Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Andreas Constantinou
Michael Vakulenko
Matos Kapetanakis
(c) VisionMobile 2011
Developer
Economics 2010:
Everything on mobile
development
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90% mobile industry insiders
GPLv2 vs GPLv3
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selected
VisionMobile clients
2008-2010
Page Copyright
Copyright VisionMobile
VisionMobile 2011
2007-2010
Mobile Megatrends 2011
The DELL-ification of mobile Software: new era for telecoms Experience ecosystems
How the mobile handset landscape is and the new rules for innovation how telecoms + internet convergence
becoming much like the PC is leading to the next megabrands
Assemblers
razon-thin
margins
wannabee
innovators
wannabee
leaders
Revenue pyramid
performance
pressure Leaders:
new product experiences
Innovators:
incremental innovation
Assemblers:
price razor-thin margins
pressure
Leaders
Role model: Apple
€37.5B 5% @ $500
Innovators
Role model: Samsung
€90B 25% @ $250
Assemblers
Role model: Dell
Mass producers
vi
$200B
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
OEM + Android: winners and losers
No Name
Danger OS
Android Chrome OS
SavaJe OS
PC
Trolltech $30M
A la Mobile
iOS
SKY-MAP MOAP
UIQ TTPCom Ajar OpenMoko
€400
device retail price
connected
Nokia Series 40
phones
Samsung SHP
€100 LG Wise
€50
phones
voice
Note: OSes omitted: Myriad, Mediatek OS, Mango (Qualcomm), Koretide Elastos
Components
Social networks
Cloud services
Developer ecosystem
Network
User interface
Operating system
Hardware IP
Manufacturing
success as
defined in
2010
success as
defined in
2005
dual
stasis ""(# Q,85RQ3??># "'&'''#
personality
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First step “we need to sign an NDA” “we need to download the SDK”
Process Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, Agile: add feature, build, test,
QA repeat
Attitude “developers will come to us” “we need to go to developers”
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The new rules of innovation
1. Speed of innovation defined by internet companies, not hardware / networks
- Companies from the Internet domain (Apple, Google, Facebook) out-innovate companies from the mobile
industry domain (Nokia, Samsung, Sun) and the networks domain (Vodafone, China Mobile)
- Internet players are at top of the food chain and are becoming increasingly assertive
?
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Is the future of convergence?
No more. Leaders
Innovators
Social circle
Developer ecosystem
convergence =
User data roaming
Service roaming x
User interaction design
Industrial design
Brand
Brand Apple
network network
effects effects
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
the future of convergence is experience roaming
convergence = screens + experience
OS vendors
Source: Distimo
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
App stores are about control, not $$$
App Stores are a control point for: and an opportunity for:
- access to applications
e.g. Skype cannot have a video calling app on the iPhone
- distribution of applications
e.g Google uses Android Market to enforce compliance requirements
on Android handsets
- consumer insights
an opportunity to optimise device and service targeting
Genes
Species
Page Copyright
Copyright VisionMobile
VisionMobile 2011
2007-2010
Apps succeed where the web failed
- 2007: voice, text and web was main channel for services
the old school of mobile services: voice, texting, ringtones, televoting, MMS, Mobile TV,..
.. information
- the need to tap into new developer segments from the web domain
1.5 million web developers most of which are new to mobile
Google is now threatened from web silos, app stores and micropayments
- closed web silos (Facebook and Apple’s app store)
- semantic information discovery in app stores (reducing greatly the search complexity)
- app micropayments & NFC (reducing the need for ads)
- Android, MeeGo, Webkit, Qt, Maemo, Eclipse, Linux all use open source
all projects use an open source license for the public source code
dual license
(commercial + copyleft)
Qt
strong copyleft
(GPL)
Linux kernel
weak copyleft
Foundation (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..)
Foundation
WebKit
permissive
(APL, BSD, MIT, ...)
Android
Development
• Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible?
• Is the code contribution and acceptance process clear and accessible?
• Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable?
• Can you identify who the committers to the project are?
• Are the requirements to become a reviewer clear and equitable?
• Can you identify who the reviews to the project are?
• Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a copyright license)
Derivatives
• Are trademarks used to control compliance and use of the project?
• Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained?
Community
• Do different community members have different rights?
Windows
iOS Android BlackBerry Symbian
Phone
Page Copyright
Copyright VisionMobile 2011
VisionMobile 2007-10
The diverse world of software developers
With different business models and incentives
content publishers
Internet service
providers
system
integrators
mobile games
developers
software
houses
independent
developers apps development
software integration agencies
services
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Android has biggest mindshare
“
Android is better than other
-Android has biggest mindshare platforms in terms of tools,
- Symbian/Java down from #1/#2 in 2008 platform features, and it’s
easier to stand out as
- Most developers work on multiple platforms developer.”
The average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers Android developer
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Android 3x easier to learn than Symbian
“
technical considerations are
Commercial above technical reasoning irrelevant, the choice of
-Large market penetration (70% of respondents) is platform is ALWAYS
more important than ability to code & prototype quickly (45%) marketing-driven.”
- Revenue potential (55%) is more relevant than Mobile web developer
“
App Stores minimised
time-to-shelf from 68 days
to 22 days and halved
time-to-payment
* * *
develop,
application platform market retailing & in-life
debug &
planning selection readiness monetisation application use
support
develop,
application platform market retailing & in-life
debug &
planning selection readiness monetisation application use
support
www.visionmobile.com/dev
open until end March 2011.
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