MS Thesis Seminar

Monday June 29, 2009

3:00 pm
Maproom, ES 333

Forecasting Distributions of Warm-Season Precipitation

Associated with 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclones

Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Neil A. Stuart and Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY

The forecasting of heavy precipitation and severe weather associated with warm-season
500-hPa cutoff cyclones is a challenge over the northeastern United States (U.S.). Numerical
weather prediction models have difficulty predicting aspects of the evolution of cutoff cyclones,
such as their deepening or filling rates and tracks. Precipitation distributions can also be a
challenge to predict as forcing for ascent (e.g., vorticity or thermal advections) tends to be
weaker and less widespread than in typical open-wave cyclones. The purpose of this research is
to improve the skill in forecasting cutoff cyclones. The results of this research are intended to
provide forecast methodologies and contribute to increased situational awareness concerning
cutoff cyclones over the northeastern U.S. during the warm season.
This study discusses findings from an in-depth review of 20 warm-season (June–
September) cases of cutoff cyclones passing through the northeastern U.S. This task was
accomplished using the 1.0° GFS analyses (2000–2006 cases) and 0.5° GFS analyses (2007–
2008 cases). Common tropospheric fields and features, including low-level temperature and
moisture, low-level jets, and upper-level jet streaks, were composited along with selected
parameters used in warm-season precipitation forecasting. A total of 45 cutoff cyclone days,
termed storm days, occurring in conjunction with the 20 cutoff cyclone cases over the 2000–
2008 warm seasons were selected for examination. The 45 storm days were examined for
evidence of distinctive synoptic-scale flow patterns in order to stratify the datasets based on the
tilt of the 500-hPa trough and embedded cutoff, termed a cutoff–trough system. Schematic
figures were derived from composites of various tropospheric fields and features for the storm
days that fit into each cutoff–trough system tilt category. Five distinct patterns of lower-,
middle-, and upper-level features were deduced based on 500-hPa cutoff–trough system tilt.
A diagnostic analysis of the 23–25 July 2008 cutoff cyclone was also performed.
Forecast challenges arose from the presence of multiple precipitation modes, including
convective lines/bow echoes, heavy-precipitation supercells, and stratiform rain regions. Severe
weather tended to cluster in regions of cyclonic vorticity advection near surface boundaries in
areas of strong low-level vertical wind shear. Widespread rainfall amounts of 7–9 cm and
extensive flooding was associated with this severe weather in a very moist environment
(precipitable water anomalies were 2–3 standard deviations above normal). Severe weather on
24 July, including an EF2 tornado, was associated with low-level positive equivalent potential
temperature advection and an 850-hPa jet that was 4–5 standard deviations above normal.