Market Report

March 23, 2011

U.S.D.A. World Market
World Market Price This week Last week 1 Year Ago 2010 Loan WMP and Loan Rates
LDP
Value Factors 03/23/10 03/16/10 03/24/10 Factors ‘10 crop L/G M/G
Long Grain To be 19.22 16.52 00.00 9.91 Yield 52.78/14.31 61.03/8.69
Medium Grain issued 18.89 16.23 00.00 9.65 WMP 12.09 12.71
Short Grain Mar. 23 18.89 16.23 00.00 9.65 Loan 6.23 6.50
Brokens 8:30am 13.60 11.37 - 7.01 Difference (5.76) (6.21)

Posting: (March/April/May Shipment)

Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.00 per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.50 per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $560.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $24.50 per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $22.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $550.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) #1/4 Parb no quote per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $625.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $290.00 per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA
Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs) #4/20/hm $21.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $20.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled #2/4% no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Package Quality
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken (0.8% damage) Pkg. Parb. $28.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $22.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $31.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. M/G $35.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
California - Medium Grain
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $835.00 per mt sacked containerized FOB Mill
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $875.00 per mt sacked containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) #1/7% $875.00 per mt sacked in 30kg bags FOB vessel
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) #3 Brown $810.00 per mt in totes containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #1 58/69 $550.00 per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37-$38 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $15.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled) contracts M/A $13.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
U.S. California Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $19.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers contracts M/A $14.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

March 23, 2011 - Page 1 of 4

Far East Report
SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS
In Thailand, the market is relatively quiet with the
main focus on short covering against the three most recent
tender awards with Iraq, totaling 320,000 mt since the first
of the calendar year. Those FOB sales prices ranged $505-
490 per mt, and the market is now openly quoted at $480-
485 and slightly biddable.
Also, of particular note, is the recent renewed interest,
albeit somewhat limited, in parboil out of Nigeria, following a bit of
a drought on that biz. We offer up two reasons the Nigerians were
absent the market for a while:
1- They viewed the market as soft in anticipation of lower prices,
which has come true
2- And, they opted for cheaper and what some consider
better quality parboil out of Brazil.
The last of the Indonesian shipments are finishing as
those were for March guaranteed arrival, slightly short of
the original sales (300-320,000 vs. 380,000 mt).
With Thai second crop just right around the corner, we
look for further declines in the market.
In Vietnam, Vinafood II has been loading a multitude
of vessels against old BULOG contracts (most recently a
sale of 400,000 mt) in an effort to finish their shipments
which need to arrive in March as well. We estimate their total
shipments dating back to the third quarter of 2010 to be around 1.5
MMT, bringing total Indonesian purchases close to 1.9 MMT, almost
double their original forecast. This should provide them with more
than adequate buffer stocks for the foreseeable future. This will likely
take them out of the market for the next six months, or new crop for
Thailand.
Now the market focus is keenly on The Philippines,
as it has been. I must say, the NFA, in sharp contrast
to the previous administration, is playing the market
in a much more disciplined and shrewd manner versus
the corrupt reckless policy of their predecessors...”a bit of a cat and
mouse game”, if you will...and rather cleaver I might add. Many
industry experts, yours truly included, believe the press releases up
to this point sighting reduced imports are understated. Whereas in
no way will they come close to equaling last year’s imprudent and
excessive purchases, I do believe they will likely buy more than they
are currently indicating. I think it will be closer to 1.4 MMT versus
some recent print media reports that show as little as 860,000 mt, of
which 600,000 mt will be licensed out to privates March 23. Also,
they have wisely been patient, by waiting on the main season harvest
to fully complete in Vietnam, Indonesia get out of the way, and allow
for the Thai second crop to come into play. We think it is “game
on” before too much longer...in all likelihood within the next week
or so. Furthermore, I find it difficult to see the privates capable of
competing with Vinafood, given the state owned agency pays no
import duty. I do see two exceptions whereby that comes to play...
either waive the duty, or somehow allow the privates to compete for
political purposes...we shall see.
Thailand Exports
Jan. 1 - Mar. 3, 2011: 2,014,643 mt
Jan. 1 - Mar. 3, 2010: 1,505,409 mt
Jan. 1 - Mar. 6, 2009: 1,440,116 mt
INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND BANGLADESH
In India, The Hindu newspaper reported on Monday
that the Director General of Foreign Trade, which falls
under the auspices of the Ministry of Commerce and Trade has issue
a release that allows for certain conditional exceptions for the export
of non-Basmati rice. The varieties listed were “Matta”, “Sona Masuri”,
and “Ponni”. The rice must be shipped between now and September
30, 2011 and should be in 10 kg packages. The total quantity listed
in the article was 150,000 mt, which is by historical
Indian export standards inconsequential. However, one
has to wonder if this may lead to additional exceptions,
i.e. like the ones previously allowed for core markets like
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal...most interesting to
say the least...market changer longer term...that remains
to be seen.
Also, of particular note is the Bangladesh retender
of package 4 and 5. This consists of 50,000 mt of non-
Basmati parboil. The $64,000 question is ...will the Indians
participate here?...or will it go to Thailand? Pakistan is not
a likely option as their parboil prices are surprisingly high.
In Pakistan, not much new to report here as prices are
slightly softer on the white coarse rice but uncompetitively
high on parboil. IRRI-6 25% is quoted at $415 per mt FOB
Karachi, and around $470-475 for 5%. Parboil 5% ranges $530-540.
Stay tuned, as this area may become very interesting on both the
supply and demand side of the equation.

OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Uru. Arg. Brazil
100%B $500.00 5% $450.00 Export ban, MEP $900
5% $480.00 5% N/A 5% $470.00 $525.00 $525.00
10% $475.00 10% $440.00 10% N/A 10% no quote $515.00 $515.00
15% $470.00 15% $430.00 15% N/A 15% no quote no quote no quote
25% $450.00 25% $415.00 25% N/A 25% $415.00
Parb. 5% N/A Parb 5% $520.00 $505.00
Brokens $395.00 Brokens $390.00 Var. 1121 $1350 Parb 15%* $490.00
Parb. 100B sorted $505.00 MEP-5% $490.00 Basmati Brokens $385.00 Paddy
Thai Hom Mali $935.00 MEP-25% $470.00 Traditional $1800 Basmati $330.00
Frag. Brokens $410.00 Pusa $1300 S. Kernal $1325.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port *Bangladesh Specs.

Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

March 23, 2011 - Page 2 of 4

 CBOT Rough Rice Futures (03/21/11 Volume: 1,311 Open Interest: 24,605)
Contract Tuesday’s Close Net Change From Prices
Month Price Monday Last Report One Year Ago 03/23/10
‘11 May $13.855 UP 0.020 UP 0.980 ‘10 May $12.745
‘11 Jul $14.160 UP 0.020 UP 0.995 ‘10 Jul $13.040
‘11 Sep $14.810 UP 0.020 UP 0.940 ‘10 Sep $12.720
‘11 Nov $15.085 UP 0.020 UP 0.930 ‘10 Nov $12.890
‘12 Jan $15.330 UP 0.020 UP 0.910 ‘11 Jan $13.195
‘12 Mar $15.590 UP 0.020 UP 0.865 ‘11 Mar $13.505

U.S. Paddy Market Report California - 2010 Calrose M/G is bid at $14.00 with last trades $14.55 per cwt
over loan. 2011 new crop is bid at $13.00 with last trades at $13.00 - $13.50
Texas - Buyers’ price ideas are lower this week ranging $4.00 - $5.00 per cwt per cwt over loan.
over loan. Planting of new crop continues.
Louisiana - Long grain bids are $11.25 - $11.50 per cwt FOB farm with a Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop)
small amount of trading reported. Medium grain new crop is still bid at Texas Louisianna Mid-South California
$14.50 per cwt FOB farm. Planting of new crop continues. Long grain 10.50-11.50 11.50 $10.25b/10.75a *
Mid South - Bids for long grain are softer at $11.25 per cwt delivered mill/ Med Grain * 14.50b new crop $17.25 $21.05
river for May shipment while sellers’ price ideas are $11.75 per cwt loaded L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
barge. Planting is just beginning. * - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.

U.S. Report
U.S. GULF & FUTURES MARKETS
I am going to try and do my very best to be less negative within
the confounds of what these market conditions will afford me.
First of all, thanks to two successive USDA Public Law 480 tenders
(totaling approximately 35,000 mt), the mills in Louisiana are back
up and running through the balance of March and well into April.
I’m sorry to say, that’s about where the good news starts and stops.
As for the balance of this crop, we face a very challenging task
to market what is for the most part the worse crop in over 50 years.
Now, one should bear in mind that the bulk of the rice and the
majority of the yield and quality issues reside in the mid South
(N. La., Ark., Miss., and MO.), whereas the crops in Texas and
S.W. did not suffer near the damage or loss of yield....mind you,
they were not excellent crops, more like average, or thereabouts.
However, most of that rice is spoken for, for the most part by the
mills, or soon will be.
The $64,000 question everyone is asking is how large will the
reduction in acreage be for long grain in the South, due to better
opportunities with other soft commodities. My guess is around
25-30%, and maybe larger in parts of the mid South where flex
acreage will come into play and cotton and other crops will be
planted. But, if one figures a normal yielding crop, better quality,
and a large carryover (almost 2 MMT according to USDA’s latest),
then production and stocks will not likely decrease significantly...
maybe 5-10%, if that. There will be no shortage, in our view.
Following the collapse of the previous few weeks, futures rallied
almost $1.00 on fears that Japan will not only have to increase
their imports, but will lose valuable farmland due to salt intrusion.
Neither will prove to be true in our view. Granted, there will be
relief shipments of rice, but not an inordinate import campaign.
As regards our neighbors to the South, our latest numbers
reflect crops as follows:
1- Brazil -- 13 MMT +
2- ARG. -- 1.7 MMT
3- URU. -- 1.5 MMT
That adds up to be a lot of exportable surplus of premium
quality with which to contend.
And on that note, that sums up my report for this segment.
CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA, JAPAN & THE “MED”
First of all, let me extend, on behalf of the entire
rice industry and all Americans our heartfelt grief
for our Japanese friends...help is coming, and we will
do more than our part, rest assured of that.
On the business side of the equation, there is no
change in the California market in general, as mills continue
deliveries to the port against old MA business for Japan, as well
as commercial sales to Libya. At present, we have no reason
to believe either business will be impaired by the inordinate
situation at those destinations...let us pray!
I think I will leave it with a couple of brief comments about
the market as mills are very busy, prices remain firm, and no
new cash paddy trades reported.
With that, I now close my comments

Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

March 23, 2011 - Page 3 of 4

Upcoming Tenders: USDA Export Sales Highlights
(March 4 - 10, 2011)
Mar. 27 Bangladesh retender for package 4 & 5 to buy 50,000mt of
non-basmati parboiled rice. Sales

Net sales of 62,200 MT were down 15 percent from the

Tenders Results:
Mar. 16 KCCO MR-22 Inv. 031 bought:
5000mt #2/7, Parboiled at $678.35 per mt FAS Lake Charles
4370mt #3/15, L/G at $451.50-452.60 per mt FAS Lake Charles
830mt #2/7, L/G at $476.41 per mt FAS Lake Charles
580mt #5/20, at $441.80 per mt FAS Lake Charles
Exports
previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Increases were reported for:
Mexico (23,500 MT)
Liberia (11,900 MT)
Belgium (4,000 MT)
Nicaragua (3,700 MT)
Jamaica (3,600 MT)

Exports of 56,600 MT were down 17 percent from the

previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.
The primary destinations were :
Mexico (25,000 MT)
Turkey (7,000 MT)
Saudi Arabia (4,700 MT)
Canada (4,300 MT)
Liberia (4,100 MT)
Source: USDA

Upcoming Events:
Mar. 28-30, 2011 Rice Trade Outlook 2011 conference
for more info: www.ricetrade.agraevents.com

June 7-9, 2011 TRT Americas Conference 2011

Hotel Riu Plaza Panama, Panama City, Panama
For more info go to: http://trtamericas.com/

June 26-30, 2011 USA Rice Millers’ Association Convention

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (virtually no spot supply available for sale in South, except hulls)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: Not Available ($105) Not Available ($105) Not Available ($110) 100
Mill Feed: Not Available ($40) Not Available ($40) Not Available ($40)
Ground Hulls: 5-7 2-5 15
Unground Hulls: 5-7 2-5 12 10 - 13

Creed Rice Co. Inc.  800 Wilcrest Suite 200  Houston, Texas 77042  USA
Ph 1.713.782.3260  Fax 1.713.782.4671  www.creedrice.com  email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net
Brokers • Consultants • Market Reports • Arbitrators
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

March 23, 2011 - Page 4 of 4