Professional Documents
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Insights
Nº. 77 February 22, 2010
Investment perspectives
in the Infrastructure
sector in 2010-2013
By Gilberto Rodrigues Borça Junior Based on data available at the
If you wish to receive the following editions of and Pedro Quaresma institution, the BNDES has periodically
Economists in APE investigated the investment perspectives
this publication send an e-mail to within the Brazilian economy since 2006.
visao.do.desenvolvimento@bndes.gov.br. Such research is unique as it is grounded
BNDES mapping The BNDES is the on technical knowledge in sectorial
foresees an main financing divisions within the Bank, which, thanks
injection of R$ bank for long-term to access to company investment plans,
274 billion into
investments in are better qualified to analyze the path
the sector
industry and to be taken in a diverse range of sectors.
infrastructure in Brazil. For this reason, it Research conducted in 2006 and 2007
maintains a stable relationship with the managed to foresee the investment cycle
majority of companies related to these that was gaining momentum.
segments, determinedly accompanying Throughout the worst months of the
the trends of other markets. As it is a international financial crisis, as of the
development bank, companies see it as
a strategic partner, fostering a wider
Brazilian Economic Insights is a publication by
network of information sharing. Such a
the Economic Research Division (APE) of the
position makes the BNDES an important Brazilian Development Bank. The opinions in
locus, pooling together a wealth of data this publication are the responsibility of the
concerning investment prospects in authors and do not necessarily reflect the
production in Brazil. point of view of the BNDES’ management.
second half of 2008, more frequent Amounts appeared to the tune of R$ Dynamic competition in the Efforts to expand investments in the
follow-up of the data was carried out, 274 billion. As in previous research, this telecommunication sector forces large infrastructure segment have been rather
revealing that the investment horizon study includes sectors such as: electric companies to make investments in successful. As of the worsening of the
had become more volatile. Even so, there energy, telecommunications, sanitation specific market segments. Constant and international crisis in mid-2008,
was strong resilience in some sectors, and logistics (highways, railways and swift technological changes intensify the investments linked to infrastructure
such as oil & gas and those linked to ports). This is a representative group of cross-sectorial dispute in the quest for remained practically stable. With this, the
basic infrastructure. For investments into sectors, as it corresponds to 95% of the proportional market share gains. mid-term outlook for investments is
industry, the impact of the crisis was total investments in infrastructure in The large-scale projects to build positive. Project mapping in
much more severe, especially in the 2008, according to the BNDES’ hydroelectric plants in the North of the infrastructure sectors for the 2010-2013
export segments. estimates. country depend on the bureaucracy and period reveal an investment potential of
Now that the peak in the international regulation to which they are subject. The R$ 276 billion, that is, accumulated
financial crisis has subsided, the aim of Investments in Infrastructure timing between obtaining the required growth of 38.6% compared to the 2005-
this edition of Brazilian Economic licensing and adjusting the specific 2008 period. Electric energy, sanitation
Insights is to present a fresh look at the Investments in infrastructure are vitally project conditions does not only reduce and logistics are the areas that stand out
investment perspectives in infrastructure, relevant to the economy. They not only the cost of investment, but also makes from the pack. Investment decisions are
focusing, now, on the 2010-2013 period. increase systemic competitiveness – it feasible to appropriately expand the strongly influenced by public policies and
supply of electric energy to the country. regulations.
The positive outlook for investments
Chart 1 Conclusion simultaneously offers both significant
Evolution of investments in electric energy and telecommunications benefits and challenges to the country.
(In R$ billions) Characteristics of projects in the Investments in basic sanitation bring
40 infrastructure area include their large about a significant social impact, while
Forecast scale, their long-term nature and the electric energy projects, in their turn, help
35 sheer size of the resources required. sustain economic growth and increase
Electric Energy Such projects are of strategic productivity in the economy. Still, the
30 importance, both in terms of systemic challenge to sustain growth in
competitiveness through multiplying investments is expected to be more
25 effects and maintaining high, long-term intense than over the last few years. As
Telecom. economic growth through acceleration. the external markets are in the initial
20 As of 2007, investment growth became stages of recovery, long-term structural
routine in the Brazilian economy, having public policies (PAC, PDP, PICTI) will most
15 begun in the industrial segment. Sectors likely take on more importance. Large-
connected to basic infrastructure gained scale projects in the infrastructure area
10 more importance, reaffirmed by the will require new regulatory
launch of the PAC, a federal government improvements, as well as stable, long-
5 program aimed at expanding and term financing mechanisms, coupled with
sustaining public investment in the integrated efforts from public and private
0 sector, while simultaneously maintaining banks and the capital market.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
a positive approach in terms of long-term
Source: Investment Work Team. Elaborated by APE/BNDES. expectations in the private sector.
2 7
Summary Table on Investments in Infrastructure Table4-1 Geração Líq. de Empregos por Região e Participação de cada Região no
Tabela
Sectors Critical Factors Perspectives
Investiments no Saldo Líquido
Mapped Investments in Infrastructure Total
2010-2013
2010-2013 Sectors R$ billion %
Expansion of Highway Concessions; and
Ports & Highway Transport Regulation (Concession) incentives for the private sector in Ports by R$ 47 billion Electric Energy 92 33.6
consolidating the new regulation
Telecommunications 67 24.5
Appropriate public c/ private sources
Railway & Sanitation Dependent on gov´t budget Execution and implementation of R$ 69 billion Sanitation 39 14.2
Investment projects
Railway 29 10.6
Investments in specific market niches: 3G
Telecommunications Competition
Technology, WINMAX and Digital TV
R$ 67 billion
Highway Transport 33 12.0
Large hydroelectric plants in the North Ports 14 5.1
Eletric Energy Licensing (Jirau, Sto. Antônio & Belo Monte), Angra III R$ 92 billion
Nuclear Plant and wind-power plants
Infrastructure 274 100.0
Source: APE/BNDES
Source: Investment Work Team. Elaborated by APE/BNDES.
6 3
Table 2 Telecommunications Severance Pay Fund (FGTS), Workers’
Growth in Mapped Investments in Infrastructure 2010-2013 Ever since its expressive cycle of Support Fund (FAT) and market sources,
Amounts (R$ billion) Growth investments between 1997 and 2001, the such as Investment Funds in Federal
Sectors
2005-2008 2010-2013 % % p.a. telecommunications sector has posted Deposit Insurance Corporations (FDICs)
Electric Energy 68 92 35.7 6.3 less intensive investment into capital. due to the easy guarantees permitted
Telecommunications 66 67 0.8 0.2 While this is because its investments are in the sector; iv) non-onerous resources
Sanitation 22 39 77.1 12.1 rather concentrated in time, there are of the Federal Budget (OGU)
Railways 16 29 81.7 12.7 two other fundamental determining (agreements with the Ministries of Cities,
Highway Transport 23 33 45.4 7.8 factors. The first is the need to keep Integration and Health/Brazilian
Ports 5 14 203.0 24.8 investments to a minimum, solely for Foundation of Health); v) the private
Infrastructure 199 274 37.3 6.5 maintenance and updating installed sector’s strong investment in the sector,
capacity, such as the amounts which aims at representing close to 30%
Source: Investment Work Team. Elaborated by APE/BNDES. established by the Brazilian of concessions in the next 10 years.
Telecommunications Regulatory Agency
(Anatel). The second is related to Railways
already basking in the post-investment annual increase of over 6.0%. The competition, in which companies com- In the railway sector, investments are
boom – and sanitation, with main projects, for the 2010-2013 pete in specific market niches, estimated at R$ 30 billion, corresponding
investments to the tune of R$ 67 billion period, include hydroelectric plants introducing new technologies seeking to to an average annual growth rate of
and R$ 39 billion, respectively. within the scope of the federal boost their market share. Examples of 13%. These investments are the result
In Table 2, projected investments in government’s Growth Acceleration this include the 3G mobile telephone of: (i) the expansion of the existing
infrastructure for the 2010-2013 period Program (PAC). Highlights include the service, the dissemination of digital TV network, with new lines and the
are compared to those made between hydroelectric plants in Jirau and Santo and the use of the Winmax service for expansion of the Transnordestina, Nor-
2005 and 2008. Such figures clearly Antônio, both on the Madeira River, internet access (broad band wireless and te-Sul and Ferronorte-Rondonópolis lines,
show the current phases within the cycle estimated at more than R$ 23 billion distance system). Within this scenario, among others; and (ii) the plan to
– acceleration, stability and of which a large portion is set to be the sector has relatively stable implement the High-Speed Train (TAV)
deceleration – for each sector. The ge- used over the next four years – close investments set for the 2013-2010 between Campinas and Rio de Janeiro.
neral data indicate an accumulated to R$ 20 billion. Besides this, in the period vis-à-vis 2005-2008.
growth rate of 38.6% for investments same period, the cost for the Highway Transport
in infrastructure, which means real hydroelectric plant in Belo Monte is Sanitation In this sector, mapped investments reach
growth of 6.5% p.a. throughout the estimated at around R$ 8 billion. In the sanitation sector, between 2013 R$ 33 billion, representing an accumulated
2010-2013 period. Another large-scale project in the energy and 2010, investments totaling R$ 39 increase of 45% in the 2013-2010 period
Following is a list of the main features sector is the Angra III Nuclear Plant, with billion are projected, almost doubling the in comparison with 2005-2008, that is,
and determining factors for investments investments forecast to reach up to R$ 4 amount invested in the 2005-2008 an average annual expansion rate of
in infrastructure for each sector: billion between 2010 and 2013. period. Driving factors for such projects 7.8%. The main projects in this sector
Lastly, there are another 70 are not solely those within the federal are concentrated in new concessions of
Electric Energy investments projects in the wind-power government’s PAC program; they also the existing system – the 2nd Stage of the
In the electric energy sector, as sector for which auctions have already include: i) the release of blocked credit Federal Program and the 2nd Stage of the
previously mentioned, it is estimated been held. Together, the forecast for to the public sector (municipal and São Paulo state program –, which
that investments will reach close to R$ such investments totals almost R$ 8 sanitation companies); ii) offering credit together add a further 5,000 kilometers
92 billion, representing an average billion for the next three years. in appropriate amounts – Workers’ to the existing 15,000 kilometer network.
4 5
Table 2 Telecommunications Severance Pay Fund (FGTS), Workers’
Growth in Mapped Investments in Infrastructure 2010-2013 Ever since its expressive cycle of Support Fund (FAT) and market sources,
Amounts (R$ billion) Growth investments between 1997 and 2001, the such as Investment Funds in Federal
Sectors
2005-2008 2010-2013 % % p.a. telecommunications sector has posted Deposit Insurance Corporations (FDICs)
Electric Energy 68 92 35.7 6.3 less intensive investment into capital. due to the easy guarantees permitted
Telecommunications 66 67 0.8 0.2 While this is because its investments are in the sector; iv) non-onerous resources
Sanitation 22 39 77.1 12.1 rather concentrated in time, there are of the Federal Budget (OGU)
Railways 16 29 81.7 12.7 two other fundamental determining (agreements with the Ministries of Cities,
Highway Transport 23 33 45.4 7.8 factors. The first is the need to keep Integration and Health/Brazilian
Ports 5 14 203.0 24.8 investments to a minimum, solely for Foundation of Health); v) the private
Infrastructure 199 274 37.3 6.5 maintenance and updating installed sector’s strong investment in the sector,
capacity, such as the amounts which aims at representing close to 30%
Source: Investment Work Team. Elaborated by APE/BNDES. established by the Brazilian of concessions in the next 10 years.
Telecommunications Regulatory Agency
(Anatel). The second is related to Railways
already basking in the post-investment annual increase of over 6.0%. The competition, in which companies com- In the railway sector, investments are
boom – and sanitation, with main projects, for the 2010-2013 pete in specific market niches, estimated at R$ 30 billion, corresponding
investments to the tune of R$ 67 billion period, include hydroelectric plants introducing new technologies seeking to to an average annual growth rate of
and R$ 39 billion, respectively. within the scope of the federal boost their market share. Examples of 13%. These investments are the result
In Table 2, projected investments in government’s Growth Acceleration this include the 3G mobile telephone of: (i) the expansion of the existing
infrastructure for the 2010-2013 period Program (PAC). Highlights include the service, the dissemination of digital TV network, with new lines and the
are compared to those made between hydroelectric plants in Jirau and Santo and the use of the Winmax service for expansion of the Transnordestina, Nor-
2005 and 2008. Such figures clearly Antônio, both on the Madeira River, internet access (broad band wireless and te-Sul and Ferronorte-Rondonópolis lines,
show the current phases within the cycle estimated at more than R$ 23 billion distance system). Within this scenario, among others; and (ii) the plan to
– acceleration, stability and of which a large portion is set to be the sector has relatively stable implement the High-Speed Train (TAV)
deceleration – for each sector. The ge- used over the next four years – close investments set for the 2013-2010 between Campinas and Rio de Janeiro.
neral data indicate an accumulated to R$ 20 billion. Besides this, in the period vis-à-vis 2005-2008.
growth rate of 38.6% for investments same period, the cost for the Highway Transport
in infrastructure, which means real hydroelectric plant in Belo Monte is Sanitation In this sector, mapped investments reach
growth of 6.5% p.a. throughout the estimated at around R$ 8 billion. In the sanitation sector, between 2013 R$ 33 billion, representing an accumulated
2010-2013 period. Another large-scale project in the energy and 2010, investments totaling R$ 39 increase of 45% in the 2013-2010 period
Following is a list of the main features sector is the Angra III Nuclear Plant, with billion are projected, almost doubling the in comparison with 2005-2008, that is,
and determining factors for investments investments forecast to reach up to R$ 4 amount invested in the 2005-2008 an average annual expansion rate of
in infrastructure for each sector: billion between 2010 and 2013. period. Driving factors for such projects 7.8%. The main projects in this sector
Lastly, there are another 70 are not solely those within the federal are concentrated in new concessions of
Electric Energy investments projects in the wind-power government’s PAC program; they also the existing system – the 2nd Stage of the
In the electric energy sector, as sector for which auctions have already include: i) the release of blocked credit Federal Program and the 2nd Stage of the
previously mentioned, it is estimated been held. Together, the forecast for to the public sector (municipal and São Paulo state program –, which
that investments will reach close to R$ such investments totals almost R$ 8 sanitation companies); ii) offering credit together add a further 5,000 kilometers
92 billion, representing an average billion for the next three years. in appropriate amounts – Workers’ to the existing 15,000 kilometer network.
4 5
Summary Table on Investments in Infrastructure Table4-1 Geração Líq. de Empregos por Região e Participação de cada Região no
Tabela
Sectors Critical Factors Perspectives
Investiments no Saldo Líquido
Mapped Investments in Infrastructure Total
2010-2013
2010-2013 Sectors R$ billion %
Expansion of Highway Concessions; and
Ports & Highway Transport Regulation (Concession) incentives for the private sector in Ports by R$ 47 billion Electric Energy 92 33.6
consolidating the new regulation
Telecommunications 67 24.5
Appropriate public c/ private sources
Railway & Sanitation Dependent on gov´t budget Execution and implementation of R$ 69 billion Sanitation 39 14.2
Investment projects
Railway 29 10.6
Investments in specific market niches: 3G
Telecommunications Competition
Technology, WINMAX and Digital TV
R$ 67 billion
Highway Transport 33 12.0
Large hydroelectric plants in the North Ports 14 5.1
Eletric Energy Licensing (Jirau, Sto. Antônio & Belo Monte), Angra III R$ 92 billion
Nuclear Plant and wind-power plants
Infrastructure 274 100.0
Source: APE/BNDES
Source: Investment Work Team. Elaborated by APE/BNDES.
6 3
second half of 2008, more frequent Amounts appeared to the tune of R$ Dynamic competition in the Efforts to expand investments in the
follow-up of the data was carried out, 274 billion. As in previous research, this telecommunication sector forces large infrastructure segment have been rather
revealing that the investment horizon study includes sectors such as: electric companies to make investments in successful. As of the worsening of the
had become more volatile. Even so, there energy, telecommunications, sanitation specific market segments. Constant and international crisis in mid-2008,
was strong resilience in some sectors, and logistics (highways, railways and swift technological changes intensify the investments linked to infrastructure
such as oil & gas and those linked to ports). This is a representative group of cross-sectorial dispute in the quest for remained practically stable. With this, the
basic infrastructure. For investments into sectors, as it corresponds to 95% of the proportional market share gains. mid-term outlook for investments is
industry, the impact of the crisis was total investments in infrastructure in The large-scale projects to build positive. Project mapping in
much more severe, especially in the 2008, according to the BNDES’ hydroelectric plants in the North of the infrastructure sectors for the 2010-2013
export segments. estimates. country depend on the bureaucracy and period reveal an investment potential of
Now that the peak in the international regulation to which they are subject. The R$ 276 billion, that is, accumulated
financial crisis has subsided, the aim of Investments in Infrastructure timing between obtaining the required growth of 38.6% compared to the 2005-
this edition of Brazilian Economic licensing and adjusting the specific 2008 period. Electric energy, sanitation
Insights is to present a fresh look at the Investments in infrastructure are vitally project conditions does not only reduce and logistics are the areas that stand out
investment perspectives in infrastructure, relevant to the economy. They not only the cost of investment, but also makes from the pack. Investment decisions are
focusing, now, on the 2010-2013 period. increase systemic competitiveness – it feasible to appropriately expand the strongly influenced by public policies and
supply of electric energy to the country. regulations.
The positive outlook for investments
Chart 1 Conclusion simultaneously offers both significant
Evolution of investments in electric energy and telecommunications benefits and challenges to the country.
(In R$ billions) Characteristics of projects in the Investments in basic sanitation bring
40 infrastructure area include their large about a significant social impact, while
Forecast scale, their long-term nature and the electric energy projects, in their turn, help
35 sheer size of the resources required. sustain economic growth and increase
Electric Energy Such projects are of strategic productivity in the economy. Still, the
30 importance, both in terms of systemic challenge to sustain growth in
competitiveness through multiplying investments is expected to be more
25 effects and maintaining high, long-term intense than over the last few years. As
Telecom. economic growth through acceleration. the external markets are in the initial
20 As of 2007, investment growth became stages of recovery, long-term structural
routine in the Brazilian economy, having public policies (PAC, PDP, PICTI) will most
15 begun in the industrial segment. Sectors likely take on more importance. Large-
connected to basic infrastructure gained scale projects in the infrastructure area
10 more importance, reaffirmed by the will require new regulatory
launch of the PAC, a federal government improvements, as well as stable, long-
5 program aimed at expanding and term financing mechanisms, coupled with
sustaining public investment in the integrated efforts from public and private
0 sector, while simultaneously maintaining banks and the capital market.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
a positive approach in terms of long-term
Source: Investment Work Team. Elaborated by APE/BNDES. expectations in the private sector.
2 7
Brazilian Economic
Insights
Nº. 77 February 22, 2010
Investment perspectives
in the Infrastructure
sector in 2010-2013
By Gilberto Rodrigues Borça Junior Based on data available at the
If you wish to receive the following editions of and Pedro Quaresma institution, the BNDES has periodically
Economists in APE investigated the investment perspectives
this publication send an e-mail to within the Brazilian economy since 2006.
visao.do.desenvolvimento@bndes.gov.br. Such research is unique as it is grounded
BNDES mapping The BNDES is the on technical knowledge in sectorial
foresees an main financing divisions within the Bank, which, thanks
injection of R$ bank for long-term to access to company investment plans,
274 billion into
investments in are better qualified to analyze the path
the sector
industry and to be taken in a diverse range of sectors.
infrastructure in Brazil. For this reason, it Research conducted in 2006 and 2007
maintains a stable relationship with the managed to foresee the investment cycle
majority of companies related to these that was gaining momentum.
segments, determinedly accompanying Throughout the worst months of the
the trends of other markets. As it is a international financial crisis, as of the
development bank, companies see it as
a strategic partner, fostering a wider
Brazilian Economic Insights is a publication by
network of information sharing. Such a
the Economic Research Division (APE) of the
position makes the BNDES an important Brazilian Development Bank. The opinions in
locus, pooling together a wealth of data this publication are the responsibility of the
concerning investment prospects in authors and do not necessarily reflect the
production in Brazil. point of view of the BNDES’ management.