THE REAL DEALS

Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

Race to the top
In 2007, before the property market peaked, Farrer Court was sold for $1.3b and Leedon Heights, $840m.
The former became the first en bloc deal in Singapore to cross the $1b mark, making it the largest, while
the latter was the second largest. As the collective sale market revives and tries to outdo itself, two eye-
catching deals have appeared. They are Pine Grove in Ulu Pandan and Pearlbank Apartments in Outram. In
terms of value, Pine Grove is at the top with owners asking for a record $1.7b, excluding the development
premium that will be needed to top up the site’s lease to 99 years. As a comparison, this amount is
equivalent to the total sales value of last year’s 34 en bloc deals put together. Pearlbank Apartments, on
the other hand, has a reserve price of $750m, or $1,495psf including an estimated development charge of
$167.2m.

Pine Grove sits on 893,000 sq ft of land and has a gross plot ratio of 2.1. If the deal eventuates, it will cost
the developer a cool $2.2b, or $907 psf ppr. We estimate the breakeven to be around $1,630 psf, 5%
above the average prices achieved in 1Q11 by The Trizon, a freehold project by UIC that is currently being
built. The Trizon was launched in 2009 and still has 77 units unsold. To justify the deal, the Pine Grove’s
developer may have to sell at close to $1,900 psf, which will be a new benchmark for the area. The closest
comparable, the 99-year Quinterra, that was completed in 2009, saw a unit transacted at $1,175 psf last
month. Supply-wise, there are about 3,300 units in the immediate vicinity. We take a look at their prices.

LPine Grove and neighbours in Ulu Pandan

Pandan Valley
Latest: $950 psf

Quinterra (99-yr)
Latest: $1,175 psf
Pine Grove (99-yr)
Latest: $1,021 psf
Ridgewood (999-yr)
Latest: $1,358 psf

Cavendish Park (99-yr) The Trizon

Latest: $990 psf Latest: $1,778 psf

The Marbella
Latest: $1,548 psf
Note: Projects are freehold unless otherwise stated. Source: www.onemap.sg, URA

Co. Reg No: 198700034E SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
MICA (P) : 090/11/2009
 The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011
PINE GROVE Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Primary market prices of residential projects near Pine Grove

Source: URA

Prices and take-up rates based on developers’ sales data

Source: URA

Units Units
sold in Lowest Highest Median sold in Lowest Highest Median
Date month (psf) (psf) (psf) Date month (psf) (psf) (psf)
Feb-11 2 $1,680 $1,853 $1,767 Apr-10 17 $957 $1,578 $1,394
Jan-11 1 $1,636 $1,636 $1,636 Mar-10 5 $1,310 $1,590 $1,478
Dec-10 4 $1,496 $1,582 $1,531 Feb-10 4 $1,350 $1,460 $1,419
Nov-10 6 $1,492 $1,675 $1,586 Jan-10 6 $1,280 $1,530 $1,423
Oct-10 1 $1,546 $1,546 $1,546 Dec-09 0 $0 $0 $0
Sep-10 2 $1,511 $1,627 $1,569 Nov-09 4 $1,394 $1,520 $1,440
Aug-10 10 $1,106 $1,547 $1,367 Oct-09 3 $1,352 $1,523 $1,396
Jul-10 15 $1,356 $1,608 $1,487 Sep-09 25 $932 $1,500 $1,362
Jun-10 5 $1,436 $1,605 $1,475 Aug-09 99 $920 $1,570 $1,367
May-10 3 $1,332 $1,393 $1,383
Source: URA

Primary market prices have been dominated by The Trizon, the only recent development in the
area. The freehold, 24-storey project by UIC was first launched in September 2009. It comprises 289
units with the smallest apartments, two-bedders of about 1,000 sq ft in size, selling at $1.3-1.6m
each. There are also 11 duplex penthouses. A penthouse unit that is over 7,000 sq ft was sold for
$6.6m in September 2009. The highest price achieved thus far is $1,853 psf, according to sales data
submitted by the developer to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

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 The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011
PINE GROVE Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Secondary market prices of residential projects near Pine Grove in the past 12 months

Source: URA

No. of Lowest Average Highest

TOP Project Units Tenure transactions (psf) (psf) (psf)
1978 Pandan Valley 605 Freehold 31 $659 $901 $1,108
1981 Ridgewood 425 999-yr from 1885 10 $864 $1,154 $1,358
1983 Village Tower 46 Freehold 1 $1,189 $1,189 $1,189
1984 Beaverton Court 54 Freehold 3 $846 $1,136 $1,345
1984 Pine Grove 660 99-yr from 1984 22 $715 $826 $1,021
1985 Fontana Heights 52 Freehold 1 $1,417 $1,417 $1,417
1985 Leighwoods 23 Freehold 1 $1,082 $1,082 $1,082
1995 Astor Green 170 99-yr from 1991 19 $840 $919 $1,034
1996 Cavendish Park 254 99-yr from 1991 34 $864 $947 $1,059
1998 The Sierra 60 947-yr from 1937 6 $1,072 $1,136 $1,229
2004 The Serenade @ Holland 89 99-yr from 2001 15 $844 $1,031 $1,102
2005 The Marbella 239 Freehold 9 $1,085 $1,346 $1,548
2008 Montview 115 Freehold 8 $1,261 $1,336 $1,440
2009 Quinterra 55 99-yr from 2006 2 $1,175 $1,175 $1,175
2013^ The Trizon 289 Freehold 2 $1,219 $1,225 $1,230
Overall 3,316 172 $659 $1,017 $1,548
^Expected TOP. Source: URA

In the surrounding area, freehold units are available. Pandan Valley makes up a large proportion of
the freehold supply with over 600 units. The project has been around for over 30 years. There has
been talk in the market that Pandan Valley is likely to be the next en bloc candidate in Ulu Pandan.
This year, the project saw 5 transactions so far, average at $1,000psf.

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 The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011
MARKET SNAPSHOT Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Upcoming VVIP Launches Property Price Indices

TwentyOne Angullia Park (District 9) Index Level Change
A 54-unit freehold development to be SRPI Overall (Feb 11) 159.5 -0.4%
RESI Composite (4Q10) 5.7 +0.9
developed by China Sonangol Land on the site
URA PPI (1Q11) 198.8 +2.1%
of what was previously The Parisian.
HDB Resale (1Q11) 174.8 +1.6%
*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are
probably not a VVIP. Wait for the public launch. Government Land Sales (GLS)
Recently Awarded Sites
ASP of freehold units in Ulu Pandan Bishan Street 14 (58.8k sqm, 650 units) Awarded
Lowest Average Highest
to CapitaLand for $550.1m ($869 psf ppr)
Period ($psf) ($psf) ($psf)
Bedok Reservoir / Bedok North Road (63.9k sqm,
Mar-11 $1,216 $1,497 $1,778
Feb-11 $950 $1,331 $1,636
640 units) Awarded to UOL and SingLand for
Jan-11 $911 $1,227 $1,581 $320m ($465.4 psf ppr)
Dec-10 $680 $1,258 $1,675 Sengkang Square / Compassvale Road (47.8k
Nov-10 $973 $1,300 $1,492 sqm, 530 units) Awarded to Keppel Land for
Oct-10 $717 $1,140 $1,627 $286.8m ($501.7 psf ppr)
Sep-10 $1,409 $1,412 $1,414 Choa Chu Kang Dr, EC (44.3k sqm, 490 units)
Aug-10 $659 $1,360 $1,608 Top bid of $170.1m ($320.9 psf ppr) from CDL
-Jul-10 $891 $1,261 $1,475 Bartley Rd / Lor How Sun (61.9k sqm, 560 units)
Jun-10 $927 $1,292 $1,514 Awarded to Hong Leong, CDL and TID for $413.3m
May-10 $809 $1,245 $1,548 ($620.6 psf ppr)
Apr-10 $824 $1,183 $1,578 Bendemeer Rd / Whampoa East (65.2k sqm,780
Mar-10 $800 $1,219 $1,590 units) Awarded to United Engineers for $543m
Feb-10 $827 $1,281 $1,530 ($774.1 psf ppr)
Jan-10 $654 $1,085 $1,501
Dec-09 $797 $1,182 $1,520 Confirmed List (Recently Open for Tender)
Nov-09 $1,290 $1,421 $1,523 Tampines Central 7, EC (66k sqm, 660 units)
Oct-09 $616 $1,241 $1,500 Tender closing on 14 April
Sep-09 $567 $1,318 $1,570 Hillview Avenue (40k sqm, 370 units) Tender
Aug-09 $606 $969 $1,327 closing on 28 April
Jul-09 $525 $923 $1,319 Jalan Loyang Besar (56.6k sqm, 580 units) Tender
Jun-09 $524 $879 $1,132 closing on 10 May
May-09 $640 $819 $1,147 Sembawang Road / Jalan Sendudok (38.7k sqm,
Apr-09 $647 $808 $968 390 units) Tender closing on 26 May
Source: URA
Buangkok Drive / Sengkang East Drive (58.6k
sqm, 550 units) Tender closing on 2 June
Property Stocks
Name RNAV Price Disc/Premium Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender)
Allgreen N.A. 1.13 N.A. Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units)
CapitaLand 4.3 3.41 -21% Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495
City Dev 13.3 11.66 -12% units)
Ho Bee 2.87 1.45 -49%
Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units)
HPL 4.28 2.49 -42%
Keppel Land 5.36 4.44 -17% Alexandra Rd (48.8k sqm, 490 units)
SingLand 10.3 7.13 -31% Stirling Road (44.5k sqm, 445 units)
UOL N.A. 5 N.A. Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units)
Wheelock N.A. 1.87 N.A. Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units)
Wing Tai 2.83 1.6 -43% Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units)
N.A. = No Coverage
Source: HDB, URA

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 The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011
DEVELOPER’S LANDBANK Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Unsold
Developer District Landbank Tenure Units
6 South Beach (Beach Road) 99 119
9 Futura (Leonie Road) Freehold 122
10 Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Freehold 203
10 Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Freehold 178
11 Buckley Mansion/9 Buckley Rd (Buckley Road) Freehold 64
17 Flora Road GLS (Flora Road) 99 390
18 NV Residences (Pasir Ris) 99 147
City Dev 18 Pasir Ris Grove (Pasir Ris) 99 752
18 Pasir Ris Drive 8 (Pasir Ris) 999 1,517
18 Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North Freehold 605
19 H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) 99 371
19 Bartley Road GLS (Bartley Road) 99 560
23 Choa Chu kang GLS (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) 99 490
23 Segar Road GLS (EC) (Segar Road) 99 570
Sentosa Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 99 207
Total Unsold Units 6,294

KepLand 01 Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) 99 84

02 Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Freehold 620
04 Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) 99 349
04 Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) 99 307
04 Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) 99 234
04 Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) 99 94
19 Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) 99 530
22 The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) 99 146
Total Unsold Units 2,364

3 The Interlace (Gillman Heights) 99 422

9 Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Freehold 50
10 D’leedon (Farrer Rd) 99 1,452
CapitaLand 10 The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Freehold 55
16 Bedok Town Centre Site (Bedok Central) 99 469
20 Bishan GLS site (Bishan Street 14) 99 650
26 Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Freehold 140
Total Unsold Units 3,238

Ho Bee Sentosa Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) 99 114

Sentosa Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) 99 357
Total Unsold Units 471

UOL 2 Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Freehold 60

16 Bedok Reservoir (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99 640
Total Unsold Units 700

Allgreen 2 Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) 99 360

5 Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) Freehold 80
9 RV Residences (River Valley) 999 248
12 RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) 999 147
12 Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) 999 102
21 The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Freehold 109
Total Unsold Units 1,046

Wheelock 9 Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Freehold 99

10 Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Freehold 84
Total Unsold Units 183

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 The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011
DEVELOPER’S LANDBANK (cont’d) Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Unsold
Developer District Landbank Tenure Units
10 Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) 99 261
Guocoland
26 The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Freehold 64
Total Unsold Units 325

09 The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Freehold 71

Bt Sembawang 09 Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Freehold 34
09 St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Freehold 221
Total Unsold Units 326

9 StarHub Centre 99 240

15 Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Freehold 312
16 Waterfront Gold (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99 86
16 Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99 191
Frasers Centrepoint 18 Pasir Ris GLS (Pasir Ris Drive 3) 99 436
19 Upper Serangoon GLS site 99 472
19 Esparina Residences (Sengkang) 99 44
19 Punggol GLS site (Punggol Central) 99 685
27 Yishun Ave 2 GLS (Yishun Ave 2) 99 667
Total Unsold Units 3,133

3 Ascentia Sky (Redhill) 99 103

9 HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Freehold 69
9 Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Freehold 48
Wing Tai 10 Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Freehold 43
10 Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) Freehold 157
11 L'VIV (Newton Rd) Freehold 46
23 Petir Road GLS (Petir Road) 99 470
Total Unsold Units 936

10 NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Freehold 70

MCL Land 15 Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Freehold 65
19 Hougang Ave 2 GLS (Hougang Ave 2) 99 500
Total Unsold Units 635

9 The Marq (Paterson Hill) Freehold 39

9 Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Freehold 210
SC Global 9 Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Freehold 35
10 The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Freehold 50
Sentosa Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) 99 32
Total Unsold Units 366

Grand Total 20,017

Source: HDB, URA

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 The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011
SINGAPORE DISTRICT MAP Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01 Boat Quay, Chinatown, Havelock Road, Marina Square, Raffles Place, Suntec City
02 Anson Road, Chinatown, Neil Road, Raffles Place, Shenton Way, Tanjong Pagar
03 Alexandra Road, Tiong Bahru, Queenstown
04 Keppel, Mount Faber, Sentosa, Telok Blangah
05 Buona Vista, Dover, Pasir Panjang, West Coast
06 City Hall, High Street, North Bridge Road
07 Beach Road, Bencoolen Road, Bugis, Rochor
08 Little India, Farrer Park, Serangoon Road
09 Cairnhill, Killiney, Leonie Hill, Orchard, Oxley
10 Balmoral, Bukit Timah, Grange Road, Holland, Orchard Boulevard, River Valley, Tanglin Road
11 Chancery, Bukit Timah, Dunearn Road, Newton
12 Balestier, Moulmein, Novena, Toa Payoh
13 Potong Pasir, Macpherson
14 Eunos, Geylang, Kembangan, Paya Lebar
15 Katong, Marine Parade, Siglap, Tanjong Rhu
16 Bayshore, Bedok, Chai Chee
17 Changi, Loyang, Pasir Ris
18 Pasir Ris, Simei, Tampines
19 Hougang, Punggol, Sengkang
20 Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Braddell Road, Thomson
21 Clementi, Upper Bukit Timah, Hume Avenue
22 Boon Lay, Jurong, Tuas
23 Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang, Hillview Avenue, Upper Bukit Timah
24 Kranji, Lim Chu Kang, Sungei Gedong, Tengah
25 Admiralty, Woodlands
26 Tagore, Yio Chu Kang
27 Admiralty, Sembawang, Yishun
28 Seletar, Yio Chu Kang
Source: expats2singapore.com

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The Real Deals 14 April 2011

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