LRProbabilistic Notes

Presentation of Probabilistic
Damage Stability regulations,

New SPS Code and MARPOL
Regulation 12A
Jens Peter Baltsersen,

Senior Surveyor in Charge, Naval Architect
Henrik Erichsen,
Senior Surveyor, Naval Architect
LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Copenhagen Design Support Centre
Agenda
• Probabilistic Damage Stability – 45 min

By Jens Peter Baltsersen
• The Special Purpose Code (SPS) – 10 min
By Henrik Erichsen
• MARPOL Regulation 12A – 15 min
By Henrik Erichsen
• Questions / discussions - 5 min

Probabilistic Damage Stability Regulations

What Does PROBABILISTIC Damage Stability Mean?
PROBABILISTIC = PROBABILITY!
Probability that a certain compartment in the ship is damaged!

Short Historical Review
Passenger Ships: Dry Cargo Ships:

• IMO Res. A265 – Probabilistic • 1992: Damage Stability regulations
Damage Stability regulation (1973) for ships > 100 m
• SOLAS 90 / 98 - Deterministic • 1998: Damage Stability regulations
Damage Stability regulation for ships between 80 m and
• Stockholm Agreement (1998) 100 m included in the
existing regulations
Water on Deck
HARMONIZATION!

• Harmonization started in the 1980ties by development of the

probabilistic damage stability requirements for dry cargo ships
• Passenger ships should have been included in the probabilistic
framework keeping the same level of safety
• 1992-1998: Harmonization process developing probabilistic damage SLF42-3
stability regulations for both dry cargo ships and passenger ships Proposal
• 2001: EU Project HARDER
• ”Back to basic”!
• Damage Statistics
• Model Tests
• Verification
• New designs using the new frame work
• 2005: The proposed damage stability regulations was adopted by MSC
20 May 2005 at the 80 session (Resolution MSC.194(80))

1st January 2009

The new probabilistic damage stability requirements
(revised SOLAS part B-1) will enter into force


Requirements (revised SOLAS Part B-1)
Which ship types are covered?
All Passenger Ships: Dry Cargo Ships (L>80 m):

• Pure Passenger Ships • Container Ships
• RoRo Cargo ships
• RoRo Passenger Ships
• Car Carriers
• Cruise Vessels • General Cargo ships
• Bulkcarriers having reduced
freeboard and deck cargo
(IACS Unified interpretation no. 65)
• (Cable Laying Vessels)

The following ship types are not affected:
• Offshore supply vessels (IMO Resolution MSC.235(82))

• Special Purpose Ships (IMO Resolution A.534(13))*
• Special Trade Passenger Ships ”Pilgrim Trade” (1971)
• High Speed Crafts (HSC Code 2000)
• Tankers (MARPOL 73/78)
• Ships covered by Reg. 27 of the LL Convention
• Ships Carrying Dangerous Chemicals in Bulk (IBC Code)
• Ships Carrying Liquefied Gases in Bulk (ICG Code)
* SPS Code currently under revision and will be linked closely to the new SOLAS
damage stability requirements

Damage Stability Concept:
A≥R
Attained Subdivision Index Required Index R

A = Σ pi si 1. Cargo ships L > 100 m
2. Cargo Ships L > 80 m (and
below 100 m)
3. Passenger ships

What have changed?
Calculation now based on 3 draughts

• Deepest Subdivision Draught ds
• Light Service Draught dl
• Partial Subdivision Draught dp
Level trim ds
Level trim
100% dp
60% Service trim
Mean draught d l
dl

Summation of attained index:
A = 0.4As + 0.4Ap + 0.2Al
Assuming that a ship will trade:

40% of it’s time at the deepest subdivision draught
40% of it’s time at the partial subdivision draught
20% of it’s time at the lightest service draught
Minimum attained index on each draught:
Each of the partial indices As , Ap and Al are not to be less than 0.9R for
passenger ships and 0.5R for cargo ships!

Trim: If the operational trim range of a vessel exceeds ±0,5% of Ls
then probabilistic damage stability calculations with trim should
be supplied
Several GM limit Curves have

to be presented !

Pi-factor: Probability that only the compartment or group of
compartments under consideration may be flooded.
• The parameters used for the determination of pi have been changed

in the revised regulations
• Maximum damage length changed from 48 m to 60 m
• Damages of B/2 should be assumed (allowing penetration of
longitudinal centre line bulkheads)

Subdivision: There are no rules for the subdividing except that the
length Ls defines the extremes for the actual hull.
However, it is important to consider a strategy carefully to
obtain a good result (large attained index A.)
Z1 Z2 Z3
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Z10 Z11
Ls

Subdivision:
The figure illustrates the possible
single and multiple zone damages
in a ship with a watertight
arrangement suitable for a seven-
Ls
zone division.
The triangles at the bottom line
Max damage length

indicate single zone damages and
the parallelograms indicate
adjacent zones damages.
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7
Ls

Penetration factor r:
• Factor r is the probability that a longitudinal bulkhead will not be
breached by the damage. For each longitudinal bulkhead inside the
ship’s side, an r-value will be calculated. The sum of all r-values from
the shell to the B/2 limit equals unity
• Factor p will be adjusted with factor r to obtain the final joint factor p
Damages of B/2 is now assumed (allowing

penetration of longitudinal centre line bulkheads)

• By default, damages should extend to B/2
• A limit before B/2 can, however, be set
B/2 line Not included in the

index

• Grey + Blue for a zone -> Σr = 1 (until B/2)
• Blue for a zone not extending to B/2 -> Σr < 1
B/2 line Not included in the index

Factor v:
• The factor v represents the probability that a watertight deck above the
waterline remains intact, or in other words, whether or not the bow of
an arbitrary ramming ship will be higher than the deck in question.
The maximum vertical extent of damage above a given

waterline have changed from 7 m to 12.5 m!

Factor v:
Individual v-factors:
• If H – d ≤ 0 → vi = 0
• If H – d ≤ 7.8 → vi = 0.8(H - d) / 7.8
• If 7.8 < H – d < 12.5 → vi = 0.8 + 0.2((H - d) - 7.8) / 4.7
• If H - d ≥ 12.5 → vi = 1
Accumulated v-factors:
• v = v1 + (v2 - v1) +…. + (1 - vn)

Survivability Factor si:
The value of “si” represents the probability of survival after flooding the
zone “i" under consideration, and includes the probability of any horizontal
subdivision remaining effective.
Passenger ships: Cargo ships:

Si = minimum { Sintermediate,I or Sfinal,i·Smom,i } Si = Sfinal,i

Intermediate Stages of Flooding:
• Sintermediate,i is the probability to survive all intermediate stages of flooding
until the final equilibrium stage
• Only applicable to passenger ships!
1/ 4
⎡ GZ max Range ⎤
Sintermediate,i = ⎢ ⋅
⎣ 0 .05 7 ⎥⎦
Where GZmax is not to be taken as more than 0.05 m and Range as not more
than 7°. Sintermediate,i = 0 if the intermediate heel exceeds 15°.
Where cross-flooding fittings are required, the time for equalization shall
not exceed 10 min.

Heeling Moments:
• Smom,i is the probability to survive heeling moments
• Only applicable to passenger ships!
(GZ max − 0.04) ⋅ Displacement

Smom,i = ≤1
M heel
The heeling moments Mheel is to be calculated as follows:
Mheel = maximum { Mpassenger or Mwind or Msurvivalcraft }

Openings and evacuation routes:
• It is very important to take into account all weathertight and unprotected
openings as they can have a large effect on the attained index!
• The margin line definition is no longer in the regulations
• Evacuation routes have been included instead
Si is to be taken as zero (no survivability) if:

• The lower edge of unprotected or weathertight openings through which
progressive flooding may take place, immerses,
• Any part of the bulkhead deck in passenger ship considered a horizontal
evacuation route or any vertical escape hatch will be immersed etc.
• Immersion of control for operation of watertight doors, valves etc.

Minor Damages for Passenger Ships (Regulation 8):
In order not to capsize due to a very small damage, a minor damage concept
for passenger ships have been introduced in the new regulations.
• Deterministic concept stating that a passenger ship have to survive a given

damage extent.
• Damage extent depending on the number of passengers.
• 2 compartment damages!

Double Bottom Damages (Regulation 9):
A double bottom shall be fitted extending from the collision bulkhead to the
aft peak bulkhead.
Any part of a passenger ship or a cargo ship that is not fitted with a double
bottom in accordance with the specifications given in Reg. 9 shall be capable
of withstanding bottom damages as specified in the regulation 9, paragraph
8 in that part of the ship!

Permeability:
The permeability of a compartment intended for cargo is now depending on

the draught!
Spaces Permeability Permeability Permeability

at draught ds at draught dp at draught dl
Dry cargo spaces 0.70 0.80 0.95
Container spaces 0.70 0.80 0.95
Ro-ro spaces 0.90 0.90 0.95
Cargo liquids 0.70 0.80 0.95


Work currently being carried out at
IMO, SLF Committee
• Explanatory Notes for the new probabilistic regulations – draft

submitted to SLF 50 – to be finalized i 2008
• Passenger Ship Safety
- development of criteria for ”safe return to port” either under
own power or under tow
- time to flood simulations
- requirements for water ingress detection and flood level
monitoring systems
• Inclusion of the Special Purpose Ships in the new SOLAS B-1
• Revision of IMO Res. A.266 ”Cross-flooding”
• MSC/Circ.650 “modification of a major character"
• Revision of the Intact Stability Code
• What about the ”Stockholm Agreement” after 2009?

Revision of the SPS Code
Code of Safety for Special Purpose
Ships - Resolution A.534(13)

Which ships are covered by the SPS Code:

• Ships engaged in research, expeditions and survey;
• Ships for training of marine personnel;
• Whale and fish factory ships not engaged in catching;
• Ships processing other living resources of the sea, not engaged in
catching;
• Other ships with design features and modes of operation similar
to ships referred above which in the opinion of the
Administration may be referred to this group.
Ships with many people onboard !

• “Special personnel” means all persons who are not passengers or

members of the crew (or children of under one year of age) and
who are carried on board in connection with the special purpose
of that ship or because of special work being carried out aboard
that ship.
• Wherever in the SPS Code, the number of special personnel
appears as a parameter it should include the number of
passengers carried on board which may not exceed 12.
The requirements in the SPS Code depends on how many ”special

personnel” are carried!
MANY PERSONS – STRICTER REQUIREMENTS!

The SPS Code, IMO Resolution

A.534(13) is currently under
revision in IMO.
WHY?
• To update references to
current rules and regulations;
• To reflect the new damage
stability requirements in
SOLAS, Chapter II-1 coming
into force 1 January 2009

The draft for the new SPS Code – Damage Stability:
• Based on the probabilistic concept A ≥ R

• Based on the revised SOLAS Chapter II-1, Part B-1
• Based on the requirements for passenger ships!
• Still based on the number of ”special personnel” onboard
1. below [50 special personnel] / [60 persons]
2. between [50 and 200 special personnel] / [60 and 240 persons]
3. more than [200 special personnel] / [240 persons]

Damage Stability Concept:
A≥R
Attained Subdivision Index:

A = Σ pi si
Required Index R:
1. More than [200 special personnel] [240 persons] – R value as passenger ship
2. Less than [50 special personnel] [60 persons] – 0.8R (passenger ship)
3. Between [50 but not more than 200 special personnel] [60 but not more than
240 persons], the R value to be determined by linear interpolation

Vessels with more than [200
special personnel] [240 persons]:
Revised SOLAS Chapter II-1, reg. 8

and part B-2, B-3 and B-4 applies
as though the ship is a passenger
ship and the special personnel
are passengers.
- Minor damages
- Watertight and Weathertight
Subdivision
- Stability Management

Vessels with less than [200 special
personnel] [240 persons]:
Revised SOLAS Chapter II-1, part

B-2, B-3 and B-4 applies as
though the ship is a cargo ship
and the special personnel are
crew.
HOWEVER!
All SPS vessels must comply with

the revised SOLAS Chapter II-1,
regulation 9, 13, 19, 20, 21 and
35-1 as a passenger ship!

MARPOL Annex I
Regulation 12A
Oil fuel tank protection

Regulation 12A - Oil fuel tank protection
• Applies to all vessels delivered on or after 1 August 2010 with an

aggregate oil fuel capacity of 600m3 and above:
• Delivered defined as:

Building contract placed on or after 1 August 2007 or;
If no contract, keels laid on or after 1 February 2008 or;
The delivery of which is on or after 1 August 2010.
• Also applies to vessels which undergo a ‘major conversion’ in

accordance with same dates.

• Applies to all oil fuel tanks except small oil fuel tanks, provided that
the aggregate capacity of such excluded tanks is not greater than
600m3
• Oil Fuel means any oil used as fuel oil in connection with the
propulsion and auxiliary machinery.
• “Small oil fuel tanks” is an oil fuel tank with a maximum individual
capacity not greater than 30m3
• Individual oil fuel tanks maximum capacity of 2,500m3

Tanks to be located above the bottom shell plating at a distance of ‘h’

where:
h = B/20 m or 2.0 m
whichever is less
Minimum h = 0.76 m.

Tanks to be located inboard of the

side shell plating at least distance
‘w’ where:
1. Ships with oil fuel capacity of
600m3 to 5000m3:
w = 0.4 + 2.4C / 20,000 m where
C = total oil fuel volume
Minimum w = 1.0 m (except for

individual tanks with a capacity <
500m3 minimum w = 0.76m.)
2. Ships with oil fuel capacity of
5000m3 and over:
w = 0.5 + C / 20,000 m or,
w = 2.0 m whichever is the lesser.
Minimum w = 1.0 m.


• Tanks with oil fuel piping located within ‘h’ and ‘w’ distances from
the ship’s bottom and side shell to have special valve arrangements
fitted.
• Suction wells in oil fuel tanks may protrude into the double bottom
below ‘h’ provided such wells are as small as practicable and that the
distance between the well bottom and the bottom shell plating is not
less than 0.5h.
ALTERNATIVE to side and bottom protection requirements

• Comply with the accidental oil fuel outflow performance standard in
regulation12A

The Accidental Oil Fuel Outflow Performance Standard:
• Probabilistic Concept!
• Mean Oil Outflow Parameter OM
OM ≤ 0.0157 – 1.14E-6C for 600 m3 ≤ C < 5000 m3

OM ≤ 0.010 for C ≥ 5000 m3
C = Total oil fuel volume onboard

Assumptions for the Mean Oil Outflow Calculation:
• Ship assumed loaded to the partial loadline dp

• All oil fuel tanks assumed loaded to 98% of their volumetric capacity
• Nominal density of fuel oil taken as 1000 kg/m3
• For the purpose of the outflow calculations, the permeability of each
oil fuel tank shall be taken as 0.99, unless proved otherwise.
• The calculation of the Mean Oil Outflow Parameter is based on a

combination of side damages and bottom damages:
OM = (0.4OMS + 0.6OMB)/C
OMS = Mean outflow for side damage [m3]

OMB = Mean outflow for bottom damage [m3]

Mean outflow for side damage OMS:

n
• OMS = ∑ PS(i )OS(i )
i
PS(i) = The probability of penetrating oil fuel tank i from side damage
OS(i) = The outflow, in m3, from side damage to oil fuel tank i, which is
assumed equal to the total volume in oil fuel tank i at 98% filling.
i = each oil fuel tank under consideration
n = total number of oil fuel tanks

Mean outflow for bottom damage OMB:
• OMB = 0.7OMB(0) + 0.3OMB(2.5)
where:
OMB(0) = Mean outflow for 0 m tide condition;

OMB(2.5) = Mean outflow for -2.5 m tide condition.
The mean outflow for bottom damage shall be calculated for each tidel
condition as follows:
n
• OMb(0) = ∑ PB(i )OB(i )CDB(i ) , 0 m tide condition
i

Mean outflow for bottom damage OMB:
n
• OMb(2.5) = ∑ PB(i )OB(i )CDB(i ) , -2.5 m tide condition
i
where:
PB(i) = The probability of penetrating oil fuel tank i from bottom damage
OB(i) = The outflow, in m3, from bottom damage to oil fuel tank i.
CDB(i) = Factor to account for oil capture in other tanks
i = each oil fuel tank under consideration
n = total number of oil fuel tanks

Practical Experience:
• Regulation 12A is a MAJOR design driver for newbuildings as should be

taken seriously in the early design fase.
• In some ship types, it is difficult to find enough space for the protected
fuel oil tanks.
• Will have a major impact on conversions in the future.
• The probabilistic oil outflow performance standard in Regulation 12A is
difficult to fulfil.

For more information, please contact:
Lloyd’s Register EMEA

Statutory Section
Strandvejen 104A
DK-2900 Hellerup
Denmark
T +45 32 96 18 00 The Lloyd’s Register Group

F +45 32 96 18 81 works to enhance safety and
E jens.baltsersen@lr.org approve assets and systems at
E henrik.erichsen@lr.org sea, on land and in the air –
because life matters.
Services are provided by members of the Lloyd’s Register Group

Lloyd’s Register, Lloyd’s Register EMEA and Lloyd’s Register Asia are
exempt charities under the UK Charities Act 1993.


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Presentation of Probabilistic

Damage Stability regulations,

Jens Peter Baltsersen,

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

• Probabilistic Damage Stability – 45 min

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

What Does PROBABILISTIC Damage Stability Mean?

Probability that a certain compartment in the ship is damaged!

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Passenger Ships: Dry Cargo Ships:

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

• Harmonization started in the 1980ties by development of the

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

1st January 2009

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

All Passenger Ships: Dry Cargo Ships (L>80 m):

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

• Offshore supply vessels (IMO Resolution MSC.235(82))

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Attained Subdivision Index Required Index R

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Calculation now based on 3 draughts

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

A = 0.4As + 0.4Ap + 0.2Al

Assuming that a ship will trade:

Minimum attained index on each draught:

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Several GM limit Curves have

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

• The parameters used for the determination of pi have been changed

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Max damage length

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Damages of B/2 is now assumed (allowing

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

B/2 line Not included in the

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

B/2 line Not included in the index

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

The maximum vertical extent of damage above a given

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Passenger ships: Cargo ships:

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

(GZ max − 0.04) ⋅ Displacement

The heeling moments Mheel is to be calculated as follows:

Mheel = maximum { Mpassenger or Mwind or Msurvivalcraft }

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

Si is to be taken as zero (no survivability) if:

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

• Deterministic concept stating that a passenger ship have to survive a given

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

The permeability of a compartment intended for cargo is now depending on

Spaces Permeability Permeability Permeability

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

LLOYD’S REGISTER EMEA

• Explanatory Notes for the new probabilistic regulations – draft