563 10.0 118,032 7.6 44,825 11.7 2.15 0.45 50,155
FY06F 226,675 7.0 75,124 12.9 126,897 7.5 50,793 13.3 2.44 0.51 45,259
China Unicom
FY02 40,577 38.0 7,324 39.1 18,579 37.4 4,566 2.5 0.34 0.09 18,944
FY03 67,636 66.7 8,514 16.3 24,899 34.0 4,217 (7.6) 0.32 n.a. 19,760
FY04F 84,224 24.5 11,504 35.1 30,213 21.3 6,750 60.1 0.51 0.15 20,858
FY05F 89,811 6.6 12,838 11.6 33,273 10.1 7,626 13.0 0.57 0.17 18,307
FY06F 95,182 6.0 11,560 (10.0) 33,220 (0.2) 6,927 (9.2) 0.52 0.15 16,925
China Telecom *
FY02 130,342 9.4 14,544 48.8 60,354 17.1 7,497 n.a. 0.10 0.01 59,865
FY03 141,537 8.6 26,587 82.8 69,878 15.8 15,655 108.8 0.20 0.07 61,587
FY04F 156,784 10.8 36,277 36.4 80,890 15.8 23,130 47.7 0.27 0.07 57,800
FY05F 168,419 7.4 41,466 14.3 88,026 8.8 26,498 14.6 0.31 0.07 56,125
FY06F 174,168 3.4 42,056 1.4 90,178 2.4 26,898 1.5 0.31 0.07 51,675
* Numbers exclude amortised revenue on connection fee. Historic al numbers have been restated to include contributions of the
newly acquired networks.

Y/E December (HK$m) (%) (HK$m) (%) (HK$m) (%) (HK$m) (%) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$m)
PCCW
FY02 20,112 (8.4) 5,288 9.4 8,120 9.8 (7,762) n.m. (1.69) 0.00 1,611
FY03 22,550 12.1 4,483 (15.2) 7,372 (9.2) (6,100) n.m. (1.23) 0.00 1,958
FY04F 25,110 11.4 5,270 17.5 8,163 10.7 2,271 n.m. 0.42 0.00 2,063
FY05F 25,260 0.6 5,569 5.7 8,562 4.9 2,521 11.0 0.47 0.09 2,012
FY06F 25,554 1.2 5,778 3.7 8,881 3.7 3,119 23.7 0.57 0.11 2,012

Y/E June (HK$m) (%) (HK$m) (%) (HK$m) (%) (HK$m) (%) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$m)
SmarTone
FY02 2,401 (3.4) 145 n.m. 568 657.4 115 n.m. 0.20 0.07 250
FY03 2,832 17.9 352 141.7 753 32.6 408 254.1 0.70 3.97 316
FY04F 3,190 12.7 497 41.3 923 22.5 470 15.3 0.81 0.54 750
FY05F 3,341 4.7 473 (4.7) 958 3.8 434 (7.6) 0.74 0.50 500
FY06F 3,475 4.0 426 (9.9) 970 1.3 395 (9.2) 0.67 0.45 500

Y/E March (S$m) (%) (S$m) (%) (S$m) (%) (S$m) (%) (S¢) (S¢) (S$m)
Singapore Telecom
FY03 10,259 39.8 3,743 22.4 5,112 40.7 1,401 (14.1) 7.86 5.50 1,668
FY04 11,994 16.9 4,288 14.6 5,745 12.4 4,485 220.2 25.15 6.40 1,225
FY05F 12,438 3.7 4,385 2.3 6,082 5.9 2,153 (52.0) 13.00 6.81 1,881
FY06F 12,729 2.3 4,336 (1.1) 6,233 2.5 2,201 2.3 13.30 6.92 1,879
FY07F 12,664 (0.5) 4,537 4.6 6,690 7.3 2,760 25.4 16.60 8.20 1,773
* EBITDA include IDA compensation & associate contribution.

Y/E December (S$m) (%) (S$m) (%) (S$m) (%) (S$m) (%) (S¢) (S¢) (S$m)
MobileOne
FY02 699 9.3 173 24.9 271 21.6 128 28.0 12.23 7.33 134
FY03 717 2.6 194 12.0 290 6.9 142 10.3 13.49 9.40 117
FY04F 730 1.8 187 (3.6) 292 0.8 147 3.7 13.99 9.80 176
FY05F 752 3.0 189 1.0 297 1.7 148 0.9 14.11 9.88 157
FY06F 773 2.8 200 5.9 313 5.3 157 6.1 14.97 10.48 137

July 2004 33
Y/E December (Wonbn) (%) (Wonbn) (%) (Wonbn) (%) (Wonbn) (%) (Won) (Won) (Wonbn)
KT Corp
FY02 16,394 2.8 2,338 20.4 6,135 3.1 1,947 74.9 5,998 860 3,232
FY03 16,001 (2.4) 1,740 (25.6) 5,492 (10.5) 830 (57.4) 3,218 2,000 3,162
FY04F 16,299 1.9 2,495 43.4 6,334 15.3 1,145 38.0 4,325 3,648 3,160
FY05F 16,814 3.2 2,858 14.5 6,735 6.3 1,392 21.5 5,189 3,214 2,814
FY06F 17,264 2.7 3,021 5.7 6,949 3.2 1,638 17.7 6,056 3,784 2,899
SK Telecom
FY02 8,635 13.9 2,673 14.8 4,087 2.2 1,511 17.0 17,934 1,800 1,968
FY03 9,520 10.3 3,081 15.3 4,569 11.8 1,943 28.5 22,664 5,500 1,696
FY04F 9,939 4.4 2,935 (4.7) 4,588 0.4 1,936 (0.3) 23,535 6,576 1,700
FY05F 10,693 7.6 3,326 13.3 5,064 10.4 2,285 18.0 27,778 7,762 1,818
FY06F 11,234 5.1 3,571 7.4 5,397 6.6 2,529 10.7 30,744 8,590 1,910
KT Freetel
FY02 5,354 6.7 844 7.1 1,570 11.6 532 22.4 2,891 0 1,125
FY03 5,150 (3.8) 855 1.3 1,704 8.6 472 (11.2) 2,519 500 955
FY04F 5,560 8.0 678 (20.7) 1,714 0.5 381 (19.4) 2,014 611 1,050
FY05F 5,935 6.7 849 25.2 2,013 17.5 488 28.1 2,608 782 1,101
FY06F 6,313 6.4 847 (0.3) 2,155 7.1 444 (9.1) 2,371 1,067 1,178

Y/E December (NT$m) (%) (NT$m) (%) (NT$m) (%) (NT$m) (%) (NT$) (NT$) (NT$m)
Taiwan Cellular Corp
FY02 58,730 (3.1) 16,124 (17.2) 21,450 (11.0) 14,937 (10.8) 3.33 3.33 10,800
FY03 59,876 2.0 16,895 4.8 22,949 7.0 13,344 (10.7) 2.91 2.40 5,823
FY04F 57,449 (4.1) 16,902 0.0 23,725 3.4 14,668 9.9 3.13 2.64 7,800
FY05F 61,364 6.8 17,729 4.9 25,319 6.7 14,205 (3.2) 3.02 2.53 7,993
FY06F 64,375 4.9 19,163 8.1 26,789 5.8 14,596 2.8 3.09 2.60 7,396

Y/E December (NT$bn) (%) (NT$bn) (%) (NT$bn) (%) (NT$bn) (%) (NT$) (NT$) (NT$bn)
Chunghwa Telecom
FY02 179.4 (2.8) 55.7 24.7 96.0 14.9 44.1 17.7 4.57 4.00 43.3
FY03 182.5 1.7 56.0 0.6 97.5 1.6 47.3 7.3 4.90 4.50 32.8
FY04F 180.6 (1.1) 56.1 0.2 98.1 0.6 47.4 0.2 4.91 4.50 23.3
FY05F 182.3 1.0 54.5 (2.8) 97.6 (0.5) 47.0 (0.9) 4.87 4.50 27.0
FY06F 189.9 4.2 57.6 5.6 102.2 4.7 47.7 1.6 4.94 4.54 28.4

Y/E June (A$m) (%) (A$m) (%) (A$m) (%) (A$m) (%) (A$) (A$) (A$m)
Telstra
FY02 20,802 (9.5) 6,297 (11.9) 9,564 (4.5) 3,661 2.8 0.28 0.22 3,491
FY03 21,616 3.9 6,748 7.2 10,195 6.6 3,895 6.4 0.30 0.27 3,261
FY04F 21,627 0.1 6,794 0.7 10,505 3.0 4,252 9.2 0.34 0.26 3,000
FY05F 22,647 4.7 7,054 3.8 11,044 5.1 4,396 3.4 0.35 0.32 3,200
FY06F 23,437 3.5 7,297 3.4 11,491 4.0 4,588 4.4 0.37 0.29 3,296

Y/E December (NZ$m) (%) (NZ$m) (%) (NZ$m) (%) (NZ$m) (%) (NZ$) (NZ$) (NZ$m)
Telecom New Zealand
FY02 5,537 (2.0) 1,450 (9.0) 2,265 (2.2) 670 9.1 0.36 0.20 778
FY03 5,191 (6.2) 1,496 3.2 2,316 2.3 709 5.8 0.38 0.20 600
FY04F 5,257 1.3 1,554 3.9 2,373 2.5 805 13.5 0.42 0.25 600
FY05F 5,364 2.0 1,589 2.3 2,437 2.7 837 4.0 0.43 0.30 770
FY06F 5,488 2.3 1,625 2.3 2,505 2.8 867 3.5 0.44 0.31 800

Earnings revisions
Europe
Date of change: 30 Jun
Revenue (EURm) ––––––––––––
–––––––––––– ––––––––––––– EBITDA (EURm) –––––––––– Net profit (EURm) –––––––––
––––––––––
Y/E Dec Previous Revised % revision Previous Revised % revision Previous Revised % revision
Telefonica Moviles
FY04F 11,407 11,444 0 4,788 4,807 0 1,818 1,887 4
FY05F 12,776 12,820 0 5,698 5,710 0 2,207 2,396 9
FY06F 13,731 13,808 1 6,336 6,361 0 2,873 2,967 3
Reason for revision: The better than expected performance of subscriber additions in Brazil.

Revenue (EURm) ––––––––––––
–––––––––––– ––––––––––––– EBITDA (EURm) –––––––––– Net profit (EURm) –––––––––
––––––––––
Telecom Italia Mobile
FY04F 12,892 12,967 1 5,917 5,925 0 1,876 1,875 0
FY05F 14,074 14,171 1 6,685 6,715 0 2,608 2,586 (1)
FY06F 14,886 15,005 1 7,243 7,286 1 2,991 3,009 1
Reason for revision: The better than expected performance of subscriber additions in Brazil.

Revenue (GBPm) ––––––––––––
–––––––––––– ––––––––––––– EBITDA (GBPm) –––––––––– Net profit (GBPm) –––––––––
––––––––––
Y/E Mar Previous Revised % revision Previous Revised % revision Previous Revised % revision
Vodafone
FY05F 33,370 34,134 2 12,843 12,842 0 (8,678) (9,145) 5
FY06F 34,740 35,054 1 13,557 13,467 (1) (8,498) (8,996) 6
Reason for revision: Forecasts have been revised due to a change in coverage.
US
Date of change: 1 Jul
Revenue (US$m) ––––––––––––
–––––––––––– ––––––––––––– EBITDA (US$m) –––––––––– Net profit (US$m) –––––––––
––––––––––
AT&T
FY05F 30,988 30,426 (2) 7,082 6,557 (7) 974 640 (34)
FY06F 31,048 30,174 (3) 7,180 6,485 (1) 988 561 (43)
FY07F 31,427 30,316 (4) 7,210 6,357 (12) 974 457 (53)
Reason for revision: The company reduced its financial guidance for FY04, due to price competition at business service division.
The company also announced it is not expanding local telephone services.
Japan
Revenue (¥m) ––––––––––––––
–––––––––––––– ––––––––––––––– EBITDA (¥m) –––––––––––– –––––––––––– Net profit (¥m) –––––––––––
NTT
FY04F 11,002,000 10,996,000 0 3,772,000 3,772,000 0 743,000 776,000 4
FY05F 10,856,000 10,848,000 0 3,749,000 3,774,000 1 606,000 630,000 4
Reason for revision: Reflecting the improvement in local services.

Revenue (¥m) ––––––––––––––
–––––––––––––– ––––––––––––––– EBITDA (¥m) –––––––––––– –––––––––––– Net profit (¥m) –––––––––––
NTT DoCoMo
FY04F 4,970,000 4,970,000 0 1,771,400 1,771,000 0 863,000 869,000 1
FY05F 4,921,000 4,921,000 0 1,796,700 1,797,000 0 613,000 605,000 (1)
Reason for revision: Slight adjustment, considering the latest development.

July 2004 35
Asia e x-Japan
Revenue (Rmb m) ––––––––––
–––––––––– ––––––––––– EBITDA (Rmb m) ––––––––– Net profit (Rmb m) ––––––––
–––––––––
China Telecom (HK)
FY04F 154,476 156,784 1 79,411 80,890 2 21,504 23,130 8
FY05F 164,299 168,419 3 85,210 88,026 3 24,111 26,498 10
FY06F 170,052 174,168 2 88,133 90,178 2 25,535 26,898 5
Reason for revision: Our earnings upgrade w as due mainly to upward revisions to both our local fixed line and broadband subscriber
forecast, as well as to our local voice MOU assumptions.

Revenue (Won bn) ––––––––––
–––––––––– EBITDA (Won bn) –––––––––
––––––––––– Net profit (Wonb bn) ––––––––
–––––––––
SKT
FY05F 10,171 9,939 (2) 4,659 4,588 (2) 1,981 1,936 (2)
FY06F 10,911 10,693 (2) 5,150 5,064 (2) 2,337 2,285 (2)
FY07F 11,435 11,234 (2) 5,606 5,397 (4) 2,667 2,529 (5)
Reason for revision: Changes to interconnection rates, revision of operating costs.

Revenue (Won bn) ––––––––––
–––––––––– EBITDA (Won bn) –––––––––
––––––––––– Net profit (Wonb bn) ––––––––
–––––––––
KT Freetel
FY05F 5,345 5,560 4 1,605 1,714 7 319 381 19
FY06F 5,726 5,935 4 1,898 2,013 6 446 488 9
FY07F 6,071 6,313 4 2,062 2,155 5 445 444 0
Reason for revision: Changes to interconnection rates, revision of subscriber and tax assumptions.
Australia
Revenue (A$m) ––––––––––
–––––––––– ––––––––––– EBITDA (A$m) ––––––––– ––––––––– Net profit (A$m) ––––––––
Y/E Jun Previous Revised % revision Previous Revised % revision Previous Revised % revision
Telstra
FY04F 61,090 57,449 (6) 10,457 10,505 0 4,218 4,252 1
FY05F 64,413 61,364 (5) 10,967 11,044 1 4,339 4,396 1
FY06F 68,190 64,375 (6) 11,385 11,491 1 4,509 4,588 2
Reason for revision: Adjusted earnings higher to account for better than expected revenue and earnings performance by Sensis ,
Telstra's directories/advertising business.
Rating revision
Date of 6-month rating
change Previous Revised Reason for revision
Telefonica Moviles 30-Jun 4 3 Better than expected subscriber additions in the Brazilian
market.
Telecom Italia Mobile 30-Jun new 2 Initiated on shares with a 2 rating due to its strong domestic
position and growth prospects in the Brazilian market
Vodafone 30-Jun new 3 Due to change in coverage we have reinitiated on Vodafone

with a 3 rating.
AT&T 1-Jul 5 3 We think downside risk has been reflected in the share
prices. The company has minimum debt payment schedule
for the next two years. We believe current weakness
reflecting credit downgrade is overdone.
KT Freetel 2-Jul 4 3 Overweighting more defensive stocks.


Europe cellular subscribers
France UK Germany Italy Spain Others Western Europe
Subscribers (m)
Jan-02 37.5 45.9 56.4 51.4 29.9 70.3 291.4
Feb-02 38.0 46.1 56.6 51.5 30.1 70.8 293.1
Mar-02 37.3 46.1 54.0 50.5 29.9 70.2 287.9
Apr-02 35.5 46.4 53.8 50.6 30.1 70.1 286.5
May-02 35.7 46.4 54.0 50.7 30.2 70.2 287.3
Jun-02 35.8 46.8 54.3 51.0 30.8 71.0 289.7
Jul- 02 36.0 47.0 54.3 51.0 31.0 71.4 290.8
Aug-02 36.2 47.1 54.5 51.2 31.1 71.9 291.9
Sep-02 36.0 47.4 54.7 51.2 31.6 72.4 293.3
Oct-02 36.1 48.2 55.5 51.9 32.0 72.5 296.3
Nov-02 36.3 48.4 55.8 52.0 32.2 73.1 297.8
Dec-02 36.8 49.5 57.0 52.9 33.2 73.7 303.1
Jan-03 37.1 50.1 57.5 53.7 33.3 74.3 306.0
Feb-03 37.3 50.4 57.3 52.5 33.5 74.3 305.2
Mar-03 37.1 49.7 57.6 52.9 34.0 74.7 306.0
Apr-03 37.2 49.8 57.9 53.4 34.6 74.8 307.7
May-03 37.4 49.8 58.3 53.7 34.8 75.1 309.1
Jun-03 37.5 49.9 58.6 53.9 35.0 75.5 310.3
Jul- 03 39.3 50.3 59.5 53.0 34.8 76.7 313.6
Aug-03 39.8 50.4 59.8 53.1 35.0 77.1 315.2
Sep-03 40.3 50.8 60.1 53.5 35.2 77.6 317.5
Oct-03 40.6 51.2 60.4 54.9 35.8 79.5 322.4
Nov-03 41.1 51.3 60.7 55.0 36.0 80.3 324.5
Dec-03 41.0 53.2 62.2 55.2 37.0 81.2 329.8
Jan-04 41.3 53.4 62.5 55.6 37.2 82.1 332.2
Feb-04 41.5 53.7 62.9 55.7 37.4 82.3 333.5
Mar-04 41.8 53.9 63.3 55.9 37.7 82.7 335.3
Apr-04 41.4 54.9 63.6 56.3 37.9 83.1 337.2
May-04 41.5 55.4 64.4 56.7 38.1 83.7 339.7
Net additions (m)

Jan-02 0.50 0.21 0.51 0.59 0.26 0.53 2.60
Feb(02 0.49 0.17 0.25 0.15 0.18 0.47 1.70
Mar(02 (0.68) 0.04 (2.68) (1.04) (0.21) (0.60) (5.18
Apr(02 (1.78) 0.32 (0.13) 0.13 0.19 (0.10) (1.38)
May(02 0.21 0.03 0.16 0.06 0.18 0.18 0.82
Jun(02 0.09 0.37 0.32 0.31 0.54 0.73 2.36
Jul(02 0.16 0.24 0.00 0.04 0.19 0.47 1.10
Aug(02 0.18 0.10 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.43 1.13
Sep(02 (0.21) 0.26 0.19 0.05 0.51 0.54 1.33
Oct(02 0.14 0.82 0.84 0.73 0.41 0.10 3.04
Nov(02 0.15 0.19 0.34 0.09 0.14 0.56 1.47
Dec(02 0.58 1.11 1.16 0.88 1.03 0.58 5.33
Jan(03 0.23 0.61 0.46 0.82 0.12 0.63 2.87
Feb(03 0.21 0.24 (0.20) (1.18) 0.17 0.02 (0.73)
Mar(03 (0.18) (0.68) 0.36 0.33 0.47 0.44 0.75
Apr(03 0.13 0.07 0.31 0.54 0.61 0.08 1.73
May(03 0.13 0.07 0.34 0.24 0.25 0.32 1.35
Jun(03 0.13 0.06 0.30 0.21 0.15 0.36 1.21
Jul(03 1.77 0.43 0.90 (0.83) (0.14) 1.15 3.28
Aug(03 0.53 0.13 0.32 0.03 0.14 0.49 1.62
Sep(03 0.51 0.39 0.35 0.37 0.22 0.51 2.34
Oct(03 0.34 0.38 0.26 1.43 0.61 1.88 4.90
Nov(03 0.47 0.10 0.32 0.12 0.21 0.81 2.03
Dec(03 0.58 0.44 0.52 0.45 0.62 0.95 3.56
Jan(04 (0.45) 1.73 1.30 0.16 0.56 0.85 4.16
Feb(04 0.27 0.27 0.36 0.03 0.19 0.21 1.32
Mar(04 0.27 0.22 0.34 0.20 0.28 0.43 1.74
Apr(04 (0.44 0.98 0.40 0.41 0.25 0.36 1.96
May(04 0.09 0.46 0.75 0.43 0.11 0.63 2.47
Source: Mobile Communications
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
July 2004 37
Quarterly broadband stats (subscriber ‘000)
UK–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– France –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
ADSL Cable Penetration (%) ADSL Cable Penetration (%)

2001 1Q 49,000 44,916 0.38 96,000 151,109 1.01
2Q 72,000 76,892 0.61 177,000 163,302 1.39
3Q 99,000 132,334 0.95 267,000 169,302 1.78
4Q 136,164 203,222 1.39 420,400 188,522 2.48
2002 1Q 170,250 309,200 1.96 587,472 208,663 3.25
2Q 300,800 452,994 2.98 730,800 233,579 3.93
3Q 404,500 596,773 3.91 882,150 250,053 4.62
4Q 590,100 779,319 5.35 1,415,800 276,000 6.91
2003 1Q 831,200 960,121 6.99 1,778,630 312,707 8.53
2Q 1,071,700 1,093,536 8.45 2,039,171 336,668 9.69
3Q 1,385,700 1,232,010 10.22 2,503,500 361,000 11.69
4Q 1,828,200 1,360,000 12.45 3,023,995 393,854 13.95
2004 1Q 2,288,850 1,487,800 14.74 3,665,010 412,000 16.64
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––Germany––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Italy–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
ADSL Cable Penetration (%) ADSL FTTH Penetration (%)

2001 1Q 1,000,000 24,300 2.84 180,000 10,000 0.90
2Q 1,440,000 27,000 4.07 239,000 14,500 1.20
3Q 2,292,000 31,055 6.44 310,000 22,700 1.57
4Q 2,420,000 39,131 6.81 390,000 48,900 2.07
2002 1Q 2,640,000 45,000 7.10 505,000 76,700 2.75
2Q 2,860,000 49,000 7.74 615,000 104,000 3.40
3Q 2,968,000 49,000 8.31 700,000 131,500 3.93
4Q 3,320,000 53,000 9.57 805,000 176,100 5.20
2003 1Q 3,410,000 61,500 9.83 1,197,150 213,313 6.67
2Q 3,640,000 70,000 10.51 1,529,000 249,035 8.40
3Q 4,002,000 78,000 11.56 1,712,000 290,200 9.46
4Q 4,300,000 87,000 12.43 2,057,000 330,000 11.28
2004 1Q 4,800,000 91,000 13.86 2,250,000 365,000 12.36
Spain–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Switzerland–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
ADSL Cable Penetration (%) ADSL Cable Penetration (%)

2001 1Q 100,000 42,000 1.05 2,492 85,100 2.90
2Q 157,702 54,000 1.56 20,000 106,300 4.18
3Q 223,158 62,000 2.10 30,000 124,800 5.13
4Q 375,816 70,000 3.29 45,000 145,300 6.30
2002 1Q 527,604 115,000 4.74 62,966 168,000 7.65
2Q 661,261 141,000 6.43 101,177 185,000 9.48
3Q 847,769 165,000 7.59 132,617 200,000 11.01
4Q 951,100 195,000 9.49 195,220 247,000 14.60
2003 1Q 1,141,964 390,000 11.14 250,000 290,000 17.83
2Q 1,303,315 440,000 12.68 288,000 318,000 20.01
3Q 1,433,395 465,000 13.81 320,000 345,000 21.95
4Q 1,665,100 494,000 15.70 487,000 370,000 28.29
2004 1Q 1,800,000 525,000 16.91 596,000 400,000 32.88
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Netherlands ––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Sweden––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
ADSL Cable Penetration (%) ADSL Cable/FTTH Penetration (%)

2001 1Q 1,140 260,000 3.80 61,600 132,000 4.98
2Q 1,939 300,000 4.40 93,765 181,900 7.08
3Q 79,000 330,000 5.96 135,850 190,000 8.34
4Q 118,000 350,000 6.82 223,953 227,200 11.54
2002 1Q 151,000 390,000 8.32 304,611 252,200 14.37
2Q 208,000 427,000 11.72 345,200 263,080 15.60
3Q 269,000 460,000 13.69 383,400 269,020 16.63
4Q 333,000 650,000 15.77 436,000 283,300 18.19
2003 1Q 445,000 804,000 17.84 462,250 293,600 18.87
2Q 543,000 850,000 19.89 484,308 304,240 19.45
3Q 643,000 905,000 22.11 505,763 312,060 19.92
4Q 778,000 940,000 24.54 546,100 346,100 21.72
2004 1Q 959,000 970,000 27.55 600,000 380,000 23.84
Source: Daiwa
N.B. FTTH = fibre to the home; Penetration is against numbers of households.
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
Japan monthly data (mobile)
KDDI Group Vodafone HD
NTT DoCoMo au Vodafone Japan total
Vodafone
Total FOMA Total CDMA 2000 1x Total Global Standard Total 3G service
Subscribers (m)
Jan-03 43.0 0.15 13.6 5.31 13.5 0.00 73.9 5.47
Feb-03 43.2 0.19 13.7 5.89 13.6 0.01 74.4 6.09
Mar-03 43.9 0.33 14.0 6.81 14.0 0.03 75.7 7.16
Apr-03 44.1 0.42 14.3 7.51 14.2 0.03 76.3 7.97
May-03 44.2 0.48 14.5 8.03 14.3 0.04 76.7 8.56
Jun-03 44.4 0.53 14.7 8.57 14.4 0.06 77.2 9.16
Jul- 03 44.7 0.66 14.9 9.16 14.5 0.07 77.8 9.88
Aug-03 44.9 0.79 15.1 9.73 14.6 0.08 78.2 10.59
Sep-03 45.0 1.00 15.3 10.20 14.6 0.08 78.6 11.29
Oct-03 45.2 1.34 15.4 10.66 14.6 0.09 78.9 12.09
Nov-03 45.3 1.63 15.7 11.17 14.7 0.09 79.3 12.89
Dec-03 45.4 1.88 16.0 11.76 14.8 0.11 79.8 13.76
Jan-04 45.4 2.01 16.2 12.26 14.8 0.12 80.1 14.40
Feb-04 45.5 2.32 16.5 12.77 14.9 0.13 80.5 15.22
Mar-04 45.9 3.05 17.0 13.51 15.0 0.14 81.5 16.69
Apr-04 46.1 3.58 17.2 14.00 15.0 0.15 82.0 17.72
May-04 46.2 4.01 17.4 14.36 15.0 0.17 82.3 18.55
Jun-04 46.4 4.58 17.6 14.70 15.1 0.20 82.7 19.49
Net new additions (m)

Jan-03 0.16 0.00 0.12 0.64 0.13 0.00 0.39 0.65
Feb-03 0.20 0.04 0.13 0.58 0.16 0.01 0.47 0.62
Mar-03 0.63 0.14 0.33 0.91 0.34 0.02 1.29 1.07
Apr-03 0.21 0.09 0.25 0.71 0.20 0.01 0.66 0.81
May-03 0.12 0.06 0.18 0.52 0.13 0.01 0.41 0.59
Jun-03 0.17 0.06 0.19 0.54 0.14 0.01 0.49 0.61
Jul- 03 0.31 0.12 0.21 0.58 0.07 0.01 0.58 0.72
Aug-03 0.19 0.13 0.20 0.57 0.05 0.01 0.43 0.71
Sep-03 0.18 0.22 0.18 0.48 0.03 0.01 0.37 0.70
Oct-03 0.15 0.33 0.19 0.46 0.03 0.01 0.35 0.80
Nov-03 0.06 0.29 0.24 0.51 0.04 0.00 0.33 0.80
Dec-03 0.11 0.26 0.29 0.59 0.11 0.02 0.51 0.87
Jan-04 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.50 0.06 0.01 0.34 0.64
Feb-04 0.09 0.31 0.27 0.50 0.06 0.01 0.41 0.82
Mar-04 0.41 0.72 0.48 0.74 0.10 0.01 0.98 1.47
Apr-04 0.18 0.53 0.29 0.49 0.02 0.01 0.49 1.03
May-04 0.13 0.43 0.19 0.36 0.02 0.02 0.32 0.82
Jun-04 0.17 0.57 0.16 0.34 0.06 0.03 0.38 0.94
Source: NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, Japan Telecom, Daiwa
Japan broadband subscribers

Subscribers ('000) ADSL CATV FTTH Total
Jan-03 6,119.8 1,992 233.1 8,345
Feb-03 6,589.9 2,028 263.1 8,881
Mar-03 7,023.0 2,069 305.4 9,397
Apr-03 7,477.9 2,135 346.9 9,960
May-03 7,907.4 2,183 398.3 10,489
Jun-03 8,257.1 2,224 458.3 10,939
Jul- 03 8,541.3 2,283 531.3 11,356
Aug-03 8,881.0 2,304 608.0 11,793
Sep-03 9,228.7 2,339 688.5 12,256
Oct-03 9,590.3 2,376 756.2 12,723
Nov-03 9,911.3 2,428 815.4 13,155
Dec-03 10,272.1 2,475 894.3 13,641
Jan-04 10,612.7 2,510 960.9 14,084
Feb-04 10,904.2 2,546 1,042.8 14,493
Mar-04 11,196.8 2,578 1,142.3 14,917
Apr-04 11,515.0 2,623 1,240.9 15,379
May-04 11,819.2 2,661 1,327.8 15,808
Jun-04 12,068.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
July 2004 39
China monthly data
Subscribers (m) CMHK Unicom China Mobile Unicom Group China total
Jan-02 71.6 28.5 35.3 14.5 149.9
Feb-02 73.2 29.7 37.6 15.4 155.9
Mar-02 75.3 30.8 39.3 16.1 161.5
Apr-02 77.0 31.8 41.0 16.8 166.6
May-02 78.9 32.9 42.3 17.3 171.4
Jun-02 80.3 34.1 43.0 18.8 176.2
Jul- 02 107.4 35.4 18.1 19.3 180.3
Aug-02 109.4 36.9 18.6 20.0 184.9
Sep-02 111.4 38.4 19.1 21.5 190.4
Oct-02 113.6 40.1 19.5 22.7 195.8
Nov-02 115.6 41.6 19.9 23.3 200.3
Dec-02 117.7 43.1 20.8 25.1 206.6
Jan-03 119.8 61.7 22.3 8.7 212.4
Feb-03 121.8 63.1 22.7 8.8 216.4
Mar-03 123.8 64.9 23.6 9.2 221.5
Apr-03 125.5 66.6 24.1 9.4 225.7
May-03 127.2 68.1 25.0 9.8 230.1
Jun-03 129.1 69.6 25.7 10.1 234.5
Jul- 03 131.0 71.4 26.7 10.4 239.5
Aug-03 132.9 73.0 27.5 10.6 244.1
Sep-03 135.0 74.9 29.0 11.0 250.0
Oct-03 137.1 77.0 31.6 11.2 256.9
Nov-03 139.3 78.9 34.0 11.3 263.5
Dec-03 141.6 80.8 34.9 11.4 268.7
Jan-04 # 144.1 93.6 37.9 1.1 276.8
Feb-04 147.2 95.4 38.5 1.2 282.3
Mar-04 150.3 97.3 41.5 1.3 290.3
Apr-04 153.3 99.0 42.2 1.3 295.8
May-04 155.9 100.8 42.5 1.3 300.6
Net new additions (m) CMHK Unicom China Mobile (parent) Unicom Group (parent) China total
Jan-02 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 5.1
Feb-02 1.7 1.1 2.3 0.9 6.0
Mar-02 2.1 1.1 1.7 0.7 5.6
Apr-02 1.7 1.0 1.7 0.7 5.1
May-02 1.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 4.7
Jun-02 1.4 1.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
Jul- 02 27.1 1.3 (24.9) 0.5 4.1
Aug-02 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.7 4.5
Sep-02 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.5 5.5
Oct-02 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.3 5.4
Nov-02 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.6 4.5
Dec-02 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.8 6.3
Jan-03 2.1 18.6 1.5 (16.4) 5.8
Feb-03 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 4.0
Mar-03 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 5.1
Apr-03 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 4.2
May-03 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 4.3
Jun-03 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 4.4
Jul- 03 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.3 5.0
Aug-03 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 4.7
Sep-03 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.4 5.9
Oct-03 2.1 2.1 2.6 0.2 7.0
Nov-03 2.2 1.9 2.3 0.1 6.5
Dec-03 2.3 2.0 0.9 0.0 5.2
Jan-04 # 2.5 12.8 3.1 (10.2) 8.1
Feb-04 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 5.5
Mar-04 3.1 1.9 3.0 0.0 8.0
Apr-04 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 5.4
May-04 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 4.8
Source: Companies, Daiwa estimates
# For Unicom, subscribers of the nine newly acquired network have been included since January 1, 2004. The nine networks had a
subscriber base of 10.68m by end-2003.
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
Korea monthly broadband subscriber data
Korea Telecom Hanaro Thrunet Dreamline Dacom Other Total
Subscribers (m)
Jan-02 3.91 2.16 1.34 0.18 0.13 0.30 8.02
Feb-02 3.96 2.27 1.37 0.18 0.13 0.14 8.06
Mar-02 4.08 2.43 1.40 0.18 0.14 0.10 8.32
Apr-02 4.16 2.54 1.31 0.18 0.14 0.15 8.49
May-02 4.25 2.65 1.31 0.18 0.15 0.14 8.68
Jun-02 4.33 2.73 1.30 0.18 0.15 0.10 8.79
Jul- 02 4.39 2.73 1.31 0.18 0.15 0.10 8.86
Aug-02 4.47 2.80 1.32 0.18 0.15 0.34 9.26
Sep-02 4.56 2.85 1.31 0.18 0.15 0.40 9.46
Oct-02 4.67 2.88 1.30 0.18 0.15 0.49 9.67
Nov-02 4.80 2.89 1.31 0.18 0.15 0.51 9.83
Dec-02 4.92 2.87 1.30 0.18 0.77 0.37 10.41
Jan-03 5.05 2.90 1.30 0.18 0.78 0.36 10.57
Feb-03 5.13 2.93 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.38 10.71
Mar-03 5.25 2.97 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.38 10.87
Apr-03 5.30 2.98 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.38 10.92
May-03 5.35 2.97 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.44 11.03
Jun-03 5.39 2.96 1.29 0.18 0.79 0.49 11.10
Jul- 03 5.45 2.97 1.49 0.18 0.79 0.34 11.22
Aug-03 5.49 2.97 1.29 0.18 0.79 0.54 11.25
Sep-03 5.52 2.98 1.31 0.18 0.79 0.54 11.32
Oct-03 5.55 2.73 1.29 0.18 0.79 0.61 11.15
Nov-03 5.58 2.73 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.63 11.20
Dec-03 5.59 2.73 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.60 11.18
Jan-04 5.66 2.73 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.63 11.27
Feb-04 5.71 2.73 1.29 0.18 0.79 0.65 11.35
Mar-04 5.76 2.74 1.29 0.18 0.79 0.67 11.43
Apr-04 5.81 2.77 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.65 11.49
May-04 5.86 2.77 1.30 0.18 0.79 0.69 11.57
Jun-04 5.90 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Jan-02 0.05 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21
Feb-02 0.06 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.00 (0.16) 0.04
Mar-02 0.11 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.01 (0.04) 0.26
Apr-02 0.08 0.12 (0.09) 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17
May-02 0.09 0.11 (0.01) 0.00 0.01 (0.01) 0.19
Jun-02 0.08 0.08 (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 (0.04) 0.11
Jul- 02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) 0.06
Aug-02 0.07 0.07 0.02 (0.00) 0.00 0.24 0.40
Sep-02 0.09 0.05 (0.01) (0.00) 0.00 0.06 0.19
Oct-02 0.11 0.03 (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) 0.09 0.22
Nov-02 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.00 - 0.02 0.15
Dec-02 0.13 (0.02) (0.00) - (0.07) (0.14) 0.58
Jan-03 0.13 0.02 0.00 - 0.01 (0.01) 0.16
Feb-03 0.08 0.04 0.00 - 0.00 0.02 0.14
Mar-03 0.12 0.04 - - - (0.00) 0.16
Apr-03 0.05 0.00 - - - 0.00 0.06
May-03 0.05 (0.01) - - - 0.06 0.10
Jun-03 0.04 (0.01) (0.02) - - 0.05 0.07
Jul- 03 0.06 0.01 0.20 - - (0.15) 0.12
Aug-03 0.04 (0.00) (0.20) - - 0.20 0.04
Sep-03 0.03 0.01 0.02 - - 0.01 0.07
Oct-03 0.03 (0.25) (0.02) - - 0.07 (0.17)
Nov-03 0.02 (0.00) 0.01 - - 0.02 0.05
Dec-03 0.01 (0.00) (0.00) - - (0.03) (0.02)
Jan-04 0.07 (0.00) (0.00) - - 0.02 0.09
Feb-04 0.05 0.01 (0.00) - - 0.02 0.08
Mar-04 0.05 0.01 (0.00) - - 0.02 0.08
Apr-04 0.06 0.03 0.01 - - (0.03) 0.06
May-04 0.04 (0.00) (0.00) - - 0.05 0.08
Jun-04 0.04 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Source: Companies, MIC, National Statistics Office, Daiwa estimates
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
July 2004 41
Korea monthly cellular subscriber data
SK Telecom, STI KT Freetel LG Telecom Korea total
Total 2.5G Total 2.5G Total 2.5G Total 2.5G
Subscribers (m)
Jan-02 15.34 3.84 9.61 1.02 4.29 0.26 29.24 5.13
Feb-02 15.58 4.41 9.77 1.42 4.32 0.41 29.67 6.25
Mar-02 16.00 5.11 9.95 1.93 4.35 0.54 30.31 7.58
Apr-02 16.05 5.54 9.93 2.15 4.29 0.58 30.27 8.28
May-02 16.30 6.13 10.01 2.53 4.26 0.65 30.57 9.30
Jun-02 16.46 6.67 10.13 2.89 4.29 0.76 30.89 10.32
Jul- 02 16.62 7.36 10.08 3.17 4.31 0.94 31.01 11.46
Aug-02 16.79 7.97 10.13 3.55 4.41 1.18 31.33 12.69
Sep-02 17.00 8.51 10.38 4.08 4.71 1.43 32.08 14.02
Oct-02 17.11 8.81 10.49 4.45 4.73 1.58 32.32 14.83
Nov-02 17.15 9.46 10.50 4.86 4.78 1.69 32.43 16.01
Dec-02 17.22 9.94 10.33 4.86 4.79 1.74 32.34 16.54
Jan-03 17.36 10.37 10.28 5.05 4.78 1.80 32.42 17.21
Feb-03 17.50 10.71 10.33 5.36 4.80 1.87 32.63 17.94
Mar-03 17.63 11.17 10.38 5.66 4.86 1.99 32.86 18.82
Apr-03 17.72 11.60 10.43 5.92 4.84 2.06 32.99 19.58
May-03 17.77 12.00 10.47 6.17 4.84 2.13 33.07 20.30
Jun-03 17.86 12.38 10.49 6.40 4.82 2.25 33.17 21.02
Jul- 03 17.90 12.76 10.47 6.59 4.79 2.34 33.16 21.69
Aug-03 17.96 13.17 10.45 6.78 4.75 2.45 33.16 22.41
Sep-03 18.02 13.48 10.45 6.99 4.74 2.53 33.21 22.99
Oct-03 18.08 13.79 10.45 7.18 4.75 2.67 33.28 23.64
Nov-03 18.16 14.07 10.47 7.35 4.81 2.84 33.45 24.27
Dec-03 18.31 14.42 10.44 7.47 4.84 2.93 33.59 24.83
Jan-04 18.30 14.76 10.81 8.03 4.92 3.10 34.03 25.89
Feb-04 18.36 15.11 11.05 8.45 5.06 3.34 34.47 26.90
Mar-04 18.44 15.45 11.29 8.86 5.27 3.61 35.00 27.92
Apr-04 18.50 15.76 11.52 9.25 5.55 3.97 35.56 28.98
May-04 18.60 16.08 11.77 9.67 5.65 4.19 36.03 29.94
Jun-04 18.60 16.21 11.95 10.00 5.70 n.a. 36.24 n.a.

Jan-02 0.16 0.58 0.02 0.27 0.01 0.05 0.19 0.89
Feb-02 0.24 0.57 0.16 0.30 0.04 0.15 0.43 1.01
Mar-02 0.42 0.70 0.18 0.51 0.03 0.13 0.64 1.34
Apr-02 0.05 0.43 (0.03) 0.22 (0.06) 0.04 (0.04) 0.69
May-02 0.24 0.59 0.09 0.37 (0.03) 0.07 0.30 1.03
Jun-02 0.17 0.54 0.12 0.36 0.04 0.11 0.32 1.02
Jul- 02 0.15 0.69 (0.05) 0.28 0.02 0.18 0.12 1.14
Aug-02 0.17 0.62 0.05 0.38 0.09 0.24 0.32 1.23
Sep-02 0.21 0.54 0.25 0.54 0.30 0.25 0.76 1.32
Oct-02 0.11 0.30 0.11 0.37 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.81
Nov-02 0.04 0.65 0.01 0.41 0.05 0.11 0.11 1.18
Dec-02 0.07 0.48 (0.16) - 0.01 0.05 (0.09) 0.53
Jan-03 0.14 0.43 (0.06) 0.19 (0.01) 0.06 0.08 0.67
Feb-03 0.13 0.35 0.06 0.31 0.03 0.07 0.21 0.73
Mar-03 0.13 0.46 0.04 0.30 0.06 0.12 0.23 0.88
Apr-03 0.09 0.43 0.05 0.26 (0.01) 0.07 0.13 0.76
May-03 0.04 0.40 0.04 0.25 (0.01) 0.07 0.07 0.72
Jun-03 0.09 0.38 0.02 0.22 (0.01) 0.08 0.10 0.69
Jul- 03 0.05 0.38 (0.02) 0.20 (0.04) 0.09 (0.01) 0.67
Aug-03 0.05 0.41 (0.02) 0.19 (0.04) 0.12 (0.00) 0.72
Sep-03 0.06 0.31 (0.00) 0.21 (0.01) 0.07 0.05 0.59
Oct-03 0.06 0.31 0.00 0.19 0.01 0.15 0.07 0.65
Nov-03 0.08 0.29 0.02 0.17 0.06 0.17 0.16 0.63
Dec-03 0.15 0.35 (0.03) 0.12 0.02 0.09 0.15 0.56
Jan-04 (0.02) 0.34 0.37 0.56 0.09 0.17 0.43 1.07
Feb-04 0.06 0.35 0.24 0.41 0.14 0.24 0.44 1.01
Mar-04 0.08 0.34 0.24 0.41 0.21 0.27 0.53 1.02
Apr-04 0.06 0.31 0.23 0.40 0.27 0.36 0.56 1.07
May-04 0.11 0.32 0.25 0.42 0.11 n.a. 0.46 0.96
Jun-04 (0.01) 0.13 0.18 0.33 0.04 n.a. 0.21 n.a.
Source: MIC, SK Telecom, KT Freetel, LG Telecom, Daiwa estimates
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
Taiwan cellular subscribers
Chunghwa Taiwan TCC KG
Telecom Cellular Transasia Group Far EasTone Telecom FET+KGT Mobitai Total
Subscribers (‘000)
Jan-02 6,377 5,566 1,053 6,619 3,819 4,468 8,287 605 21,888
Feb-02 6,478 5,546 1,115 6,661 3,914 4,427 8,341 608 22,088
Mar-02 6,537 5,657 1,187 6,843 4,005 4,425 8,430 612 22,423
Apr-02 6,644 5,605 1,249 6,854 4,093 4,390 8,483 623 22,605
May-02 6,777 5,571 1,307 6,878 4,140 4,355 8,495 635 22,785
Jun-02 6,940 5,625 1,375 7,000 4,163 4,256 8,419 651 23,010
Jul- 02 7,058 5,820 1,429 7,249 4,151 4,151 8,302 671 23,280
Aug-02 7,144 5,972 1,513 7,485 4,040 4,183 8,223 689 23,540
Sep-02 7,229 5,974 1,623 7,597 4,200 3,932 8,133 708 23,666
Oct-02 7,294 6,132 1,743 7,875 4,226 3,715 7,942 715 23,825
Nov-02 7,340 6,141 1,805 7,946 4,278 3,512 7,791 722 23,799
Dec-02 7,422 6,240 1,876 8,116 4,341 3,306 7,647 721 23,905
Jan-03 7,510 6,326 1,946 8,272 4,353 3,340 7,693 721 24,197
Feb-03 7,563 6,479 1,994 8,473 4,380 3,343 7,723 721 24,480
Mar-03 7,619 6,626 2,053 8,678 4,384 3,336 7,720 721 24,738
Apr-03 7,676 6,626 2,112 8,738 4,358 3,358 7,716 722 24,851
May-03 7,726 6,633 2,178 8,811 4,344 3,387 7,731 721 24,989
Jun-03 7,765 6,633 2,246 8,879 4,327 3,417 7,744 721 25,109
Jul- 03 7,825 6,635 2,332 8,968 4,305 3,442 7,747 721 25,260
Aug-03 7,877 6,536 2,370 8,907 4,286 3,499 7,786 721 25,290
Sep-03 7,963 6,332 2,381 8,713 4,312 3,566 7,879 721 25,275
Oct-03 8,050 6,106 2,337 8,443 4,326 3,603 7,929 719 25,141
Nov-03 8,147 5,956 2,280 8,235 4,366 3,626 7,992 715 25,089
Dec-03 8,267 5,811 2,200 8,011 4,431 3,670 8,101 710 25,090
Jan-04 8,357 5,803 2,128 7,932 4,476 3,733 8,209 709 25,207
Feb-04 8,365 5,715 2,077 7,792 4,494 3,728 8,222 710 25,089
Mar-04 8,079 5,611 2,004 7,615 4,475 2,758 7,232 709 23,636
Apr-04 8,021 5,570 1,953 7,523 4,480 2,404 6,884 701 23,129
Net additions ('000)

Jan-02 144 (37) 66 30 44 35 79 3 256
Feb-02 101 (19) 62 43 95 (41) 54 3 200
Mar-02 59 110 72 182 92 (2) 89 5 335
Apr-02 108 (52) 63 11 87 (35) 53 10 181
May-02 133 (34) 57 23 47 (35) 12 12 181
Jun-02 162 54 68 123 23 (99) (76) 16 225
Jul- 02 118 195 54 248 (12) (105) (117) 20 269
Aug-02 86 152 84 236 (112) 32 (79) 18 260
Sep-02 85 2 110 112 161 (251) (90) 19 126
Oct-02 65 158 120 278 26 (217) (191) 7 160
Nov-02 46 9 62 71 52 (203) (151) 7 (27)
Dec-02 82 99 71 170 62 (206) (144) (0) 107
Jan-03 89 86 70 157 13 34 47 (0) 292
Feb-03 53 153 48 201 27 2 29 (0) 283
Mar-03 57 147 58 205 4 (7) (3) 0 259
Apr-03 56 0 59 60 (26) 22 (4) 0 113
May-03 50 7 66 73 (14) 29 15 (1) 138
Jun-03 39 - 68 68 (17) 30 13 - 120
Jul- 03 60 2 86 89 (22) 25 3 0 151
Aug-03 52 (99) 38 (61) (18) 57 39 0 30
Sep-03 86 (204) 11 (194) 26 67 93 (0) (15)
Oct-03 87 (226) (44) (270) 14 37 50 (2) (135)
Nov-03 97 (151) (57) (208) 40 23 63 (4) (51)
Dec-03 120 (145) (79) (224) 65 44 109 (5) 0
Jan-04 90 (8) (72) (79) 45 63 108 (1) 117
Feb-04 8 (88) (52) (140) 18 (5) 13 1 (117)
Mar-04 (286) (104) (72) (177) (20) (970) (990) (1) (1,454)
Apr-04 (58) (41) (51) (92) 5 (354) (348) (8) (507)
Source: Ministry of Transport and Communications (MoTC), Daiwa estimates
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
July 2004 43
Singapore cellular subscribers (‘000)
Date Postpaid Prepaid Subs % change Net adds % change
Jan-02 2,207 713 2,920 2 61 (32)
Feb-02 2,224 730 2,954 1 34 (45)
Mar-02 2,232 760 2,992 1 38 11
Apr-02 2,242 764 3,006 0 14 (62)
May-02 2,268 760 3,027 1 21 49
Jun-02 2,250 791 3,041 0 14 (35)
Jul- 02 2,307 779 3,087 2 46 231
Aug-02 2,291 811 3,102 1 16 (66)
Sep-02 2,307 815 3,122 1 20 25
Oct-02 2,330 802 3,132 0 10 (48)
Nov-02 2,362 816 3,178 1 46 355
Dec-02 2,404 841 3,245 2 67 45
Jan-03 2,416 856 3,272 1 27 (59)
Feb-03 2,421 874 3,295 1 23 (16)
Mar-03 2,422 890 3,313 1 18 (24)
Apr-03 2,419 877 3,296 0 (16) n.m.
May-03 2,437 883 3,320 1 23 n.m.
Jun-03 2,440 896 3,336 1 17 (27)
Jul- 03 2,443 914 3,356 1 20 16
Aug-03 2,468 923 3,390 1 34 75
Sep-03 2,475 927 3,402 0 12 (65)
Oct-03 2,474 937 3,411 0 9 (29)
Nov-03 2,481 956 3,437 1 27 213
Dec-03 2,496 981 3,477 1 40 50
Jan-04 2,515 1,007 3,522 1 45 12
Feb-04 2,512 1,029 3,544 1 23 (49)
Mar-04 2,527 1,051 3,578 1 33 46
Apr-04 2,531 1,075 3,606 1 28 (15)
May-04 2,539 1,091 3,630 1 25 (13)
Source: IDA, Daiwa estimates
MONTHLY S TATISTICS
Europe
23 July Telenor Q2 results
26 July TIM board meets to examine preliminary H1 2004 financial results
26 July Vodafone Q1 KPIs
27 July Vodafone AGM
27 July FT H1 results
27 July Telefonica Moviles Q2 results
27 July TI board meets to examine preliminary H1 2004 financial results
28 July Carphone Warehouse AGM and Q1 trading update
28 July Telefonica Q2 results
28 July TeliaSonera Q2 results
29 July BT Group Q1 results
29 July Vivendi Universal Q2 revenues
2 August Tele2 Q2 results
4 August BSkyB full year 2004 results
4 August NTL Q2 results
5 August Elisa Q2 results
5 August TDC Q2 reuslts
5 August Tiscali Q2 financial results approved
9 August KPN Q2 results
12 August DT Q2/H1 results (provisional date)
13 August Swisscom Q2 results
24 August Telekom Austria Q2 results
26 August Cablecom Q2 results
27 August e.Biscom Q2 results
USA
26 July BellSouth 2Q 2004 earnings conference call
27 July Verizon Communications 2Q 2004 earnings conference call
4 August Federal Communications Committee open commission meeting, possibly discuss
provisional UNE-P rule.
Japan
26 July Vodafoe Holdings Q1 KPI
28 July Okinawa Cellular Q1 results
29 July KDDI Q1 results
30 July NTT DoCoMo Q1 results
End-July Number of Internet users as of end-June
5 August NTT Q1 results
6 August Number of mobile phone subscribers for July
Around 10 August Number of DSL users as of end-July
Around 10 August Number of subscribers to broadband services at Usen as of end-July
Around 10 August Number of subscribers to broadband services for Yahoo BB services (operated by Softbank BB)
as of end-July
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
July 2004 45
Asia
22 July Telstra Technology Briefing
29 July SK Telecom – 2Q04 results
30 July LG Telecom – 2Q04 results
3 August KTF 2Q04 results
4 August KT Corp – 2Q04 results
5 August Telecom New Zealand full-year results
5 August Singapore Telecom 1Q05 results
9 August (pending) Advanced Info Service is to announce its 2Q04 results
12 August Telstra full-year results
Mid-August China Mobile (HK) - 1H04 results
18 August Hutchison Telecom Australia interim results
Late-August China Unicom - 1H04 results
Late-August PCCW - 1H04 results
Early-September China Telecom - 1H04 results
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
Equity relationships among global telcos
China Mobile (HK) (China) Connex GSM

TIW (Canada)
(Romania) 55
3.3
75
75 20 Proximus
Swiscom (Swiss) Swisscom Mobile (Belgium) Belgacom (Belgium)
(Swiss) 25
25
77 20 Polkomtel
OPI (Italy) Vodafone (UK) (Poland) Telmex
20 (Mexico)
45
20
23 Verizon Wireless 30
55 (USA) TDC
SFR (France)
96 40 (Denmark)
Verizon Communications Vodafone Holdings 80 9
(USA) (Japan)
Vodafone Cegetel (France)
42
Rogers Communications 45 (Japan)
(Canada)
SBC Communications
51 StarHub 12 BT Group (USA)
(Singapore) (UK)
Rogers Wireless (Canada)
BellSouth
14.5 (USA) 60
34
NTT 15 PLDT
40
AT&T Wireless (USA) (Japan) (Philippine)
Cingular Wireless
(USA)
16 67
NTT DoCoMo 2.2 KPN Mobile 97.8 KPN

Hutchison Telephone (Netherland)
24 (Japan) (Netherland)
49
41 TelecomAsia
France Telecom (France) Orange (France) BITCO (Thailand) Corporation
29
99.8
MobilCom (Germany) TA Orange (Thailand)
50 50
Sprint Corporation (USA) Virgin Mobile USA (USA) Virgin Mobile (UK)
8.2 56
Telefonica (Spain) Portugal Telecom (Portugal) Telecom Italia (Italy) TIM (Italy)
40
TT & TIM (Turkey)
Listed Company Non-listed Company

Integrated
Mobile
Source: Daiwa
July 2004 47
This page has been intentionally left bank.

This page has been intentionally left bank.
July 2004 49
DIR telecom contacts
Global Telecom Strategy James Enck (44 20) 7597 8455 james.enck@dir.co.uk
Analyst Coverage Telephone E-mail
Europe
James Enck Integrated Operators (44 20) 7597 8455 james.enck@dir.co.uk
Jacqueline Millan Integrated Operators (44 20) 7597 8460 jacqueline.millan@dir.co.uk
USA
Kenji Nishimura Integrated/Cellular/Equipment Manufacturers (1 212) 612 6108 nkenji@dira.com
Japan
Shinji Moriyuki Integrated/Cellular (813) 5683 6958 s.moriyuki@rc.dir.co.jp
Jun Hasebe Alternative Operators (813) 5683 5109 j.hasebe@rc.dir.co.jp
Hiroyuki Masuko Equipment Manufacturers (813) 5683 6957 h.masuko@rc.dir.co.jp
Asia (ex-Japan)
Andrew Jobson Regional/Taiwan/Korea (852) 2848 4463 andrew.jobson@dir.com.hk
Jenny Szeto, CFA Hong Kong/China (852) 2848 4465 jenny.szeto@dir.com.hk
Brenda Lee, CFA Singapore (65) 6321 3039 brenda@dir.com.sg
Jerry Yeu Australia (613) 9916 1354 jerry.yeu@daiwasmbc.com.au
Editor Kaoru Uchida (813) 5683 5989 k.uchida@rc.dir.co.jp
DIR main global offices
London 1st Floor, 5 King William Street, Tel: (44 20) 7597 8000 Fax: (44 20) 7597 8654
London EC4N 7AX, United Kingdom
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Tokyo (Head Office) 15-16 Fuyuki, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-8460, Japan Tel: (813) 5620 5100 Fax: (813) 5620 5609
Hong Kong Level 26, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Tel: (852) 2848 4974 Fax: (852) 2845 2190
Hong Kong
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Taipei 106, Taiwan R.O.C.

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& Leicester Plc; Ajinomoto Co, Inc.; Alpha Corp/Japan; Alpha Credit Group, Inc.; Alpha Group Inc.; American General Finance; Anabuki
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Arbeit-Times Co Ltd.; Arc Land Sakamoto Co. Ltd.; Arrk Corp.; Asahi Breweries Ltd.; Asahi Denka Kogyo KK; Asahi Glass Co. Ltd.; Asahi
Intecc Co. Ltd.; Asahi Pretec Corp.;Asahi Security Co. Ltd.; ASB Bank Ltd.; ASIF; As One Corp.; Associant Technology, Inc.; A&T Corp.; AU
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SA; Banco BPI S.A.; Bandai Networks Co. Ltd.; Bandai Visual Co. Ltd.; Bank of Austria Creditanstalt; Bank of Ikeda Ltd./The; Bank of Kyoto
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CAM Global Finance; Caixa Catalunya International Finance; Casio Computer Co. Ltd.; Cassina Ixc. Ltd.; Cawachi Ltd.; CCS Inc.; Central
Japan Railway Co.; Chiba Bank Ltd./The; China Life Insurance Co.;China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd.; China Merchants Holdings; China
Resources Power Holdings Co., China Shipping Container Lines Ltd.; China Southern Airlines ; Chloride Group; Chi Mei Optoelectronics;
Chubu Electric Power Co. Inc.; Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc/The; Chugoku Marine Paints Ltd.; Chunghwa Telecom; Cima Co Ltd.; CIT
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Corp.; Concorde Securities; Connect Technologies Corp.; Continental AG; Conversebank; Corrsys-Datron GmbH; Cosel Co. Ltd.; Cosworth
Tech/LDV/ MSX Int.; Create SD Co. Ltd.; Credit Saison Co. Ltd.; Cross Plus Inc.; Crymson Co. Ltd.; CSK Corp.; Culture Convenience Club Co.
Ltd. Cyber Communications, Inc.; Dah Sing Bank; Dah Sing Financial Holdings Ltd.; Daibiru Corp.; Daidoh Ltd.; Daihatsu Diesel; Dai-Ichi
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Group Inc.; Daiyu Eight Co. Ltd.; Depfa Bank plc.; Depfa Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG; Deutsche Apotheke Aerztebank; Deutsche Bank
Finance; Dexia Credit Local; Diamond City Co. Ltd.; Diamond Lease Co. Ltd.; Dip Corp.; Dorma Holding GmbH & Co.; Dow Chemical
Company; Dydo Drinco, Inc.; Eagle Industry Co. Ltd.; East Japan Railway Co.; Ebara Foods Industry Inc.; EFG Hellas plc; EMTEC Consumer
Media GmbH, Eneserve Corp.;. ES-CON Japan Ltd.; Eurohypo AG.; Excel Co. Ltd.; Exedy Corp.; Exel; Finconsumo SPA; First Financial
Holding Co., Ltd.; First Juken Co. Ltd.; Flying Garden Co. Ltd.; Ford Credit Australia Limited; Ford Motor Company; Ford Motor Credit
Company; Freddie Mac; Fuji Co. Ltd.; Fuji Corp. Ltd.; Fuji Electric Co Ltd.; Fuji Logistics Co Ltd.; Fuji Photo Film Co. Ltd.; Fujipream Corp.; Fuji
Television Network Inc.; Fujimori Kogyo Co. Ltd.; Fujitsu Ltd.; FuKoKu Co. Ltd.; Funai Electric Co. Ltd.; Gambro, GECC; GE Capital Australia
Funding; General Packer Co. Ltd.; Gentosha; GK Japan Agency Co. Ltd.; Global One Real Estate Inverstment Corp.; GM; GMAC; Goldman
Sachs Group, Inc.; Golf Digest Online Inc.; Haba Laboratories, Inc.; Hamakyorex Inc.; Hana Bank; Hankook Tire Co. Ltd.; Hankyu Corp.;
Disclaimer (cont’d)
Harakosan Co. Ltd.; HBOS Treasury Service; HCA Inc.; Heiwado Co. Ltd.; Heiwa Real Estate Co. Ltd.; Hellenic Bank; Henkel; Hephaist
Seiko Co. Ltd.; Hertz Corp.; Hiday Hidaka Corp.; Higashinihon Gas Corp.; Hikari Tsushin, Inc.; H Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. Ltd.;
Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Inc.; Hokuriku Electric Power Co.; Honeys Co. Ltd.; Hoosiers Corp.; Hopewell Highway Infrastructure Ltd.;
Hoshiden; Hosiden Corp.; HSH N Finance; HSH Nordbank AG; Hutchison Telecom; Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.; Hyundai Motor Co.; Ibiden
Co Ltd.; Icom, Inc.; IKB Finance BV; IK Co. Ltd.; Impexbank; Index Corp.; Industrial Bank of Korea; INPEX Corp.; International Business
Machine Corp; International Hotel Group; Internix, Inc.; Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.; Itochu Europe; Ito En Ltd.; Ito-
Yokado Co. Ltd.; Izumiya Co Ltd.; JFE Holdings Inc.; Jaccs Co. Ltd.; Japan Airalines Co. Ltd.; Japan Automobile Auction Inc.; Japan Aviation
Electronics Industry Ltd.; Japan Longlife Co. Ltd.; Japan National Oil Corp.; Japan Petroleum Exploration Co.; Japan Prime Realty Investment
Corp.; Japan Pulp & Paper Co. Ltd.; Japan Real Estate Investement Corp.; Japan Retail Fund Investment; Japan Tobacco Inc.; Japan Wind
Development Co. Ltd.; JSAT Corp.; JSR Corp.; Kadokawa Holdings Inc.; Kagawa Bank Ltd/The; Kajima Corp.; Kakaku.com, Inc.; Kanebo;
Kanemi Co. Ltd.; Kansai Electric Power Co.; Kansai Electric Power Co. Inc./ The; Karula Co. Ltd.; Kappa Create Co. Ltd.; Katokichi Co. Ltd.;
Kato Sangyo Co. Ltd.; Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd.; KBC IFIMA NV; Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd.; Kenko.com, Inc.; Keyence Corp.;
KGaA; Kia Motors Corp.; Kinki Nippon Railw ay Co. Ltd.; Kintetsu World Express Inc.; Kiriu Corp.; Kobe Steel Ltd.; Kohsoku Corp.; Komatsu
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Mikikogyo Co. Ltd.; Mikuni, Millennium America; Mitachi Co. Ltd.; Mitsubishi Chemical Corp.; Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaish; Mitsubishi Tokyo
Financial Group Inc.; Mitsui & Associates Telepark Corp.; .Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co Ltd.; Mitsui-Soko Co. Ltd.; Miyachi Technos Corp.;
Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co. Ltd.; MOC Corporation; Modec, Inc.; Mori Trust Sogo Reit, Inc.; MP Technologies Inc.; MTR Corporation Ltd.;
Musashino Bank Ltd/The; Nafco Co. Ltd.; Nagaileben Co. Ltd.; Nagoya Railroad Co. Ltd.; Nankai Electric Railway Co. Ltd.; Nan Ya Plastics
Ltd.; Nanya Technology Corporation; National Bank of Canada; National Grid Co. Plc.; National Rural Utilities Cooperation Finance Corp.;
Nationwide Building Society; NEC; NEC Corp.; NEC Electronics Corp.; NEC Mobiling Ltd.; NEC System Technologies Ltd.; Nestle Australia
Limited; Netprice Ltd.; NextCom KK; NGK Spark Plug Co. Ltd,; Nichirei Corp.; Nidec Copal Corp.; Nidec Tosok Corp.; NIF Ventures Ltd.:
Nippon Building Fund, Inc.; Nippon Care Supply Co Ltd.; Nippon Electric Glass Co. Ltd Nippon Primex Inc.; Nippon Residential Investment
Corp.; Nippon Restaurant Corp.; Nippon Restaurant System, Inc.; Nippon Sanso Corp.; Nippon Sheet Glass Co. Ltd.; Nippon Unipac Holding;
Nishimatsuya Chain Co Ltd.; Nishi-Nippon Railroad Co. Ltd.; Nissen Co. Ltd.; Nissho Iwai Corp.; Nitori Co. Ltd.; Nittyu Co. Ltd.; Noda Corp.;
NOK Corp.; Nomura Real Estate Office Fund, Inc.; Noritsu Koki Co. Ltd.; Noritz Corp; Northern Rock Plc.; NTT Data Corp.; Obara Corp.;
Obayashi Corp.; Oenon Holdings, Inc.; Orix JREIT, Inc.; Odakyu Electric Railway Co. Ltd.; Ohashi Technica, Inc.; OIE Sangyo Co. Ltd.; OJI
Paper Co. Ltd.; Okamoto Glass Co. Ltd.; Okinawa Electric Power; Okuwa Co. Ltd.;Onco Therapy Science Inc. Onoken Co. Ltd.; ORIX Corp.;
Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd.; Overnight Corporation; OX Information; Pal Co. Ltd.; Paltac Corp.; Parco Co. Ltd.; Pasona, Inc.;
Pasona Tech Inc.; Peoples Insurance Company of China; Pharmarise Corp.; PHH Corp.;; Pia Corp.; Ping An Insurance Co. ; Pioneer Corp.;
Pla Matels Corp.; Planet Inc.; Pochet SA; Point, Inc.; POSCO; Postabank rt; Precision System Science Co. Ltd.; Premier Investment Co.;
QP Corp.; Quin Land Co. Ltd.; Rabobank Nederland; Rakuten Inc. Rann International; Raytex Corp.; Reins International Inc.; Renaissance
Inc.; Renault S.A.; Rengo Co. Ltd.; Renown; Rentokil Initial; Resorttrust Inc.; Rinnai Corp.; Risa Partners Inc.; Roland DG Corp.; Royal Bank
of Scotland; Saibu Gas Co. Ltd.; Sakata INX Corp.; San-A Co. Ltd.; Sanken Electric Co. Ltd.; Sanyo Electric Credit Co. Ltd.; Sapporo
Breweries Ltd.; Sapporo Drug Store Co. Ltd.; S&B Foods, Inc.; Sato Corp.; Satori Electric Co. Ltd.; Sawai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd.; Securicor
plc.; Segami Medics Co. Ltd.; Seiren Co. Ltd.; Septeni Co.; Sharp Corp.; Shikoku Electric Power Co. Inc.; Shimadzu Corp.; Shimojima Co.
Ltd.; Shingakukai Co. Ltd.; Shinohara System of Construction Co. Ltd.; Shin Nippon Biomedical Laboratories Ltd.; Shinsei Bank; Shiseido
Co. Ltd.; Shochiku Co. Ltd.; Showa Highpolymer Co. Ltd.; Showa Shell Sekiyu KK; Showa Shinku Co. Ltd.; Shuei Yobiko Co. Ltd.; Siemens
AG; Silex Technology, Inc.; Silicon Sensor International AG; Sinocom Software Group Limited; Site Support Institute Co. Ltd.; SK-Electronics,
Ltd.; SKI Corp.; Skylark Co.; Softbank Investment Corporation; Sogo Clinical Pharmacology Co. Ltd.; Sohken Homes Co. Ltd.; Soken
Chemical & Engineering Co. Ltd.; Soiken Inc.; Sparebanken Rogaland; Spectris; SPK Corp.; Stanley Electric Co. Ltd.; STB Leasing Co. Ltd.;
St. Marc Co. Ltd.; Strawberry Corp.; Studio Alice Co. Ltd.; Sumitomo Chemical Co. Ltd.; Sumitomo Corp.; Sumitomo Light Metal Industries Ltd.;
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.; Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co. Ltd.; Sumitomo Realty & Development Co. Ltd.; Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co
Ltd/The; Sumitomo Wiring Systems Ltd.; Sunx Ltd.; Suzuken Co. Ltd.; Ltd.; SVOX AG; Sysmex Corp.; Tac Co. Ltd.; Taisei Corp.; Taiyo Life
Insurance Company; Taiyo Tuden Co. Ltd.; Takachiho Electric Co. Ltd.; Takara Leben Co. Ltd.; Takeuchi Manufacturing Co. Ltd.; Tamron Co.
Ltd.; TCL International Holdings; Techno Medica Co. Ltd.; Telstra; T Hasegawa Co. Ltd..; Tietech Co. Ltd.; TK Corp.; Tobu Railway Co. Ltd.;
Tocalo Co. Ltd.; Toho Gas Co. Ltd.; Tohoku Electric Power Co. Inc.; Tokai Rika Co. Ltd.; Token Corp.; Tokyo Electric Power Co.; Tokyo Gas
Co. Ltd.; Tokyo Tatemono Co. Ltd.; Tokyu Corp.; Tokyu REIT, Inc.; Tokyu Store Chain; Tomen Devices Corp.; Tomy Co. Ltd.; Toppan
Printing Co. Ltd.; Toray Industries Inc.; Toray Medical; Tosei Corp.; Toshiba Corp.; Tosho Co. Ltd.; Total Capital SA; Touei Housing Corp.;
Toya Ink Manufacturing Co. Ltd.; Toyoda Gosei Co Ltd.; Toyoda Machine Works Ltd.; Toyo Radiator Co. Ltd.; Toyota Credit Canada, Inc.;
Toyota Finance Australia Ltd.; Toyota Motor Corp.; Toyota Motor Credit Corporation; Toyo Tire & Rubber Co Ltd.; Trusco Nakayama Corp.;
Tsukui Corp.; TT Electronics; UFJ Central Leasing Co. Ltd.; UFJ Holdings Inc.; Ulvac Inc.; Union Oil Co. of California; Union Pacific Corp.;
United Microelectronics Corporation; United Urban Investement Corp.; Up Garage Co. Ltd.; US Cellular Corp.; Valic Co. Ltd.; Valor Co. Ltd.;
USC Corp.; US Cellular Corp.; Usen Corp.; VeriServe Corp.; VeriSign Japan KK; Verizon Global Funding Corp.; Viacom Inc.; Village Vanguard
Co. Ltd.; Volkswagen Financial Services AG; Volkswagen International Finance NV; VT Holdings Co.; Wacom Co Ltd./Japan; Warabeya
Nichiyo Co. Ltd.; Watts Co. Ltd.; Webzen Inc.; West Co Ltd.; West Japan Railway Co. ; Westpac Banking Corporation; Wintest Corp.;
Wolstenholme International Ltd.; Woori Financial Holdings Co. Ltd.; World Co. Ltd.; Yamazawa Co Ltd.; Y’s table Corp.; Yusen Air & Sea
Service Co. Ltd.; Ziphyr Co. Ltd.
The statements in the two preceding paragraphs are made as of July 1, 2004.
DSA Market Making. DSA made a market in securities or ADRs of the following issuers at the time this report was published: Mitsui & Co.;
NEC; Millea Holdings; Trend Micro; Crayfish; Makita; Internet Initiative Japan; Fuji Photo Film; Kirin Brewery; Nissan Motor; Sanyo Electric; CSK
Corp.; Daiei Inc.; Wacoal Corp.; All Nippon Airways; Bandai; Bridgestone; Casio; Fujitsu; Isuzu; Sega; Sharp; Shiseido; Q.P. Corp.; and
Sumitomo Corporation.
Research Analyst Conflicts. The principal research analysts who prepared this report have no financial interest in securities of the issuers
covered in the report, are not aware of any material relevant conflict of interest involving them or DSA, except as noted: no exceptions.
Research Certification. The views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers expressed in this Research Report accurately
reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for this report (or the views of the firm producing the report if no
individual analysts(s) is named on the report); and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) (or no part of the compensation of the firm
if no individual analyst(s) is named on the report) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this Research Report.
The following explains the rating system in the report as compared to relevant local indices, based on the beliefs of the author of the report.
"1": the security could outperform the local index by more than 15% over the next six months.
"2": the security is expected to outperform the local index by 5-15% over the next six months.
"3": the security is expected to perform within 5% of the local index (better or worse) over the next six months.
"4": the security is expected to underperform the local index by 5-15% over the next six months.
"5": the security could underperform the local index by more than 15% over the next six months.
Additional information may be available upon request.

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DAIWA

DAIWA INSTITUTE OF RESEARCH LTD.

July 2004 (No. of pages: 52)

Global Telecom Monthly

• Europe – BT and Yahoo! announce Communicator launch/EC reportedly to

• US – Sprint cuts jobs, reiterates guidance/Cablevision launches aggressively

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS,

Global Equity Research

Regional/subsector investment stance summary

A round-up of global telecoms events over the past month P. 13

Statistics and valuations

Equity relationships among global telcos P. 47

US Wireless OVERWEIGHT 1.00 Nextel Consolidation is driving the sector at the

Key regional sector indices, relative to local/regional broad market

MSCI World Telecoms

S&P ASX 300 Telecoms

Hang Seng Commerce & Industry

S&P 500 Wireless

S&P 500 Integrated

(20)% (10)% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Source: Daiwa estimates

Portfolio best and worst, one month ($US)

Robert Zielinski’ s Evolution of Analysts

Recipients of the Muniwireless weekly email newsletter, by category

Annex: Analysts, who needs ‘em?

Source: Daiwa estimates, from JCFQuant data

Good times, bad times – Brokers’ history of getting it right

Epilogue: Knowledge is power

Pan-European ISP Tiscali is being sued in a Belgian court by SABAM, a Belgian

Cablevision announced it is introducing a ‘Triple Play’ package deal, in which the

Sprint Corporation on June 22 announced it will invest in CDMA 1x EV-DO

AT&T announced on June 23 that it will stop accepting new customers in 7 of 46

UK 44.9 49.9 51.3 53.7 54.9 56.1 57.3

France 37.0 38.6 41.7 44.5 46.1 47.3 47.7

Germany 54.2 57.0 62.2 66.4 68.1 69.7 70.5

Italy 49.9 52.9 55.2 56.3 56.5 56.8 57.4

Spain 28.8 33.2 37.0 38.3 39.1 39.5 39.9

Asia (ex-Japan) (m)

Hong Kong 5.7 6.2 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0

Singapore 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2

Korea 29.0 32.4 33.6 36.8 38.2 38.9 39.8

Taiwan 21.6 23.9 25.1 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.2

Australia 12.0 13.5 15.2 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.3

New Zealand 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

Asia (ex-Japan) (%)

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

Asia (ex-Japan) (US$)

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

Germany 2.46 3.37 4.39 6.00 6.60 7.40 8.00

France 0.61 1.69 3.42 5.00 5.60 6.00 6.30

Netherlands 0.47 1.12 1.72 2.40 2.80 3.10 3.20

Asia (ex-Japan) (m)

Hong Kong 0.62 0.99 1.23 1.47 1.71 1.93 2.14

Singapore 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.52 0.62 0.71 0.77

Korea 7.8 10.4 11.2 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.1

Taiwan 1.13 2.10 3.00 3.90 5.05 6.30 7.55

Australia 0.22 0.41 0.69 1.08 1.58 2.19 2.90

New Zealand 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.23 0.30 0.37 0.46

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS

STATISTICS & VALUATIONS