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    HisWellness.com -I want to say a word about the results.You see the growth rate projected over the next 40 years for China, India, United States and Japan, you see how China and India are growing much faster and have been growing much faster than those two countries, and how the United States continues to grow at a relatively rapid rate partly because its demographics is favorable. Japan decelerates because it has very unfavorable demographics. There are other factors at play here. And China and India in these projections continue to grow rapidly but over time, their growth rates converge to those of the advanced countries so though India remains much faster growing even in 2050.

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    HisWellness.com -I want to say a word about the results.You see the growth rate projected over the next 40 years for China, India, United States and Japan, you see how China and India are growing much faster and have been growing much faster than those two countries, and how the United States continues to grow at a relatively rapid rate partly because its demographics is favorable. Japan decelerates because it has very unfavorable demographics. There are other factors at play here. And China and India in these projections continue to grow rapidly but over time, their growth rates converge to those of the advanced countries so though India remains much faster growing even in 2050.

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    70 views20 pages

    The World Order Carnegie Endowment - Slides - THE G-20 IN 2050: POLICY CONSEQUENCES OF LONG-TERM GROWTH DYNAMICS

    Uploaded by

    HisWellness
    HisWellness.com -I want to say a word about the results.You see the growth rate projected over the next 40 years for China, India, United States and Japan, you see how China and India are growing much faster and have been growing much faster than those two countries, and how the United States continues to grow at a relatively rapid rate partly because its demographics is favorable. Japan decelerates because it has very unfavorable demographics. There are other factors at play here. And China and India in these projections continue to grow rapidly but over time, their growth rates converge to those of the advanced countries so though India remains much faster growing even in 2050.

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    of 20

    The World Order in 2050

    Uri Dadush, Bennett Stancil, Shimelse Ali

    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


    February 23, 2010
    Key Messages
    • In 2050, four of the top six economic
    powers will be emerging countries
    • Developed countries will remain far richer
    • World trade relations will be transformed
    • Major domestic and international reforms
    are needed
    • Big risks on the downside

    2
    Emerging Markets Growing Rapidly
    Real GDP Growth
    China India United States Japan

    14

    12

    10

    -2

    -4

    -6
    2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
    Actual Projected 3
    Convergence Conditions Vary
    United Kingdom
    Canada
    Germany
    Australia
    Japan
    France
    Korea, Rep.
    Italy
    Saudi Arabia
    South Africa
    Mexico
    Turkey
    China
    Russian Federation
    Argentina
    Brazil
    Ghana
    Indonesia
    India
    Kenya
    Ethiopia
    Nigeria

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    4
    Source: World Bank World Development Indicators (2009), authors' calculation.
    China and India Will Join U.S. as Global Leaders

    Real U.S. Dollar GDP


    2005 U.S. dollars,
    United States China India
    trillions
    50

    45

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    0
    2010 2030 2050

    5
    The Trend is Even More Pronounced in PPP Terms

    PPP GDP
    2005 PPP dollars,
    United States China India
    trillions
    80

    70

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0
    2010 2030 2050

    6
    Emerging Markets Surpass Advanced Economies

    U.S. Dollar GDP


    2005 U.S. dollars,
    Advanced Economies Emerging Economies
    trillions
    100

    90

    80

    70

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0
    2010 2050

    7
    Working Age Population in G20 Emerging Markets
    Growing
    Size of the G20 Working Age Population
    People, aged 15-59,
    millions Advanced Economies Emerging Economies

    2,500

    2,000

    1,500

    1,000

    500

    0
    2010 2050

    8
    Source: US Census International Database (2009).
    …and Even Faster in Other Developing Countries

    Size of the World Working Age Population


    People, aged 15-59,
    millions More Developed Regions Less Developed Regions

    5,000

    4,500

    4,000

    3,500

    3,000

    2,500

    2,000

    1,500

    1,000

    500

    0
    2010 2050
    9
    Source: US Census International Database (2009).
    Europe in a World of Giants
    U.S. Dollar GDP
    2005 U.S.
    dollars, trillions China United States Germany United Kingdom EU

    50

    45

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    0
    2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    10
    Advanced Economies Remain Much Wealthier
    Per Capita Income

    2005 U.S. dollars Advanced Economies Emerging Economies

    90000

    80000

    70000

    60000

    50000

    40000

    30000

    20000

    10000

    0
    2010 2030 2050

    11
    Absolute Poverty Declines
    Poverty Rates
    Percent of population living
    on less than $1.25/day India Sub-Saharan Africa

    50

    45

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    0
    2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
    Estimated Projected
    12
    A Large Portion of the Global Middle and Rich Class
    Will Reside in Developing Countries

    13
    Developing Countries Will Account for the Larger
    Portion of World Trade

    Share of World Exports

    2006 2050
    14
    Source: UN Comtrade.
    Developing Countries Will be at the Center of
    World Trade Relations
    Top Five Trading Partners
    (percent of world trade)
    2006 2050

    China-Asia Pacific
    Intra-EU
    Developing

    U.S.-Other
    Intra- EU
    Industralized

    EU-Other China-Other
    Industralized Industralized

    EU-U.S. China-U.S.

    U.S.-Latin
    China-EU
    America

    0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

    15
    Source: UN Comtrade.
    U.S. Exports Reoriented

    16
    Source: UN Comtrade.
    Africa: Competitive Manufacturer?

    Per Capita Income


    2005 U.S. dollars Sub-Saharan Africa China India

    35000

    30000

    25000

    20000

    15000

    10000

    5000

    0
    2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    17
    Potential May not be Realized: Downside Risks

    • Geopolitical Strife

    • Financial Crisis and Depression

    • Protectionism

    • Climate Change

    18
    Climate Change
    Projected Atmospheric Carbon Concentrations
    Parts per million and Estimated Global Temperature Increase
    800
    > 5°C
    750

    700
    > 4°C
    650

    600
    > 3°C
    550

    500
    > 2°C
    450

    400

    350

    300
    2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006).


    19
    Risks Have Bigger Effect on Emerging Economies
    Projected Annual Real Growth Rates
    2010-2050
    Baseline Low-Case

    0
    United States Germany China India Sub-Saharan Africa
    20

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