Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 2007
Infrastructure
3 December 2007
Grace under fire
BSE Sensex: 19603
The need for scaling up infrastructure investments for sustained economic
growth and the role of the private sector in the same is now well established.
However, challenges of financing, inadequate regulation, land acquisition,
shortage of manpower and equipment as also coordination between the centre
and states remain the key hurdles in realising the estimated infrastructure
investment potential of Rs17.3tn over the next five years. Despite these
challenges, private developers have successfully executed large and complex
projects across sectors. Going forward too, we believe private sector players
have the potential to exploit the huge opportunity and create substantial value for
shareholders on the back of their risk mitigation and execution skills.
A Rs4.2tn infrastructure development opportunity for private players: With
established consensus on stepping up infrastructure development to sustain high
economic growth rates, Rs17.3tn is expected to go into infrastructure creation over the
next five years. Private investments are likely to emerge as a critical source for meeting
the funding requirement, driven by the government’s limited financial resources as
well as an improving external environment for private developers. We estimate private
sector players to invest Rs4.2tn across infrastructure segments over FY08-12.
Salil Desai
salil@idfcsski.com
91-22-66 38 3373
Contents
Investment Argument...................................................................................... 4
Infrastructure opportunity: Lucrative, but challenging .......................................4
Private developers creating value despite challenges ............................................7
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
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INVESTMENT ARGUMENT
Political consensus on infrastructure development is expected to drive
investments of Rs17,289bn in the sector over the next five years. Budgetary
constraints, coupled with an improving external environment, are attracting
private investments into the sector; we expect private players to fund 25%, or
Rs4,246bn, of the total infrastructure potential. However, financing, regulation,
land acquisition, manpower and equipment shortage, and centre-state
coordination are the key impediments in realizing the potential. Nevertheless,
private sector players have risen to these challenges in the past and have
executed a number of large and complex infrastructure projects across
segments on the back of their strong execution and risk management skills.
Consequently, we expect private infrastructure developers to continue
creating significant value for shareholders over the medium term.
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Financing
A large chunk of funds The planned investments of Rs17.3tn in infrastructure development over the next
earmarked for build-up of five years will require huge financial resource mobilization. Of the total funds
infrastructure likely to be
via debt, raising which
required, we estimate Rs9.3tn to be in the form of debt (both direct borrowings
could be a challenge and leverage by private players), and raising such a quantum of debt may prove to
be a challenge.
Regulatory
The sector lacks An independent regulator is the key to attracting and encouraging private
independent regulatory investments in a sector such as infrastructure, where many natural monopolies exist
bodies in most segments
and the monopoly operator is sometimes also the concession awarding authority.
Most infrastructure sectors currently have no independent regulator (railways and
roads); where a regulator exists, it has limited powers (ports) to redress grievances
and resolve disputes for private developers.
There has been considerable progress on reforming the regulatory framework also.
The government, recognizing the need for an independent regulator in each
segment, has drafted a consultation paper on the approach to be adopted towards
the regulation of infrastructure. Regulatory authorities are likely to be formed for
each segment over the next 12-18 months (for example, the Aero Economic
Regulatory Authority).
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Manpower
Demand for an additional Stagnant capacity building in education of construction engineers and skilled civil
60m skilled and unskilled workers, coupled with rising attrition fuelled by attractive opportunities in overseas
workers estimated in
construction sector in the
markets and lucrative alternatives in the domestic market, are expected to severely
next 3-4 years constrain the construction industry over the next five years. A recent study by
ASSOCHAM estimates a demand for 60m additional skilled and unskilled
manpower in the construction industry over the next 3-4 years. With no
announced plans by the government for gearing up the country’s education and
training system to match the growing demand, manpower shortage is expected to
be the key risk to the planned infrastructure rollout over these years.
Equipment shortage
Long delivery timelines for The infrastructure sector has been facing time and cost pressures in acquiring key
equipment pose a tough machineries and construction equipment. Lead times in acquiring equipment have
challenge for developers increased by 2-3 months in the last 2-3 years, while cost of some equipment has
risen by 15-20% over the same period. Going forward, delivery timelines of critical
equipment are likely to come under further pressure as construction spend
accelerates to Rs6.7tn over the next five years. This, we believe, would pose a tough
challenge for infrastructure developers.
Centre-state coordination
Multiple approvals and In infrastructure projects, the concession awarding authority is typically a central
clearances required at government entity, while many clearances and approvals have to be sought from
various levels prolong the
the local state or district government administration. The involvement of both the
gap between award and
execution of a project central and state government creates multiplicity of approvals and clearances
required for a project, which has been a key reason for delays in execution of
infrastructure projects across different sectors. Moreover, coordination between
various government departments is usually missing and local bodies do not always
share the same sense of urgency for execution of the project as the developer does.
This results in a long gap between the project being awarded and commencement
of actual execution.
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
On the manpower front, a large number of engineering colleges, the IITs, the
National Institute of Construction Management and Research (NICMAR) and the
Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) have announced increased student intakes. The
move is expected to ease, to a certain extent, manpower shortage for the
infrastructure and construction sectors.
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
The “4R” framework Re-rating: As a concession makes progress on execution, risk premium for the
comprises re-rating, project falls and its value increases dramatically.
renegotiation, rolling
forward and re-gearing
Renegotiation: Extension or renegotiation of the terms of the concession can create
value for investors.
Rolling forward: As a concession crosses the execution phase and enters the revenue
ramp-up phase, value creation accelerates.
s
l ow
as hf
gc
inin
re ma
f Framework Agreement
Risk
V o
NP
Regearing Renegotiation
Equity
Commitment
Revenues
Extension
Concession life
DECEMBER 2007 8
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
600 225
400 150
200 75
0
0
Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07
DECEMBER 2007 9
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
INFRASTRUCTURE: IN FOCUS
Political consensus has paved the way for creation of the much-needed
infrastructure in India. The sector is estimated to attract investments of
Rs17.3tn in the next five years. Enthused by an improving external
environment, private players have lined up huge investments into the sector.
The development assumes higher relevance in view of the budgetary
constraints on the one hand and a huge opportunity on the other. With the
success of the public private partnership so far, we estimate the private sector
to fund Rs4.2tn, or 25% of the total envisaged investments, into infrastructure
over the next five years.
Political consensus on infrastructure development gaining ground
Renewed policy thrust on After years of neglect, which had resulted in investments into infrastructure
infrastructure development reducing to a trickle, the sector has gained recognition as being critical to sustained
driving investments into
the sector economic growth. Consensus has emerged among political parties across ideologies,
as is evident in the step-up in infrastructure investments by the previous two
governments at the Centre. One example of this is the thrust on the country’s road
network, manifested through the National Highway Development Programme
(NHDP). Despite rising budgetary deficits, and a change of government at the
Centre, the NHDP has been accorded top priority and its scope has been
significantly expanded beyond the Golden Quadrilateral and North-South and
East-West corridors.
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One key aspect of PPP is that it allocates the risks in an infrastructure project to
players that are best qualified for the project. The private sector is assigned the
project risk, for which it is well qualified given its ability to deliver higher cost and
time efficiencies for the development of the project as compared to the
government. On the other hand, the government manages the regulatory
environment, and protects the interests of all entities (government, private players,
public, etc).
Privatisation – pvt.
sector owns the
infrastructure; govt.
acts as regulator
Contracting – govt.
outsources projects
to pvt. Sector but
operates the service
on its own
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Exhibit 7: Funding sources for infrastructure development over the next five years
Source Rs bn
Budgetary grant 5,693
Multi lateral borrowings 1,658
Planned infrastructure
spend of Rs17.3tn to be Market borrowings 4,645
met by public funds, Internal accruals 647
government nominated Sub-total 12,644
entities as also PPP Privatisation/ BOT 4,246
Sub-total 16,890
Funding not tied up 399
Total 17,289
Source: SSKI Research
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
1,350 8.8
900 8.5
450 8.3
0 8.0
FY05 FY06 FY07
Source: RBI
DECEMBER 2007 15
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
In the worst-case scenario, if domestic financial institutions are unable to fund the
entire debt requirement, foreign borrowings can substitute the domestic debt.
Exhibit 9: PPP borrowings to be 32% of total debt funding for infrastructure financing
Source of debt Rs bn % of total
Multilateral borrowings 1,658 18
Domestic debt 4,645 50
PPP borrowings 2,972 32
Total 9,276 100
Source: IDFC – SSKI Research, Plan documents
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
With the limited exception of power and ports (to a certain extent), all segments of
infrastructure lack an independent regulator.
• Indian Railway Board Act, 1905 • Railways act as the operator as well as the regulator.
Rail
• Railways Act 1989 • Investors have no recourse to an independent regulator.
• Tariff Authority for Major Ports (TAMP) has the sole function
of tariff setting.
• Indian Ports Act 1908
Ports • Investors have no recourse to an independent regulator on
• Major Port Trusts Act 1963
other matters such as dispute resolution, performance
standards, consumer protection and competition
DECEMBER 2007 17
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
LAND ACQUISITION
Land acquisition has historically been a critical and sensitive factor in industrial and
infrastructure development in India. The challenges posed in land acquisition stem
from issues such as poor land deeds and records to multiplicity of land acquisition
laws and poor co-ordination between various government agencies. With a number
of large projects facing extreme opposition from landowners, the land acquisition
process has recently acquired critical importance. In many cases, even though the
land is owned by the government, there have been difficulties in using it for
infrastructure projects due to encroachment upon them, typically by unauthorised
slums.
Exhibit 11: Land acquisition issues have delayed a number of large infrastructure projects
Project Location Sector Status
Golden Quadrilateral All-India Infrastructure – Roads ~2% of the GQ still remains incomplete, with land
acquisition problems being one of the main reasons
Dabhol Power Corporation Maharashtra Infrastructure – Power Though the project has been completed, use of force
in land acquisition was the subject of investigations
into human rights violations
Bandra Terminus, Mumbai Maharashtra Infrastructure – Railways Project delayed by many years due to encroachment
by slums on railway property
Mumbai International Airport Maharashtra Infrastructure – Airports Process of clearing encroached land still not
complete
Borivali-Virar Track Quadrupling Maharashtra Infrastructure – Railways Project commissioned in July 2007, 12 years after
the project was first approved
Chemical SEZ, Nandigram West Bengal SEZ Project location proposed to be moved in the face of
violent protests by villagers
POSCO steel plant Orissa Industrial – Metals No work has commenced at the proposed site
Tata Motors Small Car, Singur West Bengal Industrial – Automobile Land acquisition completed, but project activity not
picking up due to continued protests
Source: IDFC SSKI Research
DECEMBER 2007 18
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Minimizing displacement
One of the key objectives of the NRRP 2007 is to avoid, as far as possible, large
scale displacement of people when land is acquired for a project. According to the
policy, projects should be set up on wasteland, degraded land or un-irrigated land.
The policy also states that the acquisition of agricultural land must be kept to the
minimum and acquisition of irrigated and multi-cropped land must be avoided to
the extent possible.
DECEMBER 2007 19
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MANPOWER SHORTAGE
Acute shortage of skilled human resources
Manpower shortage Shortage of manpower for construction, both skilled and unskilled, is one of the
leading to delayed project key risks to the huge infrastructure layout planned over the next five years. The
execution, low productivity
industry has been experiencing acute shortage of skilled workers and engineers over
and poor quality
the past few years, resulting in a relatively higher proportion of unskilled workers in
the manpower pool. This has, in turn, led to slow progress of projects, low
productivity and quality, and thus huge time and cost overruns.
1,500
1,000
500
0
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05P FY06QE FY07RE
Source: RBI
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
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EQUIPMENT
Rising costs and extended delivery schedules
Industry facing time and The high growth in the construction sector witnessed in the past 2-3 years has been
cost related issues in fuelling demand for construction equipment and machinery. Consequently, the
procuring equipment
industry has been facing time and cost related issues in procuring equipment such
as hydraulic mobile cranes, mobile tower cranes, back hoe loaders, soil compactors,
etc from both domestic and foreign manufacturers. Lead times for deliveries have
increased by 2-3 months, while average costs have increased by 15-20% over the
past 2-3 years. Consequently, equipment shortages are proving to be a huge
challenge for infrastructure developers in completing projects on time and within
the estimated budgets.
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CENTRE-STATE COORDINATION
One of the most crucial aspects in infrastructure development has been the
coordination between administrative departments of different levels of government.
This becomes a critical issue when an infrastructure project is sponsored/ awarded
by a central government authority and needs the involvement of the state
government or district level administration.
For example, in case of road BOTs, once the NHAI grants the minimum right of
way for commencement of construction, the MCA specifies that the right of way
for the balance will only be on a ‘best effort’ basis. This may lead to a situation (as
it happens currently, under the old MCA) where the developer has to coordinate
with various agencies for acquiring the right of way, with the NHAI just providing
peripheral support rather than playing an active part.
DECEMBER 2007 24
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Exhibit 14: Project returns highest at concession stage led by higher risks
Project Pre-concession /
Construction Ramp-up Growth Maturity
Stage MOU (Promoter)
HIGH
25-28%
E
Q
U
I 20-22%
T
Y
R 15-18%
E
T
U 12-15%
R
N
S
8-10%
LOW
DECEMBER 2007 25
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Asset value
Cash flow
Rolling forward: As a concession crosses the execution phase and enters the revenue
ramp up phase, value creation accelerates.
DECEMBER 2007 26
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Exhibit 16: The “4R” framework for value creation of development companies
s
flow
ash
gc
a inin
m
f re Framework Agreement
Risk
V o
NP
Regearing Renegotiation
Equity
Commitment
Revenues
Extension
Concession life
Exhibit 17: Private developers have successfully executed projects across sectors
India’s first 6-lane Roads – The Jaipur-Kishangarh Expressway was India’s first 6-lane expressway and
expressway completed despite an untested concession agreement for both the NHAI and the private
ahead of schedule by developers, the project was successfully executed as one of the earliest BOT projects
private developers
in the road sector. With the involvement of private sector participants such as GVK
Group and Larsen & Toubro, the expressway was completed in a record 24
months – six months ahead of schedule.
DECEMBER 2007 27
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Mundra and Pipavav ports Railways – The Mundra Port and the Pipavav Port have executed successful
successfully linked to projects in linking the respective ports to the national rail network, in partnership
national rail network with the Railways. Both the projects are operational and a prime example of
under PPP
successful public-private partnership.
These companies have effectively used the 4R framework for extracting maximum
value from concessions and in turn, driving shareholder returns. Be it re-gearing of
projects road annuity projects, or re-negotiating concession terms, rolling forward
projects on successful execution or re-rating driven by lower risk premiums on
achievement of execution milestones.
600 225
400 150
200 75
0
0
Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07
DECEMBER 2007 28
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THE OPPORTUNITY
With the government’s continued focus on road development, we assess potential
road orders of Rs3,118bn over FY08-12. Apart from the NHDP programme, the
main drivers include construction/ development of state and rural roads, which are
funded by central government and multilateral funding agencies.
DECEMBER 2007 31
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Apart from the NHDP • Under NHDP VII, NHAI has also planned development of ring roads, bye-
programme, the main passes, service roads, etc to enhance the utilization of the highway network. The
drivers include the state entire project is expected to be completed by December 2014 at a cost of
roads and rural roads
Rs118bn.
• Road improvement programmes in various states such as Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh, Gujarat, etc are picking up pace. These roads would be mainly funded
by multilateral agencies or through private participation.
• The government also plans to invest Rs368bn over the next five years,
exclusively in developing rural roads, with the aim to connect all villages.
BOT projects relating to In recent experience, BOT projects relating to roads in India have been funded at a
roads in India typically gearing between 2.5-4.0x. In case of roads with heavy traffic, the gearing has been
have a gearing of 2.5-4.0x as high as 8x also. In case of annuities, gearing has gone up to even 9x, as there is
no risk of traffic with NHAI receivables being the only risk.
With high gearing, the equity contribution in BOT road projects is limited.
Capital grants received by the developer as part of the viability gap funding reduce
the developer’s equity investments even further.
DECEMBER 2007 32
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
20% of project cost The maximum grant provided shall be 20% of the project cost. In case the grant is
provided as maximum inadequate for making a project commercially viable, an additional grant up to a
grant; additional grant of
20% of project cost for
maximum of 20% of the project cost may be given for O&M support after the
O&M support highway has been commissioned.
Concession structure
To encourage and sustain private investments in roads, the government has
formulated an MCA, which spells out the policy and regulatory framework for
development of roads through the BOT route. The key features of the MCA are:
Concession period
The concession period is generally expected to be 20 years, but may vary depending
on the volume of existing and projected traffic for specific projects.
6-laning of highways
The standard 20-year The standard 20-year concession period entails construction of a 4-lane highway
concession period entails and subsequently 6-laning it. However, if within eight years of commissioning of
construction of a 4-lane
the highway, the NHAI is satisfied that the traffic volume and growth does not
highway and subsequently
6-laning it warrant expansion to 6-lanes, it may restrict the period of concession to 12 years.
Similarly, after the 8-year period, the concessionaire has the option to give up its
right to 6-laning the highway, which reduces the concession period to 12 years.
DECEMBER 2007 33
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Construction period
The time required for The time required for construction (typically 24-30 months) is included in the
construction (typically 24- concession period. A concessionaire starts earning revenues from the completion
30 months) included in the date, which gives it an incentive for early completion of construction.
concession period
Focus on output parameters
The technical parameters The technical parameters in the MCA focus on output, rather than construction,
in MCA focus on output, specifications. Given that only the core requirements of design, construction,
rather than construction,
specifications operation and maintenance of the highway are specified, the concessionaire has the
requisite flexibility to evolve and adopt cost-effective designs without
compromising on the quality of service.
Concession fee
The concession fee, given in the exhibit below, is fixed on an ascending revenue-
sharing basis, in line with the cash flow pattern of the project where debt service
obligations would entail substantial outflows in the initial years.
Financial closure
A time limit of 180 days is set for achieving financial closure by the concessionaire.
In the event of failure, the bid security is forfeited.
Toll charges
Toll charges, based on • The toll charges are based on the rates notified by the government.
government-notified rates,
revised to the extent of • The toll charges are revised to the extent of 40% of the variation in the
40% of variation in WPI wholesale price index (WPI).
Obligations of NHAI
• Acquire and hand over possession of at least 40% of the land required for the
project to the concessionaire before financial closure is achieved.
• Obtain all environmental clearances for the project before financial closure is
achieved.
DECEMBER 2007 34
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Substitution
The MCA provides for the concession to be transferred to another company in the
event of failure of the concessionaire to operate the project successfully.
Termination
In the event of termination, the MCA provides for a compulsory buyout by the
NHAI.
RISKS
Traffic
Lower than expected growth in traffic is the key risk borne by the concessionaire.
Given that investments in building the road have to be recovered from toll
revenues, any shortfall in traffic impacts the profitability of the project.
Execution risk
While the new MCA includes the construction period as part of the total
concession period, completing a construction within or before time is a key to
achieving higher profitability.
CHALLENGES
Land acquisition and right of way issues tend to delay projects
Many projects have had Land acquisition and right of way are extremely critical for timely completion of
been affected by delays or road projects. Typically, at the time of a road project award to a private operator,
inability to acquire land
the land acquisition is not 100% complete. If there is any delay in land acquisition,
the project typically gets delayed, which leads to cost escalations. Moreover, if it is
not technically possible to get the land, then the project may get cancelled
altogether. The land delay issues have had delayed completion of NHAI’s marquee
project – the Golden Quadrilateral project, which was 98% complete over 24
months ago and has not yet achieved 100% completion, primarily due to problems
in land acquisitions.
Though MCAs now In order to address the land and right of way issues for road projects, NHAI has
stipulate that projects inserted a clause in the Model Concession Agreement (MCA), which states that a
cannot start before 40% of
project cannot be awarded unless 40% of the land is acquired. However, the MCA
the land is acquired,
delays cannot be ruled out states that the right of way for the balance land will be only on a ‘best effort basis’
by NHAI, and practically the developers may have to co-ordinate the process
themselves, with limited support from the NHAI. In BOT projects, the private
developers do not have any locus standi on land acquisition and with NHAI playing
only a supporting role in acquisition of the balance land, there might be delays in
projects.
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THE OPPORTUNITY
The focus on T&D loss reduction and generating-capacity augmentation would
lead to investments of Rs6,165bn in the segments over the next five years. The
investments would be divided in the ratio of 55:45 between generating-capacity
addition and T&D loss reduction led initiatives.
Exhibit 23: Huge power investments led by increased focus on power reforms
MW Public PPP Total
Generation
Thermal 50,124 1,126 152 1,278
Hydel 15,585 524 139 662
Nuclear 3,160 188 - 188
Sub-total 68,869 1,838 291 2,129
Transmission
National Grid 20,700 524 156 680
Intra-state transmission 472 141 613
Sub-total 20,700 995 298 1,293
Distribution
Sub-transmission & distribution 680 85 765
RGGVY 255 - 255
APDRP 255 - 255
Decentralised Distributed Gen 168 - 168.3
Sub-total 1,358 85 1,443
th
Generation (12 Plan investments)
Thermal 47,225 31 450 482
Hydel 31,734 38 502 539
Nuclear 12,800 279 - 279
Sub-total 91,759 349 952 1,301
Total 4,540 1,625 6,165
Source: IDFC – SSKI Research; Plan Documents
h
• The 11 5-year Plan (2008-2012) targets generation capacity addition of
68,869MW across thermal, hydel and nuclear plants.
Power reforms, capacity • We estimate majority of the capacity addition to be from thermal power plants
additions and measures to (50,124MW over the next five years).
reduce cash losses in
distribution to drive orders • Additions from hydel power plants are picking up pace and are estimated at
15,585MW (Rs662bn) over the next five years.
• The nuclear power plant capacity addition is estimated at 3,160MW, which
would involve an outlay of Rs188bn.
DECEMBER 2007 37
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Some of the key details of PPA based projects are mentioned below:
DECEMBER 2007 38
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Some of the key details of a merchant power based plant are mentioned below:
Some of the key details of hydel based PPA power plants are mentioned below:
DECEMBER 2007 39
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
• All key costs such as interest costs, O&M costs, etc are a pass-through to
customers by way of tariffs.
The developer of the hydel • The concession period for the power plant is generally for 30-40 years.
power plant has to give
12% free power to the state • The upfront premium paid to the respective state electricity boards for the
electricity board rights to set up the plants is the bidding variable. Typically, the premium is paid
in the form of Rs 5m/MW.
Transmission lines
There are plans to create a National Grid with a transmission capacity of
37,000MW over the next 5-7 years, at an estimated outlay of Rs600bn. The
private sector is expected to invest Rs200bn towards this while Power Grid
Corporation (PGCIL) is expected to mobilise the remaining.
Bidding variable
The lowest bidder of the Developers have to bid for the exact transmission charges explicitly for each of the
transmission charges wins years in the concession. The lowest bidder of the transmission charges wins the
the concession
concession.
DECEMBER 2007 40
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
The returns of the projects are not fixed or capped for a developer.
The developer bears the O&M cost as also the interest cost of the transmission
Returns of projects not line project. The cash surplus is the return to the developer.
fixed or capped for a
developer
The developer will transfer the project to PGCIL at zero cost at the end of the
concession period.
Owing to lower risk, equity IRRs in transmission projects are likely to be 16-
20%.
RISKS
Receivables risk
Receivables risk, fuel- This is the key risk for a power plant developer. Typically, state utilities buy out the
availability and execution power from the developer. However, the huge T&D losses may lead to non-
delays – the key risks
payment of the power purchased from the developer.
Availability of fuel
The PPA and returns are based on the premise that the power plant will be always
available for power production. In case the power plant is not available for
production due to lack of availability of fuel, the developer will be unable to
generate returns on the investment of the power plant for that period.
Execution risk
Any delay in timely completion of the project or cost overruns could result in lower
returns for the developer. Execution risk is higher in case of hydel power plant as
the construction period is long and projects are typically located in difficult terrain.
Offtake risk
Offtake of power is the key risk in case of merchant power plants, as there is no
pre-signed agreement with any utility. Consequently, the risk of both offtake and
tariffs is very high. However, considering the huge shortage of power in India, we
do not see merchant power plants saddled with surplus power.
DECEMBER 2007 41
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
CHALLENGES
Securing environment clearances – a time-consuming process
A single window clearance Considering the high amount of pollution from thermal power plants, power
with a time bound projects need to secure environmental clearances before commencement. The
schedule needed to process is quite cumbersome as it requires coordinated effort among various
simplify the process
agencies and government departments. As a result, the time taken to get
environmental clearances can be quite long and can delay project execution. We
believe the process can be simplified and can be made less time consuming by
setting up a single window clearance with a time bound schedule.
At times, before the project is approved or awarded, these issues are not resolved,
which results in delays in implementation of the project as witnessed in the Sardar
Sarovar project, which has been delayed for over a decade due to R&R issues. The
step ahead would require the government to formulate a proper policy on the R&R
issues, which protects the interests of landowners as well as enable speedy
implementation of the project.
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
The availability and pricing of coal and gas has, in the past, been an issue. Certain
power plants, despite being completed, have failed to commence power production
due to fuel unavailability. For example, some gas based power plants in Andhra
Pradesh such as Gautami Power, Vemagiri Power, etc have been non-operational
due to lack of gas supplies. Similarly, despite receiving all the required clearances,
construction of Reliance Power’s Dadri gas plant and NTPC’s Kawas and Gandhar
power plants has not started due to uncertainty on pricing and availability of gas.
Also, coal based power plants witness delays due to coal unavailability.
DECEMBER 2007 43
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
THE OPPORTUNITY
Ports – one of the attractive destinations for private players – are likely to attract
investments worth Rs740bn over the next five years. The investments would go
into augmenting existing port capacities as well as developing greenfield ports. We
believe the majority of the investments for port infrastructure would come from
private players.
350
0
Current Mar-12
• Indian ports are facing huge bottlenecks and require capacity expansion on a
war footing. The current capacity of about 500m tonnes across various ports is
required to ramp up to 1,000m tonnes by 2012 to meet the potential demand.
…of which ~Rs470bn will • The government has rechristened the old Sagarmala project as National
be towards construction of Maritime Development Programme (NMDP), which will execute the entire
new berths, deepening development of the port infrastructure.
channels, rail-road
connectivity etc. At major • Of the total investments of Rs740bn in the ports sector, major ports are
ports expected to invest Rs470bn in construction of new berths (both bulk and
container ports), deepening channels at select ports, equipment and rail and
road connectivity to major ports.
DECEMBER 2007 44
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
CONCESSION STRUCTURE
To encourage and sustain private investments in ports, the government has
formulated a model concession agreement (MCA), which spells out the policy and
regulatory framework for development of ports through the BOT route.
The MCA spells out policy The framework contained in the MCA is applicable to PPPs in building new port
and regulatory framework terminals at the existing ports. With some modifications, it can be applied to
for development of ports
through the BOT route
transfer of existing port terminals from the government/ Port Trust to private
entities. Similarly, with some modifications, it can also be applied to PPPs for
building new ports on BOT basis. The key features of the MCA are:
Concession period
The concession period for BOT projects in ports is generally 30 years but may be
changed in specific projects.
Construction period
The time required for construction (about two years) is included in the concession
period, so as to incentivise early completion.
For example, a shortfall of 10% in the target traffic after 20 years will lead to
extension of the concession period by five years. On the other hand, a reduction of
up to three years is stipulated in the event of higher than expected growth. An
increase of, say, 6% in the target traffic will reduce the concession period by 18
months.
Concession fee
When bidders seek capital The concession fee is fixed at a nominal Re1 per annum for the entire concession
grant from the government period. However, where bidders seek a capital grant from the government / Port
or Port Trust, they have to Trust, they are required to share a portion of revenues with the government / Port
share revenues with
the latter Trust. The revenue share quoted for the initial year is then increased by an
additional 1% for each subsequent year of the concession.
The rationale for an ascending revenue-sharing basis is in line with the cash flow
pattern of the project, where debt service obligations entail substantial outflows in
the initial years.
DECEMBER 2007 45
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Substitution
The MCA provides for the concession to be transferred to another company in the
event of failure of the concessionaire to operate the project successfully.
Termination
In the event of termination, the MCA provides for a compulsory buyout by the
Port Trust/ government.
RISKS
Traffic risk
Lower than expected In all BOT projects, the concessionaire bears the risk of lower than expected
traffic, inability to achieve growth in cargo traffic. Given that investments in building the port have to be
financial closure and recovered from port related revenues, any shortfall in cargo traffic impacts the
delayed execution – the profitability of the project. A shortfall in cargo traffic growth becomes all the more
key risks
critical as the new MCA provides for a reduced concession period in case of a lower
than projected growth in cargo traffic.
Execution risk
The new MCA includes the construction period as part of the total concession
period. Hence, completing the construction within or before the stipulated time is
a key to achieving higher profitability.
DECEMBER 2007 46
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
CHALLENGES
Full-service regulator
A central regulatory body Similar to other infrastructure segments, the port sector too lacks an independent
would ensure similar regulator. Currently, the port authority gives out EPC contracts or concessions and
regulations across ports is also the regulating body for resolving any disputes or overcoming problems.
However, to ensure fair decision making, it is quite necessary to have an
independent regulator. Moreover, minor ports are not regulated by the central
government, but by the respective state governments or authorities. Therefore, a
central regulatory authority governing all ports in the country, ensuring similar
regulations across Indian ports, would aid port development and port users.
Rail-road connectivity
A port’s success depends Good connectivity of a port to the hinterland, through both rail and road for
on its rail and road movement of cargo, enhances the benefits to users, and hence success of a port. As
connectivity to hinterland
rail and road connectivity falls under the ambit of different ministries, i.e. Ministry
of Surface Transport and the Indian Railways respectively, as well as with the
central and the respective state governments, there are quite a few approvals and
sanctions required from various entities. Consequently, getting the requisite
approvals is quite cumbersome and a time consuming process.
In order to ensure that ports are well connected to the hinterland, companies form
a separate SPV for rail and road connectivity, as witnessed in Mundra and Pipavav
ports wherein rail connectivity was done through an SPV with the port operator
and the railways jointly investing in improving the port connectivity by rail. The
initiative of forming JV companies with the central authorities ensures timely
connectivity of the port to the hinterland.
DECEMBER 2007 47
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
However, dredging by the port authority may not be in the same timeline of the
terminal commissioning or there may be delays, which may result in low
profitability (unattractive as large vessels may not berth at the terminal) for the
terminal operator. However, if dredging responsibility lies with the terminal
operator, other terminal operators also benefit from using the same infrastructure.
DECEMBER 2007 48
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
THE OPPORTUNITY
In its effort to upgrade Indian airports to world-class standards, the government is
inviting private participation for the task. After successfully awarding greenfield
airports at Hyderabad and Bangalore and brownfield expansions at Mumbai and
Delhi to private players, the government is expected to increase the pace of PPP
projects in the airports sector over the next five years.
300
Total investment of
Rs349bn proposed in
airports over the next 200
five years
100
0
Metro Airports Greenfield airports * Non-metro Airports North East airports Total
Source: Ministry of Civil Aviation, SSKI Research; * Navi Mumbai, Gr. Noida, Goa, Nagpur and Pune
DECEMBER 2007 49
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CONCESSION STRUCTURE
The government has taken the following initiatives to improve the Indian aviation
infrastructure:
• Amendment of the AAI Act, 1994 to create an effective legal framework for
restructuring existing airports under the AAI and for encouraging private sector
participation in the sector
• Formulation of Airport Infrastructure Policy 1997, including policy for
greenfield airports
A favourable framework • Announcement of various initiatives for private sector participation in airports
being created to promote in the Union Budget
private sector participation
in the aviation sector • Hike in FDI to 49% for Mumbai and Delhi airports, while allowing 74% FDI
in greenfield airports through the automatic route and 100% with permission
• Extended the limited open-sky policy to all foreign airlines
• Private airlines allowed to fly to international destinations
Exclusivity
All existing airports in the city have to be closed as soon as the new greenfield
airport starts commercial operations. Moreover, no new or existing airport will be
allowed to be developed within 150km aerial distance before the 25th anniversary
of the project.
Concession fee
The concession fee for The concession fee for airports has been fixed at 4% of the annual gross revenues of
airports fixed at 4% of the
annual gross revenues of
the airport. However, the fee has been deferred for the first 10 years and becomes
the airport payable in 20 semi-annual instalments from the 11th year of the concession
agreement.
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Commissioning
Commercial operations must begin within 33 months from the date of financial
closure.
Land lease
Land lease payments are decided upfront before the bidding. Typically, the land
lease payments are nominal and there is no upside sharing for government from the
development of the land.
Aeronautical revenues
Aeronautical revenues Aeronautical revenues are based on the cost-recovery principle and aimed at
based on the cost-recovery providing stable revenue streams. Landing and parking charges are collected from
principle; aimed at
providing stable revenues
airlines based on the size and load of each aircraft. Landing charges are collected as
per AAI-defined rates.
The passenger service fees (PSF) are escalated at a certain rate every year.
Moreover, the greenfield airport will charge a user development fee (UDF) per
departing passenger to recover the cost of building the airport. The amount of
UDF is decided upfront by negotiating with the government given that the airport
is a greenfield one.
Commercial revenues
Concessionaires allowed As per the concession agreement, the concessionaires will be allowed to use a
use of certain area of the certain area of the airport land for real estate development such as hotels and
airport land for real estate
business parks. The real estate development has to conform to the local authority
development
development norms.
Commissioning
The concessionaire has to The concessionaire has to take over the existing airport infrastructure by paying a
take over the existing fee to the AAI. The concessionaire, after gaining control of the airport, has to
airport infrastructure by
paying a fee to the AAI complete the master plan for its expansion and refurbishment within six months
and the same has to be approved by the AAI. Commercial operations must begin
within 33 months from the date of financial closure.
Exclusivity
Under the concession agreement, if a new airport is to be awarded within a 150km
radius of the airport during the concession period, the concessionaire would have
the first right of refusal for the airport in a competitive bidding process provided its
bid is in the range of 10% of the winning bid.
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IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Formula for calculating Landing charges are calculated based on a price cap formula, where the target
landing charges is a price revenues are determined by applying an 11.6% weighted average cost of capital
cap formula
(WACC) to the regulatory base (capex or assets) used for aero activities. Further,
operations and maintenance costs pertaining to aero services are added to the target
revenues. The depreciation for regulatory asset base for aero services and the tax is
also added to the target revenues.
In order to arrive at the final target revenues for aero services, 30% of the gross
revenues generated from non-aero assets are subtracted. The resulting revenues are
divided by the projected aircraft movements to arrive at the final landing charges.
The AAI gets 65% of the passenger service fees (PSF) for security expenses and the
remaining 35% goes to the concessionaire.
Commercial revenues
Concessionaires allowed As per the concession agreement, the concessionaires will be allowed to use up to 5-
using up to 5-10% of the 10% of the total land of the airport for real estate development. The real estate
total land of the airport for
real estate development
development has to conform to the relevant development authority rules. For
example, the development norms of DDA have to be followed for the Delhi
Airport.
DECEMBER 2007 52
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Bidding variable
The bidding variable for the brownfield airport concessions is the revenue share
between the concessionaire and AAI.
Revenue sharing details
Concessionaire to share a The concessionaire will be required to share a certain proportion of the annual
certain proportion of projected revenues with the AAI. The revenue share is to be paid in 12 equal
annual projected revenues
with AAI in 12 EMIs
monthly instalments on the first day of each month. If the actual revenue is higher,
then the differential is to be paid on a quarterly basis. Moreover, if the difference is
more than 10%, then an interest at SBI PLR plus 300bp will need to be given to
the government. On the other hand, if the actual revenues are lower, the
government will repay the concessionaire.
RISKS
Traffic risk
Lower-than-expected In all BOT projects, lower than expected growth in traffic is the key risk borne by
traffic and any delay in the concessionaire. As investments in building airports have to be recovered partly
execution of project – the
from the aeronautical revenues, any shortfall in traffic growth will impact the
key risks
profitability of the project.
Execution risk
The concession agreement for airports puts a time limit of 33 months for
commencement of commercial operations of the airport. Consequently,
completing the construction within or before the stipulated time is a key to
achieving higher profitability.
CHALLENGES
Absence of a Model Concession Agreement
The five airports awarded Five airports have been awarded to private players on BOT basis. However, all the
to private players have five airports (Cochin, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Delhi and Mumbai) have a different
different concession
concession structure. Due to lack of standardization, the process for getting
structures
approvals, clearances, processes, etc for each of the project has been longer. In order
to enable faster award and execution of projects, the government has initiated work
on making a model concession agreement for airports.
DECEMBER 2007 53
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
DECEMBER 2007 54
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THE OPPORTUNITY
th
The 11 5-year Plan seeks to address three main issues in provision of water supply,
sanitation & sewerage services in urban and rural areas – i) adequacy ii) equitable
distribution, and iii) per capita provision. The problem of adequacy is particularly
relevant in rural areas and in slums in urban areas. We estimate the government
and private players to spend Rs1,991bn on drinking water supply, sewage
treatment, etc over the next five years.
Exhibit 27: Investments planned in water supply and sanitation (Rs bn)
Drainage, 166
th
• The 11 Plan aims to provide 100% of the population in urban areas with
water supply and has made provisions for spending Rs449bn for the same over
FY08-12. Approximately 50% of the funds required are expected from
budgetary allocations while the remaining will be from a combination of market
and multilateral borrowings.
• The government has also set a target for providing 70% of the urban population
with sewerage and sewage treatment facilities and 30% of the urban population
with low cost sanitation, septic tanks, etc by 31 March 2012. The total
investments envisaged for the purpose are Rs447bn, to be funded out of
budgetary grants of Rs217bn, multilateral borrowings of Rs130bn and market
JNNURM set up to step up
development and borrowings of Rs87bn. The private sector is expected to invest Rs13bn in
expansion of physical sewerage and sewage treatment in urban areas over the next five years.
infrastructure in 63
identified cities • Targets for solid waste management and drainage systems have been set at
100% population coverage in urban areas, with estimated investments of
Rs18bn and Rs166bn respectively.
DECEMBER 2007 55
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
CONCESSION STRUCTURE
Water supply
A retail distributor typically A wholesale distribution agreement is normally between the retail distributor
enters into a 20-25 year (municipal corporations or water boards) and a private player for supplying water.
agreement with the The agreement typically ranges from 20-25 years after construction. The project
concerned body
involves building infrastructure for sourcing water from a far off location and
transporting it to the city. The charges are levied on per gallon or kilolitre basis.
Any cost increases, arising from electricity charges and other variables, are typically
passed on to customers. Gearing in such projects is usually pegged at around 2x.
Waste management
Segment offers huge Waste management has been a neglected subject in India with limited policy focus.
potential with Rs50bn Consequently, private participation in the sector has been extremely low with one-
investments proposed
over the next five years off agreements for waste management in only a few states. However, the segment
offers huge potential with investments of Rs50bn proposed over the next five years
across three segments of waste management:
DECEMBER 2007 56
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
Structure
• The concession agreement is normally with industries, hospitals and municipal
bodies.
• The agreement typically ranges from 5-25 years based on the type of waste to be
managed. Municipal waste management concession periods are typically longer
with an average duration of 20-25 years, while medical waste management
concession periods are shorter at 5-7 years.
• The agreement involves pick up, transportation, processing and disposal of the
Gearing in waste
management projects waste.
stands at 2.0-2.5x • The charges for hazardous and municipal waste management are levied on per
tonne of waste handled, while medical waste management is charged based on
per bed per day basis.
• Key costs such as diesel, chemicals and power are a pass through to clients.
• The charges per tonne or per bed of waste handled are the bidding variable for
winning the project.
• Gearing in such waste management projects stands at 2.0-2.5x.
• Some form of escrow arrangements is in place for concessions involving
municipal bodies.
• Equity IRRs for these projects range from 15-20%.
RISKS
Receivables risk
Developers run the risk of receivables from the municipal bodies, water boards and
Receivables and corporate users. The financial ratings of the municipal bodies and water boards
regulations –the key risk
areas
may not be healthy, and hence developers can run into huge receivables risk.
Regulation risk
Water being a basic necessity, the developer is always at a risk of a change in
regulation in favour of consumers. This can put the developer’s entire investments
at risk.
DECEMBER 2007 57
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
CHALLENGES
The key challenges for the urban infrastructure sector, including water supply and
sanitation and other sub-segments such as MRTS, are discussed below.
DECEMBER 2007 58
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
THE OPPORTUNITY
Poor infrastructure and inadequate safety measures mandate huge investments in
rail infrastructure in terms of laying new tracks, building a dedicated freight
corridor, upgrading the existing tracks and improving safety in rail transportation.
We expect railways to attract investments of Rs2,550bn over FY08-12 from both
budgetary and private resources.
Exhibit 28: Break up of investments in rail safety funds & Rail Vikas Yojana
Metro Rail Projects
7% Rolling stock
DFC
10% 18%
Investment in PSUs
Investment of Rs2,550bn 4%
estimated to flow into
railways sector over
FY08-12
Capacity augmentation
24%
• In the next five years, bulk of the investments in the railways sector would be
made towards improving safety standards. The Railways have created a non-
lapsable Special Railway Safety Fund (SRSF) of Rs300bn for this purpose and
the total investments are expected to be Rs951bn, which will be met from
budgetary allocations, market borrowings and multilateral borrowings.
Upgradation and • The Indian Railways’ (IR) main focus is upgradation and modernization of the
modernization of existing existing network along the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) by electrification, and
network along the GQ a doubling its existing line and passenger terminals. It is also planning to ramp up
priority area
network along the roads, and increase connectivity to ports by doubling lines.
The total investments in capacity augmentation and development over the next
five years are expected to be ~Rs617bn.
Large investments • To meet the growing demand for railway carriages and wagons, large
required for procuring
rolling stock of railway
investments are required in procuring rolling stock. The Indian Railways is
carriages and wagons expected to invest Rs463bn towards the same over the next five years.
DECEMBER 2007 59
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
• The IR is planning to build dedicated freight corridors, i.e. rail lines dedicated
to freight movement, between the four metros over the next 10 years. The
Delhi-Mumbai leg of the DFC has been approved by the government and is
expected to be developed with an investment of Rs255bn over the next five
years.
• In addition to the Indian Railways, various state governments and city
administrations are expected to make investments of Rs170bn in building
metro rails in cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Chennai, etc.
We expect future projects to get funded at higher gearing levels of 6-8x (similar to
road annuities).
IRRs
With fixed and stable cash flows and high gearing levels, equity IRRs in railway
projects tend to be in the range of 15-20%.
Bidding variable
The bidding variable is the revenue the concessionaire needs from the Indian
Railways every six months in order to build and maintain the rail tracks for the
latter’s use.
Concession structure
PPP projects in railways have so far been limited and only two concessions have
been awarded. The broad concession structure in these projects is outlined below:
DECEMBER 2007 60
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
RISKS
Regulatory risk
Regulatory issues and The Indian Railways is the policy maker and regulator as well as the monopoly
single user risk – key
concerns operator. Consequently, in cases of disputes, there is no independent body the
private sector developer can approach for resolution.
CHALLENGES
Requirement of an independent regulator – a must
IR, the monopoly service Railway services is a monopoly of the IR owned by the central government, with all
provider, also the regulator operations and expansions in the possession of the IR. The IR itself plans and
and decision-maker for
awarding segmental
develops the programmes for expansion and builds out the infrastructure for
projects expanding the reach as well as enhancing the capacity of the railways. However, all
the issues of pricing, operations, ownership, expansion, etc are with the IR.
Moreover, when a rail freight corridor is being set up, all the decisions regarding
the same (such as award of contracts, operations, etc) are done by the IR, which
means that there is no independent regulator for the entire process.
DECEMBER 2007 61
IDFC - SSKI INDIA
• India has one of the least irrigated farmlands in the world, mainly due to lack of
irrigation facilities. As a result, the government, under the Bharat Nirman
programme, has set a target of creating additional irrigation potential of 10m
hectares by 2012.
• The government, through various Major and Medium Irrigation (MMI)
th
projects, is planning to create irrigation potential of 9m hectares in the 11 Plan
at a total cost of Rs1,544bn. Bulk of these investments are likely to be funded
from budgetary grants while the remaining will come from market borrowings.
• Additionally, a number of Minor Irrigation projects are planned across the
country to create an irrigation potential of 7m hectares with an investment of
Rs255bn.
• Under the Command Area Development (CAD) schemes, the government
targets to cover about 10m hectares, including development of CCAs
(culturable command areas) and reclamation of waterlogged, saline and alkaline
lands. The total investments under the CAD schemes are expected to be
Rs77bn, to be funded mainly out of budgetary grants of Rs54m.
• Watershed Development is another major focus area of the government over the
next five years, with a proposed investment of Rs205bn.
DECEMBER 2007 62
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GAS: STEPPING ON IT
The outlook for India’s gas distribution infrastructure has improved
considerably in the recent past in the wake of offshore gas discoveries on the
East Coast. These discoveries necessitate laying down of pipelines, which are
the only means of transporting gas, and then creating the last mile
connectivity in the form of city gas distribution networks. The total
investments in the sector are likely to be Rs205bn, expected to be funded
almost entirely by private sector players.
Large gas finds off India’s The total investment towards oil and gas pipelines, LNG terminals and city gas
eastern coast to propel distribution networks is likely to be Rs205bn over the next five years.
investments in gas
distribution • There have been significant discoveries of natural gas on the eastern coast of
India in the past 3-4 years. One of the key discoveries has been by Reliance
Industries (Krishna Godavari Basin), where production is quite distant from the
main consuming centers – the northern and western regions.
• Accordingly, a National Gas Pipeline Grid has been proposed to transfer natural
gas across India from the ports and the production centres to the consumption
points. The total length of the National Grid is likely to be 8,000kms at a cost
of Rs210bn, of which Rs151bn will be invested over FY08-12.
• For last mile connectivity of gas to end users, large investments in developing
city gas distribution networks in various cities is expected to attract investments
of Rs18bn over the next five years.
• On the LNG front, expansion of terminals at Dahej, Dabhol and Kochi is
expected to involve investments of Rs36bn over the next five years.
DECEMBER 2007 63
SSKI INDIA
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