!"#$%&'("#)*($+&)*(),$+,-.

)(#$/#(0&12$3%4++/5$-*$6#6-7)(#6$(&$
8&*(#1-9:$1#:-&9),$,#)6#1*"-;$-9$.-(-:)(-9:$)96$)6);(-9:$(&$("#$7"),,#9:#$
&8$:,&<),$0)1.-9:=$$

!"#$/#(0&12$;1&.&(#*$;1&(#7(-&9$&8$("#$%&'("#)*(>*$'9-?'#,@$A',9#1)<,#$
7&)*(),$1#*&'17#*$<@$-971#)*-9:$,&7),B$*()(#$)96$9)(-&9),$)0)1#9#**$&8$
("#$("1#)(*$)96$&;;&1('9-(-#*$;&*#6$<@$7,-.)(#$7")9:#=$

!&$C&-9$("#$%4++/D$$000=*#779=:1&';*-(#=7&.$$
!&$C&-9$("#$E,&1-6)$+,-.)(#$F,,-)97#D$
000=8,&1-6)7,-.)(#),,-)97#=:1&';*-(#=7&.$$

!"#$"%&'$%()*+,-*',%+$.%($'"#$/%0'"#*&'$1%*&'*2$12,3*'#$4#'5%(6$,&$$
G+H4G$-*$)9$-9(#19)(-&9),$)**&7-)(-&9$&8$,&7),$:&A#19.#9(*$)*$0#,,$)*$
9)(-&9),$)96$1#:-&9),$,&7),$:&A#19.#9($&1:)9-I)(-&9*$(")($")A#$.)6#$)$
7&..-(.#9($(&$*'*()-9)<,#$6#A#,&;.#9(=$

JA#1$KKLM$7-(-#*B$(&09*B$7&'9(-#*B$)96$("#-1$)**&7-)(-&9*$0&1,60-6#$
7&.;1-*#$G+H4GN*$:1&0-9:$.#.<#1*"-;=$$

G+H4G$;1&A-6#*$(#7"9-7),$7&9*',(-9:B$(1)-9-9:B$)96$-98&1.)(-&9$*#1A-7#*$(&$
<'-,6$7);)7-(@B$*")1#$29&0,#6:#B$)96$*';;&1($,&7),$:&A#19.#9($-9$("#$
-.;,#.#9()(-&9$&8$*'*()-9)<,#$6#A#,&;.#9($)($("#$,&7),$,#A#,=$$

G+H4G>*$<)*-7$;1#.-*#$-*$(")($,&7),,@$6#*-:9#6$-9-(-)(-A#*$7)9$;1&A-6#$)9$
#88#7(-A#$)96$7&*(O#88-7-#9($0)@$(&$)7"-#A#$,&7),B$9)(-&9),B$)96$:,&<),$
*'*()-9)<-,-(@$&<C#7(-A#*=$$
Sea-level changes: past
present and future
Benjamin Horton (and many, many, many, many, many others)

Sea Level Research

Department of Earth and Environmental Science
University of Pennsylvania
Contact: bphorton@sas.upenn.edu
Outer Banks North Carolina, November 2009
Greenland Ice Sheet
Antarctic Ice Sheet
(1) Observation
of ice loss
01.31.2002 02.21.2002

02.22.2002 03.05.2002
1910

2001
1906

2003
(2) Future EUSTATIC Sea-Level
Rise Estimates for A.D. 2100
Sea-level rising faster than expected
(3) Reconstruction of sea level

RSL= eustatic + isostatic

 Eustacy (ocean)
changes through
time!
RSL (m below present)
!! 50 million km3 of ice has melted, raising
global sea level by 120 -140 m
!! Deglacial
sea-level
rise ~ 10
mm/year
!! 2 episodes
at 19,000
years and
14,500
years BP
when peak
rates > 50
mm/year
Isostatic (land) changes
through time!
Current land
level
subsidence
for the last
4000 years!
(mm/yr)!
This also is the
background rate
of sea-level rise
for the last 4000
year!
Eustatic = 0 !
so!
RSL = Isostatic
(c) Historical period (satellites &
tide gauges)
Global mean sea-level rise
Global
20th century
1.8 mm/yr

1993-2003
3.1 mm/yr

Key West
20th century
2.2 mm/yr
Tide
Gauges!

20th
century
rises >
2mm/yr!

Remember!
Last 4000yrs!
<1mm/yr
Last 4000yrs
20th century
Increase in the rate of 20th century Sea-level rise

Increase in rate of RSLR of 1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr-1

 Summary
!! Global sea level rose by about 120 m from the end of the
last ice age (approximately 21,000 years ago) to
stabilization 4,000 years ago.
!! Sea level indicators suggest that global sea level EUSTATIC
did not change significantly from then until the late 19th
century.
!! The instrumental record of modern sea level change shows
evidence for onset of sea level rise during the 19th century.
!! Estimates for the 20th century show that global average
EUSTATIC sea level rose at a rate of about 1.8 mm yr–1.
!! Satellite observations shows that since 1993, EUSTATIC sea
level has been rising at a rate of around 3 mm yr–1,
!! Sea level is projected to rise at an even greater rate in this
century. The EUSTATIC range is between 22cm and > 2m.
!! The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal
expansion of the oceans (water expands as it warms) and
the loss of land-based ice due to increased melting.
 Thank you
To understand sea-
level change, we must
know the the sum of
global, regional and
local trends related to
changing ocean and
land levels
Adaptation Planning for Coastal Climate Change:
Some Fundamental Resources and Principles

Dr. Ken Lindeman

Dept. of Marine and Environmental Systems
Florida Institute of Technology
Melbourne, Florida
Assumptions

-! Conservatively, there will by 0.5-3 ft of sea level rise by 2100 in the SE US,
with an acceleration later in the century that may exceed this range.

- Coastal adaptation involves both site-specific and broadly-generic principles.

Objectives (available time and issue diversity preclude a comprehensive adaptation review)

-! Identify several scales of information resources for the SE US and Caribbean.

-! Summarize some fundamental approaches to adaptation planning and

emerging alternatives.
Coastal Adaptation – Virtual Library Resources
-! 650 pdfs on adaptation planning at your fingertips, more added semi-continuously.
-! 80 geographic subfolders in 13 directories.
-! Focus is on planning and adaptation, many reports have science summaries.

http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/
Multiple documents are available that summarize state-scale SLR and CC
adaptation planning exist, including docs by Pew, CSO, NOAA/SeaGrant
and others.
Though not the focus of this
presentation, multiple new
and old documents are
posted that examine federal-
scale adaptation planning.
Examples of dozens of SLR
planning resources at the
Florida state scale. Three
other Fl regional folders hold
more site-specific reports.

http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/
Florida Local Case Studies
-! A growing number of site-specific coastal climate planning/adaptation reports
are becoming available. Some examples are underlined below (not
comprehensive).
-! Interestingly, Estevez (1990) using surveys of governmental agencies
estimated that approx 14 local govs. made reference to SLR in their
comprehensive plans.
-! SLR adaptation language is potentially being brought into several comp
plans currently, including Satellite Beach in east-central Florida.
Caribbean and Latin America:
-! 12 subregional folders
-! > 100 pdfs in Spanish & Engl.
Riviera Maya
- Cancun, largest Carib.
tourism destination

Sian Ka’an

Costa Maya
Needed emphasis on Public
Participation: Based on
Principle 10 of the Rio
Declaration (1992), and many
intergovernmental reports
before and since, the OAS
resolved in 2000:
Core PP Principles
•! Proactivity
•! Inclusiveness
•! Shared Responsibility
•! Open Process
•! Access
•! Transparency
•! Respect for Public Input
 Objectives

-! Identify several scales of information resources for the SE US

and Caribbean.

-! Summarize some fundamental approaches to adaptation

planning and emerging alternatives.
 Adaptation Infrastructure –
Many differing goals that can influence planning

Z. Johnson, MDNR, 2010

 There are many
approaches to
adaptation planning,
generic principles can
be customized
according to site-
specific attributes
and goals
ICLEI – Local Governments for
Sustainability
- many web and print resources
- diverse local gov. applications
underway
 ICLEI’s 10 Keys to Sustainability Planning Success
Pre-Milestone Planning: Making a Commitment, Forming a Team
Key #1: Hire a sustainability coordinator to run the show.
Key #2: Obtain buy-in from a big wig.
Key #3: Form teams that build bridges across city departments & beyond city hall.
Milestone One: Conduct a sustainability assessment
Key #4: Develop a sea level threat analysis
Milestone Two: Establish sustainability goals
Key #5: Define clear, relevant, and measurable goals.
Key #6: Get regular people to tell you what sustainability goals are important to them.
Milestone Three: Develop a local sustainability plan
Key #7: Develop implementation plans within your plan.
Key #8: Take a deep breath and release a draft plan for public comment.
Milestone Four: Implement policies and measures
Key #9: Track the implementation status of your measures.
Milestone Five: Evaluate progress and report results
Key #10: Remain accountable to the public.
Adaptation workshops: example of a clear agenda.
L. Carter, LSU, 2010
 Planning should consider Chronic and Episodic impacts

•! Pre-disaster planning is
preferable to post-disaster.
•! However, post-disaster
planning is an opportunity to
retrofit planning to respond
for the long term.
Donovan & Smith, 2010
•! Probably the wrong time for
BAU.
•! Adaptive planning for SLR is not different from the sustainable coastal planning goals
sought by many before CC and SLR were more acceptable to discuss.

•! The chronic undervaluation of risk is becoming less tenable.

•! An ounce of prevention ($millions) is worth a pound of cure ($millions/billions/trillion).

•! Therefore: the following two issues, often under-represented in the adaptation

literature, should be explicitly considered and emphasized for fully developed and
effective coastal climate planning:

•! the promotion of density and infrastructure increases in flood zones should not
continue at past rates and should surface as an explicit adaptation issue
receiving the level of discussion applied to other issues.

•! strategic withdrawal (managed retreat) should surface as an explicit adaptation

issue receiving the level of discussion applied to other issues.
•! Risk Management is a
common component of
successful sustainable
business models.

•! Build basic principles of

Risk Management into
local and regional coastal
planning, esp. in periods
of climate change.
 Acknowledgements

Haiyun Yu, S. Ainsley, G. Maul, H. Wanless, G. Appelson, T. Ruppert,

B. Horton, J. Fergus, B. Day, R. Parkinson, Brian Keller, C. Bergh, T. Reale