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Storm Through $1B Barrier and services from $705M in 2001 to an estimated
$1.06B in 2004. Pent-up demand in Aerospace and
Defense, global brand management in CPG, and
warranty cost containment in Automotive are key
by Simon Jacobson, Colin Masson, Alison Smith, and Joe Souza drivers for growth.
© Copyright 2005 by AMR Research, Inc.
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MES Market Rides Perfect Storm
Through $1B Barrier
by Simon Jacobson, Colin Masson, Alison Smith, and Joe Souza
The
Manufacturing is “in” and the long-quiescent MES market is riding the wave,
finally breaking through the $1B barrier.
Bottom
Line
MES revenue from sales to North American companies increased from 43% in 2001
to 52% in 2004 as global producers, particularly in CPG and Pharmaceuticals, expand
initial deployments and push for global standardization. Asian and European markets
continue to evolve. MES revenue from Asia is down from 2002 levels, but this is a
temporary lull as a new mix of manufacturing capacity is brought online.
Despite the past five years of consolidation, this perennially fragmented market contin-
ues to support a plethora of best-of-breed vendors—no dominant vendor has emerged.
The race is on, however, as large automation vendors GE Fanuc, Invensys, Rockwell,
and Siemens establish beachheads in strategic sub-verticals.
If anything, this past year’s track record for warranty and safety recalls has driven the
point home dramatically. Outsourcing exacerbates this risk, and brand owners across
industries are wrestling with risk mitigation across a globally distributed set of suppli-
ers and contract resources (see the AMR Research Report “Contract Manufacturing at
a Crossroads: Brand Owner Need for Visibility,” April 2005). This has reinvigorated
spending on manufacturing IT, particularly on systems and software applications that
provide visibility and detailed audit trails of the production process, like MES.
When AMR Research last sized this market in 2001 (see the AMR Research Report
“MES Market Landscape: By the Numbers,” May 2002), the vast majority of the
Fortune 1000 manufacturers were in the throes of massive ERP rollouts and consolida-
tions. As these draw to a close, manufacturers are realizing that their ability to mea-
sure and manage the performance of their manufacturing assets hasn’t proportionately
improved. Why?
• Myth No. 1: Agility from standardized global business processes—Standardizing
global order-to-cash and procure-to-pay business processes hasn’t produced the ben-
efits expected. In the rush to rationalize ERP systems to support these processes,
manufacturing, work-in-process inventory management, and plant scheduling have
taken a back seat, effectively cutting manufacturing visibility out of the supply chain.
• Myth No. 2: Creating a real-time enterprise—ERP drives the business on a set
of financial models that rely on standard costs and fixed lead times that are often
disconnected from the realities of production performance, often called “production
actuals.” This is exacerbated by the lack of timely data synchronization between the
two environments. Reconciliation in the ERP world takes place on daily, weekly, or
monthly intervals, whereas the production environment functions in real time. The
result is two disconnected versions of the truth: one in ERP used for planning and
one in production, which is tasked with performing to schedule and budget.
SAP gets the message to the top: production data and performance
visibility is strategic
MES vendors and plant managers have often been staunch opponents of SAP in the execu-
tion environment, and have struggled to articulate “manufacturing excellence” in the financial
terms needed to win a share of limited IT budgets. Contentious relationships aside, SAP has
to be credited in part with this renewed interest in MES through its own initial forays into the
execution realm, and more recently, active support and evolution of stagnating manufacturing
standards (see the AMR Research Alert article “SAP Turns From Manufacturing Foe to Ally With
Business Package for ISA-S95,” October 15, 2004). SAP has also fueled growth in the Enterprise
Manufacturing Intelligence (EMI) market with its SAP NetWeaver Manufacturing Dashboards and
Shop-Floor Partner Program (see the AMR Research Alert article “SAP Defining Role in Plants With
Portals and Vendor Working Group,” May 12, 2004). In effect, SAP has acknowledged the role of
MES within the greater manufacturing landscape, providing well-defined integration points into
SAP R/3 and mySAP ERP 2004, and staked its own claim to the evolving market for supply network
operations functionality, starting with EMI (see the AMR Research Alert article “SAP NetWeaver
Hooks Manufacturing into Supply Networks, But Isn’t an Execution Platform,” June 4, 2004).
For SAP and the cadre of best-of-breed vendors serving the manufacturing operations space, this
has great potential to be a win-win scenario in which SAP still gets revenue, but the specialists take
on the messy details. One caveat, however, is that success for all will depend on how rapidly SAP’s
field sales force can internalize this dynamic. Prospective users should exercise caution, ask many
questions, and remain vigilant for over-zealous sales messaging.
AMR Research defines the MES market as the total revenue from sales of MES soft-
ware licenses, software maintenance fees, and implementation services related to train-
ing, custom development, and consulting. This market includes the following vendors:
• Pure-play MES vendors that derive 100% of their revenue from sales of MES
software and services to support those sales. Historically, these vendors tend to be
small—between $20M and $40M in revenue.
• Automation vendors that sell stand-alone MES applications—generally Intellectual
Property (IP) from prior acquisitions of pure-plays (see Table 2).
• Vendors of specialized MES products include software developed for packaging
applications, petrochemicals, and specialty chemicals. These more specialized prod-
ucts (see “MES equals advanced process control for Bulk and Specialty Chemicals”)
evolved through custom projects and are generally part of larger turnkey process
equipment or control applications—hence, not easily separated from the other prod-
ucts and services they are sold with. Note: AMR Research estimates revenue for
this segment of the market at a 5% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) since
2001. This estimate is included in the total market size, but this Report does not
cover these products in any detail.
This Report focuses on the vendors shown in Table 1 whose products compete head-to-
head in the market.
Other, $90M
8%
Specialty, $258M
23%
2004 MES
Vendor Revenue Range* Top Three Industries Served**
Apriso $10M to $20M Medical Device, Pharma, Auto Suppliers
AspenTech $50M-plus Chemical, Pharma, CPG
Brooks Software $50M-plus Computer and Electronics, A&D, Auto Suppliers
Camstar $20M to $35M Medical Device, Computer and Electronics
DMI $1M to $10M Pharma, Medical Device
Datasweep $10M to $20M Medical Device, Computer and Electronics, Wood Products
Elan $1M to $10M Pharma, Chemical, Medical Device
Eyelit $1M to $10M Computer and Electronics, Auto Suppliers
GEFanuc $20M to $35M CPG, Auto OEM, Pharma
HMS Software $10M to $20M A&D
Honeywell POMS $1M to $10M Pharma
iTAC $1M to $10M Auto Suppliers, Computer and Electronics, Medical Device
Intercim $1M to $10M A&D
Invensys $35M to $50M Oil and Gas, Chemical, CPG
iBaset $20M to $35M A&D, Computer and Electronics
Rockwell $10M to $20M Pharma
Siemens $20M to $35M CPG, Chemical, Auto OEM
UGS/Tecnomatix $1M to $10M Computer and Electronics, A&D, Auto Suppliers and OEM
VIA IT $1M to $10M Auto Suppliers
Visiprise $10M to $20M Computer and Electronics, A&D, Auto Suppliers
Werum $20M to $35M Pharma, Chemical, Medical Device
*Ranges appear for non-disclosure purposes. Source: AMR Research, 2005
**In order of decreasing contributions to revenue.
For manufacturers in the Oil and Gas, Petrochemicals, and Chemicals markets, MES takes on a dif-
ferent look and feel. In these asset-intensive industries, applications that leverage the substantial
investments in Distributed Control Systems (DCSs) and process historians make an MES system
have a different look and feel from the traditional transactional system typically sold into discrete
environments. MES in these industries takes on a combined flavor involving a data historian, com-
plex process control and automation software, data reconciliation and yield accounting for creat-
ing mass and energy balance snapshots of continuous process flows, and a layer to handle the
visibility into production data. This is a closed-loop piece at the plant level with a need for visibility
across the entire network at the high level. For global producers in these industries, the ability to
oversee and manage the performance of multiple production sites that are widely distributed is
a key issue, and EMI schemas tend to trump classical MES for providing the multisite analysis and
visibility into manufacturing performance. Vendors that have had success in this space do so with
a specialized approach and include AspenTech, Emerson, Honeywell, Invensys, Lighthammer,
and Pavilion Technologies.
2001
Pharmaceuticals/Biotechnology $82
2004
Pharmaceuticals/Biotechnology $97
Revenue ($M)
Notes: Bulk, Specialty Chemicals, Wood Products, Paper, Printing not shown.
Predominantly serviced by specialty vendors. Segments under $20M not shown.
Source: AMR Research, 2005
After several years of lackluster performance, the A&D market for MES is showing
signs of renewed vigor, growing from an estimated $23M in 2001 to $57M in 2004—
an increase of nearly 150%. Traditionally this market has purchased software top
down, focusing on ERP and then down the paths of Product Lifecycle Management
(PLM) and Supply Chain Management (SCM) functionality. New programs, how-
ever, are specifying MES as a requirement for capturing and documenting the details
of production quality data across the complex supply chain. This industry has histori-
cally been a bastion of homegrown systems, but cost pressures coupled with the need
to manage extensive supply networks are making commercially available products more
attractive than in the past.
Vendors in this segment including Apriso, HMS Software, iBaset, and Intercim
are seeing increased sales as new programs are rolled out. On the commercial side of
Aerospace, the drive to reduce new product launch is spurring investments as major
manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus strive to aggressively slash program timelines.
MES revenue from sales into the Food, Beverage, and CPG segment was up from an
estimated $30M in 2001 to $61M in 2004 as early adopters embark on wider deploy-
ments across the various industry sub-segments such as Brewing and Dairy. The need
to rapidly and consistently manage production across a high mix of brands and glob-
ally distributed manufacturing facilities has been a main driver of growth in this seg-
ment. Broadening regulatory oversight—the Bioterrorism Act in the United States and
the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Regulation 178/2002—is also having an
impact, driving producers to more stringent audit controls on product genealogy and
traceability.
• Brewing and Dairy have been fertile ground for both Siemens and Invensys/
Wonderware. Siemens is finding additional application in the Meat and Poultry
Processing segment, driven by increasingly stringent genealogy requirements both
here and in Europe. Both vendors have deployments in the Soda and Soft Drink
segments as well.
• GE Fanuc continues to evolve its Proficy assets, quietly making significant inroads
in the North American Brewing market.
Regulatory compliance and faster time to market were the two main drivers for MES
purchases in Life Sciences (excluding Medical Devices), where revenue as a percentage
of the total market increased 2%, from an estimated $81M in 2001 to $97M in 2004.
For pharmaceutical manufacturers, the Electronic Batch Record (eBR) generated by
the MES is a central piece of compliance documentation.
Beyond compliance, though, these manufacturers are looking ahead to fewer block-
busters and additional competitive pressures from generics and over-the-counter pro-
ducers. With the writing on the wall, large pharma producers are looking to get leaner
and meaner. Many of the companies we’ve interviewed are either executing or aggres-
sively evolving manufacturing operations excellence strategies to carry them profitably
through the next decade. AMR Research expects to see the fruits of these efforts
reflected in 2005 MES revenue growth as product selections are solidified.
• Spending in Biotech and Pharma Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) increased
as early pilots were completed and corporate projects received funding. Werum
maintained forward momentum in this market, while Honeywell reasserted itself
with the launch of its next-generation POMS.net product. AspenTech is growing its
penetration of this market as well, relying on its extensive portfolio of products to
offer batch execution, batch analysis, and pilot-to-production scale-up capabilities in
addition to implementation services.
DMI Camstar
Apriso
Camstar
Elan
HMS
Software Datasweep
iTAC Honeywell
POMS
Intercim
UGS/ Werum
Tecnomatix UGS/Tecnomatix
iBaset
AspenTech
VIA IT Eyelit
GE Fanuc GE Fanuc
Siemens Siemens
Visiprise
Rockwell
Rockwell
Automation
Automation
Brooks Software
Invensys
Auto A&D Discrete Repetitive/ Elec./ Semi- Food and Life Chem/ Mills/Sheet
Assembly Flow Med. conductor Bev./ Sciences/ Petrochem Products
(incl. Devices CPG Pharma/
Auto Parts) Biotech
200 Automation
100
$58
50 $38
$15
$6
0
North America EMEA Asia-Pacific Rest of World
2001
5%
25%
43%
North America
EMEA
27%
Asia-Pacific
6%
19%
52%
32%
• MES revenue attributed to the Asian market has tapered off from 25% to 19%,
reflecting the decrease in number of large, greenfield semiconductor fabrication
facilities. A large portion of 2001 MES revenue from this region was the result of
large sales and service engagements for semiconductor automation vendors AMAT,
Brooks Software, IBM, and PRI (now part of Brooks)—virtually all associated with
the offshoring of fabrication capacity.
• This current decrease in MES spending is cyclical, and AMR Research expects to see
a new wave of spending in this geographic segment as consumer electronics
manufacturers and their midsize components suppliers invest in MES for traceability
and compliance purposes, especially at the Small and Midsize Business (SMB) and
box-build levels.
MES and related manufacturing software vendors to the Semiconductor and High-
Tech markets continue to set the bar for functionality and flexibility. These markets’
need for speed and reliance on globally distributed manufacturing resources requires
products that can scale both horizontally and vertically. As a result, vendors serv-
ing this segment of the market—such as Brooks Software and Eyelit—have created
architectures that use event-driven workflows to coordinate activities across far-flung
resources and execution environments.
This combination of global visibility, global coordination, and support for heteroge-
neous local execution is the model for next-generation MES.
Conclusion
Early adopters of MES are embarking on broader second-generation implementations,
and penetration is growing in markets where MES can offer clear value at the local exe-
cution level. Global coordination has yet to come, but large automation vendors that
have invested heavily in unified platforms for their manufacturing software offerings
are poised to effect a sea change in this market. AMR Research expects to see market
share increasingly shift to these players within the next 12 to 18 months. Today’s best-
of-breeds are flourishing, and this is likely to continue as automation vendors focus on
establishing beachheads in large accounts with global rollout potential and on dominat-
ing specific industry vertical sub-segments. Products from best-of-breed MES vendors
will continue to be the staple of manufacturers seeking operational excellence at the
local level.
AMAT www.appliedmaterials.com
Apriso www.apriso.com
Camstar www.camstar.com
Datasweep www.datasweep.com
Emerson www.emersonprocess.com
Eyelit www.eyelit.com
GE Fanuc www.geindustrial.com
Honeywell www.honeywell.com
iBaset www.ibaset.com
IBM www.ibm.com
Intercim www.intercim.com
Invensys www.invensys.com
iTAC www.itac.com
Lighthammer www.lighthammer.com
Rockwell www.rockwelllautomation.com
SAP www.sap.com
Siemens www2.automation.siemens.com
UGS/Tecnomatix www.tecnomatix.com
Visiprise www.visiprise.com
Werum www.werum.com
Acronyms and Abbreviations
A&D Aerospace and Defense
AMR-R-18059