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based on different market structures.

The first underlying hypothesis is that


Structure and Competition a decentralized, competitive market
in the U.S. Home Video Game Industry structure will feature less mainstream
content and less anticompetitive behav-
ior than a maturing concentrated in-
dustry; as games have become a larger,
more rationalized business, more main-
by Dmitri Williams, University of Michigan, USA stream content has begun to predomi-
nate. However, the network effects
present in video game systems create
competitive forces that lessen the
Introduction 1998; Funk 1993; Schutte et al 1988; anticompetitive problems traditionally
Cooper & Mackie; 1986), and growing associated with concentrated indus-
The U.S. home video game industry has interest in uses and gratifications tries. The trends reported here support
developed tremendously over the past (Sherry et al 2001), but almost nothing these hypotheses. Video games are seen
ten years to become a media force rival- on the industry. 2 as a maturing, competitive industry
ing motion picture distribution. In with practices and structure similar to
1999, video games equaled motion pic- This article is patterned after Chan- other media.
tures with domestic revenues of $7.4 Olmstead’s (1991) analysis of the syndi-
billion and the game industry contin- cated television market: it examines This research paper is grounded in the
ues to grow (PC Data 2000; Graser 2000), the rise of the industry and lays out its industrial organization approach, a
with an estimate of $13 billion in 2002 current structure in depth, while also process derived from applied micro-
(Gaudiosi 2001). From 1998 to 2001, the analyzing the resulting competition economic theory that provides a frame-
industry became the fastest growing and the character of the industry as it work for organizing the industry into a
segment of the entertainment industry moves to the mainstream. Drawing on comprehensive whole while maintain-
with a growth rate of 15 to 25 per cent,1 Litman’s (1979) work on the level of di- ing enough flexibility to examine its
employing over 200,000 people (IDSA versity in television programming, unique characteristics. The approach
1999, 2001). Worldwide, video games variations in content are predicted employs the strategy of analyzing the
are expected to hit $30 billion by 2002
(Gaither 2001), with popular online
games in South Korea enjoying a four Abstract
million-strong subscription base
(Levander 2001). Coupled with its role The video game industry has continued to grow dramatically over the past decade,
in the burgeoning online world, the in- cutting into mainstream media in participation and revenues as it becomes part of
dustry has become a significant eco- mainstream media culture. Following the industrial organization model, this paper
nomic player in the American media conceptualizes and systematically analyzes five vertical stages and the key market
environment as game use has skyrock- segments of consoles, handheld and PC-based games. Genre-based measures of con-
eted among users of all ages. Time spent tent show that the different game platforms have varying levels of product diversity,
on games has risen steadily and is ex- driven by differing levels of risk and rewards. Comparisons in production and distri-
pected to climb at the expense of more bution are made with other major media. The main conclusion is that the industry is
traditional media. Communication reaching a mature phase with concentration and integration beginning to be found
scholars have noted that many younger in its stages. A mainstreaming of content is partially countered by a vibrant commu-
users spend more time on video games nity of developers, mostly for PC games. As a standard-based industry, non-
than television (Bloom 1982; Funk & interoperability and network effects continue to play a key role in preserving compe-
Buchman 1996). Nevertheless, at the tition in a field with a shrinking number of firms.
www.mediajournal.org

same time, the business of producing


and distributing video games has gone Dmitri Williams
largely unexamined by scholars. A re- (dcwillia@umich.edu)
view of previous research yields a
healthy body of work on effects, mostly is a Ph.D. Candidate in Communication Studies at the University of Michigan.
focusing on children and violence and His research focuses on media economics and policy, new technologies, and online
gender roles (Dill & Dill 1998; Ander- behavior.
son & Dill 2000; Griffiths 1999; Dietz

© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I : (41 – 54) 41
structural properties of the current sys- study’s main conclusion is that the di- tween the U.S.’ preference for private
tem and the resulting conduct and per- rect result of this structure and history ownership versus the state-owned PTT
formance of the firms, including issues is the steady growth, maturation and media systems typical elsewhere.4 In
of competition and product differentia- competitive nature of the industry, and, 1962 MIT engineering graduate student
tion. The analysis is supplemented by with the exception of a vibrant and cre- Steve Russell programmed Spacewar on
interviews of game company executives, ative development fringe, the general the school’s PDP-1 computer and the
many of which were conducted at the mainstreaming of its game product. game spread quickly to other universi-
industry’s annual E3 trade show in Los This pattern of growth and diffusion is ties where students adapted the pro-
Angeles. The industry’s history is traced seen as similar to many other media gramming language and began to grasp
briefly, followed by a discussion of the where large firms have taken advantage the entertainment and commercial pos-
important differences between the of relaxed ownership restrictions. In the sibilities behind electronic gaming
three major sub-industries: consoles, video game industry, non-interoper- (Poole 2000).5 As the early developers
handheld systems and PC games. Next, ability has kept competition alive. sought capital and support for their
the vertical stages of development, pub- tinkerings, a series of negotiations be-
lishing, manufacturing, distribution A Brief History of Home tween Ralph Baer, consumer products
and retail are systematically analyzed. Video Games manager for the military electronics
Lastly, trends in product differentiation firm Sanders Associates, and giant RCA
and ‘convergence’ are examined. Where The history of home video games is a began (including an initial attempt to
possible and appropriate, the industry history of constant change and innova- use cable systems to operate the games),
is compared to other media. tion, battles over standards, booms and but ended when RCA demanded full
busts. The industry has progressed ownership of the idea. One of the RCA
Video games are a mass medium with through a development stage character- negotiators left the firm and joined
properties similar to several other well- ized by small-scale inventors, and an Magnavox who, in 1972 produced the
studied media, yet are unique in the expansion and legitimization phase Odyssey, the first mass marketed home
mix of these properties (Vogel 1998). based on popular acceptance and the game machine. The Odyssey also intro-
Unlike many other media, video games promise of profitability. It is currently duced the concept of removable media
are not yet driven by a ‘dual product’ in a maturation and diversification components – games in the form of
model (Picard 1989); for most of the in- stage based on the wide variety of preprogrammed instruction sets could
dustry, revenues are not generated by genres and the multiple capabilities be inserted into a larger base machine,
delivering audiences to advertisers.3 promised by the newest generation of and so could play multiple games on
Secondly, unlike other media, video machines. This last stage is made pos- one box. In that same year Nolan
games mostly run on proprietary hard- sible when large-scale sales prove that Bushnell, one of the graduate student
ware, creating important competitive profitable submarkets can be served enthusiasts of Spacewar, founded Atari
pressures on firms; non-interoper- with distribution patterns to suit the and had the first coin-operated success
ability is a crucial competitive factor. emerging genres (O’Donnell 1985); sus- with Pong, an advanced version of
Lastly, the industry’s development cycle tainable profitability became apparent Higginbotham’s original tennis con-
is similar to that of motion pictures, in the late 1980s and increasingly so in cept (Cohen 1984).
and its publishing and distribution the late 1990s.
stages have elements found in both the From this early stage of development,
prerecorded videocassette (see Komiya Like many media industries, the home the industry stumbled with poorly-per-
& Litman 1990) and book publishing video game industry began with hobby- forming home products but began to
industries (see Greco 2000). Much like ists and enthusiasts. Curiously, the first innovate steadily. It wasn’t until the
many media, this industry has come to video game was developed in 1958 in a Atari Pong home game was released in
rely on large-scale successes and is a lab by a government nuclear research 1974 through Sears that the industry
‘hits’ business (see Neuman 1991) – the scientist named Wally Higginbotham began to generate real profits. The
only difference being that instead of who, tired of seeing bored visitors at his popular Atari VCS (Video Computer Sys-
www.mediajournal.org

calling the title a ‘box office smash,’ hit lab’s open house, decided to create a tem) was released in 1977 and initiated
games are ‘killer aps’ (short for killer ap- game of tennis on an oscilloscope the crucial idea that other companies –
plications) or ‘AAA games.’ These are screen (Herman 1997). Higginbotham later called ‘third parties’ – could cre-
titles so desirable that they induce con- never patented the game, and this kept ate games for a proprietary system. Over
sumers to spend several hundred dol- the U.S. government from owning the the next seven years Atari remained
lars on the proprietary machines and initial patent for the industry – yet an- dominant, but sales suffered through
accessories necessary to play them. The other instance of the difference be- mismanagement, and a sequence of

42 © 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I


highly advertised, but poorly designed 1990s. Each firm lost its leadership. 1982): bigger networks have advan-
games (notably ‘E.T.’ and ‘Pac-Man’) The structure that creates the underly- tages, but in this case there was no
(Kent 2000). Figure A visually demon- ing volatility in console video games is regulated standard and no natural
strates the rise, fall and rebirth of the a direct result of technological and monopoly. Instead, competition has
industry. business choices made early on by the f lourished as each firm sought (and
firms. In seeking to create dominant seeks) the greatest network externali-
Atari’s spectacular failure appeared to positions for themselves, each firm re- ties arising from the largest user base.
be the death knell of the entire indus- leased a system incompatible with the Without interoperability, it is difficult
try until the upstart Nintendo company others. This non-interoperability cre- for firms to see each other as anything
revived it by gambling on home systems ated a standard-based industry in besides a threat to their user base, and
again in the mid 1980s (Kent). A host of which there is only room for a small a spirit of cooperation between the
newer, more advanced and attractive number of firms. As a result, games larger players remains unlikely. An-
machines flooded the marketplace over have always been an oligopolistic mar- other important implication of this
the ensuing ten years and new entrants ket at the hardware level. Market share dynamic is that there is only room for
Sega and Sony propelled the home con- itself becomes a crucial resource for a handful of viable console systems.
sole industry to large sales growths in firms that try to seek the greatest in- Despite over 30 console launches be-
the 1990s. Sega briefly grabbed the in- stalled base possible, often by price- tween 1972 and 2001 (NextGeneration
dustry share lead in 1995 (Chronis 1996), undercutting or by preempting the 2000), the market has consistently had
but quickly lost it back to Nintendo, announcements made by rival firms room for only two or three successful
which lost it to the current console in- (Farrell & Saloner 1986). Meanwhile, systems at any one time.
dustry leader, Sony. This pattern of mar- the consumer was (and still is) forced
ket dominance and failure has been a into an all-or-nothing decision when At the same time that the console sys-
familiar one in this volatile industry. purchasing a home machine: buying a tems developed into market maturity,
This is partially due to the structure Fairchild, Magnavox or Atari machine the home computer market was grow-
that evolved and partly due to manage- meant only being able to play that ing, allowing consumers to play more
ment behavior. As each firm became firm’s games and being excluded from complex games on home PCs. The first
dominant, it acquired and then abused others’. Twenty-five years later, the popular home PCs that took advantage
its market power. For Atari, it was an names of the systems have changed to of the early gaming possibilities were
issue of hype, poor quality and unreason- Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, but the Apple Computer’s 1977 Apple II and
able growth expectations. For Nintendo, dynamics remain the same. The net- Commodore’s 1982 Commodore 64. As
it was first a lack of innovation in the work effects are the same as those the 1980s wore on, the IBM-clone PCs
late 1980s and then an abuse of its rela- faced by the early Bell telephone sys- began to dominate the home market.
tionships with developers in the mid tem and its competitors (see Brock With only two major operating systems

Figure 1: U.S. Home Game Sales, 1977 - 2000 (in millions $)

$ 5,654
$ 6,000

$ 5,000
$ 4,000
$ 4,000
$ 3,200
$ 3,000
$ 2,940
$ 2,000
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$ 1,000
$ 100
$0
1977 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

Data Source: Amusement & Music Operators Assoc., Nintendo, PC Data, NPD, Veronis Suhler

© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I 43


Table 1: Market Share by Console Manufactures, 1995 - 1999 (32-bit and faster machines)

Firm 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 * The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is the sum of
the squared market shares for each firm.
Nintendo 0% 31,9 % 42,5 % 61,5 % 28,4 % 26 % Numbers over .18 are typically considered
indicative of a highly concentrated market, .10
Sega 34,7 % 19,1 % 0,5 % – 28,6 % 18 % to .18 is considered moderately concentrated
and < .10 is considered unconcentrated (Litman
Sony 65,2 % 48,9 % 57 % 38,5 % 43 % 55 % **
1998).
H-H Index* 0.546 0.377 0.506 0.526 0.347 0.403
** Includes both PlayStation (41%) and Play-
Station2 (14%).
Source: PC Data and NPD Group

in place by the late 1980s (Microsoft’s boxes and the start of a heated battle centration levels. However, the propri-
DOS and Windows OS, and Apple’s for market share. The big three are ex- etary nature of the systems lessens the
Macintosh OS), game developers were pected to spend almost $1 billion pro- chance for any kind of spirit of coopera-
releasing a large array of titles. moting their boxes in 2001 and 2002. tion to develop between the
oligopolistic firms. Video games are a
Economics of the Industry’s Each firm’s core strategy is based on the standard-based industry, with the ex-
Segments same basic business principle: the pected importance of first-mover advan-
money is in the software because devel- tage, mass acceptance of the product,
Home video games fall into three sepa- opment and manufacturing costs keep and technical innovation (Gallagher &
rate but related market segments. Al- the consoles’ break-even sale price from Park, 2002). The only common interest
though each follows the same vertical most consumers’ price points. Sony’s that manufacturers have is in the
stages (see below), each has unique char- PlayStation2 ($299 at launch) and Sega’s health of the industry, not in each
acteristics that set it apart from the oth- Dreamcast (free after rebate) were the other. Console makers have a disincen-
ers and should be considered individu- first next-generation consoles, and each tive to work together because they are
ally. Not separating these three seg- was sold as a loss leader (Herald News all fighting over the same potential user
ments would give a distorted view of the Service 30 Mar. 2000, p. 56). The incen- base. One firm’s gain in network effects
industry in terms of market share, com- tive to sell units below cost is created by is likely another firm’s loss, so the drive
petition and product. the need for a large installed user base; to acquire those consumers first is all-
since the systems are proprietary, com- consuming. It follows that this struc-
Consoles petition for the hearts and minds of tural antipathy should and has stymied
consumers is fierce. In order to gener- cartel-like behavior. This competitive
Consoles, with their higher profit mar- ate the profits required to compensate structure also means that the high H-H
gins and less diverse game types, repre- for the losses from the console sales, figures shown above are less worrisome
sent the mainstream of the video game manufacturers must have a critical than in other industries.
industry and are marked by oligo- mass of possible users to take advantage
polistic control at the hardware level of significant network effects. This ob- Profits are made on the software side
and software level, and by tremendous stacle is doubly important because it through licensing agreements with de-
competition. Three major manufactur- also applies to attracting a network of velopers and publishers, and through
ers, Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony, cur- developers, none of whom want to pub- contractual obligations to manufacture
rently control the industry, with Sega lish for a system that has few users or is the software using the main firm’s
having recently withdrawn. Each of the likely to perish. plant. Outside game developers who
boxes operates a proprietary system, create games for Sega, Nintendo and
running only software designed specifi- Concentration indices show that the Sony (and presumably Microsoft) pay a
cally for that box. 1999 saw the end of U.S. market benefits when there are per-copy licensing fee that ranges from
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the previous generation of hardware’s more viable firms in the market (see $5-$8 a unit. For each of these three,
lifecycle as the generation of 32- and 64- Table 1). The end of one product’s publishers are also required to manu-
bit machines began to be replaced by lifecycle means an increase in industry facture their products (discs or car-
the next generation of more powerful, concentration to extremely high levels tridges for Nintendo) at the manu-
capable ones able to render extremely until a new product is introduced to facturer’s plant, adding further costs –
realistic and lifelike graphics with take its place. Before Microsoft’s entry, $1-$3 for CDs and up to $20 for
many times more polygons drawn per Sega’s viability had been the key factor Nintendo cartridges.6 Nintendo was
screen. 2001 saw the rollout of these in keeping the industry at lower con- able to leverage developers into such

44 © 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I


Table 2: Market Share by Manufacturer in the Handheld Video Game Industry (Calculated from Annual $ Sales of Hardware)

Firm 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 *

Nintendo 100 % 100 % 77 % 58 % 48 % 53 % 60 % 91 % 100 % 100 % 99 %

Sega – – 23 % 42 % 52 % 47 % 40 % 9% – 0% 0%

NeoGeo – – – – – – – – – – 1%

H-H Index** 1 1 0.646 0.501 0.501 0.510 0.52 0.836 1 1 0.99

Source: Gerard Klauer Mattison & Company * Projection. ** CR2 ’s for all years equal 100 %.

comparably unfavorable arrangements 2000b). However, success in consoles Mario and Pokémon. The latter is a
by wielding considerable market power has historically been the result of estab- ‘killer app’ so killer that it accounted
in the early 1990s; their subsequent loss lishing a large title base for a system’s for four of the top five best-selling
in market share to Sony may be ex- launch through an established net- games in 1999, regardless of platform.
plained by Sony’s ability to grow a sig- work of developers, brand recognition It is unlikely that Nintendo’s hold on
nificantly larger title library through and a ‘killer app.’ These are all barriers the industry will abate anytime soon,
more attractive deals with developers. to entry that the other three major although the large excess profits re-
Indeed, it has been a common pattern players have surmounted, and that will main tempting. Nintendo’s new hand-
for the largest and most successful remain difficult for any new entry, re- held system Game Boy Advance features
firms to either abuse their market gardless of its size. In short, Microsoft e-mail and Web browsing capabilities,
power in negotiating with developers, has the clout, but possibly not the ex- making it a potential competitor for
or to ignore quality standards inter- pertise to compete in this segment Palm Pilot-type systems, although the
nally. It was Nintendo’s conditions for (Schwartz 2000). reverse is also potentially true.
developers that allowed Sega to pass it
in the early 1990s, and Sony to do the Handhelds PC Games
same in the mid 1990s. For Atari in the
early 1980s, it was a reliance on market Handheld video game systems are mar- While consoles represent the main-
power, rather than quality control that keted exclusively to pre-teens, and fea- stream of gaming, the smaller PC mar-
ultimately caused its demise. Had ei- ture simpler games than console or PC ket represents the vanguard of imagi-
ther firm both maintained quality stan- systems. In contrast to the fierce com- native programming, risk taking and
dards and not abused its power in deal- petition of the console industry, the fringe products. The market is growing
ing with developers, either could handheld segment is a near-perfect steadily, but is currently only half as
arguably have maintained its leader- monopoly dominated by Nintendo (see large as the combined console software
ship position. Table 2). The Game Boy, and more re- market (PC Data 2000). Mid-20 per cent
cently the Game Boy Color, have main- growth rates in the late 1990s were fu-
The four majors are further distin- tained Nintendo’s dominance in the eled by the expanding penetration of
guished by their approaches. Sega bet handheld segment through an impres- home PCs and the development of
entirely on its ability to secure a large sive array of barriers to entry and astute innovative and popular software such as
user base in the new generation of con- and fortunate product differentiation. Broderbund’s Myst and Maxis’ SimCity
soles and on online gaming. By early The result is long-term near-perfect series. Industry growth cooled off to its
2001, Sega had been unable to generate market share and annual sales that current level of 12 per cent, and esti-
a critical mass of users and retreated topped $1.2 billion in 1999 (Hutsko mates differ on whether the market
entirely from hardware, restructuring 2000). may be slowing down and stagnating
itself to become a development unit for (Campbell 2000) or will eventually pass
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its rivals (Strom 2001). Nintendo and The barriers to entry are high. Despite console games (Kalorama 2000).
Sony are betting on their popular efforts from Sega in 1992-1996 and a
brands and their ability to generate a recent effort from NeoGeo, the Game The PC game market is populated by
large quantity of titles through strong Boy platform has been able to beat back many of the same players as the console
networks of licensees. Microsoft is bet- rivals with lower costs, an impregnable and handheld segments and operates
ting on its large financial war chest of lineup of developers and distributors similarly, but has different underlying
funds, brand recognition, a faster and a series of successful games that economics and a much different prod-
chipset and market power (Chronis have become franchises on their own, uct. Unlike console games, PC games are

© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I 45


largely free of the proprietary restric- cantly lower versus console games Development
tions that accompany consoles, and since PC games need only CD duplica-
they are also free from the manufactur- tions, a jewel box, instructions and a Production of the games takes place at
ers’ licensing fees; since the architec- box, typically $2-3 total per unit. Break- the development stage in which games
ture for home PCs is open and available even units for high-end PC games are are conceived, created and pro-
to scores of manufacturers, no one com- roughly 90,000 versus 500,000 for li- grammed. This stage – the content – re-
pany has been able to integrate their cense-laden Nintendo games (Forrester). mains the industry’s main strength, al-
firm in both hardware and software to The barriers to entry are also signifi- though the economics for PC devel-
leverage competitors. With the excep- cantly lower for developers. Unlike con- opment are increasingly out of synch
tion of the small, if vibrant, Macintosh, sole development which requires a ‘de- with console development. Games de-
Unix and Linux communities, PCs op- velopment kit,’ typically costing $10 to signed for one platform are often
erate on software produced by the $20 thousand, PC games need only a recoded at lower costs for another, a
Microsoft Corporation. This is espe- capable desktop computer and man- process know as ‘porting.’ Development
cially true for gamers, who predomi- power. This low entry cost has spawned teams used to be mainly independent
nately use Microsoft OS-based comput- countless small operations of varying operations, but have increasingly been
ers. The user base of PC gamers is 70 per levels of competence, and an over- purchased by publishers and distribu-
cent of home computer owners and es- whelming number of titles: In 1998 tors seeking to vertically integrate the
timates place penetration of home PCs there were 4,704 available PC titles development function in-house. How-
at over 40 per cent of the population, versus 44 for the Nintendo 64 and 399 ever, one of the key facets of the U.S.
comparable to console penetration for the PlayStation (NPD Group data). A development industry is the creative
(Forrester 1998). large portion of PC titles have little process, especially in PC games. The
marketing or packaging and are sold ‘small is beautiful’ approach remains
The economic structure of the PC game for under $20 as budget games. the most fruitful, and the most success-
industry differs from that of consoles, ful game designers tend to work and
and so yields different conduct and However, the PC market has also been produce better without interference
performance. There are no licensing hampered by new, non-standardized from a larger corporate structure. Some
fees demanded by manufacturers, and advances in home computers, most no- of the savvier publishers purchase the
development costs are typically lower. tably third-party video cards which developers but leave them largely un-
Average costs for PC development and must be programmed for and tested in- touched operationally. One of the larg-
marketing are $3 – 10 million for high- dividually for each game.7 Many devel- est and most successful publishers, Elec-
end titles, with most of that cost spent opers prefer the stability of the console tronic Arts, has built its success on this
on labor. Manufacturing fees are signifi- platform and its well-defined param- formula by acquiring well-known devel-
eters. PC games frequently release with opers Maxis, Square, Origin and West-
software bugs while console games wood Studios. This small-shop trend is
Figure 2: Five Vertical Stages
almost never do. The reason is that PC responsible for the large number of
of the Video Game Industry
games can be fixed retroactively with titles available on all systems and is
Development
software ‘patches’ while console games partly responsible for the U.S.’s domi-
Development
must be perfect or will be returned. nance over Japan in game software.
More importantly, the margins for Japanese developers usually create
console games are steady and well- games under the auspices of large cor-
Publishing
Publishing known, and so the associated risks for porations (Bossong-Martines 1999).
console game development (see ‘Devel-
opment’ below) are much lower. Development occurs in three ways.
‘First party’ developers are those inter-
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Vertical Stages nal to a publishing organization; this is
of the Industry8 basic upstream vertical integration. For
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example, Nintendo has its own internal


Distribution
The vertical stages of the video game development teams. However, the ma-
Distribution
industry have aspects similar to that of jor manufacturer/publishers cannot
both the pre-recorded video cassette in- supply enough titles for console games
dustry and the book publishing industry. on their own. ‘Second party’ developers
Retail
Retail Overall, there is integration by firms in are those who contract for a publisher
some adjoining stages while others re- to create games for the publisher’s la-
main competitive (see Figure 2). bel; this is effectively vertical integra-

46 © 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I


Table 3: Game Title Economics by Platform, 1997

Platform Title Economics PC Nintendo 64 PlayStation The numbers here illustrate the diversity of the
PC platform and the profitability of the console
# of Titles 4,704 44 399 market.
The 1997 data show a flush Nintendo
Total Sales ($ millions) $ 1,225 $ 1,014 $ 949 as the industry leader before Sony assumed
the console lead.
$ per title (thousands) $ 260 $ 15,844 $ 2,378
* High-end PC games are now costing over
Units per title (thousands) 9,6 256 61 $3 million to develop (IDSA, 1998)

High-end Title Economics

Aggregate development and $ 2+* $5 $5


marketing cost (millions)

Units necessary 90,000 500,000 250,000


to break even

Units penetration of installed


base required to break even 0,02 % 8% 3,5 %

Data: Forrester Research, Inc. and The NPD Group

tion by contract. Lastly, ‘third party’ are known costs such as development titles like Frogger and Who Wants to Be
developers are unaffiliated outside kits for console game creation ($20,000) a Millionaire frequently top the sales
firms that create games for a platform;9 and labor (averaging about $60,000/ charts. Despite these obstacles, PC de-
this involves the often costly licensing year per designer), cost overruns follow velopment still attracts risk-takers and
step discussed above. In terms of inte- a pattern similar to that found in mo- visionaries who continue to balance the
gration, industry sources and online tion picture development: the time and creative need to produce unique prod-
databases (http://www. gamasutra.com) budget goals are often not met. Devel- ucts with the real-world demands to
place about one-half to two-thirds of opment time can range from the turn out a profitable hit.
development as occurring under the flukish (the surprise hit Deer Hunter
ownership of a publisher. took less than a half-year) to the unfore- Publishing
seeable (the flop Stonekeep took over
The standard revenues for developers three years). Technological expectations Publishers are the rights-holders for the
are royalties from publishers. Much like and advances can make the goals a mov- games. Once the game is delivered by a
the book publishing industry, the cre- ing target, frustrating even the best-or- developer (internal or external), the
ator of the product typically works on ganized developers. This year’s techno- publisher is responsible for marketing
advances against future royalties, logical breakthrough may be next the product’s launch and the manufac-
which are paid out based on pre-estab- year’s hackneyed plaything, and if the turing process. As noted above, the
lished progress milestones. Developers game is delayed the consequences can manufacturing process is part of the li-
share few of the risks for the title’s suc- be disastrous.11 Once released, product censing deal when making console
cess, although many publishers reserve lifecycles remain highly variable, and games, and the major three manufac-
some payments in case of later product the unpredictability of consumer tastes turers maintain strict control through
returns and to guarantee against price ads a further risk factor. Importantly, a small number of duplication facili-
protection policies enforced by retailers the rise in game popularity and their ties. PC software duplication is totally
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(see below). Typically, the publisher acceptance by major retailers has added unconcentrated because it means deal-
then acquires the intellectual property to the ‘killer app’ hits-business product ing with CD replicators and commer-
rights for the game and advantageous cycle. High-turnover shelf-space at K- cial printers, of which there are hun-
terms for possible sequels or spin-offs.10 Mart means that a smaller number of dreds.
titles with higher chances of success
The reason for these risk-sharing ar- have begun to predominate the market. Sometimes publishers manage the risk
rangements is the volatile costs associ- Much to the chagrin of the hard-core PC of this stage by half-publishing with an
ated with game creation. While there game designer and player, mainstream ‘affiliated label.’ This is the practice of

© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I 47


taking advantage of another publisher Concentration is rising in the publish- take shape; the movement to consolida-
or distributor’s sales or marketing ex- ing stage (see Table 4). By 1998, the com- tion here parallels that of the prere-
pertise, and it demonstrates the perme- bined H-H index for PC and console pub- corded music distribution business. In
ability found between the publishing lishing had risen from near zero to fact, in many cases the distributors who
and distribution stages. For example, a 10.549. Still, vertical integration re- emerged built their successes on infra-
smaller publisher like Interplay might mains a stronger anti-competitive structures already established for dis-
contract with the larger Activision la- threat (see ‘Distribution,’ below). In con- tributing prerecorded music and video-
bel. Interplay would retain the rights, soles, Sony and Nintendo maintain cassettes. Distributors began to estab-
but would split the profits and dominant market positions, but do not lish exclusive contracts with the major
Activision would promote the game participate in PC publishing. In PC soft- retail chains to be their game supplier
through its better integrated distribu- ware publishers are being merged at a in the early and mid-1990s.
tion system and sales staff. The dis- fast rate, driven by the rising costs of
tributor might even handle the dupli- marketing and development (IDSA The case of GT Interactive is illustrative
cation process. 1998) and by the scale economies and of the industry’s development, concen-
market strengths made possible by tration and deconcentration. GT began
Publishing can be a very high margin larger operations. operations as Good Times Home Video,
business, although there are several a videotape distributor that existed pri-
back-end costs demanded by retailers. Distribution marily as a contractor for the large Wal-
The keys for publishers are strong mar- Mart chain. When GT expanded into
keting and distribution networks, but Distributors are responsible for the the fledgling software business as a
most importantly a salable product. The physical storage and delivery of the publisher in the early 1990s they were
holy grail for publishers is a hit title that product, and usually for the sales effort. fortunate to sign then-unknown devel-
can be sequelled or spun off into related The storage and shipping function is a oper id Software. Two million $40 cop-
hits. For these hit products, margins can very low-margin business. The distribu- ies of the runaway hit Doom later, GT
be very high on both the PC and console tion stage is notable for its role in the found itself approached by Wal-Mart in
sides. EIDOS’ bottom line margin after maturation process of the game indus- 1993. Wal-Mart recognized the indus-
development, duplication, licensing try. In its early years, distribution was try’s potential but had no coordinated
and distribution can run as high as 25 handled by small firms and frequently supply system or expertise to deal with
per cent for a successful title like Tomb by the publishers themselves in a patch- the thousand-or-so publishers in opera-
Raider, now in its fifth iteration. Publish- work structure that allowed for few tion. For the years 1995-1997, GT was
ers who have integrated development simple economies. As the industry be- the only major distributor for Wal-Mart
units or who have integrated via con- came more profitable and increasingly and Target and amassed market power
tract also bear many of the costs in that attractive to mass merchandise stores in and excess profits.13 As a result, com-
segment: development kits, advances the early 1990s (who were themselves petitors arose and retailers also began
against royalties, licensing fees, etc. Pro- becoming more concentrated and to look for alternatives. This spurred the
fessional sports and movie licensing mainstream), the need for coordinated publishers to take on distribution roles
fees can be a significant expense sepa- national distribution arose. Industry more often, and was made possible by
rate from the licensing fee demanded leaders emerged and smaller fish were the consolidation taking place in pub-
by the console manufacturers.12 snapped up as the economies began to lishing. Firms like Activision found that
they could take on the distribution role
Table 4: HH Table for PC Publishing, 1995 - 1999
to reduce costs, but could not always
generate desirable economies of scale
Notes:
with only their own titles, and so took
Year H-H CR4*
H-H Indicies calculated from on the distribution function for rivals
1995 .0752 44 % dollar market share. in the publishing stage. As a direct re-
* The four-firm concentration ratio sult, many distributors became inte-
1996 .0802 49 %
www.mediajournal.org

(CR4) is the combined market grated in publishing and vice-versa,


1997 .0912 52 % share of the top four firms. while independents at both stages are
now forced to rely on competitors for
1998 .0912 52 %
vital functions. Distribution squeezes
1999 .0852 52 % remain a problem for the non-inte-
grated publishers, although this is of-
Data Source: PC Data
ten counterbalanced by pressure from
retailers who (with varying levels of ex-

48 © 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I


Table 5: Retail Market Share by Platform, 1999 tail, most notably in PC software.
Higher-end titles run first at higher
prices in software-dedicated chains like
Console Software PC Software
Electronics Boutique before being dis-
Wal-Mart 19 % Best-Buy 15 %
counted and sold to a more mass-mer-
Toys ‘R Us 15 % CompUSA 14 % chandise market in the larger super-
Best Buy 13 % Wal-Mart 13 % stores. Because the retailers are not
Electronics Boutique Electronics Boutique visibly coordinated, this cannot be con-
11 % 12 %
sidered second-degree price discrimi-
Babbages 8% Babbages 9%
nation.
Target 8% Sam’s Club 4%
KB Toys 5% Toys ‘R Us 3% There are alternative distribution
Funcoland* 4% Costco 2% paths on the horizon. One way to cir-
cumvent the entire distribution and
K-Mart 4% Musicland 2%
the ‘brick and mortar’ retail stage is to
CompUSA 2% All Else 26 % sell directly to consumers online
All Else 11 % through e-commerce. This remains a
CR4 58 % CR-,5 54 % distant, but intriguing possibility for
H-H Index** H-H Index***
this and other industries. Most esti-
.1072 .0871
mates put online sales potential at no
* Merging with Electronics Boutique. *** Unconcentrated. higher than 10 per cent by 2002 (IDSA
** Moderately concentrated.
1998), but this will be an important
outlet to watch, especially for online
Source: Int. Development Group
games. Online shopping has the ben-
efit of no shelf space restrictions and
pertise) can demand hit titles from the lease PC games in smaller boxes to en- wider selection. Another possibility is
distributors. For example, the success- able more product on store shelves and delivery of the games on a pay-per-play
ful developer/publisher EIDOS pub- so to reduce this leverage. Retailers basis through cable systems, an idea
lishes the hit series Tomb Raider but charge publishers significant MDF first attempted by Ralph Baer of Sand-
must rely on GT Interactive – a direct (‘market development funds’) for post- ers Associates in 1968 (Herman, p. 8).
publishing competitor – to distribute its ers, end-of-aisle space, and a host of MediaStation’s ‘SelectPlay’ service
titles to Wal-Mart and other large retail- other devices. 14 Similarly, publishers charges a $9.95 monthly fee for access
ers. This imbalance in integration can are forced to bear the risk of the to a game library supplied by Sierra,
create squeezes and anti-competitive product’s success through a practice Interplay, Disney and GT Interactive,
behavior. known as ‘price protection.’ If a game bypassing the retailer and the physical
sells poorly and copies remain on the media itself entirely (Chronis 2000c).
Retail shelf, the retailer forces the publisher
to bear some of the discounting cost Games and Consumers
The retail stage is notable for the in- (publishers sometimes share this cost
crease in concentration due to the rise with contracted developers as well). As noted earlier, console games repre-
of ‘super stores,’ for the demands Publishers are forced to comply with sent the mainstream of the industry.
placed on publishers and for a these costs and risks because of the Within consoles, the diversity of titles
windowing process similar to that in need to maintain a long-term relation- remains woefully thin. Hotelling’s
motion picture distribution. The U.S. ship with the retailer. (1929) classic theory of centrality and
retail stage is marked by a lack of inde- homogenization in markets is appropri-
pendent software outlets in stark con- There is no integration by any of the ate here: as hit titles generate interest
www.mediajournal.org

trast to many European countries, distributors into the retail stage as yet. in a new game format, competitors
which frequently have a majority of Such integration would represent a sub- copy the format, predictably more ea-
independents. Due to the mass mer- stantial cost savings and a powerful tool ger to split the profits for a sure thing
chandising style of the oligopolistic to use against competitors. than to risk the failure of a more inno-
retailers, shelf space is at a premium vative format that might only appeal to
and so retailers wield considerable le- A natural practice similar to the some smaller group. If an H-H index is
verage over distributors and publish- windowing found in motion picture applied as a measure of title diversity
ers. In 2002, publishers began to re- distribution (Litman 1998) occurs in re- (see Litman 1979 for a similar applica-

© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I 49


tion of the measure in television pro- tems grow older, they expect the con- (Wade 2000). Indeed, over the next
gramming) by genre with six standard tent to do so as well, resulting in con- three years casual gamers will likely
categories, consoles are a much more flicts over the level of sex and violence, double while avid gamers hold con-
predictable platform: consoles mea- social norms and marketing (Russo stant (Forrester).
sure .449 while PCs measure .170 2001; Ritchell 2000).
(based on chart below, data from The Convergence
NPD Group). Product development will also con-
tinue to be driven by two separate types The new features offered by the newest
Product diversity is driven largely by of gamers, the so-called ‘hard core’ or generation of gaming consoles is lead-
demand, and this points out the signifi- ‘avid gamer’ and the more casual user. ing to talk of ‘convergence,’ indicating
cant difference between the console Hard-core gamers expect superior per- that several previously separate func-
and PC platforms. As Forrester Research formance and have generally higher tions will be incorporated into one de-
put it ‘PC and console gamers don’t see standards, and often function as opin- vice. Game machines are one candidate
eye to eye’ (Forrester 1998). Console ion leaders for the marketplace. This to be that box. The new consoles fea-
owners are younger on average and pre- influence may decrease over the next ture internet ports, e-mail capability
fer action games while PC users have few years as the industry becomes and the ability to play both audio CDs
much broader demographics and more profitable and more mainstream and DVD movies.16 Cable hookups are
tastes. The diversity in PC titles is also
made possible by the large number of
firms and low concentration at the de- Figure 3: PC Title Diversity
velopment stage.

The consumer base for home video


games is not the young male one typi- Other 13% Simulation 15%
cally portrayed by the mass media. 54
per cent of console game players and
Sports 15%
69 per cent of PC game players are over
Action 20%
18 (IDSA 1999), and the average PC
game purchaser is now 34 years old,
while the average primary user is 25 Strategy 18%

(Kalorama 2000). As industry surveys Role Playing 19%

become more systematic, developers


have begun to notice an important, but
ignored consumer group: women.
Sales among women increased 38 per
cent in 1999, double the industry’s al-
ready healthy rate (Saltzman 2000). An
astounding 60 per cent of Americans
Figure 4: Console Title Diversity
now say they routinely play computer
or video games, and 43 per cent of this
group are women (IDSA 2000). Wom-
en’s game use comprises an important Other 4% Simulation 1%
part of the growing online gaming
market, where they actually outnum- Sports 21%
ber their male counterparts 53 to 47
per cent by more actively participating Action 63%
Strategy 4%
www.mediajournal.org

in traditional team-based card games


on the large Internet portal sites Role Playing 7%
(Saltzman). 15 It may be that women are
systematically drawn to different types
of games than their male counterparts
(Laber 2001). Also important is the
trend in the maturity of gaming con-
tent. As players raised on gaming sys-

50 © 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I


also possible as gamers seek to take consoles might become more socially has been Sony, which established itself
advantage of the superior bandwidth oriented as they become more net- as an industry leader in the late 1990s,
in their online gaming. The term for worked.17 but continued to innovate and offered
the new consoles is often ‘e-boxes’ reasonable deals to developers. The rea-
(Chronis 2000), or ‘Trojan horse’ be- Discussion son for this difference in behavior is
cause they might be a means to replace unclear. It might be a difference in cor-
non-game boxes in the future. The at- The video game industry is marked by porate culture or the particularities of
traction of the devices is that they will massive growth, volatility and oppor- a management team, as suggested by
cost less than the multiple products tunity. Although the market has Asakura (2000). It might also be a need
they replace. However, there are signifi- clearly evolved from its pioneer days to head off future possible Schumpe-
cant product differentiation problems into a mature, structured industry, the terian ‘gales of creative destruction,’ or
with DVDs and video games. Manufac- underlying dynamic created by non- simply a recognition that excess prof-
turers are confronted with the public interoperability continues to influence its attract new competitors. Further
image of game machines as toys, while the behavior of firms. Viewing the in- study is necessary to test these expla-
the market for DVD players is con- dustry by segment and by vertical stage nations.
sidered older. Mixing the two images is important to understanding leader-
risks confusing buyers or diluting the ship, change and competition. Where- Concentration in the various stages is
image of the boxes. This is an issue of as some areas are vibrant and competi- not as much of an anti-competitive
branding and marketing rather than tive – as exemplified by PC develop- behavior threat as the indices might
functionality. ment and publishing – others are more suggest, although retailers currently
concentrated, as with handhelds. Net- wield considerable leverage over pub-
With broadband ports in the back of work effects play the most crucial role lishers. However, vertical integration
game machines, consoles become a po- of all in video games, creating competi- remains a barrier to new entry through
tential convergence box and also open tive pressures, but also in creating a the development, publishing and dis-
up a realm of gaming previously re- smaller, more oligopolistic market. Be- tribution stages, and is an obvious tool
strained to network-enabled computer cause there is only room for a few sys- for anti-competitive practices. Further
gamers. Online gaming options will tems, firms have been forced to push integration may still come from within
likely increase as ISP penetration in- for the largest installed base possible, the current industry or from outside.
creases and as broadband subscrip- hoping to reach the ‘tipping point’ at
tions continue to grow, and it repre- which their system dominates the mar- After the initial crash of the video game
sents an interesting form of mass me- ket and the others are forced out. These market in the early 1980s, the large
dia previously unseen (Chick 2000). pressures have a dual effect. First, they media conglomerates stayed away from
While traditional media have taken the encourage new firms, firms starting a the gaming industry (Kent 2000;
form of one point to many or point-to- new product lifecycle, or firms locked Herman 1997), but this cannot last.
point communication, online virtual in a standards battle to innovate. Sec- Whereas Warner Communications suf-
communities represent an entirely new ond, the entry barrier created by an ex- fered greatly when its Atari subsidiary
and unstudied paradigm. The past four isting dominant network has inevita- failed, video games are now 15 years
years have seen the emergence of a new bly caused the leading firm to abuse its older and a much larger and more
kind of mass medium, known as ‘mas- market power with consumers down- stable industry with a much broader
sively multiplayer games.’ Literally hun- stream and developers upstream. This user base. Corporate history aside, con-
dreds of thousands of players can play has typically manifested itself in poor glomerates like AOL/Time Warner or
in a virtual gaming world with each quality products, or with unreasonable Disney would be able to gain consider-
other in increasingly interactive fash- contract offers for developers – a group able synergies through gaming acquisi-
ion. Korean players number literally in traditionally too unconcentrated to tions. Not only could these giants verti-
the millions for the most popular wield any counteringvailing market cally integrate through every stage of
MMP’s there (Levander 2001). The better power. However, such behavior has also the industry, there are clear cross-pro-
www.mediajournal.org

known U.S. titles of this innovative inevitably lead to either new entry into motional gains to be made with their
format are Everquest, Asheron’s Call the market, or to the demise of the movie and television properties. Also, as
and Ultima Online, and titles based on firm due to its own incompetence. The the future of media moves into an
the Star Wars franchise, and warring former happened to Nintendo in the online world, games represent one of
nation-states (Sovereign) are in develop- late 1980s with Sega and again in the the leading and most valuable types of
ment. The small, but growing success mid 1990s with Sony. The latter hap- content available: gaming sites have
of these multiplayer-oriented titles sug- pened to Atari in the early 1980s. The risen from 1 to 8 per cent of e-commerce
gests that the new broadband-enabled only exception to this pattern thus far referrals (Stellin 2000).

© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I 51


Without a dominant industry standard, reproduction is 334611, software stores the intellectual property rights remain with the
change remains the rule, even as the are 443120, software wholesalers are developer. Bonding arrangements are new to the
market’s total size continues to expand 421430, and game machine manufac- industry. A publisher agrees to pay a developer
at dramatic rates. As the first genera- turing (includes coin ops) is 339932. upon completion but a third party bonding
tions raised on Atari and Magnavox sys- agent guarantees a bank loan to the developer.
tems enter their 30s and 40s and con- Again, because the publisher assumes less risk,
tinue to play games, video games have Endnotes intellectual property rights are more likely to
begun to emerge from their adolescent remain with the developer.
stereotype and into the mainstream. 1 For reference, the annual growth from 1995-2000 11 Developer Outrage Entertainment is representa-
Further research into all aspects of gam- for computer and video game software publish- tive of the increasing costs and expectations of
ing are therefore called for. With the ing was 17.4%. It was 9.2% for motion pictures, development. While development of a similar
exception of a growing body of social 8.5% for video tape rental, 10.9% for professional game might have cost $100-200,000 about 10
science research chronicling the effects sports and 6.4% for consumer electronics (ISDA years ago, the 1992 title Descent cost $250-
of game violence, academia has largely 2001). 300,000. 1995’s Descent 2 cost $500,000, and
ignored this booming and vital new 2 See Vogel (1998) and Gallagher & Park (2002) for 1999’s Descent 3 cost a little over $2 million.
mass medium. And yet even this effects exceptions. 12
Licensing fees paid to movie studios or sport
work is mostly uninformed with re- 3
Online games operated by major internet portals leagues are a separate category and are present
gards to content – video games are as- like Yahoo! would be an exception in that the in all of the game publishing segments. Elec-
sumed violent to some degree without portals generate revenues from traffic and click- tronic Arts reportedly paid $100 million to FIFA
an understanding of the different types through referrals to e-commerce sites. for the international licensing rights to FIFA-en-
of content, or an agreed-upon typology 4 This is a pattern similar to that of the telegraph, dorsed soccer games.
for genre or playing style. The which inventor Samuel Morse pleaded the gov- 13
GT executives would not release this data, but
generalizability of the results is often ernment to buy out, but which was rejected by confirmed the analysis.
misinterpreted to mean that the major- skeptical senators as a psychic’s device. See 14
These devices include: ‘Shelf talkers,’ small cut-
ity of gamers are playing first-person Czitrom (1982, p. 21-22) for a discussion. out signs on the shelf next to the games;
shooters (see Figures 2 and 3 above). One 5
This game also represented the introduction of ‘endcaps,’ the term for end-of-aisle space; ban-
would scarcely imagine a study on the the idea of an open source code in gaming. ners, and counter-top boxes (Campbell 2000).
effects of television without a better 6
Sony has one CD manufacturing plant that also Also, promotional demo videos shown on the
understanding of what kinds of televi- makes Sony’s music CDs, Nintendo has one plant retailer’s floor, and even the cost of publishing
sion there are or how popular each type and Sega operates a network of four plants. the games in the retailer’s flyers are expenses
is among which groups. Indeed, a basic 7
These cards add functionality to an existing com- charged to the publisher.
typology of content and the develop- puter and are usually installed by the user. A 15
Although the preteen market for girls is pre-
ment of content scales should be a graphics card handles the complex rendering of dominated by Barbie titles, a growing segment
research priority. polygons on the screen, enabling the CPU to de- of female gamers are using more male-gendered
vote its power to non-graphic functions. Faster action titles (Saltzman, p. 32).
When previous media emerged, aca- cards mean both smoother game play and a 16
Many games already incorporate video sequences
demics played an important role in sharper image with more detail. The recent that require MPEG-2 compression, the same stan-
making sense of the industry and in- merger of the top two graphics card firms, nVidia dard used in DVD movies.
forming policy, and also in providing and 3dfx, might standardize this feature 17 Ultima Online and Everquest feature complex
an important gateway between the (PCGamer 2001). economies, occupations and guilds, clan war-
public and the industry (Preston 2000). 8
Information in this section is based on a series fare, Shakespearean plays and even weddings
We have a responsibility to do so again. of interviews with game developers, publishing between players.
The good news is that there is a dizzy- executives, retailers, and analysts.
ing set of opportunities for research, on 9
Following the Nintendo example, there are cur-
both the economic and social fronts. rently sixty-seven licensee companies producing
games for the Nintendo 64 for the forthcoming
Note
www.mediajournal.org

Gamecube system (www.nintendo.com). 82 per


cent of the PlayStation titles released in 1999
The older SIC codes for software do not were published by Sony licensees (Toyama 2000).
differentiate for video games. 7372 is 10
Two interesting risk-sharing variations on the
the code for home-use software pub- standard royalty system are ‘co-publishing’ and
lishing and reproduction. The newer bonding arrangements. Co-publishers involve a
NAICS codes are more specific. Pack- publisher paying for a project’s development ex-
aged software publishing is 511510, penses upon completion of contracted terms and

52 © 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I


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