Electric Vehicles Unplugged:

A 360 Degree Global Perspective

Presented by
Sarwant Singh
Partner, Frost & Sullivan
29th Sept 2009
Agenda

Driver training is considered vital to ensure that drivers are aware of the
Urban features,
Mobility And Itsand
capabilities, Influence
limitations In Shaping
of safety EVand
systems, Infrastructure
are assured of the
role that they play in managing the technology. This is particularly important
because speeding, impaired driving, varying road conditions, and several other
Electric Vehicles
conditions Market
can impact theOverview, Technology
performance of Roadmap
any safety system.
and Infrastructure Trendsfor ensuring that safety benefits are attained or that
The primary responsibility
safety systems are used properly resides with the driver. Despite the advances
in technology, training needs to keep pace. Driver training programs should
Globaltherefore
Marketascertain
Size and Forecasts
that for every new safety system installed, new training is
implemented.

Business Model Analysis of Key Industry Stakeholders

Voice Of The Customer – Fleet and Private Customer

Feedback On EVs

Conclusions And Recommendations

2
Definitions – Battery Electric Vehicles
Neighborhood Electric
Vehicles (NEVs)
NEV is a US DOT
classification for vehicles
weighing less than 3,000 lbs
(GVW) and top speed of 25
mph. NEVs generally are
restricted to operate on
streets with a speed limit of
35 mph or less.
GEM e2, e4, e6; REVA G-
Wiz i; ZENN; ZAP etc.
City Electric Vehicles
(CEVs)
A city car is a European
classification, for a small
and light vehicle intended for
use in urban areas although
they can operate in mixed
city-highway environment. In
Japan, city cars are called
kei cars.
Smart EV, Th!nk City, BMW
Mini and others
Extended-Range EVs High-Performance
(eREVs) EVS (HPEVs)
A plug-in hybrid electric Sporty PHEVs or battery
vehicle (PHEV) with a IC electric vehicles with top
engine or other secondary speeds exceeding 100 mph
sources connected to a and driving range
generator to supply the exceeding 100 miles. The
batteries. The drive range price of these vehicles is
and speeds are comparable expected to approach or
to IC engine vehicles. exceed $100,000.
Chevy Volt, Toyota Prius Tesla, Fiskers - Karma,
PHEV, Chrysler Sedan and Venturi - Fetish, Lightning
others GT
3
Cities in the Western Hemisphere Facing an Increasing Trend of De-
Urbanization - Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs
1950s Urbanisation
Creation of the historic centre and districts
2000s Suburbanisation
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
2015s Network City
Third suburban area and cities along the highways
created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
2020s : Branded Cities
Ring Road
Motorway, Living
Areas growing
outside the ring
road as seen in
London
Source: Frost & Sullivan
• Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres
becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for
“double income, no kids” households.
¨cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.
• Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while
manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third
belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
• ‘Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls
mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
¨cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and
working areas in third and second belt.
4
By 2020 Mega Super Cities Will Emerge in Developing Economies
Impacting Personal Mobility and Supporting EVs

Example 1 : Johannesburg and Pretoria becomes one BIG Mega City called “Jo-Toria”

Example 2 : Town Planning could evolve with Offices and Homes Adjacent to each other or within a
small compound area (e.g. Sao Paolo, Chennai with Satellite towns)

Office
Home

Source: Frost & Sullivan

5
In India and China there will be 6 Mega Cities With World-Class
Infrastructure and Development of Sub Satellite Towns (e.g. Chennai)
2020 + Interconnectivity with
Chennai 2000 – Satellite Towns Developing
Sub Satellite Towns

Core City

Satellite Commercial
Towns hubs

2015 – World Class

Outsourcing
Infrastructure (Equals Tier 2 city) companies (non
IT), like research
healthcare, auto
manufacturing
will increase
number of
satellite towns Development of outer ring
roads around Satellite and Sub
Satellite towns connected to
Motorways

6
Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology
Roadmap and Infrastructure Trends

7
Electric Vehicle Market Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields

Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel

Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs

and Government

Integrators
Utilities (Project Better OEMs
Place)
Lower fuel
Key Subsidies for
dependency by
Responsibility: EV purchase
expanding the
and Key
Development of use of
investment in Responsibility:
Charging renewable
R&D to reduce
Infrastructure energy sources Promotion of EV
emissions
use
Supplies
Development of
infrastructure to
performing
distribute their
batteries
energy

Infrastructure
Charging supplier System/Battery
Station Government
Manufacturers
Manufacturers

Could work to improve charging time and safety

8
Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap (Global), 2008-2015
- Charging Times to Drop to <30 Minutes by 2015
Electric Vehicle Market: Technology and Product Roadmap for Electric Vehicles (Global), 2005-2015

Driving Distance/charge-up to 55
Up to 125 Miles 190 + Miles
Miles
performance

Charge Time – 6 to 8 hrs < 1 hour < 15 minutes

Battery Capacity – up to 16kWh Up to 50 kWh 75 kWh +

Motor Power- Up to 70 kW 70 kW – 250 kW

Infrastructu

Slow charging - onboard

re

Fast charging – mostly off board

Battery Swapping

Market for Extended-Range Electric Vehicles: Technology Roadmap for Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Source: Frost & Sullivan

ELECTRIC RANGE Up to 40 miles Up to 100 miles

BATTERY CAPACITY 7kWh – 15kWh 16kWh – 25kWh

MOTOR POWER 50kW – 70kW 70kW – 140kW

CHARGING TIME 2 – 6 hrs 15 mins – 2 hrs

2005 2010 2015 2020

9
Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap (Global), 2008-2015
- Iron Phosphate and Manganese Based Li-ion Preferred

Electric Vehicle Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Vehicles (Global), 2005-2015, Cars and Commercial
Vehicles

Lead acid

Nickel Metal Hydride

Sodium Nickel Chloride

Batteries

Phosphate based

Manganese based
Titanate based Lithium Ion

Silica based

Zinc Air

Permanent Magnet
Electric Motors

Asynchronous

Switch Reluctance

In wheel motors

Motor Power- Up to 70 kW 70 kW – 250 kW

2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan

10
Current EV Range (60-80 Miles) Limits Developments Of Infrastructure
to Metropolitan Areas.
PRESENT DEVELOPMENTS WITH RESPECT TO ELECTRIC CHARGING STATIONS (2008 - 2012), World
Normal Charging Spots
50+ Fast Charging Spots
Pub. & Pvt. Parking Place
Mile Post
• Special EV parking space
• Free charging from charging outlet

10

Car Dealers, Public

Building
Commercial Facilities • Current strategic
• E.g., Dept. Stores, hotels, 25
locations for fast
malls charging
• Special parking lot for EV • 15 min. charge to yield
next to handicap 60 miles range
Home
provision • Normal charging by nigh time
• Free charge (1-2 hrs) discounted electricity
using AC outlet • Special charging plug at home
Source: Frost & Sullivan

• Improved range extension will see charging points extend beyond city limits to urban and sub-urban areas with emphasis
on both normal and fast charging stations

11
Future Developments in Electric Charging Stations (2010-2015) : Target
Focus on Parking Lots With Over 30 Minute Journey Stops
50+

Corporate Offices / Independent Houses

10

Long Duration Stay

• Multiplexes, railway stations are
strategic spots where consumer
Highway - Motels / Dining
“Park & Pickup” interval s are
• High potential of fast charging
ideal for 80% charge
stations seen to extend range of
• Conventional charging stations
EV’s
preferred over fast charging
Short-Medium Duration Stay • Battery Swapping stations likely
• Dining & Restaurants, Golf courses, to gain ground as well
movie theatres Normal Charging Spots
Fast Charging Spots
• Fast charging stations attractive Mile Post

• EV Range extension will see the rise of urban/sub-urban consumers using EV

• Fast charging stations seen across strategic locations on highways like motels, dining centres etc
Source: Frost & Sullivan

12
Diagnostic and Billing Services, And Tie-ups With Key Entertainment Industry
Services Will Attract Potential Investors To Expand Charging Stations Functionality

Design and Functionality Evolution of Charging Stations (Global), 2009-2015

IN-BUILT SOLAR PANELS

DESIGN BLEND WITH ENVIRONMENT
• Generating proprietary electricity
• Charging posts are specifically designed to blend with
•Will get energy from Utilities through groundwork
a specific cities environment theme
INTERACTIVE LCD DISPLAY
•Payment option - either manually through Debit/Credit Card or
automatically through RFID
EXTENDED FUNCTIONALITY •Club with parking charges
• Battery chemistry sensing •Opportunity to place orders in nearby coffee centres,
• Content delivery for on-board systems like MP3 stereos, restaurants or internet bays
TiVO systems and back-seat entertainment •Vehicle Diagnostic Interface
• Gaming Options – coin fed for additional revenue
generation CHARGING TYPE OPTIONS
• Vehicle Tracking System •Compartments to provide charging capabilities for up to 4
vehicles at a time
GARAGE SERVICES
•Option to provide both on-board and off-Board charging
• Future functionality of automotive diagnostics
• Communicate any or all (by law) or requested (by mfg)
access to in-car diagnostic or fault tolerance modules in MANUFACTURER FOCUSED SERVICES
real time to a shared database • Provide billing, roaming, and geo-location reporting and audit trails for
• Use unique IP address to store repair data for future access reciprocal sharing and utility reconciliation
and compliance tracking • Scaleable solution for charge-point installation upgrades
• Employ wireless networking capability and multi-carrier redundancy

Oyster Type Charging Stations

13
Global Market Size and Forecasts

14
 Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 1.2 M in F&S
Scenario

2,400
T h o u san d s

Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, 2008-2015

2,000

1,600
Un it S h ip m en ts

Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio

1,200

800

400

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2020
Scenario's 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (% of total
car sales)

Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 94,985 273,116 574,435 863,160 1,439,147 2,266,450 12%
F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 41,653 117,385 255,151 471,690 791,961 1,226,607 7%
Conservative
5,103 7,550 25,884 72,895 168,965 273,244 394,605 520,953 4%
Scenario

15
EV Breakdown By Region- eREV Popular Segment In NA to Account
for 42% Share and CEVs to Account for 73% Share In Europe

Electric Vehicle Market: Breakdown By Region - Sales (Estimates), 2015

1.22 Million
1%
600 3%
Thousands

1%
500 1%
1% 31%
2%

400 24%
42%

300

8,911 200
65%

21% 12%
73%
28% 1%
100 56% 3%
63% 29%
60%
68%
14%
0
2009 3% Asia Pacific Europe North America Others
2015
CEV eREV NEV/QC HPEV

• Japan and China are the key markets for APAC=> likely 80% market share. China expects major share from the local OEMs and
potential for strong growth in India
•eREV and PHEVs likely to account major share in the North American market driven by the virtue of demographics and customer driving
characteristics => GM & Chrysler key OEMs. On the other hand, CEVs suit the demographics for the Europe.

16
 Electric 2 Wheelers – e Bicycle, e Scooter & e Motor Bike Market
worth Over 25M Units worldwide

• Over 20 million electric 2 wheelers sold globally in 2008

• Modest growth expected globally with 22 million sales forecasted by 2010

Regenerative braking
Motor driven by torque functionality in high end
sensor on pedal models

Vectrix Electric Scooter

Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped

Hub motor driven

purely by throttle

Lead Acid / NiMH Battery

• Regenerative Braking*
• Range – 35 km / 50 km*
• 60 Volt lead acid battery • 125 Volt NiMH battery
• Charging time – 7 hours • Charging time – 2 hours
• Max speed – 70 kph • Acceleration (0 – 80 kph) – 6.8s
• Range – 80 km • Max speed – 100 kph
• Range – 110 km @ 40 kph

17
Business Model Analysis of Key Industry
Stakeholders

18
Business Models Analysis: Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of
EVs; The Rest 25% Sold Traditionally

Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4

TYPE Energy Package Maintenance Package Part Subsidy Full Subsidy

COVER Partial battery Energy Package+ Maintenance Maintenance Package+

lease + Electricity Insurance+ Maintenance Package+ Discount 100% Discount

ENERGY Monthly Bill Flat: Max 2000km/month Flat: 25,000km/year Flat: 30,000km/year

CONTRACT NA NA 4 years 7 years

SUBSIDY NA NA 50% car price Free car

MONTHLY Up to €150 Up to €350 €500- €800 ~ €900- €1500

LEASE
Source: Better Place, Frost & Sullivan

Other Possible Leasing models

Flexible Mileage Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go

Flexible Contract The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease

19
 EV Business Models Will Have to Compete With The Internal
Combustion Engine Cost Ownership Structure

Small Segment Low Medium Segment

•Toyota Yaris •Vauxhall Corsa Citroen C2 •Toyota Prius •Ford Focus •VW Golf

E.g.,
Capital Investment = € 13,573 Capital Investment = € 22,142
Avg. Annual Standing & Running

~ €4,000 € 6,308
152
152 80
275
226 131 468
Costs per vehicle

317 1,125

1,197

2,891
1,445
~ €900 € 1,000
154 154
349 349
722 114 1,313 114
329 329

Standing Charges Running Standing Charges Running

per Vehicle Cost per Vehicle Cost
Cycle 3 years
Period
3 years
Avg. TARGET
COST

~ € 29,000 ~ € 44,000
Cost of finance (Interest) Depreciation Fuel Insurance Maintenance Tax Ass. Membership Parking Charge Source: RAC
Congestion charge Replacement Parts Tyres

20
 Key Facts and Assumptions Used for Calculating Cash Flow Analysis
for EV Cost Of Ownership

Years Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Assumed EV Sales / yr 3,000 14,500 23,450 38,850 70,700 117,600

FACTS

Battery Capacity 24 24 24 27 27 27
(Kwh - Avg.)

TOTAL CELL PRODUCTION 1,309,091 6,327,273 10,232,727 19,071,818 34,707,273 57,730,909

Impact of Lithium on NO NO NO NO LESS MODERATE

pricing

Volume effect on Cost and Pricing

Pricing Of Cars Vs Battery Recovery Options
of Li-Ion battery
Initial Ownership Æ (€800/KWh) Cost of Vehicle without Battery Æ € 20,000 (Avg.)

Cell Volume % Price % Battery Recovery Schemes

Energy Package ROI Potential
and Cost of Car Implications
KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Reduction
1. € 150/month
20%
1Mn – 5Mn
• 40% Î € 27,680
2. € 350/month
40%
>5Mn – 10Mn
3. € 800/month – Part • Part Subsidy Î € 14,000
50% Subsidy
>10Mn – 20Mn
4. € 1200/month – Full • Full Subsidy Î € 0
60% Subsidy
>20Mn-50Mn

70% 5. € 1500/month – Full

>50Mn Subsidy

21
Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside
Selling Energy

Source Of Revenue Generation CAGR Calculated over 5 years

CAGR = 242%
1. Revenues from Selling Electricity (Over 5 years) €390Mn - €400Mn
CAGR = 153%
2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations (Over 5 years) €650Mn - €700Mn
CAGR = 158%
3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations (Over 5 years) €490Mn - €500Mn
CAGR = 153%
4. Revenues from Diagnostics (Revenue Opportunity to start
from 3rd year) €600K - €625K
CAGR = 242%
5. Revenues from Garage Referrals (Over 5 years) €25K - €27K
CAGR = 127%
6. Revenues from Music Download (Revenue Opportunity to start €150K - €165K
from 3rd year)

CAGR = 161%
7. Revenues from Others (Over 5 years) € 340Mn - € 345Mn

TOTAL: €1.9Bn - €2Bn

Capital Investment Includes:
(1st yr) ÎNew Energy Capacity €48Mn - €50Mn

ÎNetwork Recurring Cost

ÎCharging Station Purchase Cost
Fixed & Operating Cost ÎInstallation and Maintenance cost
€640Mn - €650Mn
ÎLogistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing
and Labour Cost

22
Telematics Service Package for EVs – Tier 1 EV OEMs with Already Existing
Telematics Concepts like OnStar and Teleaid will Create Successful Concepts

Opt in/Opt
out
Key
Customer
Players
Preference

Charging
Generating Real Time Demand Infrastructure
Monthly EV Traffic Response Providers
Miles Green Information
Report for Vehicle
Fleets Charger Manufacturers
Green Routing Voltage
Booking & Entertainment with
Availability of on-demand- Established
Charging Dynamic Information Telematics
Charging
Station Route Fuelling Offerings
Status
Guidance
Location of Remote Utility
Charging Energy Vehicle
Companies
Station Charging Desired Diagnostics
Environment Utility Back End
State of POI Vehicle Interior Pre- Infrastructure
Charge Information Identification Conditioning Providers

Navigation V2G
POI Package Other Services
Package Communication

EV Telematics Package

23
 Voice Of The Customer –
Customer Feedback On EVs

24
Methodology: 3 studies were run in parallel to provide a holistic view
of Customers Requirements in Europe

Consumers Fleet Drivers Fleet Managers

• Driving habits, priorities
for new vehicle purchase,
interest in EVs and
response to Business
Models
• 1982 interviews, over 50%
in London, Berlin, Paris
and Milan
• Driving Habits (including distance
travelled, number of trips per day,
parking location, parking duration,
weight carried etc)
• The influence that drivers have in
the purchase of their fleet vehicle
and their attitudes and needs in
relation to Electric Vehicles
• 170 Interviews
• Key decision makers in the choice
of their business fleet vehicles
• Understanding of the factors they
used to choose fleet vehicles and
their views and attitudes towards
Electric Vehicles
• Forecast EV uptake within
businesses and analysis of key
elements such as price, range and
charging sensitivity
• 95 Interviews

Businesses of Focus (Fleet Drivers & Fleet Managers):

Building & Maintenance Public Sector Postal / Courier Car Rental Business Delivery Utility & Telecoms

Sample list of Businesses Interviewed:

France: Alstom, Babcock Wilson, Century 21, Chronopost, DHL, Europcar, Mairie de Marseille, Office Depot, Redcats, Solvay, Total, La Poste
Germany: Adolf Würth GmbH & Co KG, BMTi Baumaschinentechnik International GmbH, Deutsche Poste, Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and
Consumer Protection, Fedex, RWE,
UK: Addison Lee, Camden Council, eCourier, EDF, Eon, Marks & Spencers, NHS Trust, Royal Mail, Scotia Gas, Surrey Police, Tesco, Thyssenkrupp
Elevators, GE Capital Solutions

M35F-18 25
 Study Objectives: Consumer Wants, Needs and Aspirations For Electric
Vehicles and How They Differ Between Private and Business Users
• What is the purchase motivation behind buying
• Attributes and features desirability (speed, EV’s for consumers – private and business users?
distance, pricing etc.) • What role does the environment and climate
change issues play in promoting EV’s
• How important are government incentives/taxes for
• How important is branding to consumer’s
EVs to users and will they continue to be interested
choice of EV’s. Do consumers know who Purchase
the key players are? Adaptive in EVs without them?
• Will consumers buy EV’s from non choice based motivation and
traditional OEMs? conjoint criteria for EVs
• How do consumers use
their vehicle and is the
Importance of
Brand and
EV’s Current Vehicle usage pattern suitable to
the capabilities (e.g. range,
Usage Pattern top speed) of Electric
model type Vehicles?

• What are consumer’s

requirements
surrounding
Consumer wants, EV Design and • What design and functions

accessibility e.g.
Infrastructure needs and function of vehicles will consumers
demand in EV’s?
during work hours aspirations requirements • Will consumers need to
and during weekends trade off certain features
such as powerful stereo’s
Response to and air conditioning until
proposed New Business battery technology
improves?
Business ROI Models
cases
• Would they be wiling to pay more
for the vehicle if there are lower • Which Business Models are customers willing to adopt? Will consumers prefer to purchase
running costs? EV’s outright or lease the vehicles? What is their response to leasing batteries?
• What is the cost / benefit analysis? • What infrastructure models do consumers prefer –charging to home utility bill, pay as you
charge?

26
Fleet Customer : Although analysis indicates that the Utility & Telecoms sector
represents the largest potential market, the public sector shows good opportunities

% of Fleet
Average
Average Charging Managers Total maximum
journeys Max.
miles available at who are in a potential market
over 100 weight
covered work? (% position to in 2015 (France,
miles per Carried
daily saying yes”) “consider” an Germany, UK)
week
EV now
Building &
54 miles 66% 4.1 646kg 42% 23,271 units
Maintenance
Government /
32 miles 71% 2.4 285kg 73% 57,586 units
Public Sector
Postal &
Courier 66 miles 65% 4.8 246kg 50% 43,363 units
Services

Car Rental 56 miles 60% 6.8 192kg 56% 28,144 units

Business
Delivery 24 miles 48% 2.6 362kg 41% 71,137 units
Services

Utility &
36 miles 50% 3.8 531kg 50% 25,891 units
Telecoms

* Based on 95 interviews with Fleet Managers and 170

interviews with Fleet Drivers

M35F-18 27
UK Profile: Islington Council
Region of Operation: UK, Islington Council
Industry: Government
Total Fleet Size: 700 vehicles

Relevant Vehicle Average Annual

Make and Model Service Life Operating Costs
Class Mileage
Mercedez Benz Ford,
LCV, Fuel: Average €2000 per
PSA, Modec and 10,000 miles 7 years
Cars annum
Smart EV

Vehicle Type and Acquisition Used

Almost all
Vehicles back
Typical Vehicles used vehicle does
practically for to depot after
vehicle usage primarily during
all council
around
business
patterns the day 50 miles per
7.1% LPG purposes
day
hours

2.8% Electric Vehicles Being a small borough, EVs are highly practical here
0.1% Hybrid
Most of the “We are typically trying to increase the
90 % Diesel vehicles leased number of EVs within our fleet…we are a
small borough and EVs would be suitable
for most of our applications.”- Fleet
Manager

Capacity and weight requirements Opportunity for Electric Vehicles

Payload capacity of currently used EV is Key EV Driver:
between 1.6 to 1.8 ton which is sufficient for Potential 1: 80 vehicles replaced every year ; Plans to buy 30 Small EV Driver: For
our operation EVs next year borough, EVs emission and
Potential 2: Most of the vehicles in the fleet does short range are highly noise
travel ( less than 100 miles per day). Since vehicles are primarily practical reduction
used during the day issues related to charging duration are less
EV Price and business models: Business case review needed; Key EV
Restraint:: EV Restraint:
Over the life of the vehicle we would be prepared to spend around
Height : 1950 mm Cost over life
10% to 15% more than what we spend for a standard diesel one. Technology, time
Width : 1850 mm Not more than that Reliability
Length : 4100 mm EV Brand: Really interested in a Branded Vehicle
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
M35F-18 28
UK Profile: Royal Mail
Region of Operation: UK and worldwide
Industry: Postal & Courier Services
Total Fleet Size: 33,000 vehicles

Relevant Vehicle Class Number of Vehicles Average Annual km Lifecycle

Car Derived 15,197 cars 22,530 km 3 years
Small, Medium and Large Panel 7,373 cars 29,500 km 4 years
Small People Carrier 1,253 cars 20,900 km 3 yeas
Crew/Post Bus 3,257cars 16,900 km 5 yeas
Heavy Small, Heavy Medium Heavy Large (+trailers) 3,887 trucks (+2,448) 99,200 km 4-5 years

• The coverage of Royal Mail Group is greater than any other postal operator
Our 33,000 vehicles drive
650,000,000 miles per • In the UK, Royal Mail Group operates under the brands Royal Mail, Post Office and Parcelforce
year, using enough Worldwide
diesel to fill 60 Olympic
• The company has strong environmental policy and its high priority is replacing existing fuels with
sized swimming pools.
Petrol, zero/low C equivalents
34%
• CO2 reduction target of 50% by 2015 (reduce by 50% in London by 2012)
Diesel,
60%
Opportunity for Electric Vehicles

Likely Ownership for Future Vehicles- Requirements:

by Alternative Fuel Type Would require fast charging (3 phase/ single phase)
160 km range with top Speed 60 MPH EV Driver:
Key EV Driver:
25 kWh Battery Pack CO2 emission Strong eco- EV Driver:
Reliability: warranty, technical support and roadside reduction friendliness Economy
support policy
Product and Parts Supply: development of
EV Restraint:
Hybrid infrastructure to support sales and maintenance Key EV EV Restraint:
Electric Hydrogen Reliability
requirements Restraint: Cost
and
Fuel Source: development of the fuelling Infrastructure
Availability
infrastructure
Total Cost of Ownership: Batteries, Maintenance,
fuelling' infrastructure, vehicle lifecycle

29
 UK Fleet Profile: Addison Lee

Region of Operation: Key Operations in London (through affiliates operate a European level courier service)
Industry: Taxi & Private Hire
Total Fleet Size: 2,625 vehicles (All are purchase new from the vehicle manufacturers)

Relevant Average
Make and Model Service Life Operating Costs Servicing Schedule
Vehicle Class Annual km
VW – Sharan, Assets purchased outright and all services
Passenger Caddy, 2.5-3 years, key conducted in-house, including vehicle Serviced every 5,000 miles at an in-
Cars Transporter 26,600 to motivation for vehicle servicing, cleaning, purchasing, selling and house service factory at the company.
(average price 36,000 change to avoid insuring
Ford- Galaxy
£20,000) maintenance costs
Mercedes- E-Class

Vehicle Class Overview and Fuel Type • Passenger cars are the main chunk of the fleet, used for taxi and rental services. The vehicles are used
on a 12 hour shift basis and are taken home by the drivers.
• Light Vans and Bikes (Honda) are used for courier services which operate during the business hours
and carry any load that fits
LCV 125 Typical Vehicle parked Distance per Driven during
at home or Speed of 30-
Bikes 200 Passenger Diesel 2200 vehicle usage job 50-250 12 hour shift 120 kmph
business car miles
Cars 2200 patterns park

Vehicle returned or taken home

Opportunity for Electric Vehicles

Capacity and weight requirements Potential 1: Replacing 200 bikes for courier services. Providing
Passenger Cars = min 4 seats additional protection and a higher capability of the cargo. Savings on Key EV Driver: EV Driver:
Bikes = 30-40 Litre carrying capacity fuel is the major driver but subject to charging points access. Fuel Savings Incentives
Potential 2: Replacing a proportion of the car fleet to EVs. Requires from
sufficient infrastructure before this is feasible and a passenger load Government
comparable to a VW Sharan fleet
EV Restraint:
EV Price and business models: Prepared to pay 3 times subject to Key EV
Load capacity
returns over ownership period. Restraint:
For low CO2, Safety (due to less speed), fuel (Size and
EV Brand: No preference Lack of
economy Weight)
Infrastructure
Specification Required: Min 2 seats, HVAC, automatic drive (esp
For reliability, space, low payload, expensive and
unattractive London) Security, Battery Monitoring

30
Fuel costs are the predominant elements of vehicles Cost Of Ownership in
Utility companies, Public Sector and Business Delivery Services

Question: Please estimate how much you spend on the following per month (Euros)

€645 €627

€546

€435
€396

€265

56%
63%

27% 53% 63%

28%

Builing & Bus Delivery Car Rental Public Sector Postal Utility
Maintenance
Fuel Maintenance Financing Leasing Insurance Road TaxRoad Congestion Others

• Interestingly, fuel amounts for up to 2/3 of fleet running costs across businesses interviewed with Business Delivery and
Public sector seeing it take up the largest share of their Cost of Ownership
• EV’s should aim to address the Fuel and Road Taxing costs for businesses * Based on 93 Interviews with Fleet Drivers who are
involved in the choice and running costs of their vehicle

M35F-18 31
Private Customer Sample Split (Europe)

Screening
Sample includes 69% of people that are 'very interested', 'interested' and 'unsure' in terms of considering buying an electric
vehicle with the remaining 31% 'not interested at all' and 'not interested'.
Mix of owners of cars (since 2002) and those looking to purchase a new vehicle within the next 3 years. Consumers will be
selected based on the types of cars that they are willing to consider, i.e. A&B, C, D&E, SUV and MPV as well as one current electric
vehicle owner.

Sample breakout France Germany Italy United Kingdom Total

A 35 8.12% 34 6.53% 55 10.74% 24 5.17% 148 7.68% Gender Breakdown

B 111 25.75% 104 19.96% 145 28.32% 113 24.35% 473 24.53% • 54% Males
C 136 31.55% 176 33.78% 133 25.98% 140 30.17% 585 30.34% • 46% Females
D&E 71 16.47% 129 24.76% 83 16.21% 118 25.43% 401 20.80%

MPV 58 13.46% 59 11.32% 77 15.04% 48 10.34% 242 12.55%

SUV 20 4.64% 19 3.65% 19 3.71% 21 4.53% 79 4.10%

Total 431 22% 521 27% 512 27% 464 24% 1928 100%

Age Segmentation City where respondents live Number of Vehicles Owned

66 or Older Other Cities

1 vehicle
56 to 65 years Rome
2 vehicles
46 to 55 years
Paris
36 to 45 years
Berlin 3 vehicles
26 to 35 years
London 4 or more
18 to 25 years
vehicles

M35F-18 32
 Owners in France & Italy feel they drive further during weekends

Statistical differences are observed between the kilometres driven on weekdays and weekends. The travelled distance is superior during the
weekends. The same way, the average number of kilometres travelled on the weekend is superior in Italy and France compared to other countries.

Q4 On average, how many kilometres do you think you drive in a typical average day? (trimmed mean 5%)

80

64 64

60
Average (trimmed mean 5%)

55

49 48
45 45 44
43
41
40

20

Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend
(one day (one day (one day (one day (one day (one day (one day (one day (one day (one day
only) only) only) only) only) only) only) only) only) only)
0
France Germany Italy United Kingdom Total

Base : Total interviews N=1,928, Note: UK miles converted to km, 1 mile = 1.609344 km

M35F-18 33
 Note: The presented segments

Adopters of EV's likely to be French or UK, 26-35 and 55+,

result from the overall
knowledge about EV already
acquired by respondents

Male with higher disposable incomes (previous communication

impact as result of the Conjoint
Analysis exercise)

Q16 Please rate your level of agreement with the following general statements …
(Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat agree; Agree; Strongly Agree)

ADOPTERS RELUCTANT EXPECTANTS

EV represent the High performance The environment is

future! Innovation is vehicles and well- a concern. The
the key word and known brands are brand doesn’t
even the the first priority. matter, but the costs
“drawbacks” are Don’t accept the are a important
accepted. environment aspect on the
argument. decision making.
Index Cronbach's α=0.818 Index Cronbach's α=0.719 Index Cronbach's α=0.727

Who are they… This group will also be more concerned about the environment but are likely to see EV's as innovative.
SUV owners show a surprising higher interest in EV's and is due to them wanting 'something different'
from other vehicle owners. Cross over EV SUV's will appeal.

Profile (high values) Share 52% 50%

Country UK, France 37% 37%

32% 32% 32% 30% 30%
29%
Age 26-35, 55+ 52% 27% 27%
24% 24% 25% 26% 26%
22%

Gender Male 32%

Current SUV (want to be
50%
Segment different) France Germ any Italy UK 18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66 or > Male Fem ale A&B C D&E MPV SUV

28% of the sample

Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same
Base : Total interviews N=1,479 average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis.

M35F-18 34
Strategic Conclusions and Recommendations
Value Delivery
(Channel to Market.)
• Leasing
• Internet based sales
Vehicle Specifications
(Ideal Top Level Vehicle Spec.)
Typical Specification of an EV:
• Occupants: 2/2+2
• EV Range: 100-150 miles
• Battery Capacity: 20-30 kWh
• Charging time: 5-6 hours
• Smart Charging = 30 mins
• Load = min 0.5 tonnes
Adopt Innovative and New
Business models
(For Increased penetration of EVs)
• € 350 - €500 package
• Battery negotiations at > €500 / Kwh
• Consumer access to cutting edge
technology – (By-wire, Adv, DAS,
Connected car etc)
CEV an Attractive
Segment in EU, REV
in NA
Electric
Vehicles
Geographic Market
• Opportunity to gain additional revenue from new services
(Identify key emerging cities –
focusing on partnership and
alliance opportunities) • Opportunity for new partnership with new non automotive
CEV –60% of Global EV sales
• Opportunity to position CEVs globally across key EU
& NA cities
• Opportunity for A and B Class??
• 40% of EVs in NA will be eREVs –opportunity
across medium & upward segments
Customer Segments
(Leverage “Gen –Y”)
• Fleet customers
• Target new customer age group <40 yr
• Target early adopters – new customer group through
premium technology product and service offering
• Customers riding the “Green Wave”
Value Creation
(Opportunity to gain revenues
from innovative service streams)
•Diagnostic, entertainment, innovative wireless business
services etc
industries
35
Discussions

36