Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
Outline
The Challenge
• Aim for zero carbon electricity + Energy Gap = Major investment need
• Price volatility - Need for future storage and demand side management
2
Steve Argent Senior Consultant
BSc(Hons), CEng, FIET, MIAM, Eur-Ing
3 steve.argent@arup.com
Arup
the creative force behind many of the world's most innovative projects
founded in 1946
employee owned
~10,000 staff
Americas Europe East Asia Australasia ~ £700M turnover
4
Broad range of expertise
- including ENERGY and TRANSPORT
5
Plus related/supporting Specialist Technical Services
6
Arup also a member of ITPOES - the UK
Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
(+ Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solar Century, Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group. )
7 http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/
The Challenges
Decarbonising electricity
Decarbonising transport
Security and Affordability
8
UK Electricity ENERGY JUNCTION
9
Major challenge to meet UK GHG Emissions targets
?
Reduction since 1990 mainly
due to “dash for gas”
10
UK Energy Markets
Outlook 2009 plus
Ofgem Project Discovery
www.ofgem.gov.uk/Markets/WhlMkts/Discovery/Pages/ProjectDiscovery.aspx
www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/markets/outlook/outlook.aspx
11
UK Electricity generating UK electricity generated in 2008
capacity by technology
in 2008
?
LCPD
closures
by 2015
in next
5-10 years
12
Shrinking existing capacity
13
Uncertain demand and
future generation mix
Peak Electricity Demand (source National Grid) Generation mix in 2020 - by scenario
14
Possible New build UK electricity generating capacity.
Source: Redpoint analysis for response to CCS consultation
Equivalent to two
thirds of existing
capacity
At a rate of approx
2 GW per year
15
Increasing Price Volatility in Future
Greater variations in electricity prices predicted
• as a result of the increasing amount of [high capital cost] generating
capacity with low running costs
• but with increasing running cost of conventional plant
16
For Green Scenarios
Project Discovery
• With high wind/renewables, the GB system
will increasingly rely on CCGTs to operate
flexibly (and at lower annual load factor) in the
future
17
Poyry Report
– July 2009
How wind
variability
could
change the
shape of UK
and Irish
electricity
markets
18
Coal CCS new build
Cars plug in hybrid Power plant
Biomass co-firing
Nuclear
Low penetration
Wind
Context
Global car fleet predicted to triple by 2050
Can this be reconciled with ambitious CO2 reduction?
Impacts of vehicle charging on the electric grid?
Arup/Cenex study for BERR plus recent Element Energy Report
Future electric vehicle scenarios for UK
19
So – what’s the solution?
and will the current market deliver it?
20
Possible new generation
some more ‘low carbon’ than others
So what
drives
choice?
Wave Tidal Solar/CSP Offshore Wind
21
Capex or unit price as drivers of generation choice?
“wholesale”
Source: PB Power Power to the Nation 2006 Source: Ofgem Discovery 2009
22
Factors which drive electricity generation investment
Not just unit cost estimates (levelised £/MWh) which used to drive
nationalised industry investment.
Now more complex as it requires a view on future costs, cashflow,
risks and uncertainty.
• Government employ regulations and incentives to steer market
outcome, but even generous incentives may not always deliver as
expected.
23
UK energy policy is no longer fit for purpose
Overview
• Existing nuclear power assets in the UK are fraught with
performance failures and new nuclear is unlikely before 2020
• Much needed new coal build is politically and environmentally
unpopular and challenged by environmental regulations
• UK renewables ambitions will be very costly, will not be met, will
not alleviate climate change and may reduce security of supply
• The UK will grow dependant on gas, gas and more gas as it fills
the energy gap and backs up intermittent wind to 2020
• The recession will ease power demand and carbon emissions, but
will also delay investment in Britain’s energy infrastructure
24
Ofgem Project Discovery
findings so far
• High levels of investment are likely to be needed – up to £200 billion
may be required by 2020.
• more than doubling the recent rate of investment.
25
Ofgem Project Discovery conclusions
• Ofgem doubts that the current market will deliver
secure and sustainable energy supplies
• Ofgem recommends far reaching market reforms
(and prompt action)
26
Are Electric Vehicles part of the solution?
Global Emissions by sector
27
Cenex / ARUP report for DfT and BERR in 2008
Key findings:
• By 2030,
• 4m EVs and PHEVs
• 9m Tonnes CO2 saving / year
• Reduce UK road transport
emissions by 9%
28 www.berr.gov.uk/files/file48653.pdf
Energy and propulsion alternatives are many.
Arup Cenex study focussed on EV and PHEV
Gaseous
Fuels ICE Hybrid
Electrification
Natural Gas
Battery
Plug-
Plug-In Hybrid PHEV
Biomass
Electricity
29
Approximate differences in efficiency
100 ICV
20
45 35
50
100 EV
30
31
Electrification of Transport
Overview
The Arup/Cenex study examined a number of factors which will influence the
development, uptake and impact of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid
vehicles within the UK.
33
Electric Vehicle – Grid Issues
Before considering the grid impacts of electric vehicle charging, necessary to consider how
the grid system operates and variations in national electricity demand that currently occur.
34
Daily Electricity Demand Variation Profiles
35
Incentives for a flatter demand profile
• Prices in the [current] wholesale electricity market vary by the half hour to
reflect the varying cost of generation, incentivising extra generation at
peak and encouraging more demand overnight. Balancing market shows
variations from £40 to £120 per MWh within a day.
• Most domestic customers currently pay for their electricity based on a
standard (single) tariff rate (Only some domestic/smaller comercial
customers have dual rate tariffs with lower overnight tariff + higher
daytime tariff.)
• In future, as renewables impose additional variability on other generation,
more advanced tariffs may be used (via smart meters) to encourage
demand when generation is available.
• Of course this may no longer be solely overnight, depending on wind
conditions etc.
36
Demand response
37
“Reserve” frequency response possibilities
The frequency is the same in the A chip of the size of a credit card
whole interconnected GB can measure frequency and
disconnect load in milliseconds –
power system,
far faster than production can be
increased
No communication is needed
Technology already being tested on
domestic appliances (“grid
friendly” fridges)
38
EV Charging demand assumed in Arup study
The total demand from all vehicles with the ability to connect to the
grid is shown in the following chart.
39
Importance of “incentivised” EV charging
• Assuming that charging demand is chiefly targeted at periods with
‘surplus’ generation – i.e. off peak or when wind output exceeds average
- sufficient generation capacity to cope with the projected EV demand
overall in the 2010 and 2020 scenarios.
• National transmission networks should also be sufficient
• any problems of supply should be restricted to pockets within local
distribution systems, especially in cities with high growth in electric car
usage
• A localised high density of plug in EVs has the potential to disrupt the local
distribution system where they charge up, but this would depend on how
clustered the charging points were geographically and the size and timing
of charging demand compared to the load profile for that area.
• As EV charging demand increases (e.g. 2030) - clustering and timing
become more sensitive,
40
Current Electric Vehicle developments
• Further report for Government by Element Energy
• Charging practicalities
• Arup managing user trials of Electric Vehicles in the Midlands
• Smart charging as part of wider Smart Grid initiatives
41
Greater CO2 savings by
charging overnight
Element Energy 2009, Strategies for the uptake of electric vehicles and associated infrastructure implications, Final Report for Committee
on Climate Change, http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/Element_Energy_EV_infrastructure_report_for_CCC_2009_final.pdf.
42
Electric: Public Charging Points
Arup led the West Midlands bid to the Technology Strategy Board’s
competition for Ultra Low Carbon Demonstrator Vehicles
• Consortium of 13 organisations
• Arup as Project Managers
• 6 vehicle manufacturers
• E.ON – electricity supplier
• Birmingham City Council
• Coventry City Council
• 3 universities
• Aston
• Birmingham
• Coventry
44
CABLED – West Midlands Low Emission Demonstrator Programme
45
CABLED – West Midlands Low Emission Demonstrator Programme
• 12 month trial
• 1st vehicles on roads in December 2009
• Remainder through 2010
46
Case Study CABLED – West Midlands Low Emission Demonstrator Programme
• Vehicle development
• User perception
• Demonstrate UK technology
47
Smartgrid – Energy Networks Strategy Group
48
49
50
To Conclude:
Advantages of “incentivised” vehicle charging
• Charging EVs in off peak periods, particularly at night [or when
wind output is high] is an efficient use of the generating sector and by
flattening the daily demand profile will improve generation
efficiency.
• Day or peak charging is less desirable.
• Network charges mainly relate to maximum demand
• So unit cost to all consumers may reduce slightly as relatively fixed
network costs are divided by a greater number of total units.
• “Smart Charging” could provide effective ‘fast reserve’
• National Grid currently pays £220M per year for fast reserve
• E.g. ability to switch off Dinorwig pumping overnight
• “smart charging” could significantly reduce charging cost
• Initial estimate <1p/mile - compared to 3p/mile (elec) or 10p/mile (diesel)
51
We only have one planet…