Professional Documents
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© 2002 – JMM – The International Journal on Media Management – Vol. 4 – No. I : (41 – 54) 41
structural properties of the current sys- study’s main conclusion is that the di- tween the U.S.’ preference for private
tem and the resulting conduct and per- rect result of this structure and history ownership versus the state-owned PTT
formance of the firms, including issues is the steady growth, maturation and media systems typical elsewhere.4 In
of competition and product differentia- competitive nature of the industry, and, 1962 MIT engineering graduate student
tion. The analysis is supplemented by with the exception of a vibrant and cre- Steve Russell programmed Spacewar on
interviews of game company executives, ative development fringe, the general the school’s PDP-1 computer and the
many of which were conducted at the mainstreaming of its game product. game spread quickly to other universi-
industry’s annual E3 trade show in Los This pattern of growth and diffusion is ties where students adapted the pro-
Angeles. The industry’s history is traced seen as similar to many other media gramming language and began to grasp
briefly, followed by a discussion of the where large firms have taken advantage the entertainment and commercial pos-
important differences between the of relaxed ownership restrictions. In the sibilities behind electronic gaming
three major sub-industries: consoles, video game industry, non-interoper- (Poole 2000).5 As the early developers
handheld systems and PC games. Next, ability has kept competition alive. sought capital and support for their
the vertical stages of development, pub- tinkerings, a series of negotiations be-
lishing, manufacturing, distribution A Brief History of Home tween Ralph Baer, consumer products
and retail are systematically analyzed. Video Games manager for the military electronics
Lastly, trends in product differentiation firm Sanders Associates, and giant RCA
and ‘convergence’ are examined. Where The history of home video games is a began (including an initial attempt to
possible and appropriate, the industry history of constant change and innova- use cable systems to operate the games),
is compared to other media. tion, battles over standards, booms and but ended when RCA demanded full
busts. The industry has progressed ownership of the idea. One of the RCA
Video games are a mass medium with through a development stage character- negotiators left the firm and joined
properties similar to several other well- ized by small-scale inventors, and an Magnavox who, in 1972 produced the
studied media, yet are unique in the expansion and legitimization phase Odyssey, the first mass marketed home
mix of these properties (Vogel 1998). based on popular acceptance and the game machine. The Odyssey also intro-
Unlike many other media, video games promise of profitability. It is currently duced the concept of removable media
are not yet driven by a ‘dual product’ in a maturation and diversification components – games in the form of
model (Picard 1989); for most of the in- stage based on the wide variety of preprogrammed instruction sets could
dustry, revenues are not generated by genres and the multiple capabilities be inserted into a larger base machine,
delivering audiences to advertisers.3 promised by the newest generation of and so could play multiple games on
Secondly, unlike other media, video machines. This last stage is made pos- one box. In that same year Nolan
games mostly run on proprietary hard- sible when large-scale sales prove that Bushnell, one of the graduate student
ware, creating important competitive profitable submarkets can be served enthusiasts of Spacewar, founded Atari
pressures on firms; non-interoper- with distribution patterns to suit the and had the first coin-operated success
ability is a crucial competitive factor. emerging genres (O’Donnell 1985); sus- with Pong, an advanced version of
Lastly, the industry’s development cycle tainable profitability became apparent Higginbotham’s original tennis con-
is similar to that of motion pictures, in the late 1980s and increasingly so in cept (Cohen 1984).
and its publishing and distribution the late 1990s.
stages have elements found in both the From this early stage of development,
prerecorded videocassette (see Komiya Like many media industries, the home the industry stumbled with poorly-per-
& Litman 1990) and book publishing video game industry began with hobby- forming home products but began to
industries (see Greco 2000). Much like ists and enthusiasts. Curiously, the first innovate steadily. It wasn’t until the
many media, this industry has come to video game was developed in 1958 in a Atari Pong home game was released in
rely on large-scale successes and is a lab by a government nuclear research 1974 through Sears that the industry
‘hits’ business (see Neuman 1991) – the scientist named Wally Higginbotham began to generate real profits. The
only difference being that instead of who, tired of seeing bored visitors at his popular Atari VCS (Video Computer Sys-
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calling the title a ‘box office smash,’ hit lab’s open house, decided to create a tem) was released in 1977 and initiated
games are ‘killer aps’ (short for killer ap- game of tennis on an oscilloscope the crucial idea that other companies –
plications) or ‘AAA games.’ These are screen (Herman 1997). Higginbotham later called ‘third parties’ – could cre-
titles so desirable that they induce con- never patented the game, and this kept ate games for a proprietary system. Over
sumers to spend several hundred dol- the U.S. government from owning the the next seven years Atari remained
lars on the proprietary machines and initial patent for the industry – yet an- dominant, but sales suffered through
accessories necessary to play them. The other instance of the difference be- mismanagement, and a sequence of
$ 5,654
$ 6,000
$ 5,000
$ 4,000
$ 4,000
$ 3,200
$ 3,000
$ 2,940
$ 2,000
www.mediajournal.org
$ 1,000
$ 100
$0
1977 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Data Source: Amusement & Music Operators Assoc., Nintendo, PC Data, NPD, Veronis Suhler
Firm 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 * The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is the sum of
the squared market shares for each firm.
Nintendo 0% 31,9 % 42,5 % 61,5 % 28,4 % 26 % Numbers over .18 are typically considered
indicative of a highly concentrated market, .10
Sega 34,7 % 19,1 % 0,5 % – 28,6 % 18 % to .18 is considered moderately concentrated
and < .10 is considered unconcentrated (Litman
Sony 65,2 % 48,9 % 57 % 38,5 % 43 % 55 % **
1998).
H-H Index* 0.546 0.377 0.506 0.526 0.347 0.403
** Includes both PlayStation (41%) and Play-
Station2 (14%).
Source: PC Data and NPD Group
in place by the late 1980s (Microsoft’s boxes and the start of a heated battle centration levels. However, the propri-
DOS and Windows OS, and Apple’s for market share. The big three are ex- etary nature of the systems lessens the
Macintosh OS), game developers were pected to spend almost $1 billion pro- chance for any kind of spirit of coopera-
releasing a large array of titles. moting their boxes in 2001 and 2002. tion to develop between the
oligopolistic firms. Video games are a
Economics of the Industry’s Each firm’s core strategy is based on the standard-based industry, with the ex-
Segments same basic business principle: the pected importance of first-mover advan-
money is in the software because devel- tage, mass acceptance of the product,
Home video games fall into three sepa- opment and manufacturing costs keep and technical innovation (Gallagher &
rate but related market segments. Al- the consoles’ break-even sale price from Park, 2002). The only common interest
though each follows the same vertical most consumers’ price points. Sony’s that manufacturers have is in the
stages (see below), each has unique char- PlayStation2 ($299 at launch) and Sega’s health of the industry, not in each
acteristics that set it apart from the oth- Dreamcast (free after rebate) were the other. Console makers have a disincen-
ers and should be considered individu- first next-generation consoles, and each tive to work together because they are
ally. Not separating these three seg- was sold as a loss leader (Herald News all fighting over the same potential user
ments would give a distorted view of the Service 30 Mar. 2000, p. 56). The incen- base. One firm’s gain in network effects
industry in terms of market share, com- tive to sell units below cost is created by is likely another firm’s loss, so the drive
petition and product. the need for a large installed user base; to acquire those consumers first is all-
since the systems are proprietary, com- consuming. It follows that this struc-
Consoles petition for the hearts and minds of tural antipathy should and has stymied
consumers is fierce. In order to gener- cartel-like behavior. This competitive
Consoles, with their higher profit mar- ate the profits required to compensate structure also means that the high H-H
gins and less diverse game types, repre- for the losses from the console sales, figures shown above are less worrisome
sent the mainstream of the video game manufacturers must have a critical than in other industries.
industry and are marked by oligo- mass of possible users to take advantage
polistic control at the hardware level of significant network effects. This ob- Profits are made on the software side
and software level, and by tremendous stacle is doubly important because it through licensing agreements with de-
competition. Three major manufactur- also applies to attracting a network of velopers and publishers, and through
ers, Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony, cur- developers, none of whom want to pub- contractual obligations to manufacture
rently control the industry, with Sega lish for a system that has few users or is the software using the main firm’s
having recently withdrawn. Each of the likely to perish. plant. Outside game developers who
boxes operates a proprietary system, create games for Sega, Nintendo and
running only software designed specifi- Concentration indices show that the Sony (and presumably Microsoft) pay a
cally for that box. 1999 saw the end of U.S. market benefits when there are per-copy licensing fee that ranges from
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the previous generation of hardware’s more viable firms in the market (see $5-$8 a unit. For each of these three,
lifecycle as the generation of 32- and 64- Table 1). The end of one product’s publishers are also required to manu-
bit machines began to be replaced by lifecycle means an increase in industry facture their products (discs or car-
the next generation of more powerful, concentration to extremely high levels tridges for Nintendo) at the manu-
capable ones able to render extremely until a new product is introduced to facturer’s plant, adding further costs –
realistic and lifelike graphics with take its place. Before Microsoft’s entry, $1-$3 for CDs and up to $20 for
many times more polygons drawn per Sega’s viability had been the key factor Nintendo cartridges.6 Nintendo was
screen. 2001 saw the rollout of these in keeping the industry at lower con- able to leverage developers into such
Firm 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 *
Sega – – 23 % 42 % 52 % 47 % 40 % 9% – 0% 0%
NeoGeo – – – – – – – – – – 1%
Source: Gerard Klauer Mattison & Company * Projection. ** CR2 ’s for all years equal 100 %.
comparably unfavorable arrangements 2000b). However, success in consoles Mario and Pokémon. The latter is a
by wielding considerable market power has historically been the result of estab- ‘killer app’ so killer that it accounted
in the early 1990s; their subsequent loss lishing a large title base for a system’s for four of the top five best-selling
in market share to Sony may be ex- launch through an established net- games in 1999, regardless of platform.
plained by Sony’s ability to grow a sig- work of developers, brand recognition It is unlikely that Nintendo’s hold on
nificantly larger title library through and a ‘killer app.’ These are all barriers the industry will abate anytime soon,
more attractive deals with developers. to entry that the other three major although the large excess profits re-
Indeed, it has been a common pattern players have surmounted, and that will main tempting. Nintendo’s new hand-
for the largest and most successful remain difficult for any new entry, re- held system Game Boy Advance features
firms to either abuse their market gardless of its size. In short, Microsoft e-mail and Web browsing capabilities,
power in negotiating with developers, has the clout, but possibly not the ex- making it a potential competitor for
or to ignore quality standards inter- pertise to compete in this segment Palm Pilot-type systems, although the
nally. It was Nintendo’s conditions for (Schwartz 2000). reverse is also potentially true.
developers that allowed Sega to pass it
in the early 1990s, and Sony to do the Handhelds PC Games
same in the mid 1990s. For Atari in the
early 1980s, it was a reliance on market Handheld video game systems are mar- While consoles represent the main-
power, rather than quality control that keted exclusively to pre-teens, and fea- stream of gaming, the smaller PC mar-
ultimately caused its demise. Had ei- ture simpler games than console or PC ket represents the vanguard of imagi-
ther firm both maintained quality stan- systems. In contrast to the fierce com- native programming, risk taking and
dards and not abused its power in deal- petition of the console industry, the fringe products. The market is growing
ing with developers, either could handheld segment is a near-perfect steadily, but is currently only half as
arguably have maintained its leader- monopoly dominated by Nintendo (see large as the combined console software
ship position. Table 2). The Game Boy, and more re- market (PC Data 2000). Mid-20 per cent
cently the Game Boy Color, have main- growth rates in the late 1990s were fu-
The four majors are further distin- tained Nintendo’s dominance in the eled by the expanding penetration of
guished by their approaches. Sega bet handheld segment through an impres- home PCs and the development of
entirely on its ability to secure a large sive array of barriers to entry and astute innovative and popular software such as
user base in the new generation of con- and fortunate product differentiation. Broderbund’s Myst and Maxis’ SimCity
soles and on online gaming. By early The result is long-term near-perfect series. Industry growth cooled off to its
2001, Sega had been unable to generate market share and annual sales that current level of 12 per cent, and esti-
a critical mass of users and retreated topped $1.2 billion in 1999 (Hutsko mates differ on whether the market
entirely from hardware, restructuring 2000). may be slowing down and stagnating
itself to become a development unit for (Campbell 2000) or will eventually pass
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its rivals (Strom 2001). Nintendo and The barriers to entry are high. Despite console games (Kalorama 2000).
Sony are betting on their popular efforts from Sega in 1992-1996 and a
brands and their ability to generate a recent effort from NeoGeo, the Game The PC game market is populated by
large quantity of titles through strong Boy platform has been able to beat back many of the same players as the console
networks of licensees. Microsoft is bet- rivals with lower costs, an impregnable and handheld segments and operates
ting on its large financial war chest of lineup of developers and distributors similarly, but has different underlying
funds, brand recognition, a faster and a series of successful games that economics and a much different prod-
chipset and market power (Chronis have become franchises on their own, uct. Unlike console games, PC games are
Platform Title Economics PC Nintendo 64 PlayStation The numbers here illustrate the diversity of the
PC platform and the profitability of the console
# of Titles 4,704 44 399 market.
The 1997 data show a flush Nintendo
Total Sales ($ millions) $ 1,225 $ 1,014 $ 949 as the industry leader before Sony assumed
the console lead.
$ per title (thousands) $ 260 $ 15,844 $ 2,378
* High-end PC games are now costing over
Units per title (thousands) 9,6 256 61 $3 million to develop (IDSA, 1998)
tion by contract. Lastly, ‘third party’ are known costs such as development titles like Frogger and Who Wants to Be
developers are unaffiliated outside kits for console game creation ($20,000) a Millionaire frequently top the sales
firms that create games for a platform;9 and labor (averaging about $60,000/ charts. Despite these obstacles, PC de-
this involves the often costly licensing year per designer), cost overruns follow velopment still attracts risk-takers and
step discussed above. In terms of inte- a pattern similar to that found in mo- visionaries who continue to balance the
gration, industry sources and online tion picture development: the time and creative need to produce unique prod-
databases (http://www. gamasutra.com) budget goals are often not met. Devel- ucts with the real-world demands to
place about one-half to two-thirds of opment time can range from the turn out a profitable hit.
development as occurring under the flukish (the surprise hit Deer Hunter
ownership of a publisher. took less than a half-year) to the unfore- Publishing
seeable (the flop Stonekeep took over
The standard revenues for developers three years). Technological expectations Publishers are the rights-holders for the
are royalties from publishers. Much like and advances can make the goals a mov- games. Once the game is delivered by a
the book publishing industry, the cre- ing target, frustrating even the best-or- developer (internal or external), the
ator of the product typically works on ganized developers. This year’s techno- publisher is responsible for marketing
advances against future royalties, logical breakthrough may be next the product’s launch and the manufac-
which are paid out based on pre-estab- year’s hackneyed plaything, and if the turing process. As noted above, the
lished progress milestones. Developers game is delayed the consequences can manufacturing process is part of the li-
share few of the risks for the title’s suc- be disastrous.11 Once released, product censing deal when making console
cess, although many publishers reserve lifecycles remain highly variable, and games, and the major three manufac-
some payments in case of later product the unpredictability of consumer tastes turers maintain strict control through
returns and to guarantee against price ads a further risk factor. Importantly, a small number of duplication facili-
protection policies enforced by retailers the rise in game popularity and their ties. PC software duplication is totally
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(see below). Typically, the publisher acceptance by major retailers has added unconcentrated because it means deal-
then acquires the intellectual property to the ‘killer app’ hits-business product ing with CD replicators and commer-
rights for the game and advantageous cycle. High-turnover shelf-space at K- cial printers, of which there are hun-
terms for possible sequels or spin-offs.10 Mart means that a smaller number of dreds.
titles with higher chances of success
The reason for these risk-sharing ar- have begun to predominate the market. Sometimes publishers manage the risk
rangements is the volatile costs associ- Much to the chagrin of the hard-core PC of this stage by half-publishing with an
ated with game creation. While there game designer and player, mainstream ‘affiliated label.’ This is the practice of
trast to many European countries, distributors into the retail stage as yet. in a new game format, competitors
which frequently have a majority of Such integration would represent a sub- copy the format, predictably more ea-
independents. Due to the mass mer- stantial cost savings and a powerful tool ger to split the profits for a sure thing
chandising style of the oligopolistic to use against competitors. than to risk the failure of a more inno-
retailers, shelf space is at a premium vative format that might only appeal to
and so retailers wield considerable le- A natural practice similar to the some smaller group. If an H-H index is
verage over distributors and publish- windowing found in motion picture applied as a measure of title diversity
ers. In 2002, publishers began to re- distribution (Litman 1998) occurs in re- (see Litman 1979 for a similar applica-
known U.S. titles of this innovative inevitably lead to either new entry into motional gains to be made with their
format are Everquest, Asheron’s Call the market, or to the demise of the movie and television properties. Also, as
and Ultima Online, and titles based on firm due to its own incompetence. The the future of media moves into an
the Star Wars franchise, and warring former happened to Nintendo in the online world, games represent one of
nation-states (Sovereign) are in develop- late 1980s with Sega and again in the the leading and most valuable types of
ment. The small, but growing success mid 1990s with Sony. The latter hap- content available: gaming sites have
of these multiplayer-oriented titles sug- pened to Atari in the early 1980s. The risen from 1 to 8 per cent of e-commerce
gests that the new broadband-enabled only exception to this pattern thus far referrals (Stellin 2000).
Chronis, G. 1996, ‘Sega Claims a 1 Forrester Research 1998, ‘Video Games: Union, New Jersey.
Percent Lead in 1995 Combined Video Replay’.
Hotelling, H. 1929, ‘Stability in
Game Market Share’, Video Store, 21
Funk, J.B. 1993, ‘Reevaluating the Competition’, Economic Journal,
Jan. p. 12.
impact of video games’, Clinical vol. 34, Mar., pp. 41-57.
– a. 2000, ‘Games to Rule Set Tops’, Pediatrics, no. 32, pp. 86-90.
Games Business, 1 Mar., p. 1, 8.