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Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar yesterday said global warming would have an adverse impact on India’s wheat
bowl -primarily the states of Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In reply to a special discussion on the
nation’s drought and flood situation, Pawar in the Lok Sabha accused the Prime Minister’s Office of overseeing the adverse
effects of global warming to our wheat bowl. Except the paddy crop, whose area of cultivation had fallen drastically, the
figures for rest of the major crops in the country were high as compared to the corresponding period last year. He said
wheat cultivation of 252 lakh tonnes this year had crossed all-time records ever since the Independence, Pawar said.
Similarly, Pawar said, the rice harvest of 319 lakh tonnes was also unprecedented. However, he conceded that a reduction
of over 6 million hectares of land under paddy cultivation was a matter of concern, adding that measures would be taken to
tackle the problem. The minister said there was no need to be panicky the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted
101 per cent rain in August as against 82 per cent in July. Pawar said further course of action would be decided after
August only. The minister said the country was well stocked up with wheat and rice to last 13 months. There was also a
back up of 15 lakh tonnes seeds for alternative cropping and all states had funds earmarked for them under the National
Agricultural Development Scheme. Rajiv Ranjan Singh Lalan of the JD(U), during the discussion, sought an economic
package for drought-hit farmers and setting up of task force on irrigation. He demanded joint action by the Agriculture
Ministry and Power and Water Resources Ministries. While praising food-for-work schemes in villages, he stressed upon the
need for co-ordination between the Centre and states.
Inflation verges on 8%
Earlier this week, Finance Minister P Chidambaram described inflation as the biggest challenge his government faced. A
sense of just how big the challenge really is can be had from the latest inflation data that show the wholesale price index-
based annual inflation rate moved up to an uncomfortable 7.83 per cent for the week ended May 3, an over 42-month high.
During the week, prices of items like edible oils, cement and iron and steel (which have seen government intervention)
declined, but its impact on the index was negated by an across-the-board increase in prices of food, manufactured products
and mineral oils (see chart). As disconcerting, especially for the policy establishment, is the revision to the inflation number
for the week ended March 8, 2008. From the earlier reported 5.92 per cent, the final inflation number announced today was
7.78 per cent, an astounding 186 basis points revision. The revision implies that inflation has consistently been on the
higher side than reported. Economists said as much, with Saugata Bhattacharya, vice-president, Axis Bank, saying the
inflation rate would have been well over 8 per cent. "At this rate of revision, it is likely that the actual inflation rate in mid-
March would have been 8.5 to 9 per cent, up from the provisional 7 to 7.44 per cent," he said. With further revisions
expected for the remaining three weeks of March, not only will headline inflation average be higher for 2007-08, but it will
also impact the numbers next year when the country will have slipped into election mode. For the time being, inflation is
not expected to moderate as commodity prices remain high and no significant upside seen in the supply side. "Pressure on
inflation will continue in coming weeks. The rate will clearly remain above 7.5 per cent for the next 2-3 months," said
Dharmakirti Joshi, principal economist, Crisil. An analysis by Business Standard suggests that for the week ended May 10,
for which data will be released next Friday, the inflation rate will range between 7.67 per cent and 8.05 per cent, depending
on how the index moves. Reacting to the data, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said he expected inflation would moderate.
"We are waiting for steel and cement price cuts to come into force. You have to be patient," he told reporters today, adding
the government reserved the right to take more administrative measures. The spot rupee reached a fresh 13-month low of
42.90 against the dollar following heavy purchase of the US currency by oil companies and banks but recovered to close at
42.51 in a volatile trading session. The rupee opened stronger at 42.60 after closing at 42.75 against the dollar on
Thursday due to strong sentiments in the global equity markets, dealers said. At these levels, exporters also started selling
dollars, fearing an appreciation and the spot rupee reached an intra-day high of 42.30 against the dollar. Oil importers then
rushed to buy dollars to make import payments.
3 states face food crisis over violence
The terrorist violence forcing the suspension of all operations of Northeast Frontier Railway on the Lumding-Badarpur
section has stalled the ongoing drive of pre-monsoon storage of foodgrains in the states of Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur,
besides southern Assam. The Northeast Frontier Railway sources said here on Saturday that normally they carry an average
of 50,000 tonnes of foodgrains every month but in view of perennial problem of flood in the region and possible threat of
food crisis in Mizoram because of "mautam", the railway was carrying 75000 tonnes of food grain of Food Corporation of
India to create a buffer stock. The "mautam", or famine, is feared in Mizoram because of rare bamboo flowering caused
after a long gap. The bamboo flowering causes outbreak of rodent population. This year, fear of food shortage is looming
large in some of the frontier states which have already noticed phenomenal growth of rodents devouring rice crops.
According to Mizoram food and supplies department, this year, the food shortage has affected about 6,30,000 people,
nearly 70 per cent of the 9,00,000 residents of Mizoram. If the ordeal continues for a long, the three frontier states may
have to face the crisis of foodgrains during the rainy season when all communications with the region get snapped. FCI
sources said that during this time they stock the foodgrains for these interior states which loses its communication links
during the rainy season which starts early in the Northeast. After a series of violent attacks by DHD rebels on railway
employees, the railways authorities have not only been forced to suspend their entire operations in between the Lumding
and Harangajao railway stations, but have also evacuated its personnel and their families. According to NF Railway
spokesman, there are 21 stations between these two places and about 170 families were evacuated by two special trains on
Thursday.