AFRICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD

Introduction

Africa has currently been facing drastic demographic changes despite having been perceived by
demographic pundits as a region unaffected by demographic transition. The extent of
urbanization for each country in Africa has been the determining factor in making the
demographic transition still remain heterogeneous. Demographic changes may have a direct
effect on economic growth in the continent as a result of the drastic change in age structure
especially if the labor market has the necessary absorption capacity for the working-age
population in Africa.

The demographic bonus and other factors discussed in this issue paper have contributed to the
growth of the African economy by a yearly average rate of 5.5 percent, against only 1.35 percent
in the euro zone. If the present trends continue, the millennium development goal of halving the
proportion of people with incomes less than one dollar a day will be achieved by 2015. All
regional indicators, from demographic growth to foreign investments, from urbanization to
participation in international trade, aided by political stability, support the fact that Africa is
steadily moving towards economic actualization. The demographic evolution in the region is
now marked by a simultaneous fall in the birth rate and a more moderate population growth.
Economic pundits have estimated that by the year 2050, Africa will count some two billion
inhabitants, with 60 percent of them living in cities, such a conjunction of urbanization and
demographic growth has historically always led to development by improving productivity,
creating large markets and stimulating domestic demand, with positive spill-over effects for the
countryside.

Population growth plays a key role in economic growth and this gives birth to the concept of
1
“demographic dividend” which is likely to occur when the fertility decline leads to a rapid
decline in the rate of demographic dependency, and thus enabling an increase in savings and
therefore investment, including in human capital hereby directly affecting the social-economic
lifestyles of youth in Africa. In essence for the demographic bonus to be materialized, the decline
in demographic dependency ratio must be accompanied by a decrease in the economic

1
Demographic dividend is a result of the correlations found between the rate of
demographic dependency and economic growth (Bloom, Canning and Sevilla, 2003, Bloom
et al.2007).
dependency ratio. Decrease in the economic dependency ratio is largely based on the ability of
the economy to absorb the "over flow" of young people who are at the age of entering the labor
market in Africa. This absorption capacity itself depends heavily on the characteristics and
functioning of the labor market. On the other hand, given their importance in the population
dynamics and internal migration; work-related mobility is a dimension that is inalienable to
Africa’s sustainable development. Migration and mobility are indeed likely to influence the
functioning of the labor market and population dynamics due to the change in the structure by
age and sex of the labor supply. This is particularly true in Africa where the dualism of the
economy and rural-urban migration deeply shape the labor market determining whether it has the
capacity to contain the growing and empowered working age population.

This issue paper envisages the economic growth and potential that Africa has due to its
demographic bonus and youthful potential investigating threats and opportunities that Africa
faces, the emerging trends in the African sojourn of sustainable development and the essence of
technology and knowledge transfer in the continent.

Threats and Opportunities to benefiting from the Demographic Bonus

Most African countries countries have the potential to take advantage of the demographic
dividend but a few factors pose a great obstacle to the sustainable economic growth, nonetheless
there are opportunities that arise especially for the youthful population that are the heart of the
demographic bonus in Africa:-

Flexibility of labor markets: A lack of flexible labor markets in Africa can be very dangerous
because then the African states will not be able to accommodate the burgeoning working-age
population. Flexibility means that employers are able to expand rapidly and contract their
businesses, to shift workers from one area of the business to another, and to raise and lower pay
more easily. Flexibility also means a workforce that is able to adapt its working patterns as the
business environment shifts. Flexibility can be difficult to sell to a workforce, as employers are
commonly thought to reap the benefits while employees bear the costs. However, this can create
an opportunity for the provision of adequate safety nets and generous re-training programs which
can help persuade workers and youth to become less risk-averse.

Infrastructural resources greatly determine the efficiency of a demographic bonus. For

instance health care systems, schooling, roads, transport, and a formal labor market with unions
and laws protecting both employees and employers all have to generally be effective enough to
absorb the demographic bonus. This offers an opportunity for youth to engage their Governments
and hold them accountable on key issues like dilapidating health care services, poor education
systems. This can be achieved through status reports of the fiscal and physical catastrophic
ramifications to the youth due to inefficient infrastructure.

In situations where the increase in the working-age population exceeds the job opportunities,
the results are costly. This may lead to rising unemployment which inadvertently leads to higher
crime rates and a sudden political instability. The African youth-who increasingly offering a
larger, healthier and better-educated workforce which is an infinite asset to African economies-
can lobby for funding from their governments for entrepreneurship opportunities and thus offer a
formidable alternative to the strained formal employment sector.

A series of prolonged and debilitating wars have occasioned Africa. Wars not only kill and
injure soldiers and civilians alike; they also destroy infrastructure and social structures, thus
destroying the foundation on which the demographic transition can be of benefit to the economy.

International Migration: This is a multifaceted and complicated Issue. Effective sanctions

should be introduced and implemented against those who organize and exploit undocumented
migration, and those who engage in human trafficking that is an acute abuse of human rights.
The plight of refugees, asylum-seekers and internally displaced persons should be addressed.
Brain drain has also been created especially in the education and health sectors due to migration
away from Africa – mainly to the USA, Europe and the Gulf States. Governments should
implement policies and programmes to encourage Diaspora communities to invest and support
development programmes in their countries of origin. Xenophobia and exploitation among
migrants in host countries is a result of International migration in Africa. Therefore, governments
are also urged to implement programmes to uphold the rights of internal and international
migrants and to implement comprehensive civic education programmes on the rights and
responsibilities of both migrants and their host communities.

The prevalence and virulence of infectious diseases is another major threat to development
from the demographic bonus. Despite some impressive health gains over the last century,
malaria, HIV/AIDS, and TB are just three of the big killers that are not yet successfully
controlled in Africa. Malaria and HIV alone currently account for 3-4 million of Sub-Saharan
Africa’s roughly 10 million annual deaths. HIV is particularly prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa,
where many countries have ten or more people living with HIV for each person who has already
died from the disease. Between 1985 and 1995, more than 4 million Sub-Saharan Africans died
of AIDS. By 2005 it was estimated that fifteen million more deaths had occurred, with 70% of
the world’s new infections and 80% of AIDS deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, in
addition to children and the elderly as dependents, many will be suffering the ravages of HIV in
adulthood. Heterosexual sex is the dominant means of transmission, and the majority of people
dying of AIDS are between 20 and 59 years. In other words, it is a disease that particularly hits
those who should be economically productive, and threatens not only health, but also the
economic stability and potential of a country. In order to curb the spread of HIV and mitigate its
effects, countries need to promote actions to achieve behavioral change in favor of abstinence,
practicing safe sex and empower women to make decisions that affect their reproductive health,
and train various categories of health workers in counseling, testing and post-test services.

Climate change constitutes a major threat for Africa: "The inter-tropical zones are going to be
the most affected by climate change. Because the region is very poor, its vulnerability to climate
change is even higher. Rain patterns have already changed, leading to people remarking that
"there is no rainy season anymore". Such changes damage agriculture. In addition, climate
change can increase deforestation, with enormous mitigation costs.

Africa possesses a significant Natural resource and energy potential. "Africa exploits less than
seven percent of its hydroelectric potential. The continent also disposes of a large energy
potential in wind, sun, biomass and other renewable resources practically untouched.

The Global Financial Crisis: A Threat to Africa’s Capacity to Cater for the Needy. Africa is
clearly vulnerable to the current financial crisis. This vulnerability is due to deceleration of
economic growth, deterioration of finances and high levels of poverty. Achieving the MDGs is
affected by indebtedness; forgoing schooling in light of economic hardship, particularly girls;
and, limited access to health services. Consequences of the global economic crisis on African
development or to the challenge of bewildered youth that continues to suffer educational deficits
and the consequences of atomized societies thus pointing to the powerful endogenous factors
contributing to slow economic growth.

Emerging Trends in Africa’s Development

Population and Poverty: Increased emphasis is being put to integrated population and
development planning which would compliment and resuscitate efforts at achieving significant
reduction in poverty, with respect to the demographic profile of most of the countries in the
continent. The disease burden, inadequate access to quality education and health services,
governance issues and unsustainable utilization of environmental resources are key causes of
poverty. However progress made thus far at poverty reduction in most African countries tends to
be diluted by continued high fertility rates. High population sizes and high dependency ratios in
the face of weak economic performance means widespread poverty. Efforts should be made to
ensure better management of human, material and financial resources, combined with
accountable and transparency in government hence giving a promising future in the trend
towards poverty reduction in Africa.

Population and Environment: To secure a better future the present has to be improved. The
social sector has suffered inadequate investment and thus the growing size of Africa’s population
has serious implications on the use of natural resource and improvement in the quality of life
now and for future generations. Action plans should strive to reduce unsustainable production
and consumption patterns while still ensuring that population, environmental issues and poverty
eradication are integrated into sustainable development.

Young people: Africa’s hope and human resource capital: It is notable that the demographic
bonus lies in the youth. More than 70 percent of Africa’s population is below 30 years of age.
Projections forecast a larger workforce and declining youth dependency burden in future. This
will create a window of opportunity (or Demographic Dividend) for increased production and
socio-economic development. This scenario bequeaths sustained efforts to address the needs of
young people, including provision of employment and jobs, reproductive health and sound
education that is relevant to the labor.

Urbanization of the population: Demographic pundits show that the urban population in Africa
will grow from 294 million to 742 million between 2000 and 2030. Despite the fact that urban
centers are notorious for high concentration of poverty, slum growth and considerable measure
of social disruption; the process of urbanization in Africa is inevitable and irreversible.
Challenges and opportunities for socio-cultural change emerge as a result of the rapidly growing
cities in Africa. Continuous interaction between urban and rural dwellers could contribute to a
diffusion of social change agents. Urban planning and the extension of s social and economic
services and infrastructure in urban centers and satellite towns should be the priority of African
policy makers. Rural-urban migration can also be reduced by promoting investment in rural areas
to create employment opportunities for the rural dwellers.

Resource Mobilization: Africa is embracing the dire need to boost coordination between all
stakeholders involved in Africa’s sustainable development agenda and implementation of the
MDGs. A few prerequisites are mandatory to ensure the above happens:-

• Mobilization of domestic and foreign resources in order to increase technical and

financial commitment for the implementation of the MDGs;
 • Encouraging support for population and reproductive health programmes from the
private sector;

• build institutional and human capacities for enhanced resource mobilization and contract
negotiation skills within government agencies;

• Put in place national strategies, including partnership and coordination mechanisms, for
better interaction between governments and all stakeholders, including NGOs and civil
society, youth organizations for internal and external resource mobilization and
monitoring of resource use in support of population and reproductive health issues.

Population Policies and Programmes: Much has been done in African countries to achieve the
objectives of MDGs in terms of policy formulation. However, there is a wide gap in most
countries between population-related policies and actual implementation, due to poor
commitment and weak implementation capacity. So far, the focus has been on development
outcomes, to the neglect of monitoring and evaluation of the implementation process. The trend
needs to be reversed and more attention should be paid to good governance in order to accelerate
the achievement of the objectives of MDGs.

Technology and Knowledge Transfer in Africa

The essence of Technology and knowledge transfer is to have the knowledge, skills and
technology transferred from centers of generation to areas of application such as industry and
business for social transformation. Prof Calestous Juma said that "What Africa needs is to invest
in scientific and entrepreneurial capacity to harness the knowledge and put it to commercial use."
This process offers a strategic development of human capital while still acting as a basis for
access to new ideas and knowledge in Africa. A few practices can be used in ensuring a
consistent and sustainable pool of knowledge base:-

• Knowledge should be pulled and not pushed where emphasis is placed on facilitating
African intellectuals to share their innovations and ideas with an aim to share their
 experiences to foster sustainable development in Africa. The African Diaspora can play a
key role in the above way of intellectual investment back to their countries.

• Engagement of top quality human capital will ensure that there is excellence in the
technology transfer hence improving the quality of all information passed to the youthful
population in the continent.

• Use of collaborative modalities which involves the use of mechanisms that promote
teamwork and partnerships to promote synergy between various knowledge bases of the
same/varying criterion. This ensures effectiveness in the training and exchange of
information as opposed to parallel methodologies competing to achieve the same goal.

• Development of solution based programmes are of vital importance because challenges

are multi-faceted and unique at the same time hence programmes there should be an
emphasis in Africa on programmes that quantify problems and offer a way out or an
efficient alternative.

• Build Capacity in the African Science Knowledge Base by increasing the relevance of
research and teaching

• Successful managed collaboration with the Private Sector and thus increasing their
innovative use of science by sponsoring projects of strategic importance and developing
future business leaders with experience of working with the knowledge base.

• Innovation Network should be promoted to bring out the ingenuity, creativity and
innovation of the youthful population in the continent.

• Technology Commercialization where the transfer of technology can bring profits and act
as a boost to an African countries’ economy.

• Internship programmes aimed at equipping the youthful population with hands on work is
necessary to give the youth the necessary experience needed in the working field and thus
facilitate their easy transition from learning institutions into work.

Below is an example of a formal technology transfer functional model by the British

Council and African Knowledge Transfer Partnerships
Formal education needs to be promulgated and made accessible to all Africans. Institutions of
Higher learning need to inculcate innovative and current educative programs, disciplines that are
relevant to the globalized world and thus enhance the global clout of African scholars making
them competitive in the global scene.

Conclusion and Recommendations

 The demographic bonus that Africa enjoys should be harnessed to exacerbate sustainable
development in Africa. Falling fertility rates can create conditions necessary for economic
growth due to the demographic bonus. However, reduced fertility by itself provides no
guarantee of prosperity. In order to capitalize on their demographic dividend, nations need
effective policies in key areas. African youth should join in catalyzing the demographic
transition. Improvements in public health, improved sanitation, immunization programs,
and antibiotics lead to declines in mortality that lead in turn to declines in fertility.
Furthermore, there are economic reasons to invest in health: Mounting research indicates
that a healthy population can abet economic growth and lessen poverty, contrary to the
longstanding belief that causation runs only from wealth to health.

African youth can also be involved in accelerating the transition through embracing effective
family planning which can accelerate the demographic transition by potentially enhancing
the economic benefits and lifting nations out of a cycle of poverty.

African youth can also be involved in exploiting the transition by forming intellectual knowledge
based groups that will have brave and incessant calls for a policy framework change
specifically in three areas listed below which are all key to fostering sustainable
development in Africa:-

i. Education: Transforming a youthful population into a productive work force

requires investment in education at all levels.

ii. Economic policy: A larger, better-educated work force will yield benefits only if
the extra workers can find jobs. Government policies that lead to stable
macroeconomic conditions are associated with the growth of productive and
rewarding jobs. Labor-market flexibility and openness to trade are also
important, but the relevant policy reforms must be undertaken gradually and in a
manner that protects those who lose out in such transitions.

iii. Good Governance: In many countries, necessary steps include strengthening the
rule of law, improving the efficiency of government operations, reducing
corruption, and guaranteeing contract enforcement.

• African youth have a tenet and myriad of policy framework intellectuals from the rising
youthful populations who can offer a paradigm shift to their Governments through active
meaningful inclusion in the policy formulation processes.
 • Youth can also champion solid institutions that can gain the confidence of the population
and markets alike and thus may help countries to reap the potential benefit created by
their demographic transition.

• African youth through education can understand the challenges and implications of
changing age structures which can be useful to partner with international organizations as
they work with governments and can enhance the ability of governments to choose
policies that will build on the economic potential inherent in demographic change.

• Governments on the other hand can assist the youth by giving priority to future
developments in population structure and institutional quality which includes research on
the emerging trends, infrastructural improvements and policy frameworks that are
conducive to economic growth because the effects of demographic change on economic
growth are sizeable, but contingent on good institutions.

• Governments should also ensure there is an efficient policy environments for various
aspects of growth in Africa and ensure they are mutually reinforcing, helping to create a
“virtuous cycle” of sustained growth. Conversely, without effective policies, countries
may miss opportunities for economic growth, or worse. They may risk high
unemployment, increased crime rates, and political instability all of which will negatively
affect African youth.

• Governments should also efficiently invest in institution capacity for development in

their countries. These may include the rule of the law, efficiency of the bureaucracy,
corruption, political freedom and expropriation risk, freedom of speech and political
representation, openness with specific regard to the political system, trade barriers, and
black market premium. All this will go a long way in ensuring the younger generation is
motivated to engage with Governments in the development process in Africa.

• Governments should also address essential questions shaping Africa's future: The
permanent crisis in education; the management of Africa’s strategic market of
agriculture; the use of the fiscal and savings resources of the region; and the quality of
social protection and assistance must be analyzed in depth to conceive sound public
policies that could transform the present momentum in the region into a steady force to
drive African development.

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