•

-& April 30,2002

SUBJECT: COUNTRIES FOR U.SJDOD TO EMPHASIZE - AND WHY

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1\UxiedfCanada - Homeland security depends on our neighbootbeing
reasonably successful politically, economically and orderly and helpful from a
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Central/South America - We can't tolerate extremis· or mass diso{def -:}o.f:i-u. h\ I
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Italy - Government is leaning our way; can help counter EU et.al; can assist
in moving NATO and Europe in the right direction.

Norway -same as Italy.

UK - U.S. special relationship - it is helpful.

Poland -Can be the NATO transformation centerpiece and help shift

NATO's weight east; special relationship with Ukraine; is realistic about
Russia from experience.

Spain - Need one or two more countries in NATO and Europe to be helpful;
U.$.basingin Spain is important.

---. Other?
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El\st Asia (Needed to favorably affect PRC's entry into the world)

Japan .... The single most important factor to moderate China's behavior is a
successful Japan, with a booming economy. U.S. must focus to help make it
happen.

Korea - North Korea will collapse or get pushed one day. A united Korea
will have a period ofyears coping with the disaster in North Korea, but
thereafter it will have a powerful economy and can help serve, with Japan, as
a moderating influence on China.
Declassified By Ch RDD,ESDWHS .
Australia - A special relationship; valued location.
IAW EO 12958 as amended
Sep 18, 2008

08-M-3282
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Slnaapore - In our camp; with same geo-strategic views.

Vl.etnam? - Could help to moderate the PRC; important location.

Other?

Muslim NitiQI),§ (So many nations with so many people, with a mix ofhannful views and
real needs - they cannot be ignored; we need to work to create some successful models.)

Turkey - A democracy and a Muslim success; we must help keep it so.

Pakistan -. A potential"poster boy" for the Muslim world; we must help.

Indonesia - Too bigwith too many people to ignore; has serious extremist
problem.

Jordan - A friend, with the right instincts; we must help it survive.

Egypt - Still a leader in the Muslim world.

SQU1l1 A.sia (Large populations)

India - A democracy and a Muslim success; we must help keep itso.

Csrntral Asia-(Evolving, looking for counterweight to Russia and PRC; enormous

energy potential, secular muslims v. religious extremism)

Kazakhstan - Big; oil-rich; leading our way; see the U.S. as counterbalance
to PRC and Russia.

AZjerbaijan - Friendly, potential as war on forward operating base

Kyrgyzstan - Friendly

.lJzb.ldstan - concerned aboutRussia, has chosen the U.S.

Afghanistan - A potential liability; U.S. has a stake in it not failing.

Declassified By Ch RI>. ..
fA W EO 12958 D,ESDWHS
Sep 18, 2008 as amended
DHRlazn
043002.5.01

08-M-3282