VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

CONTINGENCY PLAN ON DZUD

GOBI-ALTAI AIMAG

Environment & Security Center of Mongolia (NGO)

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2011

Environment & Security Center of Mongolia NGO

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 DOUBLE-CHECK ALL PAGES, some not OK.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. ACRONYMS........................................................................................................................................ii
2. FOREWORD.......................................................................................................................................iii
3. 1.INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................1
1.1.Common hazards and disasters......................................................................................................1
1.2.Results of Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment........................................................................2
1.2.1.Herder household vulnerability...................................................................................................3
1.2.2.Hay and fodder preparation status of a herder household...........................................................3
1.2.3.Availability of livestock shelters.................................................................................................4
1.2.4.Pasture sufficiency......................................................................................................................4
1.2.5.Food, housing, clothing and fuel supply.....................................................................................4
1.2.6.Psychological preparedness .......................................................................................................4
1.2.7.Access to information.................................................................................................................5
1.2.8.Pasture status and weather forecasts .........................................................................................5

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1.3.Means to reduce vulnerability........................................................................................................5
4. 2.CURRENT PREPAREDNESS LEVEL AND REQUIREMENTS
..............................................................................................................................................................8
2.1.Capacity of Red Cross Mid-level Branch......................................................................................8
5. 3.EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN.................................................................................................11
6. 4.MONITORING AND EVALUATION ...........................................................................................14
7. 5.RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................14
5.1.Strengthening human resource capacity.......................................................................................14
5.2.Prepare emergency food, clothes and other supply .................................................................14
5.3.Emergency storage.......................................................................................................................14
5.4.Increase emergency aid delivery capacity ..................................................................................14
8. ANNEX 1. Cost Estimation on Food and Clothing Supplies for Affected Households.......................15
9. ANNEX 2. Emergency Contact Information ......................................................................................16
10. ANNEX 3. Pasture Utilization Status and Weather Forecast..............................................................18
11. ANNEX 4. Officials Met During the Study
............................................................................................................................................................22
12. ANNEX 5. Mongolian Red Cross Society’s Mid-Level Branch Operational Capacity.......................25
13. ANNEX 6. Response to 2009-2010 Dzud by MRCS Gobi-Altai Mid-level Branch
............................................................................................................................................................26
14. ANNEX 7. Adiministrative Map of Gobi Altai aimag .......................................................................27
ACRONYMS

CRM Citizen’s Representative Meeting (Local Parliament)

ECHO European Commission’s Humanitarian Aid department
EMD Emergency Management Department
ESCM Environment & Security Center of Mongolia
FAD Food and Agricultural Department (aimag level)
FRC Finnish Red Cross
HD Health Department
IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
IHM Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology
LHC Local Herder Community
MECS Ministry of Education, Culture and Science
MFALI Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry
MRCS Mongolian Red Cross Society
NEMA National Emergency Management Agency
NGO Non-governmental organization
NP National Parliament
RDPC Regional Disaster Preparedness Center of MRCS
SGO Soum Governor’s Office

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FOREWORD

The assignment to conduct Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment among rural herders and to
develop a Contingency Plan of Gobi Altai aimag was carried out by Environment & Security Center
of Mongolia (ESCM) in two months period from November 2010 to January 2011. The work was
done in accordance with the Service Agreement between the Mongolian Red Cross Society and the
ESCM.

During field study, the research team visited potential dzud soums of Gobi-Altai aimag - namely,
Taishir, Jargalan, Bayan-Uul, Huh-Morit, Tugrug and Tonhil soums- and interviewed 398 herders.
Discussions were held with 62 soums, aimag and national level officials in charge of Livestock Sector
Development, Disaster Management and Social Development to identify and analyze vulnerability of
herding communities and their preparedness to dzud.

Findings of field study have been analyzed in comparison with aimag socio economic data,
meteorological and forecast data as well as official records of past dzud consequences. As result, this
report on Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment and a basic Contingency Plan of Gobi-Altai aimag
has been developed.

The study team of ESCM for this assignment includes: Mr. Erdenesaikhan N,Team Leader; Dr. Urjin
O, Advisor; Mr. Tsogt J, Senior Expert; Mr. Batmunkh E and Mr. Undralbat G, Experts, Purevdorj J
and Gantsog L, Local Assistants.

We would like to thank Toni and Hanski of Finnish Red Cross as well as Dashdeleg A., Bold-Erdene
E., Tuvshintugs D., of Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) for their valuable support provided
during the assignment.

Erdenesaikhan, Team Leader

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 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Common hazards and disasters

Severe cold weather, snow/ dust storms, drought, dzud, earthquake and animal to human
transmitted diseases are most common hazards in Gobi-Altai. According to the official records of
Aimag’s Emergency Management Department and Red Cross Mid-level Branch 7 droughts, 6 dzuds,
5 floods, 786 earthquake vibrations and 94 snow/dust storms occurred during the last decade. 45
people lost their lives as a result of these hazards.
Dzud disaster is the most frequent severely affecting the aimag and its herding community. Aimag’s
main economy is the livestock husbandry as 56% of total population is directly dependent on herding.

Table 1. Statistics on Dzud disasters occurred within last decade.

Number of
Livestock census data
Heads of Livestock households that
Year in the begging of the
livestock lost losses % lost all their
year
livestock
2000 2.112.200 28.700 1.3 58
2001 2.035.100 36.400 1.7 67
2002 1.714.700 663.200 39 1.096
2010 2.171.800 715.000 33 764

The following statistics show consequences of the last two dzuds:

A. Dzud disaster in winter of 2001-2002:

• 345.600 heads of livestock lost October- December 2001
• 663.200 heads of livestock lost January-May 2002
• 1.008.800 animals lost in 2001-2002, in total
• 1.096 herder households lost all their livestock
• 18 people committed suicide
B. Dzud disaster in winter of 2009-2010:
• 658.900 heads of livestock were lost (30.2%)
• 764 herder households lost their livestock
• 840 herder households lost more than 90%
• 1.980 herder households lost 50-90% of their livestock
• 3.580 herder households severely affected (43.4%)

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 • Market value of lost livestock appr 30 billion tugriks ( 18 million euros)

For locations of soums, please refer to ANNEX 7 “Administrative Map of Gobi Altai
aimag”.

Most severely affected soums 2009-2010:

• Jargalant soum lost 30.2% (66.200 animals)
• Huhmorit soum lost 43.4% (40.000)
• Tonhil soum lost 21.7% (41.200)
• Bugat soum lost 36.7% (43.300)
• Bayan-Uul soum lost 31.2% (48.800)
• Esonbulag soum lost 47.6% (48.800)

It has become more common that strong snow/ dust storms occur simultaneously and reach level of
dzud disaster. For example between March 24th and April 1st of 2008 enormous amount of snow fell
and strong snow storm occurred. During the storm 60 people were lost. 100 people and over 40
vehicles participated in rescue and managed to save 50 % of the people. 9.3000 heads of livestock
got lost. This illustrates a need to be prepared well for natural disasters which are becoming more
common.
In March 2009, very strong snow/ dust storm occurred all over the aimag and killed 6.000 animals.
These storms are happening during spring as livestock has very little energy left making them very
vulnerable. The storm caused material damage worth of 27 million tugriks.

1.2. Results of Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment

Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment was conducted on the following themes:
• Environment and geographical features
• Weather
• Legal framework
• Economy
• Administration
• Structures and organizations of the aimag
• Disaster prevention system

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 • Herder household livelihood status

1.2.1. Herder household vulnerability

Winter preparedness status and capacity of a herder household to overcome dzud hazards were
assessed on:
• Hay and fodder supply
• Pasture capacity
• Shelter, food, clothing and fuel supply
• Access to weather warning information
• Pasture status and weather forecast

1.2.2. Hay and fodder preparation status of a herder household

Dzud is mostly caused by drought in the summer. When cold season comes animals easily die if they
are not in good state in the beginning of the winter season. Herders’ livelihood depends very much on
hay and fodder preparation, and pasture they have to feed the livestock throughout the winter. In
2010, the aimag had relatively well pasture in the summer, 398 herder households of 7 soums
prepared 190 tons of hay and 31 tons of fodder for their 29.107 heads of livestock. This is enough to
feed the livestock up to 5 days.
In the government program of 2001 “Protect the livestock from dzud disaster” herders are required to
prepare feeding supply for their animals at least for 3 days. The overall data shows that the herders
have prepared well for the winter 2010-2011. However 150 households (36.5%) didn’t have any
preparation at all which makes them extremely vulnerable.

Table 2. Livestock food supply preparation status

Data collected from study
Soum's Report
Per household %
Days a herder
Soum family can feed Prepared for
No preparation Prepared for 3 days
their livestock in 30 days
the shelter at all % in shelter
in shelter
Taishir 6 37 17 34
Jargalan 10 25 5 55
Bayan-Uul 5 39 14 31
Huh-Morit 3 44 25 26
Sharga 4 28 28 42
Tugrug 2 17 61 16
Tonhil 3 64 11 20

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Average 5 36.5 23 32

1.2.3. Availability of livestock shelters

Appropriate animal shelter is the most important aspect of getting through the winter. Data provided
by Aimag’s Livestock Department shows that 93.5% of total number of herding households have
livestock fence. However our study revealed that e.g. only 34.5% of total herders in Tonhil soum and
78.4% of Jargalan soum have fencing. Only 1% of these shelters have insulation and 25% are roofed,
therefore not providing sufficient shelter. Those herders, which migrate often to remote pasture, don’t
have any shelter for their livestock. 51% of the herder households own or possess winter places with
fencing and 55% have spring places, which are crucial to ensure good preparedness for winter.

1.2.4. Pasture sufficiency

Although yield of pasture was decent during the summer in 2010, nutritious plants dried out during
fall due to drought. This causes problem for the herders who don’t have livestock shelter and solely
rely on the pasture in winter.
14% of the 398 herder households noted that the winter pasture is insufficient which increases their
vulnerability.

1.2.5. Food, housing, clothing and fuel supply

Most of the herders didn’t prioritize food, housing, clothing and fuel supply when asked if their
household has sufficiently insulation, how much fuel is prepared, do they have warm winter clothes
etc. Most said they have prepared or there is no problem at all. It is difficult to understand. However,
traditional thinking is that if herder’s livestock has sufficient feeding, it provides food- meat and
dairy products. This ensures constant food supply as well as cash for buying warm clothes, fuel and
meeting other household needs. Some questions were not brought attention to respondents.
31% have loans and most of them are struggling to repay which puts them in a more vulnerable
position.
If snow fall blocks roads and affects communication for quite some time, herders naturally run out of
food and drink supplies, especially in very remote areas. Therefore the emergency plan must include
these supplies as basic relief items.

1.2.6. Psychological preparedness

Some herders tend to rely on the assistance from the Governments and other sources too much and
not preparing hay and fodder by themselves.
Herders lack initiative to protect their pasture, to create fresh water source and to build animal
shelters. Some inexperienced young herders don’t have adequate herding skills and generally herders
lack knowledge how to market their products. There are also herders who had reasonably number of
animals (more than 1.500 heads), but only prepared hay/ fodder for 1.4 day. In Mongolia, a
household with 500 or more heads of livestock is able to meet all household needs.

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 Herding requires a lot of work and manpower at household level. The best practice is to form a
Herders’ Groups and work jointly in order to prepare hay/ fodder, to build animal shelters and o build
water points, to manage pasture etc. This saves resources and time resulting in more sustainable
herding. However, majority of herders are not taking advantage of these practices, due to lack of
knowledge and general behaviour of herders.

1.2.7. Access to information

Lot of herders are vulnerable to dzud disaster as they don’t have access to radio or other means of
communication obtaining timely weather information. The survey stated that only 27.5% have radios,
70% TVs, 64% mobile phones and 20% have subscribed newspapers. This means that there is still a
large portion of herders who easily miss out weather warnings which can be crutial.

1.2.8. Pasture status and weather forecasts

Although summer of 2010 was pleasant and pasture vegetation growth in aimag territory was
sufficient, drought condition prevailed in Bayan Uul, Darvi and Erdene soum territories (ANNEX 3).
Generally in the aimag, vegetation in pasture is dominated by onion like species. When this species
withers in fall, there is no dry biomass remains as result of wind during the winter season. This
creates a condition that pasture is not capable to feed livestock throughout the winter. Therefore,
aimag and soum authorities and herders should not only rely on pasture capacity in order to feed
livestock during cold seasons, but prepare sufficient amount of hay and fodder for their livestock.
In addition, pasture capacity exceeded 1-3 times in following places: bordering areas of Tonhil,
Tugrug and Bugat soums as well as some baghs territories of Tsogt, Biger and Delger soums. January
weather forecast anticipates average air temperature and precipitation to be prevailed in aimag’s
territory. The general long term weather forecast information- issued by Institute of Hydrology and
Meteorology last August- warns about more snowfall than multi-year average. So, livestock wintering
condition of herders in above mentioned soums may worsen in coming months.

1.3. Means to reduce vulnerability

The Mongolian Government and humanitarian organizations have to prioritize, to define roles &
responsibilities, to set a timeline and systematically implement actions to decrease vulnerability and
risks. The factors of vulnerability dictate a systematic and comprehensive approach as well as
consolidated actions of the Government, humanitarian organizations and herder communities to
address each of vulnerabilities.
Table 3.Factors of vulnerability, necessary actions, roles and required time to implement these
actions
N Factors of Means to decrease Implementing Prior Req Relatio
o vulnerabil vulnerability agency ity uire n to
ity d emerge
tim ncy

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 respon
e
se plan
* Train herders in practical
Ministry of Food
methods to adapt to climate
Environme Agriculture and
change
nt and Light Industry
* Set up basic mandatory (MFALI) 1-5
weather
1. standards and proper High year Low
related Ministry of
monitoring and evaluation s
vulnerabilit Education Culture
ies mechanism on winter
and Science
preparation for herder
(MECS)
households
* Allocate and give ownership
of pasture to herders and adjust National Parliament
Lack of livestock quantity to pasture (NP)
legal capacity and vegetation growth 1-5
framework
2. * Earn a winter pasture land by High year Low
for
protecting and rehabilitating s
protection Local herder
of pasture degraded pasture lands, communities (LHC)
establishing hay and fodder
reserves

* Train herders on marketing NGOs

Economic
* Charge fee on pasture NP
policy 1-10
3. related * Limit quantity of livestock MFALI High year Low
vulnerabilit hazardous to the pasture s
MECS
ies

Government
1-10
Increase of Ministry of Labor
* Create and increase High year Low
livestock MLSS
employment and non-livestoc s
quantity MFALI
income
but
decrease in * Process raw materials from Government
4.
quality due livestock in soums to create
to raising new income National Emergency
number of Management 1-2
* Provide hay and fodder to Agency (NEMA) High mon High
herder
those who cannot afford any ths
households Mongolian Red
Cross Society
(MRCS)

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 High
competitio * Use state budget to establish Government
n among hay and fodder reserves and Local
herders for sell it to the herders in Governments
pasture desperate need to eliminate
land shortage of hay/ fodder
Lack of supplies decreasing 1-10
Mediu
5. organizatio vulnerability High year
m
n and s
* Create capacity to prepare
services hay in the local level and Government
towards support likely actions Private sectors
decreasing
vulnerabilit * Assist herders to increase the
y to dzud quality of their livestock
disaster
Government
Lack of NEMA 1-2
planning Mediu
* Define roles of involving MRCS High year
and m
parties s
collaborati Humanitarian
on between * Jointly develop Disaster organizations
6.
governmen Prevention Plan
t agencies
* Develop Emergency
as well as NEMA 1-2
Response Plan
other High mon High
parties MRCS ths

* Provide necessary assistance

to those not able to prepare for
winter NEMA
Lack of
* Provide fuel assistance to MRCS
preparation 1-2
herders whom not able to
7. for the Humanitarian High mon High
prepare
winter by organizations ths
herders * Provide warm winter clothes
and insulation to households
that don’t have proper
insulation

Note: High priority actions such as training herders for livestock husbandry economics, creating jobs
and income, supporting and creating capacity to prepare hay/ fodder at the primary level, defining
roles for Government agenciesand creating cooperative emergency response plan will require
involvement of all concerned parties; e.g. Red Cross Mid-level Branch. Some of these actions will
play important role in preparedness of emergency response.

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 2. CURRENT PREPAREDNESS LEVEL AND REQUIREMENTS

2.1. Capacity of Red Cross Mid-level Branch

Red Cross Mid-level Branch has the Regional Disaster Preparedness Center (RDPC) covering
Gobi-Altai, Zavkhan and Bayankhongor aimags. This center organizes public awareness activities on
disaster riskreduction and on disaster preparedness as well as providing relief assistance to victims. The
center covers 283 baghs in 62 soums having land of 339,600 km2 and population of 221.300 people.
However the Mid-level Branches faces challenge to carry out this responsibility, due to limited resources.

Table 4. Summary of Red Cross Mid-level Branch operational capacity

Capacity Items Quantity Quality and/or
current status
Human resources Full time employee 6 Insufficient
Red Cross members 4.723
Volunteers 389
Transportation Russian Van UAZ- 1 In good condition
452 with 8 seats
Communication Telephone 1 Normal
Fax 1 Normal
Computer 3 Normal
Internet access 1 Mostly reliable
Premises Office room 8 rooms Good
Work space area 84 м2 Normal
Garage For two vehicle Normal
Land ownership and Possessed land 900 м2 -
Emergency storage Land possession 15 years -
capacity (for both period
72 м2 - need separate
Mid-level Branch
Emergency storage storages for Mid-
and RDPC)
space level Branch and for
RDPC
Hay preparation Tractor 2 Good; one bought
2010
Hay cutter 1
Bought 2010
Hay baler 1
Bought 2010
Hand tools 40
Bought 2010

1.
 Current emergency Blankets 186 pieces All new
relief items,
Narrow mat 186 pieces
All new
White cover sheet 162 pieces

162 pieces
Felt cover/5x2m/

186 pairs
Warm Clothes
Children's warm
clothes 186 pairs
186 pairs
Winter boots
186 pairs
Children's winter
186 pairs
boots
7
Gloves
Gers /w/Double
sheets and floor/

Red Cross Mid-level Branch has normally prepared only 30 tonnes of hay annually which has been
distributed to the poorest herders. In 2010, with the assistance of European Commission’s
Humanitarian Aid department (ECHO) and Finnish Red Cross, the Mid-level Branch received a
tractor with a cutter, a baling machine as well as most common spare parts and a generator. Thus,
capacity to prepare hay has really increased; 740 tonnes was prepared in 2010. This is 12.3% of total
amount of hay prepared in the aimag ( 6.019 tonnes).
Red Cross Mid-level Branch’s office is in decent condition. It owns a fair piece of land. However
branch lacks financial and human resources to function properly as a Regional Disaster Preparedness
Center.
Currently the Red Cross Mid-level Branch has emergency relief items for 186 people, only. This is
not even close to assist 0.5% of the extremely poor people in the aimag. There is no food reserve at
all. The Red Cross Mid-level Branch needs to have a separate warehouse for the office and for the
RDPC.
Assistance to the herders residing in rural area can take time as distance may be even more than 300
km. It can easily double if roads get blocked and detours are used. In addition herders are usually
located far from each. All this makes relief distribution very challenging. As of now the branch
doesn’t have a truck to deliver relief items to affected herders.

Required capacity level for implementing the emergency response plan

Establish a proficient, flexible organizational structure that meets the needs of local governments.
Currently the Red Cross Mid-level Branch is providing service to over 55,000 people in the area of
142,000 km2, with 6 full-time employees. In addition, one instructor is managing RDPC, too. Thus,
all staff is heavily overloaded and there is acute lack of human resource.
The branch needs to increase its food and warm clothing reserve by increasing the supplies and
storage capacity in order to provide assistance to at least 10% of the potential victims of dzud

1.
 disaster. Currently the branch has an emergency reserve for 372 adult and children, which is about
26% of total needs. These reserves are only clothing and there is no food reserve. Estimation on costs
of basic relief items is shown in Annex 1. Size of warehousing is 72 m2 and which contains both
emergency clothes for Gobi Altai aimag and for Regional Disaster Preparedness Center. For
operational purpose the storage needs to be separated.
At least, 1,120 tons of hay must be prepared for assisting the most vulnerable herders. The figure
comes from estimation that 1.200 tons can feed 100.000 sheep equivalent of 10% of poor herders in
seven days in shelter. Previous year the branch prepared 69.6% of the needs. (See recommendation
section).
Make a pre-planning for organization of delivery and transportation of emergency food, clothing,
hay/ fodder supplies in accordance with the long-term weather forecast and pasture carrying
capacity. It is important that the Red Cross Mid-level Branch allocates its emergency resources,
especially hay and fodder before winter starts. A decision to allocate emergency resources to needed
soums should be based on conclusions of professionals such as Aimag Agricultural Department,
Aimag Emergency Management Department as well as long-term weather forecast and Pasture
Carrying Capacity maps, which are produced annually in September and October by the Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology (2010-2011 Pasture Carrying Capacity and 2011 January Weather
Forecast maps are shown on Annex 3).
Make contribution to pasture protection, creating water source and building livestock shelters. In
some soums, grazing capacity is exceeded 2-3 times. Fresh water supply is only 39.86% in Altai
soum, 78.2% in Yesonbulag soum and 79.1% in Dariv soum. Only 1% of shelters have insulation to
protect livestock from cold; only 25.2% of herders have livestock shelters. Therefore there is a need
tha MRCS Mid-level Branch will get more involved in these very important activities. .
Contribute in establishing herder communities, training young and inexperienced herders, organize
public awareness activities among herders to make them more knowledgeable and less vulnerable to
dzud disaster. Moreover, it is need to ensure provision of psychological support to at least 50 % of
total victims of dzud disaster. The branch needs to increase its capacity to provide psychological
support.
Contribute to decreasing poverty by re-stocking, creating employment and re-qualification and
redirection of herders’ qualification into other development sectors. In 2009 poverty was 23.9% in
the aimag; it is now 34.5% including those herders who lost over 90% of their livestock. If include
those herders lost 50-90% of their livestock in 2009-2010 dzud disaster, this numbers even increase
up to 47.7%. Therefore appropriate actions should be taken to decrease poverty in order to reduce
vulnerabilities and contribute to emergency response.

1.
 3. EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN

Measures to take by the Red Cross Branch during dzud disaster Responsible person
in Aimag

Actions to be taken within the first 48 hours of the disaster

1. Collect information on status of the baghs, soums and herders 1. Red Cross Mid-level
affected by dzud. Branch Instructors
Information sources: Soum administration, Primary level RC
2. Red Cross Mid-level
branches, , Red Cross members, supporters and volunteers, other
Branch Senior instructor
organizations and dzud victims.../
3. Red Cross Mid-level
2. Release precaution information.
Branch Secretary
3. Confirm the collected data by comparing the data produced by the
4. Red Cross Mid-level
Emergency Management Department (EMD), Food and Agriculture
Branch Secretary
Department (FAD), Health Department (HD ) and Department of
Red Cross Mid-level
Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH).
Branch Instructor
4. Report dzud status to Soum Governor’s Office (SGO).
5. Red Cross Mid-level
5. Release the information to cooperative organizations, private Branch Secretary
entities and international organizations.
6. Red Cross Mid-level
6. Participate in special commission meeting, provide opinions and Branch Secretary
proposals.
7. Red Cross Mid-level
7. Report to SGO about the involvement of Red Cross in the decision Branch Secretary
made by the special commission meeting and prepare for
8. Red Cross Mid-level
implementation.
Branch Secretary
8. Re-clarify the cooperation plan with EMD and other related
agencies.

Activities within first week of the disaster

1. Join the assessment team and clarify the dzud disaster status. If not 1. Red Cross Mid-level
able to join the assessment team, regularly exchange information Branch Senior Instructor
with EMD, FAD and HD.
2. Red Cross Mid-level
2. Mobilize members and volunteers to provide moral support to the Branch Instructor
herders affected by dzud.
3. Red Cross Mid-level
3. Deploy first aid teams. Branch Instructor
4. Receive and analyze support requests from soum and bag 4. Red Cross Mid-level
administration and from herders. Branch Secretary
Red Cross Mid-level
5. Attend special commission meeting for discussion on assessment
Branch Senior instructor
outcome. Introduce requests made.
5. Red Cross Mid-level
6. Jointly make decisions with the EMD, FAD and other relative
Branch Secretary
agencies on criteria for beneficiaries, on relief items and logistics
6. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch board of directors

1.
 Activities within first month of the disaster

1. Regularly update the dzud status information. 1. Red Cross Mid-level

Branch Senior Instructor
2. Expand providing moral support to victims.
2. Red Cross Mid-level
3. Carry out distribution of relief items victims
Branch Instructor
3.1. food
3. Red Cross Mid-level
3.2. warm clothes Branch Secretary
3.3. hay and fodder and other needed stuffs 4. Red Cross Mid-level
4. Release information on dzud status. Branch Accountant

5. Start movement to help the dzud victims. 5. Red Cross Mid-level

Branch Driver,
6. Make assessment, monitor dzud status and support outcome. storekeeper
7. If the other aimags of the region are not facing a dzud disaster send 6. RCM Instructor
out request for support if needed
7. Red Cross Mid-level
8. Send support request with supporting details to the SGO. Branch Instructor
8. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Board of
Directors and Secretary

Activities within first three months of disaster

1. Provide support to distribution of relief items provided by SGO and 1. Red Cross Mid-level
international organizations. Branch Secretary
2. Re-assess dzud status. 2. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Board of
3. Make clarifications according to the needs.
Directors
3. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Secretary

Regional Disaster Prepardness Center's duty

1. Analyze dzud status and request provided by the aimag. 1. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Secretary
2. Send calculations and request to the SGO within 48 hours.
Red Cross Mid-level
3. Provide necessary support. Branch Instructor and
RDPC Manager
2. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Secretary
3. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Instructor and
RDPC Manager

1.
 Cooperation during implementation of plan

1. When working under establishment of emergency operational staff: 1. Red Cross Mid-level
Branch Senior Instructor
• Communicate through emergency line.
Branch Assistant
• Hold meetings in person or through representative. 2. Branch Senior Instructor
2. Working without establishment of emergency operational staff: Branch Assistant
Branch Assistant
• Communicate through number provided in ANNEX 2.
• Hold meeting in person or through representative.

Remarks: Instructors must be able to re-place each other, when necessary. Schedule for the Board
of Directors to work in the soums should be discussed with the Secretary and the Chairman of the
Red Cross Mid-level Branch as need arises

1.
 4. MONITORING AND EVALUATION
M&E is planned as follows:
• Every June the MRCS announces bidding and selects an independent monitoring team to
monitor effectiveness and outcome of implementation of Contingency Plan as well as to
revise it accordingly
• Every December MRCS jointly with the IFRC and other donors establishes evaluation team
in order review implementation of recommendations and emergency reserve status.

5. RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1. Strengthening human resource capacity
Since Red Cross Mid-level Branch lacks human resources periodically. In case of any disaster, there
is a heavily work load. In sake of the RDPC, there is even more need to have more human resources.
Recommendation is to employ a new instructor in-charge of RDPC and working towards reducing
vulnerability to dzud and other risks affecting herders. NOT VERY CLEAR!
A truck driver is required in order to transport relief items to soums.

5.2. Prepare emergency food, clothes and other supply

Food reserve requires a special condition in order ensure quality. Cnstruction and maintenance of
food reserve storage requires a huge investment. An option is to make a contract with food
manufacturer or supplier, who takes responsibility to provide quality food timely in right quantity.
The Regional Disaster Preparedness Center of Altai should have adequate reserves to cater all three
aimags.
SW radio is also required as a relief item to herders as there is a challenge in getting weather updates
timely. In order to supply this item, one should conduct a needs assessment among herders and
availability and price at local markets on radio receivers and make a relevant supply
Required emergency food and clothes items with all details are included in ANNEX 1.

5.3. Emergency storage

Current storage of relief items keeps emergency reserve both for RDCP and for Gobi-Altai aimag.
For operational purpose, it needs to be separated.
Regarding storage of hay, the Branch should make a contract with Aimag government and
Emergency Management Department in order to ensure dry and safe warehousing until distributed to
beneficiaries.
In order to allocate hay and fodder reserve to potential dzud soums before winter starts, it is important
to make contracts with those soum governments annually.

5.4. Increase emergency aid delivery capacity

4.
 Red Cross Mid-level Branch needs to acquire a truck to transport relief items to victims in dzud
affected areas.
An option is to buy a truck and assign a driver. This option needs to be assessed in terms of required
capacity, costs, fuel consumption, maintenance cost, spare parts and salary of a driver.
Another option is to make an annual contract with a transporter in the aimag. By doing so the
company would take full responsibility and Mid-level RC Branch could focus fully on matters
directly related to distribution of relief items, such as beneficiary selection and monitoring .

5.5. Provision of training for inexperienced young herders

It is high priority to train inexperienced and young herders on traditional herding, on dzud
preparedness and risk reduction. Past experience shows that majority of those herders who were
affected are those with less than 20 years of herding experience and emerging young herders.
The topics for training sessions may include:
• Determining of Pasture Carrying Capacity
• Community Pasture Management
• Restoring degraded pasture
• Hay/ fodder preparation in accordance with livestock number
• Animal shelter
• Indigenous knowledge how to cope with dzud
• Increasing productivity per animal
• Animal health
• Advantages and disadvantages of Herders’ Groups
• Marketing
All the key players including MFALI, NEMA, Local Governments and Humanitarian Organizations
should organize this kind of training annually through Herder’s Training program which needs to be
established as soonest. Suitable time for conducting training could be June and July.

ANNEX 1. Cost Estimation on Food and Clothing Supplies for Affected Households

4.
 Item Quantity Cost
(Exchange rate as of 17th Jan, 2011)
for 358 households

Per household Total Price per Total cost, USD EUR

quantity toal Tugrug Rate: Rate:
quantityin 1245 1667
tugriks

Food

Flour (kg) 50 17,900 900 16,110,000 12,940 9,664

Rice (kg) 25 8,950 1,500 13,425,000 10,783 8,053

Warm clothing:

Winter jacket
and trousers 2 pairs 716 100,000 71,600,000 57,510 42.951
for an adult

Winter boots
2 pairs 716 40,000 28,640,000 23,004 17,180
for an adult

Winter jacket
and trouser 2 pairs 716 50,000 35,800,000 28,755 21,476
for a child

Winter boots
2 pairs 716 25,000 17,900,000 14,377 10,738
for a child

Total 184,475,000 147,389 110,053

Note: In the dzud disaster of 2009-2010, 6.400 herders lost all or more than 90% of their livestock.
7.900 herders had lost 50-90%. So, approximately 14.300 herders were severely affected by the
disaster. Red Cross Mid-level Branch’s goal is to provide assistance to 10% of these disaster victims,
which are approximately 1,430 herder households. Is it matching with 358 households? 14300
individuals???
Naturally it is important to have a steady stock and replenish accordingly.
Estimated cost might rise due to inflation

ANNEX 2. Emergency Contact Information

Red Cross Mid-level Branch Board of Directors

4.
 Board of
No. Occupation Contact
Directors
1 Sh. Erdenebat Chairman, Aimag’s Citizen’s representative meeting
93014747
(CRM)
2 Ts. Governor’s office manager
99482000
Sambuudash
3 Kh. Orosoo Director, Utility Service Company 99887785
4 Ya. Khuryn Shim Company
93071001
Burneebaatar
5 Ch. Dashdeleg Mercy Corp Representative 99098312
6 S. Buyanjargal Coordinator, Norwegian Aid Program 99022800
7 J. Batsukh Deputy director, Emergency Management
93015353
Department
8 M. Erdenebileg Director, Aimag Children’s center 99002600
9 M. Director, Aimag Labor and Welfare service center
99031101
Myanganbuu

Red Cross Mid-level Branch Staff

1 Ch. Handmaa Branch Secretary 24223/98995857
2 U. Tsetsegmaa Accountant 24813/99489086
3 N. Dashzeveg Senior Instructor 23719/99483719
4 O. Oyuntsetseg Instructor 23752/92688078
5 D. Uranchimeg Assistant 99488956
6 B. Bat-Erdene Driver/ Storekeeper 93213507

4.
 ANNEX 3. Pasture Utilization Status and Weather Forecast

Summer pasture status

Summer pasture status is updated at a 10-day period from the Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology
based on the data collected from meteorological stations located in each soum.
For locations of soums, please refer to ANNEX 7 “Administrative Map of Gobi Altai
aimag”.
As of July 31st 2010 summer pasture status was relatively good throughout the region, only Bayan-
Uul, Darvi and Erdene soums have had drought (Picture 1).

Picture 1. Summer pasture status

Pasture Carrying Capacity

Pasture Carrying Capacity is calculated annually within August. It is based on pasture vegetation
growth, livestock quantity, pasture land area size, pasture usage limit according to the Government’s
Resolution # 190 “Preventing from drought, dzud, flood and other weather related disasters”.
According to the 2010-2011 winter and spring Pasture Carrying Capacity status forecast, most of
the soums will have sufficient pasture except for Tonhil, Tugrug, Bugat soums’ border regions and
some baghs of Tsogt, Biger and Delger soums. All of these soums have 1-3 times overusage.

4.
 Picture 2. Winter and spring pasture status

If the Pasture Carrying Capacity status data shows 100%, this means the pasture is sufficient for the
soum’s total livestock to feed. If the data shows 200%, then measurements must be taken to send half
of the herders for temporary winter migration.
Winter Pasture Carrying Capacity is sufficient because of decent summer pasture.. The fact that about
30% of the livestock were lost during the dzud in 2009 and 2010 has impact on sufficiency of pasture
carrying capacity this winter.

4.
 Snow cover
Snow cover data is also collected and released every 10 days during the winter.
Picture 3. Snow cover

Within the first 10 days of December 2010, there is a snow coverage of 5cm in over 40% of the
aimag (Picture 3).

Forecast
According to the average of past several years, the temperature in January 2011 will be -15-19oC
in most parts of the aimag; however 1oC warmer in the northern region.
Picture 4. Air temperature forecast in January 2011 (warmer region)

4.
 According to multi-year average, 0.0-0.2 mm snow falls in January in southern region of Tonhil,
Tsogt and Erdene soums; south-western part of Bugat; south-eastern region of Altai; northern part of
Huhmorit, Bayan-Uul, Sharga, Haliun, Biger and Chandmani soums. Also in Jargalan, Taishir,
Delger soums (Picture 5) snow fall will be average. In other areas snow will be less than average.
Around at the beginning and middle of month and at the fourth quarter of the month, snowfall will
occur in some soums and by the end of second ten days of the month snowfall will occur in
mountainous region. Wind speed will reach up to 12-14m/sec in some areas, even up to 16-18m/sec
in Altai Mountains.
Picture 5. Precipitation forecast in January 2011

Within beginning and middle of the month air temperature will be -28-33CO at night and -19-
24CO during daytime in the northern part of the aimag, respectively -23-28CO and -13-18CO in the
southern part. The temperature will fall by 4-7CO during 3rd 10-day of the month throughout the
aimag. By the beginning of 2nd and 3rd 10-day period of the month temperature will rise to -20-25C O
at night and -10-15 CO at day in northern part; -14-19CO/ - 4-9CO in other parts of the aimag.

Conclusion
Summer pasture growth was decent and Pasture Carrying Capacity is relatively sufficient, but a
nutritious plant “borog ovs” was scarce. This will not make it easier to pass the winter.
According to the winter weather forecast snowfall will occur more than average, therefore snow cover
will increase and air temperature will fall.
Gobi-Altai aimag has high frequency of dzud and drought. Impact of climate change is also
contributing to drought. According to forecast of climate change, drought is on increase.

4.
 ANNEX 4. Officials Met During the Study

Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) HQ

1. A. Dashdeleg Head, Programme Development department
2. E. Bold-Erdene Coordinator, Disaster Management Program
3. D. Tuvshintugs Project Officer, ECHO/FRC Project

Finnish Red Cross (FRC)

4. Hanski Kankuri Technical Advisor, ECHO/FRC project Mongolia
5. Toni Jokinen Programme Officer, FRC HQ Finland

NEMA HQ
6. D. Namsrai Vice-Director
7. S. Tsogtbaatar Director, Disaster Management Department
8. D. Turbat Officer in charge of Agriculture
9. B. Tuya Officer in charge of Meteorology and Hydrology

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry Ulaanbaatar

10. T. Ganhuyag Director, Livestock Policy Coordination Department

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Ulaanbaatar

11. Sarantuya Director
12. Erdenetsetseg Senior researcher, Agricultural Meteorology Sector
13. Sarantuya Senior researcher, Weather Forecast Sector

Aimag and soum officials

14. Sh. Erdenebat Chairman, Citizien’s Representative Meeting (CRM), Head, Red
Cross Mid-level Branch
15. Sh. Amgalanbayar Governor, Gobi-Altai Aimag
16. Ts. Batzorig Director, Development Policy Division of Aimag (DPD)
17. B. Elbegjargal Senior staff, DPD
18. Nordongarav Director, Aimag Statistical Department
19. Erdene-Ochir Deputy Director, Aimag Department of Food and Agriculture
20. S. Munkhjargal Director, Aimag Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
21. T. Narangerel Staff, Aimag Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

4.
 22. G. Nergui Director, Emergency Management Department
23. J. Batsukh Deputy Director, EMD
24. J. Purevdorj Staff, EMD
25. Ch. Khandmaa Secretar, Red Cross Mid-level Branch
26. O. Ouyntsetseg Instructor, Red Cross Mid-level Branch
27. N. Dashzeveg Instructor, Red Cross Mid-level Branch
28. U. Tsetsegmaa Accountant, Red Cross Mid-level Branch
29. Baasanjav Chairman, Taishir Soum CRM
30. Tsedevsuren Deputy Governor, Taishir Soum
31. Ganbaatar Governorn, 1st Bagh , Taishir Soum
32. Chilkhaasuren Governor, 2nd Bagh, Taishir Soum
33. Ser-Od Governor, 3rd Bagh, Taishir Soum
34. B. Gotov Governor, Jargalan Soum
35. Baasanjav Chairman, Jargalan Soum CRM
36. S. Purevsuren Deputy Governor, Jargalan Soum
37. Z. Munkhbaigal Manager, Jargalan Soum Governor’s office
38. Ts. Enkhbaatar Director, Bayan-Uul Soum CRM
39. B. Altangerel Governor, Bayan-Uul Soum
40. P. Enkhtaivan Deputy Governor, Bayan-Uul Soum
41. B. Batnairamdal Manager, Bayan-Uul Soum Governor’s Office
42. N. Chuluunbaatar Bagh Governor, Bayan-Uul Soum
43. Z. Erdenetsogt Governor, Altangadas Bagh
44. Ts. Tumurt Chairman, Huhmorit Soum CRM
45. Davaasuren Secretary, Huhmorit Soum CRM
46. D. Avarzed Manager, Huhmorit Soum Governor’s Office
47. N. Luvsan Deputy Governor, Huhmorit Soum
48. D. Batmagnai Governor, Huhmorit Soum
49. D. Shagdarsuren Governor, 5th Bagh
50. Nyamdorj Governor, 1st Bagh
51. I. Gantulga Governor, 4th Bagh
52. D. Purevsuren Governor, 3rd Bagh
53. Dorjdulam Governor, 2nd Bagh
54. Munkhbaatar Inspector, National Inspection Agency
55. S. Vaanchig Manager, Supply Branch
56. D. Shinebayar Chairman, Tugrug Soum CRM

4.
 57. J. Ganbuyan Governor, Tugrug Soum
58. P. Nyamzorig Deputy Governor, Tugrug Soum
59. D. Erkhemjargal Manager, Tugrug Soum Governor’s Office
60. D. Mendsaikhan Chairman, Tonhil Soum CRM
61. L. Tsedenbal Governor, Tonhil Soum
62. B. Battor Deputy Governor, Tonhil Soum
63. J. Ganzorig Manager, Tonhil Soum Governor’s Office

4.
 ANNEX 5. Mongolian Red Cross Society’s Mid-Level Branch Operational Capacity
(as of December 2010)
MAKE SURE IT’S THE SAME AS IN TEXT. E.G. storage space different!!!
Capacity Items Quantity Quality and/or
current status
Human resources Full time employee 6 Insufficient
Red Cross members 4.723
Volunteers 389
Transportation Russian Van UAZ- 1 In good condition
452 with 8 seats
Communication Telephone 1 Normal
Fax 1 Normal
Computer 3 Normal
Internet access 1 Mostly reliable
Premises Office room 8 rooms Good
Work space area 84 м2 Normal
Garage For two vehicle Normal
Land ownership and Possessed land 900 м2 -
Emergency storage Land possession 15 years -
capacity (for both period
8м2 Insufficient
Mid-level Branch
Emergency storage
and RDPC)
space
Hay preparation Tractor 2 Good; one bought
Hay cutter 1 2010
Hay baler 1 Bought 2010
Hand tools 40 Bought 2010
Bought 2010
Current emergency Blankets /pieces/ 186 All new
relief items Narrow mat /pieces/ 186
White cover sheet 162
/pieces/
Felt cover/5x2m/ 162
Warm Clothes 186
/pairs/ 186
Children's warm
clothes /pairs/ 186
Winter boots /pairs/ 186
Children's winter
boots/pairs/ 186
Gloves /pairs/ 7
Gers /w/Double
sheets and floor/

4.
 ANNEX 6. Response to 2009-2010 Dzud by MRCS Gobi-Altai Mid-level Branch

Before dzud disaster Public awareness activity for 5.500 herders on disaster preparedness

During dzud disaster Assistance in 4.4 million MNT provided to 18 soums and 2 villages
of Gobi-Altai aimag

Psychological support letters delivered to over 300 herder

households

After dzud disaster Food supplies for 3 months to 295 households who lost all of their
livestock(IFRC)

Financial assistance of 65.675.000 tugriks for 199 households;

320.000 tugriks per household (IFRC)

740 tons of hay prepared and distributed to 528 affected herder

households, which is approximately 6.4% of total herders
(ECHO/FRC)

4.
 ANNEX 7. Adiministrative Map of Gobi Altai aimag

4.