Professional Documents
Culture Documents
February 5, 2010
Rating Matrix
Rating : Strong Buy
Dish TV (DISHTV)
Target : Rs 50
Rs 40
Target Period : 12 months
Potential Upside : 25% Bracing for next leg of growth…
Dish TV is the first and largest DTH operator in India with a market
YoY Growth (%) share of over 35%. Riding on increasing penetration of cable, plugging
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E of revenue leakages by increasing digitisation and stabilising ARPU, the
Net Sales 79.0 45.6 29.4 26.7 topline is expected to grow at a CAGR of 33.6% over FY09-12E. The
EBITDA - - 194.6 66.7 company has got the funding in place to fuel the next phase of growth.
Net Profit - - - - The improving operational performance may lead to a potential re-
EPS (Rs) - - - - rating of the stock. We expect EPS to improve from Rs -7.0 in FY09 to Rs
-0.8 in FY12E and initiate coverage on DISH TV with STRONG BUY rating.
Stock Metrics
Bloomberg/Reuters Code DITV IN/DSTV.NS
Fast growing television industry – to aid DTH
Sensex 16163 The television industry has grown by leaps and bounds, recording 12.6%
Average volumes 758,241 CAGR from Rs 163 billion in 2005 to Rs 263 billion in 2009. It is expected
Market Cap (Rs crore) 4,254 to grow at 15.8% CAGR to Rs 473 billion by 2013E. Subscription revenue,
52 week H/L 60 / 20 that forms ~66.5% of total TV revenue, is expected to grow to Rs 317
Equity Capital (Rs crore) 106.3 billion by 2013 at a CAGR of 16.1%. Share of subscription revenue from
Promoter's Stake (%) 64.8 digital platforms would be higher at 64% on account of higher ARPUs due
FII Holding (%) 4.4 to zero underreporting. Implementation of digital platforms has been
DII Holding (%) 6.6 given the necessary thrust with Trai’s recommendation of 100%
mandatory cable digitisation within five years.
Price movement (Stock vs. Nifty) Dish TV – the first mover advantage
60 6,000 Dish TV introduced DTH in early 2005 and had a head start of ~1 million
50 5,000 subscribers from the second operator. Dish TV’s subscriber base is
expected to grow at 29.1% CAGR (FY09-12E) to 10.9 million, though the
40 4,000
market share is expected to fall from 38% to 29%. The company was able
30 3,000 to capture ~26% share to total industry additions in Q3FY09, despite the
20 2,000 entry of Rcom and Airtel and aggressive price promotion by Sun. We
10 1,000
expect Dish TV to retain its leadership and maintain share in net adds at
~25%, backed by the company’s strong distribution network.
0 0
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Valuations
Nifty (R.H.S) Price (L.H.S) The operational performance of the company has improved significantly
in the recent past. With subscriber base increasing at a handsome pace
and increasing proportion of old subscribers, the company is expected
Target Multiple to achieve PAT breakeven by FY2014E. Assuming revenue CAGR of
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E 16.9% over FY10E-20E and terminal growth of 4% thereon we have
Target PE - - - - arrived at a target price of Rs 50/share. The stock is currently trading at
EV/EBITDA -36.5 70.2 21.9 13.1 Rs 40. Our target price implies an upside potential of 25.0%. We are
EV/Subscriber 8,882 7,403 5,305 4,414
initiating coverage on Dish TV with a STRONG BUY rating.
Price/BV 9.9 3.5 2.7 2.7 Exhibit 1: Valuation matrix
(Year-end March) FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Net Sales 412.2 738.1 1,074.6 1,390.0 1,761.5
Analyst’s name EBITDA (209.2) (123.3) 75.0 221.0 368.5
Karan Mittal Net Profit (Rs crore) (414.1) (480.7) (266.9) (200.1) (89.0)
karan.mittal@icicisecurities.com EPS (Rs) (9.7) (7.0) (2.5) (1.9) (0.8)
P/E (x) - - - - -
Naval Seth
Price / Book (x) 40.0 7.9 2.8 2.2 2.2
naval.seth@icicisecurities.com
EV/EBITDA (x) (10.6) (31.0) 56.0 17.1 10.2
EV/Subscriber (x) 7,330 7,527 5,908 4,138 3,440
RoE (%) (967.1) (138.1) (17.5) (10.3) (4.6)
RoCE (%) (62.3) (23.5) (8.2) (4.5) (1.3)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Investment Rationale
The television industry dominates the largest share of the Indian media
and entertainment industry. The industry dynamics have changed
drastically in the last decade and a half. Before this television was a
monopoly of a few public sector broadcasters.
Exhibit 3: Indian media and entertainment industry break-up (Rs 628 billion for 2009P)
Others
Music 9%
Radio 1%
1%
The television industry dominates the largest share
Film Television
of the Indian media and entertainment industry
17% 43%
forming about 43%
Print
29%
Source: FICCI report 2009, ICICIdirect.com Research
500 473
399
400 342 156
Unlike the print industry, subscription revenue is 296 132
higher than the advertisement revenue in the 300 263
Rs billion
241 113
television industry. Out of the total television 211 97
163 183 88
industry revenue of 262.7 billion in 2009, 200 83
71 317
52 61 267
subscription revenue is expected to have 229
100 175 199
contributed Rs 174.5 billion 122 140 158
111
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
250 70%
88
No. of household in million
91 89 65%
200 96 94
103 100
104 63% 64% 60%
106 105 60% 62%
150 59% 55%
53% 56%
Total 59% of India’s total population has access to 51% 54%
49%
TV while cable television reaches over 45% of the 50%
100 142 148 152 156
population. Currently, about 110 million households 122 129 136
103 110 116 45%
have access to cable television up from just 61
million in 2005 50 40%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
TV HH Non-TV HH TV as % of total HH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
-40 0%
70
58
60
47
50
40
In USD
Zealand
Singapore
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Thailand
China
New
In addition to one of the lowest ARPUs in the world, one of the major
problems faced by the broadcasters is the revenue leakages in the last
mile or under reporting of the subscriber base by cable distributors. This
has resulted in grossly inequitable distribution of subscription revenue in
favour of Local Cable operators (LCO).
According to KPMG-FICCI report, it is estimated that the LCO keeps 79%
of the total subscription revenues of the industry and leaves just about
17% for the broadcasters. The residual 4% is retained by the Multi
System Operator (MSO).
This combination of low ARPU and chronic under-declaration of
subscriber base by LCOs has significantly constrained the growth of
The combination of low ARPU and chronic under- subscription revenue for broadcasters. At the same time, it is an excellent
declaration of subscriber base by LCOs has opportunity for digital delivery platforms to capitalise on this problem and
significantly constrained the growth of subscription address the issue of under-reporting, thereby increasing transparency in
revenue for broadcasters. At the same time, it is an the distribution system.
excellent opportunity for digital delivery platforms to
Exhibit 9: Simulated revenue flow for a large LCO (per month)
capitalise on this problem and address the issue of
Current Scenario Optimized Scenario Increase/month
under-reporting, thereby increasing transparency in
Number of subscribers 1,500 1,500
the distribution system Declared 375 25% 1,500 100%
Undeclared 1,125 75% 0 0%
competition wherein players have started to highly subsidise the set top
boxes.
Exhibit 10: DTH gaining foothold in TV households
2%
100% 1% 4% 7%
9% 12% 13% 13% 12%
35% 56%
80% 27%
50
45 CAGR 22.5% (CY09-13E) 44
40
40
35
Subscriber in Million
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Aug-05
Dec-05
Aug-06
Dec-06
Aug-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Dec-08
Dish TV Industry
40 70%
35 59% 60%
30 50%
Dish TV, being a market leader, would be a key 25
In Million
and 4800 dealers across 6600 towns as of June 2009. The company also
has 350 customer care centres and service franchisees providing
installation and after sale-services as of March 2009.
Exhibit 15: DTH industry - Competitive landscape
Subs (Mn)* Channel Services Content Strategy Schemes
Dish TV 6.46 250 40 All major entertainment & Titanium - Rs 312
niche regional channels to Gold - Rs 210
provide unparalleled content. Silver - Rs 125
Give the subscriber maximum South gold - Rs 210
entertainment at the best value
tailor made add-on packages to
enhance ARPU
Tata Sky 3.8 173+ 19 All major entertainment Annual Mega pack -
channels + value added Rs 5500
services eg. VAS (showcase), South Jumbo pack -
DVR, la-carte Top up Rs 3410
Kid special pack - Rs
2475
Super saver pack -
Rs 2000
Sun Direct 5.6 170+ 29 Provide basic & regional Jumbo Pack - Rs 300
channels at a low price to Shine pack - Rs 525
capture the low end customer. for 4 months
English & other channels for Metro pack - Rs 1490
evolved customer are very for 6 months
expensive
Big TV 1.1 150+ 54 Offers more content at Platinum - Rs 5390
acquisition & has different Diamond Rs - 4590
reduced packs on renewal Diamond Rs - 3090
Focusing on VAS Gold - Rs 1890
Digital TV 1.8 172+ 15 Carries world space satellite Ultra Pack- Rs 4350
Radio Mega Pack - Rs 3850
Variety of Active services Economy pack- Rs
3450
170
160
164
150 158 142 139
With intense competition setting in, all DTH players 140 150 137
have flooded the market with various offers. 142 135
130 132
In Rs
With intense competition setting in, all DTH players have flooded the
market with various offers. Consequently, the ARPU in the industry has
been on a continuous downtrend. ARPU for Dish TV fell to Rs 135 in
Q3FY10 from Rs 164 in Q1FY09. At the same time, attractive offers have
also given a push to the demand and the industry has been adding over 8
million subscribers per annum. On the back of attractive schemes, the
company successfully added ~0.4 million and 0.6 million subscribers
during Q2FY10 and Q3FY10, respectively.
Exhibit 17: ARPU assumptions
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Old Subscriber (Mn) 3.0 5.1 7.1 9.1
New Subscriber (mn) 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8
We do not expect the ARPU to fall steeply. ARPU for
FY11E is expected to be marginally lower than that Old Subscriber ARPU (Rs) 203 194 174 170
in FY10. We expect the ARPU to stabilise at current Revenue from Old Subs (Rs Crore) 606.3 939.3 1,270.2 1,652.3
levels in the near term. However, in the medium to
long term we think it is likely that ARPUs may pick New Subscriber ARPU (Rs) 83 42 42 40
up Revenue from New Subscriber (Rs Crore) 153.9 101.8 101.8 91.2
Surplus/(Deficit) 382.8
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
140 60%
120 56.5% 55.5% 43.8% 50%
43.3% 43.2%
100 39.8%
40%
Rs crore
Financials
Robust revenue growth
The company reported a topline of Rs 412.2 crore and Rs 738.1 crore in
FY08 and FY09, respectively. The topline has grown at a CAGR (FY07-
FY09) of 96.3%, primarily on the back of a growing subscriber base,
which would have grown from 1.8 million subscribers in FY07 to
approximately 7.1 million in FY10E (6.5 million by the end of Q3FY10) at a
CAGR of 57.2%. We expect the topline to grow at a robust pace of 45.6%
and 29.4% in FY10E and FY11E, respectively. This implies healthy
revenue CAGR (FY09-FY12E) of 33.6% to Rs 1761.5 crore, backed by
strong subscriber addition of about 3.8 million in the next two years.
Exhibit 22: Revenue growth
FY09- FY12E CAGR of
2000 33.6% 1761.5 140
115.1 120
1500 1390.0
100
We expect the topline to grow at a healthy CAGR 79.0 1074.6
Rs crore
%
by strong subscriber addition of about 3.8 million in 738.1 45.6 60
the next two years 412.2 29.4 26.7
500 40
191.6
20
0 0
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
500 40.0
369
15.9
20.0
300 7.0
221 20.9
0.0
-16.7 75
Various cost rationalisation measures are expected 100 -20.0
Rs crore
Declining programming and other cost and selling and distribution cost
are the primary factors for improving EBITDA margin. The company has
renegotiated with all major broadcasters for a fixed content fee as
opposed to subscriber linked fees. The content cost was as high as 88.0%
of revenue in FY07, which has come down to 52.8% in FY09. With the
new policy coming into operation, we expect the content cost to further
come down to 45.0% in FY10E and ~40.5% in FY12E. Similarly, the
selling and distribution expense has come down from 46.9% of revenue
in FY07 to 29.3% in FY09. We expect this to come down to 12.0% by
FY12E.
These coupled with various other cost rationalisation measures are
expected to drive the EBITDA margin from -16.7% in FY09 to 20.9% in
FY12E.
Exhibit 24: Contributors to expanding EBITDA margin
%
FY12E. Similarly, the selling and distribution expense 300 29.3 40
253 202 212
has come down from 46.9% of revenue in FY07 to 200 182 18.9
216 20
29.3% in FY09. We expect this to come down to 100 203 12.0
14.5
12.0% by FY12E 0 0
FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Valuations
DCF-based target price of Rs 50/share
Assuming revenue CAGR of 16.9% over FY10E–FY20E and terminal
growth of 4% thereon, we have arrived at a target price of Rs 50/share.
Comparison to peers is not possible due to Dish’s loss making status,
highly subsidised subscriber acquisition model and long pay back period.
The stock is currently trading at Rs 40. Our target price implies an upside
potential of 25.0%. We are initiating coverage on Dish TV with a STRONG
BUY rating.
Growth Rate %
3.50% 59 52 47 42 38
Terminal
4.00% 63 56 50 45 40
4.50% 67 59 53 47 42
5.00% 72 64 57 50 45
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Balance Sheet
(Rs Crore)
(Year-end March) FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Liabilities
Equity Share Capital 42.8 68.7 106.3 106.3 106.3
Reserves & Surplus - 279.2 1,416.3 1,830.8 1,830.8
Secured Loans 68.4 269.7 950.0 750.0 550.0
Unsecured Loans 476.1 879.5 250.0 150.0 100.0
Current Liabilities & Provisions 1,170.6 1,639.1 1,764.3 2,126.8 2,329.5
Others 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Total Liabilities 1,758.7 3,136.8 4,487.5 4,964.6 4,917.3
Assets
Gross Block 911.9 1,421.1 1,835.8 2,316.5 2,753.6
Less Accumulated Depreciation 231.4 460.0 709.0 1,043.5 1,432.3
Net Block 680.6 961.1 1,126.8 1,273.0 1,321.3
Capital WIP 279.3 373.4 223.4 123.4 53.4
Total Fixed Assets 959.9 1,334.5 1,350.2 1,396.4 1,374.7
Cash Flow from Investing Activities (288.5) (603.4) (315.3) (394.4) (380.8)
Op bal Cash & Cash equivalents 12.8 51.1 80.5 1,251.0 1,382.6
Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 51.1 80.5 1,251.0 1,382.6 1,150.1
Ratios
(Year-end March) FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (9.7) (7.0) (2.5) (1.9) (0.8)
Cash EPS (6.0) (3.7) 0.3 1.4 2.9
Book Value 1.0 5.1 14.3 18.2 18.2
Operating Profit Per Share (4.9) (1.8) 0.7 2.1 3.5
Operating Ratios
Operating Margin (%) (50.7) (16.7) 7.0 15.9 20.9
Net Profit Margin (%) (100.5) (65.1) (24.8) (14.4) (5.1)
Return Ratios
RoE (%) (967.1) (138.1) (17.5) (10.3) (4.6)
RoCE (%) (62.3) (23.5) (8.2) (4.5) (1.3)
Valuation Ratios
EV/EBITDA - - 56.0 17.1 10.2
PE - - - - -
EV/Sales 5.4 5.2 3.9 2.7 2.1
Sales to Equity 9.6 10.7 10.1 13.1 16.6
Market Cap to sales 4.2 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.4
Price to Book Value 40.0 7.9 2.8 2.2 2.2
EV/Subscriber (x) 7,330 7,527 5,908 4,138 3,440
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.8
Debtors Turnover Ratio 10.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9
Creditors Turnover Ratio 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.4
Cash to Absolute Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.5
Solvency Ratios
Debt/Equity 12.7 3.3 0.8 0.5 0.3
Current Ratio 0.6 1.0 3.5 2.6 3.0
Quick Ratio 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.3
RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is 2 years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: 20% or more;
Buy: Between 10% and 20%;
Add: Up to 10%;
Reduce: Up to -10%
Sell: -10% or more;
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Karan Mittal MBA; Naval Seth MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
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view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
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